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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 29th August 2019, 12:25 AM   #641
Brainster
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Looks like Steyer has failed to make the debates.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/polit...tes/index.html

I offered two possibilities for his poor polling performances up to now which are:

a) lack of name recognition
b) not offering a vision that was attractive to voters

Of course, it could also be:

c) people don’t want the Democratic candidate to be a billionaire

All those suggestions were poo-pooed before, so I would be interested to know what the real reason could have been.
Steyer actually did pretty well, considering that he got into the race late and qualified on the fundraising side, and just missed on the polling side--he needed just one more poll to break his way. I read an interesting article in the WSJ today (paywalled) that talked about the poor return on investment many candidates are getting on their Facebook ads. Snippet from a blog:

Quote:
According to media buyers and campaign staffers responsible for ad buys, it could cost over $100 in Facebook advertising to get a donor to give $1. Reports have even been published were PAC campaign strategies were completely changed after one Facebook push cost it about $279 per email sign-up.
Steyer doesn't need the donations; I suspect he was happy paying $100 for the $1 donors. The problem is that all those Facebook ads apparently did not move the needle enough (or enough times) in the real world.

And it's not really that surprising. I mean, we've already had debates involving a total of 20 candidates, getting their chance to stand out; now we are down to the 10 who survived.

That said, I suspect that the Steyer campaign will be picking up the remnants of any other campaigns dropping out (cya, Kirsten Gillibrand), so he may be able to get his poll numbers up enough to qualify for still later debates.
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Old 29th August 2019, 12:36 AM   #642
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How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
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Old 29th August 2019, 02:28 AM   #643
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going?
Well, I don't think any serious Republican challenge to Trump will materialise...
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Old 29th August 2019, 03:49 AM   #644
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
We're at ten contenders for the third debate. Maaaybe 11 if Steyer can squeak in an extra poll.

I think this debate winnowing has worked out pretty well. It's given the also-rans enough coverage to affect the conversation, then patted them on the head and pushed them back in time for their senate campaigns.
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Old 29th August 2019, 06:18 AM   #645
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Kirsten has dropped out: https://www.vox.com/2019/8/28/207061...-drop-out-2020
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Old 29th August 2019, 06:26 AM   #646
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Steyer actually did pretty well, considering that he got into the race late and qualified on the fundraising side, and just missed on the polling side--he needed just one more poll to break his way. I read an interesting article in the WSJ today (paywalled) that talked about the poor return on investment many candidates are getting on their Facebook ads. Snippet from a blog:



Steyer doesn't need the donations; I suspect he was happy paying $100 for the $1 donors. The problem is that all those Facebook ads apparently did not move the needle enough (or enough times) in the real world.

And it's not really that surprising. I mean, we've already had debates involving a total of 20 candidates, getting their chance to stand out; now we are down to the 10 who survived.

That said, I suspect that the Steyer campaign will be picking up the remnants of any other campaigns dropping out (cya, Kirsten Gillibrand), so he may be able to get his poll numbers up enough to qualify for still later debates.
Yes, he got in late, and that prevented him from either making his name more widely known, or having lost the vote to someone else whose platform was better known or more attractive. I think that when someone has already committed to a candidate, as many voters had by the time Steyer got in the race, it is harder to jump to another candidate.

So, as the field thins out, he may get votes from other candidates. It looks like he can easily fund his campaign as long as he wants to and not being an elected politician there is no downside for him committing himself completely to that goal (elected members of the Democratic Party have their senate or congressional seats to worry about).

But it has also been questioned whether his well-financed campaign against corporate influence in politics is best served by him spending his money on a presidential run. Instead, it has been asked whether or not his money would be better off spend on Senate campaigns, Congressional campaigns or even campaigns further down the ballot in, for example, the types of states that are seeking to ban abortion.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:50 AM   #647
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He missed the debate cutoff, so he's as good as out.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:53 AM   #648
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
How's the Headcount in the Clown Car competition going? By this point in '16 (which would mean '15) had any of the also-rans and wannabes dropped out of the GOP Cavalcade of Crustaceans?
There are 44,706,350 registered members of the Democratic Party in the United States. I believe at last count they are all running for President.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:53 AM   #649
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
He missed the debate cutoff, so he's as good as out.
I don't think he knows that, though. He's a free-spending billionaire who hopes to make future debates as the entry requirements are apparently the same. He'll just have to sit this one out and concentrate on the next one.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:54 AM   #650
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I don't think he knows that, though. He's a free-spending billionaire who hopes to make future debates as the entry requirements are apparently the same. He'll just have to sit this one out and concentrate on the next one.
As said before with how long our campaign cycle has been getting seeing candidates essentially campaigning for the election after next was going to be a thing we started seeing some version of.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:58 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by Jungle Jim View Post
The comments on this NYT story about her withdrawal are pretty interesting. Apparently there's a lot of people holding a grudge about the way she railroaded Franken.
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Old 29th August 2019, 07:59 AM   #652
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
As said before with how long our campaign cycle has been getting seeing candidates essentially campaigning for the election after next was going to be a thing we started seeing some version of.
Oh, he could be doing that. I meant he was still aiming to be in the debate after next, not the election after next.
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Old 29th August 2019, 04:48 PM   #653
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Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
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Old 29th August 2019, 05:08 PM   #654
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
They’ve already had four of these nights.
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Old 29th August 2019, 05:42 PM   #655
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
It's a circus, not a legit political discussion. None of the candidates will have the time to make a serious point in this ridiculous format.
I would love for one of the democrats who made the cut refuse his place on the grounds the format is ridiculous, but I won't hold my breath.
They should still split it into two nights. Warren, Sanders and Biden on the first night, The Rest on some other night.

Yeah, I know, we have to be fair and pretend any of the others have a shot.
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Old 29th August 2019, 06:12 PM   #656
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
He missed the debate cutoff, so he's as good as out.
Out of what? The debate or the race?

Here's Steyer's email today:
Quote:
Virginia, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed. I was eager to get on the debate stage next month — to fight for the future we're working toward together.

Here’s the good news: The only thing that's changed is our timeline. I'm fully committed to our campaign for an equitable, just, and sustainable America, and I wouldn’t be where I am without you. I’ll be ready to be your voice on that stage come October.

Since the Democratic National Committee voted against holding a climate debate, I’m hosting a town hall on Tuesday, September 3 at 5:30 p.m. Pacific Time to talk about my Justice-Centered Climate Plan. This is still something we need to talk about, and I want to give everyone the chance to ask questions and voice their concerns. Sign up here to tune in via livestream....
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Old 29th August 2019, 09:13 PM   #657
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Out of what? The debate or the race?

Here's Steyer's email today:
Both. This was his chance to gain momentum and he missed the boat. I don't think it's possible for him to catch up no matter how much money he blows.
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Old 29th August 2019, 09:32 PM   #658
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Both. This was his chance to gain momentum and he missed the boat. I don't think it's possible for him to catch up no matter how much money he blows.
Given the slate of candidates, I think it's too early to call anything.
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Old 30th August 2019, 12:48 AM   #659
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Am I the only one who thinks a debate with Ten people on the stage is a total joke?
Not even remotely.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
They’ve already had four of these nights.
And they've been criticized every time.
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Old 30th August 2019, 03:27 AM   #660
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I've seen criticisms of details like the lack of control over interruptions & shouting competitions, the Republican framing of the "questions", and two candidates' microphones apparently repeatedly cutting off, but mostly not about the general idea of having so many people on at once. So the usual complaints take the form of how having so many was managed, not that it was bad to even try it no matter how it would be managed. I've only heard that twice: once from Bernie on Joe Rogan's show, and once from a commentator talking about Bernie's appearance on Joe Rogan's show.
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Old 30th August 2019, 04:44 AM   #661
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Given the slate of candidates, I think it's too early to call anything.
I'm fine calling this. I can't see any way of getting the exposure he'd need to catch up without buying it outright and coming off like a rich jerk in the process.
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Old 1st September 2019, 11:49 AM   #662
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New Quinnipac poll

Quote:
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 - 39 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 - 40 percent;
California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 - 40 percent;
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump's 40 percent.
The argument that we should choose any particular candidate just because of electability is... probably fine to discard.
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Old 1st September 2019, 12:01 PM   #663
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
New Quinnipac poll
Quote:
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 - 39 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 - 40 percent;
California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 - 40 percent;
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump's 40 percent.
The argument that we should choose any particular candidate just because of electability is... probably fine to discard.
Probability of Hillary Clinton having beaten Trump in the popular vote in 2016: 100%
Percentages of the overall electorate are interesting, but not what really matters.
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Old 1st September 2019, 05:25 PM   #664
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
New Quinnipac poll



The argument that we should choose any particular candidate just because of electability is... probably fine to discard.
As much as I'd like to feel some security in those numbers, I can't help but remember this:

Quote:
The poll put Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, at 51% and Trump, the Republican nominee, at 41% in a head-to-head matchup.

"We are starting to hear the faint rumblings of a Hillary Clinton landslide as her 10-point lead is further proof that Donald Trump is in a downward spiral as the clock ticks," Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.
https://www.businessinsider.com/quin...ndslide-2016-8

Never forget the very real chances of the electoral system, once again, screwing over the majority of Americans.
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Old 1st September 2019, 05:43 PM   #665
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
New Quinnipac poll



The argument that we should choose any particular candidate just because of electability is... probably fine to discard.
yeah....I wouldn't be so confident.
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Old 1st September 2019, 06:42 PM   #666
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
New Quinnipac poll

The argument that we should choose any particular candidate just because of electability is... probably fine to discard.
1. Whenever you hear that a poll is of registered voters instead of likely voters, assume it is skewed somewhat towards the Democrats.

2. You curiously failed to mention that the same poll showed Joe Biden crushing the Democratic primary field, with 32% to Warren's 19% and Bernie's 15%.

3. Arguing that electability doesn't matter by referencing polls 14 months out seems a bit fraught with risk.

4. Sanders drew markedly less support as the age of the respondents increased. He started out with a terrific 31% support level among 18-31 year-olds. But he drew 13% among 35-49 year-olds and it got worse; among seniors (Democratic seniors) he's getting 4%.

5. Warren on the other hand draws about 15-20% of every age group.

6. It's Warren and Biden.
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Old 1st September 2019, 08:34 PM   #667
Aridas
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
As much as I'd like to feel some security in those numbers, I can't help but remember this:


https://www.businessinsider.com/quin...ndslide-2016-8

Never forget the very real chances of the electoral system, once again, screwing over the majority of Americans.
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
yeah....I wouldn't be so confident.
To be quite clear, I wasn't using those numbers to make the point that a Democrat will have a sure win. Given the Republican Party and their tactics, that's not even remotely close to a certainty. Rather, the better takeaway from that is that the difference in electability between the Top Democratic Party contenders is... small.


Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
1. Whenever you hear that a poll is of registered voters instead of likely voters, assume it is skewed somewhat towards the Democrats.
Of course! And, quite frankly, it's well known that Democrat-leaning folk are less likely to vote, overall, before getting to the redshift in Republican-controlled states that fairly certainly results from lots of Democratic Party-leaning voters getting purged from the voting rolls without their knowledge.

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
2. You curiously failed to mention that the same poll showed Joe Biden crushing the Democratic primary field, with 32% to Warren's 19% and Bernie's 15%.
Why would that be curious? It's not remotely new news and had little to do with the point made, though thank you for making additional points.

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
3. Arguing that electability doesn't matter by referencing polls 14 months out seems a bit fraught with risk.
Not really what I said. To put it a bit differently, I said that picking a candidate "just" because of the perception that they're the most electable is an increasingly poor reason. That doesn't remove it from consideration completely, just pulls it off the pedestal that it's been put on.

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
4. Sanders drew markedly less support as the age of the respondents increased. He started out with a terrific 31% support level among 18-31 year-olds. But he drew 13% among 35-49 year-olds and it got worse; among seniors (Democratic seniors) he's getting 4%.
And seniors, of course, are likely the most likely to actually vote group.

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
5. Warren on the other hand draws about 15-20% of every age group.

6. It's Warren and Biden.
Increasingly so, yes.
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Old 1st September 2019, 10:03 PM   #668
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To be quite clear, I wasn't using those numbers to make the point that a Democrat will have a sure win. Given the Republican Party and their tactics, that's not even remotely close to a certainty. Rather, the better takeaway from that is that the difference in electability between the Top Democratic Party contenders is... small.




Of course! And, quite frankly, it's well known that Democrat-leaning folk are less likely to vote, overall, before getting to the redshift in Republican-controlled states that fairly certainly results from lots of Democratic Party-leaning voters getting purged from the voting rolls without their knowledge.



Why would that be curious? It's not remotely new news and had little to do with the point made, though thank you for making additional points.



Not really what I said. To put it a bit differently, I said that picking a candidate "just" because of the perception that they're the most electable is an increasingly poor reason. That doesn't remove it from consideration completely, just pulls it off the pedestal that it's been put on.



And seniors, of course, are likely the most likely to actually vote group.



Increasingly so, yes.
Okay, very good response. On the electability thing--I do think that saying Joe's probably more electable than Sanders or Warren is both obvious and ignoring the obvious. Obvious because Biden is an easier sell to the middle than the others. Ignoring the obvious because that argument probably hurts him in the primaries.
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Old 1st September 2019, 11:51 PM   #669
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Okay, very good response. On the electability thing--I do think that saying Joe's probably more electable than Sanders or Warren is both obvious and ignoring the obvious. Obvious because Biden is an easier sell to the middle than the others. Ignoring the obvious because that argument probably hurts him in the primaries.
It's too early to start with state-by-state strategies, but were this, say, December......

I think it may be a wash in the primaries. If he draws that consistent "middle" pool (absent any converted conservatives, e.g. Gillibrand anyone considered moderate will get any blue dog party voters who vote) and Sanders/Warren split the prog and lefty vote, then he still fares well. This was partially the working model for Trump's ride to the GOP victory. Don't win any states outright but have enough of a solid base that you still take 30/40% while three or four parties split the remaining votes. He may not win big anywhere but he may win enough that the others defray each others' strengths.

The schedule does not favor Biden because Iowa is not his turf and NH has two almost-favorite-son(daughter) candidates in Sanders and Warren, but if his people downplay expectations in those states they need only survive those two for the numbers to start working in their favor.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:59 AM   #670
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If Biden's so electable why hasn't he been elected yet? This is what, his fourth or fifth attempt? He hasn't even gotten the nomination. Biden's electability is what TV tropes would term an informed characteristic: we're told he's electable, he's just never demonstrated it.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 07:16 AM   #671
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If Biden's so electable why hasn't he been elected yet? This is what, his fourth or fifth attempt? He hasn't even gotten the nomination. Biden's electability is what TV tropes would term an informed characteristic: we're told he's electable, he's just never demonstrated it.
He is doing best in the States the Democrats need to do well in.

He might not poll as high as Sanders in California, but we aren't likely to lose California with any of the candidates on display.

That he does not scare the voters in MI, OH, and PA is his biggest selling point.

What freighters me is the seemingly very real possibility that his physical and mental capacity fails him to an extent that cannot be glossed over as the next 12 months go by.

Warren seems considerably riskier in a head to head against Trump, but she also seems considerably more vibrant than Biden.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 07:35 AM   #672
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
He is doing best in the States the Democrats need to do well in.

He might not poll as high as Sanders in California, but we aren't likely to lose California with any of the candidates on display.

That he does not scare the voters in MI, OH, and PA is his biggest selling point.

What freighters me is the seemingly very real possibility that his physical and mental capacity fails him to an extent that cannot be glossed over as the next 12 months go by.

Warren seems considerably riskier in a head to head against Trump, but she also seems considerably more vibrant than Biden.
How did he perform in those states when actual voting occurred during primaries?
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Old 2nd September 2019, 08:01 AM   #673
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
What freighters me is the seemingly very real possibility that his physical and mental capacity fails him to an extent that cannot be glossed over as the next 12 months go by.

Warren seems considerably riskier in a head to head against Trump, but she also seems considerably more vibrant than Biden.
Oh, that's easily explained: Warren is still alive. Biden shuffled off the mortal coil years ago, he's just too out of touch to have noticed yet.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 12:40 PM   #674
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post

That he does not scare the voters in MI, OH, and PA is his biggest selling point.
In MI in the most recent head to head hypothetical matchup:
https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.n...Media_Freq.pdf
Quote:
Warren
49%

Trump
43%
I think Warren's greater strength is that voter enthusiasm among democrats would be greater with a Candidate Warren.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 12:47 PM   #675
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
In MI in the most recent head to head hypothetical matchup:
https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.n...Media_Freq.pdf


I think Warren's greater strength is that voter enthusiasm among democrats would be greater with a Candidate Warren.
Your link suggests otherwise. The match-up shows Biden beating Trump by a wider margin. Also, look at the favourability ratings. Warren is actually lower than Trump!
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Old 2nd September 2019, 12:49 PM   #676
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Oh, that's easily explained: Warren is still alive. Biden shuffled off the mortal coil years ago, he's just too out of touch to have noticed yet.
Biden's offering a token woman or black VP if he's elected in the Primary. It's pitiful.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 01:00 PM   #677
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It's official: many polls have ANY Democrat beat Trump now.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 01:02 PM   #678
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Biden's offering a token woman or black VP if he's elected in the Primary. It's pitiful.
And apparently he also told a war story that turned out to be false in every detail. (I like the way that he keeps saying “this is true” while he makes **** up; the mark of an honest guy!)

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...etail-is-false

But isn’t that missing the point? Remember, the best candidate in terms of electability is not necessarily the best candidate in terms of actual qualities. They need to find someone who can get the most votes (in the right places) from an electorate who voted Donald Trump.

Big dumb, senile Joe might be the best you can expect and maybe the best the electorate deserves right now. Of course Sanders or Warren would be better but the electorate is far too stupid. They would rather have an orange baboon than Medicare. You can’t dish up a quality candidate to those people. It’s like trying to take a pig that wants to eat out of a trough to a fancy French restaurant.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 01:03 PM   #679
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Also, look at the favourability ratings. Warren is actually lower than Trump!
But!
When you look at "very unfavorable", you see:

Trump:
46%

Warren:
25%

___________

When you look at "very favorable" you get:
Biden
18%

Trump:
27%
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Old 2nd September 2019, 01:06 PM   #680
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OMG, Ninja'd by minutes.

Echoes of Clinton's bravery under fire:

National Review via Yahoo (slants GOP) We Need to Talk about Joe Biden
Quote:
Joe Biden is a plagiarist and a liar, among other things. In the most recent example, detailed by the Washington Post, Biden made up a story in which he as vice president displayed personal courage and heroism in traveling to a dangerous war zone in order to recognize the service of an American soldier who had distinguished himself in a particularly dramatic way. It was a moving story. “This is the God’s truth,” he concluded. “My word as a Biden.”...

But his word as a Biden isn’t worth squat, as the Post showed, reporting that “Biden got the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony.” Which is a nice way of saying: Biden lied about an act of military heroism in order to aggrandize his own role in the story.

Like Hillary Rodham Clinton under fictitious sniper fire, Biden highlighted his own supposed courage in the face of physical danger: “We can lose a vice president. We can’t lose many more of these kids.”
He'll get killed on this **** regardless the other choice is the liar in chief.
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