ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

Reply
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:07 PM   #681
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 25,663
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
But!
When you look at "very unfavorable", you see:

Trump:
46%

Warren:
25%

___________

When you look at "very favorable" you get:
Biden
18%

Trump:
27%
Huh?

You also get Warren with a 13% “very favorable” rating. Lower than Biden!

ETA: Biden’s “very unfavorable” rating is also lower than Warren’s.

Am I losing my mind? Am I doing a Biden? What am I missing here?
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

Last edited by angrysoba; 2nd September 2019 at 01:11 PM.
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:16 PM   #682
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 23,172
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
He'll get killed on this **** regardless the other choice is the liar in chief.
I stick by all of my previous comments about Biden. I see no way he can beat Trump, nor does he deserve to - he's not much of an improvement.

Fortunately, I think Liz will whip them all hollow. Her support has been trending exactly as you'd want at this stage - slowly but surely headed north. She's broken well clear of the other also-rans and is trending towards #1 as more and more people see her as someone they'd be proud to have as president.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:32 PM   #683
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 25,663
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I stick by all of my previous comments about Biden. I see no way he can beat Trump, nor does he deserve to - he's not much of an improvement.
As bad as he is, he’s a huge improvement. Donald Trump Just congratulated Poland for being invaded by the Nazis. And that’s probably not the dumbest thing he has said this week.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:34 PM   #684
Cabbage
Graduate Poster
 
Cabbage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,620
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Your link suggests otherwise. The match-up shows Biden beating Trump by a wider margin. Also, look at the favourability ratings. Warren is actually lower than Trump!

But the claim was that voter enthusiasm would be greater with Warren. That can still be true even if Biden beats Trump by a wider margin than Warren; the poll isn't trying to measure enthusiasm.
Cabbage is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:38 PM   #685
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 25,663
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
But the claim was that voter enthusiasm would be greater with Warren. That can still be true even if Biden beats Trump by a wider margin than Warren; the poll isn't trying to measure enthusiasm.
What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:41 PM   #686
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Huh?

You also get Warren with a 13% “very favorable” rating. Lower than Biden!

ETA: Biden’s “very unfavorable” rating is also lower than Warren’s.

Am I losing my mind? Am I doing a Biden? What am I missing here?
They both beat Trump significantly in a head to head matchup, and they both get demolished by Trump on the "very favorable" metric.

The claim I was responding to about how MI voters "aren't scared" of Biden, as though they are scared of all the other candidates, is overall incorrect.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:45 PM   #687
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?
Warren's favorability rating nationally is higher.
https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/27...ble-candidate/

Quote:
Warren Overtakes Biden as Most Favorable Candidate
Quote:
The favorite presidential candidate of Democrats is actually not polling leader Joe Biden: It’s Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who sports the highest net favorability rating (+54 percentage points vs. +52 percentage points), according to FiveThirtyEight.
eta:
In battleground districts:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...d-favorability
Quote:
Senator Elizabeth Warren had the highest net favorable ratings among the presidential candidates we tested.
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.

Last edited by kellyb; 2nd September 2019 at 01:50 PM.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:47 PM   #688
Cabbage
Graduate Poster
 
Cabbage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,620
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
What about the favourability ratings where Biden still wins? Does it make sense to say “I am more enthusiastic about Warren but I favour Biden more!”?
What if people that favor Warren are simply more likely to make it out and vote than those that favor Biden?

In other words: "I favor Warren more and am determined to make it to the polls!"

versus someone else saying

"I favor Biden more but I'll vote if it's convenient".

Note: I'm not claiming that's actually the case, but it's certainly consistent with this poll.
Cabbage is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 01:58 PM   #689
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
What if people that favor Warren are simply more likely to make it out and vote than those that favor Biden?

In other words: "I favor Warren more and am determined to make it to the polls!"

versus someone else saying

"I favor Biden more but I'll vote if it's convenient".

Note: I'm not claiming that's actually the case, but it's certainly consistent with this poll.
Yeah, there's that, too. Plus the "I favor Warren more and am a campaign volunteer recruiting more campaign volunteers" factor.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 04:28 PM   #690
Distracted1
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 3,115
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
In MI in the most recent head to head hypothetical matchup:
https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.n...Media_Freq.pdf


I think Warren's greater strength is that voter enthusiasm among democrats would be greater with a Candidate Warren.
Sure, but is it more than offset by the right-leaning voters who would be willing to sit it out and "let the Dems take this one" if Biden were the "Dem" in question.

I see them holding their noses and voting Trump again if they start feeling the hot breath of Reparations, Socialized medicine, and Free college breathing down their necks.
That's what I mean by "scaring" them.
__________________
The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure.
Distracted1 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd September 2019, 04:47 PM   #691
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Sure, but is it more than offset by the right-leaning voters who would be willing to sit it out and "let the Dems take this one" if Biden were the "Dem" in question.

I see them holding their noses and voting Trump again if they start feeling the hot breath of Reparations, Socialized medicine, and Free college breathing down their necks.
That's what I mean by "scaring" them.
I think the people who are going to vote for Trump will overwhelmingly do so regardless of who the Dem candidate is.
And again:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...d-favorability
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 05:59 AM   #692
Distracted1
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 3,115
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I think the people who are going to vote for Trump will overwhelmingly do so regardless of who the Dem candidate is.
And again:
https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...d-favorability
I hope that is enough to do the trick.

I know many registered Republicans, and right leaning unregistered voters, in MI and PA who did not vote for Trump last election. They either left the POTUS block open or took the opportunity to cast a third party vote.

I suspect they will do the same in 2020 unless the Dem candidate appears to be "too far" to the left.
__________________
The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure.
Distracted1 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:01 AM   #693
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,567
I still remain convinced this is what's going to hang us. Full on pay-to-play. How much corporate money do you bring the party is what determines how well you do in the party.

Here’s How Much the Democratic Party Charges to Be on Each House Committee

Quote:
Members of Congress who pay their dues and hit their targets are rewarded with better committee assignments in the future, and more favorable treatment of legislation they author, than members who shirk their dues. Members who don’t pay, for instance, are less likely to have their bills or amendments get a floor or committee vote. The DCCC did not respond to a request for comment.

The points system the DCCC has worked out adds layers of nuance to the money chase. According to the internal document describing the points program, raising more than $15,000, or hosting an event that raises that amount for vulnerable incumbents, known as front-line members or Red-to-Blue candidates — Democrats running in swing seats — is worth five points. Traveling to a district to campaign for a candidate, having a staff member volunteer to campaign in a district, and hosting a get-out-the-vote phone bank are each worth three points. For two points, members can do press or fundraising work on behalf of a candidate, including phone or television interviews with local papers, town hall meetings, radio ads, robo calls, or finance meetings. The members are able to log their fundraising activities using an online form.

“It’s not really something anyone pays attention to,” said one House Democrat of the points program, which is not new to this cycle. “It’s not nearly as important as how much you’ve directly given to them.”
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:06 AM   #694
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,084
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

What a joke if Biden ends up the nominee. Can't wait for the utter shock when some milquetoast center-right Democrat fails to inspire any enthusiasm or voter turnout and throws the election to Trump.
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:15 AM   #695
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 51,266
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

What a joke if Biden ends up the nominee. Can't wait for the utter shock when some milquetoast center-right Democrat fails to inspire any enthusiasm or voter turnout and throws the election to Trump.
If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:33 AM   #696
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.
I heard the DNC is already looking to lock-in their 2024 candidate: Mitt Romney
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:34 AM   #697
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,084
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I heard the DNC is already looking to lock-in their 2024 candidate: Mitt Romney
Yeah, but imagine how good he would be at fundraising!
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:41 AM   #698
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 51,266
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Yeah, but imagine how good he would be at fundraising!
Sadly he left a suitcase full of cash on the roof of his car and lost it. He had to phone up every woman in his binders to apologize.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:53 AM   #699
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If that happens the Democratic Party will conclude they need an even more milquetoast even more right candidate next time. The party doesn't learn from its mistakes. It doubles down on them.
I guess the question is whether the Democrats HAD made mistakes by picking "milquetoast" candidates.

Remember in 2008, Obama may have been further to the Left than George Bush and the rest of the republicans, but he was far from being a 'radical leftist'. His voting record would probably place him close to the center of Democratic senators.

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politi...f_Barack_Obama
The Almanac of American Politics (2008) rated Obama's overall social policies in 2006 as more conservative than 21% of the U.S. Senate, and more liberal than 77% of the Senate (18% and 77%, respectively, in 2005).

And then there was Bill Clinton, who (in his first election campaign) pushed for a balanced budget and supported NAFTA (positions that differed from many Democrats at the time).

Seems like Democrats do have success when they don't go too far to the left.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 10:22 AM   #700
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Seems like Democrats do have success when they don't go too far to the left.
When did they last go too far to the left?

I think Obama has been the farthest left they have been in the last few elections and he did very well. That he wasn't as left as many hoped is not an indication that he would have done worse if he was more left.
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 10:24 AM   #701
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Yeah, but imagine how good he would be at fundraising!
He is "articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," Biden said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man."
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 10:54 AM   #702
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Quote:
Seems like Democrats do have success when they don't go too far to the left.
When did they last go too far to the left?
First of all, I was responding to another poster who had suggested Democrats never learn from their mistakes by picking 'moderate' candidates. I was just illustrating that moderate candidates can and do find success with the Democrats.

Secondly, there are some people who think Hillary Clinton was campaigning fairly far to the left (possibly forced to adopt policies thanks to Sanders) compared to where Bill Clinton had campaigned. For example, she came out against the TPP, wanted a rise in the minimum wage to $12/$15,

Quote:
I think Obama has been the farthest left they have been in the last few elections and he did very well.
Further to the left than some previous presidental candidates, not further to the left when compared to many congress critters and/or Democratic voters.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 11:22 AM   #703
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
First of all, I was responding to another poster who had suggested Democrats never learn from their mistakes by picking 'moderate' candidates. I was just illustrating that moderate candidates can and do find success with the Democrats.
Moderate success.

Quote:
Secondly, there are some people who think Hillary Clinton was campaigning fairly far to the left (possibly forced to adopt policies thanks to Sanders) compared to where Bill Clinton had campaigned. For example, she came out against the TPP, wanted a rise in the minimum wage to $12/$15,
Some people think the moon landings were fake. She was as middle of the road as she could be without having to turn in her D.


Quote:
Further to the left than some previous presidental candidates, not further to the left when compared to many congress critters and/or Democratic voters.
A lot of words to carry such a light load.
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 12:15 PM   #704
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Quote:
First of all, I was responding to another poster who had suggested Democrats never learn from their mistakes by picking 'moderate' candidates. I was just illustrating that moderate candidates can and do find success with the Democrats.
Moderate success.
If being mutli-term presidents (you know, the position that allows the holder to nominate judges, veto legislation, and set foreign policy) is "moderate success" then I hope the Democrats have all the 'moderate success' that they can handle.

Seriously, what else were you expecting?

Quote:
Quote:
Secondly, there are some people who think Hillary Clinton was campaigning fairly far to the left (possibly forced to adopt policies thanks to Sanders) compared to where Bill Clinton had campaigned. For example, she came out against the TPP, wanted a rise in the minimum wage to $12/$15,
Some people think the moon landings were fake. She was as middle of the road as she could be without having to turn in her D.
From: https://www.latimes.com/nation/polit...329-story.html
A group of 3,000 people surveyed by the Rand Corp. in December rated Clinton as being about as liberal as the average registered Democrat. The group was asked again just this month after voting in the contentious primary had gotten underway and Clinton had seemed to shift left to regain her footing as Sanders had begun winning states.
...
After Clinton’s big wins on Super Tuesday...the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a liberal powerhouse, announced the night was hardly a disappointment for the grass roots....co-founder Adam Green told reporters, Clinton was no longer the centrist candidate she was when the race began. ...To support his argument, Green offers a laundry list of positions Clinton has taken: her call to jail rogue Wall Street bankers, to break up “too big to fail” banks, to expand Social Security, to make public universities debt-free. He points out how Clinton sought to get to the left of Sanders on several of these issues.


From:https://www.npr.org/2016/04/02/47243...on-to-the-left
When asked, a spokesman for the Sanders campaign listed off several areas where Clinton has moved: trade, climate change, social security, Wall Street reform and the minimum wage. But Clinton's camp isn't buying it. "No, I don't think he's pushed her," said pollster Joel Benenson, a Clinton strategist..."I think she has said repeatedly, she's a progressive who likes to get things done."

So, the Sander's campaign saying "she's more leftist now". Members of a Left-wing group saying "she's more leftist now". And the Clinton campaign itself adopting the 'progressive' label.

Is this a case of you adopting such a far left-wing position with complete ideological purity that anyone that doesn't completely conform to your mindset is somehow right-wing?
Quote:
Quote:
Re: Obama

Further to the left than some previous presidental candidates, not further to the left when compared to many congress critters and/or Democratic voters.
A lot of words to carry such a light load.
And you gave very few words that managed to carry even less weight.

Mine was an accurate assessment.

If 21% of the senate is more "liberal" than Obama, and the democrats made up roughly half the senate, then Obama was pretty much in the middle of the pack of democrats. Certainly not someone who was a 'far left' radical.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 12:16 PM   #705
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 21,441
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

What a joke if Biden ends up the nominee. Can't wait for the utter shock when some milquetoast center-right Democrat fails to inspire any enthusiasm or voter turnout and throws the election to Trump.
Biden is too gaffe-prone and utterly uninspiring.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 12:17 PM   #706
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,057
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I guess the question is whether the Democrats HAD made mistakes by picking "milquetoast" candidates....
It's not the milquetoast candidates, it's their utter failure to produce decent marketing of said candidates.

And if they don't figure out how to market this time, the GOP will run right over us.
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 01:49 PM   #707
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
If being mutli-term presidents (you know, the position that allows the holder to nominate judges, veto legislation, and set foreign policy) is "moderate success" then I hope the Democrats have all the 'moderate success' that they can handle.

Seriously, what else were you expecting?
Some evidence that going further left would have been worse in the general election.


Quote:
From: https://www.latimes.com/nation/polit...329-story.html
A group of 3,000 people surveyed by the Rand Corp. in December rated Clinton as being about as liberal as the average registered Democrat. The group was asked again just this month after voting in the contentious primary had gotten underway and Clinton had seemed to shift left to regain her footing as Sanders had begun winning states.
...
After Clinton’s big wins on Super Tuesday...the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a liberal powerhouse, announced the night was hardly a disappointment for the grass roots....co-founder Adam Green told reporters, Clinton was no longer the centrist candidate she was when the race began. ...To support his argument, Green offers a laundry list of positions Clinton has taken: her call to jail rogue Wall Street bankers, to break up “too big to fail” banks, to expand Social Security, to make public universities debt-free. He points out how Clinton sought to get to the left of Sanders on several of these issues.


From:https://www.npr.org/2016/04/02/47243...on-to-the-left
When asked, a spokesman for the Sanders campaign listed off several areas where Clinton has moved: trade, climate change, social security, Wall Street reform and the minimum wage. But Clinton's camp isn't buying it. "No, I don't think he's pushed her," said pollster Joel Benenson, a Clinton strategist..."I think she has said repeatedly, she's a progressive who likes to get things done."

So, the Sander's campaign saying "she's more leftist now". Members of a Left-wing group saying "she's more leftist now". And the Clinton campaign itself adopting the 'progressive' label.
Yes, she had to pander left to secure the nomination, but did she campaign hard on those policies in the general, was there a real shift in her policies. I don't think we will ever know, but it certainly felt like she was being pulled from "conservative democrat" to "look how progressive I am" just to keep Sanders at bay.

Quote:
Is this a case of you adopting such a far left-wing position with complete ideological purity that anyone that doesn't completely conform to your mindset is somehow right-wing?
No. I voted for her and would vote for her again if she were running. But that doesn't mean she isn't a centrist democrat.

Quote:
And you gave very few words that managed to carry even less weight.

Mine was an accurate assessment.

If 21% of the senate is more "liberal" than Obama, and the democrats made up roughly half the senate, then Obama was pretty much in the middle of the pack of democrats. Certainly not someone who was a 'far left' radical.
Right. And I think we will agree that he is the most liberal democratic presidential candidate in recent history. And he got 52.9% of the vote. You have to go back to LBJ a year after JFKs assassination to find a democrat with a better percentage of the popular vote. If you skip that one due to the understandable sentimental issues at play, keep going back to FDR.

The most liberal is also the most popular.

Yet the take away is that we should be less liberal. OK. You have any bridges for sale?
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:04 PM   #708
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
For example, she came out against the TPP,
Funny thing is, I've never met anyone who believed her about that. Absolutely nobody.

Did you?

Did anyone else here?
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:15 PM   #709
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 25,663
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post

Is this a case of you adopting such a far left-wing position with complete ideological purity that anyone that doesn't completely conform to your mindset is somehow right-wing?


Give me Trotsky, or I don’t votsky!
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:44 PM   #710
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,057
On another note, the DNC has emailed out requests for debate questions. I don't think my proposed question will get much attention but you never know:

Do you have a marketing plan/team to deal with the powerful propaganda attacks and lies you know will saturate social media and also the mainstream media?
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:49 PM   #711
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Quote:
If being mutli-term presidents (you know, the position that allows the holder to nominate judges, veto legislation, and set foreign policy) is "moderate success" then I hope the Democrats have all the 'moderate success' that they can handle.

Seriously, what else were you expecting?
Some evidence that going further left would have been worse in the general election.
From: https://www.vox.com/2019/7/2/2067765...remism-penalty
The hoary old chestnut that moderate candidates do better at the polls than relatively extreme ones is well supported in the academic literature. In 2002, for example, Brandice Canes-Wrone, David Brady, and John Cogan found that the more an incumbent House member breaks with party leadership on roll call votes, the better he does on Election Day. Andrew Hall in 2015 looked at very close congressional primaries and found that moderate candidates who narrowly win the nomination do better in the general election than extreme candidates who narrowly win the nomination. A follow-up paper he wrote with Daniel Thompson suggests this is because certain folk theories about base mobilization are mistaken, and extreme nominees “fire up” the other side’s base and increase opposition turnout.


From: https://www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/H...r_Ideology.pdf
This paper examines the relationship between ideological position and electoral success in U.S. elections.... In general elections moderate candidates tend to receive more votes, and win more often, than extremists.

Quote:
Yes, she had to pander left to secure the nomination, but did she campaign hard on those policies in the general, was there a real shift in her policies. I don't think we will ever know, but it certainly felt like she was being pulled from "conservative democrat" to "look how progressive I am" just to keep Sanders at bay.
Whatever reason she had for trying to put forward left wing policies, it did seem to give her the reputation of a 'leftist/liberal'.

From: https://www.people-press.org/2016/07...act-on-issues/
Most voters (58%) say Clinton has liberal views on almost all or most issues. Just 28% say Clinton has a mix of liberal and conservative positions...Perceptions of Trump’s ideology are more divided: 44% say he has conservative views on almost all issues or most issues, while 40% say he has a mix of conservative and liberal positions.

So, your average voter saw Clinton as more 'liberal' than saw Trump as more 'conservative'.

Quote:
Quote:
And you gave very few words that managed to carry even less weight.

Mine was an accurate assessment.

If 21% of the senate is more "liberal" than Obama, and the democrats made up roughly half the senate, then Obama was pretty much in the middle of the pack of democrats. Certainly not someone who was a 'far left' radical.
Right. And I think we will agree that he is the most liberal democratic presidential candidate in recent history. And he got 52.9% of the vote. You have to go back to LBJ a year after JFKs assassination to find a democrat with a better percentage of the popular vote. If you skip that one due to the understandable sentimental issues at play, keep going back to FDR.
No, I don't think we agree that he is the "most liberal democratic candidate in recent history".

I'd say Dukakis was further to the left than Obama in some respects (crime issues, plus he had a reputation for 'tax and spend'), especially when you consider how the political spectrum has shifted over time. And the democrats lost horribly to Bush.
Quote:
Yet the take away is that we should be less liberal. OK. You have any bridges for sale?
Go ahead. Pick the most left-wing candidate you can find. Pat yourself on the back for your willingness to stand up for your principles.

Just don't be surprised if you end up losing the election because you have both lost moderates, and energized the republican base by picking someone who can turn Republicans from 'Meh... not sure if I want to vote' to 'OMG! Gotta stop the far left Democrats!'
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:52 PM   #712
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
On another note, the DNC has emailed out requests for debate questions. I don't think my proposed question will get much attention but you never know:

Do you have a marketing plan/team to deal with the powerful propaganda attacks and lies you know will saturate social media and also the mainstream media?
Honest question: how would you recommend they deal with that?
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 02:55 PM   #713
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
From: https://www.vox.com/2019/7/2/2067765...remism-penalty
[i]The hoary old chestnut that moderate candidates do better at the polls than relatively extreme ones is well supported in the academic literature. In 2002, for example,...
I'm sure it was true almost 20 years ago. The 90's and early 2ks were the age of centrist supremacy, for sure.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:02 PM   #714
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
energized the republican base by picking someone who can turn Republicans from 'Meh... not sure if I want to vote' to 'OMG! Gotta stop the far left Democrats!'
I don't know if you've noticed, but that "someone" is anyone who runs as a Democrat.
All democrats are "far left" to Republicans.

Hillary Clinton was never seen as anything BUT a far-left Democrat to Republicans. Same with Obama.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:04 PM   #715
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
The hoary old chestnut that moderate candidates do better at the polls than relatively extreme ones is well supported in the academic literature. In 2002, for example,...
I'm sure it was true almost 20 years ago. The 90's and early 2ks were the age of centrist supremacy, for sure.
First of all, do you have any reason why it wouldn't be true today?

While the U.S. does seem to be more polarized now than it was in the past, there is no reason to believe that election turnout (the reason why extreme candidates fail) wouldn't still be affected at least to some degree.

Secondly, look at my posting. The reference I gave posted multiple studies, the latest being done in 2015. Which is a lot more recent than "almost 20 years ago".
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:13 PM   #716
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Quote:
energized the republican base by picking someone who can turn Republicans from 'Meh... not sure if I want to vote' to 'OMG! Gotta stop the far left Democrats!'
I don't know if you've noticed, but that "someone" is anyone who runs as a Democrat.
All democrats are "far left" to Republicans.

Hillary Clinton was never seen as anything BUT a far-left Democrat to Republicans. Same with Obama.
Yes, I'm sure whomever the Democrats pick will subsequently be demonized as the second coming of Marx by the republicans, and many in their base will believe it.

But, the impact will not be universal. Some (even most) will do everything they can to stop the 'Evil Librul Democrats', others will actually be less energized, unless they can see an actual threat (such as Sanders taking away people's private insurance.) Granted we are only talking about a minority of Republicans, but when you have elections that are decided on only a few thousand votes in a couple of swing states, then even getting a few of the less eager republicans to sit out the 2020 election can make a difference.

After all, despite significant evidence that Trump was a racist, many african American voters who had supported Obama sat out the 2016 election. Sometimes motivation matters.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:15 PM   #717
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,885
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
First of all, do you have any reason why it wouldn't be true today?
There are more independents now, for one thing, and you can look at the changes in how they lean:
https://www.people-press.org/2019/03...at-they-think/

There's been a huge growth in the "lean democrat" type. From 10% in 2002, to 17% in 2018. (A 64% increase).

The economics of "fiscal conservatism" has proven false since the housing crash. Stuff like that almost has to be behind this, I think:

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...d-favorability
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:18 PM   #718
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,893
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Re: Evidence Clinton was attempting to run as a 'left/progressive/Liberal'

Quote:
For example, she came out against the TPP,
Funny thing is, I've never met anyone who believed her about that. Absolutely nobody.

Did you?

Did anyone else here?
I don't know if anyone here would have believed it. But, we're not exactly typical of the American electorate. I suspect a large portion of the general electorate would believe her when she said she was against the TPP.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:23 PM   #719
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,105
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
So, your average voter saw Clinton as more 'liberal' than saw Trump as more 'conservative'.
You are right. That is probably why she got 3 million less votes. Sorry I questioned your thesis.
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:28 PM   #720
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,057
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Honest question: how would you recommend they deal with that?
Hire expertise. The answer I'd like to hear is an admission the Democratic candidates have been weak in this field and they plan to use a team of experts like Cambridge Analytica.

What I don't want to hear is any belief that effectiveness requires dishonesty because it absolutely does not.
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:34 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.