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#1 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,248
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Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant. https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets |
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#2 |
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 39,529
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"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes... Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes." ![]() |
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#3 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 49,832
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Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#4 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 30,556
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#5 |
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X
Posts: 39,475
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Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.
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If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set. "...just as a magnet attracts iron filings, "[shemp is] a most notable coward, an infinite and endless liar, an hourly promise breaker, the owner of no one good quality." - Shakespeare |
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#6 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 32,180
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Inspiring discussion of Sharknado is not a good sign for the audience expectations of your new high-concept SF movie sequel. - Myriad |
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#7 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 2,797
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Any other time, I'd agree, but his base is SOLID behind him. If he isn't impeached, thus rendering him inelligable, or isn't arrested by SDNY on a Felony, or phsically deteriorate to the point he has to be institutionalized, he might well run and have strong chance of winning.
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"As it was in the days of Noah, so will it be at the coming of the Son of Man." - Matthew 24:37 "And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." - Luke 21:28 |
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#8 |
In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 46,834
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#9 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,269
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people have made good money betting against delusional Trump supporters.
no reason to stop now. |
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Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam. |
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#10 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 16,780
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Well, a few things to keep in mind:
- If you have a large number of candidates in the primary, due to vote splitting/distribution a candidate does not need to get anywhere near a majority of votes to take an early lead - Trump did do very well in the past election, and had strong support among the republican base. - Even after last Wednesday's terrorist acts, a large number of republicans still support Trump, and think the terrorism was acceptable. Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump. So, while Trump would be unlikely to win the general election (where he would have to appeal to moderates), its not out of the realm of possibility that he might win the republican primaries. |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#11 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,248
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#12 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,806
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the season hasn’t started yet
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#13 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 5,451
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Hey the good news is that if he does run I can think of nothing else that would do more to galvanize the Democratic vote to turn out. Plus if we're lucky he opens a split in the Republican party, or even better he denounces the Republicans as having betrayed him and runs as an independent.
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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#14 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 10,351
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Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in. If he runs as an independent, there is no way the people would stand for him becoming POTUS again. The 2021 coup attempt would be nothing compared to the reaction from the liberals if Trump won.
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"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig |
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#15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 10,351
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"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig |
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#16 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,708
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Even if Trump was to somehow win the Republican 2024 nomination, I think there's enough republicans who would refuse to vote for him in the general election, it would neuter his chances of winning. Anecdotal, I know, but my FiL is a long time blue-collar Republican. His family has always voted republican, as has he. He voted for Trump in the election (under some very tenuous reasoning about Biden going to quickly resign so Harris will be president). Now he's calling for Trump to resign or be impeached and to never run for office again. I think there's a very real split in the party forming over this.
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#17 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 16,780
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How exactly would the GOP be able to keep him out of the race though? It's sort of a democratic thing, and supposedly the party leaders don't have that much control.
They could throw up roadblocks (like limits on the number of debate participants, or other candidates dropping out and endorsing a single non-trump candidate) but there is no guarantee that would keep trump out. Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#18 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 23,285
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Experience is an excellent teacher, but she sends large bills. |
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#19 |
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 39,529
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I expect he's going to be rendered inert soon enough. Since he clearly lacks the good sence to get out while the getting's good (Or he'd have resigned when the election was called, maybe right after issuing a well constructed string of pardons) he's most likely going to hang around long enough to see his fat ass impeached a second time, with a ban on running for office ever again, thrown in for good measure.
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"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes... Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes." ![]() |
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#20 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 2,797
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__________________
"As it was in the days of Noah, so will it be at the coming of the Son of Man." - Matthew 24:37 "And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." - Luke 21:28 |
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#21 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,269
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the longer people believe that Trump will win in 2024, the harder it will be for the GOP to field a credible challenger.
I'm all for it. |
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Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam. |
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#22 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 1,638
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#23 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,248
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#24 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,048
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I'm assuming that they not letting people bet the other side at these odds?
(Although that might still be a bad bet seeing that it entails letting Ladbrokes hold the money for 3.5 years. Getting a 25% return (1-4 odds) over that time frame isn't that great of an investment even if it were a lock...) |
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#25 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,248
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#26 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,048
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4-1 on Trump is a terrible bet. However...
I think 8-1 on Pence is way worse. I can dream up scenarios where Trump winds up with the nomination. I can't come up with any remotely plausible scenario where Pence gets on the ticket seeing the only people that he could have called his base just wanted to hang him on the Capitol lawn. He's probably not the most hated man in America, but he might be the most widely disliked. |
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