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Old 7th March 2019, 04:17 PM   #81
mgidm86
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think that the India/Pakistan situation is a lot more likely to go nuclear then North Korea.

I suggest everyone review the North Korea Summit thread from last year and see how many of our posters thought that nuclear war was a real danger. Hilarious reading.

Same thing here.
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Old 7th March 2019, 04:18 PM   #82
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Maybe India will drop a bunch of crippling nukes on North Korea and then tell Pakistan that the same thing will happen to them if they don't behave nicely.

That won't happen.
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Old 7th March 2019, 05:21 PM   #83
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But re: the point of the OP- Does the football actually launch the nukes, or does it tell some Colonels some where to tell some Majors to tell some NCOs to warm up the missiles? Even in Dr. Strangelove there were recall codes, etc?

And/or, some mid level officer carries the football around all day. CinC requests he bring it over. CinC opens the brief case, starts to turn a key, enter a password, whatever. Officer winks to SS agent, no more Trump.

In any scenario, there ARE other people involved in a nuclear attack. Layers of them. On purpose. Otherwise all it would take in today's world is for the Pres-for-the-rest-of-his-short-life to click a button on his i-pad. It could be easier than sending a tweet. Which would be his next action.

So no, I don't think Trump will end the world on his own whim.

And I do notice that the Nork "Emperor" has been quiet lately.

Trumps foreign policy seems to be based on the old saw "Speak egotistically and remind them that you carry a big stick".
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Old 7th March 2019, 05:27 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
But re: the point of the OP- Does the football actually launch the nukes, or does it tell some Colonels some where to tell some Majors to tell some NCOs to warm up the missiles? Even in Dr. Strangelove there were recall codes, etc?

And/or, some mid level officer carries the football around all day. CinC requests he bring it over. CinC opens the brief case, starts to turn a key, enter a password, whatever. Officer winks to SS agent, no more Trump.

In any scenario, there ARE other people involved in a nuclear attack. Layers of them. On purpose. Otherwise all it would take in today's world is for the Pres-for-the-rest-of-his-short-life to click a button on his i-pad. It could be easier than sending a tweet. Which would be his next action.
I can imagine there are "layers" but the process would still be damn quick from PUSH to LAUNCH. My expectation is that when Trump says he wants to nuke Kim for whatever reason, the football will be traveling in another golf cart and he will be thinking about hamberders instead before they get it to him. Meanwhile, in a real nuclear situation, steely-eyed missile men will be doing the real decision-making. Better that way.

Quote:
And I do notice that the Nork "Emperor" has been quiet lately.
Like all naughty kids, if you can't hear them then they are up to no good.
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Old 7th March 2019, 05:46 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
I suggest everyone review the North Korea Summit thread from last year and see how many of our posters thought that nuclear war was a real danger. Hilarious reading.

Same thing here.
SO the way to avoid a problem is pretending it does not exist. Clever.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:11 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
He should consider nuking North Korea, though. It would only take about five low-yield nukes, none of them really threatening any of the peninsula's beautiful beaches. If the Joint Chiefs decided to pitch it as a business opportunity, we might actually have a president in office who's prepared to lance this boil.

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Old 7th March 2019, 06:13 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
SO the way to avoid a problem is pretending it does not exist. Clever.
Who's pretending? The rational thing to do when you think a problem doesn't exist is to say it doesn't exist.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:14 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
People are suffering and dying in North Korea, while their government works towards a scheme of nuclear extortion, and you're worried about your hairdo.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:55 PM   #89
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Wow, the threads on this site just keep getting dumber.
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:57 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
"I promise you, Twenty Million Killed, Tops!".
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Old 7th March 2019, 06:58 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
Wow, the threads on this site just keep getting dumber.
No one is holding a gun to your head making you come here......
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:00 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
You don't have to believe that Trump would deliberately blow up the world to recognize that Trump's ignorance, stupidity and belligerence could lead to a catastrophic miscalculation, like his chatter about giving NK a "bloody nose." He's accustomed to bullying people into giving him what he wants. That won't always work.
Exactly. Imagine Trump negotiating during the Cuban missile crisis (and not with an ally like Putin).
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:01 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
No one is holding a gun to your head making you come here......
Maybe someone is. A bizarre sort of abuse.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:02 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
Wow, the threads on this site just keep getting dumber.
And yet here you are.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:04 PM   #95
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The gif is from a movie called Dr Stranglove or: How I Stopped Worrying and Love the Bomb. The scene in the GIF is near the end when George C Scott is trying to convince the president that the US could win a nuclear exchange with the USSR. Here is the a little more context to that quote:

" General "Buck" Turgidson: Mr. President, we are rapidly approaching a moment of truth both for ourselves as human beings and for the life of our nation. Now, truth is not always a pleasant thing. But it is necessary now to make a choice, to choose between two admittedly regrettable, but nevertheless *distinguishable*, postwar environments: one where you got twenty million people killed, and the other where you got a hundred and fifty million people killed.

President Merkin Muffley: You're talking about mass murder, General, not war!

General "Buck" Turgidson: Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks. "
You would of had to of seen the movie to get the reference and why it is germane in this thread.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:06 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
No one is holding a gun to your head making you come here......
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And yet here you are.
Who doesn't love a quality trainwreck?
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:07 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Exactly. Imagine Trump negotiating during the Cuban missile crisis (and not with an ally like Putin).
How much brinkmanship do you think Kruschev would have dared, with Donald Trump for a counterparty?

On the other hand, the Cuban Missile Crisis started because Kennedy put nukes in Turkey - something far more destabilizing than anything Trump has done so far.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:11 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I can imagine there are "layers" but the process would still be damn quick from PUSH to LAUNCH. My expectation is that when Trump says he wants to nuke Kim for whatever reason, the football will be traveling in another golf cart and he will be thinking about hamberders instead before they get it to him. Meanwhile, in a real nuclear situation, steely-eyed missile men will be doing the real decision-making. Better that way.
In the book (see above) Pence runs off with the Football to prevent Trump from using it. Nukes weren't needed to eliminate NK's threat, by that time Kim had already launched his nukes.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:33 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Mostly it would kill people in the North Korean military establishment. It's true that some innocents would probably die.
You know, an Executive Order was just signed that those civilian casualties no longer have to be reported? (true)
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:43 PM   #100
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Nuclear Apocalypse suggests an all out nuclear war between the US and Russia. Given Russia has never had such a close ally as POTUS, this may be the farthest we've been from it. All bets are off if Tweedledum decides to take a fancy to the notion of launching nukes against Western Europe, China or something equally stupid.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:44 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
You know, an Executive Order was just signed that those civilian casualties no longer have to be reported? (true)
Cite?
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:46 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Nuclear Apocalypse suggests an all out nuclear war between the US and Russia. Given Russia has never had such a close ally as POTUS, this may be the farthest we've been from it.
What makes you think Trump is such a trustworthy or reliable ally? Hasn't he dicked over his business partners in the past?

Isn't he even now a compulsive liar who can't be trusted to reflect reality from one moment to the next?
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:51 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Hasn't he dicked over his business partners in the past?
Not while he still needed them AFAIK
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:52 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Not while he still needed them AFAIK
And how far does your knowledge actually extend?
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:07 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Delvo is claiming that the only reason Trump isn't starting a war with North Korea is because he loves dictators.
The verb conjugation was "won't", not "isn't" or "hasn't". The subject was not past or present behavior but future behavior.

The inaction of other Presidents on this so far isn't hard to explain. The time for the suggested air strike simply hasn't come yet, for at least two separate reasons:
  • We didn't have this amount of stealth air strike capacity until recently, and the artillery holding Seoul hostage would have a chance to start firing first if a non-stealth strike were on the way. (Even now, it would be pushing things a bit, because it would be best to do much of it with fighters but most of that capacity we have now is in bombers while the new fighter force is still being built and many of the current fighters are used for training. But it would be possible now and is gradually getting easier as the stealth fighter inventory grows.)
  • They haven't yet reached the point of having weapons that can be used against us; early efforts in a new nuclear weapon program are quite large & heavy, and their latest ballistic missiles are short on range & reliability even with smaller lighter loads. There's no real threat to eliminate yet, right up until there is.

Trump's inaction on this so far is something he has in common with past Presidents. Ascribe that to the same reasons in all of their cases if you want, or say it's because the worse a dictator is the more he loves him, or say it's because he thinks a potted plant in the Oval Office told him not to do it yet in J J Walker's voice; it doesn't matter. The issue was what would happen in the future if/when the time does come. And at that point, nobody else's motivations matter. Obama, Bush, and Clinton will all not be President then. Trump might.

Also:
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Nothing has really changed since then except who's in the Oval Office. The basic US policy remains the same. But what was normal statecraft when Barack Obama was president becomes abnormal dictator-love when Donald Trump is president. This isn't me normalizing Donald Trump. This is Delvo abnormalizing him.
Different people with different personalities can indeed do the same thing for different reasons. (And Trump abnormalizes himself.) There's nothing mysterious or confusing about that fact, so there's no point in pretending not to get it... especially when it's not even relevant anyway.

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Old 7th March 2019, 08:38 PM   #106
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/u...e-revoked.html
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Cite?
Two seconds of Google searching.

You're welcome.
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:20 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Is that how close you think we are? One Secret Service agent away from nuclear Armageddon?

Sadly yes.

The agent goes out to get pop corn and distract the other agents
and in minutes the missiles launch. You can see the scenario play
out half way through this episode.
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:26 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Nuclear Apocalypse suggests an all out nuclear war between the US and Russia. Given Russia has never had such a close ally as POTUS, this may be the farthest we've been from it. All bets are off if Tweedledum decides to take a fancy to the notion of launching nukes against Western Europe, China or something equally stupid.
So NK nuking SK, Japan, and 4-5 targets in the US isn't apocalyptic enough for you?
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:43 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
How much brinkmanship do you think Kruschev would have dared, with Donald Trump for a counterparty?

On the other hand, the Cuban Missile Crisis started because Kennedy put nukes in Turkey - something far more destabilizing than anything Trump has done so far.
Wrong. They were there when Kennedy took office, and he was already making plans to remove them because they were obsolete when the Russians sent missiles to Cuba.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis
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Old 7th March 2019, 10:03 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
But re: the point of the OP- Does the football actually launch the nukes, or does it tell some Colonels some where to tell some Majors to tell some NCOs to warm up the missiles? Even in Dr. Strangelove there were recall codes, etc?

And/or, some mid level officer carries the football around all day. CinC requests he bring it over. CinC opens the brief case, starts to turn a key, enter a password, whatever. Officer winks to SS agent, no more Trump.

In any scenario, there ARE other people involved in a nuclear attack. Layers of them. On purpose. Otherwise all it would take in today's world is for the Pres-for-the-rest-of-his-short-life to click a button on his i-pad. It could be easier than sending a tweet. Which would be his next action.
.....

Why do people insist that there is a committee? Does it help you sleep better? The process is that the President selects targets from prepared packages and issues orders that go directly to launch commanders and ultimately to the people who turn the keys. It was designed to allow an immediate response when incoming missiles are detected minutes from landing. Everyone down the chain is trained to presume that an authenticated order from the President is legitimate and must be followed.

If you have evidence to the contrary, please cite.

Quote:
The secretary of defense has no legal position in the nuclear chain of command, and any attempts by a secretary of defense to prevent the president from exercising the authority to use nuclear weapons would be undemocratic and illegal. With or without Mattis, the president has unchecked and complete authority to launch nuclear weapons based on his sole discretion.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.8c8a8c4babee


Quote:
As President, Trump carries an ID card known as the “biscuit” that enables him to identify himself to officials at the Pentagon with unique codes letting them know he is authorizing a nuclear strike. He would also need to specify the type of attack he wanted to carry out; the different options are delineated in the nuclear football.

The U.S. has 800 warheads that are available for use within minutes of ordering a nuclear launch, says Reif; Approximately 400 warheads that are land based intercontinental ballistic missiles and roughly the same amount of submarine launched ballistic missiles.
.....
Once Trump has successfully conveyed his orders, Strategic Command, which has operational control over U.S. nuclear forces, would implement them. Reif says that the process of launching the warheads should take a little over 15 minutes—less if you don’t use submarine launched ballistic missiles—a system that was designed during the Cold War, when it was believed that the Russians had warheads that could reach the United States in under 30 minutes.
http://time.com/5085723/nuke-button-...s-north-korea/

Quote:
With a single phone call, the commander in chief has virtually unlimited power to rain down nuclear weapons on any adversarial regime and country at any time. You might imagine this awesome executive power would be hamstrung with checks and balances, but by law, custom and congressional deference there may be no responsibility where the president has more absolute control. There is no advice and consent by the Senate. There is no second-guessing by the Supreme Court.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-policy-213955

Quote:
Under the Constitution, no one could veto a bad call by a President Trump. The 90 launch officers who are always on duty in the Great Plains, along with their counterparts in submarines patrolling the oceans, would have no choice but to execute the most morally reprehensible order ever issued in the history of warfare.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/o...lear-keys.html

Sorry if you lose some sleep.

Last edited by Bob001; 7th March 2019 at 10:08 PM.
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Old 7th March 2019, 10:20 PM   #111
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For Trump to strike NK (or maybe Iran) with a single phone call, there must be a specific attack plan that can be executed - he can't share a Google Maps marker and tell them to nuke it.
I don't think there really is a plan on what to hit in NK besides a decapitation strike on the leadership.
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Old 8th March 2019, 05:57 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
For Trump to strike NK (or maybe Iran) with a single phone call, there must be a specific attack plan that can be executed - he can't share a Google Maps marker and tell them to nuke it.
I don't think there really is a plan on what to hit in NK besides a decapitation strike on the leadership.
Those plans are already made, and updated every day.
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Old 8th March 2019, 06:53 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
That's the thing, though: It wouldn't kill millions of innocent people. Mostly it would kill people in the North Korean military establishment.
Selective surgical nano-nukes? I thought they were all spent in 911.

Quote:
It's true that some innocents would probably die. And in the ensuing humanitarian crisis, millions of innocent people would undoubtedly suffer.
Personally, I think that is the main reason nobody does anything: There must be a dozen states with enough military power each to beat the daylights out of North Korea. But nobody would like to like to be the one to pick up the tab for the clean-up.

Quote:
But the problem of North Korea is that millions of innocent people are suffering and dying there anyway.
AH, so it's OK to put them out of their misery quick? ..... well ...

Quote:
And yes, there will be repercussions, which is why everybody has been unwilling to take that step so far. Which brings us back to Delvo's insinuation that Trump is somehow abnormal for not attacking North Korea.
*Shrug* ... I think the case is that Trump is not abnormal enough to attack North Korea.

Hans
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Old 8th March 2019, 11:34 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
But re: the point of the OP- Does the football actually launch the nukes, or does it tell some Colonels some where to tell some Majors to tell some NCOs to warm up the missiles? Even in Dr. Strangelove there were recall codes, etc?
In Dr Strangelove it was bombers, not missiles. And Fail Safe had bombers but no recall codes. And Olympus Has Fallen had missiles with recall codes. But Crimson Tide had missiles without recall codes.

I think it's probably a mistake to appeal to Hollywood in this context.

I visited the Titan Missile museum a couple years back. The Titan system has been replaced by the Minuteman, and almost all of the Titan launch sites have been dismantled. The museum includes one preserved silo and launch control room, and the guided tour includes them.

The way the docent explained the process at that end, the launch control crew gets a computerized message over a secure radio system. The launch crew receives the message, and compares its launch code to the codes listed in a binder in a safe in the launch control center.

If the crew finds a matching code in the binder, they input the associated codes into the launch control computer, which further validates the launch order and downloads the appropriate navigational instructions to the missile, for whichever target is represented by the launch code. The launch crew doesn't even know which target their missile has been assigned.

Once the computer is happy, and the computer reports that the missile is happy, the two launch control officers arm the system, turn their keys, and after that... god help us all.

What's not known is what exactly happens between when the president opens the football, supplies whatever authentication codes are required, makes his target selection, and transmits his launch orders to the missile command and control network; and when the launch sites receive their launch commands.

My impression is that it's designed to convert the President's launch order into computerized and coded instructions to the launch crews and their missiles, with as little delay as possible, and as little room for human intervention as possible.

But who knows how it really works. The details of the command and control linkage are probably one of the best kept secrets of the US nuclear arsenal.

For all we know, the entire business with the Football might be a ruse. The deterrent effect of MAD is essentially a Mexican Standoff. That only works as long as you actually keep your gun pointed at the other guy's head. But nobody says the gun has to be loaded. Perhaps all that's really necessary is that the Football creates a credible impression that the US is always spring-loaded to order a retaliation strike. You're not going to find a window of opportunity, where the president is having beers with cops and college professors, or playing golf, or banging his mistress, or posting on Twitter, where you could hope to get away with a surprise attack. Maybe creating that impression has been the Football's job all along. In which case, we better hope nobody ever finds out.

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Old 8th March 2019, 11:44 AM   #115
William Parcher
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Somewhere in that mix there has got to be a good guy with a gun close by who can shoot the President dead before the button is pushed.
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Old 8th March 2019, 11:53 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by MRC_Hans View Post
Selective surgical nano-nukes? I thought they were all spent in 911.
Accurate low-yield nukes are a thing. Not every atomic bomb is a monstrous airburst city-killer.

They're still big as explosions go, but the kind of widespread devastation you're probably imagining from decades of Hollywood apocalypses isn't required anymore.

Please don't do the dickish thing here. I'm trying to be realistic. If all you have in response is snark, what's the point of continuing the conversation? Just recognize that you're triggered, and have nothing useful to contribute, and bow out. If you won't, I will.
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Old 8th March 2019, 11:54 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Somewhere in that mix there has got to be a good guy with a gun close by who can shoot the President dead before the button is pushed.
The fifth estate solution.
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:14 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The fifth estate solution.
I don't know what that is.

Oh also about the possible football ruse. There could be deceptions in other areas as well. It could be true that lies about the football are told to each and every President. The President thinks he can order a rapid strike of his choosing - but in actuality he can't. He has been lied to and does not discover it until he actually tries out his insanity.

Then he is assassinated before he can tell anyone that his immediate nuclear weapon control was all a lie.
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:28 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I don't know what that is.

Oh also about the possible football ruse. There could be deceptions in other areas as well. It could be true that lies about the football are told to each and every President. The President thinks he can order a rapid strike of his choosing - but in actuality he can't. He has been lied to and does not discover it until he actually tries out his insanity.

Then he is assassinated before he can tell anyone that his immediate nuclear weapon control was all a lie.
The term is (as far as I know) mine, but the solution it refers to is exactly what you're describing.

My choice of the term, "fifth estate" is a reference to the fourth estate. Maybe "deep state" would be a better way to put it.
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Old 8th March 2019, 12:35 PM   #120
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Except I don't know what fourth estate is. And I don't know what deep state is.

I really do avoid following politics. I very rarely talk about politics and when I do I am deficient in all kinds of knowledge of that realm.

ETA: I clicked the link and learned what fourth estate is.
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