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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 16th August 2022, 11:18 PM   #3161
Aridas
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A number of YouTubers have commented on this recently, especially in light of the senior Russian commanders apparently leaving the area. Recapturing Kherson is doable in their opinion, but successfully crossing the Dnieper River will be a much greater challenge.
Personally, I'd say that recapturing Kherson is important. Crossing the Dnieper is probably not particularly important. A token force can likely defend against attempted Russian crossings, while the rest of the forces can focus elsewhere. Retaking Melitopol and breaking the land bridge, for example, followed by sweeping down towards Crimea. If that happens, restoring Dnieper crossings would be more useful.
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Old 17th August 2022, 01:16 AM   #3162
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I talked with a refugee from Dnipropetrowsk oblast yesterday. She told me her home is about 40 km from the current front (in territory still held by Russia), and that her sister, who is still there, can hear the booms of artillery all the time. She was unable to pinpoint on Google Maps her home town - apparently a bit South of, but within the metropolitan area of, the city Dnipro (4th largest in Ukraine).

In that context (of constant artillery use): I read this morning that, according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions. So clearly Russia will run out of ammo any day now. As they have since May.
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Old 17th August 2022, 01:56 AM   #3163
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I talked with a refugee from Dnipropetrowsk oblast yesterday. She told me her home is about 40 km from the current front (in territory still held by Russia), and that her sister, who is still there, can hear the booms of artillery all the time. She was unable to pinpoint on Google Maps her home town - apparently a bit South of, but within the metropolitan area of, the city Dnipro (4th largest in Ukraine).

In that context (of constant artillery use): I read this morning that, according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions. So clearly Russia will run out of ammo any day now. As they have since May.
There does seem to be something of a disjoint between the news coming out of Ukraine and what seems to be happening on the ground.

We've been assured that Russian logistics are a shambles and that the HIMARS has made the situation even worse from a Russian point of view by destroying stores of ammunition and fuel and by forcing the Russians to distribute their stores in a greater number of smaller sites further away from the front lines.

And yet, Russia is still managing to get tens of thousands of shells to their artillery for them to use every day.

I don't doubt the truth of the strikes, but I think the effect of the strikes may have been overstated and/or Russian logistics aren't quite as bad as has been portrayed. For example, the bridges over the Dnieper are apparently impassable for heavy vehicles so the Russian forces west of the river cannot be effectively resupplied. They are still holding out against the Ukrainian counterattack in that area which means they either have sufficient stockpiles and/or they're able to be resupplied.

It's the same with the shortage of manpower and low morale among front line Russian units. There's little doubt that they're short of men, their tactics clearly show it and the desperate steps they seem to be taking to find new recruits only reinforces that view. They are still throwing men into the meatgrinder which means there must still be men who are either willing, or who have been coerced, to go there.
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:00 AM   #3164
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I think you will find the amount of shelling has reduced significantly. Hence the slow advance in the West being reduced to a crawl.
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:17 AM   #3165
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There does seem to be something of a disjoint between the news coming out of Ukraine and what seems to be happening on the ground.

We've been assured that Russian logistics are a shambles and that the HIMARS has made the situation even worse from a Russian point of view by destroying stores of ammunition and fuel and by forcing the Russians to distribute their stores in a greater number of smaller sites further away from the front lines.
...
Yep. Plus the asymmetry between what gets reported here and what doesn't. For example the latest attack on an air field. Nope was't Ukraine doing it in Crimea. Was Russian air-launched cruise missiles, out of Belarusian territory, hitting an air base in Western Ukraine.

The harrassment and attrition are mutual.

There was an interview though with a Russian military expert, a member of the Russian security establishment, with a Russian military analysis journal or somesuch. Expert worried that over time, the quality of Ukrainian equipment and troops is increasing, that of the Russians decreasing. Does this mean Russian experts say publicly they think Russia may lose this war? Unlikely. A member of der Führer's apparat are probably not entirely free to criticize, or even call this war "war". A possible interpretation is that they realize in Moscow they need to considerably increase their capabilities (quantity and quality) to regain momentum, and start to indroduce into the public sphere the idea of this being a full-blown war that requires full mobilization and war economy.

I don't think we have seen the worst yet. Shoigu the other day saying that there is no reason to use nukes sounds a bit like they are starting to consider nukes. You only deny things that are at least plausibly true.
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:20 AM   #3166
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I think you will find the amount of shelling has reduced significantly. Hence the slow advance in the West being reduced to a crawl.
Why do you think so? ( You mean *East, right?
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:48 AM   #3167
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I think you will find the amount of shelling has reduced significantly. Hence the slow advance in the West being reduced to a crawl.
Oystein reported:

Quote:
according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions
That's still an enormous amount of ordnance and not much less than the peak.
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Old 17th August 2022, 03:28 AM   #3168
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Oystein reported:



That's still an enormous amount of ordnance and not much less than the peak.
What was the peak?
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Old 17th August 2022, 04:15 AM   #3169
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Originally Posted by Oystein
Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Worthless post containing only Poisoning the well logical fallacy. ?
You would never do that, right?

Right??
Oh, wait:
Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
... It means "Russian Claimed Control" AKA: WORTHLESS!
?..
You would
Bad attempt at fake equivalency. Sorry, no go.

Let's break it down: There is no photo nor video evidence by Russians of location, there is no photo nor video evidence of UA forces shooting at Russian units there or of Russian units shooting from there and UA command said noting about that crossroad (do note that they said according to DefMon3 nothing about it). All we have are Russian claims which have been lies and misinformation in 90% of cases. When you get caught so many times lying, why should anybody take your claim at seriously at all?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Can't you do any better? Where is evidence that Russians control it? Or did HIMARS destroy it?
Control what? I did not talk about Russia controlling, or claiming to control, any "it". I merely pointed out that your source is biased. Rather obviously so. That is NOT "poisoning the well". I do not say that source is "always lying" or anything of the sort. Just that it is biased. Just read it. It's totally obvious. Biased is not the same as wrong. We are supposedly skeptics here. Skeptics do not take biased, secondary sources on blind faith.
You think I just watch only one source? Currently I use 24 sources daily and often check linked reports from others too. I used to be critical of DefMon3, but he improved a lot and so fare there are no known contradictions to reality. His his matches the one of ISW and Jomini of the West.

(Heh, looking forward to how many different interpretations will be concocted by others.)

Reminder: So far no video or photo was assigned/geolocated to outskirt of Bakhmut.

Originally Posted by The Don
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I think you will find the amount of shelling has reduced significantly. Hence the slow advance in the West being reduced to a crawl.
Oystein reported:

Quote:
according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions
That's still an enormous amount of ordnance and not much less than the peak.
Sorry, but there was no link to alleged statement. But it strongly resembled the one said in June before arrival of HIMARS. Since then I never saw such number in any official statement.
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Old 17th August 2022, 04:18 AM   #3170
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
What was the peak?
Around 60,000 is the highest I can recall being mentioned.
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Old 17th August 2022, 06:34 AM   #3171
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Around 60,000 is the highest I can recall being mentioned.
All those artillery shells and they're barely, barely advancing. That must be embarrassing for them.
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:17 AM   #3172
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
All those artillery shells and they're barely, barely advancing. That must be embarrassing for them.

Perun pointed this out in his artillery video. The fact that they are expending so much ordnance and achieving so little is a sign of how incompetent and incapable the Russian army is.

Additionally, for those who seem to discount the claims of most Western military experts that the Russians can't possibly sustain this level of fire indefinitely, let's do a little math. The cost of a Czech 152mm artillery shell, according to this web site that's raising money for the Ukrainian armed forces, is US$812, and the cost of a 122mm rocket is US$641. I'll assume Putin can buy one of each for about US$500, due to purchasing-power parity advantages and coercion. That's US$30 million per day, or about US$11 billion per year. Russia's entire defense budget is only about US$60 billion. And Russia's finances are only going to get worse as the sanctions bite and the global recession hits.

ETA: And that's without considering barrel wear.
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:20 AM   #3173
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
All those artillery shells and they're barely, barely advancing. That must be embarrassing for them.
Not just embarrassing, expensive too. I know they've got big stockpiles, but they've got to be burning through those at that rate. Plus, they're effectively running through, what, 20+ barrels per day at that rate, and those will need replacing too. All this together is a big strain on logistics and production.
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:41 AM   #3174
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Perun pointed this out in his artillery video. The fact that they are expending so much ordnance and achieving so little is a sign of how incompetent and incapable the Russian army is.

Additionally, for those who seem to discount the claims of most Western military experts that the Russians can't possibly sustain this level of fire indefinitely, let's do a little math. The cost of a Czech 152mm artillery shell, according to this web site that's raising money for the Ukrainian armed forces, is US$812, and the cost of a 122mm rocket is US$641. I'll assume Putin can buy one of each for about US$500, due to purchasing-power parity advantages and coercion. That's US$30 million per day, or about US$11 billion per year. Russia's entire defense budget is only about US$60 billion. And Russia's finances are only going to get worse as the sanctions bite and the global recession hits.

ETA: And that's without considering barrel wear.
This fails to account for the insane stockpiles of artillery ammo that russia inherited from the USSR.
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:46 AM   #3175
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Not just embarrassing, expensive too. I know they've got big stockpiles, but they've got to be burning through those at that rate. Plus, they're effectively running through, what, 20+ barrels per day at that rate, and those will need replacing too. All this together is a big strain on logistics and production.
IIRC, barrels are long lead time items. Even if you have the money it takes time to make them and there are only so many machines available to make them.

ETA:

Found something maybe a little too deep of a dive for this discussion. 1972 US army paper on Russian artillery production during WW 2. It is about 300+ pages long. Going to have to dig into that tonight.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD0740789.pdf
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:55 AM   #3176
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
This fails to account for the insane stockpiles of artillery ammo that russia inherited from the USSR.
Not totally. The thing is, Russia can't just drain their stockpiles to zero. They NEED to keep a large stockpile, because they have other borders they need to be able to defend, just in case. And they likely don't have all the ammo from the USSR anyways. A lot of it was probably sold off, some of it has probably gone bad from inadequate storage conditions, and some of it has likely been used up in previous conflicts (Chechnya, Ukraine 2014, Georgia, Syria). The need to keep stockpiles for other defense contingencies means that running out of ammo that they can use in Ukraine likely is a serious concern, if the conflict keeps going.
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Old 17th August 2022, 07:58 AM   #3177
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How big of a stockpile could Russia have? If you're burning through a million shells every 8-9 days (and the barrels, as some have mentioned) then I can't imagine that's sustainable. Even with the USSR stock, etc.

Do they have billions of shells? Trillions? How many barrels would they stockpile and how long are they good for? So many questions.
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Old 17th August 2022, 08:06 AM   #3178
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
IIRC, barrels are long lead time items. Even if you have the money it takes time to make them and there are only so many machines available to make them.
Fun fact: one of the reasons they were able to develop and deploy the GBU-28 in an amazingly short time period (around 3 weeks!) is that they actually used existing M110 howitzer barrels for the casing of the initial batch of bombs. That saved them a lot of time trying to manufacture that from scratch. The casings are now made specifically for the bombs, but as you say, even with unlimited money to throw at the problem, it takes a lot of time to produce that sort of item, and production capacity is limited.
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Old 17th August 2022, 08:16 AM   #3179
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Fun fact: one of the reasons they were able to develop and deploy the GBU-28 in an amazingly short time period (around 3 weeks!) is that they actually used existing M110 howitzer barrels for the casing of the initial batch of bombs. That saved them a lot of time trying to manufacture that from scratch. The casings are now made specifically for the bombs, but as you say, even with unlimited money to throw at the problem, it takes a lot of time to produce that sort of item, and production capacity is limited.
I was aware of that as it was reported on the news at the time. I was a national guard infantry officer during the Gulf War. But like most national guard combat arms units, we were not going anywhere during that war.

Further back in the 80s, the MLRS first deployed to replacing those 8" guns that eventually went on to become bombs. I was nearing the end of my enlistment in Germany at that time. Missed seeing those guns since they were of comfort knowing that those of us involved in covering force operations for what would have been WW 3 would have been a high priority for their support. The MLRS was of unknown quality at the time and their units were very small compared to what they replaced.

When the 5000 pound bunker busters came out and the news of how they made them was reported I ended up with a warm, fuzzy feeling about them. It was like an old friend found a new job.
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Old 17th August 2022, 08:22 AM   #3180
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
How big of a stockpile could Russia have? If you're burning through a million shells every 8-9 days (and the barrels, as some have mentioned) then I can't imagine that's sustainable. Even with the USSR stock, etc.

Do they have billions of shells? Trillions? How many barrels would they stockpile and how long are they good for? So many questions.
Here's one attempt to figure that out:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


He argues that the 60k/day rate is likely overstated, and thinks it's probably closer to 10k per day. He also estimates 5-15 million shell stockpile, so they can still last a long time. But not forever, and even with an unlimited stockpile, the logistics burden of delivering them from the front is a serious problem.
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Old 17th August 2022, 08:32 AM   #3181
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Perun pointed this out in his artillery video. The fact that they are expending so much ordnance and achieving so little is a sign of how incompetent and incapable the Russian army is.

Additionally, for those who seem to discount the claims of most Western military experts that the Russians can't possibly sustain this level of fire indefinitely, let's do a little math. The cost of a Czech 152mm artillery shell, according to this web site that's raising money for the Ukrainian armed forces, is US$812, and the cost of a 122mm rocket is US$641. I'll assume Putin can buy one of each for about US$500, due to purchasing-power parity advantages and coercion. That's US$30 million per day, or about US$11 billion per year. Russia's entire defense budget is only about US$60 billion. And Russia's finances are only going to get worse as the sanctions bite and the global recession hits.

ETA: And that's without considering barrel wear.
Yeah but none of that means Russia can manufacture huge amounts of artillery shells at those kinds of costs. They only have capacity to build so many and gearing up could mean needing a large expense in building new facilities, expanding mines, recruiting new workers rounding up slaves to work etc, which all takes money and time.
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Old 17th August 2022, 09:30 AM   #3182
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Reading this article that came from this tweet, it sounds like some upbeat news.

Quote:
But war observers also say the strikes on Crimea are degrading Russia's ability to fend off Ukraine's telegraphed counteroffensive in Kherson, the strategically important coastal region north of the Crimean peninsula. "Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine including those in western Kherson Oblast," the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank assessed on Tuesday.

"Russia's possibilities on the battlefield are being limited" by Ukraine's strikes in Crimea, independent Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin tells the Times. "Crimea is the only way to support the grouping of troops in the Kherson and Zaporizka regions. Otherwise, this grouping of troops does not exist."

The "attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control" of Kherson city, ISW's analysts write. "Ukraine's targeting of Russian ground lines of communication and logistic and support assets in Crimea is consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive effort that has also targeted bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian logistical support elements in occupied Kherson Oblast."
If I'm reading it right that means that Ukraine is doing a great job at tying this all together. The attacks in Crimea are going to have a significant impact on the, not, counteroffensive surrounding Kherson. That sounds significantly better for Ukraine as they're able to coordinate attacks for a maximum impact.
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Old 17th August 2022, 10:00 AM   #3183
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Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:

t.me/DPSUkr/5718

[someone linkify this please]

If they can keep up this level of attrition, it will seriously degrade Russia's ability to wage war in the South.

Can you imagine how sweaty it must be to be stationed at one of these bases? I don't think the psychological effect should be underestimated.

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Old 17th August 2022, 10:03 AM   #3184
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t.me/DPSUkr/5718
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Old 17th August 2022, 12:25 PM   #3185
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A Russian soldier has fled Russia and is publishing an account of his time in the war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-invasion
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Old 17th August 2022, 01:54 PM   #3186
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post

In that context (of constant artillery use): I read this morning that, according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions. So clearly Russia will run out of ammo any day now. As they have since May.
They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era. They probably run out of guns before they run out of ammo. If they really are firing 60000 rounds a day they are wearing out 30 gun barriers every day or almost 1000 per month. They can still keep shooting those guns until they explode but they are not likely hit anything of military significance.
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:24 PM   #3187
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I'm wondering what shape the old shells they have in stock are in. If they used cordite for the shells they will find that as it ages it degrades into a faster burning chemical mix. This could create overpressure issues in gun barrels.
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Old 17th August 2022, 02:26 PM   #3188
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era.
How do you figure?

How many of those were reliably manufactured to begin with?

How many are still serviceable after all these years of storage?

How many were appropriated and sold off by black-marketeers?

How many were actually manufactured anywhere but on paper?
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Old 17th August 2022, 03:06 PM   #3189
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
I'm wondering what shape the old shells they have in stock are in. If they used cordite for the shells they will find that as it ages it degrades into a faster burning chemical mix. This could create overpressure issues in gun barrels.
As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.
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Old 17th August 2022, 03:07 PM   #3190
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Lots of RUssian equipment going boom.

In the words of Commander Susan ivanova...

Quote:
No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow. What? Look, somebody's got to have some damn perspective around here! Boom.
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Old 17th August 2022, 03:47 PM   #3191
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
A Russian soldier has fled Russia and is publishing an account of his time in the war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-invasion
Wow. That's a helluva read.
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Old 17th August 2022, 11:58 PM   #3192
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...329539073?s=20

Quote:
Russian 2S7M suffered a catastrophic barrel failure, with a 103kg shell traveling about 2100mph (960m/s), I would not want to be anywhere near that when it went boom.

Also a sign that Russian crews may be pushing their current artillery systems to the edge of reliability.

which got this reply photo of a captured 30mm cannon




Given these and the Russian approach to safety, I wouldn't bet against your assessment.
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Old 18th August 2022, 12:30 AM   #3193
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Long WaPo article about the road to war and the Russian plan


https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...e-road-to-war/

Also gives the lie to a lot of the Russian propaganda talking points about their aims
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Old 18th August 2022, 12:54 AM   #3194
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...329539073?s=20

which got this reply photo of a captured 30mm cannon


Given these and the Russian approach to safety, I wouldn't bet against your assessment.
Yes, armed forces in the West would consider the quality of much of the Russian equipment to be deplorable and wouldn't consider using them to destruction in the way that the Russians have done on at least one occasion.

OTOH, they seem good enough for what Russia appears to want to to - fire large volumes of comparatively inaccurate ordnance to reduce large parts of Ukraine to rubble. It doesn't seem to matter to Russia if they flatten a school or a hospital or how many civilian lives are lost - it's all part of their scorched earth approach to grinding out the war.

I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.
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Old 18th August 2022, 01:01 AM   #3195
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, armed forces in the West would consider the quality of much of the Russian equipment to be deplorable and wouldn't consider using them to destruction in the way that the Russians have done on at least one occasion.

OTOH, they seem good enough for what Russia appears to want to to - fire large volumes of comparatively inaccurate ordnance to reduce large parts of Ukraine to rubble. It doesn't seem to matter to Russia if they flatten a school or a hospital or how many civilian lives are lost - it's all part of their scorched earth approach to grinding out the war.

I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.
Something as large as the Russian armed forces in Ukraine can withstand a lot of "corrosion" before it becomes ineffective. That doesn't mean that the corrosion isn't happening.
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Old 18th August 2022, 02:21 AM   #3196
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era. They probably run out of guns before they run out of ammo. If they really are firing 60000 rounds a day they are wearing out 30 gun barriers every day or almost 1000 per month. They can still keep shooting those guns until they explode but they are not likely hit anything of military significance.
And they had ammo dumps blowing up long before the war as well:
https://www.overtdefense.com/2020/10...ep-blowing-up/

Poor safety standards, low moral, abuse of conscripts.... it goes back a long way.
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Old 18th August 2022, 05:37 AM   #3197
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...329539073?s=20



which got this reply photo of a captured 30mm cannon




Given these and the Russian approach to safety, I wouldn't bet against your assessment.
Precise machining is for suckers!!!!!!!!!

I wonder if that thing could even be aimed right.
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Old 18th August 2022, 06:33 AM   #3198
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.
I wonder this as well.
Normally you would rotate stock, the newer stuff goes to the back and you bring the older stuff to the front.

If they haven't been rotating stock for 10 years, let's say, they could just now be getting to the 10 year old stuff that has been in the back of the storage shed.

Their track record seems to be lack of maintenance and to some conscripts rotating stock may not seem like a good use of time.
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Old 18th August 2022, 06:37 AM   #3199
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Precise machining is for suckers!!!!!!!!!

I wonder if that thing could even be aimed right.
If it always pulls to one side, then you can correct for that. I'd be more worried about what that means for catastrophic barrel failure than what it means for aiming.
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Old 18th August 2022, 06:56 AM   #3200
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.
I saw a thing highlighting Russian tactics:

Shell an area for a time - hours, days, multiple days. Not a large area necessarily, not with accurate artillery, but just hammer it for a good long time.

Maybe do a bit of shoot and scoot, but so far Ukrainian counter-battery fire has been of very limited effectiveness. Efforts to limit supplies of ordnance delivered to the Russian guns has had some success, but not actual destruction of the guns. And they seem to be working through the logistics problems a bit. The Russians are not as flush with ammo as they were a month ago, but they've got more than now than they did in that first week or two after HIMARS equipment first starting hitting the ammo unloading points.

Finally, after hours or days of utterly hammering an area, send in a platoon or two of infantry. That's all, no huge movement of thousands of soldiers, literally just one or two platoons sized groups.

If they don't face much resistance, they take the area and dig in - mind you, they are not taking large areas when they do this, just a small village, a city block or two, or a patch of forest, even just a forested strip between fields.

If they face resistance, pull the infantry back. Go back to the first step (pound it with artillery) and start over. They don't need good infantry to do this because they don't try very hard. The Russian infantry are just there to mop up survivors of the artillery barrage, and if there are too many survivors, they just pull back and let the big guns go back to work.

This is a pretty low risk strategy, and the most crucial bit - the artillery troops - are not taking much casualties at all. They can keep it up as long as they've got artillery guns and ammo. They don't need much accuracy, it does not matter so much if the target is an area some hundreds of meters across being targeted by dozens or hundreds of guns for a day or two continuously.

It is, however, a very slow strategy.

It seems like everyone is settling in for a long-duration war.
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