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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 29th May 2022, 10:03 AM   #321
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
You know, I had a colleague who used that particular cliché about Islamic State. I asked about the Yazidi sex slaves, and he excused that too.
Are you actually saying ISIS are freedom fighters?
I'm saying every movement has its bad apples, and nobody is perfect. It's not like America doesn't have its own share of problematic types. Why would Turkey want to be in a mutual defense alliance with nations that provide aid and comfort to enemies of the Turkish state?
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Old 29th May 2022, 12:35 PM   #322
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Perun has a great new video about the hows and whys of corruption in the Russian military.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4
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Old 29th May 2022, 01:18 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Perun has a great new video about the hows and whys of corruption in the Russian military.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4
Ha, I was about to post that.

if you prefer the embedded version

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From the comments, and something that a couple of posters in this thread might like in particular - the rest will need the subtitles as it's in Finnish.

A Finnish Intelligence colonel describing his views (in 2018) why Russia does things the way it does and looking at "strategic culture"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw
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Old 29th May 2022, 02:50 PM   #324
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To poke at two things that may be of potential interest -

First, I've seen the claim that hospitals in Crimea are no longer accepting civilian patients because they're too overloaded with wounded Russian military forces. I obviously can't confirm such, but I can't really say that it's implausible.

Second, apparently many of the military contracts for the Russians will end in about 2 days. How this will actually affect Russia's forces in practice is hard to say, of course, but we can hope that a large portion of that group will be able to use the opportunity to get out of there.
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Old 29th May 2022, 03:07 PM   #325
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I would never encourage a time-expired soldier, or large groups of such soldiers, to shoot their officers and skedaddle. The Mother and Father Land would weep tears of grief -- yes, and honk snot of sorrow -- at the ingratitude of its children.
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Old 29th May 2022, 03:50 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
But Russia has solved its supply problems and is advancing inexorably now! /s
They didn't solve anything. They are just shorter and away from raiders.

The logistics of getting artillery shells to artillery that is behind the lines is much simpler.

Russia also had the advantage that Ukraine isn't randomly leveling Russian cities while Russia is quite happy to level anything Ukrainian, even cities it is supposedly taking for it's separatist allies.

It can also moved materiel around safely in Russian territory.

The Ukrainians don't have that luxury.
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Old 29th May 2022, 03:53 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To poke at two things that may be of potential interest -

First, I've seen the claim that hospitals in Crimea are no longer accepting civilian patients because they're too overloaded with wounded Russian military forces. I obviously can't confirm such, but I can't really say that it's implausible.

Second, apparently many of the military contracts for the Russians will end in about 2 days. How this will actually affect Russia's forces in practice is hard to say, of course, but we can hope that a large portion of that group will be able to use the opportunity to get out of there.
Apparently a lot of conscripts found they were required to sign contracts. Hence the lie about no conscripts fighting.
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Old 29th May 2022, 03:53 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To poke at two things that may be of potential interest -

First, I've seen the claim that hospitals in Crimea are no longer accepting civilian patients because they're too overloaded with wounded Russian military forces. I obviously can't confirm such, but I can't really say that it's implausible.

Second, apparently many of the military contracts for the Russians will end in about 2 days. How this will actually affect Russia's forces in practice is hard to say, of course, but we can hope that a large portion of that group will be able to use the opportunity to get out of there.
I have a feeling that when they try to leave, they will find that they've already signed a new contract.
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Old 29th May 2022, 04:40 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
I have a feeling that when they try to leave, they will find that they've already signed a new contract.
Yeah, like some kind of 'auto-renew clause' buried deep in the fine print.
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Old 29th May 2022, 06:21 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm saying every movement has its bad apples, and nobody is perfect. It's not like America doesn't have its own share of problematic types. Why would Turkey want to be in a mutual defense alliance with nations that provide aid and comfort to enemies of the Turkish state?
To constrain and gain additional protection from other enemies.
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Old 29th May 2022, 07:15 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They didn't solve anything. They are just shorter and away from raiders.
That is a solution.

But I wouldn't depend on that being the only improvement. One of the claims I've seen about their logistics problems in the north is that a lot of units sent to Belarus for "exercises" sold off a bunch of their diesel fuel, because that's just the sort of corruption that's endemic, and besides, they're only in Belarus for exercises. Just leave the tank parked, claim you drove it around in circles, and nobody will care where the fuel went. They didn't actually need it anyways.

Until they did, and they didn't have it, but it was too late at that point.

Well, now that they KNOW they're in a war, selling off fuel that's supposed to be sent to the front is probably harder to get away with.
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Old 29th May 2022, 09:17 PM   #332
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I very much liked the Finnish Lecture about Russia's strategic culture.

It's a clear authoritarian feature, very much in evidence in the US Right, that lying for the Cause is what you DO, and that your supporters will admire you for getting away with lying and cheating in the furtherance of the cause.
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Old 29th May 2022, 11:37 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
But Russia has solved its supply problems and is advancing inexorably now! /s
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They didn't solve anything. They are just shorter and away from raiders.

The logistics of getting artillery shells to artillery that is behind the lines is much simpler.

Russia also had the advantage that Ukraine isn't randomly leveling Russian cities while Russia is quite happy to level anything Ukrainian, even cities it is supposedly taking for it's separatist allies.

It can also moved materiel around safely in Russian territory.

The Ukrainians don't have that luxury.
Yes, this are exactly the points I was trying to make when I said that the Russians seemed to have addressed their logistics issues.

The Russians seem to have learned that they are incapable of fighting a mobile, "intelligent", war on multiple fronts and have completely changed their tactics and switched to an attritional war on a single front.

As you point out, Russia have no qualms about turning towns and cities into rubble and killing thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of civilians. It's not pretty, it's not clever, but it is brutally effective - and more importantly, it's very difficult to stop.
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Old 29th May 2022, 11:54 PM   #334
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The UKs MoD assessment is that Russia is sustaining devastating losses:

Quote:
Russia has likely suffered devastating losses amongst its mid and junior ranking officers in the conflict.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...43716840284161

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be stopping Russian forces from levelling cities, slaughtering civilians and slowly taking over the rubble.

Quote:
Describing the Russian tactics, Haidai says: “They would be shelling for three, four, five hours and then advance. Those who are attacking are being killed, and then shelling starts again, and then another attack. And this would be happening until they are able to break through our positions somewhere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
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Old 30th May 2022, 12:06 AM   #335
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To poke at some changes...

Ukrainian forces might be beginning to withdraw from Severodonetsk. Doesn't mean that they're actually giving up the city yet, of course. Russia's still trying to focus on taking it, or at least the rubble of it. The caution that Russia's apparently employing when it comes to their vehicles there now suggests that Russia's running out of vehicles, though, too, much as forces are likely continuing to be diverted towards the city, such as from Lyman.

Ukraine's counteroffensive east of Kherson apparently continues, supposedly mostly with gains that have driven Russians back to areas that are much less defensible, but Russia may also have successfully counterattacked and retaken a couple settlements. Still, that counterattack might have cost them Snihurivka? Maybe? Fog of war is very much still in play on that front and the forces involved seem to be smaller and more mobile to my understanding, so newly reported changes in territory should be taken with notable caution in multiple ways.

Ukraine's counteroffensive near Izyum continues as well and might have taken back a settlement to the south.

Russia's advances from Popasna seem to have stalled on all fronts. A little to the north of that on the eastern front, Ukraine's apparently claiming to have retaken Toshkivka.
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Old 30th May 2022, 12:50 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To poke at some changes...

Ukrainian forces might be beginning to withdraw from Severodonetsk. Doesn't mean that they're actually giving up the city yet, of course. Russia's still trying to focus on taking it, or at least the rubble of it. The caution that Russia's apparently employing when it comes to their vehicles there now suggests that Russia's running out of vehicles, though, too, much as forces are likely continuing to be diverted towards the city, such as from Lyman.

Ukraine's counteroffensive east of Kherson apparently continues, supposedly mostly with gains that have driven Russians back to areas that are much less defensible, but Russia may also have successfully counterattacked and retaken a couple settlements. Still, that counterattack might have cost them Snihurivka? Maybe? Fog of war is very much still in play on that front and the forces involved seem to be smaller and more mobile to my understanding, so newly reported changes in territory should be taken with notable caution in multiple ways.

Ukraine's counteroffensive near Izyum continues as well and might have taken back a settlement to the south.

Russia's advances from Popasna seem to have stalled on all fronts. A little to the north of that on the eastern front, Ukraine's apparently claiming to have retaken Toshkivka.
Similar theme to your post and riffing on some of the comments about Russia's ability to advance behind artillery


Part of a thread with far more reasoning in the others - this is just a key takeaway.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/...SmgWaaHnaZZrKw

Quote:
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien


That you would assault a city before surrounding it, starving its defenders of supplies and even bombarding it more is a sign that they believe that they cant do this. My guess is that they cant do this as they dont have the vehicles to encircle the town soon.
9:29 AM · May 29, 2022·Twitter Web App
If you don't envision resistance, then a direct assault on a city might be part of the plan. But that's definitely not the case
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Old 30th May 2022, 03:50 AM   #337
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If Russia is going to dig in and spend the winter in Ukraine, do they have the supply lines to keep that number of men fed and taken care of?
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Old 30th May 2022, 03:58 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
If Russia is going to dig in and spend the winter in Ukraine, do they have the supply lines to keep that number of men fed and taken care of?
If they keep to the areas they currently have under control - maybe - the supply lines are comparatively short and aren't exposed to Ukrainian attack.

If you were looking it in a bleakly comic way, every day there are fewer Russian mouths to feed, which makes the logistical challenge smaller.


In other news:

The Russians are reportedly planning to commit a further 70 BTGs primarily consisting of newly trained recruits with around 30 days worth of training. These BTGs are due to arrive on the front line in by the end of June.
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Old 30th May 2022, 04:47 AM   #339
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I wonder what more could the world do to help Ukraine? Long-range missiles would be useful. They could be used against installations inside Russia, taking the war to the invader. But what would be the effect of such an escalation?

Maybe it's time to take a risk. Appeasing a tyrant like Putin never ends well.
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Old 30th May 2022, 04:59 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
I wonder what more could the world do to help Ukraine? Long-range missiles would be useful. They could be used against installations inside Russia, taking the war to the invader. But what would be the effect of such an escalation?

Maybe it's time to take a risk. Appeasing a tyrant like Putin never ends well.
Maybe just accepting that if Russia wins, it wins?
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Old 30th May 2022, 05:32 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The UKs MoD assessment is that Russia is sustaining devastating losses:
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...43716840284161
Those are quite the numbers:

Quote:
As at 30 May Russian senior officer losses:

- 1 Admiral, 23 Generals, 1 Lt Colonel and 150 FSB officers arrested/suspended;
- 13 Generals KIA;
- 29 Colonels KIA (+1);
- 51 Lt Colonels KIA; &
- 8 Navy Captains KIA
I think at this point the Russians are blowing their last load, and when this current assault is over, they'll be pretty much done. It seems that Putin's plan is to gain ground then claim it as Russian, but I think no one is going to recognize that as a legitimate claim. There should be no impediment to Ukraine taking it all back, even if gradually.

I'd love to see Crimea, Donbas, and Transnitra cleansed of the Russian occupiers, which I think is not impossible in the long term. I think Russia has rendered itself somewhat toothless in the course of the current fiasco.

Perhaps wishful thinking.
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Old 30th May 2022, 05:43 AM   #342
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The fundamental problem Russia has in Ukraine is that there is no "win", at least none that anyone fighting in Ukraine can achieve. No matter what they do, the "win" happens when Putin says it does, and the hero will be whoever he selects.
Soldiers in the field have literally no higher ambition than to survive, which means all effort goes into ass-covering and looking out for no.1.
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Old 30th May 2022, 06:16 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
Those are quite the numbers:



I think at this point the Russians are blowing their last load, and when this current assault is over, they'll be pretty much done. It seems that Putin's plan is to gain ground then claim it as Russian, but I think no one is going to recognize that as a legitimate claim. There should be no impediment to Ukraine taking it all back, even if gradually.

I'd love to see Crimea, Donbas, and Transnitra cleansed of the Russian occupiers, which I think is not impossible in the long term. I think Russia has rendered itself somewhat toothless in the course of the current fiasco.

Perhaps wishful thinking.
https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/s...h-BfJypiX_y-lQ

Interesting thread on this.

TLDR. Now the war is ongoing, how much effort will Western countries' defence ministries put into providing publicly available information that might actually help those in the Russian regime by bypassing their own intelligence sources if those don't want to report bad news?
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Old 30th May 2022, 06:20 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The fundamental problem Russia has in Ukraine is that there is no "win", at least none that anyone fighting in Ukraine can achieve. No matter what they do, the "win" happens when Putin says it does, and the hero will be whoever he selects.
Soldiers in the field have literally no higher ambition than to survive, which means all effort goes into ass-covering and looking out for no.1.
I'm guessing that's why they're reportedly making extraordinary efforts to capture Severodonetsk, to be able to have claimed to have "de-Nazified" the whole of the Lukansk oblast - a victory of sorts.

I'm sure they would like to have added Donesk, or indeed the whole of the south of Ukraine, but Luhansk may be enough for now.
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Old 30th May 2022, 06:44 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Maybe just accepting that if Russia wins, it wins?
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Old 30th May 2022, 06:45 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
I'm not Ukraine's advisor. We were not discussing what Ukraine should do
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Old 30th May 2022, 06:52 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not Ukraine's advisor. We were not discussing what Ukraine should do
No, but you're happy to throw Ukraine to the dogs.
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Old 30th May 2022, 07:00 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Maybe just accepting that if Russia wins, it wins?
And what does "winning" look like for Russia? Ukraine finished as a nation state? As that's their ultimate aim. And what does this "accepting Russia's win" (if such a thing ever occurs) do to help Ukraine right now, which was the question.

This isn't some medieval battle when only one side will be left standing on the battlefield and the other side will all be dead or have run away.
It's a very complicated modern conflict between nation states fighting for multiple objectives, with millions of citizens they can replenish their armies with.

Unless one state is left incapable of governing it's land and can no longer form an army, then there is not going to be any clear cut win.
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Old 30th May 2022, 07:00 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Perun has a great new video about the hows and whys of corruption in the Russian military.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4
Finally finished watching it. Thanks for the link.
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Old 30th May 2022, 07:03 AM   #350
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
No, but you're happy to throw Ukraine to the dogs.
Yes, I am. Though I haven't thrown anyone anywhere. I'm merely watching as they get attacked.
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Old 30th May 2022, 07:16 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm saying every movement has its bad apples, and nobody is perfect.
Who would you say were the 'good apples' of Islamic State?

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not like America doesn't have its own share of problematic types. Why would Turkey want to be in a mutual defense alliance with nations that provide aid and comfort to enemies of the Turkish state?
The same could be said of every European country that has been targeted by ISIS.
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Old 30th May 2022, 07:17 AM   #352
The Don
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
And what does "winning" look like for Russia? Ukraine finished as a nation state? As that's their ultimate aim. And what does this "accepting Russia's win" (if such a thing ever occurs) do to help Ukraine right now, which was the question.

This isn't some medieval battle when only one side will be left standing on the battlefield and the other side will all be dead or have run away.
It's a very complicated modern conflict between nation states fighting for multiple objectives, with millions of citizens they can replenish their armies with.

Unless one state is left incapable of governing it's land and can no longer form an army, then there is not going to be any clear cut win.
You're right that there's little or no chance/risk that everyone will be killed or will have run away (though I suppose that there is a slim chance that all Russian forces could be withdrawn to where they were prior to the invasion - or possibly even further). Any resolution would have to be achieved at the negotiating table.

My concern is that Russia have repeatedly demonstrated that they are perfectly willing to tear up any previous treaty if they feel that it's in their interest to do so which will make for a very tricky calculation for Ukraine. IMO it means that Ukraine trading land for security isn't a viable option. OTOH ATM Russia wouldn't accept any terms which would leave Ukraine as a functioning state.
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Old 30th May 2022, 08:20 AM   #353
Michel H
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Originally Posted by Vixen
I don't think Michel H is trolling, I get the impression he is some kind of pacificist, which of course he is entitled to be.
No, he's not a pacifist, he is all for violence and war as long as it favours Russia, why else would he be encouraging their aggression?
I am not encouraging Russian aggression in Ukraine (and aggression there really is).

I believe that Russia was, around 2014, unfairly persecuted by Ukraine and its (much more powerful) Western allies, in the form of heavy sanctions, economic blockades and so on:
Quote:
Ukraine imposes economic blockade on a blacked-out Crimea
(https://www.ft.com/content/d5487eaa-...2-c1fb87bef7af).

Russia then misreacted by invading (much later, when it felt powerful enough, and sufficiently supported by China).

There is a difference between trying to understand Russian psychology on the one hand, and supporting whatever Russia does on the other.

I believe the presence of Russian troops where they are not welcomed by the local population (near Kharkiv for example) is not legitimate.

I also believe that this war is a consequence of sanction policy by the West, much more than possible NATO expansion. The West has developed a habit of imposing economic sanctions to Russia, China (think about Huawei for example) and many other countries, which generate anger, more military spending in targeted countries, and (in the case of Ukraine) finally military action.

The solution to this crisis is therefore (in my view):
(1) Crimea belongs to Russsia (accepted by all).
(2) The two Donbass republics are independent (accepted by all).
(3) Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Ukraine remains independent and chooses its alliances the way it likes.
(4) No more sanctions and censorship (this also applies to the West).

It would be most unfortunate that 100,000 people have to die before these simple ideas are finally understood, implemented and accepted as correct.

Last edited by Michel H; 30th May 2022 at 08:25 AM.
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Old 30th May 2022, 08:25 AM   #354
The Don
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post

The solution to this crisis is therefore (in my view):
(1) Crimea belongs to Russsia (accepted by all).
(2) The two Donbass republics are independent (accepted by all).
(3) Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Ukraine remains independent and chooses its alliances the way it likes.
(4) No more sanctions and censorship (this also applies to the West).
I agree with all of those - apart from numbers (1), (2) and (4).

To allow those would be to simply gift Russia all of their pre-invasion aims, allow them both time and money to re-arm and then have to repeat this all over again in 10 or 15 years time when Russia decides that it needs control over the whole of Ukraine's coast and control over Crimea's water and energy supplies.
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Old 30th May 2022, 08:44 AM   #355
Michel H
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I agree with all of those - apart from numbers (1), (2) and (4).

To allow those would be to simply gift Russia all of their pre-invasion aims, allow them both time and money to re-arm and then have to repeat this all over again in 10 or 15 years time when Russia decides that it needs control over the whole of Ukraine's coast and control over Crimea's water and energy supplies.
So it looks like you disagree with 75% of what I said.

But you did not explain how you would quickly stop this war, in practical terms.

I believe that the Russians would become much less hostile and potentially dangerous if they were not constantly attacked and persecuted by means of sanctions (when there is no "hot" war).

The naive ideas:
Quote:
Russia = bad
Ukraine and the West = good
won't stop this war quickly.

In order to stop this war quickly, it is imperative that the West reflects about their mistakes and strives to correct them.
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Old 30th May 2022, 08:51 AM   #356
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Begging the question of whether stopping the war quickly is or should be the most important goal.
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Old 30th May 2022, 08:52 AM   #357
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It has been pointed out to you repeatedly that Russia would not HAVE any sanctions had it not illegally invaded and annexed Crimea following a North-Korean style 'referendum' and had it not committed this vile act of aggression.
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Old 30th May 2022, 09:03 AM   #358
The Don
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
So it looks like you disagree with 75% of what I said.
Yeah, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
But you did not explain how you would quickly stop this war, in practical terms.
Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth to allow them to crush the Russian army, take the fight to Russia, cripple the Russian economy so that they cannot prosecute this war, and won't be in a position to start the next one.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I believe that the Russians would become much less hostile and potentially dangerous if they were not constantly attacked and persecuted by means of sanctions (when there is no "hot" war).
Have you not been paying attention to Russian actions in Crimea, Georgia, Syria, Chechnya and a host of other places ?

To portray Russia as a persecuted innocent is flat out wrong. Sanctions were applied in response to Russian aggression, not the other way around.
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Old 30th May 2022, 09:07 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
But you did not explain how you would quickly stop this war, in practical terms.
Actually you did not explain how Russia's capitulation and withdrawal from Ukraine wouldn't be the quickest way to stop this war. I mean, considering they had no legal or moral right to invade in the first place.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I believe that the Russians would become much less hostile and potentially dangerous if they were not constantly attacked and persecuted by means of sanctions (when there is no "hot" war).
Your belief defies fact and reason. The sanctions are only beginning to match the level of their aggression. They are criminals on the world stage, and they deserve to be held accountable.
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Old 30th May 2022, 09:11 AM   #360
Michel H
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
It has been pointed out to you repeatedly that Russia would not HAVE any sanctions had it not illegally invaded and annexed Crimea following a North-Korean style 'referendum' and had it not committed this vile act of aggression.
I quote again:
Quote:
According to the Gallup's survey performed on April 21–27, 82.8% of Crimean people consider the referendum results reflecting most Crimeans' views,[146] and 73.9% of Crimeans say Crimea's becoming part of Russia will make life better for themselves and their families, while 5.5% disagree.[146]

According to survey carried out by Pew Research Center in April 2014, the majority of Crimean residents say the referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%).[147]

According to a poll of the Crimeans by the Ukrainian branch of Germany's biggest market research organization, GfK, on January 16–22, 2015: "Eighty-two percent of those polled said they fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia, and another 11 percent expressed partial support. Only 4 percent spoke out against it. ... Fifty-one percent reported their well-being had improved in the past year."
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_C...ferendum_polls)
This doesn't seem North-Korean at all to me.

As far as I know, Ukraine and the West have shown very little interest for true democracy in Crimea and in the Donbass.
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