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Old 19th July 2020, 11:57 PM   #561
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Now for some potentially good news - one Pommy crowd is reporting a 79% reduction in severe disease. Yet to be peer-reviewed, of course.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022

If this one stacks up, I'd call game over on the virus - that's a massive improvement, and would cut the fatality rate to under 0.1%.
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Old 20th July 2020, 12:27 AM   #562
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Thanks.



Still troubled by "the virus can't find hosts"; viruses do not have volition, much less consciousness.

Now "population": it seems to be a term also defined, in part, by anthropomorphizing viruses. If people1 who are infected are quarantined, those quarantined have herd immunity, because the only people they could potentially infect with the virus have already been infected. IOW, there is not one population of people, but many.

Turning to vaccines: some would seem to be a means to attain herd immunity, in that people who have been successfully vaccinated cannot become infected.

Anyway, back to Rolfe (bold added): “Herd immunity is the level of population protection at which the virus can no longer find new hosts and dies out.” Is the "dying out"2 essential for herd immunity?

1works just as well for pigs, guppies, even azaleas
2more anthropomorphizing!
Rolfe's definition is reasonable. By convention herd immunity refers to acquired immunity, achieved either by immunisation or prior infection inducing immunity. Herd immunity does not require all members of the herd to be immune but sufficient for R to fall to less than one. Very simply if we assume in normal life R for Covid is 3 in a naive (non immune population) one person infects three others on average. If immunity is achieved in more than two thirds of the population then R will become less than one and although there may be outbreaks the infection should not propagate and should die out spontaneously. Conventionally we do not include quarantining or other interventions to reduce transmission as part of herd immunity. Clearly in real life these are additive.

In contrast the inherited immunity talked about is what is called innate immunity. This can include physical barriers like skin, but also non specific chemicals in the blood and responses to certain foreign substances. These are highly conserved in evolution and do not evolve rapidly. Whilst infectious pressures are important in evolution in general pathogens evolve more quickly than humans, so pathogens evolve to evade the immune response more quickly than the innate immune response evolves in humans.

Y. pestis, plague is interesting because it has complex ecology. It originates in ground living rodents in central asia (although is also now endemic elsewhere in the world). But is spread by a vector, the flea, which spreads the infection when it bites. Historical old world epidemics probably related to environmental events affecting rodent populations and spread of the infection into urban rats, and then to people bitten by rat fleas. Direct person to person spread of plague is rare, essentially only occurring in the rare pneumonic plague form. Plague is pathogenic (kills) its rodent hosts, so evolutionary changes are more likely to occur in rats with short generation times than humans. The germ probably only evolved as a pathogen five thousand years ago. So the the number of human generations exposed are relatively few, particularly given the episodic nature of plague events. It is also interesting as a pathogen the evolved from a fairly benign organism into a highly pathogenic infection that can infect a wide variety of species. This is a good example that there is not some natural law that pathogens become less virulent. This bacteria became more virulent over time.
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Old 20th July 2020, 12:37 AM   #563
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Now for some potentially good news - one Pommy crowd is reporting a 79% reduction in severe disease. Yet to be peer-reviewed, of course.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022

If this one stacks up, I'd call game over on the virus - that's a massive improvement, and would cut the fatality rate to under 0.1%.
The interesting thing is this is a drug to stimulate the immune system delivered direct to the lungs by nebuliser. The other drug the NHS has identified as helpful is dexamethasone given orally that is an immune suppressant. Can you give both? Will they be additive or inhibit each other? One could see directly stimulating immune response in the lungs and suppressing a generalised immune response might work. This is why continued studies are important, if everyone just starts giving nebulised interferon then we may never know.

For all the criticisms of the NHS the UK does seem to have done well in research on treatment for Covid.
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Old 20th July 2020, 12:39 AM   #564
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People may find this article on faecal transmission of covid-19 interesting. Particularly recommendations on routine stool testing to establish that people are no longer infectious.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-c...vidence-brief/
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Old 20th July 2020, 12:50 AM   #565
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Nice article suggesting the virus may have become slightly more virulent, certainly one mutant (that may be Italian in origin) is now dominant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53325771
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:12 AM   #566
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
First and foremost, thank you for sharing and I hope that you recover fully and very soon.

Second... just to verify because I had unusual and atypical chest pain for an extended period of time earlier this year (apparently at the same time as an EKG anomaly that seems to have disappeared since? It's unknown whether it's COVID related or not - there have been a couple times I've had very unusual issues this year, though), can persistent heart burn be ruled out there for you? As it was, I had never experienced anything like that before and it took a rather excessive period of time before I was directed in a more helpful direction. It almost completely cleared up after a few days of Prilosec, but it feels like it could come back if I don't continue to take the mitigating measures that were minimizing the discomfort, if that makes sense.
Thanks! My chest pain wasn't heart related. I had an EKG at the hospital and while it was slightly irregular, it was consistent with an earlier one they had when I had broken my rib. My HR became irregular at some point, and I had palpitations, but this seems more related to nerve inflammation, this is a very common symptom, some people's HR remain elevated after weeks, and quite a few are now taking heart medication.

I haven't suffered from excessive heart burn or any GI symptoms, although a couple of times some medicines have irritated my stomach (I'm taking aspirin to thin my blood as stroke and clots are a real concern).

Many people in the recovery groups are complaining about excessive acidity and heartburrn, particularly those with nausea, diarrhoea and loss of appetite. The UCL symptom group has now placed covid symptoms in 6 main groups. I'm in group 4.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-clusters
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:13 AM   #567
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post






You do know you aren't the only one in the thread, right?
You do know you're quoting and replying specifically to me, right?

Gaslight someone else.
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:23 AM   #568
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing these experiences.

I don't know if you were lurking when I talked about this before, so pardon me if it's repetitious. I had Covid symptoms in June, but I got tested two days after first noticing a fever, and the test was negative. Except for a cough and low-grade fever, all the other symptoms started after I got the negative test. (The symptoms I didn't have were loss of taste or smell, diarrhea, skin rash, or headache.) The symptoms I did have sound a lot like your current after-effect symptoms. But I did recover two weeks later.

I might still have after-after effects, as it were. If I do moderately strenuous work for an hour or so (e.g. mowing the lawn with my manual mower), the weird "shortness of breath without actually feeling short of breath" and the muscle aches through my torso return, similar to how I felt while resting while I was ill. I attributed this to being out of shape following a month of minimal activity, but it matches other people's experience so well (though generally much milder) that it makes me wonder.

No conclusions can be drawn from this. It's just interesting to compare.

I'm sorry you and so many other people have been hit so hard by this. Those symptoms, I can attest, really suck. I'm glad you have the online support group and I hope medical science can get a handle on this.
Thanks for sharing. The problem with the testing is that it has to take place at the right time, too early and you will not test positive, and too late it's possible that the virus has been vanquished. Infection seems to last between 1-3 weeks after symptoms. I know of a person who kept testing positive for almost 2 months.

So there's a chance that your body had already beaten the virus when you tested. I was tested over 3 months after my symptoms started, we took the test as part of the UK's UCL symptom study.

I'm hoping to take the antibody test as soon as I can, but my doctors assume I was sick with Covid, my x-ray was inconclusive for covid as I was not dying or with full pneumonia, but there was some crap in my lungs for sure.

My eyesight is crap, and I notice that my writing is completely off, I make more typos than I used to.
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:31 AM   #569
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Like I said - provide evidence Covid should keep schools shut. That's where I'm leaving it.
Death rates are the wrong way of thinking about this disease.

There's a 10% risk of this disease damaging organs forever, I'll keep you posted about me personally, but I can assure you that many people in the support groups have had their lives completely disrupted by this, and we suspect that we're just the tip of the iceberg. Heart, liver, kidneys, lungs, brain damage...

If children are a vector for infection, even if they won't be affected, then the 10% long term risk to the wider population is unacceptable. We're talking polio-level effects here.

Anecdotal evidence alert. One of my colleagues at work also has long-term covid, and she caught it from her daughter, who caught it in school. She's doing better than me, but her husband has lost 8 kg and has horrible GI symptoms and kidney problems. If the schools had closed earlier, chances are they would have been fine.
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:36 AM   #570
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Anecdotal only. We have seen patients who did not require admission to hospital left with long term lung damage. That is longer than we would expect for other forms of pneumonia, but only a few months given the infection is new. Interestingly the CXR on one of the patients was normal, but when we exercised the patient gas exchange was poor explaining the persistent breathlessness. This probably represents a pulmonary vascular problem due to blood clots in the lungs. This may improve given more time.

So whilst bad covid may be more likely to have long term affects, milder covid not requiring hospital admission may also have long term effects in a proportion.
Thanks for this information. I've been terrified by clots in the lungs. We bought and oxymeter at the start of the illness, and my SATs hover around 96, and have gone down to 93 on occasion. Strangely, they seem lower after I try to exercise, 94 after a walk on Saturday. My wife also got ill, but her SATs are always around 98-99.
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:45 AM   #571
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
If they were like that yesterday, what do you make of the stats showing like this?
0 cases, 0 deaths?

I make of that that WHO had or has yet to update the source of their information in the aftermath of the Trump Administration messing with the information flow.
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:58 AM   #572
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
For all the criticisms of the NHS the UK does seem to have done well in research on treatment for Covid.
Yeah, I was thinking that myself. Also, I think criticism of the NHS has been more political than groundswell.

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
People may find this article on faecal transmission of covid-19 interesting. Particularly recommendations on routine stool testing to establish that people are no longer infectious.
Wow.

It's months ago I was banging the drum of foecal-oral transmission and it was not at all popular, so seeing that article is very enlightening!

Originally Posted by anduin View Post
Death rates are the wrong way of thinking about this disease.

There's a 10% risk of this disease damaging organs forever, I'll keep you posted about me personally, but I can assure you that many people in the support groups have had their lives completely disrupted by this, and we suspect that we're just the tip of the iceberg. Heart, liver, kidneys, lungs, brain damage...
I've acknowledged the non-fatal harm from Covid on many occasions, but I don't believe the serious harm rate is anywhere near 10%. 10% of severe cases might be right, but since 80-90% of Covid cases are asymptomatic or so mild the person doesn't even seek treatment, I think 10% overall is a wild over-estimate.

We also don't know that effects will be long term, let alone lifelong.
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:12 AM   #573
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long-term lung damage

This came out last month, but I am not sure whether or not it was discussed here. "In the study published on Tuesday, 12 monkeys were infected with the new coronavirus, and half of them were given early treatment with remdesivir.

Macaques that received remdesivir did not show signs of respiratory disease and had reduced damage to the lungs." link. I look forward to more information on whether or not remdesivir has an effect on long-term lung damage.
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:14 AM   #574
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, I was thinking that myself. Also, I think criticism of the NHS has been more political than groundswell.



Wow.

It's months ago I was banging the drum of foecal-oral transmission and it was not at all popular, so seeing that article is very enlightening!


...snip...
Well you wouldn't be would you! Splattered everywhere!
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:49 AM   #575
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I think the problem is what do we mean by safe. The risk to children from covid-19 is small but not zero. It is certainly below the risks we accept for other issues. So for the children it is probably safe.
Oh well, nothing to worry about then. Lets get all the kids back to school, and don't worry about taking any precautions because it's probably safe.

I predict it won't just be the kids that get taught a lesson, and not by any human teacher.
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Old 20th July 2020, 11:33 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
Macaques that received remdesivir did not show signs of respiratory disease and had reduced damage to the lungs."
That's why there have been no macaques in ICU!

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Well you wouldn't be would you! Splattered everywhere!
Inside that comment is kernel of truth.

Rest homes spread orally-transmitted diseases very easily, and thousands of oldies die annually from norovirus as a result.

It'd be somewhat ironic if after the angst over face masks and protecting the elderly, the disease could have been avoided by keeping bathrooms sterile.
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Old 20th July 2020, 11:41 AM   #577
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Meanwhile, I see the Poms are determined to lead the way in stopping Covid by scientific means, after having failed abjectly at dealing with it politically.

Hard on the heels of a potential winning treatment, Oxford University's vaccine is shows strong promise, producing both antibodies and t-cells in recipients.

Still needs more work, but a very good start.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839
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Of note - Cuba appears to have eliminated the virus from the community as well.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24K0JL
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Interesting piece here on viral interference. https://www.theguardian.com/society/...meets-covid-19

Covid may not be affected by viral interference, with the virus targeting different cells, and you can definitely have both Covid and 'flu simultaneously.

Get your damned 'flu shot!
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Old 20th July 2020, 12:58 PM   #578
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Meanwhile, I see the Poms are determined to lead the way in stopping Covid by scientific means, after having failed abjectly at dealing with it politically.

Hard on the heels of a potential winning treatment, Oxford University's vaccine is shows strong promise, producing both antibodies and t-cells in recipients.

Still needs more work, but a very good start.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839
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Of note - Cuba appears to have eliminated the virus from the community as well.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24K0JL
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Interesting piece here on viral interference. https://www.theguardian.com/society/...meets-covid-19

Covid may not be affected by viral interference, with the virus targeting different cells, and you can definitely have both Covid and 'flu simultaneously.

Get your damned 'flu shot!
I have a cousin in the trial, if I hear anything interesting I will pass on.
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:09 PM   #579
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have a cousin in the trial, if I hear anything interesting I will pass on.
You're sure that's not one of those Father Ted moments and you meant: "I have a cousin on trial..."?

Meanwhile, in other Kiwi Covid news, Steven Adams, of all people, gives a pure sense of perspective on Covid:

Quote:
"Let's be clear, mate," Adams told reporters on the call. "This is not Syria, mate. It's not that hard. It's not that difficult. We're living in a bloody resort.

“Everyone's gonna complain, everyone has their own preferences, but it's not anything too serious. It's a bit of dry food here and there, and you get bored every now and then. But it's all good, man.
While he's talking about the NBA camp, it's true for all western nations.
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:28 PM   #580
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
You do know you're quoting and replying specifically to me, right?

Gaslight someone else.
That doesn't make it a private conversation.
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Old 20th July 2020, 04:05 PM   #581
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theyre offering us positions in a trial here in hawaii. Not sure if I should
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Old 20th July 2020, 08:28 PM   #582
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Far out, man. Some researchers published a, like, peer-reviewed article on the, like, possibility that cannabidiol (aka CBD) does, like, some groovy stuff against cytokine storms.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilyea.../#75facd5c4d9d
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Old 20th July 2020, 11:40 PM   #583
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The Australian Covid 19 app that is heavily promoted by PM Morrison has been shown to be a MASSIVE waste of money. It has not found one case that was not found by other sources.
More details here https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...aead1198#close
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Old 21st July 2020, 12:21 AM   #584
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
In light of recent, um, clarifications, let me see if I can summarize ...


There are a lot of school kids in the US; 50 million (give or take).

If all of them were to contract covid-19, <~300 would die from it.

Germany, Denmark, and Australia have (re-)opened their schools.

No spike in covid-19 cases in those countries, despite schools being open.

So the harm in (re-)opening US schools would be minimal.

That about right, TA?
This is simply not true.

Australia has had many outbreaks in schools, and a school is part of the serious problems occurring in Victoria right now.

Whenever a cluster of cases appears in a school, the school is immediately closed and 'deep cleaned'.

But there is no doubt, at all, that schools have had a role in spreading the disease.
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Old 21st July 2020, 01:00 AM   #585
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
This is simply not true.

Australia has had many outbreaks in schools, and a school is part of the serious problems occurring in Victoria right now.

Whenever a cluster of cases appears in a school, the school is immediately closed and 'deep cleaned'.

But there is no doubt, at all, that schools have had a role in spreading the disease.
This is untrue. There is doubt. That a school may reflect a community outbreak is not surprising, it is different to assert that the school was the sole or a significant contributor to community spread. In comparison with flu there have been no school centred outbreaks. The involvement of a school in a community outbreak does not mean it was causative.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....25.20140178v2

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Old 21st July 2020, 02:35 AM   #586
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Far out, man. Some researchers published a, like, peer-reviewed article on the, like, possibility that cannabidiol (aka CBD) does, like, some groovy stuff against cytokine storms.]
Great news! I'll be fine, then.
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Old 21st July 2020, 11:10 AM   #587
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Bay County, FL, USA has a positivity rate of 24%. Miami-Dade County, FL, USA has a positivity rate of 19%. They definitely need to cut back on testing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime...?ocid=msedgntp
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Old 21st July 2020, 11:40 AM   #588
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Jeez. Scotland's positivity rate has been below 1% every single day since 16th June, sometimes as low as 0.1%. Today it was 0.8% and people are fretting.

The reason people are fretting is that a cluster came to light on Sunday morning, ironically in a commercial call centre, on a floor where employees had been contracted to do telephone contact tracing for England. Eight cases have been reported in the cluster but since there were 14 cases recorded for the region today I suspect it's more than that. The Scottish contact tracers (who work locally, boots on the ground) are now hunting down the remote-working English contact tracers. (Who are actually Scottish, obviously.) Questions Are Being Asked.

I don't entirely understand the cutoff for "if your positivity rate is under this number you're catching most of your cases". Does anyone know how they work it out? I've heard that anything below 3% is satisfactory, and I've also heard 5%. And yet at the time our 7-day average was running at 0.3% we were still only finding about 10% of the number of cases our modellers said were out there.

Leaving aside the cluster, and another group of cases that were apparently asymptomatic people found when screening a care home, we have definitely had an uptick in new cases over the past ten days or so. The cases have been in single figures scattered around most regions in the country and the story is, well, we're doing a lot of testing so we're finding more cases. If they're finding the cases the modellers were saying were out there anyway that's fine and dandy. But it doesn't entirely compute, because a lot of the extra testing they seem to be doing is retests of people who already had a test.

It's true that numbers are still very low, but we've moved from about 1.2 cases per day per million people to something like 2.8 cases per day per million people and yet we're still opening things up. If they keep managing to control clusters (this is the second one that has flared up, the first was related to virus running out of control in Carlisle, in England, brought back by hospital staff living in Scotland) and the pop-up rate doesn't get any higher I suppose we're OK but I wish we weren't in quite such a hurry.

But mainly, can anyone explain how this 3% (or 5%) positivity rate target came to be devised, and what does it really mean if you're still missing 90% of new cases when your positivity rate is only 0.3%?
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Old 21st July 2020, 11:49 AM   #589
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The reason people are fretting is that a cluster came to light on Sunday morning, ironically in a commercial call centre, on a floor where employees had been contracted to do telephone contact tracing for England.
Proof!!

They're transmitting it through 5G. You can't trust those Poms for a split second.
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Old 21st July 2020, 11:54 AM   #590
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Some intriguing - and possibly highly suspect - news out of India today.

Government health authorities have conducted antibody testing on 21,000 Delhi residents and found that 23% of them had Covid antibodies.

Delhi is showing an official 123,000 cases, while 23% of the population is over 4.4 million. If true, 97% of cases are being missed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53485039
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Old 21st July 2020, 12:48 PM   #591
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It won't be true.

We have only 4.3% seropositivity in the population. We have recorded 18,474 virus-positive people. However that is going to be a really big underestimate as during the height of the epidemic and for some time afterwards they were only testing people sick enough to be hospitalised. That's still apparently missing only 92%, not 97%.

It depends entirely on what proportion of infected people actually get tested and I think that's low in an awful lot of countries of which India is likely to be one. Also, how good is the antibody test they're using? Because that's so much higher a proportion than other similar studies it smells of cross-reactivity to me.
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Old 21st July 2020, 01:20 PM   #592
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Jeez. Scotland's positivity rate has been below 1% every single day since 16th June, sometimes as low as 0.1%. Today it was 0.8% and people are fretting.

The reason people are fretting is that a cluster came to light on Sunday morning, ironically in a commercial call centre, on a floor where employees had been contracted to do telephone contact tracing for England. Eight cases have been reported in the cluster but since there were 14 cases recorded for the region today I suspect it's more than that. The Scottish contact tracers (who work locally, boots on the ground) are now hunting down the remote-working English contact tracers. (Who are actually Scottish, obviously.) Questions Are Being Asked.

I don't entirely understand the cutoff for "if your positivity rate is under this number you're catching most of your cases". Does anyone know how they work it out? I've heard that anything below 3% is satisfactory, and I've also heard 5%. And yet at the time our 7-day average was running at 0.3% we were still only finding about 10% of the number of cases our modellers said were out there.

Leaving aside the cluster, and another group of cases that were apparently asymptomatic people found when screening a care home, we have definitely had an uptick in new cases over the past ten days or so. The cases have been in single figures scattered around most regions in the country and the story is, well, we're doing a lot of testing so we're finding more cases. If they're finding the cases the modellers were saying were out there anyway that's fine and dandy. But it doesn't entirely compute, because a lot of the extra testing they seem to be doing is retests of people who already had a test.

It's true that numbers are still very low, but we've moved from about 1.2 cases per day per million people to something like 2.8 cases per day per million people and yet we're still opening things up. If they keep managing to control clusters (this is the second one that has flared up, the first was related to virus running out of control in Carlisle, in England, brought back by hospital staff living in Scotland) and the pop-up rate doesn't get any higher I suppose we're OK but I wish we weren't in quite such a hurry.

But mainly, can anyone explain how this 3% (or 5%) positivity rate target came to be devised, and what does it really mean if you're still missing 90% of new cases when your positivity rate is only 0.3%?
To put Rolfe's hyperbole in perspective the 'out of control' rate in Carlisle is 1.9 / million so lower than Scotland as a whole.
https://www.cumbria.gov.uk/elibrary/...mp=44033212055

ETA Whoops! misread the zeros! 19 / 100,000 so 190 / million. That is what a night shift does!

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Old 21st July 2020, 01:26 PM   #593
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It won't be true.

We have only 4.3% seropositivity in the population. We have recorded 18,474 virus-positive people. However that is going to be a really big underestimate as during the height of the epidemic and for some time afterwards they were only testing people sick enough to be hospitalised. That's still apparently missing only 92%, not 97%.

It depends entirely on what proportion of infected people actually get tested and I think that's low in an awful lot of countries of which India is likely to be one. Also, how good is the antibody test they're using? Because that's so much higher a proportion than other similar studies it smells of cross-reactivity to me.
You may be correct. There was an interesting interview I heard this morning discussing the paradox of Vietnam with no Covid-19 deaths. The suggestion was that the population may have been exposed to a SARS like virus. So it is certainly possible some of the paradoxically good outcomes in Asia may relate to prior exposure to related viruses. If true it suggests a successful vaccine should be possible.
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Old 21st July 2020, 01:57 PM   #594
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It won't be true.
That's my pick - I've loudly distrusted India on everything they've said or done on Covid so far.

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
You may be correct. There was an interesting interview I heard this morning discussing the paradox of Vietnam with no Covid-19 deaths. The suggestion was that the population may have been exposed to a SARS like virus.
Or SARS itself?

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ce-follow-suit

Do we know how widespread serological testing was done post SARS 1.0?
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Old 21st July 2020, 02:59 PM   #595
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
You may be correct. There was an interesting interview I heard this morning discussing the paradox of Vietnam with no Covid-19 deaths. The suggestion was that the population may have been exposed to a SARS like virus. So it is certainly possible some of the paradoxically good outcomes in Asia may relate to prior exposure to related viruses. If true it suggests a successful vaccine should be possible.
Interesting. Is there any information on the types of common cold coronaviruses running around in Vietnam in comparison to other countries?
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Old 21st July 2020, 03:21 PM   #596
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
To put Rolfe's hyperbole in perspective the 'out of control' rate in Carlisle is 1.9 / million so lower than Scotland as a whole.
https://www.cumbria.gov.uk/elibrary/...mp=44033212055

ETA Whoops! misread the zeros! 19 / 100,000 so 190 / million. That is what a night shift does!

You're awfully defensive about Carlisle. Whatever happened or didn't happen in March-April-May, they just closed three pubs in Carlisle because of connections with virus-positive customers. This is on top of whatever was happening in the hospital a couple of weeks ago and a new infection rate that's a complete stand-out when compared to Northumberland or pretty much any county in that general vicinity.

Cumbria needs sorting out and the sooner the better.
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Old 21st July 2020, 07:51 PM   #597
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Australia has recorded 501 confirmed new cases today, of which 484 are in Victoria.

source
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Old 21st July 2020, 08:08 PM   #598
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...mn/5472100002/ (USA Today)


"Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same."


But is it still early days in the pandemic?
In Victoria, Australia, an outbreak is becoming endemic spreading. Is widespread infection (often confused with "herd immunity") inevitible?

New Zealand had a new case yesterday, I see. That could be contained, but one case also led Victoria into this mess.
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Old 21st July 2020, 08:09 PM   #599
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
You may be correct. There was an interesting interview I heard this morning discussing the paradox of Vietnam with no Covid-19 deaths. The suggestion was that the population may have been exposed to a SARS like virus. So it is certainly possible some of the paradoxically good outcomes in Asia may relate to prior exposure to related viruses. If true it suggests a successful vaccine should be possible.

Interesting! Thanks.
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Old 21st July 2020, 08:13 PM   #600
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Some intriguing - and possibly highly suspect - news out of India today.

Government health authorities have conducted antibody testing on 21,000 Delhi residents and found that 23% of them had Covid antibodies.

Delhi is showing an official 123,000 cases, while 23% of the population is over 4.4 million. If true, 97% of cases are being missed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53485039

While some of the symptoms are non-specific, especially in mild cases, I doubt it's possible that so many cases have literally been missed.

But we must also remember, testing kits' availability was rudimentary early on.
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