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Old 21st July 2020, 08:26 PM   #601
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Quote:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...CNNHfZSQHuOgo8 Coronavirus infections could be up to 13 times higher across US than initially reported, CDC finds

Antibody test results from 10 cities suggest Americans were spreading the virus without realising they were infected..
"Antibody test results from 10 cities suggest Americans were spreading the virus without realising they were infected.." Or maybe without the Pandemic Porn: "Up to 93% of people who had Covid didn't even need treatment"?
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Old 21st July 2020, 09:59 PM   #602
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
"Antibody test results from 10 cities suggest Americans were spreading the virus without realising they were infected.." Or maybe without the Pandemic Porn: "Up to 93% of people who had Covid didn't even need treatment"?

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Old 21st July 2020, 10:01 PM   #603
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"For the COVID-19 vaccine, we would need live tracking of every vial with all the storage and handling environment parameters with doubtless integrity and open accessibility by all stakeholders which can only be done with a decentralised open ledger."


Blockchain and distributed ledger technology will be essential for an equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution. - World Economic Forum.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...d-make-history
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Old 22nd July 2020, 12:29 AM   #604
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Australia has recorded 501 confirmed new cases today, of which 484 are in Victoria.

source
That is terrible news. In the last 9 days Victoria has averaged 277 cases per day. The numbers are still going up, though the increase is slowing down. They have been locked down for two weeks so the numbers should start to go down now. Otherwise something is wrong with their lockdown.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 12:44 AM   #605
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Quote:
Pakistanis with coronavirus are risking their lives and navigating a shady black market to get blood plasma transfusions, despite scant medical proof about the remedy’s effectiveness.

Convalescent plasma treatment, where the antibody-rich part of the blood from a recovered patient is transfused to a coronavirus sufferer, is growing in popularity across the country amid widely circulating claims of success on social media.

Like some other nations, Pakistan is conducting medical trials on the treatment, which has shown promising signs but is far from proven.

But with lengthy wait times and uncertain access, people are turning to the black market and private clinics, where there are no guarantees about the safety or origin of the blood product.

“It’s all born out of desperation because everyone wants to believe there is an answer to this (coronavirus) question,” Fareeha Irfan, a public health specialist said.

“It is easy to exploit the people who are not very well versed in what’s going on in the scientific world. It is very easy to coerce them.”

Pakistan has declared about 260,000 cases of coronavirus and some 5,500 deaths. With low testing rates, the true figure is thought to be considerably higher.

The Pakistan Society of Haematology said plasma hype had led the public - and even some health professionals - to believe the therapy was standard treatment for the virus.

“Use of convalescent plasma can sometimes lead to life-threatening transfusion reactions and transmissions of infections,” the society said.

While plasma therapy is so far unproven in fighting coronavirus, small studies have found it successful against other infectious diseases including Ebola and SARS.
source
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Old 22nd July 2020, 01:12 AM   #606
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
That is terrible news. In the last 9 days Victoria has averaged 277 cases per day. The numbers are still going up, though the increase is slowing down. They have been locked down for two weeks so the numbers should start to go down now. Otherwise something is wrong with their lockdown.
On gov.au it says most cases are between the ages of 20-35.

Not sure if that correlates either to cause or to demographics.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 01:24 AM   #607
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
On gov.au it says most cases are between the ages of 20-35.

Not sure if that correlates either to cause or to demographics.
I agree that the biggest group are people aged 20-29 followed by 30-39. But unless you are 60+ and male or 70+ and female you are unlikely to die. Exception - poor health will increase your odds of dying.

Even worse, even if you are young and healthy it can take MONTHS to recover. So everyone should take precautions against getting it. Do not travel outside your own city. Keep social activities to a minimum.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 02:46 AM   #608
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
That is terrible news. In the last 9 days Victoria has averaged 277 cases per day. The numbers are still going up, though the increase is slowing down. They have been locked down for two weeks so the numbers should start to go down now. Otherwise something is wrong with their lockdown.
IIRC, after two weeks of lockdown, people who I conversed with were panicking about how Italy was still reporting ever higher numbers.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 04:31 AM   #609
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You're awfully defensive about Carlisle. Whatever happened or didn't happen in March-April-May, they just closed three pubs in Carlisle because of connections with virus-positive customers. This is on top of whatever was happening in the hospital a couple of weeks ago and a new infection rate that's a complete stand-out when compared to Northumberland or pretty much any county in that general vicinity.

Cumbria needs sorting out and the sooner the better.

Carlisle. A fourth pub has been implicated and has closed.

Quote:
With the city now in the top 20 nationally for new cases in the week ending 17 July, just before the outbreak was found, local tracers now now trying to find whether any more contacts to the six people originally identified, have also been infected.

The health authorities are clearly trying hard to contain this, but don't quote statistics from four months ago to claim there's no problem there now, because there clearly is.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 01:16 PM   #610
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
New Zealand had a new case yesterday, I see. That could be contained, but one case also led Victoria into this mess.
It's 80-something days since we had a case that wasn't a returnee in quarantine. We've been lucky after a couple of early mistakes, but the combination of police & defence managing the quarantine seems to be working well now.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
While some of the symptoms are non-specific, especially in mild cases, I doubt it's possible that so many cases have literally been missed.
On 15 March India was showing 99 cases, while Iran had 14,000 and Italy 34,000. I stick by my early statement that India's figures have been baloney from the start. They weren't testing and I'd be amazed if their counts of both cases and deaths aren't under by a massive factor and 90+% wouldn't be out of the question.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
"Antibody test results from 10 cities suggest Americans were spreading the virus without realising they were infected.." Or maybe without the Pandemic Porn: "Up to 93% of people who had Covid didn't even need treatment"?
I'll buy that. Antibody tests seem to all be pointing that way.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
...Pakistan...
Considering 40% of their airline pilots didn't have licences to fly, I'm not at all surprised by that news.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 02:01 PM   #611
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Hi all. Dropping into this thread. This may have been covered recently, so I apologize if this is well worn territory, but I want to ask about face shields.

Here's an excerpt from a CNN article today:

Quote:
Q: Should people wear face shields instead of (or in addition to) face masks?

A:The CDC does not recommend using plastic face shields for everyday activities or as a substitute for face masks.
...
Face shields worn in addition to masks can provide an added layer of protection and can also help people stop touching their faces. Workers who are around people for long periods of time, such as grocery store workers or hospital personnel, may want to wear face shields in addition to masks, to increase their protection.
So here is what I don't get. The second paragraph above clearly implies that face shields provide extra protection. Extra protection is good, right? We're all in on extra protection, aren't we? And if it's good enough for hospital workers, why wouldn't it be good enough for me?

When I go into stores these days, I wear a mask and a face shield. I think that means that both I and the people around me are better protected than if I wore just a mask. So far, I've never seen anyone else with a shield.

What's the deal with not recommending them? I get that maybe they don't provide a lot of benefit. I can say with certainty that they are uncomfortable and inconvenient, so I can understand why people wouldn't want to wear them, and might feel that the extra protection isn't worth the extra discomfort or inconvenience, but the guidance from CDC, expressed in that article and many others, seem to be saying that it's a bad idea to wear a face shield. Does anyone understand this?

ETA: And looking at the way I edited the original quote, the lack of recommendation doesn't seem as strong as it did in the original article. In the article, it really came across as "you shouldn't wear a face shield". I could understand a statement if it said something along the lines of, "You don't need a face shield, and above all do not substitute a shield for a mask, but a mask plus shield is better than a mask alone."

Last edited by Meadmaker; 22nd July 2020 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 02:24 PM   #612
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
On gov.au it says most cases are between the ages of 20-35.

Not sure if that correlates either to cause or to demographics.
It's amazing how this fire spreads before people realize it is spreading.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 03:32 PM   #613
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
So here is what I don't get. The second paragraph above clearly implies that face shields provide extra protection. Extra protection is good, right? We're all in on extra protection, aren't we? And if it's good enough for hospital workers, why wouldn't it be good enough for me?
Hospital workers get very close to their patients and the patients are sick with Covid, so extra protection is sensible.

For everyday use, a face shield is a bit like belt and braces - not really necessary.

______________________________________


Meanwhile today has a new record number of cases worldwide, and the most deaths since 6 May.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 03:52 PM   #614
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
On 15 March India was showing 99 cases, while Iran had 14,000 and Italy 34,000. I stick by my early statement that India's figures have been baloney from the start. They weren't testing and I'd be amazed if their counts of both cases and deaths aren't under by a massive factor and 90+% wouldn't be out of the question.
Yep.

Trump was being ridiculed for saying, "If you don't test, you don't get cases".

In his bumbling way, he was saying the same thing.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 05:42 PM   #615
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Meanwhile today has a new record number of cases worldwide, and the most deaths since 6 May.
In fact, make that the highest number of deaths since 21 April.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 06:01 PM   #616
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hospital workers get very close to their patients and the patients are sick with Covid, so extra protection is sensible.

For everyday use, a face shield is a bit like belt and braces - not really necessary.

______________________________________


Meanwhile today has a new record number of cases worldwide, and the most deaths since 6 May.
But, if we've been paying attention we know that cloth face masks, which is what is typically available in America, provide very little protection to the wearer. They provide some, but not a lot. Their primary purpose is to protect the rest of the people.

Meanwhile, face shields protect you even if you get up close and personal with someone, which means they ought to protect you if you get close to someone very briefly, as often happens even today in stores.

It seems to me that-
mask = good protection for everyone else. A little for you.
Face shield alone = Not a lot of protection for everyone else. Some protection for you.
mask+faceshield = Some protection for you and for everyone else. (Maybe more than "some". I don't know.)

It doesn't seem redundant with the mask. It seems to be performing a different function.

I don't know how well it's performing it, but I'm fairly confident it's doing it enough to measure, otherwise the CDC wouldn't be saying that grocery workers might want to wear them. There's nothing a grocery worker will encounter that a grocery shopper will not. He'll just encounter them more times each day, because he's there longer.

What am I missing here?
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Old 22nd July 2020, 06:24 PM   #617
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
But, if we've been paying attention we know that cloth face masks, which is what is typically available in America, provide very little protection to the wearer. They provide some, but not a lot. Their primary purpose is to protect the rest of the people.
Which, if everyone wears them, stops transmission.

Also,depends what cloth you use to make a mask.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I don't know how well it's performing it, but I'm fairly confident it's doing it enough to measure, otherwise the CDC wouldn't be saying that grocery workers might want to wear them. There's nothing a grocery worker will encounter that a grocery shopper will not. He'll just encounter them more times each day, because he's there longer.

What am I missing here?
A grocery worker will be face to face with (min. 1 customer every 5 minutes for 8 hours) at least 100 people. And during that time, it's pretty well guaranteed the customers will be talking to him while facing him.

I don't know how you shop for groceries, but I never talk to anyone other than the counter staff, which is the only person I'm ever face to face with.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 06:37 PM   #618
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Which, if everyone wears them, stops transmission.

Also,depends what cloth you use to make a mask.



A grocery worker will be face to face with (min. 1 customer every 5 minutes for 8 hours) at least 100 people. And during that time, it's pretty well guaranteed the customers will be talking to him while facing him.

I don't know how you shop for groceries, but I never talk to anyone other than the counter staff, which is the only person I'm ever face to face with.
At grocery stores, I don't interact with the staff a lot. Just occasionally. At hardware stores, I interact with staff a lot.


But, if the staff is interacting with people, then one of the people they are interacting with is me. I can't see how they would need protection but I wouldn't. Yes, I know they encounter more people, but there's a certain probability of infection with every interaction. I have fewer interactions, but I still want that probability to be as low as possible.

If I wanted to be really, really, safe, I could wear a hazmat suit. Those aren't recommended either, but you would be safer if you wore one. It's just that cost and comfort considerations would lead people to say it wasn't worth it. They'll take their chances with masks. Face shields are very low cost, and moderately uncomfortable, but for those of us who are of a certain age and have comorbidities, it still seems worth it.

From googling and reading the articles, I have definitely gotten the impression that the reason the CDC doesn't recommend face shields is they are afraid people will wear them instead of masks. It's sort of like how in the beginning they actually told people not to wear masks because they wanted to save the masks for health care workers. That was terrible advice, and has proved really harmful, because it's a factor in now getting people to wear masks. Everything I'm reading suggests that a face shield is better protection for the wearer than a mask.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 06:46 PM   #619
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Not recommending wearing a face shield is not the same thing as recommending not wearing a face shield.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 07:06 PM   #620
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Ok, I thought it might be a good time for a quick summary, being six months since the thread started.

After three months, 2,681,000 cases of Covid had been confirmed. To line up deaths a bit better, I'm using the death total of 7 May, two weeks after the last possible infection date. That total was 272,000 deaths. Mortality rate of just over 10%
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Since then, we have seen 12,600,000 more cases and there have been another 358,000 deaths. Mortality rate 2.8%.

Given that an enormous number of cases haven't been counted, it seems highly likely that rate is 10 times too high and the actual IFR is somewhere around 0.3%.
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The disease hasn't got less virulent, but we've got a lot better at treating it, hence the large reduction in deaths from early on. We also now have at least one drug with a high likelihood of reducing the death rate. If we presume a high for IFR of 0.6%, and that can be reduced by a further 75%, we're looking at a worst-case of IFR at 0.08.
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An unknown, but significant percentage of infected people have ongoing symptoms, of an unknown duration and severity. That rate is hard to figure, but there's some information available.

10% of 4 million people tracking symptoms via an App are reporting ongoing illness. https://www.sciencealert.com/why-are...-from-covid-19

We can't quantify who's responding to the App, but my experience of human behaviour says it's more likely people with few or no symptoms will sign up to the App and report, so if we look at 5% of confirmed cases, I think we'd be somewhere near right. With 90% of cases having not been tested, we get a rate of severe, ongoing illness of 0.5%, which seems to fit with anecdotal reports.

If left unchecked, that could mean as many as 50 million people around the world are debilitated by the disease, possibly for many years.
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Vaccines

The virus has shown an inherent stability, with no change to the important genetic markers, so there's no reason a vaccine won't work, and with so many promising results, I expect vaccines to start to be available from January 2021, or even maybe before christmas. The only issue will be delivering them, but with several being produced in mass quantities in readiness, I think they should be available for high-risk groups pretty quickly.
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Responses to the pandemic

Most countries have done very well at keeping the spread in check, which has undoubtedly saved tens or hundreds of thousands of lives. Places like Germany and Norway never got hospitals anywhere near breaking point, so patients didn't need to be triaged for death, which helps a lot.

I expect those countries will continue to hammer and dance their way until vaccines are here.

Summary - while the pandemic and deaths are far from over, I think we just about have the little bastard virus on the run.

Until the next one...
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Old 22nd July 2020, 08:31 PM   #621
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Ok, I thought it might be a good time for a quick summary, being six months since the thread started.

After three months, 2,681,000 cases of Covid had been confirmed. To line up deaths a bit better, I'm using the death total of 7 May, two weeks after the last possible infection date. That total was 272,000 deaths. Mortality rate of just over 10%
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Since then, we have seen 12,600,000 more cases and there have been another 358,000 deaths. Mortality rate 2.8%.

...
Also, once we knew it existed, we started taking precautions where the most vulnerable are- care homes. Since most fatalities are in the aged group, that alone did a LOT for lowering the numbers.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 09:25 PM   #622
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
From googling and reading the articles, I have definitely gotten the impression that the reason the CDC doesn't recommend face shields is they are afraid people will wear them instead of masks. It's sort of like how in the beginning they actually told people not to wear masks because they wanted to save the masks for health care workers. That was terrible advice, and has proved really harmful, because it's a factor in now getting people to wear masks. Everything I'm reading suggests that a face shield is better protection for the wearer than a mask.
They can't recommend something that will cause a global panic on top of this one.

There aren't large stores of face shields at the moment for everyone to wear.

Just like there weren't large stocks of face masks a few months ago.

Nor testing kits before that.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 09:28 PM   #623
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Thanks for the summary TA.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 09:29 PM   #624
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Check this out from the WEF about the Oxford University vaccine.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=...72247209722726

Likely ready for distribution in a few months.

70% were immune after one dose, 100% after the second dose.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 09:52 PM   #625
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Check this out from the WEF about the Oxford University vaccine.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=...72247209722726

Likely ready for distribution in a few months.

70% were immune after one dose, 100% after the second dose.
Minor correction: they showed antibodies we assume makes them immune.

I'm confident the antibodies are enough, but we won't know until vaccinated people are exposed.

Either way, it will be great if we can vaccinate ourselves into normal again.
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Old 22nd July 2020, 11:34 PM   #626
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face shields - I suggest it is a matter of cost benefit. The cost of a face shield is far higher than a mask. Plus they will need cleaning. So unless a person is interacting with lots of people who have a good chance of having the virus then it is not worth it.

What has happened where I live is that there are screens between the customers and the staff at the counters.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 12:15 AM   #627
Orphia Nay
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Minor correction: they showed antibodies we assume makes them immune.

I'm confident the antibodies are enough, but we won't know until vaccinated people are exposed.

Either way, it will be great if we can vaccinate ourselves into normal again.
Is that what they also meant by it inducing an immune response?
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Old 23rd July 2020, 12:46 AM   #628
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This is untrue. There is doubt. That a school may reflect a community outbreak is not surprising, it is different to assert that the school was the sole or a significant contributor to community spread. In comparison with flu there have been no school centred outbreaks. The involvement of a school in a community outbreak does not mean it was causative.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....25.20140178v2
You're quoting a French study when I'm referring to Australia, I don't know why I bother, but here you go:

Quote:
Victoria's Chief Health Officer will review the planned reopening of schools within Melbourne's locked-down suburbs as new evidence of recent student-to-student transmission of COVID-19 emerges.
Quote:
The Chief Health Officer said there was evidence of student-to-student and especially teacher-to-teacher transmission.
July 2, 2020, Australia Age

Return to class to be reviewed 'day-by-day' as school spread widens

Have a nice day.

PS. Don't bother quibbling about my use of 'no doubt' I was responding to a post that said we know that school transmission is not happening in Australia.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 05:11 AM   #629
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Check this out from the WEF about the Oxford University vaccine.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=...72247209722726

Likely ready for distribution in a few months.

70% were immune after one dose, 100% after the second dose.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Minor correction: they showed antibodies we assume makes them immune.

I'm confident the antibodies are enough, but we won't know until vaccinated people are exposed.


Either way, it will be great if we can vaccinate ourselves into normal again.

I would like to see something more official and detailed than a Facebook post. I would sincerely like to see my pessimism re an effective vaccine proved wrong but this does nothing to alleviate my concerns.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 05:20 AM   #630
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Ok, I thought it might be a good time for a quick summary, being six months since the thread started.

After three months, 2,681,000 cases of Covid had been confirmed. To line up deaths a bit better, I'm using the death total of 7 May, two weeks after the last possible infection date. That total was 272,000 deaths. Mortality rate of just over 10%
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Since then, we have seen 12,600,000 more cases and there have been another 358,000 deaths. Mortality rate 2.8%.

Given that an enormous number of cases haven't been counted, it seems highly likely that rate is 10 times too high and the actual IFR is somewhere around 0.3%.
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The disease hasn't got less virulent, but we've got a lot better at treating it, hence the large reduction in deaths from early on. We also now have at least one drug with a high likelihood of reducing the death rate. If we presume a high for IFR of 0.6%, and that can be reduced by a further 75%, we're looking at a worst-case of IFR at 0.08.
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An unknown, but significant percentage of infected people have ongoing symptoms, of an unknown duration and severity. That rate is hard to figure, but there's some information available.

10% of 4 million people tracking symptoms via an App are reporting ongoing illness. https://www.sciencealert.com/why-are...-from-covid-19

We can't quantify who's responding to the App, but my experience of human behaviour says it's more likely people with few or no symptoms will sign up to the App and report, so if we look at 5% of confirmed cases, I think we'd be somewhere near right. With 90% of cases having not been tested, we get a rate of severe, ongoing illness of 0.5%, which seems to fit with anecdotal reports.

If left unchecked, that could mean as many as 50 million people around the world are debilitated by the disease, possibly for many years.
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Vaccines

The virus has shown an inherent stability, with no change to the important genetic markers, so there's no reason a vaccine won't work, and with so many promising results, I expect vaccines to start to be available from January 2021, or even maybe before christmas. The only issue will be delivering them, but with several being produced in mass quantities in readiness, I think they should be available for high-risk groups pretty quickly.
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Responses to the pandemic

Most countries have done very well at keeping the spread in check, which has undoubtedly saved tens or hundreds of thousands of lives. Places like Germany and Norway never got hospitals anywhere near breaking point, so patients didn't need to be triaged for death, which helps a lot.

I expect those countries will continue to hammer and dance their way until vaccines are here.

Summary - while the pandemic and deaths are far from over, I think we just about have the little bastard virus on the run.

Until the next one...

The six-month milestone is also as good a place as any to acknowledge what just might be, in terms of significance if not actual technical wrongness, the wrongest post ever posted in these forums. This was the second post in the original thread:

Originally Posted by Myriad
Of course it will take time to develop a vaccine, but vaccines for similar viruses already exist and I haven't heard of any obvious obstacle to creating one for the new strain. Heck, my wife just got a vaccination that's supposed to immunize against 23 different pneumonia-causing strains. (Obviously, not including the new one.)

So, even though a post like the OP is precisely the way one of my favorite life-as-we-know-it-ending nightmare scenarios begins, I don't think it's likely to happen this time.

Oops!
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Old 23rd July 2020, 05:50 AM   #631
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
I would like to see something more official and detailed than a Facebook post. I would sincerely like to see my pessimism re an effective vaccine proved wrong but this does nothing to alleviate my concerns.
Here you go:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...604-4/fulltext

The study mentions that the vaccine showed strong antibody and T-cell response in the trial subjects.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 05:52 AM   #632
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
face shields - I suggest it is a matter of cost benefit. The cost of a face shield is far higher than a mask. Plus they will need cleaning. So unless a person is interacting with lots of people who have a good chance of having the virus then it is not worth it.

What has happened where I live is that there are screens between the customers and the staff at the counters.
Not really. I think mine cost two bucks. I don't remember. We got a pack of 10 from Amazon, and my wife made the order, but they weren't expensive.

It's a piece of flexible plastic attached to a simple head harness. I saw them at Lowe's when I was in there, so they are available. I figured it was a pretty crummy face shield, but then I started noticing the printing style on pictures of health workers. I'm pretty sure I'm using exactly the same thing that I see in those pictures, so I think it's adequate. It isn't some sort of custom molded appliance. Masks need to be cleaned as well, but it's harder to clean the the masks than the face shields.

The discomfort factor is real. They fog up. That might be a function of not using them well. Maybe there's a way to prevent that. Also, they trap the air a bit, so that after I've been in the store for a while, I find that I'm breathing stale air. It's unpleasant.

Is it worth it? It's a minor cost and a minor inconvenience. I suppose it is probably a minor level of protection as well, but I'm certain it is giving some benefit, or they wouldn't be recommended for anyone.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 06:09 AM   #633
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Here you go:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...604-4/fulltext

The study mentions that the vaccine showed strong antibody and T-cell response in the trial subjects.
Thanks. A lot of that is above my comprehension level but it does look promising. A concern of mine has been long term effectiveness. If it has to be given on an annual basis that would be fine. If effectiveness fades after a few months the practicality may be questionable. We will see.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 07:17 AM   #634
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While the IFR with treatments common in March/April has turned out to be around .6% improved treatments have reduced it somewhat since.

My concern is shifting to possible long term effects. We don't know much about these yet. Some bugs have fewer acute effects and lower death rates initially but severe effects down the road. HIV, for instance, typically causes mild flu like symptoms, if any, at first then pops up perhaps 3 to 10 years later where it tends to kill almost everyone. Or at least did until the last few decades.

Now that is unusual, Covid-19 isn't AIDs or Syphilis and such a fate is extremely unlikely but what will the long term consequences be for the 10% or so that seem to have long lasting effects? I suspect a year from now this will be the main concern.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 07:19 AM   #635
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
face shields - I suggest it is a matter of cost benefit. The cost of a face shield is far higher than a mask. Plus they will need cleaning. So unless a person is interacting with lots of people who have a good chance of having the virus then it is not worth it.

What has happened where I live is that there are screens between the customers and the staff at the counters.
They've even got them in at least one of our cheap and cheerful low cost stores for £1.99, cheaper than any reusable mask I've seen on sale in a shop:

https://www.homebargains.co.uk/produ...ce-shield.aspx
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Old 23rd July 2020, 08:01 AM   #636
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There are lots of wee YouTube videos going around showing how to make effective face shields from 2-litre Pepsi bottles, water-cooler bottles and even a clear A4 stationary pocket, the sort of thing I put my music printouts into to clip them in a folder. I think that last one needed a thin hairband as well.
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Old 23rd July 2020, 08:02 AM   #637
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
They've even got them in at least one of our cheap and cheerful low cost stores for £1.99, cheaper than any reusable mask I've seen on sale in a shop:

https://www.homebargains.co.uk/produ...ce-shield.aspx
Very similar to mine. Mine says "Face Shield", in blue and white. I've seen it in lots of photos.

It's a piece of plastic for the face, a piece of foam that sits on the forehead, and some elastic to keep it on your head. Very cheap.

Lots of varieties in stock at Amazon. They do seem all slightly different, but with similar lettering, so mine might not be exactly the sort worn in hospitals. It might be there are good face shields and not so good face shields. When it comes to droplet transmission, I would think it would be nearly perfect protection, which is not true of typical cloth masks. Not sure about aerosols. As for protecting others, it would seem better than a mask alone.

I'm not saying that everyone ought to be wearing them, but I am surprised that my wife and I have never seen anyone else wearing them, at all.

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Old 23rd July 2020, 08:02 AM   #638
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Talking of the Hammer and the Dance, I just noticed Scotland's most recent figures.

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Old 23rd July 2020, 08:55 AM   #639
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
....but what will the long term consequences be for the 10% or so that seem to have long lasting effects? ....
That is 10% of who? I assume hospitalized patients? When 93% of us are asymptomatic, 10% of 7 percent is .7% tops.

I wonder how many have chronic effects from: Epstein-Barr, Chickenpox,.....
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Old 23rd July 2020, 09:46 AM   #640
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I don't know how you shop for groceries, but I never talk to anyone other than the counter staff, which is the only person I'm ever face to face with.
I don't talk to anyone when I go to the supermarket, unless I need to ask where something is. I use the hand scanner, so don't even need to go to the human-operated till.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Very similar to mine. Mine says "Face Shield", in blue and white. I've seen it in lots of photos.
...
I'm not saying that everyone ought to be wearing them, but I am surprised that my wife and I have never seen anyone else wearing them, at all.
I've seen staff in the supermarket wearing them, and in a hair salon.
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