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Old 17th May 2020, 11:24 AM   #641
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
New Zealand is functionally covid free yet the restaurants are open and deserted.
It will take a little time, but if we get another fortnight of zero cases, people will start to go out again.

The only industry truly screwed in NZ is tourism, and even that won't disappear completely, with lots of Kiwis wanting to take a break within the country and not have to compete with squillions of tourists.
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Old 17th May 2020, 12:47 PM   #642
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It will take a little time, but if we get another fortnight of zero cases, people will start to go out again.

The only industry truly screwed in NZ is tourism, and even that won't disappear completely, with lots of Kiwis wanting to take a break within the country and not have to compete with squillions of tourists.

I heard someone (Peter Dutton?) about a week ago saying the Australian Immigration Department officials are looking into easing travel restrictions, or lat least NZ first.
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Old 17th May 2020, 12:50 PM   #643
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Black Swan Event Under Way

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
To be fair, typical investors also hold on to things, including stocks, long after they ought to realize that they are overvalued.

Eugene Fama got the economics Nobel prize for research quantifying that tendency.

A truly rational and well informed investor would recognize when economic or business conditions have changed, resulting in a company's real value changing, and they would sell shares until the price dropped to the new, more realistic, value that reflected current economic conditions. However, that doesn't happen. People tend to overvalue things that they already own. When applied to stocks, that means people tend to stick with a stock that they already own, even when it ought to be apparent that the true value of the company has dropped, which ought to make the stock price drop.

The result is that when something bad happens to a company, or in the current case to a whole lot of companies simultaneously, there tends to be a delay between the bad thing happening and the drop in stock price that the bad thing causes.

ETA: That still doesn't mean that I know whether current stock prices are overvalued. For companies that do not go bankrupt, many will recover, so their current really bad year shouldn't mean that their stock prices ought to reflect this year's awful performance.

Were you replying to me, because you shouldn't have. I wasn't talking about typical investors.
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Old 17th May 2020, 01:02 PM   #644
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Were you replying to me, because you shouldn't have. I wasn't talking about typical investors.
I know.

You were saying what calm and rational investors do. I was saying that typical investors also do the same thing. The difference is that a calm and rational investor will look at the inherent value of the company, and will not panic and sell when the price goes down. A typical investor will hold onto a stock when the price goes down, waiting for it to come back up, even if the fundamentals of the stock strongly suggest that it will never come back up, or at the very least, will take so long to come back that there are other, better, investments that could be made.

In other words, and this was the primary result of Fama's research, people tend to overvalue stocks that they already own. They tend not to look at their stocks rationally. So, people who "buy and hold", might be calm, rational investors who know that a given stock is currently undervalued, and they should hold onto it, but they also might be typical investors who overvalue what they have in their possession, and hold onto their stocks, ignoring the signs that the company is not as valuable as it once was, or that it once was believed to be.
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Old 17th May 2020, 01:09 PM   #645
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I heard someone (Peter Dutton?) about a week ago saying the Australian Immigration Department officials are looking into easing travel restrictions, or lat least NZ first.
Yep, a potential trans-Tasman bubble is in play - both Cindy & Morrison are pretty keen.

As are all the skifield owners & operators, with only a month until opening day.
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Old 17th May 2020, 11:16 PM   #646
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The Atheist, and there's Queensland and Victoria fighting over Virgin Airlines' home state, plus Qantas hanging on and putting on more flights last week from the UK.

Meadmaker, that's good. I was alluding to Warren Buffet and contrarian investing.
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Old 18th May 2020, 12:40 AM   #647
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, a potential trans-Tasman bubble is in play - both Cindy & Morrison are pretty keen.

As are all the skifield owners & operators, with only a month until opening day.
Agreed. Once there are direct flights all the Australians that want to do an overseas holiday will visit New Zealand. The only competition would be a domestic holiday. Not sure this will compensate for the loss of American and European tourists. Also I think tourists will not want to visit in winter so in spring New Zealand will start to get heaps of tourists from Australia.

Australia's tourist industry will not earn much international currency. The operators will be ok as they will get a lot of domestic tourists, but hardly any international ones.
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:50 AM   #648
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
The Atheist, and there's Queensland and Victoria fighting over Virgin Airlines' home state, plus Qantas hanging on and putting on more flights last week from the UK.
There's a sensible plan - almost like having had very few domestic cases, it's time to import some.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Also I think tourists will not want to visit in winter so in spring New Zealand will start to get heaps of tourists from Australia..
I really don't know, but I suspect the travel bug might mean a fair few do. Obviously, skiers will flock in, but that's not going to be any increase on a normal winter. I think the top half of North Island, where there's plenty for tourists to do and it's not that cold, might work out ok.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 01:00 AM   #649
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's a sensible plan - almost like having had very few domestic cases, it's time to import some.
There's a 2 week quarantine period, at least.

I've seen that on other international flights into other countries from other countries.
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Old Today, 01:09 AM   #650
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I believe black swan draws blood from here.
Diarised on ISF
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Old Today, 03:20 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I believe black swan draws blood from here.
Diarised on ISF
Also black swan contingency plans.
(For posterity.)
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