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Old 14th February 2020, 02:03 PM   #1041
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
This is also not good news: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
While all those reasons for the false negatives are certainly possible, I'd put these at the top of the list:
Quote:
Alternatively, there could be a problem with the way the tests are being conducted.

There are throat swabs and then there are throat swabs.

"Is it a dangle or a good rub?" asks Dr MacDermott.

And if the samples are not correctly stored and handled, the test may not work.
People think with a throat swab anyone can easily do it. It's not easy to get a good specimen. And if people aren't specifically trained in this procedure, I can see how the specimens are not handled properly after they are collected.
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Old 14th February 2020, 02:06 PM   #1042
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
Welcome to the host pathogen relationship.
That's not helpful. I know that.

I am asking why you aren't equating an aged immune system with "weaker"?
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Old 14th February 2020, 02:30 PM   #1043
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's not helpful. I know that.



I am asking why you aren't equating an aged immune system with "weaker"?


I do not think itís a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. Itís coined original antigenic sin. Itís too complicated to just say itís weak.


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Old 14th February 2020, 02:55 PM   #1044
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
There could be a number of cases in India and poorer countries in Africa that have simply been attributed to flu and other common infections. I wonder what the threshold of pneumonia admissions to hospitals and deaths from pneumonia has to be before any alarm bells go off?
That's exactly what I've been on about - India in particular.

When your government ministries and ministers promote homeopathy and drinking cow urine, I have zero faith in their systems.
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Old 14th February 2020, 03:19 PM   #1045
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
I do not think itís a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. Itís coined original antigenic sin. Itís too complicated to just say itís weak.
I'm not saying this doesn't happen. There have been a few seasons when the flu which circulates reverses the norm and the elderly do much better than younger people.

I have heard all sorts of hypotheses over the years and past acquired immunity usually tops the list.

But that is unusual, most years the age reversal is not the case.

Currently CoVID19 is worse in the elderly. So past acquired immunity isn't helping much.

I don't have an issue with you preferring not to use 'weaken' but here's another thing to consider: The elderly have aged hearts and lungs and that is surely contributing to morbidity and mortality here.
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Old 14th February 2020, 03:25 PM   #1046
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
I do not think itís a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. Itís coined original antigenic sin. Itís too complicated to just say itís weak.


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The problem is that a lot of damage from flu and similar viral infections is collateral damage from the immune system. In humans flu viruses do not occur outside of the respiratory system; but people with severe flu get encephalitis (brain inflammation), myocarditis (heart inflammation), and myositis (muscle inflammation). All of these are due to an 'overactive' immune response. It may well be that much of the pneumonia in covid 19 is due to collateral damage from the immune system. So there is a critical balance you need enough of an immune response to eradicate the virus but not so much as to damage the body. Dengue haemorrhage fever the most severe form of dengue infection occurs with a second infection, when the host has a strong immune response, a second infection is more dangerous than a first infection when there is no effective immune response.
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Old 14th February 2020, 03:28 PM   #1047
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And.... an infectious disease expert from Japan interviewed on NHK Newsline believes Japan needs to move into stage 2 of this pandemic. Stage 2 is "Accelerating"

The reason is the evidence of how many people have slipped through the quarantine nets because they were likely infectious before developing symptoms.

A taxi driver in Okinawa contracted the virus from transporting passengers from the ill-fated cruise ship is one reason why:
Quote:
NAHA -- An Okinawan taxi driver who drove at least one passenger from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship earlier in February has tested positive for the new coronavirus, the Okinawa Prefectural Government announced on Feb. 14.

Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki had told a news conference earlier that there was a suspected case of infection in the southernmost prefecture, and that the person involved was believed to have had contact with a passenger on the Diamond Princess. The taxi driver was identified as a woman in her 60s. The woman had received a medical checkup after showing symptoms of suspected pneumonia.

According to the Okinawa Prefectural Government, there is a possibility that roughly 2,600 passengers disembarked from the Diamond Princess when the ship called at Naha Port in the prefecture on Feb. 1. Approximately 200 people including tourist bus drivers who have had contact with those passengers have been through medical checkups.
While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
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Old 14th February 2020, 03:41 PM   #1048
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
I think there's no doubt at all we're going to see a wave break in the next few days, with hundreds or more cases around the world. The long lead time on infection, plus the potential that 90% or more of infections probably aren't serious enough for people to take action seems to mean there's a bit of a critical mass to achieve for it to start being noticed in wider quantities.
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Old 14th February 2020, 04:31 PM   #1049
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
The problem is that a lot of damage from flu and similar viral infections is collateral damage from the immune system. In humans flu viruses do not occur outside of the respiratory system; ....
Yes they do.

H5-specific RNA was detected in the lung, spleen, and small and large intestines by RT-PCR (Figure 2A).... virus replication was confined to the lung and intestine.

The eyes have it: influenza virus infection beyond the respiratory tract.
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Old 14th February 2020, 04:54 PM   #1050
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The NYT has a new article today
One thing mentioned is that a Fiat factory in Serbia shut down because they do not have the parts they need from China. I'm surprised there haven't been more market jitters as this thing could definitely cause an economic slowdown. The potential of this being pandemic seems more and more likely with each passing day.
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Old 14th February 2020, 05:00 PM   #1051
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I bumped into that kind of thing two weeks ago.

A local store had advertised fleecy hooded tops...

When I went to buy one they said:

"The stock hasn't arrived, we've contacted our supplier and they said that nothing had come out of China for weeks."

A side effect of just-in-time is that a glitch in one place can shut down a lot of other places.
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Old 14th February 2020, 05:09 PM   #1052
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I gotta figure JIT inventory accelerates productivity more than enough to offset the occasional breakdown of the system.
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Old 14th February 2020, 05:49 PM   #1053
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Are the American doomsday preppers going into action yet? Will we see a run on ammunition purchases? Will armed militias protect small towns and other enclaves?
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Old 14th February 2020, 06:03 PM   #1054
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And.... an infectious disease expert from Japan interviewed on NHK Newsline believes Japan needs to move into stage 2 of this pandemic. Stage 2 is "Accelerating"

The reason is the evidence of how many people have slipped through the quarantine nets because they were likely infectious before developing symptoms.

A taxi driver in Okinawa contracted the virus from transporting passengers from the ill-fated cruise ship is one reason why:
While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
Flights between Australia and China have been severely reduced. I wonder if flights between Japan and Australia will be reduced for the same reason?

We know of one case in Japan, there could be several more. Each one of these people would then spread it to others. It would require a massive task to isolate everyone who has had contact with infected people. Even harder if the test for the virus produces false negative results.
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Old 14th February 2020, 06:20 PM   #1055
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I'm reminded of the line from 'The Towering Inferno'

"It's out of control, and it's coming your way."

I would expect preppers (apologies if that's not your preferred term for yourselves) to be in a bit of a quandary at the moment.

This is clearly the kind of thing that some people have prepared for.

But... When do they seek shelter?

You can't wait until you're infected, that's clearly too late.

But. if you go early, there's a risk that you consume all your supplies for nothing, or even worse, consume all your supplies just before things get really bad.

A fire, or flood, or declaration of war... those things are have clear points/events. But a virus that's sneaking* around the world, that's diffuse and hard to predict.


*I know it's not meaningful to attribute any kind of purpose to a virus, but it conveys the idea...
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Old 14th February 2020, 06:41 PM   #1056
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Chinese restaurants are taking a hit in America and other countries. Many are reporting that business is down 50%.

Chinatowns in the big American cities are now in trouble and the virus hasn't really spread here.
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Old 14th February 2020, 07:07 PM   #1057
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In Australia the education sector is taking a big hit, as is the tourism sector.

There are a lot of articles saying that 100,000 Chinese students have not been able to return here for the current semester.
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Old 14th February 2020, 07:16 PM   #1058
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Some stories from Japan. It certainly feels out of control.

http://www.newsonjapan.com/html/news...cle/126384.php
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Old 14th February 2020, 07:32 PM   #1059
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
I'm surprised there haven't been more market jitters as this thing could definitely cause an economic slowdown.
I've been saying for the past two weeks that the virus causing an economic recession seems certain to me and I'm not sure why the sharemarkets aren't seeing it - they're normally the first place to panic.

Tourism is taking a huge hit worldwide, and that has a flow-on effect, even before the component shortage starts to hit.

NZ lumber companies have been laying off staff for the past week, because orders have dried up and Aussie coal will hit the same problem.

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Some stories from Japan. It certainly feels out of control.

http://www.newsonjapan.com/html/news...cle/126384.php
The part of that story that's the most concerning is this bit:

Quote:
Meanwhile, 11 infected people from the ship are in a serious condition.
Given the majority of the ship cases have been found in the past few days, I'd be surprised if any of those were classed as serious already, so it's going to be 11 out of only about 50 cases total, which is a very ugly percentage.

I hope hospitals are making better plans around the world than sharemarkets appear to be.
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Old 14th February 2020, 08:29 PM   #1060
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I haven't heard any speculation about the possibility of intentional bioterrorism yet. But I can see how it could easily be arranged.
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Old 14th February 2020, 08:53 PM   #1061
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I've been saying for the past two weeks that the virus causing an economic recession seems certain to me and I'm not sure why the sharemarkets aren't seeing it - they're normally the first place to panic.
Markets have been trained to buy on the dips for the last 10 years and it has proven profitable.

I expect things will change shortly. Also, shortages will cause price increases and this isn't easily remedied by QE or liquidity injection. Interesting to see what effect this has on bond prices and interest rates generally. I think this is a fairly obvious black swan event. Market algos have never been good at tail risk.
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Old 14th February 2020, 09:00 PM   #1062
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This is why all the speculation about case fatality rate is a fool's errand.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
Quote:
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020
It's from the favorite Worldometer site.
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Old 14th February 2020, 10:32 PM   #1063
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's very hard to say at this stage, but there are a few estimates that put the mortality rate at around 3%-4%. In other words, between 96% and 97% of people who are infected recover.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
This is why all the speculation about case fatality rate is a fool's errand.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
It's from the favorite Worldometer site.
Snap. Same link and only one day apart.
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Old 14th February 2020, 10:46 PM   #1064
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Snap. Same link and only one day apart.
You're just looking at a different part of the link. The paragraph I quoted essentially says these (links at the link) calculations are nothing but unreliable speculation.
Quote:
Presented on this page:

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
Mortality Rate (2.1% Nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
Mortality Rate comments by the WHO (2% estimate, but too early to tell)
Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
Comparison with other viruses
We know for a fact that the cases we see are biased toward the sicker patients. And look at the range in those cited links.

That the data is biased toward sicker patients was reinforced in the last couple days when more and more cases have turned out to have been spread by asymptomatic patients. There are many hidden cases.
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Old 14th February 2020, 11:23 PM   #1065
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Market algos have never been good at tail risk.
Yeah, I've been wondering if the Johnnies in the market these days are so attuned to algorithmic trading they forgot how to think.

It seems to me to be a clear and no-brain short.

Gold traders look like they're on it, with a nice spike since the virus was discovered.

China reckons they have it under control, with falling numbers everywhere outside of Hubei. I reckon they're kidding themselves.
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Old 14th February 2020, 11:56 PM   #1066
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Interesting take from a couple of profs from U of Queensland: https://theconversation.com/theres-n...ossible-131653
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Old 15th February 2020, 12:10 AM   #1067
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting take from a couple of profs from U of Queensland: https://theconversation.com/theres-n...ossible-131653
I find it very odd that there have not been many cases where a person has caught the virus despite not being on a cruise ship or been in China. Maybe those that are likely to travel from China are also the ones least likely to have the virus. Like students are generally young and healthy so they may be able to get rid of the virus easily if they get it. And they are the ones who want to come to Australia (and elsewhere), rather than retirees.
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Old 15th February 2020, 12:45 AM   #1068
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yes, there are a number of similar papers around. You have to understand that these papers exist because the claims are extraordinary. It is a bit like finding a paper that claims to have observed cold fusion and then saying cold fusion exists. Such observations would overthrow decades of research and thousands of papers studying the replication of flu.

Flu viruses have to bind to a specific cell receptor to infect cells. That receptor is found on cells in the human respiratory tract, but not elsewhere. Flu vaccines are designed on the basis that this is how flu viruses work. For flu viruses to infect cells outside of the respiratory tract that do not express these receptors then one of several explanations would have to be true. 1) This is a novel flu virus (that would be highly virulent) that shows pantropism. This does occur in some non-human flu viruses. This has never been observed. 2) This is a new variant human that expresses respiratory cell receptors on non respiratory cells. This has never been observed. 3) There was contamination of tissue samples when they were collected (likely). 4) There was in laboratory contamination when doing the tests (possible).

Yes for some flu viruses particularly avian ones there is a theoretical possibility of eye infections. Not surprising because via the tear duct the eye is in continuity with the respiratory tract. This is why wearing eye protection is part of PPE. I should have been more precise in saying respiratory and conjunctiva.


As your first paper concludes,
Quote:
In contrast to disseminated infection documented in other mammals and birds, H5N1 viral replication in humans may be restricted to the lung and intestine, and the major site of H5N1 viral replication in the lung is the pneumocyte.
Quote:
The multiorgan dysfunction observed in human H5N1 disease, despite the apparent confinement of infection to the lungs, has remained an enigma. The hypothesis that cytokine dysregulation may contribute to the pathogenesis of severe H5N1 disease remains a possibility.
In birds flu is primarily a GI infection, the shift to human infection occurs because the receptor in birds GI cells is similar to a receptor in human respiratory tract cells. There is a similar receptor in the human GI tract and in theory there could be binding in the GI tract but even this paper does not claim they have shown active infection in the GI tract.

The second quote above really makes the point I was trying to make despite the confinement of flu infection to the lungs multiorgan dysfunction occurs and this is thought to be due to 'cytokine dysregulation' - collateral damage from the immune system and NOT directly mediated viral damage.

Unfortunately one paragraph comments on the internet are never going to be a detailed and accurate thesis on viral pathogenesis. I was trying to make a broad observation about the importance of a balanced immune response and the idea of a strong or weak response was simplistic.

ETA
In retrospect the most accurate term for me to have used was to say flu viruses in humans are limited to mucosal membranes, and do not affect organs such as the heart or brain despite the occurrence of encephalitis and myocarditis.

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Old 15th February 2020, 01:19 AM   #1069
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Yes, there are a number of similar papers around. You have to understand that these papers exist because the claims are extraordinary. It is a bit like finding a paper that claims to have observed cold fusion and then saying cold fusion exists. Such observations would overthrow decades of research and thousands of papers studying the replication of flu.

Flu viruses have to bind to a specific cell receptor to infect cells. That receptor is found on cells in the human respiratory tract, but not elsewhere. Flu vaccines are designed on the basis that this is how flu viruses work. For flu viruses to infect cells outside of the respiratory tract that do not express these receptors then one of several explanations would have to be true. 1) This is a novel flu virus (that would be highly virulent) that shows pantropism. This does occur in some non-human flu viruses. This has never been observed. 2) This is a new variant human that expresses respiratory cell receptors on non respiratory cells. This has never been observed. 3) There was contamination of tissue samples when they were collected (likely). 4) There was in laboratory contamination when doing the tests (possible).

Yes for some flu viruses particularly avian ones there is a theoretical possibility of eye infections. Not surprising because via the tear duct the eye is in continuity with the respiratory tract. This is why wearing eye protection is part of PPE. I should have been more precise in saying respiratory and conjunctiva.

As your first paper concludes,

In birds flu is primarily a GI infection, the shift to human infection occurs because the receptor in birds GI cells is similar to a receptor in human respiratory tract cells. There is a similar receptor in the human GI tract and in theory there could be binding in the GI tract but even this paper does not claim they have shown active infection in the GI tract.

The second quote above really makes the point I was trying to make despite the confinement of flu infection to the lungs multiorgan dysfunction occurs and this is thought to be due to 'cytokine dysregulation' - collateral damage from the immune system and NOT directly mediated viral damage.

Unfortunately one paragraph comments on the internet are never going to be a detailed and accurate thesis on viral pathogenesis. I was trying to make a broad observation about the importance of a balanced immune response and the idea of a strong or weak response was simplistic.

ETA
In retrospect the most accurate term for me to have used was to say flu viruses in humans are limited to mucosal membranes, and do not affect organs such as the heart or brain despite the occurrence of encephalitis and myocarditis.
What a pile of crap. Here you go again making unsupportable assertions.

Are you unable to understand the research?

Quote:
H5-specific RNA was detected in the lung, spleen, and small and large intestines by RT-PCR ...

The successful extractions of RNA from all organs were confirmed by the amplification of GAPDH mRNA (data not shown). We also tested whether the RNA was genomic RNA from virion or replicating RNA and mRNA from productively infected cells. To determine this, we conducted strand-specific RT-PCRs. Positive- and negative-stranded viral RNA was found in the lung, small intestines, and large intestines, but only negative-stranded RNA was detected in the spleen (Figure 2B). Because of the absence of positive-stranded RNA, which would serve as mRNA and the template for genome replication, we concluded that viral replication was absent or very low in the spleen and that the viral RNA detected in the spleen was probably nonreplicating virion RNA.
Contamination was ruled out.

How is it you think this is some iffy research making extraordinary claims?

As for the eye, flu presenting as conjunctivitis has been known for years. Google it.

And BTW, avian flu infects more than just their GI tracts.

Survival of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus in Tissues Derived from Experimentally Infected Chickens.
Quote:
The maximum periods for viral survival were observed in samples stored at +4įC in all tissue types and were 240 days in feather tissues, 160 days in muscle, and 20 days in liver. The viral infectivity at +20įC was maintained for a maximum of 30 days in the feather tissues, 20 days in muscle, and 3 days in liver.
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Old 15th February 2020, 01:30 AM   #1070
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
What a pile of crap. Here you go again making unsupportable assertions.

Are you unable to understand the research?

Contamination was ruled out.

How is it you think this is some iffy research making extraordinary claims?

As for the eye, flu presenting as conjunctivitis has been known for years. Google it.
I am sorry you seem to be missing the point I am making.

This stuff about flu replication in organs such as the spleen brain etc. is a long time issue in virology. There are very strong views on it. People post these papers because it is controversial.

As I said I was imprecise in saying respiratory tract, being slightly too simplistic for a lay audience, and a better term would be mucosa which would have covered all options even rare ones. I accept that the conjunctiva can be directly infected, and there may be rare cases when particularly avian viruses infect the human GI tract, but you are missing the point I was really making in trying to nitpick the details.
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Old 15th February 2020, 01:57 AM   #1071
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And in cats: Cat study shows the H5N1 virus attacking gut and other organs.
Quote:
Avian flu ravages tissues throughout the body, confirms an autopsy of infected cats. ...

In a follow-up study, published in the American Journal of Pathology this month2, they carefully probed the tissues of eight infected animals.

The virus wreaks havoc in the brain, liver, kidney, heart and numerous other tissues, they find, killing cells and triggering inflammation....

Researchers already knew that the H5N1 virus, like other pathogenic avian flu viruses, spreads throughout the body of birds. But they are only beginning to identify the genetic tricks that allow H5N1 to march into so many tissues.
Viremia and extra-respiratory complications appear to be more common for infections with avian H5N1 virus than with human influenza viruses.
Quote:
However, human influenza virus infection also is associated with disease in other organs, albeit to a lesser extent. Given the recent reports of extra-respiratory disease from highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus infection (see below), it is important to revisit these complications of human influenza virus infection...

The advent of endomyocardial biopsies at the time of acute disease together with sensitive (in situ) RT-PCR techniques have made it possible to detect the presence of influenza viral RNA in inflamed myocardial tissue in some cases [41;58] but not in others [59;60;60]. It is not clear what the target cells of influenza virus in human heart tissue are: Cioc and Nuovo [41] detected influenza viral RNA in lymphocytes and macrophages within the myocardium of a person who died suddenly and unexpectedly with marked diffuse myocarditis and marked cardiomyocyte necrosis. Ray et al. [56] detected influenza viral antigen throughout the myocardium (cell types showing antigen expression not stated) of a patient with massive myocardial necrosis and associated lymphocytic and mononuclear infiltrates. The necrosis and inflammatory process in the myocardium could be explained by a combination of direct cytolytic effect of viral infection and the host immune response....

The isolation of the virus from the blood of two patients [85;86] and the detection of H5N1 viral RNA by RT-PCR in 9 of 16 patients [87] suggests that viremia can occur at reasonably high levels and for prolonged periods in people with symptomatic H5N1 virus infection [30]. Such viremia would allow H5N1 virus to spread to extra-respiratory tissues. Indeed, pathological investigations provide evidence for the presence of H5N1 virus in multiple extra-respiratory tissues by immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridisation, or both, often in association with lesions. The brain, where H5N1 virus has been found in neurons, is edematous without significant histologic lesions, or with demyelination, necrosis, and accumulation of reactive histiocytes....

The liver, where H5N1 virus has been found in Kupffer cells, shows hepatic necrosis, hepatic lipidosis, cholestasis, and Kupffer cell activation. Lymph nodes, where H5N1 virus has been found in lymphocytes, have reactive histiocytes with hemophagocytotic activity. Such evidence of hemophagocytosis also is present in spleen, bone marrow, lungs, and liver.
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Old 15th February 2020, 02:00 AM   #1072
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I am sorry you seem to be missing the point I am making.

This stuff about flu replication in organs such as the spleen brain etc. is a long time issue in virology. There are very strong views on it. People post these papers because it is controversial.

As I said I was imprecise in saying respiratory tract, being slightly too simplistic for a lay audience, and a better term would be mucosa which would have covered all options even rare ones. I accept that the conjunctiva can be directly infected, and there may be rare cases when particularly avian viruses infect the human GI tract, but you are missing the point I was really making in trying to nitpick the details.
So you take it back. Got it.

This is what you said:
Quote:
You have to understand that these papers exist because the claims are extraordinary
No, I don't have to understand, because you're wrong.
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Old 15th February 2020, 02:33 AM   #1073
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think there's no doubt at all we're going to see a wave break in the next few days, with hundreds or more cases around the world. The long lead time on infection, plus the potential that 90% or more of infections probably aren't serious enough for people to take action seems to mean there's a bit of a critical mass to achieve for it to start being noticed in wider quantities.
I'm working in Windsor at the moment and Windsor is a big tourist draw for tourists, especially Chinese tourists. About 2 weeks ago I had what I think was a bad cold, bit feverish, etc. About a week before that I had gone to McDonalds for a drink (strawberry milkshake, nothing beats it) I used the touch screen system. I didn't wipe the screen before I ordered or washed my hands and those giving out your orders don't wear gloves etc. Now I don't think I've had it but if there was someone infected I can see how easily it could be spread very quickly, I am slightly surprised we haven't seen more outbreaks around tourist attractions.

Chinese tourists have now pretty much disappeared from Windsor, tourist based business are suffering economically, another knock on that people on the whole haven't thought about.
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Old 15th February 2020, 02:34 AM   #1074
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
The NYT has a new article today
One thing mentioned is that a Fiat factory in Serbia shut down because they do not have the parts they need from China. I'm surprised there haven't been more market jitters as this thing could definitely cause an economic slowdown. The potential of this being pandemic seems more and more likely with each passing day.
JCB plant in UK has reduced hours.
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Old 15th February 2020, 03:22 AM   #1075
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ScienceAlert: These Are The Early Symptoms of The New Coronavirus, According to The Latest Research.
https://www.sciencealert.com/latest-...s-to-watch-for
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Old 15th February 2020, 04:01 AM   #1076
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First death confirmed in Europe

A Chinese tourist has died in France after contracting the new coronavirus - the first fatality from the disease outside Asia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51514837
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Old 15th February 2020, 04:27 AM   #1077
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I'm working in Windsor at the moment and Windsor is a big tourist draw for tourists, especially Chinese tourists. About 2 weeks ago I had what I think was a bad cold, bit feverish, etc. About a week before that I had gone to McDonalds for a drink (strawberry milkshake, nothing beats it) I used the touch screen system. I didn't wipe the screen before I ordered or washed my hands and those giving out your orders don't wear gloves etc. Now I don't think I've had it but if there was someone infected I can see how easily it could be spread very quickly, I am slightly surprised we haven't seen more outbreaks around tourist attractions.

Chinese tourists have now pretty much disappeared from Windsor, tourist based business are suffering economically, another knock on that people on the whole haven't thought about.

SARS Covid-19 doesn't present as a cold, with runny nose and sneezing. All you get is a high fever, aches and pains and a dry cough.

Secondly, I am pretty sure McDonalds workers wear latex gloves.

However, you are right to be wary of public places. I joined a gym just before this time last year in London. It was very popular and within two weeks I went down with a horrible cold/flu, which I know was due to unclean gym equipment (=lots of people having gripped the treadmills and bikes, etc). You just know. After that, I transferred to a brand new gym and all was well.
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Old 15th February 2020, 04:35 AM   #1078
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Thank you to the beautiful country of Cambodia for accepting the @CarnivalCruise ship Westerdam into your port. The United States will remember your courtesy!
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Old 15th February 2020, 04:38 AM   #1079
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Wrong thread

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Old 15th February 2020, 04:42 AM   #1080
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Wrong thread

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