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Old 12th December 2019, 06:57 PM   #1
dudalb
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Next up Scotxit...

If Johnson tries to deny a second referendum on Indepdence to Scotland, it could get ugly...very ugly.
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Old 13th December 2019, 02:06 AM   #2
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It depends on what you mean by "ugly".



There's not going to be violence on the streets, or at least not any more than a normal Saturday night in Glasgow.


What will be interesting is that if BoJo doesn't address the issue properly, it will bolster the SNP position and help build support for a future independence vote.
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Old 13th December 2019, 03:16 AM   #3
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Surely it's a no-brainer for the Scots now?

How depressing. If I move to Scotland now, would they let me stay?
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Old 13th December 2019, 04:23 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Johnson tries to deny a second referendum on Indepdence to Scotland, it could get ugly...very ugly.
If?

Dave
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Old 13th December 2019, 04:33 AM   #5
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I think that Johnson will cite the once in a generation principle for the referendum. He has shown with Brexit that no matter what, he wants to see a referendum result stand and be enacted.

Scotland has already had 2 referendums and neither resulted in independence.

I voted SNP for the first time ever, but I was voting to protect Scottish public services. I was not voting because I want a third say on independence.
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Old 13th December 2019, 05:51 AM   #6
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Sturgeon is claiming a landslide.

2017 election - 35 seats, 977,569 votes, 3% of the UK vote, 36.9% of the Scottish vote
2019 election - 48 seats, 1,242,380 votes, 3.9% of the UK vote, 45% of the Scottish vote.

I do not think that is enough to claim landslide.
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Old 13th December 2019, 06:13 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Sturgeon is claiming a landslide.

2017 election - 35 seats, 977,569 votes, 3% of the UK vote, 36.9% of the Scottish vote
2019 election - 48 seats, 1,242,380 votes, 3.9% of the UK vote, 45% of the Scottish vote.

I do not think that is enough to claim landslide.
Well, if a UK-wide party ever won over 80% of seats, nobody would hesitate to call that a landslide and they'd be grasping for an even more hyperbolic term.
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Old 13th December 2019, 06:20 AM   #8
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I remember arguing last time that Scotland would not be in the EU if it broke away from the RoUK , seems I was right but for the wrong terrible reason.

I've always said a decision should be up to the inhabitants of Scotland but now I cannot see any benefit for Scotland to remain in the UK.
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Old 13th December 2019, 06:44 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I cannot see any benefit for Scotland to remain in the UK.
What about the huge bungs of cash they receive from English taxpayers via the Barnett formula?
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Old 13th December 2019, 07:03 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What about the huge bungs of cash they receive from English taxpayers via the Barnett formula?
Don't Scottish residents pay tax?
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Old 13th December 2019, 07:08 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Don't Scottish residents pay tax?
Yes, of course they do. But the Scots are still net receivers of significant amounts of money from English taxpayers. If Scotland leaves the UK then they'll lose that subsidy, and the Scots will be poorer.

Last edited by ceptimus; 13th December 2019 at 07:10 AM.
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Old 13th December 2019, 07:10 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes, of course they do. But the Scotts are still net receivers of significant amounts of money from English taxpayers. If Scotland leaves the UK then they'll lose that subsidy, and the Scotts will be poorer.
But if they join the EU they won't have the longterm downturn Brexit will cause.
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Old 13th December 2019, 07:50 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes, of course they do. But the Scots are still net receivers of significant amounts of money from English taxpayers. If Scotland leaves the UK then they'll lose that subsidy, and the Scots will be poorer.
No, they will have to raise taxes and/or lower spending. It's not insurmountable, especially if they are in the EU.
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Old 13th December 2019, 08:25 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Surely it's a no-brainer for the Scots now?

How depressing. If I move to Scotland now, would they let me stay?

Yes.
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Old 13th December 2019, 08:27 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Scotland has already had 2 referendums and neither resulted in independence.

What are you on about? Scotland has only had one referendum in which independence was a choice offered to voters.

Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I was not voting because I want a third say on independence.

You have only ever had one say on independence.
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Old 13th December 2019, 08:28 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What about the huge bungs of cash they receive from English taxpayers via the Barnett formula?

Thanks, we'll just keep our own assets and resources and tax receipts rather than giving everything to England and seeing the proportion England sees fit to give us back as pocket money described sneeringly as "a huge bung of cash from English taxpayers". We'll be fine.

Scotland has been a net contributor to the UK every single year there are figures available. Don't be fooled by accounting procedures that allocate to Scotland things Scotland would never in a million years want to spend money on, which were explicitly designed (by Ian Lang) to make Scotland look like an economic basket case.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
No, they will have to raise taxes and/or lower spending. It's not insurmountable, especially if they are in the EU.

We can start by lowering spending on Crossrail, Canary Wharf, the London sewers, HS2, the Jubilee line, the Channel Tunnel and whatever all else got re-branded as a "whole-UK" project so Scotland could be made to pay. Next time you have the Olympics in London, pay for it yourself like we paid for the Commonwealth Games. Then there's the defence spending allocated to Scotland's account which is simply insane for a small independent country with significant allies to be undertaking. And how much are you prepared to pay us to let you keep Trident at Faslane for the next ten years or so? That ain't going to come cheap.
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Old 13th December 2019, 09:45 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Well, if a UK-wide party ever won over 80% of seats, nobody would hesitate to call that a landslide and they'd be grasping for an even more hyperbolic term.
The real landslide was the 2015 election, when the SNP went from 6 to 56 seats and got 1.45 million votes. That was only a year after the independence referendum.

The Scottish are happier with the SNP as a party, than they are with the SNP's policy of independence.
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Old 13th December 2019, 09:49 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We can start by lowering spending on Crossrail, Canary Wharf, the London sewers, HS2, the Jubilee line, the Channel Tunnel and whatever all else got re-branded as a "whole-UK" project so Scotland could be made to pay. Next time you have the Olympics in London, pay for it yourself like we paid for the Commonwealth Games.
Except that none of those where wholly funded by central government, and some if not all of them only had a minority of such funding. Crossrail, for example, is funded from a variety of sources, many of them London-specific, e.g. Transport for London, the City of London Corporation, and various London business interests.

Quote:
Then there's the defence spending allocated to Scotland's account which is simply insane for a small independent country with significant allies to be undertaking.
Sure, Scotland just doesn't need to project power in the way the UK currently does, so can get away with a much smaller defence budget.

Quote:
And how much are you prepared to pay us to let you keep Trident at Faslane for the next ten years or so? That ain't going to come cheap.
It would still have to be cheaper than the cost of relocating.
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Old 13th December 2019, 09:50 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
What are you on about? Scotland has only had one referendum in which independence was a choice offered to voters.




You have only ever had one say on independence.
The 1979 devolution referendum was at the time being marketed as a step to independence. It fell at the first hurdle.
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Old 13th December 2019, 10:23 AM   #20
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Don't be silly. Independence wasn't on the ballot paper in 1979. It was a choice between a far weaker form of devolution than what we ended up with and nothing at all. And may I remind you that Yes won by about the same margin as Leave won by in 2016.

(Also, devolution was being marketed as a way to keep Scots happy and ease calls for independence, just the same as it was in 1997. Were you even old enough to vote in 1979? Because if you were, you must heve sleep-walked your way to the polling station.)
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Old 13th December 2019, 10:30 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Except that none of those where wholly funded by central government, and some if not all of them only had a minority of such funding. Crossrail, for example, is funded from a variety of sources, many of them London-specific, e.g. Transport for London, the City of London Corporation, and various London business interests.

And? Scotland has been notionally charged for all these items.

Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Sure, Scotland just doesn't need to project power in the way the UK currently does, so can get away with a much smaller defence budget.

It would still have to be cheaper than the cost of relocating.

We would much prefer that you relocated it ASAP. However, accepting that this is not possible in the short term, we'll kindly lease you the right to leave it where it is until you can make suitable arrangements.
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Old 13th December 2019, 10:55 AM   #22
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I would happily see an independent Scotland not in NATO, like Ireland. I think Scotland should pitch itself as a neutral country that does not get involved in wars.
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Old 13th December 2019, 10:58 AM   #23
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Not going to disagree with that.
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Old 13th December 2019, 02:04 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I would happily see an independent Scotland not in NATO, like Ireland. I think Scotland should pitch itself as a neutral country that does not get involved in wars.
Which is easy to do if you are basically hiding behind other coutnries to protect you sovereignity.
And was Irish Neutrality in World War 2 such a great thing? It defacto helped Hitler.
Of course my opinion of doctrinaire pacifism under all circumstances is pretty low anyway.
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Old 13th December 2019, 02:09 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
If?

Dave
I can see an SNP Scottish Parliament adapting some kind of Indepndence resolution.
I suggest "When In the Course Of Human Events" as the opening sentence....
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Old 13th December 2019, 03:19 PM   #26
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Well, y'know, I went round the houses with you lot about Scottish independence six years ago. Anyone can find the thread if they like. Not doing it again. There's only so often you can whack the mole of "too wee too poor too stupid" on the head before you get tired of it.

If we get a second independence referendum I think we'll win it. That's not the interesting part, and it's not even the current issue. The current issue is that Sturgeon has repeatedly stated that she will not call a second referendum without a Section 30 order, and her grand strategy for getting one of these is to ask Boris Johnston nicely, and when he says no way in hell, wait a bit and ask nicely again. How is this going to play out?

Commentators talk as if all Scottish independence needs is the will, and poof, it will happen. No it won't. There are legal steps which have to be going through in order for independence to be internationally accepted. Sturgeon has painted herself into a corner which on the face of it gives Boris Johnston a veto. Unlike many commentators (and indeed unlike many Scots), Johnston knows the value of Scotland's resources and exactly the depth of the doo-doo that England will be in without them.

This is the interesting part.
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Old 13th December 2019, 03:39 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Well, y'know, I went round the houses with you lot about Scottish independence six years ago. Anyone can find the thread if they like. Not doing it again. There's only so often you can whack the mole of "too wee too poor too stupid" on the head before you get tired of it.

If we get a second independence referendum I think we'll win it. That's not the interesting part, and it's not even the current issue. The current issue is that Sturgeon has repeatedly stated that she will not call a second referendum without a Section 30 order, and her grand strategy for getting one of these is to ask Boris Johnston nicely, and when he says no way in hell, wait a bit and ask nicely again. How is this going to play out?

Commentators talk as if all Scottish independence needs is the will, and poof, it will happen. No it won't. There are legal steps which have to be going through in order for independence to be internationally accepted. Sturgeon has painted herself into a corner which on the face of it gives Boris Johnston a veto. Unlike many commentators (and indeed unlike many Scots), Johnston knows the value of Scotland's resources and exactly the depth of the doo-doo that England will be in without them.

This is the interesting part.
Johnson.
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Old 13th December 2019, 03:41 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Architect View Post
It depends on what you mean by "ugly".
If they're going to call it "Scotxit", then it's starting out pretty ******* ugly already.
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Old 13th December 2019, 03:59 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Johnson.

I don't really care. I've got several sets of relations with that surname spelled with and without the t and some have an e on the end and I'm damned if I know which is which and frankly life's too short.
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Old 13th December 2019, 04:19 PM   #30
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If Scots feel so strongly about independence that they don't mind giving up subsidies from England and being somewhat poorer as a result, then I support them. You know, of course, that I feel the same about Brexit - even if it makes us poorer then I still want it done.
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Old 13th December 2019, 04:52 PM   #31
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Scotland - Schroedinger's country. Simultaneously too poor to go it alone and too valuable to let go.

I have to say it's the gaslighting job to end all gaslighting jobs. Take all Scotland's assets and resources, declare them "UK property" (UK meaning England), give back a proportion of the money and declare that this is English largesse Scotland should be abjectly grateful for.

Then set up an accounting system that loads Scotland with notional debt which is actually accrued at UK level (as the Scottish government runs a balanced budget), and sneer about Scotland's huge deficit. And people actually believe this.

Scotland is an eye-poppingly well-endowed country as regards resources and assets. If we are indeed an economic basket case under the union, then that's a pretty damning indictment of the union and the sooner we're out of it the better.
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Old 13th December 2019, 04:58 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Scotland - Schroedinger's country. Simultaneously too poor to go it alone and too valuable to let go.

I have to say it's the gaslighting job to end all gaslighting jobs. Take all Scotland's assets and resources, declare them "UK property" (UK meaning England), give back a proportion of the money and declare that this is English largesse Scotland should be abjectly grateful for.

Then set up an accounting system that loads Scotland with notional debt which is actually accrued at UK level (as the Scottish government runs a balanced budget), and sneer about Scotland's huge deficit. And people actually believe this.

Scotland is an eye-poppingly well-endowed country as regards resources and assets. If we are indeed an economic basket case under the union, then that's a pretty damning indictment of the union and the sooner we're out of it the better.
You'd think that inventing the United States would be easier the second time around. But somehow the EU is still trying to figure out why their square wheel isn't rolling as well as an actual wheel.
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Old 14th December 2019, 03:05 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is easy to do if you are basically hiding behind other coutnries to protect you sovereignity.
And was Irish Neutrality in World War 2 such a great thing? It defacto helped Hitler.
Of course my opinion of doctrinaire pacifism under all circumstances is pretty low anyway.
Scotland and Ireland are the small countries on the edge of Europe, the furthest from the main threat (if it is much of a threat) of the Russians.

The chances of the Russians getting through the countries we are in effect hiding behind is nil.

For the main European nations, knowing that there is no chance of attack from the west is very important strategically. Ireland was a huge help to the UK during WWII, especially all the Irish who came to fight with the British.

Ireland only uses its armed forces to nominally protect Ireland and in reality, to join with peacekeeping missions via NATO or the UN. It also supplies many people who join the British armed forces, which they are entitled to do.

It makes sense that Scotland should have a similar set up to Ireland. If Scots want to go abroad and fight wars, join the British armed forces (or what ever it is called post independence). Otherwise, Scotland nominally protects itself and will participate in peacekeeping.
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Old 14th December 2019, 03:13 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
...

If we get a second independence referendum I think we'll win it...
I think you need absolute definitive proof of winning.

That the UK is not going to have a second EU referendum now, despite all that has happened over the past few years, means the standard for a second referendum not long after a previous one, has to be very high indeed.

I think that being forced out of Europe is a reasonable justification towards a second Indy Ref. But I do not think it is enough.

I think there needs to be proof that consistently, the vast majority of Scots want out of the UK.
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Old 14th December 2019, 04:24 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
And? Scotland has been notionally charged for all these items.
I guess they may "notionally" paid 9.6% of a minority of the funding in some of your examples. As I noted, the vast majority of funding for Crossrail comes from London, which of course raises a third of UK tax for only 15% of the population, but only benefits from 9% more public spending per capita than the UK average. In that context, the idea of other bits of the UK "paying" for "London-only" projects is moot.

On the Olympics, though, the UK participates as the UK, and the UK was the host in 2012. In the Commonwealth Games, though, the homes nations compete separately, so Scotland was the host in 2014.

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Old 14th December 2019, 04:27 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I would happily see an independent Scotland not in NATO, like Ireland. I think Scotland should pitch itself as a neutral country that does not get involved in wars.
That's an option, of course, and I wouldn't condemn the country for going down that route if that's the popular choice. It does run contrary to the defence policy set out in the Scotland's Future document, although what it set out seemed overly ambitious at the time.
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Old 14th December 2019, 04:40 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
If they're going to call it "Scotxit", then it's starting out pretty ******* ugly already.
Yeah, I can see Scoxit or, in an informal and derogatory way, Joxit. But "Scotxit"? How is that even pronounced?
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Old 14th December 2019, 05:21 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, I can see Scoxit or, in an informal and derogatory way, Joxit. But "Scotxit"? How is that even pronounced?
"Throatwobbler mangrove."
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Old 14th December 2019, 05:57 AM   #39
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"Scot ****, the Scottish scoots." Like something escaping from a Caledonian nappy.

Please find a better name soon.
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Old 14th December 2019, 06:00 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
"Scot ****, the Scottish scoots." Like something escaping from a Caledonian nappy.
Och, for a wee bairn you make an awfy stank!
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