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Old 14th December 2019, 07:01 AM   #41
Nessie
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, I can see Scoxit or, in an informal and derogatory way, Joxit. But "Scotxit"? How is that even pronounced?
It was Brex-zit, so Scot-zit. Or it could be Scots-it.
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Old 14th December 2019, 07:06 AM   #42
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Sometimes a pattern just isn't extensible. "Scottish Exit" doesn't come together the way "British Exit" does.
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Old 14th December 2019, 07:10 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
It was Brex-zit, so Scot-zit. Or it could be Scots-it.
How about Scexit?
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Old 14th December 2019, 07:24 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
How about Scexit?
This land was green and good, before the EU cracked.
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Old 14th December 2019, 07:44 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Sometimes a pattern just isn't extensible. "Scottish Exit" doesn't come together the way "British Exit" does.
Familiarity, when Brexit started to be banded about people complained it was ugly etc.
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Old 14th December 2019, 08:11 AM   #46
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In all my years, born in Scotland to English parents who had settled here in the 1960s and all the crap I have had to put up with, being slagged off for being English in Scotland and Scottish in England (mostly ribbing, nothing serious), I have always been happy to be a bit of both and British.

Brexit has destroyed that and there is a side to England (I have Welsh relatives and my experience there has not been the same) that I really do not like and actually feel a bit ashamed by.

To use an analogy, Scotland is now to England what Canada is to the USA and with Trump and Johnson, leaders who are unfit to lead, but are adored because one is very rich and the other very upper middle class, which oddly, are seen as admirable characteristics, despite those individuals clearly being power hungry and out for themselves and their small part of society.
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Old 14th December 2019, 08:13 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
It was Brex-zit, so Scot-zit. Or it could be Scots-it.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Sometimes a pattern just isn't extensible. "Scottish Exit" doesn't come together the way "British Exit" does.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
How about Scexit?
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Familiarity, when Brexit started to be banded about people complained it was ugly etc.
Now you guys know what it's been like in American since '73/'74 watching the media put "-Gate" suffix on everything no matter how linguistic clunky.
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Old 14th December 2019, 08:17 AM   #48
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The first rejection;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50789771

"Boris Johnson has told Nicola Sturgeon that he remains opposed to a second independence referendum, despite the SNP's general election success.
The PM spoke to the first minister by phone on Friday evening, with Downing Street saying he had "reiterated his unwavering commitment" to the union.
Mr Johnson insisted the result of the 2014 referendum "should be respected".

Not surprising at all, Johnson has made it clear he thinks referendum results should be respected.
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Old 14th December 2019, 08:43 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If Scots feel so strongly about independence that they don't mind giving up subsidies from England and being somewhat poorer as a result, then I support them. You know, of course, that I feel the same about Brexit - even if it makes us poorer then I still want it done.
I hope the scotts do get independence. Another country to compete with the idiocracy that is the U.K now, But the scotts will have the benefit of being E.U members.

Congrats on the decline of England and the U.K. Just remember you helped make it happen, now reap what you and the other tribalists have sewn. Hope independant Scottand steals the best trade deals.

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Old 15th December 2019, 02:37 AM   #50
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If an independent Scotland is an EU member it will have very good trade deals (and superb ones compared to the ones the rUK will get)
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Old 15th December 2019, 05:39 AM   #51
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True. We're already being told semi-officially that EU membership will be facilitated and quick, and also membership of the Nordic Council. Getting that past the wall-to-wall pro-union independence-bad propaganda from virtually all the print and broadcast media (especially from the BBC) is the hard part though. People believe what they see on the BBC and the BBC has been lying to Scotland since about forever.
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Old 15th December 2019, 11:16 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What about the huge bungs of cash they receive from English taxpayers via the Barnett formula?
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Old 15th December 2019, 11:18 AM   #53
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We are looking at the Dawn of the United Kingdoms of Scottland, Ireland and Wales, of course.
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Old 15th December 2019, 12:57 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
We are looking at the Dawn of the United Kingdoms of Scottland, Ireland and Wales, of course.
That would require a king, of course. Is there still a Jacobite pretender?

ETA: This guy, according to Wikipedia.
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Old 15th December 2019, 01:46 PM   #55
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The PM could ask Sturgeon what intervals she wants between referendums (until Scotland votes leave). Ten years would be reasonable, in my opinion, and the next referendum would then become available in 2024, assuming the Scottish government still wish to hold one at that time.

I think repeat referendums on the same question should be spaced rather more than a maximum government term apart. What do you think is a reasonable interval?

If there is to be a second Scottish Indyref, whenever it is held, we need to get a guarantee of how long a 'No' result will be respected before the SNP start demanding a third.

Last edited by ceptimus; 15th December 2019 at 01:50 PM.
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Old 15th December 2019, 02:09 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The PM could ask Sturgeon what intervals she wants between referendums (until Scotland votes leave). Ten years would be reasonable, in my opinion, and the next referendum would then become available in 2024, assuming the Scottish government still wish to hold one at that time.

I think repeat referendums on the same question should be spaced rather more than a maximum government term apart. What do you think is a reasonable interval?

If there is to be a second Scottish Indyref, whenever it is held, we need to get a guarantee of how long a 'No' result will be respected before the SNP start demanding a third.
It was supposed to once in a generation, so 2044.

The issue is whether forcing Scotland out of the EU, when it very much wants to remain, should bring that forward or not.
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Old 15th December 2019, 03:05 PM   #57
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It was never "supposed" to be once in a generation. Various people used the phrase "once in a generation (or occasionally once in a lifetime) opportunity", as a way to emphasise that the attitude which one encountered from time to time that maybe 2014 wasn't the right time, we should get what concessions we could now and then go again in a few years time was by no means a given.

Both Johnson and Corbyn used the exact same phrase about last week's election. Are we going to stop having general elections until someone agrees that "a lifetime" has passed then? It's a figure of speech for goodness sake.

But having said all that, in relation to the question of Northern Ireland having referendums about rejoining Ireland, "a generation" has been defined as seven years.
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Old 15th December 2019, 03:19 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The PM could ask Sturgeon what intervals she wants between referendums (until Scotland votes leave). Ten years would be reasonable, in my opinion, and the next referendum would then become available in 2024, assuming the Scottish government still wish to hold one at that time.

I think repeat referendums on the same question should be spaced rather more than a maximum government term apart. What do you think is a reasonable interval?

If there is to be a second Scottish Indyref, whenever it is held, we need to get a guarantee of how long a 'No' result will be respected before the SNP start demanding a third.
There is a strong argument that a drastic change of circumstances - or more information being available than previously - would merit a shorter time period between referendums. Given that Scotland was assured that staying in UK was the best way of staying in the EU back in 2014, and that that was clearly not true, circumstances have changed enough to merit another vote.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:07 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
We are looking at the Dawn of the United Kingdoms of Scottland, Ireland and Wales, of course.
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That would require a king, of course. Is there still a Jacobite pretender?

ETA: This guy, according to Wikipedia.
Would it require a king? The United Kingdom has no king right now, and as far as I know, an independent Scotland is not planning to be a republic. Scotland’s Future proposed keeping the monarch as head of state.

Wales is not going anywhere though.

But Ireland is never going to accept the British monarch.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:12 PM   #60
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A nation should be able to vote on its future as often as it wants to. This "We won't let you, get back in your box till we say you can come out" attitude isn't helping anything. In particular pretty much every promise made to Scotland in order to bribe people to vote No in 2014 has been broken, and every awful warning of what might happen to us if we had the temerity to vote Yes has actually happened, short of the Chinese government demanding the return of the pandas and your actual alien invasion.

A majority in Scotland is in favour of having another independence referendum in the near future. That's democracy. People with no skin in the game but who display a strange combination of sneering contempt for Scotland together with a desire to hang on to us as a possession saying "no you can't" is not a good look.

Of course that includes Boris Johnson who is actually in a position to enforce his view. He knows how valuable Scotland's assets are to England, and he has the usual colonialist disinclination to lose a colonial possession, so he's just going to ignore the SNP for the next five years if he possibly can. The interesting thing will be to see if the SNP can do anything about that. In my opinion we need a new leader who has a much more can-do attitude and the sooner Sturgeon goes the better. At the moment my favoured candidate is Joanna Cherry.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:15 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
There is a strong argument that a drastic change of circumstances - or more information being available than previously - would merit a shorter time period between referendums. Given that Scotland was assured that staying in UK was the best way of staying in the EU back in 2014, and that that was clearly not true, circumstances have changed enough to merit another vote.
As long as the SNP continue to lose IndyRefs, they will continue to come up with 'things have changed' excuses to hold another one. Things will always change, but we need a guarantee of a minimum time interval between referendums before agreeing to hold a second one.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:19 PM   #62
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Quote:
Would it require a king? The United Kingdom has no king right now, and as far as I know, an independent Scotland is not planning to be a republic. Scotland’s Future proposed keeping the monarch as head of state.

Wales is not going anywhere though.

But Ireland is never going to accept the British monarch.

This is a totally pointless diversion. Scotland, Ireland and Wales are not going to be a united anything, whatever happens.

Northern Ireland will probably become a part of Ireland again. Scotland will (hopefully) become an independent member of the EU, just like Ireland. Scotland will also join the Nordic Council, of which Ireland is not a member.

Wales is in the early stages of a journey it may not be able to complete. Being brutally honest, there are way too many English people living in Wales who have a vote on the future of Wales but who see Wales as a possession, as a county of England where they happen to live and they dn't want not to be living in England any more, for a vote in favour of independence to be at all easy to win. Wales also has a worse problem from the too-wee-too-poor-too-stupid propaganda merchants than Scotland has. They're not, of course, but they've had their assets stolen and appropriated on an even more colossal scale than Scotland has and the resulting cringe is fairly pronounced.

But we'll see.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:21 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
As long as the SNP continue to lose IndyRefs, they will continue to come up with 'things have changed' excuses to hold another one. Things will always change, but we need a guarantee of a minimum time interval between referendums before agreeing to hold a second one.

Who is this "we"?

But since we aren't going to lose a second time, it's a fairly academic point.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:26 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Familiarity, when Brexit started to be banded about people complained it was ugly etc.
I hope you're right. "Brexit" clicked for me the first time I saw it, no prior familiarity. I don't think "Scotxit" is ever going to click, even if I do get used to it
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:27 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
A nation should be able to vote on its future as often as it wants to.
Not how democracy works. Normally, when a democracy elects a government or President, then that's it - you don't get another vote for four or five years - whatever the fixed or maximum term is. Why should repeated referendums on the same topic be any different?

I argue that referendum decisions on constitutional matters should have a much greater lifespan than a normal government term - but I'm willing to be persuaded otherwise if I agree with rational arguments in favour of shorter intervals.
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:32 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Who is this "we"?

But since we aren't going to lose a second time, it's a fairly academic point.
We are the UK public, including Scots, who are sick and tired of hearing the same stuff repeated ad nauseam by Sturgeon and her SNP colleagues.

If Sturgeon was as confident as you, she could agree that any second IndyRef decision will be binding for a minimum of, say, fifty years. But we both know she would never agree to that.

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Old 15th December 2019, 04:35 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not how democracy works. Normally, when a democracy elects a government or President, then that's it - you don't get another vote for four or five years - whatever the fixed or maximum term is. Why should repeated referendums on the same topic be any different?

I argue that referendum decisions on constitutional matters should have a much greater lifespan than a normal government term - but I'm willing to be persuaded otherwise if I agree with rational arguments in favour of shorter intervals.


Plus the national parliament of a nation state (in this case the UK) gets to decide whether to allow a sub-entity of that nation state (in this case Scotland) to hold an independence referendum. End of story. This is not a semantic point, and nor is it purely a political oneupmanship game. The whole gets to decide whether part of that whole should choose to leave or stay within that whole.

I suggest that anyone considering how this might play out should read up on the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, which was held against the wishes of the Spanish national parliament (which legally, ethically, economically and culturally had the absolute right to decide whether part of its whole should be allowed to vote on independence). Spoiler: it really didn't turn out well for the Catalan government.....
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Old 15th December 2019, 04:37 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
A nation sub-entity of a sovereign nation state should be able to vote on its future as often as it wants to.

Yeah..... uh....... no.
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Old 15th December 2019, 07:24 PM   #69
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What's to stop an extra-governmental revolution for Scotland? Bugger the Union Rules(TM). Simply declare independence and freedom from the Union, turn the (sub-entity) government into the government of the new country, put up border gates, forge new alliances, and then start making your own damned mistakes.

After all, some northern American bastages did that very successfully only a few hundred years ago...
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Old 15th December 2019, 07:37 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
What's to stop an extra-governmental revolution for Scotland? Bugger the Union Rules(TM). Simply declare independence and freedom from the Union, turn the (sub-entity) government into the government of the new country, put up border gates, forge new alliances, and then start making your own damned mistakes.

After all, some northern American bastages did that very successfully only a few hundred years ago...


What's to stop...? Well, only international law, refusal of recognition by the UN and every single other sovereign nation, immense difficulty in borrowing on the gilt/govt bond markets, international arrest warrants (and serious criminal charges if arrested) for all senior members of the government....

But other than that, yeah they should just go for it!


(Again: see Catalonia/Catalunya vs Spain)
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Old 16th December 2019, 12:25 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Johnson tries to deny a second referendum on Indepdence to Scotland, it could get ugly...very ugly.
Why would BoJo want to deny the second referendum to Scotland in the first place?

Consider the following: SNP is hostile to Tories, Scotland has ~50 seats in HoC and Tories aren't winning seats in Scotland any time soon.

Giving Scotland the second referendum has two possible results:
1. SNP is defeated yet again and BJ can claim yet another victory ot
2. SNP wins, Scotland secedes and BJ needs 25 fewer seats in HoC to retain a working majority.

Neither of those scenarios seem like a terrible defeat for BJ. I mean sure, he'd be the man who let Britain be torn asounder, but he'd stay in power for at least 5 years longer and that seems to be his sole goal in life.

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Old 16th December 2019, 12:37 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
What's to stop...? Well, only international law, refusal of recognition by the UN and every single other sovereign nation, immense difficulty in borrowing on the gilt/govt bond markets, international arrest warrants (and serious criminal charges if arrested) for all senior members of the government....

But other than that, yeah they should just go for it!


(Again: see Catalonia/Catalunya vs Spain)
Hey, it worked out OK for the American colonies When they did exactly that. Middle finger, declaration of independence, job done. And they don't seem to have suffered too much as a result. I don't seem to recall any English vote or international opprobrium either.

So what makes you think the Scots can't do it too? Or is this some sort of superiority issue?
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Old 16th December 2019, 01:24 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
This is a totally pointless diversion. Scotland, Ireland and Wales are not going to be a united anything, whatever happens.

Northern Ireland will probably become a part of Ireland again. Scotland will (hopefully) become an independent member of the EU, just like Ireland. Scotland will also join the Nordic Council, of which Ireland is not a member.

Wales is in the early stages of a journey it may not be able to complete. Being brutally honest, there are way too many English people living in Wales who have a vote on the future of Wales but who see Wales as a possession, as a county of England where they happen to live and they dn't want not to be living in England any more, for a vote in favour of independence to be at all easy to win. Wales also has a worse problem from the too-wee-too-poor-too-stupid propaganda merchants than Scotland has. They're not, of course, but they've had their assets stolen and appropriated on an even more colossal scale than Scotland has and the resulting cringe is fairly pronounced.

But we'll see.
If you find it totally pointless then ignore it. Instead, you simply agree with me and expand on the pointless diversion. Why?
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Old 16th December 2019, 01:28 AM   #74
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Hey, it worked out OK for the American colonies When they did exactly that. Middle finger, declaration of independence, job done. And they don't seem to have suffered too much as a result. I don't seem to recall any English vote or international opprobrium either.

So what makes you think the Scots can't do it too? Or is this some sort of superiority issue?
It's a tad easier to break away unilaterarily if you're a self-sufficient agricultural economy in a world of self-sufficient agricultural economies than in the modern era with out deeply integrated systems of trade and finance.

Just a tad.

American colonies were also a bit of a drag on the British economy, that probably helped too. Scotland is slightly less rich than the British average but well above the UK average without London.

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Old 16th December 2019, 02:25 AM   #75
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In terms of natural resources Scotland is stinking rich.
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Old 16th December 2019, 02:48 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Hey, it worked out OK for the American colonies When they did exactly that. Middle finger, declaration of independence, job done. And they don't seem to have suffered too much as a result. I don't seem to recall any English vote or international opprobrium either.

So what makes you think the Scots can't do it too? Or is this some sort of superiority issue?
I think that things have changed significantly in the last 240 years, I don't think that US independence is necessarily a good model in this day and age.

IMO it comes down to whether you can get support for your UDI from (enough of) the international community. Kosovo managed, Catalonia seem to be struggling. If the EU and/or US is willing to support Scotland following UDI, it'd be a fait accompli IMO.
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Old 16th December 2019, 02:49 AM   #77
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Isn't Sean Connery the rightful King of Scotland?
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Old 16th December 2019, 02:59 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
In terms of natural resources Scotland is stinking rich.
The greatest resource of any country, by far, is a credible and competent legal system to prevent corruption and a similarily competent educational system to provide skills to the populace. Everything else is way back, it's not irrelevant but without those two it might as well be. You probably also need a democracy to keep the legal system clean over a longer period of time, although that's less clear.

Natural resources can help a little of course.

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Old 16th December 2019, 03:21 AM   #79
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Well, you know, we've already got all those things too. Plus some stupid percentage of the world's top 100 universities per head of population.

Having travelled around a bit and seen a wide variety of independent countries who are doing well and who wouldn't go back to being a colony of their former colonial masters on a bet, it never ceases to amaze me that people will sit and ask, seriously "could Scotland survive as an independent country?"
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Old 16th December 2019, 03:40 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that things have changed significantly in the last 240 years, I don't think that US independence is necessarily a good model in this day and age.

IMO it comes down to whether you can get support for your UDI from (enough of) the international community. Kosovo managed, Catalonia seem to be struggling. If the EU and/or US is willing to support Scotland following UDI, it'd be a fait accompli IMO.


Kosovo managed because there was a clear case to be made that Kosovans were being treated disproportionately badly by Serbia, in terms of even limited self-government (which Serbia totally revoked), religious, cultural and ethnic considerations (there were countless documented instances of institutionalised persecution of Kosovan Albanians by Serbia), and financial support and investment. Oh and there'd been an ongoing war between Serbia (and Macedonia) against the Kosovan seperatists. Oh and the EU had actually negotiated independence for Kosovo (on account of the above criteria) under EU administration, but Serbia reneged on the agreement.

Not one of those factors applies to Scotland. Just as not one of those factors applied/applies to Catalonia. That's why the Catalan fiasco can justifiably be seen as a more-or-less readacross comparator to Scotland. IMO there is no way whatsoever that international law, the UN, or any sovereign nation state (other than perhaps a couple of basket cases) will recognise an independent Scotland if it decides to hold an independence referendum without the UK Parliament's consent. I suspect even Sturgeon may understand this......


ETA You're also absolutely right about the US independence model being of little or no relevance to the 21st-Century situation. The differences are too myriad to list - both in terms of the actual dynamics in play (a colony being governed and taxed by an administration several thousand miles away....) and the understanding of the definitions of sovereign states and other related international law issues.

Last edited by LondonJohn; 16th December 2019 at 03:44 AM.
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