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Old 3rd February 2020, 11:37 AM   #41
HansMustermann
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
What would the SNP do in this scenario?
I always thought Scotland should break off with the UK anyway and join Italy. It's warmer
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Old 3rd February 2020, 01:10 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Well... It does, but the bit that tends not to be mentioned is that it amends prospective legislation to address the reasons it was rejected between the votes. A little detail that makes the difference between "dictatorship" and "surely this is a sensible way for a democratic process to work".
It really doesn't, individual nations decide to have referendum.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 01:56 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
What would the SNP do in this scenario?

They leave the UK, apply for EU membership, then vote to re-join the UK, duh.
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Old 4th February 2020, 10:13 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
It really doesn't, individual nations decide to have referendum.
Okay, but, the actual instances that are pointed to where they "kept voting until they got the result they wanted" were cases where compromises were made to address the reasons that the proposals were rejected, and hence people legitimately voted them through the second time because they wanted to not because they were forced to. Yes you're technically right but when the person claiming that the EU forces people to keep voting until they vote the way the EU wants saying "No they don't" isn't convincing to someone who knows that Denmark voted twice on Maastricht or Ireland on Nice and Lisbon, and pointing out that the countries hold the referendum may be technically correct but doesn't address the objection being levelled, I think that pointing out the true circumstances in which these second votes were held is more useful.
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Old 4th February 2020, 10:57 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
Yes, well, if the idiots in the UK are anything like the idiots in Germany -- or indeed, idiots worldwide, since humans are humans everywhere -- they'll find some way to rationalize that they lack nurses or had to wait for 5 hours to be seen by a doctor, as the fault of the bloody refugees taking the jobs.
I often wonder how people rationalise their advocacy for encouraging trained medical staff from "developing" countries to desert them for "a better life" in the west.

That's rhetorical, of course - we're talking about liberals here, and they're generally too stupid for this to have even occurred to them.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:22 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Okay, but, the actual instances that are pointed to where they "kept voting until they got the result they wanted" were cases where compromises were made to address the reasons that the proposals were rejected, and hence people legitimately voted them through the second time because they wanted to not because they were forced to. Yes you're technically right but when the person claiming that the EU forces people to keep voting until they vote the way the EU wants saying "No they don't" isn't convincing to someone who knows that Denmark voted twice on Maastricht or Ireland on Nice and Lisbon, and pointing out that the countries hold the referendum may be technically correct but doesn't address the objection being levelled, I think that pointing out the true circumstances in which these second votes were held is more useful.
The whole thing is a one way ratchet. Always towards closer integration. Sure they may lose once in a while, but that is just them failing to move the ratchet on quite as far and as fast as they wanted. The direction of travel is right there in the Copenhagen criteria. Always towards political, economic and monetary union. But what about the countries that don't want political, economic and monetary union? The steps to union are all baby steps, and getting out is a giant leap... so it is always easier in the short terms to go on towards the destination you don't want.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:37 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by IsThisTheLife View Post
I often wonder how people rationalise their advocacy for encouraging trained medical staff from "developing" countries to desert them for "a better life" in the west.

That's rhetorical, of course - we're talking about liberals here, and they're generally too stupid for this to have even occurred to them.
Absolutely.... Romania is being bled white by the EU. It's population has dropped from 22.4 million in 2000 to 19.5 million in 2018. 17% of people born in Romania now live abroad. Working age Romanians are migrating to the EU by the millions. More than a quarter of Romanians want to live abroad. Romania is at the same time being hollowed out, and lowering wages in the countries they are emigrating to. How is this going to play out?
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:33 PM   #48
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My suggestion for those who want to rejoin the EU would be to form a new political party that is a single issue party. Call the party "Rejoin" (since the "Remain" ship has sailed). It's the opposite of the UKIP party or the Brexit Party.

Rejoin would take no positions on any other issues. Neither left nor right. No domestic policy agenda other than policies directly related to rejoining the EU (such as a new referendum, for example).

The thing is, it's not necessary for the party to ever achieve power to ultimately achieve its agenda. After all, UKIP or Brexit (the party) never won an election, yet the change they were agitating for eventually happened. It would force other parties like Labour to stop being wishy-washy if they want to appeal to Rejoin voters.

It will probably be several years until there is another general election. Enough time for people to realize what the actual economic consequences of Brexit are.
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Old 5th February 2020, 01:09 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
My suggestion for those who want to rejoin the EU would be to form a new political party that is a single issue party. Call the party "Rejoin" (since the "Remain" ship has sailed). It's the opposite of the UKIP party or the Brexit Party.

Rejoin would take no positions on any other issues. Neither left nor right. No domestic policy agenda other than policies directly related to rejoining the EU (such as a new referendum, for example).

The thing is, it's not necessary for the party to ever achieve power to ultimately achieve its agenda. After all, UKIP or Brexit (the party) never won an election, yet the change they were agitating for eventually happened. It would force other parties like Labour to stop being wishy-washy if they want to appeal to Rejoin voters.

It will probably be several years until there is another general election. Enough time for people to realize what the actual economic consequences of Brexit are.
The thing that the Brexit Party and UKIP before it were able to to very successfully was to attract considerable support from the "gammon" wing of the Conservative Party and in so doing terrify the Conservative Party to adopt policies eventually indistinguishable from the Brexit Party and UKIP.

It is entirely possible that a Rejoin Party could have a similar effect on Remain supporters and thus put the Labour Party and LibDems under pressure to change policy. My concerns are that they would be fighting against the following headwinds:
  • Rejoin doesn't have a ready-made propaganda unit (like Leave had with the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph) which has spread lies for the last 30 years. The EU that Brexiteers were voting against was largely fictional.
  • Labour and LibDem remain supporters seem less likely to shift parties - if the complete lack of success of TIG is anything to go by.
  • The LibDems may campaign on a Rejoin platform
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Old 5th February 2020, 02:36 AM   #50
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Is the assumption that the EU would waive the need to adopt the Euro if we rejoined?
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Old 5th February 2020, 02:48 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Is the assumption that the EU would waive the need to adopt the Euro if we rejoined?
I'm not sure that any assumptions are being made at this stage but IMO Euro adoption would be a prerequisite and that would ensure that any attempt to rejoin the EU would be dead in the water.
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Old 5th February 2020, 02:55 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not sure that any assumptions are being made at this stage but IMO Euro adoption would be a prerequisite and that would ensure that any attempt to rejoin the EU would be dead in the water.
I certainly agree that that would kill any attempt to rejoin unless the UK was in Mad Max levels of collapse. Having said that, the EU can unilaterally not enforce particular rules when it suits them. The real question is would it suit them?
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Old 5th February 2020, 03:09 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not sure that any assumptions are being made at this stage but IMO Euro adoption would be a prerequisite and that would ensure that any attempt to rejoin the EU would be dead in the water.
Doubt it, the youngsters today don't have the same emotional attachment to sterling as the older folk do.
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Old 5th February 2020, 03:23 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I certainly agree that that would kill any attempt to rejoin unless the UK was in Mad Max levels of collapse. Having said that, the EU can unilaterally not enforce particular rules when it suits them. The real question is would it suit them?
I think that one of the things that the EU has found frustrating w.r.t. the UK's membership is that it always felt that the UK wasn't really committed to the project and was always a reluctant member - a bit like someone who turns up regularly at a Parkrun but who never wants to take their turn as a marshal.

I don't think that the EU would want a similarly semi-detached relationship with a rejoining UK.
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Old 5th February 2020, 08:53 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
  • Rejoin doesn't have a ready-made propaganda unit (like Leave had with the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph) which has spread lies for the last 30 years. The EU that Brexiteers were voting against was largely fictional.
The BBC, Guardian, Daily Mirror not good enough for you?
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Old 5th February 2020, 09:12 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The BBC, Guardian, Daily Mirror not good enough for you?
The BBC, Guardian and Daily Mirror haven't got a history of making **** up about the EU in order to further the propaganda agenda of their billionaire owners.

The BBC is nominally neutral - but in Laura Kuenssberg have a pro-Tory, pro-Brexit shill as political editor so wouldn't be part of any nominally pro-Rejoin propaganda engine.

Between them the Guardian and Daily Mirror have a fraction of the circulation and a fraction of the reach of the Sun, Express, Mail and Telegraph.
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Old 5th February 2020, 09:15 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The BBC, Guardian, Daily Mirror not good enough for you?
Have any of those said they would be for a new campaign to join the EU?
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Old 5th February 2020, 09:50 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Have any of those said they would be for a new campaign to join the EU?
Of course not. It would be premature to suggest something like that before evaluating the effects of leaving.

So people keen on the idea of rejoining need to wait at least a year, probably two or three, before evaluating what the impact of leaving has been - they can then decide if they still wish to rejoin, and if there is likely to be enough support for their campaign.
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Old 5th February 2020, 10:07 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Have any of those said they would be for a new campaign to join the EU?
The BBC would never say it explicitly regardless. It would just become the assumed rational middle-ground position. As to the rest, I doubt they are going to come out in force for such a position just now. You'd need to go through a phase of having opinion pieces written to test the water... get some senior politicians to start dancing around it. They will need a legitimating narrative like "people didn't know what they were voting for". A lot will depend on how the power struggle within labour plays out.
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Old 5th February 2020, 11:43 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Is the assumption that the EU would waive the need to adopt the Euro if we rejoined?
Adopting the euro would be a mistake in my opinion. Britain was in the EU but retained its own currency before. I don't know why that would be a sticking point.
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Old 6th February 2020, 12:34 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Adopting the euro would be a mistake in my opinion. Britain was in the EU but retained its own currency before. I don't know why that would be a sticking point.
And I think older folk who see any value in which notes we have in our pocket need to realise the world is leaving them behind. Kids (under 30s) don't give a toss whose picture is on a bank note. Paying for something is what your phone is for, and if forced to not use their phone it is what those plastic cards are for not crinkly stuff in your pocket or wallet with some dead person's picture* on it.



*Ninety plus year old monarchs are functionally dead as far as kids are concerned, especially given how crap the selfie is on the notes.
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Old 6th February 2020, 01:40 AM   #62
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I was going to post the same thing re: currency.
Cash really is a dying thing. It may take a long time for it to eventually disappear (see cheques), if ever, but over the next 10 years it's going to slowly wither.
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Old 6th February 2020, 02:22 AM   #63
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Seems to me that the UK has so much to gain by joining the EU that it's a wonder why they aren't members already.
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Old 6th February 2020, 02:43 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Seems to me that the UK has so much to gain by joining the EU that it's a wonder why they aren't members already.
I have to agree.
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Old 6th February 2020, 02:50 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Seems to me that the UK has so much to gain by joining the EU that it's a wonder why they aren't members already.
An accident of hysteria history
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Old 6th February 2020, 08:34 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
Yes, well, if the idiots in the UK are anything like the idiots in Germany -- or indeed, idiots worldwide, since humans are humans everywhere -- they'll find some way to rationalize that they lack nurses or had to wait for 5 hours to be seen by a doctor, as the fault of the bloody refugees taking the jobs.
It seems you're trying to convince yourself that this is true.
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Old 6th February 2020, 08:35 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
I was going to post the same thing re: currency.
Cash really is a dying thing. It may take a long time for it to eventually disappear (see cheques), if ever, but over the next 10 years it's going to slowly wither.
Not in the US thankfully. Cash is alive and well and a cashless society doesn't bode well with American sensibilities.
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:11 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
"But tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!"
Wrong place for a Simpsons reference.
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:18 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
That would be almost sane, though.

I wasn't kidding. Before the refugees crisis and all, friend of mine was getting gas at a gas station, and this really old and presumably retired lady comes and starts complaining about how she got a new car every year, but this year she can't afford one. And it's the fault of those damn cheap Poles coming and taking all the jobs.

Exactly what did they take from her, or how cheap labour is to blame for more expensive cars, that wasn't particularly clear.
And that's why importing three million people annually from the third world is a good thing.
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Old 6th February 2020, 09:30 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Seems to me that the UK has so much to gain by joining the EU that it's a wonder why they aren't members already.
It's the fault of Brussel.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:14 AM   #71
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AFter the UK leaves the EU the UK economy collapses due to reduction in trade. This will be seen by the EU countries as a lesson not to leave themselves and to seek closer ties with each other instead.

The only way for the UK to rejoin the EU would be on the EU terms.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:41 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
AFter the UK leaves the EU the UK economy collapses due to reduction in trade.
I'm as big of a Brexit-sceptic as the next man (especially if that next man is an ardent Remainer), but I don't anticipate their being a collapse of the UK economy as a result of Brexit - even the no-deal Brexit I am anticipating and fearing.

Instead I think that the UK will gradually slip behind its former EU partners as a result of having somewhat slower growth over years or decades. Currently economically we're in the same league as Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries (as measured by per capita GDP measured on a PPP basis). I reckon that by the time I retire in 10-15 years time, the UK will be closer to Spain and Portugal and the most successful former Eastern bloc countries.

In 20-30 years time, the UK will be competing squarely against the more successful developing countries but will have the disadvantage of having a more moribund economy and a more ageing population

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This will be seen by the EU countries as a lesson not to leave themselves and to seek closer ties with each other instead.
I agree that this is likely to happen but that the catalyst will be less extreme effects on the UK economy.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
The only way for the UK to rejoin the EU would be on the EU terms.
I agree with this too. W.r.t. the EU, the UK was like a cat at the back door - not knowing whether it wanted to be in or out but definitely wanting the door left open even though it's freezing outside and the kitchen's getting cold. If the UK were to rejoin the EU it would have to do so as an enthusiastic new member with all that entails in terms of following the rules.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:09 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The thing that the Brexit Party and UKIP before it were able to to very successfully was to attract considerable support from the "gammon" wing of the Conservative Party and in so doing terrify the Conservative Party to adopt policies eventually indistinguishable from the Brexit Party and UKIP.

It is entirely possible that a Rejoin Party could have a similar effect on Remain supporters and thus put the Labour Party and LibDems under pressure to change policy. My concerns are that they would be fighting against the following headwinds:
  • Rejoin doesn't have a ready-made propaganda unit (like Leave had with the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph) which has spread lies for the last 30 years. The EU that Brexiteers were voting against was largely fictional.
  • Labour and LibDem remain supporters seem less likely to shift parties - if the complete lack of success of TIG is anything to go by.
  • The LibDems may campaign on a Rejoin platform
Not to mention Lib Dem leaders like Jo Swinson and Nick Clegg reminding us all that the Liberals are little more than Conservatives in disguise.

I always say you may as well vote for the real thing.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:15 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The BBC, Guardian, Daily Mirror not good enough for you?
I take it you never saw Fiona Bruce on Question Time sucking up to the apoplectic nescient Leavers in the audience.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:22 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
And I think older folk who see any value in which notes we have in our pocket need to realise the world is leaving them behind. Kids (under 30s) don't give a toss whose picture is on a bank note. Paying for something is what your phone is for, and if forced to not use their phone it is what those plastic cards are for not crinkly stuff in your pocket or wallet with some dead person's picture* on it.



*Ninety plus year old monarchs are functionally dead as far as kids are concerned, especially given how crap the selfie is on the notes.
In my childhood we had pounds, shillings and pence. Bring back the guinea, the farthing, the ten-bob note and thru'penny bit! People used to know how to add, divide and multiply. No electronic tagging by parents. You could go out all day without your parents checking up on you and nor did they worry <fx carted off mumbling incoherently about the good old days>
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Old 7th February 2020, 04:45 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
AFter the UK leaves the EU the UK economy collapses due to reduction in trade. This will be seen by the EU countries as a lesson not to leave themselves and to seek closer ties with each other instead.

The only way for the UK to rejoin the EU would be on the EU terms.
We have left the EU.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:57 AM   #77
Baylor
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
AFter the UK leaves the EU the UK economy collapses due to reduction in trade. This will be seen by the EU countries as a lesson not to leave themselves and to seek closer ties with each other instead.

The only way for the UK to rejoin the EU would be on the EU terms.
There are many things more important to a country than an economy. Living in a low-crime, high-trust homogeneous society far outweighs the concerns of "the economy."
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:24 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm as big of a Brexit-sceptic as the next man (especially if that next man is an ardent Remainer), but I don't anticipate their being a collapse of the UK economy as a result of Brexit - even the no-deal Brexit I am anticipating and fearing.
True. Brexit will harm the UK economy, but the real threat of collapse comes from putting the UK economy in the hands of people with idea how trade works.
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Instead I think that the UK will gradually slip behind its former EU partners as a result of having somewhat slower growth over years or decades. Currently economically we're in the same league as Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries (as measured by per capita GDP measured on a PPP basis). I reckon that by the time I retire in 10-15 years time, the UK will be closer to Spain and Portugal and the most successful former Eastern bloc countries.
IMO it’s more like a flat penalty. It won’t happen all at once but if the UK economy is otherwise well UK GDP will end up at a stable 10% below where it would have been had it remained part of the EU.
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Old 8th February 2020, 02:29 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
There are many things more important to a country than an economy. Living in a low-crime, high-trust homogeneous society far outweighs the concerns of "the economy."
How is that relevant to the UK or USA?
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Old 8th February 2020, 04:40 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
How is that relevant to the UK or USA?
Because people want to live in a low-crime, high trust homogenous country.
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