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Tags Congressional hearings , donald trump , impeachment , Trump administration , Trump controversies

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Old 26th September 2019, 04:32 PM   #281
Stacyhs
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I'm not trying to equate the two offenses, I'm equating the two outcomes. I'm saying that I'm predicting that, like Clinton, if he is impeached by the house he will not be convicted by the senate.
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:36 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I'm not trying to equate the two offenses, I'm equating the two outcomes. I'm saying that I'm predicting that, like Clinton, if he is impeached by the house he will not be convicted by the senate.
Proving that Clinton committed perjury was a slam dunk, but the Senate acquitted him anyway because they read the public weather vane: presidents shouldn't be removed from office for lying about consensual sex. I predict that this Senate will do the same, and this time we're talking about something more serious than what Nixon did, by someone who will continue to do the same if not stopped.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:38 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I'm not trying to equate the two offenses, I'm equating the two outcomes. I'm saying that I'm predicting that, like Clinton, if he is impeached by the house he will not be convicted by the senate.
The thing is that just saying "The Senate won't convict, so we can do nothing," is a bad option as that allows Trump to claim he did nothing wrong because he wasn't Impeached. He'll be like, "The Democrats tried to get me in multiple witch-hunts and they couldn't because I was innocent."

Surely, if you accept that his behaviour is impeachable, then the better course of action is to Impeach and make the case to the American people that he should be found guilty, and show that beyond doubt, and then should the Republicans exonerate the President against the weight of that evidence, you can go to the electorate and say, we did our job, you all know he is guilty, we need to get rid of the corruption in the senate too.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:39 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it.
I disagree, they wouldn't convict even if that happened.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:41 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Proving that Clinton committed perjury was a slam dunk, but the Senate acquitted him anyway because they read the public weather vane: presidents shouldn't be removed from office for lying about consensual sex. I predict that this Senate will do the same, and this time we're talking about something more serious than what Nixon did, by someone who will continue to do the same if not stopped.
Lying about having sex is not on the same level as using your office as POTUS to basically extort a foreign government into getting dirt on your political rival.

Stealing a cookie from the neighbor's cookie jar is theft. Forcing a teller to hand over $200K from the bank while pointing a gun at him is theft. Not on the same level.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:44 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it AND having the entire event played live on FOX News.
Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I disagree, they wouldn't convict even if that happened.
I think you're right. I amended my post. But maybe not even then.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:54 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Lying about having sex is not on the same level as using your office as POTUS to basically extort a foreign government into getting dirt on your political rival.

Stealing a cookie from the neighbor's cookie jar is theft. Forcing a teller to hand over $200K from the bank while pointing a gun at him is theft. Not on the same level.
Sorry, I wasn't very clear, but I'm not predicting they will acquit; I'm predicting that this Senate will also be more concerned about their own future rather than Trump's. If the majority of the voters think they are hiding a dangerously unscrupulous president out of party loyalty, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of not removing him.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:59 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it.
I don't think they would convict even then.
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Old 26th September 2019, 04:59 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Sorry, I wasn't very clear, but I'm not predicting they will acquit; I'm predicting that this Senate will also be more concerned about their own future rather than Trump's. If the majority of the voters think they are hiding a dangerously unscrupulous president out of party loyalty, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of not removing him.
I think a majority of the voters already think that; it's whether a majority of Trump supporters think that.
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Old 26th September 2019, 05:00 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Sorry, I wasn't very clear, but I'm not predicting they will acquit; I'm predicting that this Senate will also be more concerned about their own future rather than Trump's. If the majority of the voters think they are hiding a dangerously unscrupulous president out of party loyalty, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of not removing him.
They are so damn afraid of being "Primaried" if they go against Trump they will do nothing.
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Old 26th September 2019, 05:07 PM   #291
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Public opinion is inching towards favoring impeachment
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/76472...chment-inquiry
These numbers could change quickly as this saga continues
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:20 PM   #292
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
The thing is that just saying "The Senate won't convict, so we can do nothing," is a bad option as that allows Trump to claim he did nothing wrong because he wasn't Impeached. He'll be like, "The Democrats tried to get me in multiple witch-hunts and they couldn't because I was innocent."

Surely, if you accept that his behaviour is impeachable, then the better course of action is to Impeach and make the case to the American people that he should be found guilty, and show that beyond doubt, and then should the Republicans exonerate the President against the weight of that evidence, you can go to the electorate and say, we did our job, you all know he is guilty, we need to get rid of the corruption in the senate too.
The question is what is the best strategy for getting him out of office. Earlier this year Pelosi had the right idea saying that impeachment would be counterproductive, This time I think she jumped the gun, probably thinking that the audio recordings would contain more than they did.
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:26 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
The question is what is the best strategy for getting him out of office. Earlier this year Pelosi had the right idea saying that impeachment would be counterproductive, This time I think she jumped the gun, probably thinking that the audio recordings would contain more than they did.
Pelosi may know more than has been made public, too.
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:40 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
The question is what is the best strategy for getting him out of office. Earlier this year Pelosi had the right idea saying that impeachment would be counterproductive, This time I think she jumped the gun, probably thinking that the audio recordings would contain more than they did.
and this is why it is hard to take you seriously.
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:54 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Pelosi may know more than has been made public, too.
Never underestimate a woman who can quote Julius Caesar in the original Latin.
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:57 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Time will tell. I hope you are right.
It's already happening. One by one Republican legislators are defecting.
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Old 26th September 2019, 06:59 PM   #297
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
So far, there is no smoking gun, making this more of a Clinton type event than a Nixon type event. If the Dems vote for impeachment in the house, they are really just shooting themselves in the foot, probably insuring Trumps reelection. Unless of course something more substantial comes to light, something that would peruade the Republicans to turn on him.
What universe are you in? The dam burst.
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Old 26th September 2019, 07:00 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
Public opinion is inching towards favoring impeachment
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/76472...chment-inquiry
These numbers could change quickly as this saga continues
Horrible poll. I suppose there's a rush to get out the first poll but the sampling is so tiny that the MoE is huge.
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Old 26th September 2019, 07:00 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it.
People really need to start adding the caveat 'at the moment' to these pessimistic predictions.
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Old 26th September 2019, 08:04 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
It's recently been claimed that 30 Republican Senators would vote to impeach
Jeff Flake says 35.

Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
It's all about loyalty to the party. Or at least the appearance of loyalty.
There are a couple of other things it's about now too. Trump's been making enemies of the other Republicans, and they have an incentive to get rid of him not just because of the animosity between them but also to free themselves from him; getting rid of him gets rid of the biggest threat to them, and the sooner he's gone the sooner they can get back to carrying on as they did before him. Also, legislators tend to do what their big money donors want them to do, and the big money donors aren't getting any happier with Trump either.

And remember, even those who would want him to stay in place are perfectly aware of the physical & mental condition he's in and the rate at which it's declining. He and they will be looking for a way out for him.
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Old 26th September 2019, 08:17 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
People really need to start adding the caveat 'at the moment' to these pessimistic predictions.
I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise if past history is any indicator.
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Old 26th September 2019, 08:59 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
If you don't consider notes showing and Trump himself even admitting that he asked a foreign leader to start an investigation into a political opponent, a smoking gun, what do you need?
He's done that before though, openly, and his supporters don't seem to mind.

I refer to "Russia, if you're listening, please find Hillary Clinton's missing emails."

This is "Ukraine, please find dirt on Joe Biden and his son."

The question here seems to be not whether he did it. He did. It's whether people think it's an impeachable offense or something they can condone.
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Old 26th September 2019, 10:53 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
Public opinion is inching towards favoring impeachment
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/76472...chment-inquiry
These numbers could change quickly as this saga continues
I wonder how many of those who are against impeachment oppose it because they're deathly afraid Trump will survive and use that to win another term. No sitting president has ever been succesfully impeached and the last time it was tried it backfired on the party pushing for impeachment.

I posit the number is nonzero and may be sufficiently large to be relevant.

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Old 26th September 2019, 11:21 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I wonder how many of those who are against impeachment oppose it because they're deathly afraid Trump will survive and use that to win another term. No sitting president has ever been succesfully impeached and the last time it was tried it backfired on the party pushing for impeachment.

I posit the number is nonzero and may be sufficiently large to be relevant.

McHrozni
Well, we're still hearing that from pro-Dem pundits, so it's definitely greater than zero. The article actually mentions that this is early days. Most people polled hadn't had a chance to read the whistleblower's report - the poll was taken Wednesday night.

I think you'll see shifting in those numbers. The first thing to watch for is Trump's fervid support poll at Rasmussen. He went from Approve +6 to Approve +5 on the first day this was starting to break. The next day he's dropped to "Tie".

Of course, approval polls aren't everything, but they could give an indication that he's devotees aren't going to have quite so willing a bunch of stooges in the hustings.
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Old 26th September 2019, 11:29 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure it's that simple. There is another kind of math you're not considering and that is election polling. These guys are going to do what keeps their own political careers alive. And they will turn on Trump in an instant if they believe it is the most politically smart thing to do.
This. Even if they personally like Trump, and they think he is the greatest president there ever will be, if they consider him a liability in their reelection or election they will turn on him in a heartbeat.

Problem of course is that Trump is not such a liability.
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Old 27th September 2019, 12:23 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure it's that simple. There is another kind of math you're not considering and that is election polling. These guys are going to do what keeps their own political careers alive. And they will turn on Trump in an instant if they believe it is the most politically smart thing to do.
That's true, however Trumpistanis will support the Dear LeaderTM to their graves and beyond. GOP has no stronger base of support and no way to replace those votes with anything. If they made the switch today no one would believe them come next November - it's too soon. Yet Trumpistanis would reject them in an instant.

Therefore I expect them to stick by Trump for at least another year.

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Old 27th September 2019, 12:36 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
It's a value judgement really. By now we have all heard the conversation, my opinion is that it won't be enough to convince Republicans to vote to convict Trump in the Senate. Therefor we have a Clinton type event, the House impeaches but the Senate does not convict. Trump claims exoneration and uses it to forward the narrative that he is being persecuted, leveraging this into a win over Biden or Warren. I'm not saying this necessarily will happen, but I see it as a definite possibility.
Why all this talk about the Senate? The house hasn't voted to impeach yet and from all appearances, it won't for some time. This is mostly about keeping Trump's impeachable offences in the front pages until well into the 2020 election in the hopes of draining votes away from Trump.

Once it gets into the Senate, it will become a Republican controlled agenda - unless the Dems manage to regain control at the next election. All the more reason to delay an actual impeachment vote until after the elections.
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Old 27th September 2019, 12:52 AM   #308
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Democrats could delay Impeachment ... but only if there was some judicial mechanism in place safeguard the 2020 elections from Trump.
I don't see that as a possibility.
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Old 27th September 2019, 03:09 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I have to agree with you; the Senate will not convict. They wouldn't convict Trump of anything short of him admitting he sold the nuclear codes to Russia along with video and with at least 30 GOP senators seeing him do it AND having the entire event played live on FOX News.
Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I disagree, they wouldn't convict even if that happened.
I think you're right. I amended my post. But maybe not even then.

Having it broadcast on Faux News would only convince his supporters it must be legitimate and okay.

After all, they wouldn't broadcast it if it wasn't.

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Old 27th September 2019, 03:23 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Democrats could delay Impeachment ... but only if there was some judicial mechanism in place safeguard the 2020 elections from Trump.
I don't see that as a possibility.
I don't understand what you mean. Even if the house impeaches, it won't disqualify Trump from running again. Only a Senate trial can do that.

The obvious intent is that the constant publicity should cause Trump to lose the next election.
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Old 27th September 2019, 03:35 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't understand what you mean. Even if the house impeaches, it won't disqualify Trump from running again. Only a Senate trial can do that.

The obvious intent is that the constant publicity should cause Trump to lose the next election.
The Ukraine deal is about election meddling - if you let this stand even if just until after the elections, Trump will do more of the kind.
If he gets impeached because of it, there will be a lot fewer collaborators willing to help him do more of the same.
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Old 27th September 2019, 03:40 AM   #312
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If it were all going to happen now, and probably in the next few weeks at least, I believe the result would be Trump out of office. The only question is whether Pelosi can succeed in her quest to protect him by delaying & bogging it down long enough for the current mood to fade into "if it were important they'd just do it so this must all just be for show".

Last edited by Delvo; 27th September 2019 at 04:22 AM.
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Old 27th September 2019, 04:16 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Saw this by Frank Bruni in the New York Times, and I kind of agree:

Why a Trump Impeachment Should Terrify You
I'm not sure standing by while the man destroys the presidency and damages US democratic institutions is going to be a winner in the elections, either.
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Old 27th September 2019, 04:17 AM   #314
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For a person who supposedly been "double dog daring" the Dems to impeach him, Trump is apparently pissing his pants behind the scenes. He desperately tried to cut a deal with Pelosi the other day. The unstable ignoramus thought that releasing the pseudo-transcript would put everything to rest. link
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Old 27th September 2019, 04:21 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So many people are so quick to jump ahead using the GOP narrative today as if nothing could possibly change.

History of the Nixon impeachment demonstrates these things are not static.

You watch, that Trump narrative is getting stale. Maybe all it needs is someone standing up and pointing out the Emperor has no clothes.
Maybe but I have the impression that partisanship is a bigger issue now than then.
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Old 27th September 2019, 04:32 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
The question is what is the best strategy for getting him out of office. Earlier this year Pelosi had the right idea saying that impeachment would be counterproductive, This time I think she jumped the gun, probably thinking that the audio recordings would contain more than they did.
What are you chattering about?
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Old 27th September 2019, 05:25 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The Ukraine deal is about election meddling - if you let this stand even if just until after the elections, Trump will do more of the kind.
If he gets impeached because of it, there will be a lot fewer collaborators willing to help him do more of the same.
Why would Trump fear what the House will do? He knows that the Senate won't go along with it.
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Old 27th September 2019, 05:29 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why would Trump fear what the House will do? He knows that the Senate won't go along with it.
Does he?
Trump is paranoid, after all. And Republicans will have to decide what will do more damage:.to themselves: being primaried or losing the election. Trump can't campaign against all defectors at the same time.
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Old 27th September 2019, 05:29 AM   #319
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why would Trump fear what the House will do? He knows that the Senate won't go along with it.
It's not in the interest of criminals and grifters to be placed under the microscope.
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Old 27th September 2019, 05:30 AM   #320
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Yeah I also remember Trump being "scared" and "paranoid" during parts of the Mueller investigation and the Russian probe, he got over it.
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