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Tags donald trump , Elijah Cummings , racism charges , racism issues

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Old 30th July 2019, 09:29 PM   #1
tanabear
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Trump vs Elijah: Baltimore, BLM and urban decay

The city of Baltimore is back in the news again due to the tweet storm between President Trump and Representative Elijah Cummings. Let's focus on this specific debate and discuss the conditions of our large urban centers and what has happened to them.

The Black Lives Matter movement became prominent in 2014 over the deaths of Michael Brown in Ferguson and Eric Garner in New York City. It became a very powerful movement during the last few years of the Obama administration. Let's assess the results in a few cities.

1) Baltimore: The murder rate exploded in 2015, the year of Freddie Gray and the riots.

Year | Murders | Rate
2013 233 37.4
2014 211 33.8
2015 344 55.4
2016 318 51.4
2017 343 57.8
2018 309 50.5

The Baltimore riots occurred on April 27, 2015 and there is a sharp increase in homicides right after this point.

2) St Louis: The murder rate exploded in 2014, the year of Michael Brown in Ferguson.

Year | Murders
2013 120
2014 159
2015 188
2016 188
2017 205

3) Chicago: The murder rate exploded in 2016, the year after Laquan McDonald and the ACLU victories over the CPD.

Year | Murders
2013 421
2014 416
2015 485
2016 764
2017 650
2018 555

Note: The murder rate in Chicago jumped 57 percent in one year, 2016!

In 2015, the U.S. experienced the largest single year increase in its homicide rate since 1990, according to the most recently available data from the FBI.3 In that year, cities like Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Washington, D.C. saw their homicide rates grow at least as fast as Chicago’s did in 2016.
University of Chicago Crime Lab

The total number of homicides nationally in 2016 was 20% higher than in 2014. This increase was primarily concentrated in a few urban areas. So there was an additional 4,450 murders over the base year of 2014. This is more than the number of Americans killed on 9/11 and roughly the same as the number of Americans killed in Iraq.

This sudden and sharp increase in the murder rate has been dubbed the Ferguson effect, the Black Lives Matter effect or simply Late Obama Age collapse. It is a striking indication of what happens when the Left takes over and subverts law enforcement.

But who was held accountable for this disaster? No one as far as I can tell. The Left will call you a "racist" for simply pointing this out. Trump deserves credit for not bowing to the outrage mob.

The wages of Liberalism is death.
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Old 30th July 2019, 09:38 PM   #2
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Any particular reason why you use the President's last, but the Representative's first name in the title?
I assume you are on first-name terms?
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Old 30th July 2019, 10:12 PM   #3
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Thanks, Obama.
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Old 30th July 2019, 10:20 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
This sudden and sharp increase in the murder rate has been dubbed the Ferguson effect, the Black Lives Matter effect or simply Late Obama Age collapse
You forgot "by Nazis and other white nationalists" at the end of that sentence.
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Old 31st July 2019, 12:33 AM   #5
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In our town in Australia, the murder rate jumped by 100% in three years! In 2016, one person was killed. In 2018, two people were killed.

IT'S A (statistical) EPIDEMIC!
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:14 AM   #6
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada Yada.

The wages of Liberalism is death.
Our rightmost mainstream party is way left of your leftmost party....liberalism hasn't done us any harm over here.....in 2017 we had 35 murders in a country of five million people. But then we don't have a population made up of 35% redneck racists with a Racist in Chief as their Dear Leader

NOTE: Our 2019 jump in the murder rate was caused by a single ultra-right wing racist who imported himself from another country to kill people!
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:25 AM   #7
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Well, we’ll have to discuss not only want local issues, but issues of national policy as well

I do not think you want this.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:40 AM   #8
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The only way liberalism causes danger to the populace is when aggressive, angry right wingers do the killing.
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Old 31st July 2019, 02:20 AM   #9
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For as long as I've been seeing right-wing propaganda, a recurring theme is that all our social problems are really caused by liberals, and the only solution offered is to vote against liberals so we can go back to ignoring social problems.
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Old 31st July 2019, 02:26 AM   #10
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https://twitter.com/hila_tweets/stat...80415566618624

Quote:
Rep. Cummings was targeted for a reason. The Oversight committee report is DEVESTATING: direct evidence that Trump & associates sold US foreign policy to UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia to enrich themselves.

#ReadTheCummingsReport

https://oversight.house.gov/news/pre...nce-us-nuclear
Document embedded in tweet.

https://twitter.com/hila_tweets/stat...81670930223106

Quote:
Oh, and did I mention that Kushner just flew off to the Middle East to meet with MBS so they can make sure “everyone’s on the same page”? Ffs.
https://twitter.com/hila_tweets/stat...49531249938432

Quote:
(Screenshots thanks to @ninaandtito)
Excerpts embedded in tweet.
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Old 31st July 2019, 03:05 AM   #11
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I'm really interested in hearing from the right-wing Trump apologists on this forum as to whether they think its a good idea to give nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, when

1. Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi Arabian

2. The leader of Saudi Arabia instigated and then sanctioned the brutal murder of a US journalist.

3. Freedom House, a US based, US government-funded advocate for free speech and human rights, consistently ranks Saudi Arabia as the "worst of the worst", below North Korea, in their annual survey of political and civil rights.

Bolton call's Iran a bad actor in the region, but the Saudis are far, far worse.
Seriously? Trump wants to give these scumbags nuclear technology that could easily be weaponised?
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Old 31st July 2019, 04:31 AM   #12
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If trump wasn't a little bit racist, but just a little bit hostile and prejudiced towards poor people, he'd be tweeting about worthless white people too. I'm talking about the kind of trailer trash and poor redneck scum that live in the middle of nowhere with no jobs and complain all day of how horrible life is, in between shooting up heroin and getting drunk.

Should they stop holding America back and contribute to "making it great again"?
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Old 31st July 2019, 04:43 AM   #13
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Correlation is not causation. You don't even have a lot of data points to say something is correlated. You also dont say what has happened to all the other cities.

Utah had a record high for murder in 2016. They had a 20% jump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.des...et-in-2016.amp
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Old 31st July 2019, 04:50 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
The wages of Liberalism is death.
Someone should've told John Locke that.
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Old 31st July 2019, 04:51 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The only way liberalism causes danger to the populace is when aggressive, angry right wingers do the killing.
Also known as the "look at what you made me do" excuse.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:13 AM   #16
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I googled "Late Obama Age collapse".

I want everyone to brace themselves because this may come as a shock: It's from the title of a book written by a white supremacist.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:24 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
I googled "Late Obama Age collapse".

I want everyone to brace themselves because this may come as a shock: It's from the title of a book written by a white supremacist.
Conservative "thinkers" seem to be mainly white supremacists nowadays. Well, "conservative" should probably be in scare-quotes as well. Reactionary is the proper word. For this guy and for the whole GOP. I don't find it particularly strange that the OP gets his information from white supremacist sources.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:32 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
You forgot "by Nazis and other white nationalists" at the end of that sentence.
Seriously? You think the bulk of the killings in Baltimore, St. Louis, and Chicago are committed by "Nazis and other white nationalists"?

ETA: Never mind. I read the wrong, as explained down thread.

Last edited by Ron Obvious; 31st July 2019 at 05:50 AM.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:37 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Ron Obvious View Post
Seriously? You think the bulk of the killings in Baltimore, St. Louis, and Chicago are committed by "Nazis and other white nationalists"?
I think you need to re-read it.....

Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post

Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
This sudden and sharp increase in the murder rate has been dubbed the Ferguson effect, the Black Lives Matter effect or simply Late Obama Age collapse.
You forgot "by Nazis and other white nationalists" at the end of that sentence.
Checkmite is suggesting that the dubbing, not the murdering, is being done by white nationalists.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:38 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Ron Obvious View Post
Seriously? You think the bulk of the killings in Baltimore, St. Louis, and Chicago are committed by "Nazis and other white nationalists"?
Grammatically, the addition would modified "has been dubbed" not the source of the murders. This is also what was undoubtedly intended, that only white nationalists call the increase "The Late Obama Age Collapse" and the other things.

Now, my beef with the term "The Late Obama Age Collapse" isn't just about where the blame lies. It's an abuse of the term "age". Since when is eight years an age, dammit? (Yes, yes, eight years is an age of third graders, but you know what I mean.)
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:41 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think you need to re-read it.....



Checkmite is suggesting that the dubbing, not the murdering, is being done by white nationalists.
OK, fair enough. It's early. My apologies since I'm sure you're right.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:42 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
It is a striking indication of what happens when the Left takes over and subverts law enforcement.
Subverts. What the heck are you talking about?

Quote:
But who was held accountable for this disaster? No one as far as I can tell.
Well, I blame the right for not holding someone accountable. Wait. Who should be held accountable for an increase in murders (I mean other than the murderers themselves). When answering, please follow the standards required in a court of law.

Quote:
The Left will call you a "racist" for simply pointing this out.
No, no, no. We don’t call people racist for pointing it out. Pointing it out is a simple accounting of statistics.

We call people racist for labeling it the “Black Lives Matter effect.”

We do that because Post hoc ergo propter hoc or as BobTheCoward already pointed out correlation is not causation.


Quote:
Trump deserves credit for not bowing to the outrage mob.
Full points on this exercise The Trump Playbook involves accusing your opponent of doing what you did while simultaneously denying that you did what you did (this is sometimes called The-White-Liberals-are-the-Real-Racists effect (this is the same playbook that requires that opponents be addressed by their first name - Speaker Pelosi is called Nancy by President Trump, but if she ever called him anything other than Mr. President, then all hell would break loose)).

President Trump gets folks at his rally to chant “send them back” and those folks are not called the outrage mob, instead the left is the outrage mob because rhey are dissatisfied with unarmed black men being killed at a much higher rate than unarmed white men (when put into a per capital basis).

Quote:
The wages of Liberalism is death.
Sweden and Canada are dead?

The other problem with your aphorism is that wages implies that work was performed and we all know that liberals don’t perform labor.
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:47 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
No, no, no. We don’t call people racist for pointing it out. Pointing it out is a simple accounting of statistics.

We call people racist for labeling it the “Black Lives Matter effect.”

We do that because Post hoc ergo propter hoc or as BobTheCoward already pointed out correlation is not causation.
If there were a strong correlation showing that after the Black Lives Matters movement, there were fewer arrests and less aggressive investigation of crimes, it wouldn't be racist to point that out. It wouldn't directly mean that the movement was to blame (it could be explained by police overreaction to criticism rather than the aims of the movement), of course.

But, of course, Tanabear did engage in nothing more than post hoc. A movement to decrease police shootings of unarmed men happened and murders increased. It's awfully hard to conclude that the former influenced, much less caused, the latter. How are the two connected?
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Old 31st July 2019, 05:50 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
If there were a strong correlation showing that after the Black Lives Matters movement, there were fewer arrests and less aggressive investigation of crimes, it wouldn't be racist to point that out. It wouldn't directly mean that the movement was to blame (it could be explained by police overreaction to criticism rather than the aims of the movement), of course.

But, of course, Tanabear did engage in nothing more than post hoc. A movement to decrease police shootings of unarmed men happened and murders increased. It's awfully hard to conclude that the former influenced, much less caused, the latter. How are the two connected?
Black people.
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Old 31st July 2019, 06:32 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
The city of Baltimore is back in the news again due to the tweet storm between President Trump and Representative Elijah Cummings. Let's focus on this specific debate and discuss the conditions of our large urban centers and what has happened to them.

The Black Lives Matter movement became prominent in 2014 over the deaths of Michael Brown in Ferguson and Eric Garner in New York City. It became a very powerful movement during the last few years of the Obama administration. Let's assess the results in a few cities.

1) Baltimore: The murder rate exploded in 2015, the year of Freddie Gray and the riots.

Year | Murders | Rate
2013 233 37.4
2014 211 33.8
2015 344 55.4
2016 318 51.4
2017 343 57.8
2018 309 50.5

The Baltimore riots occurred on April 27, 2015 and there is a sharp increase in homicides right after this point.

2) St Louis: The murder rate exploded in 2014, the year of Michael Brown in Ferguson.

Year | Murders
2013 120
2014 159
2015 188
2016 188
2017 205

3) Chicago: The murder rate exploded in 2016, the year after Laquan McDonald and the ACLU victories over the CPD.

Year | Murders
2013 421
2014 416
2015 485
2016 764
2017 650
2018 555

Note: The murder rate in Chicago jumped 57 percent in one year, 2016!

In 2015, the U.S. experienced the largest single year increase in its homicide rate since 1990, according to the most recently available data from the FBI.3 In that year, cities like Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Washington, D.C. saw their homicide rates grow at least as fast as Chicago’s did in 2016.
University of Chicago Crime Lab

The total number of homicides nationally in 2016 was 20% higher than in 2014. This increase was primarily concentrated in a few urban areas. So there was an additional 4,450 murders over the base year of 2014. This is more than the number of Americans killed on 9/11 and roughly the same as the number of Americans killed in Iraq.

This sudden and sharp increase in the murder rate has been dubbed the Ferguson effect, the Black Lives Matter effect or simply Late Obama Age collapse. It is a striking indication of what happens when the Left takes over and subverts law enforcement.

But who was held accountable for this disaster? No one as far as I can tell. The Left will call you a "racist" for simply pointing this out. Trump deserves credit for not bowing to the outrage mob.

The wages of Liberalism is death.
Pretty good effort but could you throw in some fake ebonics? I love it when cauc breeders do that; it's just so damned funny!

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...6#post12770536
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Old 31st July 2019, 06:34 AM   #26
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I remember a couple of years ago I read a comparison of Baltimore with Muskogee, OK. You know, the right wing town where that country singer was proud to be from?

Three guesses as to which came out looking worse....
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Old 31st July 2019, 06:46 AM   #27
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US homicide rate 2017: 5.3.
Canada homicide rate 2017: 1.8.

This leads me to conclude that the US is almost 3 times as liberal as Canada.
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Old 31st July 2019, 07:06 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
US homicide rate 2017: 5.3.
Canada homicide rate 2017: 1.8.

This leads me to conclude that the US is almost 3 times as liberal as Canada.


Well that's just good math.
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Old 31st July 2019, 07:08 AM   #29
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Right wingers have loved to throw urban crime statistics up as a smoke screen and have done so for decades. Since there aren't many Republican mayors of big cities, and even those that are Republican are not ultra-conservative, they can blame liberals for all the ills of urban life. It also has the benefit of allowing racial dog-whistling, if not open racism, because of large non-white populations, especially in cities with intensely impoverished, high-crime minority neighborhoods.

This same tactic used to include NYC, which was once the poster child of urban decay and a high-crime hellscape ruined by the libs and black people, but now its crime rates have fallen and it is a bustling hub and highly desirable place to live, despite being still run by libs and full of minorities.

Conservatives aren't interested in actually understanding the complex problems of endemic poverty and crime in large cities, because they know they will never be in positions of power in such cities. Right-wing conservative ideology is so politically toxic in these cities that no ultra-conservative Republican will ever be elected, so they are content to snipe in bad faith. No credit is given to liberal run, diverse big cities that are doing well.
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Old 31st July 2019, 07:14 AM   #30
ponderingturtle
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Right wingers have loved to throw urban crime statistics up as a smoke screen and have done so for decades. Since there aren't many Republican mayors of big cities, and even those that are Republican are not ultra-conservative, they can blame liberals for all the ills of urban life. It also has the benefit of allowing racial dog-whistling, if not open racism, because of large non-white populations, especially in cities with intensely impoverished, high-crime minority neighborhoods.

This same tactic used to include NYC, which was once the poster child of urban decay and a high-crime hellscape ruined by the libs and black people, but now its crime rates have fallen and it is a bustling hub and highly desirable place to live, despite being still run by libs and full of minorities.

Conservatives aren't interested in actually understanding the complex problems of endemic poverty and crime in large cities, because they know they will never be in positions of power in such cities. Right-wing conservative ideology is so politically toxic in these cities that no ultra-conservative Republican will ever be elected, so they are content to snipe in bad faith. No credit is given to liberal run, diverse big cities that are doing well.
To be fair they don't care about endemic crime and poverty in rural america they just pretend it doesn't exist. I mean Rural areas are more violent than the national average as well.

https://thecrimereport.org/2018/05/1...e-u-s-average/

But railing against the murder rate in rural west virginia fails to properly racially dog whistle for people so we ignore it.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:15 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Right wingers have loved to throw urban crime statistics up as a smoke screen and have done so for decades. Since there aren't many Republican mayors of big cities, and even those that are Republican are not ultra-conservative, they can blame liberals for all the ills of urban life. It also has the benefit of allowing racial dog-whistling, if not open racism, because of large non-white populations, especially in cities with intensely impoverished, high-crime minority neighborhoods.

This same tactic used to include NYC, which was once the poster child of urban decay and a high-crime hellscape ruined by the libs and black people, but now its crime rates have fallen and it is a bustling hub and highly desirable place to live, despite being still run by libs and full of minorities.

Conservatives aren't interested in actually understanding the complex problems of endemic poverty and crime in large cities, because they know they will never be in positions of power in such cities. Right-wing conservative ideology is so politically toxic in these cities that no ultra-conservative Republican will ever be elected, so they are content to snipe in bad faith. No credit is given to liberal run, diverse big cities that are doing well.
Why do white supremacists even care about blacks killing blacks? You'd be forgiven for thinking that they would consider that to be a job being done for them, but there is only one reason I can think of that they would bring it up, and that's because murder statistics make good reading for them, and they can use those statistics to their advantage.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:17 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Why do white supremacists even care about blacks killing blacks? You'd be forgiven for thinking that they would consider that to be a job being done for them, but there is only one reason I can think of that they would bring it up, and that's because murder statistics make good reading for them, and they can use those statistics to their advantage.
Shows they are just violent beasts. Fits nicely with white supremacist or republican presidential narratives.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:19 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I'm really interested in hearing from the right-wing Trump apologists on this forum as to whether they think its a good idea to give nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, when

1. Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi Arabian

2. The leader of Saudi Arabia instigated and then sanctioned the brutal murder of a US journalist.

3. Freedom House, a US based, US government-funded advocate for free speech and human rights, consistently ranks Saudi Arabia as the "worst of the worst", below North Korea, in their annual survey of political and civil rights.

Bolton call's Iran a bad actor in the region, but the Saudis are far, far worse.
Seriously? Trump wants to give these scumbags nuclear technology that could easily be weaponised?
I'm not a trump supporter, but I'm not one of these insane tribalists here either or someone suffering from trump derangement syndrome...

But no....it is an exceedingly bad idea to give nuclear weapons to anyone.

Its an even worse idea to give it to a theocracy
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:23 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Right wingers have loved to throw urban crime statistics up as a smoke screen and have done so for decades. Since there aren't many Republican mayors of big cities, and even those that are Republican are not ultra-conservative, they can blame liberals for all the ills of urban life. It also has the benefit of allowing racial dog-whistling, if not open racism, because of large non-white populations, especially in cities with intensely impoverished, high-crime minority neighborhoods.

This same tactic used to include NYC, which was once the poster child of urban decay and a high-crime hellscape ruined by the libs and black people, but now its crime rates have fallen and it is a bustling hub and highly desirable place to live, despite being still run by libs and full of minorities.

Conservatives aren't interested in actually understanding the complex problems of endemic poverty and crime in large cities, because they know they will never be in positions of power in such cities. Right-wing conservative ideology is so politically toxic in these cities that no ultra-conservative Republican will ever be elected, so they are content to snipe in bad faith. No credit is given to liberal run, diverse big cities that are doing well.
Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
To be fair they don't care about endemic crime and poverty in rural america they just pretend it doesn't exist. I mean Rural areas are more violent than the national average as well.

https://thecrimereport.org/2018/05/1...e-u-s-average/

But railing against the murder rate in rural west virginia fails to properly racially dog whistle for people so we ignore it.

I'm curious to know what a right wing utopia looks like and what - if any - major American cities embody it.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:25 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by tanabear View Post
It is a striking indication of what happens when the Left takes over and subverts law enforcement.
WTF! Who takes over and subverts Law Enforcement?
  1. Obstructing a criminal investigation subverts Law Enforcement
  2. Stacking the Federal Courts with partisan political appointees subverts Law Enforcement
  3. Defying lawfully issued suppoenas subverts Law Enforcement
  4. Defying the actual Law subverts Law Enforcement

There is only one person doing all of the subversion of Law Enforcement, and he ain't a Liberal.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:26 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
I'm curious to know what a right wing utopia looks like and what - if any - major American cities embody it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogpatch_USA
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:28 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
I'm curious to know what a right wing utopia looks like and what - if any - major American cities embody it.

It would end up something like Rapture in the BIoshock games...
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:41 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
WTF! Who takes over and subverts Law Enforcement?
  1. Obstructing a criminal investigation subverts Law Enforcement
  2. Stacking the Federal Courts with partisan political appointees subverts Law Enforcement
  3. Defying lawfully issued suppoenas subverts Law Enforcement
  4. Defying the actual Law subverts Law Enforcement

There is only one person doing all of the subversion of Law Enforcement, and he ain't a Liberal.
The most shocking crime rate increase of the last two years has to be the one in the White House.
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Old 31st July 2019, 01:51 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
I'm curious to know what a right wing utopia looks like and what - if any - major American cities embody it.
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Old 31st July 2019, 02:38 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
US homicide rate 2017: 5.3.
Canada homicide rate 2017: 1.8.

This leads me to conclude that the US is almost 3 times as liberal as Canada.
The US is 3 times as black (per capita) as Canada.
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