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Tags 2019 elections , donald trump , Kentucky elections , Kentucky politics , Matt Bevin , Mississippi elections , Virginia elections

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Old 5th November 2019, 08:20 PM   #1
Puppycow
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Election Day 2019 Thread

I looked but didn't see a thread on this already. One year left till the big one!

There's not a whole lot of elections happening this year because it's an odd year, but there are a few:

In Kentucky, Governor Matt Bevin appears to have been ousted.

In Virginia, Democrats appear to be poised to take over both the State Senate and the State Assembly, which would give them control of redistricting next year, I think (not 100% sure about that, but 2020 is a census year).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...elections.html
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Old 5th November 2019, 09:01 PM   #2
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Regarding Kentucky, 100% of precincts have reported and the Democrat has a lead of 4,658 votes, but Bevin hasn't conceded.

GOP's Bevin refuses to concede as Kentucky gubernatorial race goes down to the wire
Quote:
Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin refused to concede late Tuesday in Kentucky's gubernatorial race, citing "irregularities" -- potentially kickstarting weeks of uncertainty as the closely-watched contest with national implications remains too close to call.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Bevin was behind Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear, 49.2 percent (711,955 votes) to 48.9 percent (707,297 votes). Libertarian candidate John Hicks received 28,475 votes, or 2.0 percent.

The Associated Press said it could not declare a winner, owing to the tight margin. Although Bevin has not outlined his next steps, Kentucky law provides for three levels of post-election procedures: a recanvass, a recount, and an election contest.
Even still, it appears likely that Bevin will be gone once he exhausts all his legal options. (The requirements for each are explained in the article above. The latter 2 options would require a judge's approval.)

Notably, Trump held a political rally in Kentucky on Monday to support Bevin's reelection bid:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...rial-elections

Quote:
The Kentucky governor – one of the most unpopular in the nation -- talks about Trump often on the campaign trail and prominently features the president in his TV commercials. And he’s repeatedly defended Trump against the House impeachment inquiry.

“Bevin wants to be bailed out by President Trump, who won the state by a mile in 2016, and it seems like he is bringing up impeachment about every chance he can get,” highlighted Fox News’ anchor and chief national correspondent Ed Henry.

“The point is this race may give us our first real test of whether using impeachment as a weapon is actually more fruitful for Republicans than Democrats, in terms of rallying the conservative base,” Henry explained. “And given Bevin’s troubles back home, it will be a real barometer of whether the president still has coattails in MAGA country, just as we saw him pull a Republican across the finish line in that special House election in North Carolina.”
Still a year to go, and who knows what the political mood of the country will be a year from now, but right now it looks like the political winds are blowing the Democrats' way.
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Old 5th November 2019, 09:08 PM   #3
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USA Today story on Virginia:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ia/4155155002/

Quote:
WASHINGTON — Virginia Democrats retook the statehouse for the first time in a generation Tuesday, bathing the once purple sate in a deep blue political hue.

The victory not only means the Democrats will control all the levers of power in Richmond to push through a progressive agenda on gun control and health care, but also gives the party the ability to redraw congressional and state legislative district lines based on the 2020 census.

The victory also provides momentum to the party heading into the 2020 election.

Most of the major Democratic presidential candidates traveled to Virginia to keep the momentum going. Republicans, however, sent Vice President Mike Pence – and not President Donald Trump – across the Potomac for a pre-election push.
As I mentioned earlier: Next year's election will be particularly important as the census, and redistricting that follows, comes only once per decade. Winning state legislatures is the key to winning overall, because the party that wins can then stack the deck in its own favor for the rest of the decade via gerrymandering.
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Old 5th November 2019, 09:29 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I looked but didn't see a thread on this already. One year left till the big one!

There's not a whole lot of elections happening this year because it's an odd year, but there are a few:

In Kentucky, Governor Matt Bevin appears to have been ousted.

In Virginia, Democrats appear to be poised to take over both the State Senate and the State Assembly, which would give them control of redistricting next year, I think (not 100% sure about that, but 2020 is a census year).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...elections.html
Virginia has gone blue. The Democrats have seized both legislative chambers. Combined with their Democratic Governor they should be able to control the agenda there.
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Old 5th November 2019, 09:32 PM   #5
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I like the bellweather these elections are setting.
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Old 5th November 2019, 10:21 PM   #6
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Trump will win against anybody but Tulsi Gabbard if the financial cartel doesn't decide to pull the trigger.
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Old 5th November 2019, 10:44 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Trump will win against anybody but Tulsi Gabbard if the financial cartel doesn't decide to pull the trigger.
And people are beating on Hillary for her comments....
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Old 5th November 2019, 11:02 PM   #8
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I do so hope these wins aren't overturned after the final counts.
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Old 5th November 2019, 11:24 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
I like the bellweather these elections are setting.
I wonder who the scapegoats will be. As, no doubt, do a lot of goats. Which may seem a trivial concern, but Kentucky has more goats per head of population than any other state, so that's a lot of worried goats. (I made the last bit up, but that's the zeitgeist, and who am I to go against the zeitgeist?)
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Old 6th November 2019, 02:23 AM   #10
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It should be noted that the Republicans did win the Mississippi Governorship, but it was the closet race in 16 years and went to the wire.
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Old 6th November 2019, 05:41 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Trump will win against anybody but Tulsi Gabbard if the financial cartel doesn't decide to pull the trigger.
Looks to me like he'd lose against anybody, maybe including her. But thanks for the kibitz, Vlad.
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Old 6th November 2019, 05:48 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Looks to me like

Of course it does. Just like last time.
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Old 6th November 2019, 07:11 AM   #13
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Looks like the GOP is gonna try and steal the KY election

https://theweek.com/speedreads/87668...-next-governor
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Old 6th November 2019, 07:32 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
Looks like the GOP is gonna try and steal the KY election

https://theweek.com/speedreads/87668...-next-governor
I don't think they'd dare, but we'll see. What he actually said was pretty vague, and I'm not cynical enough yet to assume the worst.

Quote:
“There’s less than one-half of 1%, as I understand, separating the governor and the attorney general,” Stivers said. “We will follow the letter of the law and what various processes determine.”

Stivers, R-Manchester, said based on his staff’s research, the decision could come before the Republican-controlled state legislature.

Under state law, Bevin has 30 days to formally contest the outcome once it is certified by the State Board of Elections. Candidates typically ask for a re-canvass of voting machines and a recount first.
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Old 6th November 2019, 08:00 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't think they'd dare, but we'll see. What he actually said was pretty vague, and I'm not cynical enough yet to assume the worst.
They should just cut their losses and have the Voting Machine Company refund them for insufficient vote manipulation.
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Old 6th November 2019, 09:58 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Trump will win against anybody but Tulsi Gabbard if the financial cartel doesn't decide to pull the trigger.
Koo koo for Coco Puffs.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:05 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
USA Today story on Virginia:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ia/4155155002/



As I mentioned earlier: Next year's election will be particularly important as the census, and redistricting that follows, comes only once per decade. Winning state legislatures is the key to winning overall, because the party that wins can then stack the deck in its own favor for the rest of the decade via gerrymandering.
I hope they mander the damn gerry right off, blatantly making it impossible for a Trumper to ever win a seat bigger than county dogcatcher, and set themselves up for an important precedent when it gets overturned.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:10 PM   #18
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Do you think a blatant, and well publicized, attempt to Gerrymander the **** out of the Commonwealth would do some good towards getting both parties to see Gerrymandering as a bad thing nationally?
Would be nice, but I think that is too much to hope for.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:25 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Do you think a blatant, and well publicized, attempt to Gerrymander the **** out of the Commonwealth would do some good towards getting both parties to see Gerrymandering as a bad thing nationally?
Would be nice, but I think that is too much to hope for.
Well they might just undo the GOP gerrymander so that representation aligns with vote share. Of course the GOP would howl if any steps are taken to level the playing field.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:37 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well they might just undo the GOP gerrymander so that representation aligns with vote share. Of course the GOP would howl if any steps are taken to level the playing field.


I'm torn. On the one hand, we really do need people in office who really believe in the principles of democracy. But on the other hand, when one side has completely abandoned reason and normalcy, we need to do something about them.

If they're going to complain about the changes being unfair, no matter how fair they actually are, then maybe we should just say **** it, and show them what real unfairness looks like. Maybe then they'll be glad to get back to real fairness.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:50 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Virginia has gone blue. The Democrats have seized both legislative chambers. Combined with their Democratic Governor they should be able to control the agenda there.
Hoping to see repeal of the laws protecting confederate monuments in the state. Right now VA law prohibits municipal governments from removing confederate propaganda from public property.

Not sure if this something that is high priority, but seems like an easy one to me.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:50 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Looks to me like he'd lose against anybody, maybe including her. But thanks for the kibitz, Vlad.
Hey, for CE a Trump vs Gabbard race wold be perfect:no matter who loses, Putin wins.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:53 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
I'm torn. On the one hand, we really do need people in office who really believe in the principles of democracy. But on the other hand, when one side has completely abandoned reason and normalcy, we need to do something about them.

If they're going to complain about the changes being unfair, no matter how fair they actually are, then maybe we should just say **** it, and show them what real unfairness looks like. Maybe then they'll be glad to get back to real fairness.
Thats what I was suggesting.
Would a wildly, blatantly unfair, Democratic leaning Gerrymander serve to bring the practice to the forefront on a national scale so that it can be dealt with by both parties?

Or would it just continue the Gerrymander "arms race"
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:54 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Do you think a blatant, and well publicized, attempt to Gerrymander the **** out of the Commonwealth would do some good towards getting both parties to see Gerrymandering as a bad thing nationally?
Would be nice, but I think that is too much to hope for.
Both parties campaign against Gerrymandering when the other side is in charge, but love it when they are in charge.
In California, we got rid of it by intiative, after the state legislature basically did nothing.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:56 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
I'm torn. On the one hand, we really do need people in office who really believe in the principles of democracy. But on the other hand, when one side has completely abandoned reason and normalcy, we need to do something about them.

If they're going to complain about the changes being unfair, no matter how fair they actually are, then maybe we should just say **** it, and show them what real unfairness looks like. Maybe then they'll be glad to get back to real fairness.
I have to disagree. "The ends justifies the means" is a very dangerous philosophy.
And, frankly, when it comes to kind of election mischier, I don't trust either party.
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Old 6th November 2019, 12:59 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well they might just undo the GOP gerrymander so that representation aligns with vote share. Of course the GOP would howl if any steps are taken to level the playing field.

One man, one vote.
Which is why I don't like PR.
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Old 6th November 2019, 01:06 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Thats what I was suggesting.
Would a wildly, blatantly unfair, Democratic leaning Gerrymander serve to bring the practice to the forefront on a national scale so that it can be dealt with by both parties?

Or would it just continue the Gerrymander "arms race"

I would expect it to be selectively ignored. Kind of like the guy running for Governor of California who was running blatantly false political ads on Facebook specifically to draw attention to their policy. His ads got blocked after Facebook decided he wasn't a "real" politician.
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Old 6th November 2019, 01:15 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Both parties campaign against Gerrymandering when the other side is in charge, but love it when they are in charge.
In California, we got rid of it by intiative, after the state legislature basically did nothing.
Of late, the Democrats have been the party calling foul the most often on Gerrymandering.
That makes it something the red half of the country can ignore.

The howling that the Republicans in VA would let loose with should the new Democratically controlled State legislature attempt to do it "with a vengeance" could provide an impetus to swing the popular consensus towards eliminating the practice.
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Old 6th November 2019, 01:44 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Virginia has gone blue. The Democrats have seized both legislative chambers. Combined with their Democratic Governor they should be able to control the agenda there.

Fun fact: An early agenda item will be to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment by being the 38th state to pass it since Congress passed it in 1972.
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Old 6th November 2019, 01:51 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Of late, the Democrats have been the party calling foul the most often on Gerrymandering.
That makes it something the red half of the country can ignore.

The howling that the Republicans in VA would let loose with should the new Democratically controlled State legislature attempt to do it "with a vengeance" could provide an impetus to swing the popular consensus towards eliminating the practice.
And if the Trumpers suddenly have a change of heart and want fairly drawn districts, they need to propose a system for doing so that puts it out of their reach the next time they're in power on a census year. Otherwise it's a false promise like all of the others have been.
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Old 6th November 2019, 01:51 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Fun fact: An early agenda item will be to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment by being the 38th state to pass it since Congress passed it in 1972.
Why does that matter at this point? The period to approve the ERA expired decades ago.
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Old 6th November 2019, 02:45 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Why does that matter at this point? The period to approve the ERA expired decades ago.

It would be taken to court, asking if the deadline was constitutional, since the Constitution doesn't set a limit, and no other amendment had a deadline. Or Congress could simply legislate to extend the deadline.
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Old 6th November 2019, 02:48 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
Looks like the GOP is gonna try and steal the KY election

https://theweek.com/speedreads/87668...-next-governor
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't think they'd dare, but we'll see. What he actually said was pretty vague, and I'm not cynical enough yet to assume the worst.
I, on the other hand, don't think they'll hesitate for a moment. They have no shame.
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Old 6th November 2019, 03:17 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Thats what I was suggesting.
Would a wildly, blatantly unfair, Democratic leaning Gerrymander serve to bring the practice to the forefront on a national scale so that it can be dealt with by both parties?

Or would it just continue the Gerrymander "arms race"
Well, its doubtful that the republicans would ever stop their practice of gerrymandering.

So for the Democrats to decide "We will play fair and redistrict based on population only", then they are basically bringing a knife to a gun fight, since the republicans will continue to gerrymander every chance they get.
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Old 6th November 2019, 03:43 PM   #35
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Well, its doubtful that the republicans would ever stop their practice of gerrymandering.

So for the Democrats to decide "We will play fair and redistrict based on population only", then they are basically bringing a knife to a gun fight, since the republicans will continue to gerrymander every chance they get.
I agree. The only way to convince Republicans to cooperate with an anti- gerrymander initiative may be an object lesson on how it hurts them too.

Of course, as your "knife to a gunfight" comment illustrates, it may simply accelerate the process in a "gerrymandering arms race" as well.
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Old 6th November 2019, 03:57 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Well, its doubtful that the republicans would ever stop their practice of gerrymandering.

So for the Democrats to decide "We will play fair and redistrict based on population only", then they are basically bringing a knife to a gun fight, since the republicans will continue to gerrymander every chance they get.
You also have the problem that Democrats also gerrymander like crazy when they get control of a state legislature.
Both parties Gerrymander when they have the chance.
As much as I despise Trump and what the GOP has become in the last few years, when it comes to Gerrymandering both sides think it's horrible when the other guy does it, but fine when their side does it.
Neither party will stop gerrymandering. It's only when the people for action..like in Califorian where they passed an intiative taking the redistricting away from elected politicians and into the hands of a non partisan commission, that something was done about the problem.
I infinently prefer the Democrats right now, but I am not going to think they are pure little angels when it comes to dirty politics. They can be very good at it, as Chicago and Illinois show.
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Old 6th November 2019, 04:02 PM   #37
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This seems appropriate:


Circa 1810:Just shows how long the Gerrymandering sheninagans have been going on.
In fact, this Cartoon is where the term Gerrymander comes from.
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Old 6th November 2019, 04:04 PM   #38
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Just read a story that although Kentucky and Virginia get the headlines, the real bad news for Trump might be in a number of Surburban elections in Pennslyvania, where the GOP suffered severe setbacks.
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Old 6th November 2019, 04:24 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Just read a story that although Kentucky and Virginia get the headlines, the real bad news for Trump might be in a number of Surburban elections in Pennslyvania, where the GOP suffered severe setbacks.
Link? TIA
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Old 6th November 2019, 04:40 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Link? TIA
https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...n-2020-2019-11
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