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View Poll Results: When will Trump start claiming 2020 election fraud?
November 5, 2019, day after the election. 3 10.34%
November 5, 2018, one year before 6 20.69%
Between January and November, 2019 8 27.59%
Any day now 10 34.48%
On planet X, he will graciously accept defeat of victory. 2 6.90%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 8th June 2019, 08:07 PM   #41
Minoosh
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
If he really wanted to know the answer, it would have taken all of a couple minutes to find it with a quick google search.

And he sure as hell wasn't asking a 'yes or no' question. I answered it by showing Lou Dobbs was falsely claiming there was voting by illegal immigrants but that Trump's claims were about election fraud and rigging, not specifically voting by illegal immigrants. His response was to insult me.
I understand that people play dumb as a rhetorical tool ... but if that was the case I don't really know what the objective would be. I don't see any big "gotcha" lurking anywhere. But I may be kind of naive that way.

I went over some database (Heritage Foundation?) that supposedly documented dozens of voter fraud cases ... and it did, but about half IIRC were for, like, JP in some rural Kentucky district and they had to go back decades to scare up some cases. Then there was this case, detailed in the Texas Tribune:

Originally Posted by Texas Tribune
"Someone did not do their due diligence": How an attempt to review Texas' voter rolls turned into a debacle

Texas officials flagged 95,000 voters for citizenship reviews. But after thousands have already been cleared, questions are being raised about how they handled the process.
So maybe you were being set up, but for what? I don't understand the payoff. If there's widespread voter fraud I want to know about it, but every time I try to chase down the data it just does not amount to much. And it's far from clear that Democrats are the main beneficiary of whatever fraud there is.
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Old 8th June 2019, 08:28 PM   #42
Minoosh
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Also Lou Dobbs has been doing his anti-immigrant shtick for more than 10 years now. He's a fraud.

I knew Trump was tapping into a wellspring of resentment, but Tom Tancredo tried and failed to get traction with this 10 11-12 years ago. The Republican nominee ended up being McCain. I know there is residual bitterness about "them" taking "our jobs," but I'm not sure how far it's going to get anybody.

The red states know damn well they need the immigrants, to the point where House Republicans couldn't pass an immigration bill that would require employers to use E-Verify. McCain was pushing "tamper-resistant biometric ID," but having proposing a national ID used to give conservatives the vapors. And the states definitely pushed back against Trump's blue-ribbon commission or whatever that was supposed to expose all this fraud. Bully for the states, including a bunch of Republican ones.

Meanwhile there are still a few conservatives who see benefits in free trade and a mobile migrant workforce.

If the Latin American kiddos who are citizens don't turn out in force next November I'll be disappointed. DACA, baby, DACA!

ETA: Though some of it is warranted, it's past time to whine about Republican voter suppression efforts. IMO it's in everyone's interest to make sure anyone who wants to vote (legally) has the proper ID and a ride to the polls. There's lots of time left to work on this. I don't know if anything will motivate young voters as much as the Vietnam War did, but I hope they don't all give in to apathy. They're going to be in this world a lot longer than I will be. Whoever they vote for, I just hope they get out and vote.

Last edited by Minoosh; 8th June 2019 at 08:38 PM.
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Old 9th June 2019, 02:59 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
ETA: Though some of it is warranted, it's past time to whine about Republican voter suppression efforts. IMO it's in everyone's interest to make sure anyone who wants to vote (legally) has the proper ID and a ride to the polls. There's lots of time left to work on this. I don't know if anything will motivate young voters as much as the Vietnam War did, but I hope they don't all give in to apathy. They're going to be in this world a lot longer than I will be. Whoever they vote for, I just hope they get out and vote.
This is very good advice. There is at least 18 months, and time is actually running out to get this sorted. Fight all the necessary fights about this and win the battles necessary NOW. Make the arrangements and perhaps get them tested. Then check every month leading up to 2020 in case there is some unexplained change of heart by authorities.
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Old 9th June 2019, 04:37 AM   #44
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Right around the same time Democrats will claim election fraud
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Old 10th June 2019, 12:09 AM   #45
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Right after passing Peak Trump.
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Old 10th June 2019, 12:32 AM   #46
The Don
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
ETA: Though some of it is warranted, it's past time to whine about Republican voter suppression efforts. IMO it's in everyone's interest to make sure anyone who wants to vote (legally) has the proper ID and a ride to the polls. There's lots of time left to work on this. I don't know if anything will motivate young voters as much as the Vietnam War did, but I hope they don't all give in to apathy. They're going to be in this world a lot longer than I will be. Whoever they vote for, I just hope they get out and vote.
I'm not sure that it's in everybody's interest. Increasingly it's in the GOP's interest to ensure that older, whiter, voters are able to vote and younger and/or more ethnically diverse voters find it more difficult to do so.

Providing people with valid ID now and expecting them to still have it, and it still be valid, in 18 months time isn't reasonable for people with chaotic lives - and in any case voter ID laws are a "solution" to a problem which has yet to be shown to exist (widespread voter fraud) and where the side effects (a disproportionate disenfranchisement of certain demographics) are desirable for one party.

As regards getting a ride to the polls. That's a good idea but it still doesn't address fully the issue of people working two or three jobs actually having the time to get out and vote - especially when the polling stations in certain neighbourhoods are so few that it's not unusual to have to wait on line for at least an hour, and even then you can be denied the right to vote if the polls close before you get to the front of the line. That situation is likely to be exacerbated by voter ID laws especially if officials in some polling stations take their sweet time checking the IDs of minority voters "Just to be sure".

IMO you're right about motivating the voters though. If the Democratic Party pick a Biden or Warren or another of the fossils who have been around for decades, I don't think young voters will be inspired and motivated to get out and vote. They need to find a candidate who is exciting enough to inspire people who might otherwise be disinclined to vote whilst not being so extreme as to spook the right wing of the party.
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Old 10th June 2019, 01:29 AM   #47
Minoosh
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not sure that it's in everybody's interest. Increasingly it's in the GOP's interest to ensure that older, whiter, voters are able to vote and younger and/or more ethnically diverse voters find it more difficult to do so.
It may be in the GOP's short-term interest, but if they don't want to incur significant demographic backlash that base is not viable much beyond 2020, IMO.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Providing people with valid ID now and expecting them to still have it, and it still be valid, in 18 months time isn't reasonable for people with chaotic lives ...
Really? Most IDs are good for more than 18 months, and the kind of chaos you envision also has a limited shelf life. And, respectfully, that's a wee bit of a paternalistic attitude you've got. People need to get DL's or state ID and they're fully capable of getting it, especially with the help of registration drives.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
- and in any case voter ID laws are a "solution" to a problem which has yet to be shown to exist (widespread voter fraud) and where the side effects (a disproportionate disenfranchisement of certain demographics) are desirable for one party.
Keep fighting it in the courts etc. What's the alternative? Giving up? And I don't think people are as hopelessly disorganized as you seem to think. If Trump voters can manage to get to the polls so can younger, more progressive folks.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As regards getting a ride to the polls. That's a good idea but it still doesn't address fully the issue of people working two or three jobs actually having the time to get out and vote ...
Nothing is going to "fully address" that. But voting isn't that hard. Most states have early-voting or mail-in options. Also if I understand correctly, gerrymandering has a downside - a lower-margin majority is thinly spread to create more "safe districts," but it can flip fairly quickly. (I'm DEFINITELY not an expert, though.)

I don't think complacency is going to keep as many people home as it did in 2016. Dems definitely need a better candidate than Hillary, but even with some party stalwart running, there's still going to be a marked contrast to Trump. With the right VP there's no reason not to field a team people can get behind.

Last edited by Minoosh; 10th June 2019 at 01:57 AM. Reason: minor reworking
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Old 10th June 2019, 01:57 AM   #48
The Don
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
It may be in the GOP's short-term interest, but if they don't want to incur significant demographic backlash that base is not viable beyond 2020, IMO.
The GOP's demographic time-bomb steadfastly seems to fail to make itself felt. The GOP seems very adept at ensuring that its representatives get elected despite the demographic challenges it faces. IMO it won't change tack until and unless if fails to get elected in a spectacular way.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Really? Most IDs are good for more than 18 months, and the kind of chaos you envision also has a limited shelf life. And, respectfully, that's a wee bit of a paternalistic attitude you've got. People meed to get DL's or state ID and they're fully capable of it, especially with the help of registration drives.
You may consider it paternalistic, but people with "chaotic" lifestyles can find it difficult to get and keep valid ID. If the ID also has to have an accurate address, then that's doubly difficult for those who are sofa-surfing or living with a series of friends and/or relatives.

IDs get stolen and/or go missing all the time. As someone living a comfortable middle-class lifestyle, it's very unlikely that it will happen to me and if it does I have the time, motivation and resources to sort out another one pretty easily. It's less easy for someone who doesn't have all their paperwork easily to hand and/or doesn't have the time to sort out a replacement.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Keep fighting it in the courts etc. What's the alternative? Giving up? And I don't think people are as hopelessly disorganized as you seem to think. If Trump voters can manage to get to the polls so can younger, more progressive voters.
Young and progressive voters can get to the polls as long as they are registered (lots of students purged from rolls), have the time, have valid ID and are motivated to go out and vote for the non-Trump candidate.

Trump voters are highly motivated and are champing at the bit to go out and vote for their candidate. At around 40% of the electorate, they're also IMO the largest single voting bloc.

If the GOP make it as easy as possible for GOP voters to get out an vote by having lots of polling stations and keeping any lines short by having very quick ID checks whilst at the same time making sure that there are few polling stations in Democratic Party leaning areas and keeping the lines nice and long to discourage people from voting then so much the better from their perspective.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Nothing is going to "fully address" that. Voting isn't that hard. Most states have early-voting or mail-in options.
No, you cannot fully address it but comparing the lines at US polling stations to here in the UK (for similar turnouts) it seems that in certain areas there simply aren't enough polling stations, that they're difficult to get to and at least in the UK if you are on line to vote at the time the polling station closes then you get to vote even if it takes a while afterwards. As I understand it, the same is not necessarily the case in the UK.

Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
I don't think complacency is going to keep people home as it did in 2016. I hope I'm right.
It depends, IMO.

Give people someone exciting to vote for then they will be motivated to go out and vote. Give them the same-old same-old then they might well think that standing on line for an hour and being subjected to an inquisition over who they are isn't worth it to vote for someone they dislike just a little less than President Trump.
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