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Old 17th July 2020, 10:49 AM   #41
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I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months.

She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on.
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Old 17th July 2020, 10:53 AM   #42
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The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
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Old 17th July 2020, 11:07 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Yes there really wasn't anything special about that last graph - some of the others, I hadn't seen the particular data arranged as I had.

My last graph was simply plotting the data from here.

Using the date row as the x-axis, and the most complex operation was to subtract the 5-year average row of data from the all-deaths row. The rest is self-explanatory

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales
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Old 17th July 2020, 11:49 AM   #44
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This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/
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Old 17th July 2020, 12:10 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months.

She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on.
So BuBu (or rather his cronies) are playing to the "Covid-19 isn't as dangerous as *they* say" lobby?
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Old 17th July 2020, 12:45 PM   #46
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Probably. The statistician said it was an anomaly that needed to be corrected but that at the moment it probably wasn't making any real difference to the figures and it hardly needed grandiose announcements of an inquiry. Hancock is making a bigger fuss about this than anybody did about the revelation that the daily new cases figure announced in England was only Pillar 1 data and the real figure was a lot higher.
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Old 17th July 2020, 03:44 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/

The UK page (it's not just England) is now up in a beta-test version here.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
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Old 18th July 2020, 03:13 AM   #48
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Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently . So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus
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Old 18th July 2020, 03:33 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Mid View Post
Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently . So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus
In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences.

Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus.

Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert.

Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly.
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Old 18th July 2020, 03:41 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences.

Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus.

Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert.

Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly.
Basically yes, a complete and utter lack of leadership or moral authority.

But that's to be expected with the fat toad that's lying around Downing St and his psychopathic handler
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:03 AM   #51
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“We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.”
Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance?
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:05 AM   #52
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In international terms England isn't desperately bad at the moment. (It's the worst in the world for deaths per million, but that was then, this is now.) It's been two weeks since the big unwise opening up and although there has been an uptick in cases it's not at the moment looking like a return to exponential growth.

It seems to be a situation where the virus wasn't suppressed far enough before opening up so that continuing cases with R around 1 are a lot higher than desirable or comfortable, but it's staying around that level rather than flaring up again. It's not great because it implies that people are going to go on getting sick and dying at around the present rate for the foreseeable future, but it's not Florida.
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:09 AM   #53
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Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not!
Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence!
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:19 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
“We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.”
Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance?
The highlighted words are what appeared in headlines, of course.


Even the Grauniad, who you'd hope would know better.

Quote:
Boris Johnson unveils plan to return England 'to normality' by Christmas
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:59 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not!
Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence!
This is because the UK's chief science adviser has said that the government were told to lockdown a week earlier than they actually did
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Old 18th July 2020, 07:35 AM   #56
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Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data.

Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data

The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition?

They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before?
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Old 18th July 2020, 09:47 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data.

Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data

The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition?

They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before?
We know it really isn't going to alter it much as we can see there was huge under-counting at the peak of the epidemic.

I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment.

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Old 18th July 2020, 10:43 AM   #58
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If he's going to stop the reporting of covid deaths, I hope the media instead start publishing the excess deaths.
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Old 18th July 2020, 10:56 AM   #59
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Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it.
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Old 18th July 2020, 12:13 PM   #60
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Historically, Britain's vaccine manufacturing industry was far higher quality and safer than the USA's. (My late senior partner was a vaccine scientist in his earlier career and was often heard bemoaning the fact that we'd allowed our vaccine manufacturing to be relocated to the States because the regulations were so much less stringent he believed safety could be compromised. He blamed this for the incident where a contaminated dog distemper/hepatitis vaccine spread canine parvovirus around the world in 1978.)

However, whether we're still holding to more stringent safety requirements I do not know.
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Old 18th July 2020, 12:16 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment.

I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity.
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Old 18th July 2020, 12:20 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it.
Credit where it's due. Rare though that is.
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Old 18th July 2020, 01:05 PM   #63
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On my way into work tonight I saw the remnants of a demonstration that apparently took place in Camden Town this afternoon or early this evening. Some people were walking away from it still shouting about "lockdown" and carrying placards opposing it, and opposing 5G, and vaccinations, and masks, and the New World Order and, well, generally just opposing everything.

I did see one placard that particularly took my interest. It said:

END LOCKDOWN NOW
FREE NHS TO SAVE THOSE IT'S LEFT BEHIND.

Which seemed particularly stupid and callous, but maybe it's just me.
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Old 18th July 2020, 01:57 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity.
This is what it looks like for those deaths listed as respiratory causes (so presumably flu and COPD, for example) again for England and Wales from 2015 to 2020



So there might be a hint of that in these data
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:16 PM   #65
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Boris tweeted

Boris Johnson #StayAlert
@BorisJohnson
This weekend, many of us will be seeing friends, going to the pub or going out to restaurants. As we open the economy back up, we must remember to follow social distancing guidelines. Keep yourself, your family and your community safe.
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Old 18th July 2020, 04:23 PM   #66
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As you can see a socially distanced pub is a barrel of laughs


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Old 20th July 2020, 02:22 AM   #67
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Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.

Quote:
Sitel, which carries out contact tracing for NHS England, said it was aware of a "local outbreak" at its Motherwell site.

Deputy first minister John Swinney told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland the call centre has been closed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160
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Old 20th July 2020, 02:27 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160
Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts?



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Old 20th July 2020, 02:46 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160
The hunters became the hunted!
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:32 AM   #70
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If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point:

Quote:
Privacy campaigners say England's test and trace programme has broken a key data protection law.
Quote:
ORG had threatened to go to court to force the government to conduct a data protection impact assessment (DPIA) - a requirement under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for projects that process personal data.

A letter from the Department of Health to the group confirmed that a DPIA was a legal requirement and had not been obtained.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:47 AM   #71
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Sigh. That inspires no confidence in test and trace.
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:52 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts?


They won't even be involved. They were apparently working under contract for NHS England, which likes to centralise everything. Our own contact tracers are local boots on the ground working through the local authorities.

And we don't do "track and trace" in Scotland, that's a term invented in England to avoid people thinking too much about testing and isolation. It suggests merely observing what's happening as the virus spreads which seems to be about the size of it. In Scotland we are doing "find, test, contact-trace, isolate and support" which is the recommended procedure. (Shortened to "test and protect".)

Irony of ironies. I have been keeping in touch with three households of elderly cousins all through the epidemic. Last time I spoke to them on the phone I said that since the travel restrictions were about to be lifted I thought I'd drive over to where they live (they're all in the same town) and visit all of them in their gardens on the same trip. I was waiting for a dry and warm day and Thursday was looking good.

Where do they live? Motherwell.
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Old 20th July 2020, 03:52 AM   #73
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Why the hell are they doing this from a physical call centre, this is a job that has been proven to be effective with people working from home.
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Old 20th July 2020, 04:12 AM   #74
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Mmm. As far as I can make out this is a commercial call centre that hires itself out to work for any client who'll pay them. NHS England has engaged them to do work for the English contact tracing scheme even though the call centre is in Scotland.

This basic model has been heavily criticised elsewhere, with many experts pointing out that the only way to do effective contact tracing is with local teams who know the area, know where people live and work and shop, and can speak to them in their own language. But that's not quite the point here.

It's a commercial call centre. Who it was working for isn't really the point. They could have been phoning people up trying to persuade them to buy double glazing and I suspect that was probably happening in the same building as well but of course the media have latched on to the contact tracing contract. The question is why were people working in a physical call centre in the first place? Yes we've been allowed to go back to work but "work from home if possible" is still the advice as far as I know.

I'm going to call my cousins and postpone my visit until they've cleaned up Motherwell.
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:17 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471
Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar)
Cheap, popular and it works
How much did the UK app cost again?
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:31 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar)
Cheap, popular and it works
How much did the UK app cost again?
The app itself, a mere £12 million.

A complete bargain.
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Old 20th July 2020, 09:22 AM   #77
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I have it on good authority that there has been another cluster in an office where no effort was made to socially distance, said office being the Major Investigation Team with Police Scotland based near Glasgow Airport.
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Old 20th July 2020, 09:24 AM   #78
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England’s chief nurse has confirmed she was dropped from a daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing after refusing to back Dominic Cummings.

Quote:
In a trial run for the 1 June briefing, Ruth May said she was asked about Boris Johnson’s chief adviser driving his family from London to Durham during lockdown while his wife had suspected Covid-19.
After she failed to back Cummings, she was told she was no longer needed for the televised press conference taking place later that day, though she was never given an explanation why.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...mings-ruth-may


At the time the story came out, Downing Street said Ruth May had missed the press conference because she was 'stuck in traffic'
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Old 20th July 2020, 09:38 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I have it on good authority that there has been another cluster in an office where no effort was made to socially distance, said office being the Major Investigation Team with Police Scotland based near Glasgow Airport.

Let's see if that shows up in the daily stats then. The Motherwell cluster hasn't.

The modellers thought there were only about 700 people in Scotland capable of passing on the virus as of last Friday. One in 11,000 of the population or so. But it's still out there and not distancing is insanity on stilts.

The police have often seemed to take the attitude that virus regulations are for them to enforce on other people, not for them to carry out themselves. Maybe that's how they view the law in general.
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Old 20th July 2020, 10:01 AM   #80
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Just found out in more detail where this "Motherwell" virus cluster is. It's not as near my cousins as all that (although of course we don't know where the call centre workers actually live), but it is literally smack next door to the hotel restaurant which my friend and I had picked for our big lockdown-loosening outing next week.

Oh well, back to the drawing board. And the takeaway dinners.
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