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Tags putin , russia , Russia-EU relations , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine

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Old 29th September 2022, 12:54 PM   #161
pzkpfw
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Originally Posted by azazal View Post
I would be more inclined towards the Russians meant to sabotage the Baltic pipeline, but in a comedy of errors, blew up the wrong pipeline[s].
Two out of three ain't bad.

Last edited by pzkpfw; 29th September 2022 at 12:55 PM. Reason: Add plural
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:50 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
You're also overstating the political pressure.

I was talking about pressure on the government by the population and the industry. Here's just the mentioned demo in Lubmin (where NS2 ends) last Sunday:

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Old 29th September 2022, 01:51 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Lord Emsworth View Post
And?

And I showed your willful ignorance or whatever it is to be whatever it is.

Last edited by Childlike Empress; 29th September 2022 at 01:52 PM.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:00 PM   #164
RecoveringYuppy
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It is quite unequivocal.
Yes, I was referring to the same thing CE pointed out. It's significant that they didn't actually name Russia.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:03 PM   #165
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Helmholtz Smith has a good piece entitled Nordstream. Cui bono?

Originally Posted by Helmholtz Smith
The very first thing that Monsieur Poirot (and other world-famous fictional detectives) would ask when presented with a dead body is who benefits. Who benefits from the death of both Nordstreams?

Certainly not Germany. Der Spiegel lays out the coming catastrophe “The economy is sliding almost uncontrolled into a crisis that could permanently weaken the country“. That was written when the possibility that the gas would come back was still there.

How about Putin? To see a benefit for Russia one would have to ignore all the effort it put into completing the thing and all the money it spent. But the real hard thing to ignore is that the pipelines were a great bargaining chip. Moscow could always hope that, threatened with economic ruin, Berlin would defy the EU, NATO and Washington and ask for the line to be turned on. The Russians believe they are fighting NATO and Germany quitting the NATO camp would be a major victory. As Putin said, “just push the button.” That’s gone.

If not Germany or Russia, how about Martians? But Martians have always shown a contemptuous indifference to the affairs of Earth as is shown by their favorite expression “thick in atmosphere, thick in head”. [...]

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Old 29th September 2022, 02:08 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I was talking about pressure on the government by the population and the industry. Here's just the mentioned demo in Lubmin (where NS2 ends) last Sunday:

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Yes, I understood what you meant, and I'm saying that no one is going to perform extremely risky covert operations because of a few protests. If public opinion ever shifts far enough, then sanctions will be lifted. That's how democracies work. At the moment, we aren't even close.

Also, if you think those protests are signs of some great crisis, I wonder what you think about the current situation in Russia. They've been arresting people left and right. Or maybe you think that's what Germany should be doing?
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:17 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
And I showed your willful ignorance or whatever it is to be whatever it is.
Mhmmmm hmmmmm.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:32 PM   #168
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NATO claiming sabotage does not directly accuses RUssia .. but it does suggest NATO countries deny responsibility. Which leaves Russia, Ukraine, local non-NATO countries, and remote "third party" who can simply enjoy the tension in Europe.
Destroying something, possibly increasing gas price, still deeply illogical .. sounds like Russians after all.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:44 PM   #169
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Quote:
How about Putin? To see a benefit for Russia one would have to ignore all the effort it put into completing the thing and all the money it spent. But the real hard thing to ignore is that the pipelines were a great bargaining chip. Moscow could always hope that, threatened with economic ruin, Berlin would defy the EU, NATO and Washington and ask for the line to be turned on. The Russians believe they are fighting NATO and Germany quitting the NATO camp would be a major victory. As Putin said, “just push the button.” That’s gone.
Profits do not have to be financial.

1. Russia seeks to profit by sowing discord amongst their adversaries. These adversaries are even enumerated in this very paragraph. And the desire to drive wedges between them is spelled out too. And that "button" was about to go defunct -- if it ever would have worked -- anyway. So, why not try a button-ersatz?

2. They also seek to save face for sinking a lot of effort and money in a (soon to be) doomed project. Russia (that is, the official Russia) doesn't make bad decisions. If these pipelines are blown up by very, very unfriendly agencies, it kind of relieves Russia from explaining why they sank so much effort and money into the Baltic Sea.
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Old 29th September 2022, 03:46 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Nord Stream belongs mostly to Russia, it was damaged in international waters and was unused.

An attack on the Baltic Pipe would be completely different.
AIUI one pipe belongs to Gazprom and the other to a Gazprom subsidiary in Switzerland.

Remember: Gazprom is full of crooks.
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Old 29th September 2022, 07:18 PM   #171
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Sabotage? Nyet, Comrade! In another of the unfortunate accidents that have beset the Russian energy industry recently, some gas lost its balance and fell out of the pipelines.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:28 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Maybe I'm an idiot, but I don't. It would seem strange to me for Russia to do it, since they don't need holes in the pipeline to shut it down. They can do that on a whim without having to damage anything. Which is better, because then they can turn it back on whenever they want.
You are assuming that the Russian leadership has any interest in restarting the export of gas. Putin doesn't care about the costs. Hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties and billions in lost income are nothing.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:35 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Helmholtz Smith has a good piece entitled Nordstream. Cui bono?
Lol fantasies about Germany "quitting" NATO just so they can keep suckling on Russian pipelines? Not even Putin believes that.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:38 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
3.6 gas leaks. Not great; not terrible.
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:00 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
AIUI one pipe belongs to Gazprom and the other to a Gazprom subsidiary in Switzerland.

Remember: Gazprom is full of crooks.
Looking up this seems like Gazprom is the controlling shareholder for the functional Nordstreams with 51% with 49% held by assorted European entities. This actually gives Russia/Gazprom a clear motive to destroy the pipeline since deliberate "screw over the minority shareholder" approach by not selling gas, would pretty much leave all GPs properties outside Russia open to seizure for damages sustained by the owners of 49%.
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:12 PM   #176
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The easiest way to blow up the pipes was, of course, to rig one of the maintenance robots with explosives and send them in.
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:22 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The easiest way to blow up the pipes was, of course, to rig one of the maintenance robots with explosives and send them in.
They have robots that will move through a pipe that's full of gas but the gas isn't flowing?
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:34 PM   #178
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We don't know if the flow had completely stopped
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:55 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Reformed Offlian View Post
3.6 gas leaks. Not great; not terrible.
It is very big news here in Finland. The authorities are very disquietened and doing a lot of 'what-if'-ing.

So were Russia to blow up the main underground pipe in a remote Finnish forest, Finland would be plunged into darkness and people would sound start dying as temperatures reach up to -20°C in winter.

Norway is bringing in the military to protect its pipes.
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Old 30th September 2022, 05:42 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
LOL, unbelievable. Less than an hour ago:



"MEP" stands for member of European Parliament. He's one of the more crazy Poles, married to the NeoCon nutjob Anne Appelbaum. Glad that we agree for once. Of course only on the likely culprit, not on his emotions that must be so strong that he felt the urge to tweet about them.

Sikorski has now deleted his tweet, apparently yesterday. It has made the rounds and is of course archived.

Apparently there will be a UNSC meeting about the issue today on Russia's demand. They (the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service SVR) claim to have evidence that "the West" was behind the attacks on the pipeline.
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Old 30th September 2022, 05:49 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Sikorski has now deleted his tweet, apparently yesterday. It has made the rounds and is of course archived.

Apparently there will be a UNSC meeting about the issue today on Russia's demand. They (the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service SVR) claim to have evidence that "the West" was behind the attacks on the pipeline.
Of course they'll claim to have evidence - and it'll be as reliable and credible as the usual evidence supplied.
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Old 30th September 2022, 05:50 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Of course they'll claim to have evidence - and it'll be as reliable and credible as the usual evidence supplied.

indeed.
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Old 30th September 2022, 05:58 AM   #183
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Woohoo, drama! This could be the greatest scandal in the history of NATO. Allies working against each other's interests with buckets of TNT. I wonder what the evidence could be! I'm absolutely giddy with excitement. See how I'm shaking.

Or maybe it's nothing. Oh well.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:15 AM   #184
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John Helmer has an interesting article about the Polish angle. Worth reading:

Aftershock of Nord Stream explosions rumbles Warsaw — Polish politicians go "nutters"

Concludes with a quote by Maria Zakharova who as usual hits the nail on the head - as evidenced by the even by their standards sub-par posts of some of the usual suspects here:

Originally Posted by Maria Zakharova
There is a feeling that for Europe, at an existential level, the very idea that those whom they call ‘allies’ may be behind this incident, provocation, sabotage is unacceptable. This idea is so monstrous for them and marks the point of no return that they cannot afford other arguments than the hackneyed Russian ‘factor’. They are afraid to break away from the ‘written’, because then the whole ideology will collapse at an instant, and the terrible truth will be exposed.

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Old 30th September 2022, 06:19 AM   #185
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Someone's projecting a tad, methinks.

Don't worry, we'll start "removing" problematic information post-haste.

Wait, no, that's another country. I forget its name.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:20 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
John Helmer has an interesting article about the Polish angle. Worth reading:

Aftershock of Nord Stream explosions rumbles Warsaw — Polish politicians go "nutters"

Concludes with a quote by Maria Zakharova who as usual hits the nail on the head - as evidenced by the even by their standards sub-par posts of some of the usual suspects here:
Bwahahahahahahahaha!!! Now I know you are having a laugh.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:27 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
...Worth reading:
Zero for 20,506.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:31 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
John Helmer has an interesting article about the Polish angle. Worth reading:

Aftershock of Nord Stream explosions rumbles Warsaw — Polish politicians go "nutters"

Concludes with a quote by Maria Zakharova who as usual hits the nail on the head - as evidenced by the even by their standards sub-par posts of some of the usual suspects here:
By the principle of Russian Propaganda Inversion: Russian politicians are freaking out over the idea that their supposed 'allies' are sabotaging their collective interests, and the whole premise of Russian greatness is about to collapse.

---

ETA: This propaganda piece also clearly establishes a Russian motive for sabotaging NS. If they can frame some western nation for it, that would help to destabilize the western alliance against them.
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:54 AM   #189
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I would like to thank the 'most intelligent person I'm ever likely to know' for helping me make sense of all this. When in doubt, I always look for a comment by CE and then I know without doubt, that the opposite of what she posted is more likely correct.
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Old 30th September 2022, 01:30 PM   #190
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So here's an argument for why the Nordstream explosions may have been accidental and not sabotage. I don't know a lot about pipelines, but it sounds pretty plausible:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the tuchkiss to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.
...
Doing so from one end does happen, but carrying it out requires a lot of very experienced people, luck (no, more than that), and the favour of multiple gods to pull off.

If the Gods blink, or Jobu has a particular case of the hips at you, what generally happens is the hydrate plug will still melt at the plug/wall junction, but when it does, the pressurised side will launch the plug (five feet in diametre, and the same density as water ice) at almost 200 miles an hour down the pipe towards the depressurised side.

When this plug bullet hits a bend in the pipe — well, it doesn’t stop, nor does it change direction easily. It’s going to make a hole.
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Old 30th September 2022, 01:34 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
So here's an argument for why the Nordstream explosions may have been accidental and not sabotage. I don't know a lot about pipelines, but it sounds pretty plausible:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the tuchkiss to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.
...
Doing so from one end does happen, but carrying it out requires a lot of very experienced people, luck (no, more than that), and the favour of multiple gods to pull off.

If the Gods blink, or Jobu has a particular case of the hips at you, what generally happens is the hydrate plug will still melt at the plug/wall junction, but when it does, the pressurised side will launch the plug (five feet in diametre, and the same density as water ice) at almost 200 miles an hour down the pipe towards the depressurised side.

When this plug bullet hits a bend in the pipe — well, it doesn’t stop, nor does it change direction easily. It’s going to make a hole.
What, four times? All within twelve miles of each other and in international waters.
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Old 30th September 2022, 01:47 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
What, four times? All within twelve miles of each other and in international waters.
If there's one hydrate plug, there's probably more than one. And once things start going tits up, it can be very hard to put the brakes on.
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Old 30th September 2022, 01:47 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
What, four times? All within twelve miles of each other and in international waters.
I could see a poorly-maintained Russian pipeline developing several plugs, and I bet that twelve-mile stretch is a bendy bit.

Honestly this makes a lot more sense than sabotage by any party.
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:03 PM   #194
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There seems to be video from January of President Biden publicly stating the following:

Quote:
President Biden: Let me answer this first question first. If Germany... ...if, uh, if Russia invades, uh, that means tanks or troops crossing the, uh, the... ..the border of Ukraine again, then, uh... ...there will be, uh.... ...we... ...there will be no longer a Nordstream II. We, we will bring an end to it.

Reporter: Would you... ...but how will you... ...how will you do that exactly since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control?

President Biden: We will, uh... I promise you we'll be able to do it.
That's my own transcription. If you feel it needs some editing, have at it. I really doubt I properly conveyed all the pauses well, but hopefully I got most of the words right.

Here's the video segment with a 9 second introduction by Dave Rubin along with some other stuff afterwards:

"Will Joe Biden's Words Come Back to Haunt Him in Light of This Attack _ DM CLIPS _ Rubin Report"

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
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Direct youtube link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX_Y7UQe6q8
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:09 PM   #195
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And there wasn't any Nord Stream II. How is that some big revelation?
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:17 PM   #196
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Maybe it was a "too."
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:44 PM   #197
Ziggurat
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Originally Posted by Shepherd View Post
Maybe it was a "too."
You mean one sabotage, followed by hydrate plug explosions?

Maybe.
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Old 30th September 2022, 02:47 PM   #198
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Shepherd View Post
Maybe it was a "too."
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
You mean one sabotage, followed by hydrate plug explosions?

Maybe.
Or intentionally allowing the conditions for hydrate plugs to form, and once you were pretty sure you had some, creating the conditions for them to do the thing.

But my provisional hypothesis is that the one guy at the control station who knew which buttons to press to keep hydrate plugs from forming got caught up in the mass conscription and was too busy buying bullet hole plugs to warn his boss before he was shipped off to the front.
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Old 30th September 2022, 04:17 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The easiest way to blow up the pipes was, of course, to rig one of the maintenance robots with explosives and send them in.
I had been wondering about this...

I have a dim memory of a TV documentary about various tools that could be sent inside a gas pipeline to check for damage etc.

Unfortunately it was also used as a plot device in a James Bond movie, which was causing me to doubt what I remembered.
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Old 30th September 2022, 04:39 PM   #200
junkshop
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
I had been wondering about this...

I have a dim memory of a TV documentary about various tools that could be sent inside a gas pipeline to check for damage etc.

Unfortunately it was also used as a plot device in a James Bond movie, which was causing me to doubt what I remembered.
I was thinking Harry Palmer (Funeral in Berlin, maybe?) I dunno.

Good scotch for birthday. Little self control. Brain go pfffff.
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