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Old 12th June 2019, 08:28 AM   #2641
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
News update: Labour plan to put forward a motion tomorrow blocking a no-deal Brexit and effectively taking the matter out of the hands of the government.
I still don't get how that would work. If the deal isn't renegotiated (and the EU say May's is the only one available) and we haven't voted to remain then a crash-out is the default.

Much as I'd like to run a 4-minute mile, no act of parliament can force me to.
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:32 AM   #2642
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Boris Johnson has said he is "not aiming for a no-deal outcome" for Brexit at the launch of his campaign for the Tory leadership.

But he said leaving no deal on the table was a "vital tool of negotiation" and the UK "must do better than the current withdrawal agreement".

"Delay means defeat, delay means Corbyn," he said, saying the UK must leave the EU on 31 October.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48602988
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:33 AM   #2643
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There were six squirrels and two rather handsome male pheasants on our deck this morning - Christmas is sorted

I also note that the bunnehs are returning to the garden after an absence of several years so Boxing Day might be well taken care of as well
Lucky sod.
The only pheasants I see are roadkill.
And the only bunny I've seeen by the house was a young one presented to us by the cat. Don't think that would have fed many mouths.

We do get the odd deer crossing the roads nearby, but I'm not sure my Up! would survive a collision with one.
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:37 AM   #2644
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Labour motion fails:

Quote:
By 309 votes to 298, MPs have rejected Labour's motion seeking to provide a way to stop a future PM forcing through a no-deal Brexit.

It means MPs will now not be able to introduce legislation on 25 June to attempt to stop the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of October.
No deal now inevitable IMO.
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:41 AM   #2645
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
They don't have to vote for it. If Labour, SNP, LibDem ChUK, Cymru and Greens gather all their strength they have 301 votes. All they need to do is to get 38 abstinentions from Tories, DUP and independents and the motion passes.

The calculation above counts all independents as Tory Brexiteers, near as I can tell they're more likely to support the motion than oppose it. If all threw their weight behind the motion you just need 6 abstinentions.

Realistically you need more because you won't have all of your MPs present and voting for the motion, but the same goes for Tories. I reckon twenty or so abstinentions with none voting in favor should be enough, if you could get forty that's plenty and should be enough no matter what Theresa May, BJ or anyone else does or says.

McHrozni
Sadly it seems that my pessimistic assessment was right. A handful of Tory rebels offset by a larger number of Labour dissenters.
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:14 AM   #2646
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It resulted in a centralization of what was already a single state for over 200 years at that point.

McHrozni
My quoted passage says something quite different, to wit:
the administration was subsumed into the Castilian administration, the lands of the Crown were united formally with those of Castile to legally form a single state, the kingdom of Spain
so the Nueva Planta laws are what made a single state, not the previous fact of the Crowns of Castile and Aragon having the same monarch.

Great Britain and Hanover had the same monarch from 1714 to 1837, but were never politically united. Monarchs reigning in more than one state is a common phenomenon, well known to Scots and English people alike, as it happened here too in the period 1603 to 1707.
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:34 AM   #2647
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If it's any comfort, the food shortages that very well may follow Brexit may result in a reduction of the incidence of Type-2 (a.k.a bad) diabetes.

Those with Type-1 (a.k.a. good) diabetes can be cured just by touching Nigel Farage's tweed suit - such is the power of Brexit.
Silver lining!
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:36 AM   #2648
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
It's the run up to Christmas as well...

At least we're growing sprouts this year, though I really don't fancy just sprouts for Christmas dinner.
Sprouts can sod off back to Brussels!
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:44 AM   #2649
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Sprouts can sod off back to Brussels!
Just rename them Freedom Brassicas.
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:47 AM   #2650
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Just rename them Freedom Brassicas.
Foul by any other name.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:47 AM   #2651
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Boris says "I took this city through riots"
He was on holiday in Canada and refused to come back and was heckled and booed bin Clapham when he finally turned up days later.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:52 AM   #2652
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Labour MP refuses to support a Labour motion to prevent no deal



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ost_type=share
I cannot decide whether Labour are a shambles, a shower or a combination of the two
So he is ruling out a no deal but refusing to vote to that effect? I get the futile nature of the vote but if non binding votes can cause this surely they have some utility.
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Old 12th June 2019, 12:58 PM   #2653
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Boris says "I took this city through riots"
He was on holiday in Canada and refused to come back and was heckled and booed bin Clapham when he finally turned up days later.
Fake boos!
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Old 12th June 2019, 01:31 PM   #2654
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Labour MP refuses to support a Labour motion to prevent no deal



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ost_type=share
I cannot decide whether Labour are a shambles, a shower or a combination of the two
The silliness - which is deadly serious - continues. Rory Stewart said he was going to support it originally, but then backpedalled. They were all under the whip. Only lost by about eleven (?) votes. Corbyn hopping with fury shouting, 'You won't be cheering in September', at the baying Tory benches.
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Old 12th June 2019, 01:33 PM   #2655
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I still don't get how that would work. If the deal isn't renegotiated (and the EU say May's is the only one available) and we haven't voted to remain then a crash-out is the default.

Much as I'd like to run a 4-minute mile, no act of parliament can force me to.
The plan was to pass legislation to make it statutory that a new PM/government couldn't bring about 'no deal' by design or default.
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Old 12th June 2019, 01:38 PM   #2656
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Boris Johnson has said he is "not aiming for a no-deal outcome" for Brexit at the launch of his campaign for the Tory leadership.

But he said leaving no deal on the table was a "vital tool of negotiation" and the UK "must do better than the current withdrawal agreement".

"Delay means defeat, delay means Corbyn," he said, saying the UK must leave the EU on 31 October.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48602988
Full of bluster as per usual.

The thing about Boris is, he has populist appeal, and that is also the where he is a double-edged sword. His buffoonery and faux bonhommie hides a really nasty character who really believes himself and his chums from the Bullingdon Club to be superior to the hoi-polloi and entitled to have generous tax breaks and to **** on the lower classes and 'immigrants' from a great height.

To achieve this he has to get the popular vote as he can't come out doing a goosestep and Roman salutes, although he's got the 'bark' of a dictator just right.
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Old 12th June 2019, 01:43 PM   #2657
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
So he is ruling out a no deal but refusing to vote to that effect? I get the futile nature of the vote but if non binding votes can cause this surely they have some utility.
This came up on my facebook feed:

https://www.ft.com/content/8d7d7e0e-...8-86cea8523dc2


Quote:
Opinion FT Magazine
Eight reasons Tory MPs keep getting it wrong
When it comes to Brexit, poor cognition is the curse of Britain’s governing class
SIMON KUPER
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Old 12th June 2019, 02:41 PM   #2658
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The plan was to pass legislation to make it statutory that a new PM/government couldn't bring about 'no deal' by design or default.
Yes, but how can you legislate to avoid the default? What would replace it that might survive a vote? My default is failing to run a 4-minute mile, and no legislation could make me do it even if I were willing.
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Old 12th June 2019, 02:59 PM   #2659
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Yes, but how can you legislate to avoid the default? What would replace it that might survive a vote? My default is failing to run a 4-minute mile, and no legislation could make me do it even if I were willing.
I expect it would need to be qualified by the words, 'there can be no 'no-deal' Brexit without first putting it to the people of the UK as a referendum question: namely, 'Do you accept a no-deal'? Yes/No. If no, then Article 50 will be revoked until such time a deal can be negotiated.'
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Old 12th June 2019, 03:07 PM   #2660
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Full of bluster as per usual.

The thing about Boris is, he has populist appeal, and that is also the where he is a double-edged sword. His buffoonery and faux bonhommie hides a really nasty character who really believes himself and his chums from the Bullingdon Club to be superior to the hoi-polloi and entitled to have generous tax breaks and to **** on the lower classes and 'immigrants' from a great height.

To achieve this he has to get the popular vote as he can't come out doing a goosestep and Roman salutes, although he's got the 'bark' of a dictator just right.
Gee, now where have I heard something like this?

Apparently Boris also tells people what they want to hear then contradicts that with the next group that want to hear something else. And refusing to answer the media about that when questioned. (Per France 24 news)

I wonder if Trump is envious of Boris' hair.
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Old 12th June 2019, 03:10 PM   #2661
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Labour motion fails:
Comedy genius of the week.

Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
My default is failing to run a 4-minute mile, and no legislation could make me do it even if I were willing.
You're not thinking outside the box.

You could easily run a 4-minute mile is the hill is steep enough.

Which is exactly the thinking behind Brexit - yes, it can be done, and damn any consequences.
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Old 12th June 2019, 10:13 PM   #2662
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly it seems that my pessimistic assessment was right. A handful of Tory rebels offset by a larger number of Labour dissenters.
The politics of UK rarely manage not to dissapoint.

Which Labour MPs dissented and ... why?

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Old 12th June 2019, 10:16 PM   #2663
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Yes, but how can you legislate to avoid the default? What would replace it that might survive a vote?
Eh, easy. Legislate so the PM is obligated to do everything in his/her/its power to avoid a no deal, up to and including revoking article 50 if all other options are exhausted.

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Old 12th June 2019, 10:20 PM   #2664
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If it's any comfort, the food shortages that very well may follow Brexit may result in a reduction of the incidence of Type-2 (a.k.a bad) diabetes.
Paradoxically, no. Food shortages will reduce food variety first and foremost, greatly increasing the consumption of starchy foods with high GI and decrease the uptake in fiber. This is more likely to increase the incidence of type-2 diabetes.

It's what happened in Venezuela.

Quote:
Those with Type-1 (a.k.a. good) diabetes can be cured just by touching Nigel Farage's tweed suit - such is the power of Brexit.
I'm pretty sure that's fatal, but I suppose there's more than one way to cure a disease.

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Old 12th June 2019, 11:27 PM   #2665
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The politics of UK rarely manage not to dissapoint.

Which Labour MPs dissented and ... why?

McHrozni
The dissenters were:

Quote:
Kevin Barron, Ronnie Campbell, Jim Fitzpatrick, Caroline Flint, Stephen Hepburn, Kate Hoey, John Mann and Graham Stringer.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...l-brexit-after

They look like the Labour Party's arch Brexiteers.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:33 PM   #2666
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Paradoxically, no. Food shortages will reduce food variety first and foremost, greatly increasing the consumption of starchy foods with high GI and decrease the uptake in fiber. This is more likely to increase the incidence of type-2 diabetes.

It's what happened in Venezuela.
Depends how it's done I guess. During WWII when the UK had rationing in place the overall population health improved - I'm not sure if Type 2 diabetes was specifically being monitored.

Also, as I hope the sarcastic smiley showed, I wasn't being serious.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I'm pretty sure that's fatal, but I suppose there's more than one way to cure a disease.

McHrozni
Anyone (or indeed any business) which doesn't survive the great Brexit adventure is clearly unpatriotic and will be airbrushed out of existence.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:36 PM   #2667
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Eh, easy. Legislate so the PM is obligated to do everything in his/her/its power to avoid a no deal, up to and including revoking article 50 if all other options are exhausted.

McHrozni
Can the UK still revoke article 50? I know they could until the 29th of March but now the two year period has run out are they not still in the EU solely at the whim of the remaining 27 who would have to agree to the UK remaining?
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:58 PM   #2668
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Eh, easy. Legislate so the PM is obligated to do everything in his/her/its power to avoid a no deal, up to and including revoking article 50 if all other options are exhausted.

McHrozni
"The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling last year confirmed that the UK could revoke Article 50 itself, without having to ask the other 27 EU countries for permission.

This could be done by writing a letter to the European Council, made up of EU heads of state.

The ECJ said the UK would then remain a member of the EU on the same terms - as it has now - including keeping its budget rebate.

But it did set some conditions.

The ruling said revocation should be "unequivocal and unconditional", suggesting that the UK could not simply revoke Article 50 in order to buy more time and then resubmit it at a later date."

Which says to me that revoking A50 is tantamount to choosing to remain.
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Old 13th June 2019, 12:06 AM   #2669
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
Can the UK still revoke article 50? I know they could until the 29th of March but now the two year period has run out are they not still in the EU solely at the whim of the remaining 27 who would have to agree to the UK remaining?
My source may not be 100% reliable (daughter, who did her MLb in EU Law) - yes as long as all countries agree
Edit, the same applies for any extension IIRC

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Old 13th June 2019, 12:30 AM   #2670
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Depends how it's done I guess. During WWII when the UK had rationing in place the overall population health improved - I'm not sure if Type 2 diabetes was specifically being monitored.
I know. It's a damning conviction of pre-WW2 British died, that's for sure.

Quote:
Anyone (or indeed any business) which doesn't survive the great Brexit adventure is clearly unpatriotic and will be airbrushed out of existence.
Sounds about right, yes.

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Old 13th June 2019, 12:32 AM   #2671
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
"The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling last year confirmed that the UK could revoke Article 50 itself, without having to ask the other 27 EU countries for permission.

This could be done by writing a letter to the European Council, made up of EU heads of state.

The ECJ said the UK would then remain a member of the EU on the same terms - as it has now - including keeping its budget rebate.

But it did set some conditions.

The ruling said revocation should be "unequivocal and unconditional", suggesting that the UK could not simply revoke Article 50 in order to buy more time and then resubmit it at a later date."

Which says to me that revoking A50 is tantamount to choosing to remain.
Indeed it is. Parliament would have to legislate that if the options boil to no-deal Brexit and Bremain they chose Bremain and instruct PM to act accordingly. It would be up to PM to obtain alternative solutions which would be acceptable to Parliament and EU. If he/she/it can't, there is no Brexit.

Kind of how democracy is supposed to work you know?

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Old 13th June 2019, 12:36 AM   #2672
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...l-brexit-after

They look like the Labour Party's arch Brexiteers.
Vermin. Very few Tories broke ranks too - but enough to push the law through, if Labour ranks held.

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Old 13th June 2019, 01:02 AM   #2673
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
"The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling last year confirmed that the UK could revoke Article 50 itself, without having to ask the other 27 EU countries for permission.

This could be done by writing a letter to the European Council, made up of EU heads of state.

The ECJ said the UK would then remain a member of the EU on the same terms - as it has now - including keeping its budget rebate.

But it did set some conditions.

The ruling said revocation should be "unequivocal and unconditional", suggesting that the UK could not simply revoke Article 50 in order to buy more time and then resubmit it at a later date."

Which says to me that revoking A50 is tantamount to choosing to remain.
No, think it just means that if we revoke we need to start the article 50 process again from scratch. We can't revoke then start again with a 'where did we get to' . In practice however we should do what 'vote leave' promised in their manifesto which was not to trigger Article 50 until we has agreed the future deal, which they said would include retention of free trade with the EU.
It is May that cocked up by triggering Article 50 before realising that 2 years might not be long enough to negotiate a deal so she instead decided to negotiate a temporary deal to take us from brexit to Dec 2020 with no real changes to allow time for a fully negotiated deal to take effect after that. Unfortunately she couldn't manage that after realising that 2020 might be too soon and a backstop would be required. It went downhill from there.

All we need to do to leave and make everyone happy is revoke article 50. Put the country's best talent, Johnstone, Leadsom, Gove, Farage, Rees-Mogg, Corbin on the case. When they have negotiated the deal promised

Free trade with the EU, No movement of Labour, full control over our borders, 350bn a week saving, No border checks, and no extension of the ECJ's jurisdiction to the UK, protection of workers rights. Better trade deals with the rest of the world. A seat for the UK on all the big tables.

We can trigger Article 50 and leave.
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Old 13th June 2019, 01:07 AM   #2674
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Vermin. Very few Tories broke ranks too - but enough to push the law through, if Labour ranks held.

McHrozni
.....then they wouldn't be the Labour Party. I was a party member for nearly 25 years and I got the clear impression that there is a proportion of members and MPs who are contrary just for the sake of it.

I know that the majority of MPs claim that they are not in favour of a no-deal Brexit but the fact that they're not willing to actually do anything to prevent it leads me to believe that the vast majority of Conservative MPs, and a significant minority of Labour MPs actively want it to happen.

Last edited by The Don; 13th June 2019 at 01:10 AM.
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Old 13th June 2019, 01:38 AM   #2675
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
.....then they wouldn't be the Labour Party. I was a party member for nearly 25 years and I got the clear impression that there is a proportion of members and MPs who are contrary just for the sake of it.
One of them is the current leader of the Labour party, of course.
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Old 13th June 2019, 01:46 AM   #2676
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
.....then they wouldn't be the Labour Party. I was a party member for nearly 25 years and I got the clear impression that there is a proportion of members and MPs who are contrary just for the sake of it.

I know that the majority of MPs claim that they are not in favour of a no-deal Brexit but the fact that they're not willing to actually do anything to prevent it leads me to believe that the vast majority of Conservative MPs, and a significant minority of Labour MPs actively want it to happen.
It's actually a somewhat rational position for Labour MPs to hold. Brexit is a Tory project, organized as a Tory way to resolve internal party conflict. The referendum was proposed and legislated for by a Tory governing majority, article 50 was invoked by a Tory PM and if there is a no deal Brexit it will be a Tory government overseeing the disaster.

Much like Trump, the no deal Brexit has the potential to soil the Tory brand for time immemorial, relegating them to a minor local party and banishing them from national politics forever. The new opposition from the right will come from a group splintering off the useless, corrupt remainder of what was once "the natural party of government".

If you accept the potential the potential to rule the country as the undisputed ruling party for a generation as large enough to be worth whatever damage the no deal Brexit crisis will bring then sabotaging any resolution to the issue is a rational position. Yes, it is corruption that is worth a firing squad or worse (HD'n'Q?), yes, it is horrible, but the position itself may well be rational. Until you vote against your party whip anyway.

Tory MPs? Beats me. Maybe they just really, really, really want to change careers but don't want to quit or something.

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Old 13th June 2019, 01:47 AM   #2677
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
One of them is the current so-called 'leader' of the Labour party, of course.
FTFY

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Old 13th June 2019, 01:58 AM   #2678
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's actually a somewhat rational position for Labour MPs to hold. Brexit is a Tory project, organized as a Tory way to resolve internal party conflict. The referendum was proposed and legislated for by a Tory governing majority, article 50 was invoked by a Tory PM and if there is a no deal Brexit it will be a Tory government overseeing the disaster.

Much like Trump, the no deal Brexit has the potential to soil the Tory brand for time immemorial, relegating them to a minor local party and banishing them from national politics forever. The new opposition from the right will come from a group splintering off the useless, corrupt remainder of what was once "the natural party of government".

If you accept the potential the potential to rule the country as the undisputed ruling party for a generation as large enough to be worth whatever damage the no deal Brexit crisis will bring then sabotaging any resolution to the issue is a rational position. Yes, it is corruption that is worth a firing squad or worse (HD'n'Q?), yes, it is horrible, but the position itself may well be rational. Until you vote against your party whip anyway.

Tory MPs? Beats me. Maybe they just really, really, really want to change careers but don't want to quit or something.

McHrozni
That's a logical way of looking at it, unfortunately that's not the way the British psyche and electorate seem to work

The worse the impact of Brexit and the more dire the outcome, the more likely it is that the "Blitz Spirit" will cut in and rather than losing support, the government will likely gain support and the British people, rather than rejecting a no-deal Brexit will embrace it.
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Old 13th June 2019, 02:21 AM   #2679
Samson
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
There is no leverage whatsoever. There never was any. There is none now. There won't be any in future.
It seems Britain is flouncing but left the handbag.
Do not flounce out of the party and leave your handbag behind!
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Old 13th June 2019, 02:36 AM   #2680
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My analysis is simple
A no deal Brexit is dead in the water due to numbers in parliament..
Brussels will not renegotiate the Theresa May deal Brexit.
That deal will never get the votes.
Therefore Brexit is in a state of permanent hiatus while business as usual.

This looks like modal logic 101 to me.

ETA: This looks like a huge victory for the EU federation, Britain shoots both feet, no further wagging of the finger needed to other dissident states.

Last edited by Samson; 13th June 2019 at 02:51 AM.
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