Passing Peak Trump?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by The Don

Most of the electorate don't unless prompted. I see Trump's current difficulties being forgotten in a month or so.

In a month or so he will have a cart load of new insults and lunacy for us.

[Upchurch]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

In a month or so he will have a cart load of new insults and lunacy for us.

Agreed. It isn't like he's going to settle down, focus on the election, and get serious.

[Captain_Swoop]

Plus it all chips away, wearinh down support.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy

I think that stuck. Before then I'd hear people say that Trump was just pulling a fast one on the GOP; that he didn't really believe his own hateful rhetoric. I haven't heard that much since. He really alienated a lot of the undecided.

Did he really though ?

His post-convention bounce put him past Hillary in most (all ?) polls which to me indicated that there were either still plenty of undecideds willing to swing to Trump or that a proportion of the undecideds were GOP/Trump supporters.

Sure he alienated the majority of Hispanics (but he's still pulling a non-trivial minority) and the black vote is a lost cause but he was still getting a lot of support.

[seayakin]

I'm doubtful but there is always the possibility a bombshell could be dropped with Clinton and all the issues that the opposition repeats including but not limited to the Bengazi and the email servers or something else. The key for Trump will be stop responding to every criticism no matter how small the criticism. I just don't think he can do this.

And just for clarification, I'm not Trump supporter and lament him becoming president as much as most but I have to be real and face the fact that there are serious flaws with Hillary. I also will not feel comfortable that no scandal involving Hillary will break until November 8.

[varwoche]

Originally Posted by seayakin

I'm doubtful but there is always the possibility a bombshell could be dropped with Clinton and all the issues that the opposition repeats including but not limited to the Bengazi and the email servers or something else. The key for Trump will be stop responding to every criticism no matter how small the criticism. I just don't think he can do this.

And just for clarification, I'm not Trump supporter and lament him becoming president as much as most but I have to be real and face the fact that there are serious flaws with Hillary. I also will not feel comfortable that no scandal involving Hillary will break until November 8.

For better and/or for worse, Clinton is semi inoculated by all the past scandals, real and imagined. It's become white noise.

[seayakin]

Originally Posted by varwoche

For better and/or for worse, Clinton is semi inoculated by all the past scandals, real and imagined. It's become white noise.

I did not think about the white noise. In any case, of any candidate, it is hard to imagine anything new could be brought up against Hillary given how much she has been investigated.

I'm still a nervous pessimist.

[Distracted1]

I think that as this campaign proceeds we will be seeing and hearing less and less from Mr. Trump.
The running of his campaign will be done by Pence and hirelings- who will spend all their time blasting Hillary. It may be that even Mr. Trump himself is beginning to see how repugnant he is in the eyes of the electorate- even if for his ego's sake he needs to view it as unfair press.

[Beelzebuddy]

Originally Posted by The Don

Did he really though ?

His post-convention bounce put him past Hillary in most (all ?) polls which to me indicated that there were either still plenty of undecideds willing to swing to Trump or that a proportion of the undecideds were GOP/Trump supporters.

Sure he alienated the majority of Hispanics (but he's still pulling a non-trivial minority) and the black vote is a lost cause but he was still getting a lot of support.

I don't put much stock in polls; I prefer to stick with damned lies. The rhetoric noticeably died down, or changed, in response to the judge debacle. I stopped hearing about how it was all an act.

The "Bernie or Bust" crowd used to be "Bernie or Trump," remember that? It wasn't people trying to throw the election, the idea was that if the outsider with the good ideas couldn't win, better to go with the complete unknown who probably wouldn't be terrible, than the face of the status quo. But then he goes full racist at the next minor public official who slights him, and the status quo started looking a whole lot better.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by seayakin

I did not think about the white noise. In any case, of any candidate, it is hard to imagine anything new could be brought up against Hillary given how much she has been investigated.

I'm still a nervous pessimist.

In this post-factual age, it doesn't even need to have any kind of basis in fact.

A few days before the election, make it known that Hillary and/or Bill are suspected of the worst kinds of crimes against children. Hit the news cycle hard.

If the Democratic Party rush to defend the Clintons then that acknowledges the claims, if not then why aren't they being defended.

Release it in the most disreputable right wing sites, report on the "claims" on FOX news with a huge exclusive (staying just the right side of the libel laws) which will compel the other networks to report on it too.

[acbytesla]

Originally Posted by The Don

In this post-factual age, it doesn't even need to have any kind of basis in fact.

A few days before the election, make it known that Hillary and/or Bill are suspected of the worst kinds of crimes against children. Hit the news cycle hard.

If the Democratic Party rush to defend the Clintons then that acknowledges the claims, if not then why aren't they being defended.

Release it in the most disreputable right wing sites, report on the "claims" on FOX news with a huge exclusive (staying just the right side of the libel laws) which will compel the other networks to report on it too.

I don't think so. You can only go to that well so often. Keep in mind that the Clintons over the years have been accused of incredibly outrageous things. For years, there was a website called the Clinton body count where they were accused of killing more than 90 people including their friends and I think Elvis.

The public has grown so accustomed to hearing phoney outrageous accusations, their reaction will be. Suuuure and roll their eyes.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by acbytesla

I don't think so. You can only go to that well so often. Keep in mind that the Clintons over the years have been accused of incredibly outrageous things. For years, there was a website called the Clinton body count where they were accused of killing more than 90 people including their friends and I think Elvis.

The public has grown so accustomed to hearing phoney outrageous accusations, their reaction will be. Suuuure and roll their eyes.

Trump may only need 1 or 2 percent to turn out to vote who weren't going to or to switch.........

Timed right I think this could just get him across the line...

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

It may be that even Mr. Trump himself is beginning to see how repugnant he is in the eyes of the electorate- even if for his ego's sake he needs to view it as unfair press.

I think you are crediting him with more awareness than he is capable of.


Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[NoahFence]

Originally Posted by The Don

Trump may only need 1 or 2 percent to turn out to vote who weren't going to or to switch.........

Timed right I think this could just get him across the line...

I refuse to believe that it's this close. He's now added vets and active military to the list of people he's offended. He won't win women, won't win minorities, and won't win sane white men. Hell, at this rate he may not even win INsane white men. Only the hateful, ignorant P.O.S. that is his base.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I think the Khan scandle has finally caused the Teflon to come off of Trump.

Evidence? (please, please have evidence!)

[acbytesla]

Originally Posted by The Don

Trump may only need 1 or 2 percent to turn out to vote who weren't going to or to switch.........

Timed right I think this could just get him across the line...

No, he needs a hell of a lot more than that. It won't come down to 2 points. "Crazy" has a limited shelf life and Trump's way beyond his expiration date.

[plague311]

Originally Posted by Argumemnon

Evidence? (please, please have evidence!)

Polls are sketchy, obviously, but the fivethirtyeight website had them next to each other last week. This week it's quite different.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by applecorped

Has it happened yet?

We passed peak Trump at the Democratic Convention. I thought we had a rats jumping the ship thread but couldn't find it so I'll just put this here:

Why This Republican Created a PAC to Help Elect Hillary Clinton

Quote:

Snyder argues that the world is scary, and even scarier with Trump at the helm. As Russia and China become increasingly militarized, and ISIS and North Korea threaten American national security, the prospect of a Trump presidency could be an epic disaster, he argues.

“There are real possibilities out there that could lead to World War III,” he says. “And you gotta ask: who should be at the desk of the commander in chief? It shouldn’t be Donald Trump.”

On my PBS radio station this morning when asked about all of Clinton's negatives, he said it was a result of decades of partisan attacks and most of it was untrue.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Don

... I see Trump's current difficulties being forgotten in a month or so.

You forget his yuuge personality flaw, he can't help attacking anyone who insults him. The Clinton camp isn't stupid. They know how to trigger his disorder.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Don

I hope you're right but I think that once the dust has settled, the Republican Party core base will decide that they will vote, that they cannot vote for Hillary or a third party candidate and that they will vote the GOP ticket no matter how unappealing the Presidential candidate is.

But how big is that hard core? And how much more of the edge is going to crumble off?

Trump may be on the teleprompter for a day or so, it is unlikely to last.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Don

Did he really though ?

His post-convention bounce put him past Hillary in most (all ?) polls which to me indicated that there were either still plenty of undecideds willing to swing to Trump or that a proportion of the undecideds were GOP/Trump supporters.

Sure he alienated the majority of Hispanics (but he's still pulling a non-trivial minority) and the black vote is a lost cause but he was still getting a lot of support.

He topped Clinton in the polls for all of 4 days.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

I think that as this campaign proceeds we will be seeing and hearing less and less from Mr. Trump.
The running of his campaign will be done by Pence and hirelings- who will spend all their time blasting Hillary. It may be that even Mr. Trump himself is beginning to see how repugnant he is in the eyes of the electorate- even if for his ego's sake he needs to view it as unfair press.

You underestimate his pathologic need to be in the spotlight.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Argumemnon

Evidence? (please, please have evidence!)

Open your ears and eyes, the evidence saturates the polls, the media, Republicans standing up against Trump...

When have we last had an election where the GOP wasn't unified? It's their stock and trade. It's how they have so effectively blocked the Democrats at every step.

Now there are dozens of leading mainstream Republicans publicly denouncing Trump.

[Foolmewunz]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

You underestimate his pathologic need to be in the spotlight.

And the fanaticism of his core voter base who need to get their daily dose of Donald Urinates on a New Victim. If he's out of the spotlight his "Undecideds" might go up, but his base might go back to the mother ship and re-enter cryogenic sleep for the next thousand years.

[dudalb]

Now almost all the Politcal Commentators are saying that the Khan controversy has hurt Trump in a way the others have not,and the damage might be permanent.

[Distracted1]

Originally Posted by Foolmewunz

And the fanaticism of his core voter base who need to get their daily dose of Donald Urinates on a New Victim. If he's out of the spotlight his "Undecideds" might go up, but his base might go back to the mother ship and re-enter cryogenic sleep for the next thousand years.

If his campaign can manage to get him out of the spotlight (and there is still plenty of time left in this race- for peoples' memories to fail, and for outside events to drum up fear) they will then proceed to go full-tilt on a Hillary Clinton smear campaign.

They would be doing that already if their candidate wasn't making such an unbelievably public buffoon of himself.

Someone needs only convince Mr. Trump that he will have a much sweeter revenge once he is in charge, and get him to shut his mouth for 3 months. There is still a tremendous amount of Hillary-hate to be tapped.

[Stacko]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

If his campaign can manage to get him out of the spotlight (and there is still plenty of time left in this race- for peoples' memories to fail, and for outside events to drum up fear) they will then proceed to go full-tilt on a Hillary Clinton smear campaign.

They would be doing that already if their candidate wasn't making such an unbelievably public buffoon of himself.

Someone needs only convince Mr. Trump that he will have a much sweeter revenge once he is in charge, and get him to shut his mouth for 3 months. There is still a tremendous amount of Hillary-hate to be tapped.

Harambe has a better chance of winning the election than Donald willfully keeping himself out of the news.

[Cleon]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Now almost all the Politcal Commentators are saying that the Khan controversy has hurt Trump in a way the others have not,and the damage might be permanent.

I put the "analyses" of political commentators in the same bucket as economists, stock market analysts, and astrologers.

I've seen too many "could this be what sinks Trump" stories over the past six months. I'll believe it when I see it.

[JoeB]

Originally Posted by Stacko

Harambe has a better chance of winning the election than Donald willfully keeping himself out of the news.

PPP did have him polling ahead of Jill Stein.

[Armitage72]

Originally Posted by NoahFence

I refuse to believe that it's this close. He's now added vets and active military to the list of people he's offended. He won't win women, won't win minorities, and won't win sane white men. Hell, at this rate he may not even win INsane white men. Only the hateful, ignorant P.O.S. that is his base.

He also threw a group of AARP members out of his recent rally because they were conducting a silent protest. A Republican candidate who sufficiently alienates senior citizens is all but dead in the water.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by The Don

I hope you're right but I think that once the dust has settled, the Republican Party core base will decide that they will vote, that they cannot vote for Hillary or a third party candidate and that they will vote the GOP ticket no matter how unappealing the Presidential candidate is.

Except the opposite is happening:

Quote:

Republicans not voting for Mr Trump
◾Barbara Bush, former first lady
◾Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, 2016 presidential candidate
◾William Cohen, former secretary of defence
◾Jeff Flake, Arizona senator
◾Lindsey Graham, South Carolina senator, 2016 presidential candidate
◾Larry Hogan, Maryland governor
◾John Kasich, Ohio governor, 2016 presidential candidate
◾Mark Kirk, Illinois senator
◾Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, 2012 Republican presidential nominee
◾Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Florida congresswoman
◾Ben Sasse, Nebraska senator

Republicans voting for Mrs Clinton
◾Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state
◾Hank Paulson, former treasury secretary
◾Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser
◾Richard Hanna, New York congressman
◾Meg Whitman, party donor and fundraiser

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016

These are dyed in the wool Republicans who have chosen to go public with the fact they won't support Trump. And doesn't even address all those swing voters who will ultimately decide the election. Trump got a massive amount of luck in the primaries. The Republican establishment didn't take him seriously soon enough and by the time they did they couldn't afford to alienate his support base. Now he's in a fight where all the big guns he needs to come out and act as his attack dogs in going after Clinton are either deserting or staying as far from Trump as they can.

Originally Posted by Distracted1

I think that as this campaign proceeds we will be seeing and hearing less and less from Mr. Trump.
The running of his campaign will be done by Pence and hirelings- who will spend all their time blasting Hillary. It may be that even Mr. Trump himself is beginning to see how repugnant he is in the eyes of the electorate- even if for his ego's sake he needs to view it as unfair press.

For that to work he needs some party heavyweight prepared to go out and be Trump's surrogate. Most of the obvious candidates are on that list I posted above. Plus the idea that Trump is going to let himself be muzzled for more than a few days is unlikely in the extreme. It was just barely possible in the stage-managed conditions of the Convention, but since it finished he seems to have been making up for lost time with lies and insults.

[acbytesla]

While Trump tries to win swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia where he trails in all He now faces a challenge in more traditional Republican states like Arizona and Utah where his lead is small and Georgia is now a tie.

And Trump hasn't the resources or organization of a a normal Republican candidate to fight this battle. He brags about receiving 36 million dollars in donations in July. A month where Romney pulled in 100 million.

And donors are turning their backs on him. Republican in there own races across the country don't want alienate his voters but still don't want to be associated with Trump.

[dudalb]

I am betting a number of big GOP donors are "Splitting Their Ticket"....Donating to CLinton because they know Donald would crash the economy with this stupid policies,and then donating to GOP congressional candidate to counterbalance.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Except the opposite is happening:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016

These are dyed in the wool Republicans who have chosen to go public with the fact they won't support Trump. And doesn't even address all those swing voters who will ultimately decide the election. Trump got a massive amount of luck in the primaries. The Republican establishment didn't take him seriously soon enough and by the time they did they couldn't afford to alienate his support base. Now he's in a fight where all the big guns he needs to come out and act as his attack dogs in going after Clinton are either deserting or staying as far from Trump as they can.


For that to work he needs some party heavyweight prepared to go out and be Trump's surrogate. Most of the obvious candidates are on that list I posted above. Plus the idea that Trump is going to let himself be muzzled for more than a few days is unlikely in the extreme. It was just barely possible in the stage-managed conditions of the Convention, but since it finished he seems to have been making up for lost time with lies and insults.

And even if you were a GOP heavyweight who wanted to support the ticket,would you risk putting your rep on the line to be Trump's surrogate,knowing he could undo all your work and make you look stupid with one tweet?

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

If his campaign can manage to get him out of the spotlight (and there is still plenty of time left in this race- for peoples' memories to fail, and for outside events to drum up fear) they will then proceed to go full-tilt on a Hillary Clinton smear campaign.

They would be doing that already if their candidate wasn't making such an unbelievably public buffoon of himself.

Someone needs only convince Mr. Trump that he will have a much sweeter revenge once he is in charge, and get him to shut his mouth for 3 months. There is still a tremendous amount of Hillary-hate to be tapped.

While your idea sounds good on paper, it is impossible to implement.

For well over a year there have not been 36 consecutive hours that Trump didn't provide ample evidence that he is constitutionally incapable of keeping his mouth shut. There have been many times when the best play was to keep silent and Trump blew each and every one. He has to have the last word and he has an insane compulsion to convince everyone that he is right. This guy won't even let the RNC get between him and his Twitter account; he has to have a way to get out his message that he is right about everything.

As others have pointed out, it is so simple to push his buttons that the left could send out a Tweet saying, "I am glad Trump admitted that he was wrong to mock the handicapped reporter," and Trump would swallow the bait and start publicly saying that it was OK to do those arm gestures. Any rational candidate would ignore any mention of the issue and keep his head down until it faded again. Trump is no ordinary candidate. He can't let things go. He can't comprehend the idea that sometimes losing a battle allows one to win the war. He has to win every battle and every skirmish.

[Distracted1]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While your idea sounds good on paper, it is impossible to implement.

For well over a year there have not been 36 consecutive hours that Trump didn't provide ample evidence that he is constitutionally incapable of keeping his mouth shut. There have been many times when the best play was to keep silent and Trump blew each and every one. He has to have the last word and he has an insane compulsion to convince everyone that he is right. This guy won't even let the RNC get between him and his Twitter account; he has to have a way to get out his message that he is right about everything.

As others have pointed out, it is so simple to push his buttons that the left could send out a Tweet saying, "I am glad Trump admitted that he was wrong to mock the handicapped reporter," and Trump would swallow the bait and start publicly saying that it was OK to do those arm gestures. Any rational candidate would ignore any mention of the issue and keep his head down until it faded again. Trump is no ordinary candidate. He can't let things go. He can't comprehend the idea that sometimes losing a battle allows one to win the war. He has to win every battle and every skirmish.

And for well over a year Trumps' fortunes have been on the rise.
Why would he have changed a thing over the last year as he won primaries, and climbed in the polls?
Now his campaign is faced with a downturn, is it entirely unreasonable to expect that the campaign was waiting to get negative results before altering strategy? Hillarys' negatives are still outrageously high, after all, and the public has a short memory.

[acbytesla]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

And for well over a year Trumps' fortunes have been on the rise.
Why would he have changed a thing over the last year as he won primaries, and climbed in the polls?
Now his campaign is faced with a downturn, is it entirely unreasonable to expect that the campaign was waiting to get negative results before altering strategy? Hillarys' negatives are still outrageously high, after all, and the public has a short memory.

It really isn't that short. And there are some things the people don't forget. They likely will remember Hillary's email scandal come November, but most voters (not hard core Republicans) will not remember it as being significant. They won't forget the Khans and Trump attacking them or his idea of sacrifices. Right now, the Clinton campaign is hardly discussing policy at all. It's all about temperament and the message is working. Trump's need to battle every slight is being hammered home.

The most effective campaign ad so far this year is Trump mocking a disabled reporter. I guarantee the Clinton campaign is creating ads featuring the Khans and Trump'so callous response.

Some things cannot be undone. I believe this is one of them. I've been wrong before, but I can't see how Donald will be able to broaden his appeal. He'll continue to draw big crowds, but he's only singing to the choir.

[applecorped]

Shouldn't this election be a blow out by Hillary?

[Stacko]

Originally Posted by acbytesla

The most effective campaign ad so far this year is Trump mocking a disabled reporter. I guarantee the Clinton campaign is creating ads featuring the Khans and Trump'so callous response.

They're taking advantage of his need to hit back with that ad as it also features his comments on Megyn Kelly from the debates. Guess what he'd been re-litigating at every rally? Those incidents which puts them back in the news. It interesting that he insists on helping them get their message out. Wait to the ads featuring his attacks on the Khans start airing.

[Jrrarglblarg]

Originally Posted by applecorped

Shouldn't this election be a blow out by Hillary?

One would certainly think so. But then most sane and politically astute observers were expecting Herself to be up against Kasich/Cruz or something, which would be a decent horse race with exciting photo finish and everything.

At this point we're all shrugging in bafflement.