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Old 21st January 2023, 11:07 AM   #2001
jeremyp
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
If that's what it takes...
The Soviet Union lost more than an order of magnitude more than a million in WW2 and Stalin was never threatened. That said, WW2 was definitely viewed as an existential crisis by Russia.
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Old 21st January 2023, 12:11 PM   #2002
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
The Soviet Union lost more than an order of magnitude more than a million in WW2 and Stalin was never threatened. That said, WW2 was definitely viewed as an existential crisis by Russia.
But Stalin did have a FAR tighter control over his nation than Putin and at that time the Soviet Union was the victim of the attack, not the perpetrator and Nazi Germany committed genocide, whereas in this case again Russia is the perpetrator, so the situation is quite different.
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Old 21st January 2023, 12:20 PM   #2003
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Watching the news... We are just now designating Wagner as a terrorist group to prevent them from acquiring arms. Without the supplier being sanctioned well as anyways. Why was this done like 11 months ago??
"transnational criminal organization" https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/20/p...oup/index.html

Dunno what the specific difference is.
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Old 21st January 2023, 12:28 PM   #2004
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
But Stalin did have a FAR tighter control over his nation than Putin and at that time the Soviet Union was the victim of the attack, not the perpetrator and Nazi Germany committed genocide, whereas in this case again Russia is the perpetrator, so the situation is quite different.
Depends how well Putin sells it to the Russian population:

"There we were, innocently minding our own business, when the big bad Evil West expanded their NATO Ukraino-nazi borders eastward. They threatened Moscow itself! One more gay pride parade and Russia would cease to exist! We had to fight back to maintain our benevolent mysogyny, racism, homophobia, etc. The only humane thing to do was to attack, beat and rape other people.

So you see, it's all defence and Russia is innocent. Fight for the homeland! Your life is at stake!"
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Old 21st January 2023, 12:57 PM   #2005
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Depends how well Putin sells it to the Russian population:

"There we were, innocently minding our own business, when the big bad Evil West expanded their NATO Ukraino-nazi borders eastward. They threatened Moscow itself! One more gay pride parade and Russia would cease to exist! We had to fight back to maintain our benevolent mysogyny, racism, homophobia, etc. The only humane thing to do was to attack, beat and rape other people.

So you see, it's all defence and Russia is innocent. Fight for the homeland! Your life is at stake!"
Oh true, but the presence of mobile phones, the internet etc makes that narrative a lot harder to maintain.
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Old 21st January 2023, 01:09 PM   #2006
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Oh true, but the presence of mobile phones, the internet etc makes that narrative a lot harder to maintain.
Nevertheless, it seems to work. It is harder to pretend that the Russian army is competent, and that they are winning, but at least Putin can point out that the old enemy NATO is behind the defeat and stalemate - which is partly true.
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Old 21st January 2023, 01:51 PM   #2007
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
TGZ talked about Germany not sending Leopards because they don't have any to spare.
That is not actually what he talked about. He talked about a claim that Germany's hesitance is born out of pro-fascism, and argued that the contrary is more like it: That Germany runs a strategy of having the weakest possible military that is juuust enough to defend, but not enough to attack - to avoid a new rise of militarism.
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Old 21st January 2023, 01:57 PM   #2008
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
People may look to buy weapons from sellers who impose fewer restrictions on the purchase....
ALL weapon exporting countries impose such restrictions, specifically ALL in the West.
Or imagine if, say, Switzerland bought a hundred F-35s and then went on to give them to, say, Russia.
You know, for argument's sake.
Surely you would very much advocate for imposing very strict restrictions against such moves - wouldn't you? And I'd agree very much with you.

So Germany retaining the right to impose restrictions on customers passing on German-made gear is - standard and correct.

Look: Germany has ordered F-35s for themselves. Suppose the first batch arrives today, and tomorrow, Germany announced and intention to pass them on to Ukraine. How would the US react? How would you react?
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Old 21st January 2023, 02:11 PM   #2009
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
That is not actually what he talked about. He talked about a claim that Germany's hesitance is born out of pro-fascism, and argued that the contrary is more like it: That Germany runs a strategy of having the weakest possible military that is juuust enough to defend, but not enough to attack - to avoid a new rise of militarism.
Perhaps some confusion may lie in larger context.

The general relevant issue that had been discussed was that Germany is preventing *other* countries from passing their Leopard tanks to Ukraine. That's fairly certainly what inspired dudalb's Germany bashing. TGZ's defense in response to dudalb's bashing was thus off the mark - probably something of a knee jerk after having seen some old criticisms floating about a while ago about Germany not pulling their weight in military supply for Ukraine. However true it could be is of little relevance when it's not addressing the topic actually in question. theprestige's gentle original correction about what issue was actually at hand was not amiss and it was a valid response.

As for your response here, it seems like little other than a quibble, given -

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The German military very little to spare (apart from the DDR leftovers they already sent)
Yes, theprestige didn't repeat TGZ's entire post. What he actually said still got to the essence of the the issue at hand, which is that TGZ was making a defense for a complaint that wasn't actually being made here.
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Old 21st January 2023, 02:31 PM   #2010
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
ALL weapon exporting countries impose such restrictions, specifically ALL in the West.
Or imagine if, say, Switzerland bought a hundred F-35s and then went on to give them to, say, Russia.
You know, for argument's sake.
Surely you would very much advocate for imposing very strict restrictions against such moves - wouldn't you? And I'd agree very much with you.

So Germany retaining the right to impose restrictions on customers passing on German-made gear is - standard and correct.

Look: Germany has ordered F-35s for themselves. Suppose the first batch arrives today, and tomorrow, Germany announced and intention to pass them on to Ukraine. How would the US react? How would you react?
Yes yes, re-export restrictions are normal and acceptable.

But re-export is not outright banned, it can be allowed. And it's the specific decision being made that's questionable to most.

Germany allowing Poland to send tanks to Ukraine is something pretty much everyone (except Russia and vassels) would like to see.
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Old 21st January 2023, 03:34 PM   #2011
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Originally Posted by pzkpfw View Post
Yes yes, re-export restrictions are normal and acceptable.

But re-export is not outright banned, it can be allowed. And it's the specific decision being made that's questionable to most.

Germany allowing Poland to send tanks to Ukraine is something pretty much everyone (except Russia and vassels) would like to see.
I certainly do not want to see it.

Actually, I believe that sending just one rifle to Ukraine is already too much.

Why?

Not because I deny that Ukraine was attacked by Russia in February 2022 (I don't deny it).

I don't want to see more weapons sent to Ukraine because Ukraine's "peace plan" seems unrealistic to me, and because Ukraine doesn't seem to adhere to the principle of self-determination of peoples.

In other words, Ukraine considers for example Crimea as its "property" and doesn't care about what the Crimeans really think.

I, on the other hand, as a citizen of Belgium, believe that Crimea belongs primarily to the Crimeans (and especially those who have been living there for a long time, not those who moved in recently from Moscow).

This is a fundamentally different point of view.

I believe Zelensky should spend less time calling the White House, and more time calling the Kremlin, in order to negotiate new, updated and modernized borders for Ukraine.

Last edited by Michel H; 21st January 2023 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 21st January 2023, 04:41 PM   #2012
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The borders of Ukraine just need to be enforced and respected by the filthy orcs. All they have to do is go home and there is no war. Not a single more orc needs to die in Ukraine if they just go home. It's easy. There is no reason to change the 2013 borders.

You obviously don't care what the people of Crimea think because you'd sell them out to orc rule based on a shabby lie and fake vote.

As for tanks, Germany should allow Poland and other nations to export Leopards tanks to Ukraine. Between those tanks, what France is providing and our IFVs, Ukraine could cut through orc formations and expel the invaders from ALL of their territory.
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Old 21st January 2023, 04:59 PM   #2013
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
In other words, Ukraine considers for example Crimea as its "property" and doesn't care about what the Crimeans really think.

I, on the other hand, as a citizen of Belgium, believe that Crimea belongs primarily to the Crimeans (and especially those who have been living there for a long time, not those who moved in recently from Moscow).
Cheap rationalizations that ignore history. That is all you have.

Russia, under the empire, the Soviet Union, and now under Putin, has abused the population of Crimea every time they had control of it. A lot of that is done by suppression of the Tartar population. It starts with deportation then follows with many other abuses. If you think the Tartars supported any Russian referendum then you are lying to yourself.

Russia is willing to kill all of them if that it what it takes to make sure they have support from Crimea.

Examples in the links. Starting with the Soviet deportations and following with modern abuse.

https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/articles/71

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/14/...rs-intensifies
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Old 21st January 2023, 06:29 PM   #2014
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
That is not actually what he talked about. He talked about a claim that Germany's hesitance is born out of pro-fascism, and argued that the contrary is more like it: That Germany runs a strategy of having the weakest possible military that is juuust enough to defend, but not enough to attack - to avoid a new rise of militarism.
I think you misread TGZ's post, and my own.
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Old 21st January 2023, 06:32 PM   #2015
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
ALL weapon exporting countries impose such restrictions, specifically ALL in the West.
Or imagine if, say, Switzerland bought a hundred F-35s and then went on to give them to, say, Russia.
You know, for argument's sake.
Surely you would very much advocate for imposing very strict restrictions against such moves - wouldn't you? And I'd agree very much with you.

So Germany retaining the right to impose restrictions on customers passing on German-made gear is - standard and correct.

Look: Germany has ordered F-35s for themselves. Suppose the first batch arrives today, and tomorrow, Germany announced and intention to pass them on to Ukraine. How would the US react? How would you react?
You're equating giving F-35s to Russia with giving Leopards to Ukraine. Just how magical are these German tanks? Why is Germany so concerned about sharing them with Ukraine?
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Old 21st January 2023, 06:33 PM   #2016
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Old 22nd January 2023, 07:22 AM   #2017
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Looks like Putin is getting nervous.

Three Pantsir-S1 air defense systems have been installed on buildings around the Kremlin (mil.in.ua)
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The OSINT analyst with a Twitter account under the nickname Evergreen Intel outlined the layout of Pantsir-S1 SAM deployment, which was reported over the past week. It demonstrates that the fire sectors of 30-mm autocannons of all three systems (up to 4 km) cover the Kremlin. The headquarters of the Russian authorities is actually located in the very center of the coverage zone, which was created in downtown Moscow.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 08:48 AM   #2018
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1615719162155778052

This is some real political progress. Serbia recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine.

I do agree though that Crimean Tartars should not stage demonstrations. Knives in the throats of drunk orcs would bring about their goals far more efficiently. Orcs don't understand protests. They do understand bleeding out.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 10:52 AM   #2019
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You're equating giving F-35s to Russia with giving Leopards to Ukraine. Just how magical are these German tanks? Why is Germany so concerned about sharing them with Ukraine?
No he wasn't. He was merely providing an example to explain one reason why countries are reluctant to let their customers sell their weapons on. The laws exist for good reasons and, even though the Leopard 2 is not an F35, it is a modern capable tank and you don't want it falling into the hands of your enemies or other people that might be politically problematic.

That said, I don't know why Germany is dragging its feet over this one. Perhaps they think they might be able to go back to using Russian gas if they don't help Ukraine too much. Perhaps they think a future Ukraine government might be more sympathetic to Russia than the current one.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 01:11 PM   #2020
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The leopard tank is an export model as well as a domestic top model. It takes time on the factory floors to get them prepared and built to export specs ( less than top line domestic standards) and ship them. This includes electronic gadgets as well as amour specs and drivetrain details.
It's not like they just take the vehicles off a lot on some base somewhere from a standing unit. That can and does happen with older models at times but weapons and comm gear won't always be included in the units.

The political mess is another issue to delay. Why make units not to domestic specs if there is a chance they can't be shipped? That a lot of money not well spent.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 01:50 PM   #2021
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
No he wasn't.
It was literally the comparison he made. And then failed to justify.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 01:59 PM   #2022
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It was literally the comparison he made. And then failed to justify.
It was a sound analogy he made to illustrate the point that it's not unreasonable for weapons systems to be sold with restrictions on who they can be sold on to.

Just because none of us can see a good reason to block Polish Leopards from going to Ukraine does not mean such contracts are a bad idea.

If you really believe his point was the Leopard 2 is as advanced as the F35 then you're wrong to the extent you sound like someone being deliberately wrong so as to be obtuse.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 03:32 PM   #2023
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
It was a sound analogy he made to illustrate the point that it's not unreasonable for weapons systems to be sold with restrictions on who they can be sold on to.

Just because none of us can see a good reason to block Polish Leopards from going to Ukraine does not mean such contracts are a bad idea.

If you really believe his point was the Leopard 2 is as advanced as the F35 then you're wrong to the extent you sound like someone being deliberately wrong so as to be obtuse.
My opinions on appeals to analogy are well known. If F-35s are alleged to be analogous to export-edition Leopard 2s, I want to see the receipts. I'm not going to blindly accept Oystein's argument at face value.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 04:29 PM   #2024
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
My opinions on appeals to analogy are well known. If F-35s are alleged to be analogous to export-edition Leopard 2s, I want to see the receipts. I'm not going to blindly accept Oystein's argument at face value.
Weapon system A is analogous to weapon system B in that they are both weapon systems, and both their sellers do not want buyers to donate them to China or North Korea or Russia or Iran or etc.

It's not a matter of whether A and B are equally advanced, nor if they cost the same, nor if they are painted the same colour.
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Old 22nd January 2023, 05:20 PM   #2025
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I'm about 20% into this Perun video, How Politics Destroys Armies. He's really good. I wish his stuff wasn't so dang long, but then it wouldn't be as good!
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Old 22nd January 2023, 10:44 PM   #2026
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1615719162155778052

This is some real political progress. Serbia recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine.
I don't think so. I think this has been Serbia's position the entire time, considering that Putin has cited the Kosovo precedent for the Donbass. If they were to support Russia here then they'd undermine their case that Kosovo should not be independent.

It's nice that they outright said it at least.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 05:40 AM   #2027
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It was literally the comparison he made. And then failed to justify.
Making a comparison is not the same as saying "they are the same".

Anyway, they are the same in one respect. The F35 is a modern weapon of war. The Leopard 2 is a modern weapon of war. In neither case do you want them to fall into the hands of your enemies.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 05:43 AM   #2028
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
My opinions on appeals to analogy are well known. If F-35s are alleged to be analogous to export-edition Leopard 2s, I want to see the receipts. I'm not going to blindly accept Oystein's argument at face value.
It wasn't an appeal to analogy. It was an analogy to illustrate a particular point - to help you understand why countries put these restrictions in their arms contracts.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 08:51 AM   #2029
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Making a comparison is not the same as saying "they are the same".
It is when the point of the comparison is to elicit the same agreement for both sides of the comparison. Which is what Oystein was trying to do.

Quote:
Anyway, they are the same in one respect. The F35 is a modern weapon of war. The Leopard 2 is a modern weapon of war. In neither case do you want them to fall into the hands of your enemies.
Q.E.D.

Germany has already exported Leopards. Does it not want those Leopards to ever actually see combat? Maybe they should write that into their purchase agreements: "Poland is allowed to buy Leopards, so long as they promise to never put them in harm's way or risk their capture on the field of battle."

Which, in the case of the F-35, might almost be understandable. It has very advanced materials and avionics. Is the Leopard analogous in this way? Is its composite armor the same tier of technical secret as the F-35's radar-absorbent materials? Is its sensor fusion and fire control systems integration on par with the F-35's?
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Old 23rd January 2023, 09:19 AM   #2030
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It is when the point of the comparison is to elicit the same agreement for both sides of the comparison. Which is what Oystein was trying to do.


Q.E.D.

Germany has already exported Leopards. Does it not want those Leopards to ever actually see combat? Maybe they should write that into their purchase agreements: "Poland is allowed to buy Leopards, so long as they promise to never put them in harm's way or risk their capture on the field of battle."

Which, in the case of the F-35, might almost be understandable. It has very advanced materials and avionics. Is the Leopard analogous in this way? Is its composite armor the same tier of technical secret as the F-35's radar-absorbent materials? Is its sensor fusion and fire control systems integration on par with the F-35's?
Are you arguing that export restrictions can only apply to the most advanced weapons system anywhere in the world? That the existence of the F35 means Leopard 2 export restrictions are now null and void? When something newer and shinier comes along, F35's export restrictions will in turn also be voided?
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Old 23rd January 2023, 10:51 AM   #2031
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Nice piece here on why Putin isn't turning the meat grinder off anytime soon:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ssia-president

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Even if Ukraine chases every last Russian soldier from its land, Russiaís aggression will not end. Russia will continue to make claims to Ukraineís territory, and will back them up with threats, intermittent missile launches and border skirmishes. There is no such thing as a decisive victory for the defender.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 02:15 PM   #2032
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Many people, in Ukraine, and among its European and American supporters, have a certain mentality according to which Moscow must be defeated and humiliated, and the more Russia is hurt, economically, financially and militarily, the better. For president Zelensky, this is kind of an obsession.
Russia can only be hurt and humiliated as much as they allow themselves to. The war could end immediately if they chose to withdraw.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 02:26 PM   #2033
Michel H
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
Russia can only be hurt and humiliated as much as they allow themselves to. The war could end immediately if they chose to withdraw.
But then you would have people in Donetsk (for example) unhappy because they don't like the Ukrainian rule, the language law and so on, with a strong likelihood of the civil war starting again.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 02:47 PM   #2034
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Meanwhile, Dipolotmatic relastions between Russia and several Eastern European countires seem to be cratering and the Russian Foregin Minister just made a pretty scary speech declaring the Nato is de facto at war with Russia.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 03:11 PM   #2035
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
But then you would have people in Donetsk (for example) unhappy because they don't like the Ukrainian rule, the language law and so on, with a strong likelihood of the civil war starting again.
Now there is a rational reason for Russians to carry on killing Ukrainian civilians. Don't want people to be unhappy.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 03:50 PM   #2036
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Now there is a rational reason for Russians to carry on killing Ukrainian civilians. Don't want people to be unhappy.
I am beginning to think we are the victms of a truly massive troll.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 06:34 PM   #2037
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/polit...ine/index.html

Just what you'd expect form the orcs. Bombing embassies. The orcs have no bottom to their depravity.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 06:39 PM   #2038
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/polit...ine/index.html

Just what you'd expect form the orcs. Bombing embassies. The orcs have no bottom to their depravity.
If this can be proven, this is serious crap. It amounts to a direct assualt on a NATO member.
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Old 23rd January 2023, 08:00 PM   #2039
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
But then you would have people in Donetsk (for example) unhappy because they don't like the Ukrainian rule, the language law and so on, with a strong likelihood of the civil war starting again.
Then they can leave and go to live in Russia, if they are so fond of it. Obviously Ukraine is not the right place for them.

What's keeping them there?

They want to be ruled by Russia, fine. Leave.
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Old 24th January 2023, 01:10 AM   #2040
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It is when the point of the comparison is to elicit the same agreement for both sides of the comparison. Which is what Oystein was trying to do.
They just have to have some characteristics in common. . They donít need to be identical.

Quote:
Q.E.D.

Germany has already exported Leopards. Does it not want those Leopards to ever actually see combat? Maybe they should write that into their purchase agreements: "Poland is allowed to buy Leopards, so long as they promise to never put them in harm's way or risk their capture on the field of battle."

Which, in the case of the F-35, might almost be understandable. It has very advanced materials and avionics. Is the Leopard analogous in this way? Is its composite armor the same tier of technical secret as the F-35's radar-absorbent materials? Is its sensor fusion and fire control systems integration on par with the F-35's?
The USA has already exported F35s. Does it not want those F35s to see combat?

And yes, the Leopard 2 has advanced armour and electronics, certainly more advanced than the Russian tanks Ukraine is facing. Thatís why Ukraine wants it so much.

Thatís not the point of the restrictions though. The point is to stop your customer from selling or giving the weapons to your enemies to equip themselves with.
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