Covid-19, the Territory Anomaly

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

After hammering down, but not eliminating, the virus, Europe reopened schools, colleges, bars, theaters etc., people had to go back to the office and stop working from home, public transport started filling up.

Yeah, the pubs and clubs are the big factor, as South Korea showed.

It was another example of the "phony war" period I was pointing out early on. Another factor is people gathering inside rather than out.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

I'm sure that schools (and probably kindergartens, too) are the main drivers of the infection.

Incorrect, and proven to be incorrect.

School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease, and people are vastly more likely to catch Covid from someone other than a kid. I've posted several reliable studies on it if you want to go back and check.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Yeah, the pubs and clubs are the big factor, as South Korea showed.

It was another example of the "phony war" period I was pointing out early on. Another factor is people gathering inside rather than out.



Incorrect, and proven to be incorrect.

School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease, and people are vastly more likely to catch Covid from someone other than a kid. I've posted several reliable studies on it if you want to go back and check.

The outbreak in Melbourne yesterday was caused by a child under 12.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by lionking

The outbreak in Melbourne yesterday was caused by a child under 12.

And your point is?

I said: School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease.

I didn't say it doesn't happen, because it obviously does, but they're a far lower risk than adults. That's actual science, which I know you're not a fan of, because you keep denying the conclusions of good science.

And a wild guess is that the kid didn't go visiting on his/her own, and was taken by parents?

[lionking]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

And your point is?

I said: School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease.

I didn't say it doesn't happen, because it obviously does, but they're a far lower risk than adults. That's actual science, which I know you're not a fan of, because you keep denying the conclusions of good science.

And a wild guess is that the kid didn't go visiting on his/her own, and was taken by parents?

Not everybody thinks so. Pretty good scientists.

https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/...ooked-and-risk

Quote:

It is widely thought that children are much less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults and do not play a substantial role in transmission. However, emerging research suggests this perception is unfounded.

[dann]

Originally Posted by lionking

Not everybody thinks so. Pretty good scientists.

https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/...ooked-and-risk

It is one of the ideas that Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has been pushing very hard, based on nothing but Sweden's own very insufficient data from the first few months of the pandemic when they only tested severe cases. He was adamant about schools staying open:

Quote:

One example showing clearly that government officials had been thinking about herd immunity from early on is a March 15 email sent from a retired doctor to Tegnell, the epidemiologist and architect of the Swedish plan, which he forwarded to his Finnish counterpart, Mika Salminen. In it, the retired doctor recommended allowing healthy people to be infected in controlled settings as a way to fight the epidemic. “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster,” Tegnell noted at the top of the forwarded email.

Salminen responded that the Finnish Health Agency had considered this but decided against it, because “over time, the children are still going to spread the infection to other age groups.” Furthermore, the Finnish model showed that closing schools would reduce “the attack rate of the disease on the elderly” by 10%. Tegnell responded: “10 percent might be worth it?”

The majority of the rest of Sweden’s policymakers seemed to have agreed: the country never closed daycare or schools for children under the age of 16, and school attendance is mandatory under Swedish law, with no option for distance learning or home schooling, even for family members in high risk groups. Policymakers essentially decided to use children and schools as participants in an experiment to see if herd immunity to a deadly disease could be reached. Multiple outbreaks at schools occurred in both the spring and autumn.
The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World (Time, Oct. 14, 2020)

The Swedes were biased for a reason: Teachers shouldn't worry about their health. No working from home for teachers:

Quote:

A Public Health Agency report published July 7 included data for teachers in primary schools working on-site as well as for secondary school teachers who switched to distance instruction online. In the report, they combined the two data sources and compared the result to the general population, stating that teachers were not at greater risk and implying that schools were safe. But in fact, the infection rate of those teaching in classrooms was 60% higher than those teaching online—completely undermining the conclusion of the report.

The report also compares Sweden to Finland for March through the end of May and wrongly concludes that the ”closing of schools had no measurable effect on the number of cases of COVID-19 among children.” As testing among children in Sweden was almost non-existent at that time compared to Finland, these data were misrepresented; a better way to look at it would be to consider the fact that Sweden had seven times as many children per capita treated in the ICU during that time period.

When pressed about discrepancies in the report, Public Health Agency epidemiologist Jerker Jonsson replied on Aug. 21 via email: “The title is a bit misleading. It is not a direct comparison of the situation in Finland to the situation in Sweden. This is just a report and not a peer-reviewed scientific study. This was just a quick situation report and nothing more.” However the Public Health Agency and Minister of Education continue to reference this report as justification to keep schools open, and other countries cite it as an example.
The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World (Time, Oct. 14, 2020)

Go to the actual Time article for several links to the references mentioned in the quotations.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by lionking

Not everybody thinks so. Pretty good scientists.

Old data - from March/April - that has been shown to be wrong.

Quote:

Based on reports from Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs), children aged 0-17 years only represent 7.3% of all patients with COVID-19 reported since 1 June until 23 August 2020, although they comprise 20.7% of the population. That 7.3% consists mainly of 12 to 17-year-olds, i.e. 5.2%, compared to 0.3% of 0 to 3-year-olds and 1.7% of 4 to 11-year-olds.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronav...n-and-covid-19

Quote:

Since March, 277,285 COVID-19 cases in children have been reported. COVID-19 incidence among adolescents aged 12–17 years was approximately twice that in children aged 5–11 years.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e2.htm

Sorry to burst another one of your bubbles, but it's starkly clear that children under 12 are the least infectious group of humans.

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e2.htm

Sorry to burst another one of your bubbles, but it's starkly clear that children under 12 are the least infectious group of humans.

That young children are not material spreaders seems to be increasingly born out. Both the New York Times and The Atlantic are reporting this in multiple regions where schools have opened. They don't have a bias in this direction since Trump is also pushing opening up the schools. To say they (and me for that matter) don't like Trump would be an understatement. Rather, it reflects current experience in the USA.

That said, there are issues with aggregated data. Too much of the data lumps everyone under 18 together. Early aggregation of data reduces the ability to separate out segments such as K-8 and 9-12. This stuff should, and could, have been known earlier.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Old data - from March/April - that has been shown to be wrong.



https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronav...n-and-covid-19



https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e2.htm

Sorry to burst another one of your bubbles, but it's starkly clear that children under 12 are the least infectious group of humans.

You are wrong.

[fromdownunder]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Sorry to burst another one of your bubbles, but it's starkly clear that children under 12 are the least infectious group of humans.

Let's take a hypothetical case in a hypothetical suburb in hypothetical Melbourne. One 12 year old gets Covid-19, and manages, very rarely, to infect one adult, and, that adult has infected another adult, and tests several days later show that at least 13 people have been infected starting with one child, and another 1,700 hypothetical tests from contacts of these hypothetical 13 people still awaiting forensics.


Hell, it took one security guard bonking somebody who was supposed to be in isolation that started the whole mess which led to many thousands of cases in Victoria including 725 in one day. Which is why it is not surprising that most European countries which never got below several 100's per day are now measuring days in 10s of 1000's (going back to your original question of why? in Europe)

The USA never got below 19,000, so I am not surprised that they are now at 80,000 per day.


And for the Northern Hemisphere... Winter is coming.


It only takes one.



Norm

[Orphia Nay]

I use Google searches to check country COVID-19 stats.

A search for "Iceland covid" brings up a chart showing covid history.

You can find every country.

Iceland had an early first wave, kept it low till September, and now the second wave is nearly over after it got only just higher than the first.

Looks like they know how to get it under control, but it does take time.

Population 357,000.

[Orphia Nay]

If you look at one of the sources for Google's stats, the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

you'll see the global cases in a map.

Is there a standard of national healthcare that this can be measured against?

Because surely countries in say, central Africa are not getting the number of tests available to people in say, Japan.

ETA: And is this is one of the reasons the UK and USA look really, really bad?

[Orphia Nay]

China tested 10 million people in Qingdao in 5 days earlier this month.

Slovakia is testing every person in the country.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covi...on-11603462995

[dann]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Because surely countries in say, central Africa are not getting the number of tests available to people in say, Japan.

ETA: And is this is one of the reasons the UK and USA look really, really bad?

People in Central Africa don't spend much time indoors, and when they do, their houses aren't as insulated as in the rest of the world. Central Africa doesn't have winters.
In Southern USA, people spend time indoors in the summer: air-conditioning.

I don't know if these are the reasons. Many people die from pneumonia and the flu in Nigeria, which doesn't support my idea.

[Pixel42]

The average age in African countries is much lower than in first world countries. That needs to be taken into account when comparing death rates in particular.

[Orphia Nay]

Thanks dann and Pixel42. All these factors are useful.

[Orphia Nay]

Czechoslovakia imposes curfews and imposes stricter restrictions.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...id-19/12816494


China is testing another whole city of 5 million due to another cluster.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...uster/12816224

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Czechoslovakia imposes curfews and imposes stricter restrictions.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...id-19/12816494


China is testing another whole city of 5 million due to another cluster.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...uster/12816224

Ehm, Czechoslovakia? How can country that haven't existed for 17 years do anything?

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Ehm, Czechoslovakia? How can country that haven't existed for 17 years do anything?

Heh, just realized I made a simple math error. It's been 27 years since split.

[No Other]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Old data - from March/April - that has been shown to be wrong.

That is assuming there is any good data.

[dann]

The Daily Show has a good take on Africa's pandemic response - and the way we may tend to underestimate the capability of African countries to deal with the pandemic in a rational and effective manner:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

And no, Trevor Noah does not leave out the examples of African countries whose leaders are in as much denial of the virus as the White House, but speaking of the White House, there is really no reason to look down on Africa anymore, is there?

I myself have tended to interpret Africa's low numbers as a question of geography and temperatures. I did not take into account that it might actually be a question of Africans responding much more rationally to the pandemic than Europeans and North Americans.
And it is not as if geography and temperatures have done much to keep the numbers down in South America ...

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

And it is not as if geography and temperatures have done much to keep the numbers down in South America ...

Very good point, and Africa has certainly been helped by ebola - people have learnt that wearing masks can help prevent disease and do it because it's smart, not political.

I was deeply disturbed at what might happen in Africa, but they've handled it with great common sense and success.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by No Other

That is assuming there is any good data.

Define 'good'.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by fromdownunder

The USA never got below 19,000, so I am not surprised that they are now at 80,000 per day.

That was on Oct 25. Today it's 181,000 and still climbing exponentially - even worse than I thought it would be (and I am pretty pessimistic). And we still have 1.5 months of administrative denialism to go!

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I was deeply disturbed at what might happen in Africa, but they've handled it with great common sense and success.

I am not surprised. They are not all the ******** countries we imagine them to be.

This adds even more weight to the argument that the 'territory anomaly' is more about culture than geography or diet. Other things may be a factor, but without a strong will and great common sense they are inadequate.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

I am not surprised. They are not all the ******** countries we imagine them to be.

You can count me out that "we". I've never thought they were. They have their problems, but since most of them date back to 400 years of white men running the place like they owned it, then divided the continent into convenient lines on a map when they found it too hard, I'm prepared to give them a bit of leeway.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

This adds even more weight to the argument that the 'territory anomaly' is more about culture than geography or diet. Other things may be a factor, but without a strong will and great common sense they are inadequate.

Probably right, but there are still a couple of anomalies that are inexplicable at the moment. The incredibly low death rate on the southern side of the Arabian Gulf - while Iran can't find room for all the corpses - and Hawaii, where we know compliance is low, but so are infections.

[No Other]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Define 'good'.

Accurate

[marting]

Just noticed Japan and S. Korea are seeing rapid case increases over the last couple weeks. Similar ramps to USA and Europe. Of course their base line is a few orders of magnitude lower but it looks like their test, trace, and quarantine will need to be supplemented with more NPIs. Sure looks like colder weather really feeds Covid-19. Are fomites a greater factor in cooler climates?

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by marting

Just noticed Japan and S. Korea are seeing rapid case increases over the last couple weeks. Similar ramps to USA and Europe. Of course their base line is a few orders of magnitude lower but it looks like their test, trace, and quarantine will need to be supplemented with more NPIs. Sure looks like colder weather really feeds Covid-19. Are fomites a greater factor in cooler climates?

Since the colder the temperature the longer the virus can survive, it seems highly likely that fomite transmission will increase in cold weather. there is also the factor of the population spending more time indoors in cold weather...

[marting]

Originally Posted by Lplus

Since the colder the temperature the longer the virus can survive, it seems highly likely that fomite transmission will increase in cold weather. there is also the factor of the population spending more time indoors in cold weather...

I believe both are increasing factors in colder weather. Studies show SARS-CoV-2 remains viable far longer at temps just a little below 20C and 10X or more longer below 5C. Bad for fomite transmission on outdoor surfaces or even indoor ones where people don't use much heat. And humidity also decreases in the winter increasing aerosolization and buildup.

Since Japan and S. Korea have experience and do an excellent job tracing, with any luck we will get some good science out of those countries about the transmission dynamics in colder weather.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by marting

I believe both are increasing factors in colder weather. Studies show SARS-CoV-2 remains viable far longer at temps just a little below 20C and 10X or more longer below 5C. Bad for fomite transmission on outdoor surfaces or even indoor ones where people don't use much heat. And humidity also decreases in the winter increasing aerosolization and buildup.

Since Japan and S. Korea have experience and do an excellent job tracing, with any luck we will get some good science out of those countries about the transmission dynamics in colder weather.

And in regards to the build-up, much less ventilation as people keep doors and windows closed.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by No Other

Accurate

Accuracy

Quote:

In the fields of science and engineering, the accuracy of a measurement system is the degree of closeness of measurements of a quantity to that quantity's true value...

given a set of data points from repeated measurements of the same quantity, the set can be said to be accurate if their average is close to the true value of the quantity being measured.

A measurement system can be accurate but not precise, precise but not accurate, neither, or both.

At its quantum heart the physical world is inherently random, so no measurement can ever be totally accurate. But if we specify a degree of accuracy then we can determine whether our measurements are accurate to that degree. Whether that is accurate enough to be called 'accurate' depends on what that the measurement will be used for, and whether it is 'good' enough depends on how well it fits the purpose.

You say 'good' = 'accurate', but without knowing the degree of accuracy your statement is useless. It becomes nothing more than a weasel word that you use to deny the validity of data on the basis that it is 'inaccurate' by some ill-defined or unrecognized standard that you invented.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

and Hawaii, where we know compliance is low, but so are infections.

The problem is teasing the 'anomaly' out from mitigation measures. You say Hawaii has 'low compliance', but they did enact containment measures that other parts of the US didn't, and that may have had more effect than you think. How much of their 'luck' is due to the warm climate and open air, and how much is due to their working hard to control the virus?

Paradise deferred? Hawaii officials 'looking at' delaying tourist return amid spike in COVID-19 cases

Quote:

(March 29) Honolulu came to an eerie standstill this week as the coronavirus pandemic spread throughout the islands. Hawaii officials effectively flipped the switch on the state's tourism-fueled economic engine in a bid to slow the spread of the virus

"If things do not get better we will have no choice but to look at more restrictions,'' Ige said... "I know that going backwards will cause further harm to our economy, but we have always said the health and safety of our community will be the highest priority,'' the governor said..

And now they are doing it again:-

Hawaii is tightening COVID-19 restrictions, from mask mandates to visitor testing

Quote:

A new statewide mandate issued Monday, Nov. 16, requires those ages 5 and up to wear masks in all indoor public settings, in private vehicles when members of other households are present, and outdoors when 6 feet distance from non-household members can’t be maintained...

Violation is a misdemeanor with penalties of up to a year in jail and a $5,000 fine.

“We did anticipate that there would be a few COVID cases that would be introduced because of travel,” Gov. Ige acknowledged Tuesday, adding that the pre-travel testing program was just “one layer” in a “layered approach” to protecting residents and visitors....

“By doing this work, we’ve been able to keep the COVID rates at the lowest in the country,” Green said, citing a seven-day average 88 new daily cases and a 2% positivity rate.

[dann]

I assume the weather in Hawaii is much like in Worldometers: Coronavirus: Cuba.
Population
Hawaii: 1,416 million
Cuba: 11,34 million

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

The problem is teasing the 'anomaly' out from mitigation measures. You say Hawaii has 'low compliance', but they did enact containment measures that other parts of the US didn't, and that may have had more effect than you think. How much of their 'luck' is due to the warm climate and open air, and how much is due to their working hard to control the virus?

I have no idea - I'm relying on people who live in Hawaii to tell me what's actually happening there.

Other warm countries haven't fared well. Not too cold in Brazil all year round and they've been smashed to almost exactly the same extent as USA.

[marting]

Originally Posted by marting

Yep. Although the claim is that the people were widely separated in different work locations and resided broadly over Tokyo.

However, the study presents data incorrectly.

Look at the graph: "The seropositivity rate and 7 days moving average of daily confirmed new cases of COVID19 from 5/26 to 9/1"

The sero-positivity precedes the daily case curve. If that's not bad enough they are comparing apples and oranges. The graph should be cumulative case counts, not daily case counts. The sero-positivity should trail slightly the cumulative cases.

And that (integral of the case counts) would be skewed strongly to the right. For instance the cumulative case count over the time period is only about 15% by the time the sero-positivity reached almost 40%. During the rest (the other 85%) of the cumulative case rise sero-positivity only increased to 48%.

I'm surprised that the authors didn't notice this, present the correct graph, and comment on it.

This simply makes no sense unless the employees somehow got exposed through a different mechanism and isn't representative of Tokyo sero-prevalence.

My criticisms of the paper's math seems to be born out from the latest data:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...9-coronavirus/

Quote:

Tokyo reported a record 539 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, the metropolitan government said, the third-straight day over 500.

The number of cases topped 500 for the first time on Thursday, with a single-day record 534.

The paper referred to in my earlier post suggested that Tokyo was already near herd immunity. And that was as of 3 months ago. Yeah right. There is something seriously flawed in that paper's data.

Here's the link to that paper:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...796v1.full.pdf

Quote:

With the rise in SPR nearing 50% (Figure) within our cohort,
matching the time when COVID-19 cases waned, the possibility of herd immunity
should be considered, particularly in the highly-dense urban scenario like Tokyo.

Major Fail!

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by marting

I believe both are increasing factors in colder weather. Studies show SARS-CoV-2 remains viable far longer at temps just a little below 20C and 10X or more longer below 5C. Bad for fomite transmission on outdoor surfaces or even indoor ones where people don't use much heat. And humidity also decreases in the winter increasing aerosolization and buildup.

Since Japan and S. Korea have experience and do an excellent job tracing, with any luck we will get some good science out of those countries about the transmission dynamics in colder weather.

Add Australia and New Zealand to that group.

Also, in Winter noses drip in the cold weather and the potential for hands to carry the virus might be higher.

[marting]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Add Australia and New Zealand to that group.

Also, in Winter noses drip in the cold weather and the potential for hands to carry the virus might be higher.

Yup. And leave secretions on surfaces where they will last a lot longer in the cold.