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#481 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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Yeah, the pubs and clubs are the big factor, as South Korea showed.
It was another example of the "phony war" period I was pointing out early on. Another factor is people gathering inside rather than out. Incorrect, and proven to be incorrect. School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease, and people are vastly more likely to catch Covid from someone other than a kid. I've posted several reliable studies on it if you want to go back and check. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#482 |
In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 46,839
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#483 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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And your point is?
I said: School kids under age 12 are very low drivers of the disease. I didn't say it doesn't happen, because it obviously does, but they're a far lower risk than adults. That's actual science, which I know you're not a fan of, because you keep denying the conclusions of good science. And a wild guess is that the kid didn't go visiting on his/her own, and was taken by parents? |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#484 |
In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 46,839
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Not everybody thinks so. Pretty good scientists.
https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/...ooked-and-risk
Quote:
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#485 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,252
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It is one of the ideas that Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has been pushing very hard, based on nothing but Sweden's own very insufficient data from the first few months of the pandemic when they only tested severe cases. He was adamant about schools staying open:
Quote:
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Go to the actual Time article for several links to the references mentioned in the quotations. |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#486 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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Old data - from March/April - that has been shown to be wrong.
Quote:
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Sorry to burst another one of your bubbles, but it's starkly clear that children under 12 are the least infectious group of humans. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#487 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,030
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That young children are not material spreaders seems to be increasingly born out. Both the New York Times and The Atlantic are reporting this in multiple regions where schools have opened. They don't have a bias in this direction since Trump is also pushing opening up the schools. To say they (and me for that matter) don't like Trump would be an understatement. Rather, it reflects current experience in the USA.
That said, there are issues with aggregated data. Too much of the data lumps everyone under 18 together. Early aggregation of data reduces the ability to separate out segments such as K-8 and 9-12. This stuff should, and could, have been known earlier. |
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Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool. |
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#488 |
In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 46,839
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#489 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 6,706
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Let's take a hypothetical case in a hypothetical suburb in hypothetical Melbourne. One 12 year old gets Covid-19, and manages, very rarely, to infect one adult, and, that adult has infected another adult, and tests several days later show that at least 13 people have been infected starting with one child, and another 1,700 hypothetical tests from contacts of these hypothetical 13 people still awaiting forensics. Hell, it took one security guard bonking somebody who was supposed to be in isolation that started the whole mess which led to many thousands of cases in Victoria including 725 in one day. Which is why it is not surprising that most European countries which never got below several 100's per day are now measuring days in 10s of 1000's (going back to your original question of why? in Europe) The USA never got below 19,000, so I am not surprised that they are now at 80,000 per day. And for the Northern Hemisphere... Winter is coming. It only takes one. Norm |
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Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in Vain |
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#490 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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I use Google searches to check country COVID-19 stats.
A search for "Iceland covid" brings up a chart showing covid history. You can find every country. Iceland had an early first wave, kept it low till September, and now the second wave is nearly over after it got only just higher than the first. Looks like they know how to get it under control, but it does take time. Population 357,000. |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#491 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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If you look at one of the sources for Google's stats, the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6 you'll see the global cases in a map. Is there a standard of national healthcare that this can be measured against? Because surely countries in say, central Africa are not getting the number of tests available to people in say, Japan. ETA: And is this is one of the reasons the UK and USA look really, really bad? |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#492 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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China tested 10 million people in Qingdao in 5 days earlier this month.
Slovakia is testing every person in the country. https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covi...on-11603462995 |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#493 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,252
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People in Central Africa don't spend much time indoors, and when they do, their houses aren't as insulated as in the rest of the world. Central Africa doesn't have winters. In Southern USA, people spend time indoors in the summer: air-conditioning. I don't know if these are the reasons. Many people die from pneumonia and the flu in Nigeria, which doesn't support my idea. |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#494 |
Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 12,826
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The average age in African countries is much lower than in first world countries. That needs to be taken into account when comparing death rates in particular.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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#495 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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Thanks dann and Pixel42. All these factors are useful.
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#496 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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Czechoslovakia imposes curfews and imposes stricter restrictions.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...id-19/12816494 China is testing another whole city of 5 million due to another cluster. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-...uster/12816224 |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#497 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,284
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ModBorg ![]() ![]() Engine: Ibalgin 400 |
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#498 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,284
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#499 |
Muse
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 626
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#500 | |||
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,252
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The Daily Show has a good take on Africa's pandemic response - and the way we may tend to underestimate the capability of African countries to deal with the pandemic in a rational and effective manner:
And no, Trevor Noah does not leave out the examples of African countries whose leaders are in as much denial of the virus as the White House, but speaking of the White House, there is really no reason to look down on Africa anymore, is there? I myself have tended to interpret Africa's low numbers as a question of geography and temperatures. I did not take into account that it might actually be a question of Africans responding much more rationally to the pandemic than Europeans and North Americans. And it is not as if geography and temperatures have done much to keep the numbers down in South America ... |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#501 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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Very good point, and Africa has certainly been helped by ebola - people have learnt that wearing masks can help prevent disease and do it because it's smart, not political.
I was deeply disturbed at what might happen in Africa, but they've handled it with great common sense and success. |
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#502 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,270
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We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good. |
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#503 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,270
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That was on Oct 25. Today it's 181,000 and still climbing exponentially - even worse than I thought it would be (and I am pretty pessimistic). And we still have 1.5 months of administrative denialism to go!
Originally Posted by The Atheist
This adds even more weight to the argument that the 'territory anomaly' is more about culture than geography or diet. Other things may be a factor, but without a strong will and great common sense they are inadequate. |
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#504 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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You can count me out that "we". I've never thought they were. They have their problems, but since most of them date back to 400 years of white men running the place like they owned it, then divided the continent into convenient lines on a map when they found it too hard, I'm prepared to give them a bit of leeway.
Probably right, but there are still a couple of anomalies that are inexplicable at the moment. The incredibly low death rate on the southern side of the Arabian Gulf - while Iran can't find room for all the corpses - and Hawaii, where we know compliance is low, but so are infections. |
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#505 |
Muse
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 626
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#506 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,030
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Just noticed Japan and S. Korea are seeing rapid case increases over the last couple weeks. Similar ramps to USA and Europe. Of course their base line is a few orders of magnitude lower but it looks like their test, trace, and quarantine will need to be supplemented with more NPIs. Sure looks like colder weather really feeds Covid-19. Are fomites a greater factor in cooler climates?
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#507 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 447
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#508 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,030
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I believe both are increasing factors in colder weather. Studies show SARS-CoV-2 remains viable far longer at temps just a little below 20C and 10X or more longer below 5C. Bad for fomite transmission on outdoor surfaces or even indoor ones where people don't use much heat. And humidity also decreases in the winter increasing aerosolization and buildup.
Since Japan and S. Korea have experience and do an excellent job tracing, with any luck we will get some good science out of those countries about the transmission dynamics in colder weather. |
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#509 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,031
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#510 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,270
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Accuracy
Quote:
You say 'good' = 'accurate', but without knowing the degree of accuracy your statement is useless. It becomes nothing more than a weasel word that you use to deny the validity of data on the basis that it is 'inaccurate' by some ill-defined or unrecognized standard that you invented. |
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#511 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,270
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The problem is teasing the 'anomaly' out from mitigation measures. You say Hawaii has 'low compliance', but they did enact containment measures that other parts of the US didn't, and that may have had more effect than you think. How much of their 'luck' is due to the warm climate and open air, and how much is due to their working hard to control the virus?
Paradise deferred? Hawaii officials 'looking at' delaying tourist return amid spike in COVID-19 cases
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Hawaii is tightening COVID-19 restrictions, from mask mandates to visitor testing
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#512 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,252
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I assume the weather in Hawaii is much like in Worldometers: Coronavirus: Cuba.
Population Hawaii: 1,416 million Cuba: 11,34 million |
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/dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx |
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#513 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,857
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#514 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,030
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My criticisms of the paper's math seems to be born out from the latest data:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...9-coronavirus/
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Here's the link to that paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...796v1.full.pdf
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#515 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,566
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#516 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,030
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