Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

Quote:

Svenskarnas oro för pandemin stiger brant i spåren av den ökade smittspridningen. Det visar DN/Ipsos novembermätning. Andelen som känner stor oro för vårdens kapacitet är större nu än under den förra toppen i våras. Samtidigt sjunker förtroendet för myndigheterna.
DN/Ipsos: Stigande oro för att vården inte klarar smittan (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 25, 2020)

Swedes' concerns about the pandemic are rising sharply in the wake of the increased spread of infection, according to DN / Ipso's November survey. The proportion of people who are very concerned about the health-care system's capacity is larger now than during the previous peak last spring. At the same time, confidence in the authorities is declining.
DagensNyheter/Ipsos: Increasing worries that the health-care system can’t handle the infection

At the presse briefing this afternoon, Tegnell was still talking about a ”decreasing increase” of the number of new cases …

Quote:

Den andra coronavågen har ännu inte nått sin topp, enligt statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell.
Men redan nu är vårdpersonal under kraftig press – och på Karolinska påminner de nya 12,5-timmarspassen om krisen i våras.
Flera befarar dessutom att personalflykten fortsätter.
– Man brukar säga att vårdpersonalen går på knäna, men vi kryper just nu. Vi är jätteuppgivna, säger Carina Lenngren, förhandlingsansvarig för Kommunal på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset. Personalen befaras sluta – när andra vågen är här (Expressen.se, Nov. 26, 2020)

The second corona wave has not yet reached its peak, according to national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. But even now, health-care staff are under strong pressure - and at Karolinska hospital, the new 12.5-hour shifts remind people of the crisis this spring.
Several also fear that the flight of staff will continue.
- They say that the hospital staff are ’walking on their knees’, but we are crawling right now. We are in despair, says Carina Lenngren, head of negotiations for municipal workers at Karolinska University Hospital.
It is feared that staff will stop – with the second wave here

And the numbers are expected to rise until some time in December:
FHM: I december når vi toppen av kurvan (Expressen.se, Nov. 26, 2020)
The Public Health Agency: We will reach the peak of the curve in December

[dann]

Nursing homes:

Quote:

* The official regulator of Sweden's care system says not one of the 21 regions took full responsibility to make sure all patients got individually appropriate care.
* One in five patients did not get examined by a doctor, which is a breach of the rules.
* Director-General Sofia Wallström says what they have found is "unacceptable".
Health watchdog finds "serious shortcomings" in Covid-19 care home report (RadioSweden.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Yes. Foot and Mouth can travel as much as two miles across country on the wind and infect animals at that distance. That's true airborne spread and I think it's a mistake to use the word "airborne" for aerosol spread, because when people hear "airborne" they often imagine out-doors wind-borne infection and that's a pretty scary concept which isn't actually the case here. Loose terminology is causing significant confusion.

I don't think terminology is a big problem. I think airborne should be used in the current situation, but it should of course be added that it is almost only relevant indoors. Telling people that the virus is not airborne, which is what they did in Sweden, will make people think that they are safe in indoor settings as long as they keep a distance.
If somebody misunderstands airborne to mean that they might get infected outdoors, they may become afraid of venturing outside, but that misunderstanding is easy to correct and doesn't harm them much.
If they think that they are safe inside as long as they practice social distancing, it helps spread the infection. (In particular if they are also told that face masks aren't really necessary because ... not airborne!)

Originally Posted by Rolfe

There's a paradox. I don't trust the village Co-op. Small, narrow aisles, and people didn't respect the single-file one-way system the only time I went in. Including the staff, who treated me as a nuisance because I was trying to distance.

Do you really think that the concentration of corona aerosols in your local Co-op could build up to the extent that people could get infected? I mean, it's not a place where people spend hours like in restaurants, bars or at choir practice, is it? Would passing somebody in an aisle, even a small narrow one, pose any danger if they don't cough on you?

[Rolfe]

It's probably not that dangerous but it's a small shop in comparison to the big supermarkets and if an employee was in there all day talking and breathing out aerosol it's possible the air-space could become infective.

[dann]

I thought Iceland's pandemic strategy was elimination because it seemed to have eliminated the virus and had no deaths for a couple of months, but that is not the case. Iceland is 'hammering and dancing' but has wielded the hammer more skillfully than most. See graphs.

A comprehensive article about Iceland's pandemic struggle:

Quote:

Unlike New Zealand, which closed its borders, elimination was never supported in Iceland for fears that the country would go bankrupt without tourism. So it is possible that new cases will continue to arise, says Guðnason.
How Iceland hammered COVID with science (Nature, Nov. 25, 2020)

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

It's probably not that dangerous but it's a small shop in comparison to the big supermarkets and if an employee was in there all day talking and breathing out aerosol it's possible the air-space could become infective.

There's a bookmakers in my small* market town. When it's open (not now) it has put a limit of 14 customers. The similarly-sized post office next to it (typical village post office) has a limit of 2 customers. I do wonder if they're giving their clientele an extra chance to gamble.


*technically a town due to the market cross but it's more like a large village.

[dann]

Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 26, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 654 (6,622) 5,841* 220* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 140 (811) 1,191* 42 *based on 75,091 tests, positive 1.6 %
Iceland: 76 (26) 11 2
Finland: 70 (388) 496 21
Norway: 58 (316) 480 33
Iceland has 166 active cases, Faroe Islands 2, New Zealand 60.
The Faroe Islands have 7 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.
Covid vaccine ready by March 2021 (KVF.fo, Nov. 24, 2020)

Quote:

In related news, no new Covid cases have been registered since Saturday. Two active cases remain in the country.
Herd immunity requires 50-70% to be vaccinated (KVF.fo, Nov. 25, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Ny coronarapport: Sverige är sämst (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 22, 2020)
New corona report: Sweden is worst

Aftonbladet's article is based on an article by Emanuel Karlsten:
Sverige sämst på att minska smittspridningen – Tegnell: Spännande rapport som saknar kontext (EmanuelKarlsten.se, Nov. 20, 2020)
Sweden is worst at lowering the spread of the infection - Tegnell: Interesting report, which lacks context

Whose article is based on this OECD report and a short interview with Tegnell:

SVT.se this morning:

Quote:

OECD har blandat ihop antalet utförda tester per vecka och dag för fyra länder, däribland Sverige.
– Värdet var sju gånger för högt. Enligt dem låg vi nästan i topp när det gäller antal tester och det stämmer inte, säger Anders Björkman, professor i infektionssjukdomar vid Karolinska institutet.
OECD ändrar i uppmärksammad rapport – hade räknat fel (SVT.se, Nov. 26-27, 2020)

OECD has confused the number of tests a week and tests a day for four countries, one of those Sweden.
– The number was 7 times too high. According to them we were almost at the top in number of tests, and that is not true, says Anders Björkman, professor of infectious diseases at the Karolinska Institute.
OECD makes changes to report that drew much attention - had calculated incorrectly

[dann]

Two new Swedish articles in the thread about capitalism spreading coronavirus.

[dann]

Quote:

Enligt en ny rapport uppskattar europeiska smittskyddsmyndigheten ECDC att dödstalen i covid-19 i Sverige kan bli lika höga i december som i april.
– Vi uppskattar att det dagliga antalet dödsfall kommer att toppa mellan 100 och 140 dödsfall under de första veckorna i december och sedan sjunka igen före jul. Det är det mest troliga scenariot, säger ECDC:s analytiker Helen Johnson.
ECDC: Dödstalen i Sverige kan bli lika höga som i april (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

According to a new report, the European agency of infectious disease protection ECDC estimates that the death toll from Covid-19 in Sweden may become as high in December as it was in April.
- We estimate that the number of daily deahts will peak at between 100 and 140 deaths in the first weeks of December and then sink again before Christmas. It is the most likely scenario, says ECDC’s analyst Helen Johnson.
ECDC: The death toll in Sweden may become as high as is April*

Quote:

Folkhälsomyndighetens scenario borde ses som en varningssignal, inte som ett positivt besked. Givet den andra vågens höjd och längd verkar resultatet bli värre än i våras. Sverige är återigen betydligt sämre än sina grannländer, som tillämpar en annan strategi.
Leder: Att smittkurvan vänder låter bättre än det år (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

The Public Health Agency’s scenario should be seen as a warning signal, not as a positive message. Considering the height and length of the second wave, the impact seems to get worse than it was in spring. Sweden is again in a much worse situation than its neighboring countries, which have implemented a different strategy.
Editorial: That the curve of new infections will turn around sounds better than it is

Quote:

Tom Britton ångrar modell om flockimmunitet. Matematikprofessorns beräkningar om smittspridningen blev fel: ”Det var inte bra.”
(...)
Matematikprofessorn Tom Britton såg tidigt coronahotet mot Sverige. Den 6 mars skickade han ett mejl till Anders Tegnell och varnade för att smittan skulle spridas i Sverige. Det blev det första mejlet av hundratals.
Det senaste handlar om munskydd.
– Munskyddsgrejen har blivit så laddad. ”Är du för eller mot?!” Jag är lite mittemellan.
Tom Britton har skrivit hundratals mejl till Anders Tegnell – ibland har han fått svar (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

Tom Britton regrets the model of herd immunity. The mathematics professor’s calculations about the spread of infection got wrong: ”It wasn’t good.”
(...)
The mathematics professor Tom Britton saw the corona threat to Sweden early on. On March 6, he sent an email to Anders Tegnell and warned him that the infection would spread to Sweden. It was the first of hundreds of emails.
The latest one is about face masks.
The face-mask question became so loaded. ”Are you for or against?!” I am a somewhat in between.”
Tom Britton has written hundreds of emails to Anders Tegnell – sometimes he received a reply


*The article is behind a paywall, but Expressen's article based on the article in Dagens Nyheter isn't:
Sverige kan nå svart coronarekord före jul (Expressen.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

[dann]

Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 27, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 660 (6,681) 6,774* 219* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 141 (816) 1,323* 46 *based on 84,409 tests, positive 1.6 %.
Iceland: 76 (26) 23 2
Finland: 71 (393) 618 19
Norway: 60 (328) 445 31
Iceland has 176 active cases, Faroe Islands 2, New Zealand 66.
The Faroe Islands have 7 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

[dann]

Quote:

Tegnell har fått ta emot hård kritik. Men att det skulle vara en splittring i samhället om den svenska strategi, eller en polariserad debatt, anser han inte.
– Vi har ingen splittring i det svenska samhället. Det finns ett fantastiskt högt förtroende för myndigheten, den politiska nivån och sjukvården.
Anser du inte att debatten om strategin stundtals är ganska hätsk?
– Det är en debatt i media, inte en debatt som pågår i samhället. Det är inte alls som i USA där det här har vridits politiskt, till exempel att det är ett ställningstagande att ta på sig munskydd. Vi har inte heller starka proteströrelser mot myndigheterna som man har i Tyskland och Frankrike. En stor del av befolkningen är enig om att vi sköter detta på ett så bra sätt som man kan göra det.
(…)
Du kritiseras för att ha tonat ner riskerna med att smittan ska spridas igen. Hur ser du på den kritiken?
– Jag kan inte förstå den. I andra länder har man varit inne på att det här är något vi aldrig kommer bli av med helt och hållet. Vi har varit tydliga med att det här är en sjukdom som kommer att finnas kvar under lång tid.
Du kritiseras också för att ha gjort felbedömningar i viktiga skeenden under smittans spridning?
– Vi gjorde hela tiden riskvärderingar utifrån scenarier som var just då. Att man sedan i backspegeln går tillbaka och säger ”då tyckte ni så – se hur det blev tre månader senare” är inte en relevant argumentation när det gäller risken just vid det tillfället. Det är helt fel.
Tegnell avfärdar kritiken: Kan inte förstå den (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 26, 2020)

Tegnell has been exposed to harsh criticism. But he doesn’t think that the Swedish society has been divided in the question of the Swedish strategy or that there has been a polarized debate.
– The Swedish society is not divided. The level of confidence in the authorities, politics and the health-care system is incredibly high.
Don’t you think that the debate about the strategy is sometimes quite heated?
The debate is in the media, not in society. It is not at all like in the USA where the question has been twisted by politics, for instance that it is a position to wear face masks. We also don’t have strong protest movements against the authorities the way they do in Germany and France. A large proportion of the population agrees that we are handling this in the best way possible.
You are being criticized for downplaying the risks that the infection will spread again. What do you think of this criticism?
– I don’t understand it. In other countries, it has been discussed that this is something that we will never get rid of completely. We have been very clear that this is a disease that will be here for a very long time.
You are also criticized for having made incorrect assessments of important things happening while the infection was spreading?
– We made risk assessments all the time based on scenarios that were happening at the time. That people then look back and say, ”back then, this is what you thought – but look what it was like three months later” is not a relevant argument when it is a question of the risk at that exact point. That is completely wrong.
Tegnell dismisses the criticism: Doesn’t understand it – ”We have to live with this disease somehow”

Tegnell doesn't seem to notice that anti-masking, inspired by his strategy, is one of the twisted political positions in the USA. He also doesn't seem to notice that he is the inspiration for many of the protest movements in other countries. I guess those are some of the many things he doesn't understand.

Quote:

”Jag blev helt chockad, trodde inte att det var möjligt att folk ville trängas på det här viset under pandemin.” Det säger polisen Annika Lindahl som fotpatrullerar i Stockholms City. Nu befaras att trängseln kan bli ännu värre.
Polis mitt i trängseln: Blev helt chockad (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Nov. 28, 2020)

"I was quite shocked, I did not think it possible that people would be crowding in this way during the pandemic," says policewoman Annika Lindahl who is patrolling Stockholm City. Now it is heard that the crowding will get even worse.
Policewoman in the middle of the crowd: Was shocked
A Swedish policewoman posts photos of Black Friday shoppers

[dann]

The numbers are rising in Iceland:

Quote:

11 new COVID-19 cases were diagnosed domestically yesterday, but only three were already in quarantine. Þórólfur Guðnason says there is evidence that the coronavirus may be spreading more easily in society again—especially at shopping centres and parties.
Contagion in shops: concern virus gaining upper hand (RUV.is, Nov. 26, 2020)

Quote:

Chief epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason this Wednesday submitted his recommendations to the health minister for anti-contagion rules to take effect from 2nd December. He apparently recommended a slow lifting of restrictions in several areas, but has now cancelled his advice and asked the minister to wait for new recommendations. His move comes in the face of a rise in the COVID-19 infection rate in recent days.
Relaxed COVID rule advice scrapped over new infections (RUV.is, Nov. 27, 2020)

Quote:

“There are clear indications of exponential growth in our data from recent days and we are worried about where it is heading,” State police vice civil protection chief Rögnvaldur Ólafsson told RÚV this morning. 20 new COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Iceland yesterday, and only nine were already in quarantine.
”Clear signs” the virus is growing again (RUV.is, Nov. 27, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Tom Britton regrets the model of herd immunity. The mathematics professor’s calculations about the spread of infection got wrong: ”It wasn’t good.”
(...)
The mathematics professor Tom Britton saw the corona threat to Sweden early on. On March 6, he sent an email to Anders Tegnell and warned him that the infection would spread to Sweden. It was the first of hundreds of emails.
The latest one is about face masks.
The face-mask question became so loaded. ”Are you for or against?!” I am a somewhat in between.”
Tom Britton has written hundreds of emails to Anders Tegnell – sometimes he received a reply

Quote:

Matematikprofessoren Tom Britton regnede forkert. I foråret regnede han sig frem til, at Stockholm kunne opnå flokimmunitet mod covid-19 allerede i juni, og nyheden gik verden rundt. Men han tog altså fejl.
Det erkender han blankt i et interview til svenske Dagens Nyheter. Og nu, hvor smittespredningen i Sverige igen er på samme niveau som i foråret, opfordrer professoren den svenske statsepidemiolog, Anders Tegnell, til også at erkende sine fejl.
For der blev begået fejl i den svenske håndtering af coronapandemien i foråret, mener Tom Britton, der er professor i matematisk statistik ved universitetet i Stockholm og blandt andet forsker i, hvordan smitsomme sygdomme spreder sig i en befolkning.
Og dette skader svenskernes tillid til Folkhälsomyndigheten, den svenske pendant til Sundhedsstyrelsen, hvis ikke fejlene erkendes, tilføjer Tom Britton:
»Folkhälsomyndigheten og Anders Tegnell lader til at have svært ved at erkende fejl, og andre lader til helt principielt at mene, at alt, hvad Folkhälsomyndigheten gør, er forkert,« siger Tom Britton til Dagens Nyheter.
Matematikprofessor forudså svensk flokimmunitet. Nu har han sendt over 100 e-mail til Anders Tegnell (BerlingskeTidende.dk, Nov. 27, 2020)

Mathematics professor Tom Britton miscalculated. In the spring, he calculated that Stockholm could achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 as early as in June, and the news went around the world. But he was actually wrong.
He openly admits this in an interview with Swedish Dagens Nyheter. And now that the spread of infection in Sweden is again at the same level as in the spring, the professor encourages Swedish national epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, to also admit his mistakes. Because mistakes were made in the Swedish handling of the corona pandemic in the spring, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Stockholm and, among other things, researcher on how infectious diseases spread in a population.
And this harms the Swedes' trust in the Public Health Agency, the Swedish equivalent of the (Danish) National Board of Health, if the errors are not acknowledged, Tom Britton adds: "The Public Health Agency and Anders Tegnell seem to have a hard time acknowledging mistakes, and others seem to think that, as a principle, everything the Public Health Agency does is wrong," Tom Britton told Dagens Nyheter.
Mathematics professor predicted Swedish herd immunity. Now he has sent more than 100 emails to Anders Tegnell

Tom Britton also thinks that the Public Health Agency's attitude to face masks is a little cowardly.

[dann]

Saturday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 28, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 660 (6,681) 6,774* 219* **according to SVT.se No new numbers till Tuesday afternoon.
Denmark: 142 (823) 1,636* 42 *based on 100,197 tests, positive 1.6 %. Highest number of cases as well as of tests..
Iceland: 76 (26) 25 2
Finland: 71 (393) 541 19
Norway: 60 (328) 353 31
Iceland has 193 active cases, Faroe Islands 4, New Zealand 69.
The Faroe Islands have 7 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

Quote:

Handball player tests Covid positive (KVF.fo, Nov. 28, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Don’t you think that the debate about the strategy is sometimes quite heated?
The debate is in the media, not in society. It is not at all like in the USA where the question has been twisted by politics, for instance that it is a position to wear face masks. We also don’t have strong protest movements against the authorities the way they do in Germany and France.
Tegnell dismisses the criticism: Doesn’t understand it – ”We have to live with this disease somehow”

Tegnell doesn't seem to notice that anti-masking, inspired by his strategy, is one of the twisted political positions in the USA. He also doesn't seem to notice that he is the inspiration for many of the protest movements in other countries. I guess those are some of the many things he doesn't understand.

Article today in Aftonbladet:

Quote:

Tyska covidskeptiker drömmer om Sverige. På bilderna från de många demonstrationer mot regeringens coronapolitik som har hållits i Tyskland sedan i våras står yoginis och skäggiga hippies i harembyxor sida vid sida med heilande nynazister.
En sak har många protestdeltagare gemensamt: kärleken till Sverige. Medan Sverigebilden fått sig en törn av de mörka dödssiffrorna håller många i den konspiratoriska Querdenker-rörelsen, kritisk mot den tyska regeringens åtgärder för att stoppa smittspridningen under pandemin, fast vid sin dyrkan.
– Många demonstranter använder den svenska flaggan för att uttrycka att de också vill ha en politik som den i Sverige. Den har blivit en protestsymbol, säger Stefan Homburg, professor i offentliga finanser vid Leibniz-universitetet i Hannover.
Homburg har själv gjort sig känd som en hård kritiker av Merkelregeringens pandemipolitik, med kontaktförbud och munskyddskrav i butiker och kollektivtrafik. Han ser i stället Sverige som ett föregångsland, och hyllar Anders Tegnells insats som "ytterst professionell".
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 29, 2020 – 8:20)

German Covid-19 skeptics dream of Sweden. In the photos from the many demonstrations against the government's corona policy in Germany since this spring, yogis and bearded hippies in harem pants stand side by side with hailing Neo Nazis.
Many protestors have one thing in common: their love of Sweden. While the image of Sweden has taken a toll from the tragic number of deaths, many in the conspiracy-theorist Querdenker movement, who are critical of the German government's measures to stop the spread of infection during the pandemic, stick to worshipping the Swedish strategy.
– Many protestors use the Swedish flag to express that they also want a policy like the one in Sweden. It has become a symbol of protest, says Stefan Homburg, professor of government expenditure at the Leibniz University in Hannover.
Homburg has become known as a fierce critic of the Merkel government's pandemic policy with a ban on contacts and mandatory use of face masks in shops and on public transport. Instead, he sees Sweden as a pioneering country and praises Anders Tegnell's efforts as "very professional".

Quote:

Åter ökar antalet döda i covid-19 dramatiskt. Vårens svenska strategival skyddade oss inte mot en andra våg.
Sverige betalar ett högt pris för grupptänkande och hybris - Hjältedyrkan hjälper inte mot covid-19. (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 29, 2020)

The number of deaths from COVID-19 Is increasing dramatically again. Sweden's choice of strategy this spring did not protect us against a second wave.
Sweden is paying a high price for group thinking and hubris - Hero worship does not help against Covid-19.


When Anders Tegnell says that "We also don’t have strong protest movements against the authorities the way they do in Germany and France," he ignores the fact that Sweden's ban on groups larger than eight is also a ban on "strong protest movements."

[dann]

And speaking of ...

Quote:

Regeringens beslut om att högst åtta personer får delta i allmänna sammankomster ska minska smittspridningen. Men det begränsar också den demokratiska rätten att demonstrera. Åtgärden är försvarbar men får inte normaliseras, menar två demokratiforskare.
Så kan förbud under pandemin påverka Sveriges demokrati (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 29, 2020)

The government’s decision that people are not allowed to gather in groups larger than eight is meant to lower the spread of infection. But it also limits the democratic right to protest. The measure is defensible but should not be normalized, two democracy researchers thing.
How bans during the pandemic may affect Sweden’s democracy

[dann]

Quote:

Delstaten Victoria har inte haft ett fall på en månad: ”Världen önskar att de var oss”
Över 20 000 fall av coronaviruset har rapporterats in i den australienska delstaten Victoria sedan pandemins början.
Men nu bedömer landet hälsomyndighet att viruset är utrotat i delstaten.
– Världen tittar på Australien och önskar att de var oss, säger Greg Hunt, som är landets hälsominister.
Så blev delstaten av med coronaviruset – inte ett fall på en månad (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 29, 2020)

The Australian state Victoria has not had any cases for for a month: ”The world wishes they were us”
Since the beginning of the pandemic, more than 20,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the Australian state Victoria.
But now the Health Authorities in the country assesses that the virus has been eliminated in the state.
The world is watching Australia, wishing they were us, says Greg Hunt, the country’s minister of health.
How the state got rid of the coronavirus – not a single case for a month

[dann]

The first time SVT.se mentioned the OECD report, which graded Sweden at the bottom in many categories, they seemed to be quite happy that not all grades were low:

Quote:

Inte bara bottenbetyg
Men OECD:s rapport ger inte bara ris till Sverige. Till exempel har effekterna på svensk ekonomi varit relativt små jämfört med övriga Europa och Sverige står sig även väl när det gäller testningen. OECD har där studerat antalet dagliga test per 100 000 invånare. Sverige landar där på 243 test, högt över snittet på 123 test.
Sverige får bottenbetyg i stor coronastudie (SVT.se, Nov. 22-23, 2020)

Not just bottom grades
But the OECD report doesn't only have criticism for Sweden. The impact on Swedish economy, for instance, has been relatively small compared to the rest of Europe, and Sweden is also well positioned as far as testing is concerned. The OECD has studied the number of daily tests per 100,000. With 243 tests Sweden is way above the average of 123 tests.
Sweden gets bottom grades in big corona study (SVT.se, Nov. 23, 2020)

However, as it turned out, the OECD thought that Sweden's number of tests per week was the number per day:

Originally Posted by dann

OECD has confused the number of tests a week and tests a day for four countries, one of those Sweden.
– The number was 7 times too high. According to them we were almost at the top in number of tests, and that is not true, says Anders Björkman, professor of infectious diseases at the Karolinska Institute.
OECD makes changes to report that drew much attention - had calculated incorrectly (SVT.se, Nov. 26-27, 2020

So after the correction, Sweden got low grades here as well:

Quote:

Efter ändringen är det endast en rättelse som tillkommit – som sätter Sverige i botten på ännu en punkt.
Sverige pekades ut som sämst – nu ändrar OECD (Expressen.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

After the change, only one correction has been added - which places Sweden at the bottom of yet another category.
Sweden was pinpointed as the worst – now the OECD makes a correction i.e. the correction makes it even worse.

OECD rättar rapport och placerar Sverige lågt i ytterligare en mätning: ”Blir så när man jämför länder” (EmanuelKarlsten.se, Nov. 27, 2020)
OECD corrects report and places Sweden low in one more category: ”This is what happens when you compare countries”

[dann]

Quote:

Döda i covid-19 per hundratusen invånare (inom parentes antal döda)
Madrid – 170 (11 349)
Stockholm – 113 (2 688)
Paris – 111 (2 440)
London – 85 (6 953)
Rom – 38 (2 215)
Berlin – 14 (527)
Oslo – 9 (63)
Stockholm näst hårdast drabbade huvudstaden i Europa (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 29, 2020)

Dead from Covid-19 per 100,000 (number of deaths in parenthesis)
(...)
Stockholm is the second-hardest impacted capital in Europe

Aftonbladet: Stockholm is the second hardest-hit capital in Europe when it comes to the pandemic (NorwayToday.info, Nov. 29, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Mathematics professor Tom Britton miscalculated. In the spring, he calculated that Stockholm could achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 as early as in June, and the news went around the world. But he was actually wrong.
He openly admits this in an interview with Swedish Dagens Nyheter. And now that the spread of infection in Sweden is again at the same level as in the spring, the professor encourages Swedish national epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, to also admit his mistakes. Because mistakes were made in the Swedish handling of the corona pandemic in the spring, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Stockholm and, among other things, researcher on how infectious diseases spread in a population.
And this harms the Swedes' trust in the Public Health Agency, the Swedish equivalent of the (Danish) National Board of Health, if the errors are not acknowledged, Tom Britton adds: "The Public Health Agency and Anders Tegnell seem to have a hard time acknowledging mistakes, and others seem to think that, as a principle, everything the Public Health Agency does is wrong," Tom Britton told Dagens Nyheter.
Mathematics professor predicted Swedish herd immunity. Now he has sent more than 100 emails to Anders Tegnell (Berlingske.dk, Nov. 27, 2020)

Tom Britton also thinks that the Public Health Agency's attitude to face masks is a little cowardly.

Svenska Dagbladet today:

Quote:

Han är matematikprofessorn som trollband många svenskar i våras med sina modeller. Men det blev fel. Och fel igen i somras. Nu har Tom Britton en ny uppfattning om när Sverige når flockimmunitet mot covid-19.
Tom Britton är kritisk till Folkhälsomyndigheten.
Myndigheten har varit för långsam och det tycks gå prestige i vissa frågor som de driver. Olyckligt, menar matematikprofessorn.
Britton efter felen – här är hans nya prognos (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Nov. 29, 2020)

He is the mathematics professor who spell bound many Swedes with his models this spring. But they were wrong. And wrong again this summer.
Now Tom Britton has a new view about when Sweden will reach herd immunity against Covid-19.
Tom Britton is critical of the Public Health Agency.
The Agency has been too slow – and some of the questions they are pursuing seem to become a matter of prestige. Unfortunate, the mathematics professor thinks.
Britton after the error – here is his new prognosis
It would be very interesting to see the prognosis, but it is behind a paywall.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Yes, they're describing aerosol transmission indoors, and "long distances or times" is a relative term. True airborne transmission where the bloody thing blows on the wind and can be caught hundreds of metres away downwind in the open air is thankfully not an issue with this one.

I am sure I saw a study which shows the Covid virus can hang around in the air for a long time. For example, in a shop, when the person dispensing it has long left.

I don't think it necessarily means it has to 'blow around with the wind' hundreds of metres away outdoors. The risk would be indoors, where there is no wind to blow it away.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

I am sure I saw a study which shows the Covid virus can hang around in the air for a long time. For example, in a shop, when the person dispensing it has long left.

I don't think it necessarily means it has to 'blow around with the wind' hundreds of metres away outdoors. The risk would be indoors, where there is no wind to blow it away.

Yes, that seems to be the epidemiological consensus. In particular, if the ventilation system isn't very effective. However, in a shop (even in a bicycle repair shop), the doors are usually opened and closed all the time, which should contribute to some air circulation, and customers don't usually spend hours in a shop the way people do in churches, cinemas, bars and restaurants.

[Vixen]

The DAILY MAIL is claiming, yesterday, that Tegnell has been 'sidelined', presumably ont eh basis that Lofven's press conference overran thus, overlapping/clashing and blocking out Tegnell's scheduled after his.

Quote:

Has Sweden's iconoclast public health expert been sidelined? Anders Tegnell is pushed off the airwaves amid 'split' within government as country's coronavirus deaths continue to rise
Swedish PM's briefing overran on Thursday, clashing with that of Anders Tegnell
Sweden has said it has seen no signs of herd immunity slowing spread of Covid
Tegnell once said country would fare better than others due to higher immunity
Total of 6,622 Covid-related deaths in Sweden and 5,841 new cases on Thursday

<snip>

Quote:

Stricter restrictions were issued in 17 of 21 of Sweden's regions by the country's public health body and Dr Tegnell as well as a 10pm curfew on bars a pubs.

'It is a different situation than we had in the spring when it was more local. Now we have a community spread in many regions at the same time, which is partly a reason why we see such high numbers,' he said.

This would seem to suggest things are worse now than then.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by dann

Yes, that seems to be the epidemiological consensus. In particular, if the ventilations system isn't very effective. However, in a shop (even in a bicycle repair shop), the doors are usually opened and closed all the time, which should contribute to some air circulation, and customers don't usually spend hours in a shop the way people do in churches, cinemas, bars and restaurants.

One really good piece of advice I saw is that if you enter a public place that seems really stuffy, then it's a good idea to not spend much time in there.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

This would seem to suggest things are worse now than then.

See post 2970.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

The DAILY MAIL is claiming, yesterday, that Tegnell has been 'sidelined', presumably on the basis that Lofven's press conference overran thus, overlapping/clashing and blocking out Tegnell's scheduled after his.

It was mentioned in the Swedish media as well. It may have been deliberate, but if not, it was at least an example of lack of coordination, which would be strange, all things considered.

More and more of Tegnell's former supporters seem to be leaving the sinking ship. Tom Britton is just the latest example. They all know that the only justification for the Swedish strategy was the expectation of herd immunity, which was somehow supposed to make the death toll in March, April, May and June a price worth paying. It was the one thing that was supposed to make Sweden able to sit back and relax while the pandemic caught up with Sweden's neighbors because ... well, it was just bound to do so, wasn't it?!

I do not doubt at all that Tegnell and Giesecke hate the other Nordic countries for not living up to their high hopes of a disastrous second wave in the other countries that could make Sweden's disaster seem to have served its delusional purpose.

At this point, all Tegnell has got going for his strategy is the claim that it is impossible to know why things turned out the way they did in Sweden, but the reason has become more and more obvious for everybody. I am hoping for a whistleblower in the Public Health Agency to step up and reveal what has been going on inside the agency for the past nine months. Then the others will try to distance themselves from him, and a new consensus will be established.

But so far, the Public Health Agency has seemed to work much like the Republican Party in the USA. Tegnell has been allowed to carry on as "corona czar" no matter how obvious it was that his strategy has been failing all the way.

Sweden is supposed to be one of the most enlightened countries in the world when it comes to whistleblowing, but I am not sure that this is actually true. To me, whistleblowing seems to go against the grain of Swedish nationalism and consensus culture.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

One really good piece of advice I saw is that if you enter a public place that seems really stuffy, then it's a good idea to not spend much time in there.

I avoid it entirely, but in the current situation it's a privilege, not an inalienable right, to be able to do so, unfortunately.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Yes, they're describing aerosol transmission indoors, and "long distances or times" is a relative term. True airborne transmission where the bloody thing blows on the wind and can be caught hundreds of metres away downwind in the open air is thankfully not an issue with this one.

That is simply not true. Tuberculosis is airborne yet you won't catch it outside in the wind. You have to breathe in a concentrated amount of droplet nuclei (not to be confused with droplets in droplet spread) in order for enough of the TB bacillus to make it to the alveoli which has the conditions it requires to start an infection.

The rest of my answer is in the COVID medicine thread.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Vixen

I am sure I saw a study which shows the Covid virus can hang around in the air for a long time. For example, in a shop, when the person dispensing it has long left.

I don't think it necessarily means it has to 'blow around with the wind' hundreds of metres away outdoors. The risk would be indoors, where there is no wind to blow it away.

Exactly.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Vixen

The DAILY MAIL is claiming, yesterday, that Tegnell has been 'sidelined', presumably ont eh basis that Lofven's press conference overran thus, overlapping/clashing and blocking out Tegnell's scheduled after his.

<snip>

This would seem to suggest things are worse now than then.

One thing that is different is it is clear that the herd immunity theory failed to provide any kind of protection greater than countries which went for various degrees of lock down.

[dann]

Sunday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 29, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 660 (6,681) 6,774* 219* **according to SVT.se No new numbers till Tuesday afternoon.
Denmark: 143 (829) 998* 43 *based on 54,691 tests, positive 1.82 %.. Fewer cases, but based on fewer tests.
Iceland: 76 (26) 10 2
Finland: 71 (393) 322 19
Norway: 60 (328) 282 36
Iceland has 187 active cases, Faroe Islands 4, New Zealand 69.
The Faroe Islands have 7 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

One thing that is different is it is clear that the herd immunity theory failed to provide any kind of protection greater than countries which went for various degrees of lock down.

It is actually worse than that. As a theory, the herd immunity strategy managed to convince Swedish society, the government as well as the regions, politicians as well as epidemiologists and other infectious-disease experts, that there would be no second wave and that it would thus be unnecessary to use the respite of the summer months to get more PPE and testing capacity.

So even at this point, Sweden still is not testing as much as they should have been doing.

Anders Tegnell's legacy will be similar to Donald Trump's.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by dann

It is actually worse than that. As a theory, the herd immunity strategy managed to convince Swedish society, the government as well as the regions, politicians as well as epidemiologists and other infectious-disease experts, that there would be no second wave and that it would thus be unnecessary to use the respite of the summer months to get more PPE and testing capacity.

So even at this point, Sweden still is not testing as much as they should have been doing.

Anders Tegnell's legacy will be similar to Donald Trump's.

I can't believe we still don't have enough PPE for the hospitals here in WA State, especially for the nursing homes. And it looked like there would be enough testing capacity until people thought they might be able to get tests so they could safely have Thanksgiving dinner with family. But the health department told people not to get tested for that reason so people who might actually be infected could be tested.

[dann]

It makes sense to reserve testing capacity for people who need it the most, obviously, but that should have been a problem (and it was) only at the beginning of the pandemic and not at this point.

And it is the same with PPE. It made sense to tell people not to buy face masks when they were in short supply and needed at the hospitals and in nursing homes, but by now they have had plenty of time to stock face shields and face masks for all hospital and care workers.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

The DAILY MAIL is claiming, yesterday, that Tegnell has been 'sidelined', presumably on the basis that Lofven's press conference overran thus, overlapping/clashing and blocking out Tegnell's scheduled after his.

The general public is slowly losing confidence in him, but the level of confidence is still remarkably high:

Quote:

When asked about their trust in Tegnell himself, 65 percent said they had a high level of confidence in the epidemiologist in November. That's down from 72 percent in November October? but still higher than the levels in June and August, 60 and 64 percent respectively.
Sweden's coronavirus strategy was built on public trust in authorities. Can they still count on that? (TheLocal.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

I guess the death toll was soon forgotten by most Swedes ...

Tegnell about the alleged rift between Löfven and himself:

Quote:

"All rumours of a rift between the government and the agencies are completely false. We have a very strong dialogue and strong levels of trust between us," Tegnell said in response to one of his questions.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

That is simply not true. Tuberculosis is airborne yet you won't catch it outside in the wind. You have to breathe in a concentrated amount of droplet nuclei (not to be confused with droplets in droplet spread) in order for enough of the TB bacillus to make it to the alveoli which has the conditions it requires to start an infection.

The rest of my answer is in the COVID medicine thread.

I think you need more context.

Rolfe and I were discussing airborne viruses - the one that springs to mind is Foot and Mouth, which is airborne and the outbreaks can spread several *miles* downwind. At least that isn't the case with COVID-19.

[dann]

Quote:

Another reason for Sweden’s shift, according to Rocklöv, is evidence that the more restrictive policies in neighbouring countries “worked better” and did not have deleterious economic effects as feared.

Debate over semantics remains. Johan Nöjd, head of infectious disease control for Uppsala—the first Swedish region to voluntarily impose harsher restrictions—defined their rules as a “local lockdown.” But the Public Health Authority of Sweden still refuses to call it that, insisting on labelling them “stricter guidelines.” This has led to a lot of confusion over the country’s strategy, says Rocklöv. “What it actually was, and if we actually changed, or not.”

Contributing to the confusion was an announcement from the public health authority on 22 October that some national restrictions were to be eased. This included the removal of special recommendations for over-70s and risk groups to stay at home and shield themselves, permitting visits to nursing homes, and allowing up to 300 people to attend cultural and sporting events as long as they were seated far apart.

“Even now when there has been a change, the media in Sweden probably will continue to report on the Swedish strategy as if it was constant,” Rocklöv says. “In fact, the strategy changed in the spring as well when the approach to testing and tracing was refined.” Sweden initially refused to increase testing levels but later relented, recently ramping up to 190 000 tests a week from 32 700 in May. However, on 10 November Reuters reported that several regions were struggling to keep up with rising demand, forcing authorities to restrict bookings.4 Swedish opposition parties are also claiming that testing is far from the level it should be.
Covid-19: What Sweden taught Scandinavia for the second wave (BMJ, Nov. 27, 2020)

I can recommend the whole article, but I have made the journalist aware that this is wrong:

Quote:

Although total mortality is higher than in the rest of Scandinavia, Sweden’s current rates are relatively low, with an average of only three fatalities a day compared with 100 a day in early April.

Quote:

Fler än 150 dödsfall har hittills rapporterats per vecka för de senaste tre veckorna. Notera att efterrapportering gör att antalet avlidna dessa veckor kommer att öka ytterligare.
Aktuell veckorapport om covid-19 (Public Health Agency, Nov. 27, 2020)

So far, more than 150 deaths a week have been reported for the most recent three weeks. Notice that delayed reporting means that the number of deceased for these weeks will be increasing.


The first (Swedish?) anti-masker has already objected to the article because of this:

Quote:

“It is an extremely effective and inexpensive measure, while at the same time being simple, and the majority of studies have shown how effective it is,” he (Anders Vahlne, a professor of virology at the Karolinska Institute) told The BMJ. “It’s unclear why this measure shouldn’t be taken.”

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by jimbob

I think you need more context.

Rolfe and I were discussing airborne viruses - the one that springs to mind is Foot and Mouth, which is airborne and the outbreaks can spread several *miles* downwind. At least that isn't the case with COVID-19.

Rolfe is talking about 'true airborne' diseases, but of course livestock would be outside in a field so then, wind blown disease-carrying viruses/bacteria becomes relevant. However, of course, livestock are rarely indoors, except in their pens and stalls.

If Covid19 is not airborne, how would you explain mink populations across northern Europe carrying the '5-cluster' Covid19 mutation, and passing it on to at least a dozen human individuals?

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

That is simply not true. Tuberculosis is airborne yet you won't catch it outside in the wind. You have to breathe in a concentrated amount of droplet nuclei (not to be confused with droplets in droplet spread) in order for enough of the TB bacillus to make it to the alveoli which has the conditions it requires to start an infection.

The rest of my answer is in the COVID medicine thread.

This. I was looking at some art gallery paintings recently and was struck by how many artists and their subjects were tublerculosis victims. Now TB is still within living memory of our grandparents - I even knew someone near my age whose father died of TB in a sanatorium - not to mention polio, which was rife especially in Denmark up to the early sixties, and will have also been in Sweden.

Given the relatively modern day scourges of TB and poliomyelitis, which swept across Europe, I struggle to understand how Tegnell can rationalise away his 'pandemic strategy' as being due to 'Covid19 being completely new and unprecedented'. It is just nonsense. They had the tools - previous dangerous contagious diseases, together with their medical studies thereof in order to qualify and specialise in that very topic - they had the know-how: they knew exactly what needs to be done to limit the spread of the disease. It is just infuriating to see experts adopt the 'do nothing' approach, even if the likes of Johnson, Bolsanaro (_sp?) and Trump could be forgiven (humph!) as being ignorant and uncaring self-serving politicians.