Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

Quote:

Svenskarnas oro för pandemin stiger brant i spåren av den ökade smittspridningen. Det visar DN/Ipsos novembermätning. Andelen som känner stor oro för vårdens kapacitet är större nu än under den förra toppen i våras. Samtidigt sjunker förtroendet för myndigheterna.
DN/Ipsos: Stigande oro för att vården inte klarar smittan (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 25, 2020)

Swedes' concerns about the pandemic are rising sharply in the wake of the increased spread of infection, according to DN / Ipso's November survey. The proportion of people who are very concerned about the health-care system's capacity is larger now than during the previous peak last spring. At the same time, confidence in the authorities is declining.
DagensNyheter/Ipsos: Increasing worries that the health-care system can’t handle the infection

At the presse briefing this afternoon, Tegnell was still talking about a ”decreasing increase” of the number of new cases …

Quote:

Den andra coronavågen har ännu inte nått sin topp, enligt statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell.
Men redan nu är vårdpersonal under kraftig press – och på Karolinska påminner de nya 12,5-timmarspassen om krisen i våras.
Flera befarar dessutom att personalflykten fortsätter.
– Man brukar säga att vårdpersonalen går på knäna, men vi kryper just nu. Vi är jätteuppgivna, säger Carina Lenngren, förhandlingsansvarig för Kommunal på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset. Personalen befaras sluta – när andra vågen är här (Expressen.se, Nov. 26, 2020)

The second corona wave has not yet reached its peak, according to national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. But even now, health-care staff are under strong pressure - and at Karolinska hospital, the new 12.5-hour shifts remind people of the crisis this spring.
Several also fear that the flight of staff will continue.
- They say that the hospital staff are ’walking on their knees’, but we are crawling right now. We are in despair, says Carina Lenngren, head of negotiations for municipal workers at Karolinska University Hospital.
It is feared that staff will stop – with the second wave here

And the numbers are expected to rise until some time in December:
FHM: I december når vi toppen av kurvan (Expressen.se, Nov. 26, 2020)
The Public Health Agency: We will reach the peak of the curve in December

[dann]

Nursing homes:

Quote:

* The official regulator of Sweden's care system says not one of the 21 regions took full responsibility to make sure all patients got individually appropriate care.
* One in five patients did not get examined by a doctor, which is a breach of the rules.
* Director-General Sofia Wallström says what they have found is "unacceptable".
Health watchdog finds "serious shortcomings" in Covid-19 care home report (RadioSweden.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Yes. Foot and Mouth can travel as much as two miles across country on the wind and infect animals at that distance. That's true airborne spread and I think it's a mistake to use the word "airborne" for aerosol spread, because when people hear "airborne" they often imagine out-doors wind-borne infection and that's a pretty scary concept which isn't actually the case here. Loose terminology is causing significant confusion.

I don't think terminology is a big problem. I think airborne should be used in the current situation, but it should of course be added that it is almost only relevant indoors. Telling people that the virus is not airborne, which is what they did in Sweden, will make people think that they are safe in indoor settings as long as they keep a distance.
If somebody misunderstands airborne to mean that they might get infected outdoors, they may become afraid of venturing outside, but that misunderstanding is easy to correct and doesn't harm them much.
If they think that they are safe inside as long as they practice social distancing, it helps spread the infection. (In particular if they are also told that face masks aren't really necessary because ... not airborne!)

Originally Posted by Rolfe

There's a paradox. I don't trust the village Co-op. Small, narrow aisles, and people didn't respect the single-file one-way system the only time I went in. Including the staff, who treated me as a nuisance because I was trying to distance.

Do you really think that the concentration of corona aerosols in your local Co-op could build up to the extent that people could get infected? I mean, it's not a place where people spend hours like in restaurants, bars or at choir practice, is it? Would passing somebody in an aisle, even a small narrow one, pose any danger if they don't cough on you?

[Rolfe]

It's probably not that dangerous but it's a small shop in comparison to the big supermarkets and if an employee was in there all day talking and breathing out aerosol it's possible the air-space could become infective.

[dann]

I thought Iceland's pandemic strategy was elimination because it seemed to have eliminated the virus and had no deaths for a couple of months, but that is not the case. Iceland is 'hammering and dancing' but has wielded the hammer more skillfully than most. See graphs.

A comprehensive article about Iceland's pandemic struggle:

Quote:

Unlike New Zealand, which closed its borders, elimination was never supported in Iceland for fears that the country would go bankrupt without tourism. So it is possible that new cases will continue to arise, says Guðnason.
How Iceland hammered COVID with science (Nature, Nov. 25, 2020)

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

It's probably not that dangerous but it's a small shop in comparison to the big supermarkets and if an employee was in there all day talking and breathing out aerosol it's possible the air-space could become infective.

There's a bookmakers in my small* market town. When it's open (not now) it has put a limit of 14 customers. The similarly-sized post office next to it (typical village post office) has a limit of 2 customers. I do wonder if they're giving their clientele an extra chance to gamble.


*technically a town due to the market cross but it's more like a large village.

[dann]

Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 26, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 654 (6,622) 5,841* 220* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 140 (811) 1,191* 42 *based on 75,091 tests, positive 1.6 %
Iceland: 76 (26) 11 2
Finland: 70 (388) 496 21
Norway: 58 (316) 480 33
Iceland has 166 active cases, Faroe Islands 2, New Zealand 60.
The Faroe Islands have 7 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.
Covid vaccine ready by March 2021 (KVF.fo, Nov. 24, 2020)

Quote:

In related news, no new Covid cases have been registered since Saturday. Two active cases remain in the country.
Herd immunity requires 50-70% to be vaccinated (KVF.fo, Nov. 25, 2020)

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Ny coronarapport: Sverige är sämst (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 22, 2020)
New corona report: Sweden is worst

Aftonbladet's article is based on an article by Emanuel Karlsten:
Sverige sämst på att minska smittspridningen – Tegnell: Spännande rapport som saknar kontext (EmanuelKarlsten.se, Nov. 20, 2020)
Sweden is worst at lowering the spread of the infection - Tegnell: Interesting report, which lacks context

Whose article is based on this OECD report and a short interview with Tegnell:

SVT.se this morning:

Quote:

OECD har blandat ihop antalet utförda tester per vecka och dag för fyra länder, däribland Sverige.
– Värdet var sju gånger för högt. Enligt dem låg vi nästan i topp när det gäller antal tester och det stämmer inte, säger Anders Björkman, professor i infektionssjukdomar vid Karolinska institutet.
OECD ändrar i uppmärksammad rapport – hade räknat fel (SVT.se, Nov. 26-27, 2020)

OECD has confused the number of tests a week and tests a day for four countries, one of those Sweden.
– The number was 7 times too high. According to them we were almost at the top in number of tests, and that is not true, says Anders Björkman, professor of infectious diseases at the Karolinska Institute.
OECD makes changes to report that drew much attention - had calculated incorrectly

[dann]

Two new Swedish articles in the thread about capitalism spreading coronavirus.

[dann]

Quote:

Enligt en ny rapport uppskattar europeiska smittskyddsmyndigheten ECDC att dödstalen i covid-19 i Sverige kan bli lika höga i december som i april.
– Vi uppskattar att det dagliga antalet dödsfall kommer att toppa mellan 100 och 140 dödsfall under de första veckorna i december och sedan sjunka igen före jul. Det är det mest troliga scenariot, säger ECDC:s analytiker Helen Johnson.
ECDC: Dödstalen i Sverige kan bli lika höga som i april (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

According to a new report, the European agency of infectious disease protection ECDC estimates that the death toll from Covid-19 in Sweden may become as high in December as it was in April.
- We estimate that the number of daily deahts will peak at between 100 and 140 deaths in the first weeks of December and then sink again before Christmas. It is the most likely scenario, says ECDC’s analyst Helen Johnson.
ECDC: The death toll in Sweden may become as high as is April*

Quote:

Folkhälsomyndighetens scenario borde ses som en varningssignal, inte som ett positivt besked. Givet den andra vågens höjd och längd verkar resultatet bli värre än i våras. Sverige är återigen betydligt sämre än sina grannländer, som tillämpar en annan strategi.
Leder: Att smittkurvan vänder låter bättre än det år (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

The Public Health Agency’s scenario should be seen as a warning signal, not as a positive message. Considering the height and length of the second wave, the impact seems to get worse than it was in spring. Sweden is again in a much worse situation than its neighboring countries, which have implemented a different strategy.
Editorial: That the curve of new infections will turn around sounds better than it is

Quote:

Tom Britton ångrar modell om flockimmunitet. Matematikprofessorns beräkningar om smittspridningen blev fel: ”Det var inte bra.”
(...)
Matematikprofessorn Tom Britton såg tidigt coronahotet mot Sverige. Den 6 mars skickade han ett mejl till Anders Tegnell och varnade för att smittan skulle spridas i Sverige. Det blev det första mejlet av hundratals.
Det senaste handlar om munskydd.
– Munskyddsgrejen har blivit så laddad. ”Är du för eller mot?!” Jag är lite mittemellan.
Tom Britton har skrivit hundratals mejl till Anders Tegnell – ibland har han fått svar (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 27, 2020)

Tom Britton regrets the model of herd immunity. The mathematics professor’s calculations about the spread of infection got wrong: ”It wasn’t good.”
(...)
The mathematics professor Tom Britton saw the corona threat to Sweden early on. On March 6, he sent an email to Anders Tegnell and warned him that the infection would spread to Sweden. It was the first of hundreds of emails.
The latest one is about face masks.
The face-mask question became so loaded. ”Are you for or against?!” I am a somewhat in between.”
Tom Britton has written hundreds of emails to Anders Tegnell – sometimes he received a reply


*The article is behind a paywall, but Expressen's article based on the article in Dagens Nyheter isn't:
Sverige kan nå svart coronarekord före jul (Expressen.se, Nov. 27, 2020)