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Old 19th March 2020, 10:59 AM   #401
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
On what basis do you think stocks are undervalued? Apple, a fantastic company to be sure, is still selling at a 19.5 multiple. Interest rates are at historic lows, but that is due to the Federal Reserve throwing unlimited counterfeit money at the bond market for decades. Surely as the price/value of money go to zero, assets like Apple stock must get closer to infinity, but is this interest rate regime real? There have been a few unprecedented days in which both stock AND bond markets have sold off, and interest rates are slowly rising. With the rumblings in the dramatically overvalued bond market, how can you be so sure the stock market is a buy?
AAPL is around 20, but the S&P has been in the 15ish range (14.82 as of this morning), which does not seem overbought.
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Old 19th March 2020, 11:02 AM   #402
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
In case anyone gets upset - that is metaphorical.

As it happens, overseas investors are being somewhat protected by the leap in the US dollar - it partly offsets the share decline.
Definitely. The US<->CDN exchange rate has softened the blow on my portfolio, I'm currently down 15%. Although, AMZN probably helped too.

Canada's currency was also hit by the oil price shock, so we see more exchange benefit in our portfolios right now than most overseas countries.
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Old 19th March 2020, 12:35 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
AAPL is around 20, but the S&P has been in the 15ish range (14.82 as of this morning), which does not seem overbought.
15x would be a bargain, if interest rates and the bond market weren't phony. Perhaps as importantly, revenue and hence earnings are going to fall off of a cliff for one or two quarters, and possibly not recover as quickly as you would like after that. If the bond market crashes and earnings are utterly annihilated, then an S&P P/E of 3 is overpriced. I realize this is fairly pessimistic, but to me it's not unrealistic. We have the saudis and russians conspiring to destroy US shale and suppress the price of oil (despite a 24% pop today). What happens if they take the next step and start dumping US Treasuries (along with China)?

Even if stocks are priced "fairly" to most, they aren't to me, given what I see are some serious risks in the near future.
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Old 19th March 2020, 12:58 PM   #404
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The whole travel and tourist industry is going to go bankrupt. Airlines are all going broke and have grounded just about all their planes.
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Old 19th March 2020, 03:03 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The whole travel and tourist industry is going to go bankrupt. Airlines are all going broke and have grounded just about all their planes.
They won't go bankrupt. They'll have a bad year. A very bad year. Probably the worst year since 1945.

However, their expenses will also drop drastically. Firms that don't have cash reserves or have too much debt to handle an idle year will go bankrupt.
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Old 19th March 2020, 03:08 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The whole travel and tourist industry is going to go bankrupt. Airlines are all going broke and have grounded just about all their planes.
Not Air NZ - our gov't just gave them $900M.

Meanwhile, I think we might be seeing some sanity return to the market today.

The Dow up 120 is what you want to see - just people going about their business and looking for bargains. Not people diving in with forlorn hopes it's at the bottom.

That all emphasised by the very steady 22 points up on early futures.

The panic might finally have dissipated.
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Old 19th March 2020, 05:40 PM   #407
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Here's a cheery note that Bank of America sent out today:

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession ... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed.
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Old 19th March 2020, 06:44 PM   #408
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Captain Obvious write that?

The steadiness seems to be holding, with futures only down 10 right now. No big swings at all today.
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Old 19th March 2020, 06:52 PM   #409
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All the bad numbers about the spread of the virus in the US that emerged this afternoon probably means another bad day on Wall Street tommorow.
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Old 19th March 2020, 08:35 PM   #410
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Futures only down 100 or so - I think pretty well all the bad news is factored in now. I'd be surprised if it goes down with a big jump again - couple of hundred points, maybe.

It's a whole third off its high and I think it's now at the stage where the fundamentals of companies will be a bigger factor than fear. Companies with good cash flow look very buyable.

I think Buffet has a big war chest available, so he might open his wallet soon as well.
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Old 20th March 2020, 12:03 AM   #411
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Well, its good to see that US senators are responding to this crisis by making a lot of money with insider trading.
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Old 20th March 2020, 12:09 AM   #412
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Yeah, I just read that! Nice work.

Even that revolting scumbag Tucker Carlson says they should resign.
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Old 20th March 2020, 03:01 AM   #413
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, I just read that! Nice work.

Even that revolting scumbag Tucker Carlson says they should resign.
Talk is cheap. There's a big difference between a one-time throwaway comment and, say, starting a long-term campaign to force these vultures out of office.

IMO what will happen is FOXNews will continuously advocate any Democratic Party representatives leaving office while finding "excellent" reasons why the GOP representatives have apologised and atoned.
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Old 20th March 2020, 03:58 AM   #414
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Its interesting to see the different support packages.
In the Netherlands the support for business came with the express instruction that the funds need to be used to pay necessities and will only be given to companies that keep paying their employees. So no resetting contracts to zero hour, or firing people to re-hire them at a reduced salary later.
In the US it appears to be here is a lot of money, have fun.

But maybe I am wrong.
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Old 20th March 2020, 01:02 PM   #415
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Meanwhile, I think we might be seeing some sanity return to the market today...

The panic might finally have dissipated.
You were doing so well with your predictions. Then you say this?

We had a nasty two weeks at the market. But the worst is still to come.

At closing today the Dow was down 913.
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Old 20th March 2020, 01:05 PM   #416
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It was estimated yesterday that in the USA about 2.25 million people filed for unemployment last week. That is a record, but is not yet confirmed.
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Old 20th March 2020, 01:29 PM   #417
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
You were doing so well with your predictions. Then you say this?

We had a nasty two weeks at the market. But the worst is still to come.

At closing today the Dow was down 913.
It wouldn't surprise me if it kept falling - it just had the look of a pause and you'd hope that any pause would give people time to realise this isn't the actual apocalypse.

99% of people are going to live through it and it's all starting to get a bit out of control. It's turned into "Buy toilet paper, sell shares!".
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Old 22nd March 2020, 02:47 AM   #418
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Stagflation could be on the cards. Stagnating economy with wages dropping but prices rising.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 04:32 PM   #419
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Vote on Economus Stimilus fails;

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/polit...ess/index.html

I can't see how this will not cause another bloodbath in the markets tomorrow.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 05:25 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Vote on Economus Stimilus fails;

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/polit...ess/index.html

I can't see how this will not cause another bloodbath in the markets tomorrow.
You mean how futures have hit limit down almost straight away?

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out - the Dems are correct in insisting the relief is directed at workers, not corporations, but whether that subtle point gets through will be the key.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 05:47 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Stagflation could be on the cards. Stagnating economy with wages dropping but prices rising.
Nope, that's not one of the possible outcomes.

Thousands of businesses will close, opening a monstrous number of opportunities for new businesses once it's over.

Inflation might be a problem, but stagflation won't be.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 10:29 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Nope, that's not one of the possible outcomes.

Thousands of businesses will close, opening a monstrous number of opportunities for new businesses once it's over.

Inflation might be a problem, but stagflation won't be.
I think the days of America being the reserve currency of the world are coming to an end.

Bond markets are in shambles.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...020717934.html
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Old 22nd March 2020, 10:40 PM   #423
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I think the days of America being the reserve currency of the world are coming to an end.
Actually, the exact opposite is happening. which is why the USD is at historical highs.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Bond markets are in shambles.
That kind of bonds, I'm not surprised.

Given that a huge number of defaulters is certain I'd say there wouldn't be much harder sells than mortgage bonds right now.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 10:51 PM   #424
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All hail to the next superpower - China. I thought there would be a war between the two countries, but no. USA destroys itself. It will not be able to finance its defence forces because the stock market has fallen so much. Many companies will be insolvent, individuals bankrupt. Politicians no longer respected. Hospitals broken down.
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Old 22nd March 2020, 11:09 PM   #425
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
All hail to the next superpower - China. I thought there would be a war between the two countries, but no. USA destroys itself. It will not be able to finance its defence forces because the stock market has fallen so much. Many companies will be insolvent, individuals bankrupt. Politicians no longer respected. Hospitals broken down.
The US doesn't fund it's military from the stock market, they fund it from bonds and this crisis has knocked bond yields to an all time low.

Also, since when have politicians ever been respected?
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Old 23rd March 2020, 07:17 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I think the days of America being the reserve currency of the world are coming to an end.

Bond markets are in shambles.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...020717934.html
Except, right now, it is. USD is at a record high against the GBP, and only a penny off from a 10 year + high versus the Euro.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 07:37 AM   #427
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I doubt that will last.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 09:49 AM   #428
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Actually, the exact opposite is happening. which is why the USD is at historical highs.
Currently and expected. There is a near automatic response to move assets into dollars when unexpected stress occurs. This is because the US Dollar is widely perceived as the safest liquid asset.

However, the USA seems likely to suffer one of the largest economic declines because the actions we took were later than most other countries. Current estimates of the number of infected people in the USA that haven't been confirmed positive is estimated at 7X higher than confirmed.

In the early days of the Wuhan outbreak there was a lot of dissatisfaction from the draconian measures China took. Now, the Chinese are looking at the West and the USA in particular and shaking their heads. They wonder how could we, who had almost two months more notice than they did, have screwed up things so royally? They also have increased their belief that the Party's leadership is competent and that actions they took were proper.

There will be a major economic power re-alignment but it won't be overnight. My SWAG is about 40% probability by the end of 2020 and 70% by the end of 2021.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 12:56 PM   #429
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
The US doesn't fund it's military from the stock market, they fund it from bonds and this crisis has knocked bond yields to an all time low.

Also, since when have politicians ever been respected?
US Government will be unable to sell bonds to fund its military.

The Fed Goes All In With Unlimited Bond-Buying Plan

This means if you want to borrow money to make capital expenditure then you will not be able to find anyone to lend you the money.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 01:43 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
US Government will be unable to sell bonds to fund its military.

The Fed Goes All In With Unlimited Bond-Buying Plan

This means if you want to borrow money to make capital expenditure then you will not be able to find anyone to lend you the money.
If that happens you would start to see major inflation as a sign, yet despite 10+ years of rhetoric about imminent hyperinflation it just never happened. It turns out that you can borrow trillions in bonds and still undershoot inflation.

Almost every central bank in developed countries has been doing this for well over a decade without serious consequences. It isn't just an American thing.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 04:19 PM   #431
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I doubt that will last.
For that to change other economies would have to be doing better than the US economy. Also much of the world's debt is in US dollars.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 04:23 PM   #432
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
If that happens you would start to see major inflation as a sign, yet despite 10+ years of rhetoric about imminent hyperinflation it just never happened. It turns out that you can borrow trillions in bonds and still undershoot inflation.



Almost every central bank in developed countries has been doing this for well over a decade without serious consequences. It isn't just an American thing.
Neo liberal economic theories are just given lip service now. Friedman's rules about government debt and interest rates don't apply in the real world. The economy is much more complex than simplistic model he pushed.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 05:36 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
However, the USA seems likely to suffer one of the largest economic declines because the actions we took were later than most other countries.
Yeah, I see estimates up to -50%, which is astonishing.

Cost of that would be $US2.5T.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
In the early days of the Wuhan outbreak there was a lot of dissatisfaction from the draconian measures China took. Now, the Chinese are looking at the West and the USA in particular and shaking their heads. They wonder how could we, who had almost two months more notice than they did, have screwed up things so royally? They also have increased their belief that the Party's leadership is competent and that actions they took were proper.
100%.

We're making them look doubleplus smart right now. It amuses me that I said this exact situation would happen all the way back at the start of February, in the first Covid thread.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
There will be a major economic power re-alignment but it won't be overnight. My SWAG is about 40% probability by the end of 2020 and 70% by the end of 2021.
Crikey, I hope you're wrong on that time frame. -50% quarters will look damned good if it goes on for 18 months or more.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 09:31 PM   #434
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It occurred to me that the South Koreans managed to have a better disease outcome, with less warning, and without completely destroying their economy.

If they could do it, surely we could have, although it's too late now.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 10:06 PM   #435
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They also have a different culture in regards to social co-operation and the good of the over all society.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 11:51 PM   #436
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I think many countries that are dealing with it well were hit hard by SARS.
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Old 23rd March 2020, 11:52 PM   #437
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They also tested early, which is by far the main driver of their success - test early & widely.

Pretty obvious stuff when you get down to it.
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Old 24th March 2020, 02:27 PM   #438
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Dow up the most since 1933.

Or, how high can a dead cat bounce?

Mea maxima culpa for thinking sanity was returning to the market.

A 10% increase on the injection of $2T, which is almost all of the cost of Q2 predicted losses.

I'm guessing most of the buyers today have no idea what mathematics is.
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Old 24th March 2020, 02:29 PM   #439
Meadmaker
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Dow up the most since 1933.

Or, how high can a dead cat bounce?

Mea maxima culpa for thinking sanity was returning to the market.

A 10% increase on the injection of $2T, which is almost all of the cost of Q2 predicted losses.

I'm guessing most of the buyers today have no idea what mathematics is.
That's what the reporting is.

My guess is the bigger factor is Trump's outspoken determination to get the economy back on line, regardless of death rate. (He phrases it differently.)

In general, a growing realization that we will go back to work, and the companies, most of them, will still be there.

Carnival up 20% today. Selling is very tempting. I'll think about it.
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Old 24th March 2020, 02:59 PM   #440
calebprime
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I don't know much about computerized short-term trading. There must be investors who are making money with all this volatility. They're the traders I might have read about for whom a few milliseconds difference in the speed of connection to trading makes a difference in profit, and who trade by computer algorithm. They are so much more sophisticated and fast than the average investor that they must be cleaning up. That is, profiting bigly, hugely, from their advantage. The swings must be like updrafts for vultures. The average individual has no chance.

Does anyone know if companies are making money in this environment?

Maybe someone who knows about this (not me) could comment.
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