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Old 24th March 2020, 02:59 PM   #441
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Carnival up 20% today. Selling is very tempting. I'll think about it.
Do it - they'll be closed for 18-24 months, assuming they actually recover a market.
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Old 24th March 2020, 04:03 PM   #442
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
There must be investors who are making money with all this volatility.
If there are, it will blind luck.

Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
Does anyone know if companies are making money in this environment?

Maybe someone who knows about this (not me) could comment.
Out of the market, no. When veteran traders and n00bs alike have no idea what's going on or how it will end, you can bet no investors are even trying. Some lucky punters will be all.

If you mean, are companies making money during the crisis, then yep, lots of them.

Companies supplying consumer goods, supermarkets, pharmaceuticals, and companies in the medical supply chain are all creaming it, along with a select few.

The vast majority are doing it cold turkey.

I must check where life insurance companies are right now, because they're going to be utterly slaughtered. Just paying out on thousands - or even millions - of funeral cover policies in a short space of time will drive some to the wall.
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And to put this Black Swan into historical perspective, the most costly natural disaster to date was the Fukushima Tsunami, at a cost of ~$300 bn.

That will be well under 10% of the cost of this one.
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Old 25th March 2020, 10:14 AM   #443
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We are close to a new bull market (20% increase from bottom). Time for fools to jump in.

But before you do, take some time and read this by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

It models a large set of possible mitigations for both the UK and USA and the impact over the next 6 to 18 months depending on strategy. It covers a variety of NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) including an approach similar to the "Hammer and the Dance" approach mentioned in the COVID thread last week which shows a significantly reduce death toll which would be <500k in the USA. It beats 2M+. But it is also the most disruptive.

Pick your poison.

None of them even remotely suggest we are going back to work by Easter.
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Old 25th March 2020, 11:09 AM   #444
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
We are close to a new bull market (20% increase from bottom). Time for fools to jump in.
They are, with both feet.

On a stimulus that pays for almost half the losses already locked in.
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Old 27th March 2020, 06:44 PM   #445
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I see people finally noticed the cat was dead and Dow is down 1000 today, with plenty more to come.

One very interesting thing - China is all back at work and raring to go.

Except they have no orders, because the rest of the world is shut now. (on Bloomberg, but I'm tapped out there, so I can't even copy the URL)

That immediate return to growth they thought they were headed for isn't looking too flash right now, and when the market catches up with that there will be more pain.
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Old 28th March 2020, 03:27 AM   #446
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I see people finally noticed the cat was dead and Dow is down 1000 today, with plenty more to come.

One very interesting thing - China is all back at work and raring to go.

Except they have no orders, because the rest of the world is shut now. (on Bloomberg, but I'm tapped out there, so I can't even copy the URL)

That immediate return to growth they thought they were headed for isn't looking too flash right now, and when the market catches up with that there will be more pain.
When the rest of the world comes out of lockdown they will want whatever China supplies to them as there would none in stock. This will take a few weeks to ship. So China should start producing soon so that they can fill orders that will come.

Of course if China then imports the virus the whole process starts again.
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Old 28th March 2020, 11:27 AM   #447
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
When the rest of the world comes out of lockdown they will want whatever China supplies to them as there would none in stock.
Except there will be - all the retailers and warehouses are fully stocked right now. The supplies for work in progress are already held.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This will take a few weeks to ship. So China should start producing soon so that they can fill orders that will come.
I don't doubt they'll do that to a degree, but those companies are all privately-held, and can't go building ghost cities like the government can - capital is stretched to the limit already and producing goods that you might have to sit on for six months won't be an option.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Of course if China then imports the virus the whole process starts again.
If there's anywhere that might be able to stop that, it's definitely China.
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Old 29th March 2020, 06:50 PM   #448
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The $2 trillion US economic stimulus isn't going to be enough. My opinion is that this is primarily because Americans are only going to get $1,200 instead of $12,000. It will be spent on the same day it is received to pay past due bills.

During the summer another economic stimulus will be distributed for $5 trillion or more because it will be necessary.
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Old 29th March 2020, 07:30 PM   #449
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The $2 trillion US economic stimulus isn't going to be enough.
Yep, I did the maths earlier.

Q2 will cost USA $2.5T, so the $2T so far doesn't even cover that, then there's going to a be a cost in Q1, (maybe $300 Bn) and after that, I'd expect at least another $1T in Q3.

On that basis, and a return to normal by September, there needs to be another $2T later.

I think your $7T overall is a little high.
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Old 1st April 2020, 02:21 AM   #450
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I see a few of those dead cats are starting to smell.

The downwards march re-commences.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:48 PM   #451
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You have to wonder how stupid the recent investors are when the bounce created dissipates under a trivial 300k increase in US unemployment when then are already 10 million+ locked in.

Meanwhile, the estimates of global cost keep moving up as fast as the death count, with Asian Development Bank the latest at $US4.1T.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/120817...spitals-buckle
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Old 3rd April 2020, 08:33 PM   #452
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The ftse closed the week at 5415

It first traded there in january 1998

It is the worst performing western style index I can see, but then they decided to take a gargantuan hit to their economy with Brexit.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 10:20 PM   #453
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The first US bank has failed as a result of this crisis.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fd...sis-2020-04-03

A small bank in West Virginia went under.

It won't be the last.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 10:39 PM   #454
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The ftse closed the week at 5415

It first traded there in january 1998

It is the worst performing western style index I can see, but then they decided to take a gargantuan hit to their economy with Brexit.
What does algo say?
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:46 PM   #455
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Originally Posted by Scopedog View Post
What does algo say?
Put your head between your legs and kiss your *** goodbye?!
Nikkei closed at level first seen 1986.

Last edited by Samson; 3rd April 2020 at 11:47 PM.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:55 PM   #456
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
A small bank in West Virginia went under.

It won't be the last.
Dead right.

You wouldn't want to be in the funeral insurance business right now, either - they are going to get savaged and screw up all the nice underwriting algorithms, because you can bet they don't have a global pandemic targeting 65+ age groups in the program.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Put your head between your legs and kiss your *** goodbye?!
Nikkei closed at level first seen 1986.
That's because people outside America are realists, against the utter dreamers who are still throwing money at the Dow.

I'm still shaking my head that the market fell on a 300k increase in unemployment. I'd expect US unemployment to be well in excess of 25 million by the time this is over.

Robertson certainly called it right when he said it would be like WWII, financially.

I gotta say, all those years of paying down debt looks like a good plan right now. We should come out of this pretty well.

Thank you, Michael Cullen! (I assume he's still kicking?)
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Old 4th April 2020, 12:31 AM   #457
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Cullen...
I say to my friends, stay alive and watch this unfold.
Disclosure, I have hardly left home let alone the country in decades. Wanderlust is the undoing of ecology.
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Old 6th April 2020, 08:37 PM   #458
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Hey TA. That was a pretty big bounce today. Are you sure this cat is dead?


I think there's a lot of optimism in the market right now. I'm not certain it's deserved. It looks to me like the final result of this virus might not be as bad as expected. The bad news, from an investor standpoint, is that it seems the reason is that social distancing is working. But that means it has to keep being done, which means further and longer lasting economic pain.

That will be the big challenge. Can we get back to normal life, including normal commerce, in time to prevent bank failures and lots of corporate bankruptcies?

We see one day at a time. Today was a good day.
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Old 6th April 2020, 10:40 PM   #459
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Hey TA. That was a pretty big bounce today. Are you sure this cat is dead?
Yeah, complete dreamers who are now confusing progress against Covid with less economic pain, but they're wrong.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think there's a lot of optimism in the market right now. I'm not certain it's deserved. It looks to me like the final result of this virus might not be as bad as expected. The bad news, from an investor standpoint, is that it seems the reason is that social distancing is working. But that means it has to keep being done, which means further and longer lasting economic pain.
Bang on the money all the way.
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Old 7th April 2020, 01:34 AM   #460
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Hey TA. That was a pretty big bounce today. Are you sure this cat is dead?
No idea, I wouldn't dream of attempting to call the market.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, complete dreamers who are now confusing progress against Covid with less economic pain, but they're wrong.
The market tends to overbuy and then oversell as Fear overtakes Fear Of Missing Out in the trading herd.
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Old 7th April 2020, 01:40 AM   #461
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With SP500 trading at just 20% under all time highs in this pandemic I doff my hat to the lord of the bulls.

I have no idea how this all works.
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Old 7th April 2020, 08:39 AM   #462
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
With SP500 trading at just 20% under all time highs in this pandemic I doff my hat to the lord of the bulls.

I have no idea how this all works.
Endless fiat money thrown at capital markets. The destruction of the saver and the worker to prevent the super-rich from losing, ever.
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Old 7th April 2020, 01:34 PM   #463
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
Endless fiat money thrown at capital markets. The destruction of the saver and the worker to prevent the super-rich from losing, ever.
Bingo.

It's easy to speculate with someone else's money, and I'll just check the costs again, because it looked too low the first time I worked it out..

***If I borrow a billion dollars at an interest rate of zero, that's... ($1,000,000,000 x 0 =$0) yep. Zero.***

Yeah, I was right, it costs nothing! And if you lose the whole lot, you never need to pay it back, because the World Champion of Chapter 11 bankruptcies is running the America!

USA FTW!

(It is nice to see where all the US stimulus money is going, though.)
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Old 8th April 2020, 05:20 PM   #464
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I'm wondering if I'm on acid, or everyone buying shares is.

At this rate, those TVIX will be a buy again shortly.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:48 PM   #465
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Pretty sure it's the buyers on acid.

Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

Quote:
Earlier this week, a UN study said 81% of the world's workforce of 3.3 billion people had had their place of work fully or partly closed because of the outbreak.
And...

Quote:
Latest figures show 16 million people [in USA] have now lost their jobs, with layoffs spreading across the economy
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Old 9th April 2020, 01:45 PM   #466
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Since each platform I used recently went bust I have been on a siesta.
I am confident I would be losing my shirt selling SP500 progressively on the back foot. Quite incredible, Libor says interest rates rise quickly I am told, which makes sense for anyone like me who wonders who has all the money to lend me.

Disclosure, I am obviously not an economist.

Last edited by Samson; 9th April 2020 at 01:46 PM.
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Old 9th April 2020, 05:50 PM   #467
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Libor says interest rates rise quickly I am told, which makes sense for anyone like me who wonders who has all the money to lend me.

Disclosure, I am obviously not an economist.
The last sentence is redundant, mate!

Libor is using the same acid as investors if they're saying interest rates will rise. I see them being close to zero for years.

The money being created is just that - money being printed (metaphorically) by central banks. Of course, that's never happened before (Weimar, Zimbabwe...) and never had any negative consequences.

This time, I don't see where inflationary pressure will come from, given the enormous unemployment that will be a feature for some time. Tourism alone accounted for 300 million jobs (10% of all paying jobs) in 2017 and I bet it's shot up since then. That's 10% of employment that just disappeared and won't come back quickly.

I did an analysis of business types with notes how they will do post-Covid and it's not good, with the vast majority of businesses likely to be under pressure. Here it is if you want to check it out: http://charman.co.nz/pcb.odt
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Old 9th April 2020, 06:32 PM   #468
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The last sentence is redundant, mate!

Libor is using the same acid as investors if they're saying interest rates will rise. I see them being close to zero for years.

The money being created is just that - money being printed (metaphorically) by central banks. Of course, that's never happened before (Weimar, Zimbabwe...) and never had any negative consequences.

This time, I don't see where inflationary pressure will come from, given the enormous unemployment that will be a feature for some time. Tourism alone accounted for 300 million jobs (10% of all paying jobs) in 2017 and I bet it's shot up since then. That's 10% of employment that just disappeared and won't come back quickly.

I did an analysis of business types with notes how they will do post-Covid and it's not good, with the vast majority of businesses likely to be under pressure. Here it is if you want to check it out: http://charman.co.nz/pcb.odt
If you check link it looks blank.
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:01 PM   #469
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
If you check link it looks blank.
Should open a check box to open the document.

Try it as a .doc file: http://charman.co.nz/pcb.doc
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:04 PM   #470
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Or if that doesn't work, a couple of .png files:

http://charman.co.nz/pcb1.png
http://charman.co.nz/pcb2.png
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:08 PM   #471
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Or if that doesn't work, a couple of .png files:

http://charman.co.nz/pcb1.png
http://charman.co.nz/pcb2.png
ok that works thanks
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:20 PM   #472
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One to add.
Amenity plant production

(indoor, outdoor, all grades, sizes)
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Old 12th April 2020, 08:03 PM   #473
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Since each platform I used recently went bust I have been on a siesta.
I am confident I would be losing my shirt selling SP500 progressively on the back foot. Quite incredible, Libor says interest rates rise quickly I am told, which makes sense for anyone like me who wonders who has all the money to lend me.

Disclosure, I am obviously not an economist.
What platforms did you use.
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Old 12th April 2020, 08:37 PM   #474
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I will predict the market will be a bull market on Tuesday. If you want to put your money on the market falling then I suggest you will lose.
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Old 12th April 2020, 10:13 PM   #475
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I will predict the market will be a bull market on Tuesday. If you want to put your money on the market falling then I suggest you will lose.
Dow futures down 300 says you're wrong.

I can only see one way the market goes - further down.

Sooner or later "investors"* will realise that with over 20% unemployment every sector will make less profit.

*In parentheses because people driving the markets up over the past week have been dreamers, not investors.
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Old 12th April 2020, 10:15 PM   #476
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sooner or later "investors"* will realise that with over 20% unemployment every sector will make less profit.
This year.

But that shouldn't have much effect on the stock price, except of companies that are at risk of bankruptcy as a result of the loss of revenue.


What will actually happen? Hard to say. Markets often follow short term fluctuations in profit, even thought they shouldn't. Usually, a prediction of short term losses or reduced profits would be associated with a prediction of a lower stock price.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 12th April 2020 at 10:17 PM.
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Old 13th April 2020, 09:34 AM   #477
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Dow futures down 300 says you're wrong.

I can only see one way the market goes - further down.

Sooner or later "investors"* will realise that with over 20% unemployment every sector will make less profit.

*In parentheses because people driving the markets up over the past week have been dreamers, not investors.
Dreamers can move the markets just as much as investors. And I'm not convinced there's much difference between the two. But as Warren Buffet likes to say "in the short term, the markets are a voting machine. In the long term, they're a weighing machine".
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Old 13th April 2020, 09:52 AM   #478
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Dreamers can move the markets just as much as investors. And I'm not convinced there's much difference between the two.
Dreamers can certainly move the market, but the two streams are actually easy to tell apart.

Dreamers hope they pick a market trend. Investors ignore market trends and look at long-term viability of the individual company.
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Old 13th April 2020, 03:49 PM   #479
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Bubbles that are going to burst.


Sports in general are in trouble but the Football/Soccer bubble has been overinflated to a ridiculous extent for years.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ball_transfers
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Old 13th April 2020, 04:38 PM   #480
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I will predict the market will be a bull market on Tuesday. If you want to put your money on the market falling then I suggest you will lose.
You got cut to pieces on that one, mate. As signalled by futures, down 400 points.
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