Black Swan Event Under Way

[Meadmaker]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

This seems like betting on people panicking, not on the actual risk itself.

Indeed.

And while it's a safe bet people will panic, it's not a safe bet for how long they will panic. They might already be done panicking.

In other words, stock prices have already plunged, and if I were a short term trader I would bet that they will drop at the open on Monday, as low level traders (i.e. people like us) spend a weekend thinking about how much they lost last week when they were too busy working to pay attention, and they decide to sell.

But at some point, the smart money will swoop in and take up the panic money. Will that happen at noon on Monday, or some time in 2021?

If I, or anyone else, knew that answer, they would be rich.

[The Great Zaganza]

The Market will recover, but there is too much uncertainty to fuel a rise similar to 2019.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

This seems like betting on people panicking, not on the actual risk itself.

Panic is a factor, but it's the smallest factor.

The reasons for the drop are more or less in the following order:

50% over-valuation, mainly due to:
Absurdly cheap funding, and driven by:
A bull run that had become permanent in many eyes

Then all that got hit by the virus, which means, in physical terms:

Slowdown in manufacturing, which caused:
Breaks in the supply chain, which causes:
Reduced economic activity, and consequently:
Reduced profits

The markets have priced in the drop in economic activity, and are now being driven by a combination of fear and margin calls. Many people leveraged their way into the market by margin trading, and if you're on a 10% margin, when the market drops 10% you have to pay to stay in, or sell right away, and in this type of market a lot of people pull the plug.

[The Atheist]

Prediction for the immediate future:

Even steeper falls now it's out in the wild, which will cause panic to set in.

As it becomes clearer the world isn't going to end, buyers will return, possibly by the end of the week, although it might take a couple of weeks.

Still headed into bear territory, which looks to happen Wed/Thurs.

[xterra]

Is Wednesday the day you intend to start buying?

If so, what?

If not, why not and when?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by xterra

Is Wednesday the day you intend to start buying?

If so, what?

If not, why not and when?

No, I don't generally buy shares and am happy just to scoop a win and get out.

If I were investing, I'd be very wary of getting back into the sharemarket quickly - the repercussions of this could take a long while to overcome. We'll probably be looking at total losses of $20-30 trillion at the end of it all, and that kind of hit isn't easy to pick up from. China's growth rate for the first quarter is likely to be zero, and they aren't done with it yet.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Panic is a factor, but it's the smallest factor.

The reasons for the drop are more or less in the following order:

50% over-valuation, mainly due to:
Absurdly cheap funding, and driven by:
A bull run that had become permanent in many eyes

Then all that got hit by the virus, which means, in physical terms:

Slowdown in manufacturing, which caused:
Breaks in the supply chain, which causes:
Reduced economic activity, and consequently:
Reduced profits

The markets have priced in the drop in economic activity, and are now being driven by a combination of fear and margin calls. Many people leveraged their way into the market by margin trading, and if you're on a 10% margin, when the market drops 10% you have to pay to stay in, or sell right away, and in this type of market a lot of people pull the plug.

Have you factored in the recent announcements from Microsoft, Sky, BHP, RIO, BlackRock (for example) saying they are going Carbon Negative, or Net Zero emissions through history?

The biggest companies are now banking on attracting business by being net zero.

They've divested all fossil fuel investments, and it's now a battleground to dump any assets that are going to be stranded.

Anyone who didn't plan for this has missed the boat long after it was announced would be launching.

Where would you place this influence that relates to panic in the list of factors in the Black Swan event?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-t...064704508.html

https://theconservativeinvestordaily...n-environment/

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

The markets have priced in the drop in economic activity, and are now being driven by a combination of fear and margin calls. Many people leveraged their way into the market by margin trading, and if you're on a 10% margin, when the market drops 10% you have to pay to stay in, or sell right away, and in this type of market a lot of people pull the plug.

Then you have the Warren Buffets and contrarian investors who might use some spare cash on some emerging (Asian) market investing.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

Indeed.

And while it's a safe bet people will panic, it's not a safe bet for how long they will panic. They might already be done panicking.

In other words, stock prices have already plunged, and if I were a short term trader I would bet that they will drop at the open on Monday, as low level traders (i.e. people like us) spend a weekend thinking about how much they lost last week when they were too busy working to pay attention, and they decide to sell.

But at some point, the smart money will swoop in and take up the panic money. Will that happen at noon on Monday, or some time in 2021?

If I, or anyone else, knew that answer, they would be rich.

Yes.

It's good to be able to count your level of risk based on losses in your planned timeframe.

And to count your birds in your hand.

You don't want to worry about what extra profit you might not have made.

[lionking]

Can I just add that, regardless of how many people use the term, this is not a “Black Swan Event” at all? Not only have we been here before many times, but governments know how to respond.

Yes, it’s fun imagining economic collapse and Armageddon (and some in this thread do seem to enjoy the possibility of a major recession) but the reality will, I believe, be far different. Meanwhile the news here leads with a 78 year old dying from the virus. Give me strength...

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Have you factored in the recent announcements from Microsoft, Sky, BHP, RIO, BlackRock (for example) saying they are going Carbon Negative, or Net Zero emissions through history?

No. That's longer term, and right now the focus is solely on the slowdown caused by the virus.

It's good to see some of the worst guys trying to do something, but as noted in the covid-19 thread, the enormousness of the downturn has already reduced carbon emissions by massive amounts.

What's bad for humans might be good for everything else.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Then you have the Warren Buffets and contrarian investors who might use some spare cash on some emerging (Asian) market investing.

They'd want to be fairly careful about when they got in, if it bursts out again in China - as I pick it will once they return to work - you wouldn't want to be on any stocks, anywhere.

A good pick would be if you could figure who will be first with either a vaccine or successful treatment - whoever does that is guaranteed many billions of dollars and a stock that goes ballistic. There are a couple of companies showing promise whose shares have already been hiked considerably.

Originally Posted by lionking

Can I just add that, regardless of how many people use the term, this is not a “Black Swan Event” at all?

Time will tell, but I'm certainly picking a low well under a 20% drop. In fact, I think it's going to get close to suspension tomorrow morning with the news of the wild outbreak in USA.

Originally Posted by lionking

Not only have we been here before many times, but governments know how to respond.

You're showing your total lack of economics knowledge there, sorry.

We've never been here before, in terms of a market trying to get to grips with a pandemic.

As for governments knowing what to do, you're in fairy land. It was explained to you way up the thread that governments have no armaments to fight this. They can't print their way out if when all classes of assets are falling and demand is zero.

Easing is therefore pointless, interest rates are already zero, so can't be cut, and whether there's money in the bin to spend on infrastructure looks unlikely because most governments will be spending like mad to keep their countries' businesses and employers afloat. Take a look at how many billion China is tipping into their domestic economy just to stay alive. And you can bet USA won't be ordering 10% of their population into house arrest, so their bill will be considerably larger.

Originally Posted by lionking

Yes, it’s fun imagining economic collapse and Armageddon...

Is it? Why is it fun?

I don't see much joy in it, because as always, the poorest people will be the worst affected. If Jeff Bezos loses $50 billion, he'll still have enough billions left to not be too concerned. If someone renting a cheap home gets kicked out, they're screwed.

Originally Posted by lionking

... but the reality will, I believe, be far different.

Put your money where your mouth is and buy some shares then.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

No. That's longer term, and right now the focus is solely on the slowdown caused by the virus.

It's good to see some of the worst guys trying to do something, but as noted in the covid-19 thread, the enormousness of the downturn has already reduced carbon emissions by massive amounts.

What's bad for humans might be good for everything else.



They'd want to be fairly careful about when they got in, if it bursts out again in China - as I pick it will once they return to work - you wouldn't want to be on any stocks, anywhere.

A good pick would be if you could figure who will be first with either a vaccine or successful treatment - whoever does that is guaranteed many billions of dollars and a stock that goes ballistic. There are a couple of companies showing promise whose shares have already been hiked considerably.



Time will tell, but I'm certainly picking a low well under a 20% drop. In fact, I think it's going to get close to suspension tomorrow morning with the news of the wild outbreak in USA.



You're showing your total lack of economics knowledge there, sorry.

We've never been here before, in terms of a market trying to get to grips with a pandemic.

As for governments knowing what to do, you're in fairy land. It was explained to you way up the thread that governments have no armaments to fight this. They can't print their way out if when all classes of assets are falling and demand is zero.

Easing is therefore pointless, interest rates are already zero, so can't be cut, and whether there's money in the bin to spend on infrastructure looks unlikely because most governments will be spending like mad to keep their countries' businesses and employers afloat. Take a look at how many billion China is tipping into their domestic economy just to stay alive. And you can bet USA won't be ordering 10% of their population into house arrest, so their bill will be considerably larger.



Is it? Why is it fun?

I don't see much joy in it, because as always, the poorest people will be the worst affected. If Jeff Bezos loses $50 billion, he'll still have enough billions left to not be too concerned. If someone renting a cheap home gets kicked out, they're screwed.



Put your money where your mouth is and buy some shares then.

Jumping the gun again. Why?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...idemic-health/

Quote:

Coronavirus is not a pandemic, at least not yet. That was the message from the World Health Organization's Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a briefing Wednesday.

“We should not be too eager to declare a pandemic without a careful and clear-minded analysis of the facts," he said, noting appeals for a declaration from some politicians and journalists.

Come back when it is a pandemic and it starts to kill people at more than a small fraction of the flu.

You have bought into the panic spread by the internet and mass media. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail, panic doesn’t prevail and that this will fade away like SARS before it.

[a_unique_person]

Our own Health officials are using the word "pandemic".

Quote:

Australia's group of state and federal medical officers, convening daily, usually by phone hook-up, is the peak point of the pure medical advice, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC). No politicians sit in on their meetings.

From there, the medical advice goes to the policymakers in the National Security Committee of the federal cabinet, and this is where the politicians get involved. The NSC is chaired by the Prime Minister. This is where decisions are made and action taken. Or not.
The medical officers' "pandemic" call was a big moment. For a start, they were way ahead of the UN body that is supposedly the lead global agency on international health emergencies, the Geneva-based World Health Organisation.

Why were the Australians ahead of the world? For a very simple reason. They don't trust the WHO. The information from multiple international sources is that the WHO is under intense pressure from the Chinese government, and succumbing to it.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...45hr.html?btis

[marting]

Originally Posted by lionking

Come back when it is a pandemic and it starts to kill people at more than a small fraction of the flu.

Do some math. It's at the earliest stages of a pandemic. It's infectious as hell and unlike the flu that is endemic, the population has no immunity to it and it kills about 10x more people that get it than the flu.

Quote:

You have bought into the panic spread by the internet and mass media. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail, panic doesn’t prevail and that this will fade away like SARS before it.

Zero chance. There has been and continues to be strong data showing how it is far, far, more infectious than SARS. This isn't fake news.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by lionking

Jumping the gun again. Why?

I'd say more, "ahead of the game", myself.

When I made the call on the sharemarket, the markets were at their highest ever, and TVIX was at its lowest ever.

It must have escaped you that the markets are down 13% and TVIX up 250%.

So far, I'd say I'm right on track.

(I won't even mention the shifting goalposts of market state to whether it's a pandemic or not)

Originally Posted by lionking

Come back when it is a pandemic and it starts to kill people at more than a small fraction of the flu.

Don't worry, I'll be here all the way.

You do realise that pandemics start small? With one case, generally, and that's known to have happened with this one. In three months, that single infection has caused 85,000 cases, several thousand deaths and, according to the world's foremost voice on epidemics, is highly likely to be a pandemic.

Originally Posted by lionking

You have bought into the panic spread by the internet and mass media.

Hard to see how I could have bought into mass panic when I was clearly in front of everyone else. Also, I don't care what mass media has to say, and if you want to check, all of my posts on the subject in all of the threads, are based on evidence and maths.

Like I've said, some people can do the maths, and if an exponential increase in cases outside China isn't letting you in on it, you'll see it when the hospitals are crushed under the numbers.

Originally Posted by lionking

Hopefully wiser heads will prevail, panic doesn’t prevail and that this will fade away like SARS before it.

All that, and it's "hopefully"?

I hope you're right that it fades away.

However, because I work on facts, evidence and logic, my hopes are at an all-time low and my best hopes for the disease are that it isn't as fatal as current statistics show and that we can at least slow the spread to try to keep hospitals open.

Check back at the end of the week and see how our various hopes are panning out.

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I hope you're right that it fades away.

However, because I work on facts, evidence and logic, my hopes are at an all-time low and my best hopes for the disease are that it isn't as fatal as current statistics show and that we can at least slow the spread to try to keep hospitals open.

"Facts are Stubborn Things" - John Adams

[Minoosh]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Like I've said, some people can do the maths, and if an exponential increase in cases outside China isn't letting you in on it, you'll see it when the hospitals are crushed under the numbers.

It depends on the exponent.

Whatever happens, a widely recognized equities bubble was due for popping. I would like to think we’ve seen the worst, but I doubt it.

ETA: I’ll check the other threads but am curious what’s the main hospital treatment. If it’s IV fluids, that can be managed without hospitalization.

[xjx388]

FUD, pure and simple. Some people and industries profit on it. Disappointing, really.

[Minoosh]

Originally Posted by xjx388

FUD, pure and simple. Some people and industries profit on it. Disappointing, really.

It's like there are 2 interwoven epidemics: The literal viral one, the other a spreading fear that does not strike me as 100 percent rational.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Minoosh

It's like there are 2 interwoven epidemics: The literal viral one, the other a spreading fear that does not strike me as 100 percent rational.

Not 100% rational, but hardly irrational - fear of the unknown, plus it's certainly a good factor worse than influenza.

The slowdown in the economy is real though.

Have you seen what's happened to China?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/w...scn/index.html

[The Atheist]

NZ, being the first market in the world to open, is off 200 points straight away.

[Minoosh]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Not 100% rational, but hardly irrational - fear of the unknown, plus it's certainly a good factor worse than influenza.

The slowdown in the economy is real though.

Have you seen what's happened to China?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/w...scn/index.html

I have very mixed feelings. My IRA was looking good on paper, but I knew that wasn't sustainable. I'd rather see stock values that reflect reality. It's nice to see the atmosphere getting a break, though.

I'm used to ignoring fears about pandemics. This time I'm afraid of the fear of the pandemic.

[portlandatheist]

It really doesn't matter that much whether our personal fears of the virus are rational or irrational, but whether we collectively freak out and if we do, the markets will freak out too. I think we are seeing just the beginning of the market freaking out.

[a_unique_person]

Australian stock market drops again.

[angrysoba]

lionking, seriously, the writing is on the wall in terms of pandemic. The only things that are unknown is just how many people will be effected and whether any factors will slow its progress. We can certainly hope so, and hopefully the Southern Hemisphere won’t be affected so much except for some travellers coming in.

[a_unique_person]

There doesn't need to be panic on the stock market but it is always overly sensitive to such events, especially when people know it has been artificially inflated to unrealistic levels by Trump.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

lionking, seriously, the writing is on the wall in terms of pandemic. The only things that are unknown is just how many people will be effected and whether any factors will slow its progress. We can certainly hope so, and hopefully the Southern Hemisphere won’t be affected so much except for some travellers coming in.

Does a flu pandemic hit every year? Maybe, but I haven’t read about in large font headlines.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by lionking

Does a flu pandemic hit every year? Maybe, but I haven’t read about in large font headlines.

Are you shifting your position from “no pandemic” to “pandemics happen all the time”?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by lionking

Does a flu pandemic hit every year? Maybe, but I haven’t read about in large font headlines.

Get with the program, mate.

Each year, lots of people are immune to influenza, and lots of people are vaccinated.

This one, nobody's immune and nobody's vaccinated. Then factor in that it's 10 - 100 times as deadly as influenza.

I can understand you wanting to be optimistic, but if you think this is "just another 'flu", you're completely out of touch.

No doubt when the hospitals start overflowing you'll get the picture. Did you think China built two hospitals just for fun? Maybe they do it every 'flu season?
________________________________

Meanwhile, dead cats evident in the market right now.

[angrysoba]

Anyway, in answer to lionking, no, a seasonal flu is not the same as a pandemic.

From the CDC:

Quote:

Influenza is one of the world’s greatest infectious disease challenges. But did you know that seasonal flu and pandemic flu are not the same?

What is seasonal flu?

Influenza (flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by flu A and B viruses that infect the human respiratory tract. Annual flu epidemics occur among people worldwide.

What is pandemic flu?

A flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new flu A virus in people that is very different from current and recently circulating seasonal flu A viruses.

How often do seasonal flu epidemics occur?

Epidemics of seasonal flu happen every year. Fall and winter is the time for flu in the United States.

How often do flu pandemics occur?

Flu pandemics happen rarely. Four flu pandemics have happened in the past 100 years, but experts agree another one is inevitable.

All of that might explain why the headlines are written in bigger font this year, lionking.

[a_unique_person]

Asian markets open higher, Australian stock exchange bounces back! I would like to think the stock market prices worked on something better than herd mentality.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Asian markets open higher, Australian stock exchange bounces back! I would like to think the stock market prices worked on something better than herd mentality.

I think that's all about China's vastly reduced new case and death daily totals, plus the fact that Beijing is going to spend many billions helping out companies that have borne the brunt of the closure.

My pick is, this is a dead cat bounce that will be destroyed when it starts to bite in USA by the end of the week.

I see the current situation a bit like the phony way in late 1939 - the overall numbers don't look too bad and everything appears to be holding, but the key is the exponential growth outside China. That will hit USA this week - because of the long incubation period there's a significant lag between infections and busting out in the open, and the way cases have sprung up at multiple sites in USA is a guide al hell's about to break loose.

I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see a way out.

I'd say USA will pass South Korea in March, which will be a good effort, with SK having a 4000 head start.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

No. That's longer term, and right now the focus is solely on the slowdown caused by the virus.

It's good to see some of the worst guys trying to do something, but as noted in the covid-19 thread, the enormousness of the downturn has already reduced carbon emissions by massive amounts.

What's bad for humans might be good for everything else.

I've got too much happening here to be following that.

Could you link me to something you think is useful, please?

Originally Posted by The Atheist

A good pick would be if you could figure who will be first with either a vaccine or successful treatment - whoever does that is guaranteed many billions of dollars and a stock that goes ballistic. There are a couple of companies showing promise whose shares have already been hiked considerably.

I saw a vaccine announced 2 weeks ago by one pharma company that are now about to start tests on humans.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Time will tell, but I'm certainly picking a low well under a 20% drop. In fact, I think it's going to get close to suspension tomorrow morning with the news of the wild outbreak in USA.

My very small portfolio has lost 1.6% since 1 Jan.

The ASX 200 Total Returns Index is down 3% this year.

(The ASX 200 Total Returns Index is still up 113% over the past 10 years.)

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

I've got too much happening here to be following that.

Could you link me to something you think is useful, please?

Sure - excellent graphic illustration of it here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

I saw a vaccine announced 2 weeks ago by one pharma company that are now about to start tests on humans.

Yeah, an Israeli company, and they claim to have started human trials.

There's no independent verification of it, and it comes at a time when Bibi is desperate for some good news, so I'm treating it with a fairly sceptical view at the moment.

I think by far the better bet is an anti-viral helping, and that's probably about 50% chance at best. A vaccine this calendar year would be a major feat.

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

My very small portfolio has lost 1.6% since 1 Jan.

The ASX 200 Total Returns Index is down 3% this year.

(The ASX 200 Total Returns Index is still up 113% over the past 10 years.)

Yeah, long-term holders won't be too damaged, because the losses are all on paper, and no matter how bad things get. 99% of the population will be alive at the end of it and business will return to normal

The only question is how long the recovery takes, because as I mentioned to lionking, there aren't many tricks left to exploit after a decade of printing money.

[William Parcher]

The Dow is up nearly 600 points right now so this is no Black Monday. This is happening simultaneously with lots of bad news on the virus.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by William Parcher

The Dow is up nearly 600 points right now so this is no Black Monday. This is happening simultaneously with lots of bad news on the virus.

Yep, I have to admit to being quite surprised, but the weight of China's & Japan's response in opening their wallets outweighed the bad news.

The other factor is the numbers are very small outside of China, Italy, Iran & South Korea. Once the growth factor kicks in around USA, I think you'll be able to see this as wishful thinking.

[The Atheist]

This:

Quote:

The OECD forecast the global economy could recover to 3.3% growth in 2021, assuming the epidemic peaked in China in the first quarter of this year and other outbreaks proved mild and contained.

I don't believe either of those things are even slightly likely. Many people are in ga-ga land over this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51700935

[Minoosh]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Asian markets open higher, Australian stock exchange bounces back! I would like to think the stock market prices worked on something better than herd mentality.

A lot of it is herd mentality. It just occurred to me that at month's end there usually is more activity as institutional investors buy/sell per some overarching formula.

Depressions are a mystery to me. When markets crashed in 1929, it's not like suddenly there was a lot less stuff, but as years went by that changed. Maybe as a result of hoarding? Companies might avoid re-investing, meaning productivity would fall. But then WWII, during which vast sums were spent on destruction and huge debts racked up, somehow pulled the world back into prosperity. I don't get it.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Minoosh

But then WWII, during which vast sums were spent on destruction and huge debts racked up, somehow pulled the world back into prosperity. I don't get it.

That's an easy one - USA spent an enormous sum of money in the Marshall Plan, which stimulated the world economy at the time it needed it most.

You're also maybe under-estimating how long it took to drag the world out of the economic state. UK still had rationing for years after the war finished. It took some of the victors longer to grow than some of the vanquished.

The Great Depression was more to do with the sheer volume of money thrown at the sharemarket. Pretty well everyone had all their eggs in the same single basket.

[Meadmaker]

Originally Posted by Minoosh

Depressions are a mystery to me. When markets crashed in 1929, it's not like suddenly there was a lot less stuff.

The dust bowl was a major contributor. There was less stuff, particularly food.

In the case of the potential coronavirus recession, supply chain disruption would result in less stuff.

However, modern communications and transportation allows producers to react more quickly, so recessions tend to be shorter.