Black Swan Event Under Way - Page 5

William Parcher · 2nd March 2020, 03:06 PM

CNN: The Dow finished up 1,294 points, or 5.1%, making it its best one-day point gain on record. On a percentage basis, Monday was its best day since March 2009.

The Atheist · 2nd March 2020, 04:11 PM

Lot of jumping the gun, I feel, but give it a while.

Meadmaker · 2nd March 2020, 04:14 PM

Dead cat? Or correction of the correction?

The Atheist · 2nd March 2020, 07:37 PM

I'd bet my life on dead cat.

Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus.

Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up.

IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic.

Meadmaker · 2nd March 2020, 08:13 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'd bet my life on dead cat.

Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus.

Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up.

IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic.

Well I did my part by selling 50 shares of Nvidia, about $14,000. It ended up with some large gains today, although my sale price was higher than the final closing price. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Don · 3rd March 2020, 01:55 AM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

Dead cat? Or correction of the correction?

Excellent question.

The market is driven my sentiment, so perhaps it was oversold in a week when emotions were running high. A weekend for reflection and positive comments and action from central banks may mean that the recent gains are the market taking a more sober view.

Then again a number of pundits have been saying that the markets, and in particular the US market is a bubble fuelled by cheap money and deficit spending and that a major correction is well overdue.

I'm utterly rubbish at picking the market which is why I've been investing a few hundred pounds a month for the last thirty-odd years in the hope that it'll all average out

.

William Parcher · 3rd March 2020, 05:11 PM

Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days.

The Atheist · 3rd March 2020, 05:31 PM

Originally Posted by William Parcher

Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days.

Nah, I thought it was the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and even staked my life on it:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'd bet my life on dead cat.

It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue.

Tippit · 3rd March 2020, 05:59 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue.

TIVX is rocking. I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below?

Tippit · 3rd March 2020, 06:13 PM

So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they?

The Atheist · 3rd March 2020, 06:59 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

TIVX is rocking.

I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits.

If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37.

Such is life.

Originally Posted by Tippit

I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below?

Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again.

Originally Posted by Tippit

So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they?

Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!

marting · 3rd March 2020, 10:02 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits.

If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37.

Such is life.

Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again.

Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!

Guess what happens to bank accounts when it's cheaper to hold cash than keep it in a bank? It ain't pretty.

a_unique_person · 4th March 2020, 03:08 AM

Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now.

Meadmaker · 4th March 2020, 09:15 AM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now.

It's up 2%...for now.

Trebuchet · 4th March 2020, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

It's up 2%...for now.

Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.

The Great Zaganza · 4th March 2020, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.

Trump will have you shot if he hears you say that.

The Atheist · 4th March 2020, 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.

Certainly a classic example of markets and sentiment. Now that Wall St can see it doesn't matter who wins the election, they're buoyant.

Another week of covid-19 news and it'll be all on again.

One thing is certain, anyone on the right side of the volatility will be utterly creaming it.

dudalb · 4th March 2020, 01:39 PM

The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus.

William Parcher · 4th March 2020, 02:49 PM

Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.

The Atheist · 4th March 2020, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus.

Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release.

Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway.

Originally Posted by William Parcher

Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.

Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world.

Give it time - Covid-19's not going away.

The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me.

dudalb · 4th March 2020, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by William Parcher

Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.

They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday.
No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect.

dudalb · 4th March 2020, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release.

Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway.

Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world.

Give it time - Covid-19's not going away.

The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me.

Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.

portlandatheist · 4th March 2020, 05:46 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday.
No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect.

or perhaps months

The Atheist · 4th March 2020, 05:56 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.

You missed the point, which is that UK has national health coverage, something USA will never have.

It doesn't matter what you wrap it up as or call it, you either have free and freely available healthcare for everyone or you don't.

Most countries do.

Meadmaker · 4th March 2020, 08:51 PM

Originally Posted by William Parcher

Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.

Ha! Suck it, bears!

At least until tomorrow.

a_unique_person · 4th March 2020, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.

To many negatives in that sentence for me to make sense of it.

rjh01 · 4th March 2020, 11:19 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

<snip>
Bingo!

That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!

What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both.

The Great Zaganza · 4th March 2020, 11:22 PM

Originally Posted by rjh01

What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both.

How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 01:32 AM

Futures down couple of hundred right now, doubtless on the back of emergencies being declared in multiple states of USA.

I'd say the markets will be down plenty tomorrow.

rjh01 · 5th March 2020, 01:40 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.

If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.

The Don · 5th March 2020, 01:44 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

How would it increase production?
Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.

....and it's been like that for some time now.

When cheap money is available, too many companies seem to buy back stock and/or acquire other companies at vastly over-inflated prices. There seems to be comparatively little appetite for investing for the medium to long term in organically growing the company.

Then again, the management of the company are beholden to the wishes of the shareholders. If a company is in private ownership they may be more inclined to take a longer view but the focus for a lot of publicly quoted companies is the next quarter and the executives are rewarded accordingly. Why bother to institute a long term investment programme which may pay off handsomely in a few years time (perhaps when you're long gone) when you could buy back some stock and give the shareholders a nice little bump in their shareholder value ?

The Great Zaganza · 5th March 2020, 02:16 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.

You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do.
Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand.
And supply seem to be maxed out.

The Don · 5th March 2020, 03:10 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do.
Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand.
And supply seem to be maxed out.

If we're talking about consumer (rather than corporate) demand then as I understand it, lowering rates can stimulate demand in two ways.

People who don't have money find it less expensive to borrow money and so are more inclined to borrow to spend. I'm not sure that a debt-fuelled buying splurge is necessarily the best thing for the US economy.

People who have cash money see it devaluing before their eyes and decide to spend and/or invest it. There are already suspicions that cheap money has caused an asset bubble, ploughing one's savings into overpriced stocks, property or other assets may not necessarily be a great idea. Then again, simply frittering away your life savings buying things you may not need doesn't seem that sensible either.

An economy which is largely powered by consumer spending is always going to be susceptible to the fickle hand on consumer sentiment. If people are worried about Coronavirus and/or the economy then they might be reluctant to go out and spend.

If were talking about corporate demand, I think you already covered it when you said that corporations are often using the cheap money to support their share price by buying back shares - which does little for the economy at large.

dann · 5th March 2020, 06:16 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.

You've never heard of finding new markets?!

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 12:45 PM

Can I just drop in a quick:

Dow fires up 1200 on Biden's big win, massive rate cuts, and money dump!

Reality bites less than 24 hours later and it's lost almost all of that, currently down 980.

Jesus H Christ.

Do NOT stand in front of a rampaging bear - it will run you over and kill you on the way past.

TVIX at $142 is almost an afterthought.

People who invested five grand on my advice now have their original $5000 back in the bank and $10,000+ worth of TVIX shares.

$200, here we come!

a_unique_person · 5th March 2020, 01:13 PM

Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?

dudalb · 5th March 2020, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?

He has been doing that for a long time.
ANd in this case, I think there is an element of hoping the virus causes the final collapse of the evil Capiitalist system, and the glorious worldwide people's revolution.

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 02:30 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?

No, because we've never had a situation previously where the disconnect between the real world and the markets was so stark.

It does nicely show that human brains can still beat algorithms from time to time, because it's absolutely clear none of the algorithms or traders picked it, so I'll gladly take all the credit for it.

Originally Posted by dudalb

He has been doing that for a long time.
ANd in this case, I think there is an element of hoping the virus causes the final collapse of the evil Capiitalist system, and the glorious worldwide people's revolution.

I can see why you never applied for Randi's mio, because your mind-reading skills are appalling.

Just ask yourself - given that the entire premise of this thread is making money off the decline in the markets, how would I be aiding an anti-capitalist agenda by promoting something that is 100% capitalist?

You don't even make sense and must be kidding yourself really badly if you think you do, because the premise is idiotic.

Not to mention, at no stage have I suggested the end of the world, or sharemarkets, is nigh. Just that there will be enormous economic fallout, and it's blindingly obvious every bank and economist in the world now agrees with me, or maybe you missed the rate cuts and billions tipped into the banking system over the past few days? The early $1 Tn estimate has been updated to $2.4 Tn, and I still think they're short.

Man, I'd love to see you doing a Rorschach Test.

Every single card:

"What do you see?"

"Commies!"

marting · 5th March 2020, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

No, because we've never had a situation previously where the disconnect between the real world and the markets was so stark.

I've been looking at various studies of the impact of pandemics on the market. There are a few that have come out recently. Harvard Business Review for example as well some older ones.

There's a stark difference between most that have come out recently ( a few days back) and those done during when there was no emerging pandemic. The former being much more positive predicting a short term, relatively minor effect.

Not surprising.

As for America, we have been slow, unlike China and the WHO, to produce usable tests. This appears to be due to the weird regulatory mechanisms that assumed tests would be produced by the private sector and regulatory jurisdictional issues between the CDC and FDA. States are still, for the most part, short of test kits, and the CDC has halted posting of the numbers of people tested. At the same time the White House has said that a million tests will be available by the end of the week. We'll see.

Meantime there is obviously significant community spread. CDC changed positions earlier this week so that doctors could actually order tests when they could get them. So we'll see significant uptick in positives shortly as test kits become available.

As this info comes out we'll see much more social distancing and concomitant economic effects. It will come into increasing conflict with the notion that coronavirus is just another flu type bug. Lots of blaming and finger pointing ahead.

Meadmaker · 5th March 2020, 05:26 PM

Got the memo at work today, in Michigan.

1. If you are the least bit sick, STAY HOME!
2. Our Seattle office is located in the same building as one of the confirmed cases in Washington state. (Not our company employee, but someone who works in the same building.)
3. One of our Michigan employees was in Seattle last week.
4. No more travel.

Fun times.

So far, the office in suburban Seattle is still open for business, but this has got to start dragging things down soon.

2nd March 2020, 03:06 PM	#161
William Parcher Show me the monkey! Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25,729	CNN: The Dow finished up 1,294 points, or 5.1%, making it its best one-day point gain on record. On a percentage basis, Monday was its best day since March 2009.
	__________________ Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.

2nd March 2020, 04:11 PM	#162
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Lot of jumping the gun, I feel, but give it a while.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

2nd March 2020, 07:37 PM	#164
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	I'd bet my life on dead cat. Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus. Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up. IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

3rd March 2020, 05:11 PM	#167
William Parcher Show me the monkey! Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25,729	Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days.
	__________________ Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.

3rd March 2020, 05:31 PM	#168
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Originally Posted by William Parcher Today the Dow was down almost 800 points. These are wild days. Nah, I thought it was the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and even staked my life on it: Originally Posted by The Atheist I'd bet my life on dead cat. It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

2nd March 2020, 04:14 PM	#163
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 24,816	Dead cat? Or correction of the correction?

2nd March 2020, 08:13 PM	#165
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 24,816	Originally Posted by The Atheist I'd bet my life on dead cat. Like I said, this is the Phony War part - the time when there aren't enough cases to be scary as the virus spreads. People see a whiff of hope and have dived back in on the back of more stimulus. Once the hospitals start overflowing and schools and workplaces shut it will all come home to roost and there won't be any more stimulus available. My feeling is the banks have panicked and acted far too early in a forlorn attempt to prop prices up. IMF sees half of global growth being shaved off by it, and I'd say they're optimistic. Well I did my part by selling 50 shares of Nvidia, about $14,000. It ended up with some large gains today, although my sale price was higher than the final closing price. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

3rd March 2020, 01:55 AM	#166
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,041	Originally Posted by Meadmaker Dead cat? Or correction of the correction? Excellent question. The market is driven my sentiment, so perhaps it was oversold in a week when emotions were running high. A weekend for reflection and positive comments and action from central banks may mean that the recent gains are the market taking a more sober view. Then again a number of pundits have been saying that the markets, and in particular the US market is a bubble fuelled by cheap money and deficit spending and that a major correction is well overdue. I'm utterly rubbish at picking the market which is why I've been investing a few hundred pounds a month for the last thirty-odd years in the hope that it'll all average out .

3rd March 2020, 05:59 PM	#169
Tippit Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Florida Posts: 3,066	Originally Posted by The Atheist It's turtles all the way now. I'm sure there will be days when a few fund managers think they're seeing cheap deals, but the trend will continue. TIVX is rocking. I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below?
	__________________ "There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance - that principle is contempt prior to investigation." - Herbert Spencer

3rd March 2020, 06:13 PM	#170
Tippit Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Florida Posts: 3,066	So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they?
	__________________ "There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance - that principle is contempt prior to investigation." - Herbert Spencer

3rd March 2020, 06:59 PM	#171
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Originally Posted by Tippit TIVX is rocking. I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits. If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37. Such is life. Originally Posted by Tippit I read an article that claimed that the S&P 500 on an enterprise value/revenue basis is 2x as overvalued as it was at the peak of the dot com bubble. This, a function of the unlimited free funny money that the Fed has enabled corporations to borrow and do buybacks. I'm not sure if this is still true after the recent selloff, but I'm sure it's close enough. Look out below? Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again. Originally Posted by Tippit So the Fed cut rates by 50% in an emergency meeting (9th time in history), and the DJIA still tanked by 786 points. I've never seen this kind of action in my life. Has the Fed lost control of the markets? The US equity market is roughly $30 trillion dollars. The Fed balance sheet is already ~$4 trillion. They certainly can't buy it all, can they? Bingo! That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

3rd March 2020, 10:02 PM	#172
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,050	Originally Posted by The Atheist I'll say. Solid $120 right now. My people are in big profits. If I'd had a hundred grand to throw in, I'd have put it all in TVIX when they were $37. Such is life. Yeah, I wouldn't advise standing in the way of the bears right now. I see a few people in the futures market trying to do that right now. They'll get crushed again. Bingo! That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon! Guess what happens to bank accounts when it's cheaper to hold cash than keep it in a bank? It ain't pretty.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,050	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

4th March 2020, 03:08 AM	#173
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 42,986	Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

4th March 2020, 09:15 AM	#174
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 24,816	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Dow Dives! Trump will have to call even louder for another interest rate cut now. It's up 2%...for now.

4th March 2020, 11:12 AM	#175
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 30,659	Originally Posted by Meadmaker It's up 2%...for now. Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce.
	__________________ Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.

4th March 2020, 11:15 AM	#176
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,399	Originally Posted by Trebuchet Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce. Trump will have you shot if he hears you say that.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

4th March 2020, 12:14 PM	#177
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Originally Posted by Trebuchet Almost 3% at the moment. It's a Biden Bounce. Certainly a classic example of markets and sentiment. Now that Wall St can see it doesn't matter who wins the election, they're buoyant. Another week of covid-19 news and it'll be all on again. One thing is certain, anyone on the right side of the volatility will be utterly creaming it.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

4th March 2020, 01:39 PM	#178
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 49,979	The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

4th March 2020, 02:49 PM	#179
William Parcher Show me the monkey! Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25,729	Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today.
	__________________ Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.

4th March 2020, 03:48 PM	#180
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Originally Posted by dudalb The panic has hit the movie industry. Sony is moving back "No Time To Die" the new James BOnd movie, from May to November because of the virus. Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release. Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway. Originally Posted by William Parcher Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today. Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world. Give it time - Covid-19's not going away. The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

4th March 2020, 03:51 PM	#181
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 49,979	Originally Posted by William Parcher Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today. They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday. No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

4th March 2020, 03:54 PM	#182
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 49,979	Originally Posted by The Atheist Probably sensible thinking if they want a screen release. Whether or not gatherings are stopped, it's not going to be long before people stop going to large gatherings anyway. Yep, it's completely schizophrenic at the moment. It's the Phony War all over - numbers aren't bad enough anywhere but Italy (of real, white people nations) to be scary, the Fed's cut rates, Biden's winning, and all is well with the world. Give it time - Covid-19's not going away. The irony of the market boost when a non-medicare-for-all guys rises to the top in the early stages of a pandemic isn't lost on me. Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

4th March 2020, 05:46 PM	#183
portlandatheist Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 3,581	Originally Posted by dudalb They are calling it the Biden bounce, since it was primarly caused by Biden's huge win On Supertuesday. No doubt another round of bad virus news will cause it to tank again in the next couple of days. The markets will be up and down like a yo yo for the next few weeks,I suspect. or perhaps months

4th March 2020, 05:56 PM	#184
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Originally Posted by dudalb Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so. You missed the point, which is that UK has national health coverage, something USA will never have. It doesn't matter what you wrap it up as or call it, you either have free and freely available healthcare for everyone or you don't. Most countries do.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

4th March 2020, 08:51 PM	#185
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 24,816	Originally Posted by William Parcher Dow up nearly 1,200 points at closing today. Ha! Suck it, bears! At least until tomorrow.

4th March 2020, 09:42 PM	#186
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 42,986	Originally Posted by dudalb Non Medicare for all does not mean no UHC. Bernie's plan was flawed; a lot of UHC advocates thought so. To many negatives in that sentence for me to make sense of it.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

4th March 2020, 11:19 PM	#187
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 26,413	Originally Posted by The Atheist <snip> Bingo! That's exactly what I meant when I said their cannons were empty. What are they going to try next? Negative interest rates coming to a central bank near you soon! What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both.
	__________________ This signature is for rent.

4th March 2020, 11:22 PM	#188
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,399	Originally Posted by rjh01 What they should be doing is producing money on a big scale. Then this would either produce inflation or increase production or a combination of both. How would it increase production? Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

5th March 2020, 01:32 AM	#189
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Futures down couple of hundred right now, doubtless on the back of emergencies being declared in multiple states of USA. I'd say the markets will be down plenty tomorrow.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

5th March 2020, 01:40 AM	#190
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 26,413	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza How would it increase production? Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock. If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both.
	__________________ This signature is for rent.

5th March 2020, 01:44 AM	#191
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,041	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza How would it increase production? Companies aren't investing, they are just buying back stock. ....and it's been like that for some time now. When cheap money is available, too many companies seem to buy back stock and/or acquire other companies at vastly over-inflated prices. There seems to be comparatively little appetite for investing for the medium to long term in organically growing the company. Then again, the management of the company are beholden to the wishes of the shareholders. If a company is in private ownership they may be more inclined to take a longer view but the focus for a lot of publicly quoted companies is the next quarter and the executives are rewarded accordingly. Why bother to institute a long term investment programme which may pay off handsomely in a few years time (perhaps when you're long gone) when you could buy back some stock and give the shareholders a nice little bump in their shareholder value ?

5th March 2020, 02:16 AM	#192
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,399	Originally Posted by rjh01 If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both. You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do. Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand. And supply seem to be maxed out.
	__________________ Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam.

5th March 2020, 03:10 AM	#193
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,041	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza You are aware that Inflation reduces effective income until companies start raising salaries, something they have been incredibly slow to do. Lowering rates is not a quick way to increase demand. And supply seem to be maxed out. If we're talking about consumer (rather than corporate) demand then as I understand it, lowering rates can stimulate demand in two ways. People who don't have money find it less expensive to borrow money and so are more inclined to borrow to spend. I'm not sure that a debt-fuelled buying splurge is necessarily the best thing for the US economy. People who have cash money see it devaluing before their eyes and decide to spend and/or invest it. There are already suspicions that cheap money has caused an asset bubble, ploughing one's savings into overpriced stocks, property or other assets may not necessarily be a great idea. Then again, simply frittering away your life savings buying things you may not need doesn't seem that sensible either. An economy which is largely powered by consumer spending is always going to be susceptible to the fickle hand on consumer sentiment. If people are worried about Coronavirus and/or the economy then they might be reluctant to go out and spend. If were talking about corporate demand, I think you already covered it when you said that corporations are often using the cheap money to support their share price by buying back shares - which does little for the economy at large.

5th March 2020, 06:16 AM	#194
dann Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 13,291	Originally Posted by rjh01 If people have more money then they will want to spend it. This will increase demand. So either production goes up or inflation goes up or both. You've never heard of finding new markets?!
	__________________ /dann "Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht "The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

5th March 2020, 12:45 PM	#195
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 27,940	Can I just drop in a quick: Dow fires up 1200 on Biden's big win, massive rate cuts, and money dump! Reality bites less than 24 hours later and it's lost almost all of that, currently down 980. Jesus H Christ. Do NOT stand in front of a rampaging bear - it will run you over and kill you on the way past. TVIX at $142 is almost an afterthought. People who invested five grand on my advice now have their original $5000 back in the bank and $10,000+ worth of TVIX shares. $200, here we come!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.