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Old 24th January 2021, 10:07 AM   #521
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am of the view on the evidence that if this is not just a flu we should now know exactly how it is not just a flu .
Mate, I don't know what you've been smoking, but diseases having similar or shared symptoms don't make them the same disease.

I also thought you'd be more concerned with the dozens of expert warnings over the past few weeks coming to bite Cinderella on the arse as a case has escaped quarantine and visited 28 locations across Northland.

At this stage, we're poised to become either Sydney or Melbourne, and I have a nasty suspicion it might be Melbourne. Northland is the absolute worst place this could have happened.
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Old 24th January 2021, 10:16 AM   #522
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How on earth did that happen? I thought you guys practically had armed guards at the hotel room doors.
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Old 24th January 2021, 11:55 AM   #523
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Mate, I don't know what you've been smoking, but diseases having similar or shared symptoms don't make them the same disease.

I also thought you'd be more concerned with the dozens of expert warnings over the past few weeks coming to bite Cinderella on the arse as a case has escaped quarantine and visited 28 locations across Northland.

At this stage, we're poised to become either Sydney or Melbourne, and I have a nasty suspicion it might be Melbourne. Northland is the absolute worst place this could have happened.
I was not discussing that, but the question of health status 12 months on. Rolfe's post is an answer on the positive side, but I am surprised there is not a vast output of data. I am concerned with long covid for the kids in their 20s on overseas adventures, like my 26 year old in Vancouver.

I think Ardern is a disgrace as a prime minister for all the reasons you do.

Last edited by Samson; 24th January 2021 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 24th January 2021, 12:31 PM   #524
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
How on earth did that happen? I thought you guys practically had armed guards at the hotel room doors.
Reality v publicity.

There's been at least one article daily in every major news outlet where the well-known experts on viral transmission have been berating the government over the impending certain failure of the quarantine system.

From cleaning, to guests mingling, to unsafe air-conditioning, it's been waiting to happen, and now it has.

The entire reason behind it is that our caring little no-brain PM wanted to help corporate hotel chains preserve their income by putting Covid quarantined people into unsuitable hotel rooms instead of using purpose-built - or at least suitable - accommodation.
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Old 24th January 2021, 01:17 PM   #525
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Forgive me if I take your condemnation with a pinch of salt, because whatever her faults she is several parsecs ahead of anything that's happening in Europe, and the corruption and cronyism in the Westminster government that has seen many millions of pounds handed out to pals of the PM with start-up companies or small companies doing other things to provide PPE or contact tracing (which has subsequently either not materialised or been woefully substandard) really puts anything in NZ in the shade.
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Old 24th January 2021, 01:33 PM   #526
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Forgive me...
No need - you're just posting from ignorance of what's actually happening here.
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Old 24th January 2021, 01:51 PM   #527
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Even now the luck may continue with the husband and hairdresser testing negative, so my guess is the 30 businesses are safe, but this should never have happened.
In Australia there is no movement from the hotel rooms for smoking, exercising and so on as I understand it, that is the simplest science.

I add below for context to show her two trick ponyism, Covid and Christchurch, have fooled the world, not as a derail.

(The Ardern headlines internationally miss that she has cleverly captured the right with soaring house prices she refuses to fix with a simple land tax for redistribution. Her reaction to the cannabis near deadheat was also for the right by ruling out decriminalisation despite her being a past inhaler.)
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Old 24th January 2021, 02:00 PM   #528
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Even now the luck may continue with the husband and hairdresser testing negative, so my guess is the 30 businesses are safe, but this should never have happened.
In Australia there is no movement from the hotel rooms for smoking, exercising and so on as I understand it, that is the simplest science.

I add below for context to show her two trick ponyism, Covid and Christchurch, have fooled the world, not as a derail.

(The Ardern headlines internationally miss that she has cleverly captured the right with soaring house prices she refuses to fix with a simple land tax for redistribution. Her reaction to the cannabis near deadheat was also for the right by ruling out decriminalisation despite her being a past inhaler.)
I was going to suggest to people ignorant of what's actually happening in NZ that they should talk to you, but I couldn't be arsed.

You've gone ahead and nailed it 100%. I'm even going to link your post to the Cinderella Appreciation thread. I'm just about to cut my wrists that I helped get that empty vessel elected in 2017.
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Old 24th January 2021, 02:00 PM   #529
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
No need - you're just posting from ignorance of what's actually happening here.

One thing that I know is happening there is long sustained periods of no community transmission with genuine political will to keep it that way. That puts you so far ahead of us you're out of sight.

We also have a female leader who is getting international plaudits for putting on a good acting performance convincing people that she's handling the virus well, while being utterly corrupt and untrustworthy behind the scenes. But the difference is, we're over-run by virus, you aren't.

Having read up a bit on what has happened, it would appear to be a case of transmission of the virus within the quarantine facility leading to someone going down with the infection after she had completed her set period in quarantine. This is basic stuff and for sure should not be happening, but at least you have quarantine facilities in the first place!
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Last edited by Rolfe; 24th January 2021 at 02:12 PM.
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Old 24th January 2021, 02:15 PM   #530
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
One thing that I know is happening there is long sustained periods of no community transmission with genuine political will to keep it that way. That puts you so far ahead of us you're out of sight.

We also have a female leader who is getting international plaudits for putting on a good acting performance convincing people that she's handling the virus well, while being utterly corrupt and untrustworthy behind the scenes. But the difference is, we're over-run by virus, you aren't.
I totally understand your point, and indeed there is a danger that we call the glass half empty, but there is vast misery in New Zealand that could be fixed in a heartbeat with the election result. People say it is the same everywhere, but that is little better than the covid eradication defeatism you are adept at analysing.
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Old 24th January 2021, 02:25 PM   #531
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I was going to suggest to people ignorant of what's actually happening in NZ that they should talk to you, but I couldn't be arsed.

You've gone ahead and nailed it 100%. I'm even going to link your post to the Cinderella Appreciation thread. I'm just about to cut my wrists that I helped get that empty vessel elected in 2017.
I appreciate that Atheist, I am just an individual puzzling away on my own, no allegiances, not rich not poor.
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Old 24th January 2021, 02:54 PM   #532
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One other thing I've been meaning to mention for a while and finally remembered.

NZ is doing so brilliantly at Covid, that with all of the hundreds of people sitting around and waiting for today to happen, we still have no sewage testing for Covid.

A simple, accurate and essential measurement, being avoided solely because everyone involved has been too busy patting themselves on the back.
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Old 24th January 2021, 03:35 PM   #533
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* Surgeon General said the 'vaccine' does not prevent transmission to others.

* Survival rate ranges from 99.997% to 99.5% up to age 69.

Nonetheless, CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System has 3872 adverse reports as of December.


What is the adverse event rate per injection? That is not apparent in this brief presentation


https://www.bitchute.com/video/hrsTMYhOdVZC/
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Old 24th January 2021, 04:21 PM   #534
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Further evidence on the complete lack of action and preparedness by our Health Ministry: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...ck-of-guidance
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Old 24th January 2021, 04:30 PM   #535
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Further evidence on the complete lack of action and preparedness by our Health Ministry: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...ck-of-guidance
Doesn't this belong in the non-USA politics thread?
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Old 24th January 2021, 05:43 PM   #536
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Doesn't this belong in the non-USA politics thread?
No, it's entirely about Covid, but feel free to check.

NZ keeps being held up as the shining light for Covid response, when the facts are that we've been unbelievably lucky.
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Old 24th January 2021, 06:05 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Further evidence on the complete lack of action and preparedness by our Health Ministry: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...ck-of-guidance
NZ's got a ways to go to achieve the level of incompetence the USA has shown.
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Old 24th January 2021, 06:11 PM   #538
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I think NZ and Australia have both been handling the pandemic extremely well. I am entirely back to normal life now. The only difference is that I check in to the food court when I have lunch and I don't hold the handrail on the escalator. Given what we're seeing in the US, the UK, and other countries, we're doing well. Our relative isolation helps, but leadership from government and the overall non-hostility from the public to doing what's right contribute too.
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Old 24th January 2021, 06:27 PM   #539
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
NZ's got a ways to go to achieve the level of incompetence the USA has shown.
No doubt about that, but it's relativity for me.

When you've spent ~$40 billion eliminating the disease, it takes some genuine stupidity to let it back in.
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Old 24th January 2021, 06:32 PM   #540
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An advantage of having only one case to work on right now is that now the positive test has been confirmed, the science side of it is working well.

The woman has the more-infectious South African strain, and it seems almost certain she caught it off the person in the room next to her at the hotel, as that person tested positive for the identical strain before the current case became symptomatic.

The woman's husband, despite sharing a car, room and bed with her, has tested negative.

The Director of Health has just been noting that her symptoms were aches and pains, with no respiratory symptoms, so they think she's been shedding very few viral particles.

We may get lucky yet again.
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Old 24th January 2021, 10:13 PM   #541
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) just published a very detailed report on Covid-19 in the USA on Jan 22, 2021.

It includes projections and historicals with state details. Lots of great stuff. One thing I found odd is that they project that 17% of the USA has had Covid-19. This seems lower than extrapolating CDC median range and would more closely correspond to the extrapolated lower end of the CDC's estimate. If the 17% is accurate, the IFR would come in around .6%.

However, they include a graph of estimated percent of infections detected (ie cases) which has increased over time. In April it was around 5% now a bit over 40%.

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/defa...S_20210122.pdf
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Old 24th January 2021, 10:19 PM   #542
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Idle question: Why does the Pfizer vaccine need to be held at such extreme cold, especially when the similar Moderna vaccine can be held at ordinary freezer temperatures? We all understand what freezing does, but why does the one need to be stored at something like 90 degrees lower temp than the other?
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Old 24th January 2021, 10:20 PM   #543
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
An advantage of having only one case to work on right now is that now the positive test has been confirmed, the science side of it is working well.

The woman has the more-infectious South African strain, and it seems almost certain she caught it off the person in the room next to her at the hotel, as that person tested positive for the identical strain before the current case became symptomatic.

The woman's husband, despite sharing a car, room and bed with her, has tested negative.

The Director of Health has just been noting that her symptoms were aches and pains, with no respiratory symptoms, so they think she's been shedding very few viral particles.

We may get lucky yet again.
Direct route confirmed, no intermediary.
Stories now rife with queuing for testing, busing groups to exercise and everything making the escape a certainty.

Change 2 variables, if she was
1. A super spreader
2. And did not use the q codes 30 times

We would be in Victorian mode.
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Old 24th January 2021, 10:56 PM   #544
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Idle question: Why does the Pfizer vaccine need to be held at such extreme cold, especially when the similar Moderna vaccine can be held at ordinary freezer temperatures? We all understand what freezing does, but why does the one need to be stored at something like 90 degrees lower temp than the other?
mRNA is very unstable and lower temperatures are the obvious way to stabilize it, however Moderna has more experience with mRNA and has a stabilization process that eliminates the need for the extra cold freeze.
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Old 25th January 2021, 01:08 AM   #545
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Direct route confirmed, no intermediary.
Stories now rife with queuing for testing, busing groups to exercise and everything making the escape a certainty.

Change 2 variables, if she was
1. A super spreader
2. And did not use the q codes 30 times

We would be in Victorian mode.
Is this a reference to late nineteenth century, a state in Australia, a city in Canada, or perhaps a picaresque reference to an African cascade?
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Old 25th January 2021, 01:17 AM   #546
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
mRNA is very unstable and lower temperatures are the obvious way to stabilize it, however Moderna has more experience with mRNA and has a stabilization process that eliminates the need for the extra cold freeze.
The stabilisation for both mRNA vaccines is by suspending the RNA in lipid nanoparticles. As said Moderna has a little more experience, and its LNP may be better. It may be that stability studies will show less difference than current recommendations suggest, Pfizer may not have had time to do stability studies so went with very conservative standards. It may also be an issue with patents, Moderna may have a patent on their particular LNP, and if pfizer had access to the technology it might improve the stability of the pfizer vaccine. This is one area where governments might enforce sharing of IP.
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Old 25th January 2021, 01:25 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Reality v publicity.

There's been at least one article daily in every major news outlet where the well-known experts on viral transmission have been berating the government over the impending certain failure of the quarantine system.

From cleaning, to guests mingling, to unsafe air-conditioning, it's been waiting to happen, and now it has.

The entire reason behind it is that our caring little no-brain PM wanted to help corporate hotel chains preserve their income by putting Covid quarantined people into unsuitable hotel rooms instead of using purpose-built - or at least suitable - accommodation.
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Is this a reference to late nineteenth century, a state in Australia, a city in Canada, or perhaps a picaresque reference to an African cascade?
A singing group essays this.
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Old 25th January 2021, 01:45 AM   #548
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
a state in Australia
That one.
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Old 25th January 2021, 03:40 AM   #549
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That one.
In a crisis it is important to be pedantic but I will think more about Planigale's options later.

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Old 25th January 2021, 09:06 AM   #550
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(Don't recall either of these stories being mentioned here)

A little good news out of the great white north...

From: CBC (Canuck Broadcasting Corporation)
Nearly a year after launching a clinical study into a potential COVID-19 treatment, researchers with the Montreal Heart Institute suggest a widely available anti-inflammatory drug is effective in helping people stay away from hospitals and survive the disease....researchers found that colchicine reduced the chance of death or hospitalization by 21 per cent when compared to a placebo.

(The drug is commonly available in pharmacies.)

Certainly not a game changer, but hey... one more tool for use in dealing with Covid19 isn't a bad thing.

And from: CBC
Ottawa-based Spartan Bioscience has received Health Canada approval for its made-in-Canada rapid COVID-19 test...The test offers hope because it is one of only a handful of approved quick-result tests that uses the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing method — widely considered the gold standard for accurate COVID-19 diagnostics...

(The company had a version of their tester last year, but ended up withdrawing it when it was found to be unreliable... hopefully they do have the bugs worked out.)

Not really sure if it has any advantages over any other rapid test kit. Well, except if anyone ever asks what type of test was done they can yell "THIS WAS SPARTAN!"

I had thought that rapid testing would play a bigger role in dealing with Covid.
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Old 25th January 2021, 02:05 PM   #551
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The current NZ case is highlighting again how little we know about transmission of the disease, because the woman has the more-contagious South African variant, yet all 14 of her close contacts tested so far have come back negative. Given people hugging and kissing her haven't caught it, I think it's very unlikely any casual contacts will have caught it, which is another stroke of amazing luck for us. The question of ambient temperature may be relative as well, because it's been over 25C daily.

It was already suspected that only around 20% of cases pass the disease on, so with a 70% increase in transmission in the new variants, that may have risen as far as 35% of cases, but it still depends on whether cases are more contagious, or more contagious cases exist.

Since she caught it from someone with whom she'd never even been in the same room, it seems to me that some people are very highly contagious while others aren't contagious at all.

Pity we don't know which is which!
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Old 25th January 2021, 03:40 PM   #552
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Since she caught it from someone with whom she'd never even been in the same room, it seems to me that some people are very highly contagious while others aren't contagious at all.
Yup. This is a big problem. Most people don't seem to spread it at all but some spread it like crazy.

Would be nice if we had some way to identify when/if people were shedding large amounts of viable virions and not just inactive fragments. But with the buggers being around .3 um with no way to tell if the sub-microscopic particles are viable it seems intractable. But is it really?

It's incredibly difficult to study, let alone validate an approach and I haven't seen much progress.
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Old 25th January 2021, 04:39 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
It's incredibly difficult to study, let alone validate an approach and I haven't seen much progress.
The only hope of analysis is from countries with virtually no cases.

Every case in NZ is bagged and tagged immediately - the genome sequence being top of the list.

The case we have isn't contagious, that much seems clear. The doctors seem to think it's because she's not coughing. She has fever and body aches, but no respiratory trouble. Yet. As I noted earlier, the health department thinks this is the difference, and it's the only thing that makes any sense. That gets complicated by people who have been shown to be symptomatic prior to having symptoms.

And the person who gave it to her appears to be a perfect case of both aerosol spread and pre-symptomatic transmission, because the only chance the virus would have had to pass would be the infected woman going into the corridor for exercise prior to symptoms starting, then the new case having inhaled that air (through/around a medical mask) later.
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Old 25th January 2021, 06:07 PM   #554
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Isreal finally on decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

And for the first time, there is a chance, it will be the last peak. Worth watching !
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Old 25th January 2021, 08:36 PM   #555
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>
Since she caught it from someone with whom she'd never even been in the same room, it seems to me that some people are very highly contagious while others aren't contagious at all.

Pity we don't know which is which!
There should be a test to find out. Like they take off the mask they have been wearing and it is tested for the virus. If it is loaded then they are a potential super spreader. If it is hard to detect the virus they are safe. The danger here is that a person was safe on the day of the test, but not a few days before or after.

The above is my uninformed speculation. Nothing more. But this is a topic that needs research. One person gets released from quarantine and then tests positive. Should everyone panic, close the borders, order a national lockdown, (because the danger is huge), or just isolate the closest contacts (because the danger is small). The cost of getting it wrong, either way, is huge. It happened once in NZ, I am sure it will happen many times, with variations, especially if the vaccines do not stop the spread.
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Old 25th January 2021, 08:47 PM   #556
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Isreal finally on decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

And for the first time, there is a chance, it will be the last peak. Worth watching !
Be careful. I suspect what you are seeing is just noise. Have a look at this website, which is where they get the figures from. There are charts for death and another for severe cases. When they start going down I will believe that vaccines prevent these cases. When the % of positive cases goes down then that is some evidence that vaccines prevent the spread of the virus. But it will be sometime before that happens. They need to give most people two doses of the vaccine first.


https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
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Old 25th January 2021, 09:07 PM   #557
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Be careful. I suspect what you are seeing is just noise. Have a look at this website, which is where they get the figures from. There are charts for death and another for severe cases. When they start going down I will believe that vaccines prevent these cases. When the % of positive cases goes down then that is some evidence that vaccines prevent the spread of the virus. But it will be sometime before that happens. They need to give most people two doses of the vaccine first.


https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
Well of course deaths are not going down, they usually lag behind infections for about 2 weeks. I'm not saying it's over, I'm saying the infections peaked. And that's quite clear and beyond noise.
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Old 25th January 2021, 11:09 PM   #558
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
When the % of positive cases goes down then that is some evidence that vaccines prevent the spread of the virus.
Right now it's evidence that their stringent lockdown is working.

We won't be able to point to vaccines for a couple of months at least.

Israel is up to 40% of first dose now, with UAE not far behind at 30%.
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Old 26th January 2021, 12:22 AM   #559
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Well of course deaths are not going down, they usually lag behind infections for about 2 weeks. I'm not saying it's over, I'm saying the infections peaked. And that's quite clear and beyond noise.
Just had another look at the data. Yes, you are right. Looking at the 7 day moving average of new cases.
- There were 6874 cases today (25 January)
- At the peak there were 8395 cases on 14 January
- Today's numbers are about the same as 7,8 January
- On 11 November they had 571 cases. After that the numbers started increasing.

So yes, they are going down. In 11 days their numbers have down to 81% from the peak. If they had a lockdown as successful as Victoria (a state in Australia) then their numbers would go down by 50% or so a week. Even if they are as successful as Victoria was, without a successful vaccine, they will need to be in lockdown for months for them to eliminate the virus. If they end the lockdown too early then the numbers will start doubling every fortnight.

I predict that they will still be in lockdown at the end of February because they will still have 200+ cases per day (7 day moving average). The numbers could be much higher. The only reason they could be lower is if the vaccine has started to reduce new infections. Then this would be some evidence that the vaccine works.
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Old 26th January 2021, 05:41 AM   #560
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Right now it's evidence that their stringent lockdown is working.

We won't be able to point to vaccines for a couple of months at least.

Israel is up to 40% of first dose now, with UAE not far behind at 30%.
Why couple months ? Lockdown show clearly on graph in 2 weeks. Vaccines in specific groups should do the same, especially compared to non-vaccinated groups. And guess what .. they do.

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/doc..._4t3oNV6ckMMIU
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