Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[Wildy]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Probably just trying to boost his YouTube views. The guy was linked to by CE once and is a moron.

Huh, I must have forgotten about that.

I don't know if this is some kind of ploy to boost his Youtube views. I know they dropped after his ridiculous "discussion" with Lazerpig (link to an hour long meme filled supercut) but I don't think he is that desperate to deal with the Ukrainian authorities again considering he was detained for a bit by the SBU last year.

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by Wildy

A pro-Putin guy by the name of Gonzalo Lira has been arrested in Ukraine.

Some are calling this a blow to press freedom. But I don't really know what to think on that line in part because I'm aware of his other antics that make me biased against him to begin with.

If there ever was a good reason to restrict people's freedom of speech it's when they support an enemy whose waging war against you and denying the atrocities they have committed.

Edit: by the way, that "Helsinki Times" article reeks of Russian apologetics.

[jimbob]

Interesting thread on Prigozhin

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/st...205757447?s=20

Saying that he's basically a figurehead and in a bad position.

Not sure I agree with the idea that Wagner PMC is directly under Kremlin control but a good perspective

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Wildy

A pro-Putin guy by the name of Gonzalo Lira has been arrested in Ukraine.

Some are calling this a blow to press freedom. But I don't really know what to think on that line in part because I'm aware of his other antics that make me biased against him to begin with.

The Helsinki Times has recently being putting out a lot of paid advertorial for the CCP and "justifying" it as a counterbalance to "Western bias". I wouldn't be shocked if this latest pro-Putain stuff is them being also bough with Russian money.

Edit: For this to be freedom of the press, the first thing to happen would be Lira actually becoming a journalist.

[The Don]

Seems like Prigozhin and the Russian regime have kissed and made up, the Wagner Group will be getting the supplies they have requested and tens of thousands more will be killed trying to take a ruined town with little strategic value.

[Wildy]

But they have to have captured it by May 9th, it's a very important deadline.

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by The Don

Seems like Prigozhin and the Russian regime have kissed and made up, the Wagner Group will be getting the supplies they have requested and tens of thousands more will be killed trying to take a ruined town with little strategic value.

I read an analysis today that suggests Wagner dude and Putin are still best friends, this outburst was meant to create plausibility (on a sliding scale, of course) to blame failures on the Russian military generals and ministers below Putin. So he can scapegoat them and replace as needed while avoiding responsibility himself. The top will blame the middle to keep the bottom from rising against the top.

[jeremyp]

Oh no. Who could have predicted this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65516633

Quote:

on Sunday Prigozhin said Moscow had agreed to provide the supplies "needed to continue fighting" in the city.

Also

Quote:

Prigozhin's apparent U-turn is not a huge surprise. He is a publicity seeker who has not followed through on previous threats.

No, really?

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

I read an analysis today that suggests Wagner dude and Putin are still best friends, this outburst was meant to create plausibility (on a sliding scale, of course) to blame failures on the Russian military generals and ministers below Putin. So he can scapegoat them and replace as needed while avoiding responsibility himself. The top will blame the middle to keep the bottom from rising against the top.

We have been saying Putin needs an out to end this without going nuclear.

Now I see two outs.

1. he declares that he has destroyed all the nazis and leaves. All pro Russians citizens have been removed from the contested regions.

2. he says the whole war was based on lies his subordinates told him, and he purges the entire cabinet, and high ranking cabinet officials. (That way no one can testify against him)

[erwinl]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

We have been saying Putin needs an out to end this without going nuclear.

Now I see two outs.

1. he declares that he has destroyed all the nazis and leaves. All pro Russians citizens have been removed from the contested regions.

2. he says the whole war was based on lies his subordinates told him, and he purges the entire cabinet, and high ranking cabinet officials. (That way no one can testify against him)

Both of these 'outs' run against the problem of that the Russian people, might not agree with how the war is conducted, but the whole issue of the war itself, or more precise, beating up Ukraine, is not that unpopular with the Russian people as a whole.

Not like I understand and see things. At least for now (things may always change).

[theprestige]

My understanding is that the Moscow regimes have, for generations, cultivated apathy as a social value. This is one of the effects of the Moscow propaganda style, which is a constant stream of contradictory nonsense. After a while, you just give up, keep your head down, and let the government do its thing - whatever the **** the government's thing actually is, because who knows anymore. And who cares?

So I think, if this is the case, that the Russian public will probably not make too much of a fuss if Putin suddenly changes his victory condition and pulls out of Ukraine on that basis.

[erwinl]

Originally Posted by theprestige

My understanding is that the Moscow regimes have, for generations, cultivated apathy as a social value. This is one of the effects of the Moscow propaganda style, which is a constant stream of contradictory nonsense. After a while, you just give up, keep your head down, and let the government do its thing - whatever the **** the government's thing actually is, because who knows anymore. And who cares?

So I think, if this is the case, that the Russian public will probably not make too much of a fuss if Putin suddenly changes his victory condition and pulls out of Ukraine on that basis.

That’s also a possibility.
Although that would really need some apathy, for people to simply forget the tens of thousands killed and maimed sons, husbands and such.
Are they really that far gone? Maybe. Maybe not.

[Pixel42]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...84871018815489

Quote:

BREAKING: The Red Cross confirms that Russia destroyed its Odesa warehouse in a missile strike

The 1,000 square meter site contained humanitarian aid and will lead to a disruption of projects

No Red Cross personnel were present in the warehouse but Russia's offensive against food and humanitarian supplies in Ukraine continues

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...84871018815489

Oh no!

Anyway...

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

We have been saying Putin needs an out to end this without going nuclear.

Now I see two outs.

1. he declares that he has destroyed all the nazis and leaves. All pro Russians citizens have been removed from the contested regions.

2. he says the whole war was based on lies his subordinates told him, and he purges the entire cabinet, and high ranking cabinet officials. (That way no one can testify against him)

Problem for Putain is that he has too many underlings with too much power who might decide, instead of jockeying against each other, to defenestrate him.

[The Don]

There were several points of interest in ISW's daily summary yesterday:

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ent-may-8-2023

• Transnistria in Moldova are asking Russia for more "peacekeepers". I don't know if this signals the opening of another front to attempt to attack Ukraine from the West but I'd be surprised if Russia has a lot of trained personnel to be able to offer in this role
• Russia, or more accurately Wagner Group, continue to grind on in Bakhmut. It looks like Prigozhin got what he wanted
• Russia continue to commit war crimes by forcibly moving civilians from the occupied parts of Ukraine

[ohms]

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Oh no. Who could have predicted this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65516633

Quote:

on Sunday Prigozhin said Moscow had agreed to provide the supplies "needed to continue fighting" in the city.

Also

Quote:

Prigozhin's apparent U-turn is not a huge surprise. He is a publicity seeker who has not followed through on previous threats.

No, really?

Prigozhin has released another video claiming Wagner haven't yet received the promised ammunition. He also received a combat order that any withdrawal from Bakhmut would be seen as treason but Wagner will leave if they don't get what they asked for. It could be disinformation but, if not, things in the east could get interesting.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...55435323256834

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by The Don

There were several points of interest in ISW's daily summary yesterday:

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ent-may-8-2023

• Transnistria in Moldova are asking Russia for more "peacekeepers". I don't know if this signals the opening of another front to attempt to attack Ukraine from the West but I'd be surprised if Russia has a lot of trained personnel to be able to offer in this role
• Russia, or more accurately Wagner Group, continue to grind on in Bakhmut. It looks like Prigozhin got what he wanted
• Russia continue to commit war crimes by forcibly moving civilians from the occupied parts of Ukraine

On your second point either that or Priggy got told that Kadyrov's stopper batallions behind Wagner got their wishlist fulfilled.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by ohms

Prigozhin has released another video claiming Wagner haven't yet received the promised ammunition. He also received a combat order that any withdrawal from Bakhmut would be seen as treason but Wagner will leave if they don't get what they asked for. It could be disinformation but, if not, things in the east could get interesting.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...55435323256834

I see he is in a windowless room.

[dudalb]

Putin said in his "Victory Day" speech that the future of Russia depends on the war with Ukraine.
If true, Russia is so screwed.....

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by ohms

Prigozhin has released another video claiming Wagner haven't yet received the promised ammunition. He also received a combat order that any withdrawal from Bakhmut would be seen as treason but Wagner will leave if they don't get what they asked for. It could be disinformation but, if not, things in the east could get interesting.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...55435323256834

maybe the FSB has set up machine guns to "encourage" the Wagner Group members, a ls the first ten minutes of "Enemy At The Gates?'.
COme to think of it, more and more I think that Bashut has become Stalingrad 2.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Russia is so screwed.....

Under Putin, I'd have to agree.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by ohms

Prigozhin has released another video claiming Wagner haven't yet received the promised ammunition. He also received a combat order that any withdrawal from Bakhmut would be seen as treason but Wagner will leave if they don't get what they asked for. It could be disinformation but, if not, things in the east could get interesting.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...55435323256834

Is he deranged, stupid, or a gambler? He must be annoying people he really shouldn't want to.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Is he deranged, stupid, or a gambler? He must be annoying people he really shouldn't want to.

I still think Prigozen is going the way of Ernst Rohm.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Putin said in his "Victory Day" speech that the future of Russia depends on the war with Ukraine.
...

Well, true enough. Russia's future would have been just years more of Putin's kleptocracy if he hadn't invaded Ukraine. As the invasion blows up in his face the consequence may indeed be a dramatic change of Russia's future direction.

The interesting question is whether that post-Putin direction will be something better or worse.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Well, true enough. Russia's future would have been just years more of Putin's kleptocracy if he hadn't invaded Ukraine. As the invasion blows up in his face the consequence may indeed be a dramatic change of Russia's future direction.

The interesting question is whether that post-Putin direction will be something better or worse.

Siberian Sepertarism apparetnly is rapidly on the rise.....

[Oystein]

The world is making fun of Moskow's May 9 Red Square parade featuring 1 (one) tank, a little T-34.

My favorite take so far comes from @DefenceU:
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1656009079830061075

(I particularly appreciate the - possibly unintended - context that the accompanying music, Eric Carmen's "All by myself" is based on a theme by Sergei Rachmaninoff, a Russian composer who fled the Communist revolution of 1918 to settle in the USA)

---

In other news, the USA confirmed that Ukraine indeed managed to shoot down a "Kh-47M2 Kinzhal" hypersonic cruise missile with a Patriot system. Which I think is one of the best and brightest news items in all the reporting on military tech: There is one bit of hardware that the Russians are proud of, claim to have a lead on US/NATO and can actually field in this SMO (contrast e.g. the Armata tank) and which they showed off as something invincible - and now they learned, and we did, it isn't invincible after all. I wonder how many generals and other higher ups in Russia now gave up the last bit of hope.

[theprestige]

I remember people a few years ago all excited about the idea that Moscow had a new wunderwaffen that would put USN carrier groups in their place. Hypersonic missiles will kill carriers before Aegis can respond. Six Bears launching four Kinzhals each will overwhelm the group's air defenses from over the horizon. Etc.

Now we know that in addition to Moscow probably not being able to sortie six Bears at once, the Kinzhal can't even ambush a Patriot system - Patriot being only America's second-best defense system for this kind of thing.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Oystein

The world is making fun of Moskow's May 9 Red Square parade featuring 1 (one) tank, a little T-34.

My favorite take so far comes from @DefenceU:
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1656009079830061075

(I particularly appreciate the - possibly unintended - context that the accompanying music, Eric Carmen's "All by myself" is based on a theme by Sergei Rachmaninoff, a Russian composer who fled the Communist revolution of 1918 to settle in the USA)

---

In other news, the USA confirmed that Ukraine indeed managed to shoot down a "Kh-47M2 Kinzhal" hypersonic cruise missile with a Patriot system. Which I think is one of the best and brightest news items in all the reporting on military tech: There is one bit of hardware that the Russians are proud of, claim to have a lead on US/NATO and can actually field in this SMO (contrast e.g. the Armata tank) and which they showed off as something invincible - and now they learned, and we did, it isn't invincible after all. I wonder how many generals and other higher ups in Russia now gave up the last bit of hope.

It's a very nice little tank, though. And the dude in the turret looks so proud!

[TragicMonkey]

And now Russia's big mad at Poland because Poland's not going to call Kaliningrad that any more.

Which just draws attention to the place and reminds everyone that hey, not only does Russia not deserve to seize other territories but maybe it shouldn't be keeping the ones it had before the Ukraine business...

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by Oystein

In other news, the USA confirmed that Ukraine indeed managed to shoot down a "Kh-47M2 Kinzhal" hypersonic cruise missile with a Patriot system. Which I think is one of the best and brightest news items in all the reporting on military tech: There is one bit of hardware that the Russians are proud of, claim to have a lead on US/NATO and can actually field in this SMO (contrast e.g. the Armata tank) and which they showed off as something invincible - and now they learned, and we did, it isn't invincible after all. I wonder how many generals and other higher ups in Russia now gave up the last bit of hope.

And the Patriot is one of those systems were it's only going to get better at shooting stuff down. And the US has just figured out a way to put Patriots in the VLS System on ships.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

And the Patriot is one of those systems were it's only going to get better at shooting stuff down. And the US has just figured out a way to put Patriots in the VLS System on ships.

The knowledge that we have a working system to shoot down hypersonic missiles via an actual real world test against an actual potential real world adversary to the US DoD is extremely valuable. Like, hard to even put a price on it, but its gotta be well into the billions. We don't have to worry if we have a counter to Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles, we know we do. And maybe even better, they know it too.

[JoeMorgue]

And it puts Russia in a horrible position. They have to weigh the risk of one of their new fancy schmancy pieces of tech get embarrassed against the efficiency of actually using them.

Do you fight with 30 year old tech that can take the PR (for lack of a better term) hit of being defeated or do you risk sending in your Super Duper Stealth Attack Fighter and risk seeing it on CNN burning in a field with a Ukrainian farmer standing on it doing the DX Crotch Chop.

And this goes doubly for Russia, a country for who bluffing with their image of power is literally all they have left.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

And the Patriot is one of those systems were it's only going to get better at shooting stuff down. And the US has just figured out a way to put Patriots in the VLS System on ships.

My understanding is that the Standard Missile family + Aegis already outperforms the Patriot system anyway.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by theprestige

My understanding is that the Standard Missile family + Aegis already outperforms the Patriot system anyway.

It is, but this kind of interoperability is still a net positive and gives a lot of flexibility in things like logistics and supply line chokepoints.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Do you fight with 30 year old tech that can take the PR (for lack of a better term) hit of being defeated

Apparently the earliest version of the Patriot system had a software bug that caused it to sometimes fail to acquire its target. A bunch of soldiers in Iraq got killed by a Scut that should have been shot down. So the Patriot system got a bad reputation. But the US didn't cancel the program. The bug was found and fixed, and the system continued to receive upgrades and improvements. The current iteration of Patriot is leagues ahead of that original buggy system.

And I think that's probably how real military-industrial complexes roll. Yeah, they have their share of boondoggles and canceled failures. But they also have no problem putting a system out there, taking the PR hit when its deficiencies are revealed in the worst possible way, and then just. Making. It. Better.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

And now Russia's big mad at Poland because Poland's not going to call Kaliningrad that any more.

Which just draws attention to the place and reminds everyone that hey, not only does Russia not deserve to seize other territories but maybe it shouldn't be keeping the ones it had before the Ukraine business...

Maybe the Germans can start using "Konigsburg" again....
I think Poland was expecting to get Koningsburg along with the rest of East Prussia m and have always resented Russia taking it.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

The knowledge that we have a working system to shoot down hypersonic missiles via an actual real world test against an actual potential real world adversary to the US DoD is extremely valuable. Like, hard to even put a price on it, but its gotta be well into the billions. We don't have to worry if we have a counter to Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles, we know we do. And maybe even better, they know it too.

Yet another Russian Superweapon proves to be not so super. What a surprise.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

And it puts Russia in a horrible position. They have to weigh the risk of one of their new fancy schmancy pieces of tech get embarrassed against the efficiency of actually using them.

Do you fight with 30 year old tech that can take the PR (for lack of a better term) hit of being defeated or do you risk sending in your Super Duper Stealth Attack Fighter and risk seeing it on CNN burning in a field with a Ukrainian farmer standing on it doing the DX Crotch Chop.

And this goes doubly for Russia, a country for who bluffing with their image of power is literally all they have left.

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-...-35-heres-why/

Quote:

The Su-57 Felon is marketed as stealth fighter but It has the same RCS of a clean F/A-18 Super Hornet (and 1,000 times bigger than that of the F-35). Here’s why.

You can see the IR globe on the front of some SU57 photos, which cannot be a good pimple for stealth

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I still think Prigozen is going the way of Ernst Rohm.

Over on Scrutable, one poster, EACLucifer, pointed out the other option that he might be desperate and that as a last roll of the dice to try to get too popular for Shoigu to attack.