Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[jimbob]

Looks like Storm Shadow is in Ukraine.

Which is good

[steenkh]

It looks like there will be no Ukrainian offensive for the time being. Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive

[Wildy]

That's either legit or deliberate misinformation.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Wildy

That's either legit or deliberate misinformation.

My immediate reaction was that it was a bluff and a major assault begins tonight. My second thought is that's what he want the Russians to think, but it's a double bluff, just to watch how they react.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by steenkh

It looks like there will be no Ukrainian offensive for the time being. Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive

It's important to understand that an offensive is usually more successful when you take the enemy by surprise. On that basis, we can assume that Zelensky is going to do nothing that allows the Russians to narrow down the date of the offensive. The above statement may be a bluff or a double bluff or a triple bluff. The offensive may not be coming until July or it may have already started as I write this.

There's no point in trying to divine when the offensive is going to happen or where it is going to happen from the statements of people who actually know the answers to those questions. Sit back, relax and just wait for it.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I still think Prigozen is going the way of Ernst Rohm.

Think you're right there. Priggy is making himself more and more dispensible with each pronouncement.

More power to him.

[Drewbot]

I hadn't thought about this until today, but Prigozhin railing against the MOD of Russia, may be a tactic to get a large number of disgruntled soldiers to back him if he decides to execute a coup.

He is the only one standing up for the hundreds of thousands of conscripts.

Would they rally to him if he asked them to? Noone else in the Russian Government is standing up for them. etc...

Could Wagner turn and bring adjoining units under their wing? and domino it until he has enough units to turn on Moscow?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I still think Prigozen is going the way of Ernst Rohm.

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Think you're right there. Priggy is making himself more and more dispensible with each pronouncement.

More power to him.

Prigozhin isn't on Rohm's track, though. Rohm was assassinated in the early days, to make way for Hitler's rise to power within the party. Putin's long past that point in his political career. This would be more like assassinating Rommel. But even that isn't much of a parallel.

[jimbob]

Different topic again...

https://f24.my/9TbS

Quote:

Want to boast that you fought for the homeland, but without risking your life? Welcome to OBTF Cascade, the Russian military unit that allows career politicians and their military-aged sons to play war in Ukraine – at a safe and comfortable distance from the blood being spilled on the frontline.

[OhMan]

Steenkh can you please check your messages I need your help briefly with a query.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Oystein

In other news, the USA confirmed that Ukraine indeed managed to shoot down a "Kh-47M2 Kinzhal" hypersonic cruise missile with a Patriot system. Which I think is one of the best and brightest news items in all the reporting on military tech: There is one bit of hardware that the Russians are proud of, claim to have a lead on US/NATO and can actually field in this SMO (contrast e.g. the Armata tank) and which they showed off as something invincible - and now they learned, and we did, it isn't invincible after all. I wonder how many generals and other higher ups in Russia now gave up the last bit of hope.

The Kinzhal isn't a cruise missile it's just an ordinary ballistic missile that can be launched from an aircraft. It's not clear the air launched aspect adds anything over a far cheaper ground based launcher.

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

The knowledge that we have a working system to shoot down hypersonic missiles via an actual real world test against an actual potential real world adversary to the US DoD is extremely valuable. Like, hard to even put a price on it, but its gotta be well into the billions. We don't have to worry if we have a counter to Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles, we know we do. And maybe even better, they know it too.

Patriot was designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, most of which are technically hyper-sonic. A hyper-sonic cruise missile would represent a greater challenge but that's not what Kinzhal is.

[JoeMorgue]

That's not (exactly) the point. The point is the Kinzhal has been the big "Oohhh you're winning now but wait until we break out the Kinzhal" backhanded narrative Russia (and it's fanboys) have been pushing for about six months now.

Yeah we knew they were bluffing. But even when everyone at the table knows a bluff is a bluff it doesn't fully count until everyone turns their cards over.

Now the Russian are going to have to come up with a new excuse as to why they aren't winning and another "Okay but we'll definitely start winning once we do X" narrative.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by lomiller

The Kinzhal isn't a cruise missile it's just an ordinary ballistic missile that can be launched from an aircraft. It's not clear the air launched aspect adds anything over a far cheaper ground based launcher.



Patriot was designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, most of which are technically hyper-sonic. A hyper-sonic cruise missile would represent a greater challenge but that's not what Kinzhal is.

I think a ground-launched ballistic missile tends to spend a lot of time high in the sky, clearly visible on its easily-predictable ballistic trajectory. The interceptor has plenty of time to acquire the target and fly up to where it's going to be in a few minutes' time. I think things get trickier when the missile is air-launched, perhaps from much closer, on a course that is not initially ballistic. The interceptor may have less time to react, and may have less visibility of the airspace through which the missile is flying for part of its journey. Even worse if the missile can maneuver at all. An air-launched Iskander with a guidance system and a maneuvering kit (similar to the JDAM kits for dumb bombs) would be a very different proposition for a Patriot, than a traditional ground-launched ballistic missile. I don't know if the Kinzhal is such a system, though.

This is something the Chinese are working on, by the way: Maneuvering hypersonic warheads. One obvious scenario is a traditional ground-launched ballistic missile. The launch vehicle propels the payload to hypersonic speed, and then the payload glides towards its target and maneuvers as it goes. Either to avoid interceptors, or to intercept a moving target, or both. Basically a hypersonic smart bomb. The other scenario is a scramjet-powered cruise missile. This is boosted to scramjet speed by a rocket motor, then the scramjet sustains powered flight. Both of these scenarios put a lot of pressure on air defense systems that are optimized for slower targets, or hypersonic targets on big dumb ballistic trajectories. Assuming either one can be realized.

It should be noted that the US explored maneuvering reentry vehicles for its ICBM arsenal, but ultimately canceled those projects because they posed a risk to the MAD framework for peace. And it should be noted that the US also explored scramjet-powered cruise missiles, and also canceled those projects. Apparently because it wasn't worth the effort? It's not clear exactly why, but what is clear is that the US decided to invest in slower, stealthier, turbofan-powered cruise missiles instead.

I suspect the Chinese research into maneuvering hypersonics is because they feel they need something now, and they still haven't figured out stealth technology to the necessary degree.

[Jimbo07]

The Kremlin has issued a post saying it's NOT losing ground in Bakhmut. I can assume we are to take away the opposite, then?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

The Kremlin has issued a post saying it's NOT losing ground in Bakhmut. I can assume we are to take away the opposite, then?

This is a practice that has done well by me, the past year or so.

My current hypothesis is that AFU is using Bakhmut as a test kitchen for the counteroffensive. Small scale work to find some of the variances between training and live fire. Work out some of the kinks before committing large formations.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

The Kremlin has issued a post saying it's NOT losing ground in Bakhmut. I can assume we are to take away the opposite, then?

A bit of panic on Russian social media right now. Rumors of Ukrainian breakthroughs north and south of Bakhmut, Ukr military columns heading towards the Russian border north of Kharkiv, invasion boats massing on the Ukr-controlled side of the Dnipro, traffic jams of Russian civilians fleeing Mariupol. .

But Ukr social media is pretty silent or is just suggesting that there may be some probing and shaping operations going on, but not the real counter offensive.

Who knows? Not me.

[theprestige]

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Zelensky is gaslighting Moscow right now. "What counteroffensive? We're not ready yet. When the counteroffensive starts, you'll know it." All while quietly sticking the knife in, again and again.

[portlandatheist]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

I hadn't thought about this until today, but Prigozhin railing against the MOD of Russia, may be a tactic to get a large number of disgruntled soldiers to back him if he decides to execute a coup.

He is the only one standing up for the hundreds of thousands of conscripts.

Would they rally to him if he asked them to? Noone else in the Russian Government is standing up for them. etc...

Could Wagner turn and bring adjoining units under their wing? and domino it until he has enough units to turn on Moscow?

Civil special military operation?

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Zelensky is gaslighting Moscow right now. "What counteroffensive? We're not ready yet. When the counteroffensive starts, you'll know it." All while quietly sticking the knife in, again and again.

I think that's exactly what's happening.

[Jimbo07]

Or, it really is just probing and shaping. The problem for Russia is that they might not even be able to withstand the probing and shaping portion of this operation!

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

Or, it really is just probing and shaping. The problem for Russia is that they might not even be able to withstand the probing and shaping portion of this operation!

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

I think these are just probing attacks, and even just that is causing panic and desertion in Russian positions. This is gonna be a large scale rout soon.

[Aridas]

Chances of Russia fleeing Bahkmut in panic to prevent encirclement?

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

The Kremlin has issued a post saying it's NOT losing ground in Bakhmut. I can assume we are to take away the opposite, then?

Originally Posted by theprestige

This is a practice that has done well by me, the past year or so.

Back in the days of the USSR, nothing could ever be taken for granted until the Kremlin had issued an official denial.

Welcome back, Soviet Union! We didn't miss you, but there you are.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by lomiller

The Kinzhal isn't a cruise missile it's just an ordinary ballistic missile that can be launched from an aircraft. It's not clear the air launched aspect adds anything over a far cheaper ground based launcher.



Patriot was designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, most of which are technically hyper-sonic. A hyper-sonic cruise missile would represent a greater challenge but that's not what Kinzhal is.

It's not an "ordinary" ballistic missile either.
According to Wikipedia, it has a "guidance systen modified" from the Iskander it is based on, "[w]ith advanced maneuvering capabilities". An "ordinary" ballistic missile does not maneuver - that is the meaning of the word "ballistic".

An "ordinary ballistic" trajectory is easy to extrapolate and thus, in theory, to intercept; a maneuvering hypersonic path not so much.

The air launch has the advantage that it decreases the time from launch detection to impact, in case it's launch is detected by space-based sensors.

[Aridas]

For a moment of slight humor, courtesy of the not so official "Ukrainian Ministry of Accidental Russian Fires" -

Quote:

Ruscist positions always look like something out of Karma Sutra if Karma Sutra was about a dumpster & an outhouse mating & then blowing up during mating.

Comment in response to pictures of Russian positions abandoned near Bahkmut.

[Drewbot]

The increased pressure by Ukraine at Bakhmut is probably intended to have Russia not looking at Kherson where I think the main operation is going to take place.

Either across the water at Kherson city, to Crimea, or straight down to Melitopol or Mariupol , freeing up Zaporizhzhia & cutting Russian forces off from each other.

[theprestige]

Turns out the US had Kinzhal back in '81.

[SpitfireIX]

Jake Broe has opined that Zelenskyy is waiting for the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb^WP to arrive before launching the counteroffensive, which would make sense.

[FatherLukeduke]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

The increased pressure by Ukraine at Bakhmut is probably intended to have Russia not looking at Kherson where I think the main operation is going to take place.

I suspect Ukraine hasn't got one central rigid plan. That's for the Russians....well at least until they got punched in the face.

I think they will multiple overlapping plans with built flexibility built in. Attack and probe in multiple directions and see how the enemy reacts then flex as needed. All of it accompanied by full spectrum warfare: deluges of misinformation and propaganda. Sudden, coordinated, announcements of new weapon systems (Shadow Storm). Intelligence assets deep in enemy territory activated to create new "smoking incidents". Wave after wave of drones coming in every direction, sowing confusion and gathering intel. I don't think we will see any full frontal assault until they are good and ready, or rather until the enemy is good and ready for the taking.

At least that's my speculation based on what I've watched and read so far. It won't be easy though.

In other news: Russia just prisoner swapped 40 Azov fighters for just three pilots - which might tell you something about how many pilots they have left.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Turns out the US had Kinzhal back in '81.

It wouldn't be the first time the Russians copy a US Superweapon only to learn that it was only a stop-gap we were building on the way to the real weapon.

The Blackjack (or the Backfire I always get them mixed up) is a poor man's B-1 Lancer, a bomber we literally only built because the B-2 was taking too long to develop.

[theprestige]

Right now, Ukraine gets stronger with each passing day, while Moscow gets weaker. Therefore it is in Ukraine's interest to wait as long as possible, before seeking decisive battles. The more Ukraine can erode Moscow's strength in the mean time, the easier those decisive battles will be for the Ukrainians.

The grim calculus is this: At what point do Ukrainian casualties resulting from the delay in launching the counteroffensive outweigh the Ukrainian casualties resulting from the counteroffensive itself. On this point, Zelensky has made it clear that right now the answer is to wait.

[JoeMorgue]

- I don't know how much the old war fighting chestnut about it takes 4 attackers to every 1 defender (assuming a good dug in position) to make it an "even" fight still holds up, but it's at least SORTA true.

- The Russians biggest enemy is the crappy state of most of its equipment. They can't effectively deploy; maintaining supply lines, keeping equipment just... like moving and functional. An army that only works when it's 50 feet from a supply depot and a repair bay isn't an army, it's a showpiece.

Like I said if right now a SU-57 Felon and an F-22 were just put in the air, not to fight but just to fly around and see which one would just fall out of the sky first because bad maintance, bad supplies, poor design, or the simple whims without a single bullet being fired or missile being launched the SU-57 is gonna lose on a purely statistical level most of the time.

Before they can be good warfighting platforms planes and ships have to succeed at just being planes and ships that can stay afloat and aloft.

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

- I don't know how much the old war fighting chestnut about it takes 4 attackers to every 1 defender (assuming a good dug in position) to make it an "even" fight still holds up, but it's at least SORTA true.

- The Russians biggest enemy is the crappy state of most of its equipment. They can't effectively deploy; maintaining supply lines, keeping equipment just... like moving and functional. An army that only works when it's 50 feet from a supply depot and a repair bay isn't an army, it's a showpiece.

Like I said if right now a SU-57 Felon and an F-22 were just put in the air, not to fight but just to fly around and see which one would just fall out of the sky first because bad maintance, bad supplies, poor design, or the simple whims without a single bullet being fired or missile being launched the SU-57 is gonna lose on a purely statistical level most of the time.

Before they can be good warfighting platforms planes and ships have to succeed at just being planes and ships that can stay afloat and aloft.

The 4 to 1 attacking ratio is a myth in this case certainly. Based on equipment alone the Russian soldier is reduced to .75, supplies, support, communications, ability to work with adjacent defenders, brings them down to .25 of a soldier. So if you take 1 ukraine soldier to .25 of a Russian soldier, that is a 4 to 1 ratio. If the soldier's abilities, training and support were equal, then the 4 to actual 1 might be true. But that is not the case.

Seriously, just knowing that someone will come to help you if you are hit, is a massive benefit. The Russian soldiers know if they get hit they are likely not going home.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

The increased pressure by Ukraine at Bakhmut is probably intended to have Russia not looking at Kherson where I think the main operation is going to take place.

Either across the water at Kherson city, to Crimea, or straight down to Melitopol or Mariupol , freeing up Zaporizhzhia & cutting Russian forces off from each other.

A drive to Melitopol & then Mariupol would go straight south through Zaporizhzhia, not east from Kherson.

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

A drive to Melitopol & then Mariupol would go straight south through Zaporizhzhia, not east from Kherson.

Yes I was thinking Kherson Oblast stretched east to Mariupol. Good catch.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Oystein

It's not an "ordinary" ballistic missile either.
According to Wikipedia, it has a "guidance systen modified" from the Iskander it is based on, "[w]ith advanced maneuvering capabilities". An "ordinary" ballistic missile does not maneuver - that is the meaning of the word "ballistic".

As others have noted above maneuverable re-entry vehicles have been a thing since the 1960's. The US and UK even collaborated on an air launched maneuverable re-entry missile called the Skybolt that was canceled in 1962 because it didn't really have a mission that couldn't be done better by ground and submarine launched missiles.

Originally Posted by Oystein

The air launch has the advantage that it decreases the time from launch detection to impact, in case it's launch is detected by space-based sensors.

Just the opposite, actually. Because it can only be launched from a small number of special modified aircraft, you know the attack is coming as soon as you see one of these aircraft take off.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

Yes I was thinking Kherson Oblast stretched east to Mariupol. Good catch.

Even if it did, it just doesn't make sense to go east over the Dniepr when you've positions which bypass that massive obstacle.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Oystein

It's not an "ordinary" ballistic missile either.
According to Wikipedia, it has a "guidance systen modified" from the Iskander it is based on, "[w]ith advanced maneuvering capabilities". An "ordinary" ballistic missile does not maneuver - that is the meaning of the word "ballistic".

An "ordinary ballistic" trajectory is easy to extrapolate and thus, in theory, to intercept; a maneuvering hypersonic path not so much.

It's an open question whether the thing can maneuver as well as Moscow claims it does. And also whether Moscow can source the guidance system components in enough quantity and quality to make this more than an occasional novelty.

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Even if it did, it just doesn't make sense to go east over the Dniepr when you've positions which bypass that massive obstacle.

I think it will be combination of 1 and 2 or 1 and 3

[JoeMorgue]

History is full of Generals looking down on a map going "This way is obviously and clearly superior, 100% no question" and the grunt on the ground going "Yeah that ain't happening."