Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[pzkpfw]

Lukashenko needed Russian help to stay in power, so the question is, if he's gone (goes) does Russia take more control, or will the revolution come?

[Jack by the hedge]

Putin has no shortage of previous when it comes to exotic poisons mysteriously afflicting his opponents, but I'm surprised at the inference this misfortune can also befall one of his very few friends.

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-...larus-by-2030/

When Russia takes over Belarus, will that be because the Belarusian leadership is a bunch of Nazis?

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Putin has no shortage of previous when it comes to exotic poisons mysteriously afflicting his opponents, but I'm surprised at the inference this misfortune can also befall one of his very few friends.

That's a friend that refused to commit his army to Putin's folly though, perhaps he believes his new puppet will be more cooperative.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-...larus-by-2030/

The plan has been under way for years but the most significant recent part of the takeover was only a few months ago when Russia 'combined' the command and control of the armed forces.


https://tvpworld.com/63834442/belaru...ays-lukashenko

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Arrogance is blindness, a failing with which even otherwise clever people can be afflicted. Indeed it's possible clever people are more susceptible. And being in power doesn't usually discourage arrogance. I think Putin believed his own hype and the clarity that comes with humility either came too late or possibly hasn't yet arrived.

I think the leadership of all 3 Axis Nations in World War 2 is a textbook example of this.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Putin has no shortage of previous when it comes to exotic poisons mysteriously afflicting his opponents, but I'm surprised at the inference this misfortune can also befall one of his very few friends.

Does a person like Putin have "friends" in any sense of the term as you or I would understand it?

[Foster Zygote]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Does a person like Putin have "friends" in any sense of the term as you or I would understand it?

You're forgetting his BFF, Donald Trump.

Oh, and we can't forget Childlike Empress. She's probably doing his personal website, now.

[jimbob]

From a discord chat.

Quote:

I'm really having trouble understanding the Ukrainian strategy. They have hundreds of cruise missiles.

Quote:

Why are they not shooting them at random power stations.

That would get repaired in a couple of days?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Mike!

Gee, speaking of Belarus, is Lukashenko dead?

One can only hope.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

One can only hope.

I hope he survives and realises that Putin is his enemy.

Mind you, there's not really anywhere for him to go into exile

[Mike!]

And the mystery deepens...

"Belarus PM replaces Lukashenko at ceremony, sparks speculation"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...e37f8436&ei=12

Meanwhile, back in Russia...

"Putin’s Reportedly Had to Ban His Top Officials from Quitting as Ukraine War Falters"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...6a05f1d6&ei=24

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by jimbob

I hope he survives and realises that Putin is his enemy.

Mind you, there's not really anywhere for him to go into exile

I'm pretty sure Lukashenko already knows Putin is his enemy.

[Foster Zygote]

If Lukashenko is dead/about to die, does that mean he'll only get 78% of the vote in the next election.

[Shrinker]

Washington Post: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

Gift link for non-subscribers:
https://wapo.st/454RLs7

[Ian Osborne]

Originally Posted by Shrinker

Washington Post: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

Gift link for non-subscribers:
https://wapo.st/454RLs7

I doubt Ukraine has much trouble finding Russian units, given the satellite info they're given by the rest of the world.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Ian Osborne

I doubt Ukraine has much trouble finding Russian units, given the satellite info they're given by the rest of the world.

That and I supsect basic Russian security is lousy. The Ukrainians can probably pick up as lot just from Russian Radio traffic.

[Drewbot]

If I was Ukraine, I'd announce that the Wagner Chief was offering up troop locations to us as well.

[Jimbo07]

They said they ultimately didn't accept, because they couldn't trust him to uphold his end of the bargain!

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by dudalb

That and I supsect basic Russian security is lousy. The Ukrainians can probably pick up as lot just from Russian Radio traffic.

I think thats pretty safe to say... there was a Ukrainian unit that had a Belorussian with them. They captured a Russian radio set in a trench and then used it to call down Russian artillery on other Russian positions. So, I guess Russian OpSec is if they don't sound Ukrainian, they must be with us

[Shrinker]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

If I was Ukraine, I'd announce that the Wagner Chief was offering up troop locations to us as well.

What’s curious though, is that Ukraine didn’t announce it.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Shrinker

What’s curious though, is that Ukraine didn’t announce it.

I think it is understandable.

This is one situation where a leak (not an official announcement) would make it more likely to spread distrust between Wagner and the conventional forces.

See the comments about Captain HIMARS earlier

And as Beau of the Fifth Column points out, it would have to not be troop concentrations (as Ukraine would know those) but headquarters.



https://youtu.be/1p-YZDerIUI

[theprestige]

I think Ukraine is doing a lot of "I'm not saying, I'm just saying" propaganda operations in this war.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by timhau

Back in the days of the USSR, nothing could ever be taken for granted until the Kremlin had issued an official denial.

Welcome back, Soviet Union! We didn't miss you, but there you are.

It has long been an adage in the field of journalism to never believe anything until it is officially denied.

[Wildy]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

He must have had Putin's Special Blend Polonium Infused Tea. Now available in decaffenated!

To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. If anything Lukashenko it too independent for Russia's tastes so removing him in favour of someone more compliant wouldn't be surprising.

[Oystein]

My daily morning news tell me that last night, Russia launched an unusually fierce barrage of missiles against Kyiv: Instead of the usual swarm of Iranian drones augmented by occaisional bigger bangs (ship-based; repurposed S300...), there was a salvo, apparently in a short time interval, of 18 missiles, of which 6 were plane-launched Kinzhals, three land-based Iskanders (all super- to hypersonic), and 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the BlackSea.

And all18 were shot down, according to UA sources.

Wow.

Russia really wants to hit something. And can't. Just cannot.

Previously, when we discussed the shoot-down via Patriot of one Kinzhal, and what capabilities beyond mere speed those may have, I wondered if Western/Ukrainian air defense systems need some luck to hit one, whether perhaps only a smallish percentage can be expected to get killed.
Now, if reports are true, we know better: Our side takes Russian kit out of the sky very reliably, at least around expected and consequently well-defended targets like the capital.

[a_unique_person]

I don't believe reports like that.

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Oystein

My daily morning news tell me that last night, Russia launched an unusually fierce barrage of missiles against Kyiv: Instead of the usual swarm of Iranian drones augmented by occaisional bigger bangs (ship-based; repurposed S300...), there was a salvo, apparently in a short time interval, of 18 missiles, of which 6 were plane-launched Kinzhals, three land-based Iskanders (all super- to hypersonic), and 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the BlackSea.

And all18 were shot down, according to UA sources.

Wow.

Russia really wants to hit something. And can't. Just cannot.

Previously, when we discussed the shoot-down via Patriot of one Kinzhal, and what capabilities beyond mere speed those may have, I wondered if Western/Ukrainian air defense systems need some luck to hit one, whether perhaps only a smallish percentage can be expected to get killed.
Now, if reports are true, we know better: Our side takes Russian kit out of the sky very reliably, at least around expected and consequently well-defended targets like the capital.

The BBC?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65606385

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

I don't believe reports like that.

Well, thing is this happened over or near a very populated area - on Twitter, I already read several tweets from eyewitnesses - people just out on their balconies witnessing the launch of dozens of anti aircraft missiles, extremely loud explosions, and a light-show in the night.
So it is apparent that last night's attack&defence action was unusually intense.
If not all Russian craft were shot down, and some hit their targets, this will be found out.
If on the other hand, the attacking missiles weren't what the reports sy they were, then no parts of Kinzhals, Iskanders, Kalibrs will be recovered.

In short, the story is falsifiable.

I thus have some confidence it is true at least to a significant degree.
Because if Open Intelligence rebuts it, it will look very bad on the Ukrainian MoD.

It may turn out there were fewer Kinzhals; or that there were S-300 instead of Iskanders. Or that perhaps one or two did slip through after all.
But the gist will remain: Russia cannot hit high-value targets without wasting plenty of very expensive munitions. This type of warfare is more unsustainable for them than for the defenders.

----

In other news,

• France agreed to send their version of the Storm Shadow cruise missile
• Germany packed their biggest parcel to date - more tanks and anti-aircraft systems and stuff worth 3 billions
• UK and France announce intent to train AFU pilots - a first sign UA will eventually get F-16s
• Italy provides more anti-aircraft batteries
• (not so new, I may have missed it earlier) Egypt is said to deliver 152 mm ammo originally earmarked for Russia to Ukraine instead (cash money surely changed hands in Cairo somewhere)

That was a pretty nice shopping tour Zelinskyi did the last couple of days. Russia is screwed!

Originally Posted by Lplus

The BBC?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65606385

Everybody.

[Drewbot]

Fyi Air Defenses were able to knock down all 18 drones/cruise missiles, including 6- Kinzhal/Dagger Cruise missiles.

The fact that NATO can shoot down 100% of the supposedly superior 'hypersonic' missile, proves that Russian technology is decades behind western capabilities.

https://twitter.com/Seveerity/status...888726531?s=20

[Jimbo07]

A Patriot system may have taken some damage after all!

Quote:

A US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a United States official tells CNN. - CNN Rolling

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

A Patriot system may have taken some damage after all!

This raises afew questions:

1. The Patriot system is modular, with components typically being spread out on the ground: Launcher are at a distance from radar module,radar should be away from c&c module, etc. A system tyically should have more than 1 launcher. So question is: What kind of module was hit? Just a launcher, or one of the central components?
2. A module, if it can't be easily repaired in situ, probably can be replaced. How long does this take?
3. The entire system is mobile. It takes as little as 1 hour to set it up. Does this mean that the system should be moved frequently? Daily? Did the Ukrainians move as recommended?
4. If the system that was hit had been moved within the last, say, 24 hours, and the Russians targeted and hit it, then this would indicate that the Russians have the ablility to hit mobile systems. I.e. that they are able to identify and precisely geo-locate such a target deep behind enemy lines and plan and execute a fairly accurate missile attack within that time frame. Previously, there were serious doubts the Russians can strike anything mobile.

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by Oystein

4. If the system that was hit had been moved within the last, say, 24 hours, and the Russians targeted and hit it, then this would indicate that the Russians have the ablility to hit mobile systems. I.e. that they are able to identify and precisely geo-locate such a target deep behind enemy lines and plan and execute a fairly accurate missile attack within that time frame. Previously, there were serious doubts the Russians can strike anything mobile.

It could also mean that the Russians have well-placed informants.

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by steenkh

It could also mean that the Russians have well-placed informants.

Oh they most certainly do!

But information-gathering on the ground is only one step towards hitting a mobile target.

The more difficult steps for them then are to communicate the intelligence won on location to the appropriate generals, to make a decision, give an order, then for the group that plans missile strikes to program the strikes, and for the appropriate orders to go out to air bases, such that a half dozen Mig31s is armed with a Kinzhal each, and they all take off in close temporal sequence to launch their payloads within minutes. And all this in time before the Patriot system moves again.
THAT seems to have been the more limiting problem facing the Russian military and its doctrines.

They struggle with this sort of operation on the small scale of counter-artillery, and they struggle to plan and execute hits on moving targets behind enemy lines. For example, I read the other day that Russia has yet to hit a moving supply train. Something Ukrainians do from time to time.

[steenkh]

Am I right in thinking that it is more difficult for a Patriot anti-missile missile to hit a missile that is heading straight towards it than a missile that is aiming at something else?

[Mike!]

The Patriot system shoots missiles that take down other missiles. It's not a disintegrator ray, so the missiles that are shot down still create debris which has to fall someplace. The reports are the system was "damaged", not destroyed. That could have been the result of destroyed debris landing on part of the system and causing some level of damage reported.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by steenkh

Am I right in thinking that it is more difficult for a Patriot anti-missile missile to hit a missile that is heading straight towards it than a missile that is aiming at something else?

Seems like it would be easier. Don't have to turn as much to intercept, don't have to try to chase it from behind.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Oystein

France agreed to send their version of the Storm Shadow cruise missile

According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi?

Mind you, I'm not disputing the claim, I've seen it reported multiple places. If they're sending these missiles, they must have something in mind for how they will get used. I'm just wondering what the plan actually is, because so far that doesn't seem to be public.

Anyways, with the range on these, I imagine Russia's never going to get the Kerch Strait bridge back in action once they're deployed.

Quote:

[*]UK and France announce intent to train AFU pilots - a first sign UA will eventually get F-16s

One of the big advantages to the F-16, even over comparable aircraft which could probably perform just as well, is that Poland already has the support infrastructure for F-16's in place. Maintenance/repair is a big deal for modern fighter aircraft, and Poland having that infrastructure already in place for the F-16 is a really big leg up in terms of how fast they could get up to speed with using it.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by steenkh

Am I right in thinking that it is more difficult for a Patriot anti-missile missile to hit a missile that is heading straight towards it than a missile that is aiming at something else?

Higher relative velocity is always harder (your tolerances are lower, less time to make corrections), but I'm not sure direction makes that much difference in this case. The Patriot itself doesn't go super-fast, probably much slower than an incoming ballistic missile. So even if you're approaching from the side, the relative velocity for a ballistic missile probably won't be all that much lower.

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Mike!

The Patriot system shoots missiles that take down other missiles. It's not a disintegrator ray, so the missiles that are shot down still create debris which has to fall someplace. The reports are the system was "damaged", not destroyed. That could have been the result of destroyed debris landing on part of the system and causing some level of damage reported.

That is an entirely too reasonable suggestion - how dare you!