[Continuation] The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7 - Page 8

theprestige · 17th May 2023, 07:45 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi?

Mind you, I'm not disputing the claim, I've seen it reported multiple places. If they're sending these missiles, they must have something in mind for how they will get used. I'm just wondering what the plan actually is, because so far that doesn't seem to be public.

Anyways, with the range on these, I imagine Russia's never going to get the Kerch Strait bridge back in action once they're deployed.

One of the big advantages to the F-16, even over comparable aircraft which could probably perform just as well, is that Poland already has the support infrastructure for F-16's in place. Maintenance/repair is a big deal for modern fighter aircraft, and Poland having that infrastructure already in place for the F-16 is a really big leg up in terms of how fast they could get up to speed with using it.

Other NATO missiles have already been adapted to launch from Warsaw pact planes (or the planes have been adapted to launch the missiles). In some cases, it seems the Ukrainian planes have been only able to use the basic functions of the NATO missiles, since they cannot fully integrate with the missile software.

I think the most plausible scenario is that Ukrainian planes already equipped with NATO pylons can mount and launch the Storm Shadow, and that the missile itself is preprogrammed with a target and handles all of the heavy thinking itself instead of integrating with the plane's targeting system.

SpitfireIX · 17th May 2023, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi?

Mind you, I'm not disputing the claim, I've seen it reported multiple places. If they're sending these missiles, they must have something in mind for how they will get used. I'm just wondering what the plan actually is, because so far that doesn't seem to be public.

Anyways, with the range on these, I imagine Russia's never going to get the Kerch Strait bridge back in action once they're deployed.

The Russians have released photos of Storm Shadow wreckage at one of the targets, so they obviously are being used.

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

One of the big advantages to the F-16, even over comparable aircraft which could probably perform just as well, is that Poland already has the support infrastructure for F-16's in place. Maintenance/repair is a big deal for modern fighter aircraft, and Poland having that infrastructure already in place for the F-16 is a really big leg up in terms of how fast they could get up to speed with using it.

Until recently, I was opposed to F-16s for Ukraine at this time, due to the fact that they are so susceptible to damaged runways. But with the recent dramatic improvement in Ukraine's air defenses, I've reconsidered, and I now favor sending F-16s. I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though.

Trebuchet · 17th May 2023, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by Oystein

This raises afew questions:

1. The Patriot system is modular, with components typically being spread out on the ground: Launcher are at a distance from radar module,radar should be away from c&c module, etc. A system tyically should have more than 1 launcher. So question is: What kind of module was hit? Just a launcher, or one of the central components?
2. A module, if it can't be easily repaired in situ, probably can be replaced. How long does this take?
3. The entire system is mobile. It takes as little as 1 hour to set it up. Does this mean that the system should be moved frequently? Daily? Did the Ukrainians move as recommended?
4. If the system that was hit had been moved within the last, say, 24 hours, and the Russians targeted and hit it, then this would indicate that the Russians have the ablility to hit mobile systems. I.e. that they are able to identify and precisely geo-locate such a target deep behind enemy lines and plan and execute a fairly accurate missile attack within that time frame. Previously, there were serious doubts the Russians can strike anything mobile.

I'd think the most likely module to have been hit would be the radar, anti-radiation missles being a thing. Like the US HARM.

Jimbo07 · 17th May 2023, 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

I've reconsidered, and I now favor sending F-16s. I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though.

If they can get F-16 in numbers, they'll be better off. A split fleet requires split training, maintenance, etc. This is especially important as they may have a split fleet for sometime, anyway, keeping the MiG-29s going as the F-16 stock builds.

Ziggurat · 17th May 2023, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though.

The Gripen itself would be a great plane for them, but the logistic support problem is a much bigger hurdle than for the F16.

Oystein · 17th May 2023, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi?
...

The latter.
Wouldn't be the first NATO missile they (I think the Poles, actually) fit to a Soviet airframe. Same was done last year with the AGM-88 HARM.

Oystein · 17th May 2023, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

I'd think the most likely module to have been hit would be the radar, anti-radiation missles being a thing. Like the US HARM.

But the attacking missiles launched supposedly are hypersonic - Russia I believe insists that a Kinzhal managed to "destroy" some Patriot thingy. Hypersonics quite certainly do not have the sensors to actively seek a target and home in, due to their producing a plasma around them which seriously interferes with anything electromagnetic.

ohms · 17th May 2023, 10:00 AM

Originally Posted by Oystein

The latter.
Wouldn't be the first NATO missile they (I think the Poles, actually) fit to a Soviet airframe. Same was done last year with the AGM-88 HARM.

Exactly this. There were reports late last year that Ukraine had moved an Su-24 to Poland to integrate Storm Shadow. I guess the reports were true this time.

Here's one report from December:

https://avia-pro.net/news/v-polshe-n...ketami-scalp-i

ETA:

According to reports the damage to the Patriot battery is minimal and it remains operational.

theprestige · 17th May 2023, 10:09 AM

Hollywood Expectation: "Direct hit to the radar! If we don't jury rig something now, we're screwed!"

Boring Reality: "Debris struck one of the Transporter-Erector-Launcher trucks. We just want to give it a once-over, make sure no critical component has been damaged... Yep, looks good. Make a note to replace that side mirror on the passenger side of the cab, the next time it goes to the maintenance depot."

ETA: Especially because Patriot is a new system to the Ukrainians, and it was rushed into service with them. It stands to reason they wouldn't necessarily know right away what's "cosmetic" or "acceptable" damage, and what's an actual no-go in terms of continuing combat operation. So they'll make a bigger deal out of a closer examination than, say, a veteran US Patriot unit.

Jimbo07 · 17th May 2023, 10:28 AM

So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community?

Just asking for a friend.

jimbob · 17th May 2023, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community?

Just asking for a friend.

I guess there is some context to this that I have missed.

It seems a very pointed question, and I really want to know what it's pointed about.

Steve · 17th May 2023, 11:04 AM

Originally Posted by jimbob

I guess there is some context to this that I have missed.

It seems a very pointed question, and I really want to know what it's pointed about.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1

jimbob · 17th May 2023, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by Steve

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1

Cheers

Foster Zygote · 17th May 2023, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community?

Just asking for a friend.

Putin's been reading the Stalin Playbook on the toilet, again.

gnome · 17th May 2023, 07:47 PM

Originally Posted by Foster Zygote

Putin's been reading the Stalin Playbook on the toilet, again.

Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb.

steenkh · 17th May 2023, 10:38 PM

Originally Posted by Steve

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1

Two of the three scientists were arrested in July and August last year, so it does not seem to have a connection to the failures of super-missiles this year. The third was arrested in April, which was also before the failures were obvious.

That scientists are arrested for publishing sensitive materials after the publication has been screened to be acceptable, certainly makes it a difficult time to be a scientist in Russia.

steenkh · 17th May 2023, 10:47 PM

Originally Posted by gnome

Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb.

Why is that dumb? Stalin died a natural death at the height of his power. If Putin wants to make Russia great again, and have more personal power than any other person in the world, Stalin is certainly an ideal.

Like Putin today, Stalin also lived in fear of an assassination, and that may have contributed to his death when he jailed all the doctors that might have helped him when he got his final stroke.

Iztok67 · 17th May 2023, 11:07 PM

Originally Posted by steenkh

Like Putin today, Stalin also lived in fear of an assassination, and that may have contributed to his death when he jailed all the doctors that might have helped him when he got his final stroke.

Tito's letter in Stalin's office read: 'Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle... If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-attempts.html

Foster Zygote · 18th May 2023, 10:01 AM

Originally Posted by gnome

Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb.

Now that's quote-worthy.

dudalb · 18th May 2023, 02:04 PM

That Stalin is now a popular figure in Russia scares the hell out of me.

Jimbo07 · 18th May 2023, 02:43 PM

Quote:

US signals to allies that it won’t block them from exporting F-16 jets to Ukraine - CNN Rolling

First cracks in the resistance to sending F-16 to Ukraine?

F-16 is inevitable in Ukraine. The US will likely approve transfers in a post-war peacetime to rebuild their airforce, and have already sent signals as such. The question is, will this latest move allow Ukraine to receive F-16 before the war ends?

Doubt · 18th May 2023, 05:47 PM

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

First cracks in the resistance to sending F-16 to Ukraine?

F-16 is inevitable in Ukraine. The US will likely approve transfers in a post-war peacetime to rebuild their airforce, and have already sent signals as such. The question is, will this latest move allow Ukraine to receive F-16 before the war ends?

The funny thing is, US allies have newer, better versions of the F-16 than the US does.

Aridas · 18th May 2023, 11:58 PM

In some positive news, it looks like Bucha's been rebuilt. At least partially. A picture can tell a lot, though.

Elsewhere, there's stuff like...

Quote:

Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.

Russian forces have likely continued to gain ground in Bakhmut itself and are focusing heavy artillery fire on the last little bit. Bakhmut itself may well finally fully fall very soon. Around Bakhmut, though, Russian forces apparently keep getting overrun. Ukraine's apparently regained ground around Avdiivka, as well, possibly related to forces getting stripped and sent to Bakhmut.

In another milestone, Russian losses are reported to have crossed 200,000.

Also, well... umm...

Quote:

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces artificially raised the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir, hindering Russian defensive operations. Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces flooded their own positions on the reservoir banks, sustaining losses and igniting scandal.

Uh huh. Flood your own troops, eh?

The Great Zaganza · 19th May 2023, 12:25 AM

Originally Posted by Aridas

In some positive news, it looks like Bucha's been rebuilt. At least partially. A picture can tell a lot, though.

Elsewhere, there's stuff like...

Russian forces have likely continued to gain ground in Bakhmut itself and are focusing heavy artillery fire on the last little bit. Bakhmut itself may well finally fully fall very soon. Around Bakhmut, though, Russian forces apparently keep getting overrun. Ukraine's apparently regained ground around Avdiivka, as well, possibly related to forces getting stripped and sent to Bakhmut.

In another milestone, Russian losses are reported to have crossed 200,000.

Also, well... umm...

Uh huh. Flood your own troops, eh?

Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..."

theprestige · 19th May 2023, 06:39 AM

Originally Posted by Doubt

The funny thing is, US allies have newer, better versions of the F-16 than the US does.

The newer, better version of the F-16 in US service being the F-35.

The interesting thing is that the F-16V, an upgrade of a late-70s plane, is still competitive with ultramodern 4th-gen designs like the the Typhoon and the Rafale.

Anyway, as much as I'd like to see the Gripen get wider adoption, and as much as I'm naively convinced it would be almost ideal for Ukraine's needs, the F-16V seems like it's probably going to be the right choice for that country.

theprestige · 19th May 2023, 06:41 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..."

You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home.

The Great Zaganza · 19th May 2023, 08:05 AM

Originally Posted by theprestige

You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home.

They have a plan B.

JoeMorgue · 19th May 2023, 08:19 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..."

Yes, although there are some reports they are starting to tone that down.

"More than 3,000 points of explosions are publicly known to have been installed throughout the tiny Alpine country."

https://99percentinvisible.org/artic...re-to-explode/

https://theswisstimes.ch/why-swiss-b...pine%20country.

https://gizmodo.com/how-switzerland-...archit-5919581

https://www.businessinsider.com/swit...-system-2015-1

TragicMonkey · 19th May 2023, 08:29 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

They have a plan B.

You can always bank on Swiss secretiveness.

ZirconBlue · 19th May 2023, 10:14 AM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

You can always bank on Swiss secretiveness.

Oystein · 19th May 2023, 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by theprestige

You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home.

The Swiss supposedly have prepared all their tunnels with self-destruct / blocking shenanigans, to force any invading army to go over mountain passes.

quadraginta · 19th May 2023, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

They have a plan B.

Does it involve apples?

The Great Zaganza · 19th May 2023, 11:22 AM

Originally Posted by quadraginta

Does it involve apples?

Alphorns

Mike! · 19th May 2023, 01:59 PM

Looks like the US is going to give Ukraine some F-16s too, along with the necessary training to go with them. Should prove to be a rather interesting summer indeed.

lobosrul5 · 19th May 2023, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by Mike!

Looks like the US is going to give Ukraine some F-16s too, along with the necessary training to go with them. Should prove to be a rather interesting summer indeed.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Rather interesting video I watched yesterday*, starting at around 12:10 he talks about some leaked documents about what the USAF found when giving a couple of Ukrainian pilots a go on their F-16 simulator. They were seemingly somewhat impressed.

Likely a ~4 month program to get Ukrainian fighter pilots up to speed on F-16's.

*of note, the guy is a civilian pilot from Ukraine

Anyways, more fuel to my perspective that the war is basically unwinnable for Russia at this point. NATO is just going to give Ukraine whatever weaponry they need to defeat them.

Trebuchet · 19th May 2023, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Anyways, more fuel to my perspective that the war is basically unwinnable for Russia at this point. NATO is just going to give Ukraine whatever weaponry they need to defeat them.

The war is winnable by Russia because Donald Trump has at least a 50/50 chance of being President in January 2025. They just need to hold on until then.

lobosrul5 · 19th May 2023, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

The war is winnable by Russia because Donald Trump has at least a 50/50 chance of being President in January 2025. They just need to hold on until then.

It'll be over by then. If the summer 2023 offensive isn't good enough to return to pre-2014 borders, then the summer 2024 offensive will be. Hopefully Biden and the more pro-Ukraine GOP congress critters can work out a deal to get $100 billion or so in aide to Ukraine, or just sitting across the border in Poland ready to go in late 2024 if Trump is elected. That plus continued support from the European part of NATO should be enough to keep Russia out.

Unfortunately I think your 50/50 estimate is low at this point

Like 2020 the dem candidate will need to take like every single potential swing state, save 1 possibly. Its a stacked deck.

Jimbo07 · 19th May 2023, 04:04 PM

DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.

tyr_13 · 19th May 2023, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.

But we were assured the GOP would oppose that!

quadraginta · 19th May 2023, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by tyr_13

But we were assured the GOP would oppose that!

Remember how you can tell they're lying?

17th May 2023, 07:45 AM	#281
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 64,295	Originally Posted by Ziggurat According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi? Mind you, I'm not disputing the claim, I've seen it reported multiple places. If they're sending these missiles, they must have something in mind for how they will get used. I'm just wondering what the plan actually is, because so far that doesn't seem to be public. Anyways, with the range on these, I imagine Russia's never going to get the Kerch Strait bridge back in action once they're deployed. One of the big advantages to the F-16, even over comparable aircraft which could probably perform just as well, is that Poland already has the support infrastructure for F-16's in place. Maintenance/repair is a big deal for modern fighter aircraft, and Poland having that infrastructure already in place for the F-16 is a really big leg up in terms of how fast they could get up to speed with using it. Other NATO missiles have already been adapted to launch from Warsaw pact planes (or the planes have been adapted to launch the missiles). In some cases, it seems the Ukrainian planes have been only able to use the basic functions of the NATO missiles, since they cannot fully integrate with the missile software. I think the most plausible scenario is that Ukrainian planes already equipped with NATO pylons can mount and launch the Storm Shadow, and that the missile itself is preprogrammed with a target and handles all of the heavy thinking itself instead of integrating with the plane's targeting system.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division.

17th May 2023, 08:08 AM	#282
SpitfireIX Philosopher Join Date: May 2007 Location: Niceville, Florida, USA Posts: 5,784	Originally Posted by Ziggurat According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi? Mind you, I'm not disputing the claim, I've seen it reported multiple places. If they're sending these missiles, they must have something in mind for how they will get used. I'm just wondering what the plan actually is, because so far that doesn't seem to be public. Anyways, with the range on these, I imagine Russia's never going to get the Kerch Strait bridge back in action once they're deployed. The Russians have released photos of Storm Shadow wreckage at one of the targets, so they obviously are being used. Originally Posted by Ziggurat One of the big advantages to the F-16, even over comparable aircraft which could probably perform just as well, is that Poland already has the support infrastructure for F-16's in place. Maintenance/repair is a big deal for modern fighter aircraft, and Poland having that infrastructure already in place for the F-16 is a really big leg up in terms of how fast they could get up to speed with using it. Until recently, I was opposed to F-16s for Ukraine at this time, due to the fact that they are so susceptible to damaged runways. But with the recent dramatic improvement in Ukraine's air defenses, I've reconsidered, and I now favor sending F-16s. I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though.
	__________________ "My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." --Carl Schurz Last edited by SpitfireIX; 17th May 2023 at 08:30 AM. Reason: Stupid posting trick

17th May 2023, 09:03 AM	#283
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 36,519	Originally Posted by Oystein This raises afew questions: 1. The Patriot system is modular, with components typically being spread out on the ground: Launcher are at a distance from radar module,radar should be away from c&c module, etc. A system tyically should have more than 1 launcher. So question is: What kind of module was hit? Just a launcher, or one of the central components? 2. A module, if it can't be easily repaired in situ, probably can be replaced. How long does this take? 3. The entire system is mobile. It takes as little as 1 hour to set it up. Does this mean that the system should be moved frequently? Daily? Did the Ukrainians move as recommended? 4. If the system that was hit had been moved within the last, say, 24 hours, and the Russians targeted and hit it, then this would indicate that the Russians have the ablility to hit mobile systems. I.e. that they are able to identify and precisely geo-locate such a target deep behind enemy lines and plan and execute a fairly accurate missile attack within that time frame. Previously, there were serious doubts the Russians can strike anything mobile. I'd think the most likely module to have been hit would be the radar, anti-radiation missles being a thing. Like the US HARM.
	__________________ Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.

17th May 2023, 09:06 AM	#284
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	Originally Posted by SpitfireIX I've reconsidered, and I now favor sending F-16s. I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though. If they can get F-16 in numbers, they'll be better off. A split fleet requires split training, maintenance, etc. This is especially important as they may have a split fleet for sometime, anyway, keeping the MiG-29s going as the F-16 stock builds.
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key

17th May 2023, 09:22 AM	#285
Ziggurat Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 53,886	Originally Posted by SpitfireIX I still think Ukraine should receive Sweden's Gripen in addition, though. The Gripen itself would be a great plane for them, but the logistic support problem is a much bigger hurdle than for the F16.
	__________________ "As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law

17th May 2023, 09:31 AM	#286
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 18,468	Originally Posted by Ziggurat According to the Wikipedia page, this is an air-launched cruise missile. But I'm not aware that Ukraine has anything on the list of plane that it can launch from (Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Typhoon), and I wasn't aware that they were going to get any of these. Am I out of date on that? Or are they going to try to make some sort of adapter to be able to launch from a MiG or Sukhoi? ... The latter. Wouldn't be the first NATO missile they (I think the Poles, actually) fit to a Soviet airframe. Same was done last year with the AGM-88 HARM.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

17th May 2023, 09:37 AM	#287
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 18,468	Originally Posted by Trebuchet I'd think the most likely module to have been hit would be the radar, anti-radiation missles being a thing. Like the US HARM. But the attacking missiles launched supposedly are hypersonic - Russia I believe insists that a Kinzhal managed to "destroy" some Patriot thingy. Hypersonics quite certainly do not have the sensors to actively seek a target and home in, due to their producing a plasma around them which seriously interferes with anything electromagnetic.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

17th May 2023, 10:00 AM	#288
ohms Graduate Poster Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 1,523	Originally Posted by Oystein The latter. Wouldn't be the first NATO missile they (I think the Poles, actually) fit to a Soviet airframe. Same was done last year with the AGM-88 HARM. Exactly this. There were reports late last year that Ukraine had moved an Su-24 to Poland to integrate Storm Shadow. I guess the reports were true this time. Here's one report from December: https://avia-pro.net/news/v-polshe-n...ketami-scalp-i ETA: According to reports the damage to the Patriot battery is minimal and it remains operational.
ohms Graduate Poster Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 1,523	__________________ Long time lurker Last edited by ohms; 17th May 2023 at 10:01 AM.

17th May 2023, 10:09 AM	#289
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 64,295	Hollywood Expectation: "Direct hit to the radar! If we don't jury rig something now, we're screwed!" Boring Reality: "Debris struck one of the Transporter-Erector-Launcher trucks. We just want to give it a once-over, make sure no critical component has been damaged... Yep, looks good. Make a note to replace that side mirror on the passenger side of the cab, the next time it goes to the maintenance depot." ETA: Especially because Patriot is a new system to the Ukrainians, and it was rushed into service with them. It stands to reason they wouldn't necessarily know right away what's "cosmetic" or "acceptable" damage, and what's an actual no-go in terms of continuing combat operation. So they'll make a bigger deal out of a closer examination than, say, a veteran US Patriot unit.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division. Last edited by theprestige; 17th May 2023 at 10:12 AM.

17th May 2023, 10:28 AM	#290
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community? Just asking for a friend.
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key

17th May 2023, 10:59 AM	#291
jimbob Uncritical "thinker" Moderator Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: UK Posts: 30,043	Originally Posted by Jimbo07 So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community? Just asking for a friend. I guess there is some context to this that I have missed. It seems a very pointed question, and I really want to know what it's pointed about.
	__________________ OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK

17th May 2023, 11:04 AM	#292
Steve Penultimate Amazing Join Date: May 2005 Location: Sydney Nova Scotia Posts: 12,576	Originally Posted by jimbob I guess there is some context to this that I have missed. It seems a very pointed question, and I really want to know what it's pointed about. https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1
	__________________ Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"

17th May 2023, 12:15 PM	#293
jimbob Uncritical "thinker" Moderator Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: UK Posts: 30,043	Originally Posted by Steve https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1 Cheers
	__________________ OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK

17th May 2023, 07:17 PM	#294
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 20,747	Originally Posted by Jimbo07 So... if you want to develop the next generation of missiles, should you arrest all your missile scientists, just because they haven't proven to be as wildly successful as in your fever dreams? Might not one be shooting oneself in the foot by putting a chill on your scientific community? Just asking for a friend. Putin's been reading the Stalin Playbook on the toilet, again.
	__________________ Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone.

17th May 2023, 07:47 PM	#295
gnome Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 13,741	Originally Posted by Foster Zygote Putin's been reading the Stalin Playbook on the toilet, again. Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb.
	__________________

17th May 2023, 10:38 PM	#296
steenkh Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Denmark Posts: 6,844	Originally Posted by Steve https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...on-2023-5?op=1 Two of the three scientists were arrested in July and August last year, so it does not seem to have a connection to the failures of super-missiles this year. The third was arrested in April, which was also before the failures were obvious. That scientists are arrested for publishing sensitive materials after the publication has been screened to be acceptable, certainly makes it a difficult time to be a scientist in Russia.
	__________________ Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none!

17th May 2023, 10:47 PM	#297
steenkh Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Denmark Posts: 6,844	Originally Posted by gnome Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb. Why is that dumb? Stalin died a natural death at the height of his power. If Putin wants to make Russia great again, and have more personal power than any other person in the world, Stalin is certainly an ideal. Like Putin today, Stalin also lived in fear of an assassination, and that may have contributed to his death when he jailed all the doctors that might have helped him when he got his final stroke.
	__________________ Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none!

17th May 2023, 11:07 PM	#298
Iztok67 New Blood Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 6	Originally Posted by steenkh Like Putin today, Stalin also lived in fear of an assassination, and that may have contributed to his death when he jailed all the doctors that might have helped him when he got his final stroke. Tito's letter in Stalin's office read: 'Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle... If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second.' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-attempts.html
Iztok67 New Blood Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 6

18th May 2023, 10:01 AM	#299
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 20,747	Originally Posted by gnome Seems about right... he would practically have to study history in order to figure out how to do something that dumb. Now that's quote-worthy.
	__________________ Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone.

18th May 2023, 02:04 PM	#300
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 58,605	That Stalin is now a popular figure in Russia scares the hell out of me.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

18th May 2023, 02:43 PM	#301
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	Quote: US signals to allies that it won’t block them from exporting F-16 jets to Ukraine - CNN Rolling First cracks in the resistance to sending F-16 to Ukraine? F-16 is inevitable in Ukraine. The US will likely approve transfers in a post-war peacetime to rebuild their airforce, and have already sent signals as such. The question is, will this latest move allow Ukraine to receive F-16 before the war ends?
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,410	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key

18th May 2023, 05:47 PM	#302
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,834	Originally Posted by Jimbo07 First cracks in the resistance to sending F-16 to Ukraine? F-16 is inevitable in Ukraine. The US will likely approve transfers in a post-war peacetime to rebuild their airforce, and have already sent signals as such. The question is, will this latest move allow Ukraine to receive F-16 before the war ends? The funny thing is, US allies have newer, better versions of the F-16 than the US does.
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,834	__________________ 45 es un titere

18th May 2023, 11:58 PM	#303
Aridas Crazy Little Green Dragon Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: East Coast, US Posts: 9,942	In some positive news, it looks like Bucha's been rebuilt. At least partially. A picture can tell a lot, though. Elsewhere, there's stuff like... Quote: Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline. Russian forces have likely continued to gain ground in Bakhmut itself and are focusing heavy artillery fire on the last little bit. Bakhmut itself may well finally fully fall very soon. Around Bakhmut, though, Russian forces apparently keep getting overrun. Ukraine's apparently regained ground around Avdiivka, as well, possibly related to forces getting stripped and sent to Bakhmut. In another milestone, Russian losses are reported to have crossed 200,000. Also, well... umm... Quote: A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces artificially raised the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir, hindering Russian defensive operations. Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces flooded their own positions on the reservoir banks, sustaining losses and igniting scandal. Uh huh. Flood your own troops, eh?
	__________________ So sayeth the crazy little dragon.

19th May 2023, 12:25 AM	#304
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 19,888	Originally Posted by Aridas In some positive news, it looks like Bucha's been rebuilt. At least partially. A picture can tell a lot, though. Elsewhere, there's stuff like... Russian forces have likely continued to gain ground in Bakhmut itself and are focusing heavy artillery fire on the last little bit. Bakhmut itself may well finally fully fall very soon. Around Bakhmut, though, Russian forces apparently keep getting overrun. Ukraine's apparently regained ground around Avdiivka, as well, possibly related to forces getting stripped and sent to Bakhmut. In another milestone, Russian losses are reported to have crossed 200,000. Also, well... umm... Uh huh. Flood your own troops, eh? Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..."
	__________________ “Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.”

19th May 2023, 06:39 AM	#305
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 64,295	Originally Posted by Doubt The funny thing is, US allies have newer, better versions of the F-16 than the US does. The newer, better version of the F-16 in US service being the F-35. The interesting thing is that the F-16V, an upgrade of a late-70s plane, is still competitive with ultramodern 4th-gen designs like the the Typhoon and the Rafale. Anyway, as much as I'd like to see the Gripen get wider adoption, and as much as I'm naively convinced it would be almost ideal for Ukraine's needs, the F-16V seems like it's probably going to be the right choice for that country.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division.

19th May 2023, 06:41 AM	#306
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 64,295	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..." You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division.

19th May 2023, 08:05 AM	#307
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 19,888	Originally Posted by theprestige You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home. They have a plan B.
	__________________ “Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.”

19th May 2023, 08:19 AM	#308
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 44,080	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza Someone read about the last-ditch plan of the Swiss in case of invasion to blow up all their dams and basically sink their own country and thought: "that might just work ..." Yes, although there are some reports they are starting to tone that down. "More than 3,000 points of explosions are publicly known to have been installed throughout the tiny Alpine country." https://99percentinvisible.org/artic...re-to-explode/ https://theswisstimes.ch/why-swiss-b...pine%20country. https://gizmodo.com/how-switzerland-...archit-5919581 https://www.businessinsider.com/swit...-system-2015-1
	__________________ "If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong.

19th May 2023, 08:29 AM	#309
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 66,006	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza They have a plan B. You can always bank on Swiss secretiveness.
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

19th May 2023, 10:14 AM	#310
ZirconBlue Sole Survivor of L-Town Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Lexington, KY, USA, Earth Posts: 14,808	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey You can always bank on Swiss secretiveness.
	__________________ Religion and sex are powerplays. Manipulate the people for the money they pay. Selling skin, selling God The numbers look the same on their credit cards.

19th May 2023, 10:29 AM	#311
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 18,468	Originally Posted by theprestige You may be thinking of the Dutch. I'm pretty sure the last ditch plan of the Swiss is to shoot twice and go home. The Swiss supposedly have prepared all their tunnels with self-destruct / blocking shenanigans, to force any invading army to go over mountain passes.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

19th May 2023, 10:58 AM	#312
quadraginta Becoming Beth Join Date: May 2009 Location: Central Vale of Humility (USA, sort of) Posts: 26,840	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza They have a plan B. Does it involve apples?
	__________________ "A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep." "Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation."

19th May 2023, 11:22 AM	#313
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 19,888	Originally Posted by quadraginta Does it involve apples? Alphorns
	__________________ “Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.”

19th May 2023, 01:59 PM	#314
Mike! Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it! Join Date: May 2010 Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not! Posts: 50,196	Looks like the US is going to give Ukraine some F-16s too, along with the necessary training to go with them. Should prove to be a rather interesting summer indeed.
	__________________ "Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes... Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."

19th May 2023, 03:52 PM	#316
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 36,519	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Anyways, more fuel to my perspective that the war is basically unwinnable for Russia at this point. NATO is just going to give Ukraine whatever weaponry they need to defeat them. The war is winnable by Russia because Donald Trump has at least a 50/50 chance of being President in January 2025. They just need to hold on until then.
	__________________ Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.