Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by Oystein

The Swiss supposedly have prepared all their tunnels with self-destruct / blocking shenanigans, to force any invading army to go over mountain passes.

There's no supposedly there, that was Switzerland's defence plan towards a joint German-Italian invasion during World War 2, have the army stage delaying actions to evacuate civilians, then fall back to the central Alpine areas and blow up the passes to create a giant natural fortress in the centre of the country.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.

Although I suppose there's a non-zero chance that Trump might actually say that, the practical effects would likely be minimal, other than reducing Trump's already diminished political capital even further (but see my next post).

First, what do you imagine Zelensky's response would be? "Oh, yes, Mr. Trump, I'll call President Putin right away and sue for peace!"??

Second, even if the Republicans take the Senate and increase their majority in the House of Representatives, no bill to provide weapons to Russia would ever pass Congress, for a variety of reasons.

ETA: And Trump wouldn't say please.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by tyr_13

But we were assured the GOP would oppose that!

Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.

Of the three scenarios only the first has even a chance of being true. The journalists that would be locked up are as critical of republitraitor pols generally as they are Trump. And if they voted against Russia getting arms, a significant percentage of their income will disappear.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Of the three scenarios only the first has even a chance of being true. The journalists that would be locked up are as critical of republitraitor pols generally as they are Trump. And if they voted against Russia getting arms, a significant percentage of their income will disappear.

On the journalists, the party would be split... and a little depressingly, it might be a toss up on the "most" part. A significant number would at least make mouth noises of concern, though, like the "Thoughts and Prayers" for the murdered victims caused by their irresponsible policies. As for the Russia money? That's actually harder to say, but was plausible given how protected dark money can be. The freezing of Russian accounts that led to a sharp drop in right-wing traffic and amplification may well have curbed that route of attraction, though. On other directions that may be relevant, there's been hints that Russia might have a fair bit of blackmail at its disposal and there's definite ideological overlap. Even with that, though, providing weapons to Russia directly likely just wouldn't happen. Providing indirectly is more plausible.

[Lplus]

The ultimate humiliation - the Great Russia accepting weapons from the US Nazi gays or whatever. Seems bit unlikely really, but there you go.

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.

Trump knows darn good and well he'd never get permission to send Russia weapons. He'd threaten to send U.S. troops to assist Russia instead.

[Aridas]

Apparently, according to Prigozhen, Wagner's taken 100% of Bakhmut (with Shoigu and Gerasimov being mostly useless). Also, Prigozhen apparently announced that Wagner forces there will be redeployed in a couple days to other global hotspots like Sudan.

Sounds almost like Wagner expects that things will get very bad if they stick around.

[gnome]

The way I think Trump could lock up journalists without all the fallout: Go with a leak scenario. A news outlet reports something embarrassing or damning, and instead of being balked by that it becomes about finding the leaker, who will quickly start being called a traitor. Then it's trying to force the news agency to give up their source, and when they won't, then jailing starts for protecting a "traitor" (technically a contempt order for refusing). Framed that way I think plenty of Republicans and voters would be completely on board.

I think this has happened before (in the sense of a reporter sitting in jail for contempt after refusing to give up a source), and I don't recall a lot of Republican outrage.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.

The "majority of Repugicans" is not the same thing as the 'majority of Repugnican politicians'. Once the elections are over that majority of Repugnicans has little if any control over what their party choices do.

And the evidence is clear, by their own actions, that those politicians will not hesitate at the most outrageous, disgusting, and heinous decisions if they think it will appeal to that right wingnut base that got them through the primaries. The memories of that same "majority of Repugnicans" are never long enough to recall such behavior when it comes time to vote again.

Or possibly they just don't care enough.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by Lplus

The ultimate humiliation - the Great Russia accepting weapons from the US Nazi gays or whatever. Seems bit unlikely really, but there you go.

The ultimate humiliation would be losing to Ukraine. Anything else pales by comparison to that.

They would simply brag about bringing the U.S. around to their P.O.V.

[zooterkin]

Whilst the initial speculation on what a future President of the USA might do was relevant, detailed discussion of that and related scenarios is not the prime topic of this thread. Please take it to a new or existing thread where it would be on topic. Thank you.

Responding to this modbox in thread will be off topic Posted By:zooterkin

[eerok]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Apparently, according to Prigozhen, Wagner's taken 100% of Bakhmut (with Shoigu and Gerasimov being mostly useless). Also, Prigozhen apparently announced that Wagner forces there will be redeployed in a couple days to other global hotspots like Sudan.

Sounds almost like Wagner expects that things will get very bad if they stick around.

Whatever Wagner has gained in Bakhmut makes only a symbolic difference. Basically they occupy just a few more gutted buildings than they did the day before, and this provides them with no military advantage. Probably they'll end up dying when they try to leave, since Ukraine is gaining control of the flanks.

[Doubt]

When you don't have numerical superiority, attacking in cities does not make sense. Defending in cities does. They are still the great equalizer when it comes to operations.

The gains on the flanks make sense since that is where Ukraine will take smaller casualties than trying to push back in the cities.

It still seems unlikely that what we are seeing now is the campaign we have all been waiting on. They don't seem to be committing the new tanks and other armor they have been receiving. I still think they will be heading south and that Tokmak is going to be important if not a primary focus in the early campaign.

If the attacks on the flanks go well and Bakmut starts to get encircled, it will be interesting to hear how bad Prigozhen screams for help as his troops either get surrounded or have to run away to avoid being trapped. Pretty sure the Russian MOD will be slow walking any effort to save Wagner mercenaries.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Doubt

If the attacks on the flanks go well and Bakmut starts to get encircled, it will be interesting to hear how bad Prigozhen screams for help as his troops either get surrounded or have to run away to avoid being trapped. Pretty sure the Russian MOD will be slow walking any effort to save Wagner mercenaries.

The announced date for Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut is apparently about 4 days from now, so Ukraine's not so likely to encircle them in that amount of time, I think. They're already close to running away.

[ohms]

Reports on Twitter this afternoon that Ukrainian-backed Russian volunteer forces have entered the Belgorod region in Western Russia and "captured" a couple of towns. It sounds like quite a small force so I doubt they will be able to hold any territory.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...04873426051072

[JoeMorgue]

"Capturing" is very loosely defined. I'd wager a guess that most "capturing" in warfare is little more then "Made it into enemy territory and stood there until the enemy realized you were there."

[eerok]

Yes, some reports suggest that Mordor is restless.

Everything around Grayvoron is engulfed in flames. Russian military and border guards are retreating (reddit.com)

Perhaps this can draw some Russian troops away from other positions. In any case it's a nice response to the Bakhmut "victory".

ETA more:

People leave Belgorod after Russian Legionnaires attack in Belgorod region (reddit.com)

Even if this isn't accurate reporting, I love to see it.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Aridas

The announced date for Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut is apparently about 4 days from now, so Ukraine's not so likely to encircle them in that amount of time, I think. They're already close to running away.

I don't think Wagner is leaving. Perogy or whatever his name is (the Wagner boss) frequently seems to announce that they're leaving unless he gets what he wants.

I'm not feeling 100% certain on that, but it feels to my wildly not expert opinion to be most likely.

[gnome]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

"Capturing" is very loosely defined. I'd wager a guess that most "capturing" in warfare is little more then "Made it into enemy territory and stood there until the enemy realized you were there."

I would agree not of significant strategic importance. I would expect some slight psychological value of it.

[eerok]

Originally Posted by gnome

I would agree not of significant strategic importance. I would expect some slight psychological value of it.

I don't know how slight it is psychologically. Russia has always prided itself on its information game, and it seems to be outplayed by Ukraine quite regularly.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by eerok

Yes, some reports suggest that Mordor is restless.

Everything around Grayvoron is engulfed in flames. Russian military and border guards are retreating (reddit.com)

Perhaps this can draw some Russian troops away from other positions. In any case it's a nice response to the Bakhmut "victory".

....and we reach the point where the Russian war in Ukraine has gone so well that Russia has now been invaded by Russians.

Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.

A few armchair generals are pointing out that this would be an excellent diversion to throw Russian troops into disarray just as Ukraine starts the big offensive. It does seem like there is some real combat going on as far as 7 km across the border, maybe one Russian helicopter shot down.

Still no signs of the real offensive, but this is still an interesting development.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by crescent

....and we reach the point where the Russian war in Ukraine has gone so well that Russia has now been invaded by Russians.

Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.

A few armchair generals are pointing out that this would be an excellent diversion to throw Russian troops into disarray just as Ukraine starts the big offensive. It does seem like there is some real combat going on as far as 7 km across the border, maybe one Russian helicopter shot down.

Still no signs of the real offensive, but this is still an interesting development.

If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!

[theprestige]

Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.

Sounds entirely plausible

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.

And perhaps a hint that it would take more than a single assassination to put an end to the struggle.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

And perhaps a hint that it would take more than a single assassination to put an end to the struggle.

I love a good full-spectrum psyop. Sending multiple messages to multiple audiences simultaneously is tight!

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!

The other thing is that it completely undermines any propaganda value Russia might have got from capturing Bakhmut.

And it will probably force Russia to start defending its borders.

[lobosrul5]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV..._fsbs_btr_82a/

Supposedly video of RVC guys in Russia who captured an FSB BTR... I have to wonder how widespread this is going to get. Picturing police/FSB/rear-guard units running the **** away at the first sign of danger. Russia likely has very little in the way of combat ready units in Russia, except for Putins own guard. They may have to pull units out of Ukraine.

If nothing else, this is ******* hilarious.

[dudalb]

Something is going on in Belgorod'Huge exploisons, reports of actual ground fighting.

[dudalb]

CNN reports the Belgorod fighting might be between Russian Factions.
If we are seeing an armed revolt against Putin, it is a big development, even if it is intially crushed.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by crescent

Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.

I haven't heard any reports anywhere of Ukraine recruiting among Moscow POWs.

However, it seems that since the beginning of the war, there have been Russians who have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, including dedicated Russian formations like the Freedom of Russia Legion, which appears to be spearheading this raid into Belgorod oblast.

It should be noted that there are a number of foreign troop formations in the Ukrainian order of battle. This includes a Belarusian formation, a Georgian formation, at least one Anglophone formation (I think).

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I haven't heard any reports anywhere of Ukraine recruiting among Moscow POWs.

However, it seems that since the beginning of the war, there have been Russians who have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, including dedicated Russian formations like the Freedom of Russia Legion, which appears to be spearheading this raid into Belgorod oblast.

It should be noted that there are a number of foreign troop formations in the Ukrainian order of battle. This includes a Belarusian formation, a Georgian formation, at least one Anglophone formation (I think).

On the topic, it may be worth noting that the Russian offensive is advancing, though! Russian separatists advancing into Russia is advancing!

A little more seriously, this is rather reminiscent of the Russian backed offensive into Ukraine years ago, so... karma? Beyond that, strategically, it feels like a great step just before a strong counteroffensive. Russian reserves and defenses are apparently rather depleted and actually responding to that Russian advance is both essential and would likely require opening holes that Ukraine can capitalize upon.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!

I think it would be political suicide. First of all, some foreign support might disappear. Then it would allow Putin to say to his country "see, they are invading us".

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I think it would be political suicide.

To whom? Zelenskiy? You think there would be a coup in Kyiv? He would lose the next election because of it?

Originally Posted by jeremyp

First of all, some foreign support might disappear.

I don't think that's a given. Ukraine has struck into Russian territory many times before. This didn't lose them support. There is nothing at all illegal about invading a bit of the country that invaded you - I think more and more in the Western coalition are learning that it is unfair and unsound to disallow Ukraine to use perfectly legal tactics. I think it depends on the soundness and feasbility of the military objective and on the conduct (i.e. don't carpet-bombs civilians ect).

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Then it would allow Putin to say to his country "see, they are invading us".

And then - what?
Dangerous escalation? Nukes?
If there was a path of escalation that is actually advantageous to the Russian war effort, it would have been taken long ago.

Russia must not only lose this war - it must lose utterly, and it has to be totally obvious to anyone at any level within Russia: It has to be obviously and utterly devestating in Putin's eyes as well as in the eyes of every peasant. If Ukraine can demonstrate that Russia is unable to prevent the taking of a Russian city like Belgorod, well, that would serve that war aim.

[Abooga]

Originally Posted by Aridas

On the topic, it may be worth noting that the Russian offensive is advancing, though! Russian separatists advancing into Russia is advancing!

A little more seriously, this is rather reminiscent of the Russian backed offensive into Ukraine years ago, so... karma? Beyond that, strategically, it feels like a great step just before a strong counteroffensive. Russian reserves and defenses are apparently rather depleted and actually responding to that Russian advance is both essential and would likely require opening holes that Ukraine can capitalize upon.

It´s like a mirror image of when Russia supposedly created or financed those separatist attacks in Donetsk a decade ago, isn´t it? This time Ukraine possibly created and financed these attacks in Belgorod, but just like Russia did before, it has plausible deniability... a really cunning move. Payback time!

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Oystein

And then - what?
Dangerous escalation? Nukes?

In yesterday's video update from Denys Davidov, he points out the incursion into Russia is really close to a nuclear weapon storage facility.

https://youtu.be/_cnnRyTjed4?t=120

I assume a facility so close to a current war zone will be empty, but of course this is hyper-competent Russia we're talking about. An attempt to capture that would raise the stakes to a level that would make me very nervous indeed.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

In yesterday's video update from Denys Davidov, he points out the incursion into Russia is really close to a nuclear weapon storage facility.

https://youtu.be/_cnnRyTjed4?t=120

I assume a facility so close to a current war zone will be empty, but of course this is hyper-competent Russia we're talking about. An attempt to capture that would raise the stakes to a level that would make me very nervous indeed.

I believe I saw video that, first off, its just storage of old inoperable junk. And secondly, that Russia is removing them. Actually I think it was one of Deny Davidov's videos from yesterday where I saw that reported.

[JoeMorgue]

Yeah but I trust Russia to effectively clear out all the radioactive material from a site pretty much like I trust a tumble dryer full of pieces of jagged volcanic rock to polish a Fabergé Egg.

[eerok]

I guess at this point we can just wait for Russia to nuke themselves.