IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 19th May 2023, 09:47 PM   #321
Gulliver Foyle
Graduate Poster
 
Gulliver Foyle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Cork baaaiii
Posts: 1,699
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The Swiss supposedly have prepared all their tunnels with self-destruct / blocking shenanigans, to force any invading army to go over mountain passes.
There's no supposedly there, that was Switzerland's defence plan towards a joint German-Italian invasion during World War 2, have the army stage delaying actions to evacuate civilians, then fall back to the central Alpine areas and blow up the passes to create a giant natural fortress in the centre of the country.
__________________
Ceterum autem censeo Factio Republicanus esse delendam
Gulliver Foyle is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 05:20 AM   #322
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,785
Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.

Although I suppose there's a non-zero chance that Trump might actually say that, the practical effects would likely be minimal, other than reducing Trump's already diminished political capital even further (but see my next post).

First, what do you imagine Zelensky's response would be? "Oh, yes, Mr. Trump, I'll call President Putin right away and sue for peace!"??

Second, even if the Republicans take the Senate and increase their majority in the House of Representatives, no bill to provide weapons to Russia would ever pass Congress, for a variety of reasons.

ETA: And Trump wouldn't say please.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz

Last edited by SpitfireIX; 20th May 2023 at 05:48 AM. Reason: ETA
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 05:42 AM   #323
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,785
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
But we were assured the GOP would oppose that!

Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 06:01 AM   #324
Gulliver Foyle
Graduate Poster
 
Gulliver Foyle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Cork baaaiii
Posts: 1,699
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.
Of the three scenarios only the first has even a chance of being true. The journalists that would be locked up are as critical of republitraitor pols generally as they are Trump. And if they voted against Russia getting arms, a significant percentage of their income will disappear.
__________________
Ceterum autem censeo Factio Republicanus esse delendam
Gulliver Foyle is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 06:22 AM   #325
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,946
Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
Of the three scenarios only the first has even a chance of being true. The journalists that would be locked up are as critical of republitraitor pols generally as they are Trump. And if they voted against Russia getting arms, a significant percentage of their income will disappear.
On the journalists, the party would be split... and a little depressingly, it might be a toss up on the "most" part. A significant number would at least make mouth noises of concern, though, like the "Thoughts and Prayers" for the murdered victims caused by their irresponsible policies. As for the Russia money? That's actually harder to say, but was plausible given how protected dark money can be. The freezing of Russian accounts that led to a sharp drop in right-wing traffic and amplification may well have curbed that route of attraction, though. On other directions that may be relevant, there's been hints that Russia might have a fair bit of blackmail at its disposal and there's definite ideological overlap. Even with that, though, providing weapons to Russia directly likely just wouldn't happen. Providing indirectly is more plausible.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 07:39 AM   #326
Lplus
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,725
The ultimate humiliation - the Great Russia accepting weapons from the US Nazi gays or whatever. Seems bit unlikely really, but there you go.
__________________
It is not possible to please all of the people all of the time. It isn't possible to please all of the people some of the time. It isn't even possible to please some of the people at all.
Lplus is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 07:50 AM   #327
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
 
Mike!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 50,202
Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
DT: "I can solve this conflict in 24 hours"
Everyone else: "There's no way"
DT - Freshly Elected: "Hello, president Zelensky? This is your friend Don. Remember me from being embarrassed before? Oh, and blah, blah, blah, Hunter Biden? Yes? Good. Please surrender to my pal Vlad, unconditionally, within the next 24 hours, or I'll start sending weapons to him, instead of you."

...

Don't rule it out.
Trump knows darn good and well he'd never get permission to send Russia weapons. He'd threaten to send U.S. troops to assist Russia instead.
__________________
"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes...
Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."
Mike! is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 11:29 AM   #328
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,946
Apparently, according to Prigozhen, Wagner's taken 100% of Bakhmut (with Shoigu and Gerasimov being mostly useless). Also, Prigozhen apparently announced that Wagner forces there will be redeployed in a couple days to other global hotspots like Sudan.

Sounds almost like Wagner expects that things will get very bad if they stick around.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 12:38 PM   #329
gnome
Penultimate Amazing
 
gnome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 13,764
The way I think Trump could lock up journalists without all the fallout: Go with a leak scenario. A news outlet reports something embarrassing or damning, and instead of being balked by that it becomes about finding the leaker, who will quickly start being called a traitor. Then it's trying to force the news agency to give up their source, and when they won't, then jailing starts for protecting a "traitor" (technically a contempt order for refusing). Framed that way I think plenty of Republicans and voters would be completely on board.

I think this has happened before (in the sense of a reporter sitting in jail for contempt after refusing to give up a source), and I don't recall a lot of Republican outrage.
__________________

gnome is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 04:39 PM   #330
quadraginta
Becoming Beth
 
quadraginta's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility (USA, sort of)
Posts: 26,869
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Much as a lot of people here like to portray the vast majority of Republicans as enthralled by (or terrified of) Trump, the fact is that most would not support a Trump policy that would have worse consequences than their losing the next election. For example, Trump's attempting to use nuclear weapons without provocation or ordering the FBI to start arresting journalists who criticized him would be opposed by most Republicans. Attempting to give weapons to Russia falls into that category. I suspect that if that were to actually happen, Trump's VP and cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, in order to head off calls for Trump's impeachment.

The "majority of Repugicans" is not the same thing as the 'majority of Repugnican politicians'. Once the elections are over that majority of Repugnicans has little if any control over what their party choices do.

And the evidence is clear, by their own actions, that those politicians will not hesitate at the most outrageous, disgusting, and heinous decisions if they think it will appeal to that right wingnut base that got them through the primaries. The memories of that same "majority of Repugnicans" are never long enough to recall such behavior when it comes time to vote again.

Or possibly they just don't care enough.
__________________
"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."

"Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation."
quadraginta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2023, 04:41 PM   #331
quadraginta
Becoming Beth
 
quadraginta's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility (USA, sort of)
Posts: 26,869
Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
The ultimate humiliation - the Great Russia accepting weapons from the US Nazi gays or whatever. Seems bit unlikely really, but there you go.

The ultimate humiliation would be losing to Ukraine. Anything else pales by comparison to that.

They would simply brag about bringing the U.S. around to their P.O.V.
__________________
"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."

"Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation."
quadraginta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2023, 12:35 AM   #332
zooterkin
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator
 
zooterkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 55,834
Mod WarningWhilst the initial speculation on what a future President of the USA might do was relevant, detailed discussion of that and related scenarios is not the prime topic of this thread. Please take it to a new or existing thread where it would be on topic.

Thank you.
Responding to this modbox in thread will be off topic Posted By:zooterkin
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell
Zooterkin is correct Darat
Nerd! Hokulele
Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
Ezekiel 23:20
zooterkin is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2023, 08:45 AM   #333
eerok
Quixoticist
 
eerok's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,441
Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Apparently, according to Prigozhen, Wagner's taken 100% of Bakhmut (with Shoigu and Gerasimov being mostly useless). Also, Prigozhen apparently announced that Wagner forces there will be redeployed in a couple days to other global hotspots like Sudan.

Sounds almost like Wagner expects that things will get very bad if they stick around.
Whatever Wagner has gained in Bakhmut makes only a symbolic difference. Basically they occupy just a few more gutted buildings than they did the day before, and this provides them with no military advantage. Probably they'll end up dying when they try to leave, since Ukraine is gaining control of the flanks.
__________________
"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde
eerok is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2023, 10:35 AM   #334
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,841
When you don't have numerical superiority, attacking in cities does not make sense. Defending in cities does. They are still the great equalizer when it comes to operations.

The gains on the flanks make sense since that is where Ukraine will take smaller casualties than trying to push back in the cities.

It still seems unlikely that what we are seeing now is the campaign we have all been waiting on. They don't seem to be committing the new tanks and other armor they have been receiving. I still think they will be heading south and that Tokmak is going to be important if not a primary focus in the early campaign.

If the attacks on the flanks go well and Bakmut starts to get encircled, it will be interesting to hear how bad Prigozhen screams for help as his troops either get surrounded or have to run away to avoid being trapped. Pretty sure the Russian MOD will be slow walking any effort to save Wagner mercenaries.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2023, 11:30 AM   #335
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,946
Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
If the attacks on the flanks go well and Bakmut starts to get encircled, it will be interesting to hear how bad Prigozhen screams for help as his troops either get surrounded or have to run away to avoid being trapped. Pretty sure the Russian MOD will be slow walking any effort to save Wagner mercenaries.
The announced date for Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut is apparently about 4 days from now, so Ukraine's not so likely to encircle them in that amount of time, I think. They're already close to running away.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 06:10 AM   #336
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,523
Reports on Twitter this afternoon that Ukrainian-backed Russian volunteer forces have entered the Belgorod region in Western Russia and "captured" a couple of towns. It sounds like quite a small force so I doubt they will be able to hold any territory.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...04873426051072
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 06:21 AM   #337
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 44,114
"Capturing" is very loosely defined. I'd wager a guess that most "capturing" in warfare is little more then "Made it into enemy territory and stood there until the enemy realized you were there."
__________________
"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong.
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 07:27 AM   #338
eerok
Quixoticist
 
eerok's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,441
Yes, some reports suggest that Mordor is restless.

Everything around Grayvoron is engulfed in flames. Russian military and border guards are retreating (reddit.com)

Perhaps this can draw some Russian troops away from other positions. In any case it's a nice response to the Bakhmut "victory".

ETA more:

People leave Belgorod after Russian Legionnaires attack in Belgorod region (reddit.com)

Even if this isn't accurate reporting, I love to see it.
__________________
"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde

Last edited by eerok; 22nd May 2023 at 07:44 AM.
eerok is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 07:43 AM   #339
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,388
Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
The announced date for Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut is apparently about 4 days from now, so Ukraine's not so likely to encircle them in that amount of time, I think. They're already close to running away.
I don't think Wagner is leaving. Perogy or whatever his name is (the Wagner boss) frequently seems to announce that they're leaving unless he gets what he wants.

I'm not feeling 100% certain on that, but it feels to my wildly not expert opinion to be most likely.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 07:44 AM   #340
gnome
Penultimate Amazing
 
gnome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 13,764
Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"Capturing" is very loosely defined. I'd wager a guess that most "capturing" in warfare is little more then "Made it into enemy territory and stood there until the enemy realized you were there."
I would agree not of significant strategic importance. I would expect some slight psychological value of it.
__________________

gnome is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 07:48 AM   #341
eerok
Quixoticist
 
eerok's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,441
Originally Posted by gnome View Post
I would agree not of significant strategic importance. I would expect some slight psychological value of it.
I don't know how slight it is psychologically. Russia has always prided itself on its information game, and it seems to be outplayed by Ukraine quite regularly.
__________________
"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde
eerok is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 07:51 AM   #342
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,388
Originally Posted by eerok View Post
Yes, some reports suggest that Mordor is restless.

Everything around Grayvoron is engulfed in flames. Russian military and border guards are retreating (reddit.com)

Perhaps this can draw some Russian troops away from other positions. In any case it's a nice response to the Bakhmut "victory".
....and we reach the point where the Russian war in Ukraine has gone so well that Russia has now been invaded by Russians.

Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.

A few armchair generals are pointing out that this would be an excellent diversion to throw Russian troops into disarray just as Ukraine starts the big offensive. It does seem like there is some real combat going on as far as 7 km across the border, maybe one Russian helicopter shot down.

Still no signs of the real offensive, but this is still an interesting development.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 08:03 AM   #343
lobosrul5
Illuminator
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 4,739
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
....and we reach the point where the Russian war in Ukraine has gone so well that Russia has now been invaded by Russians.

Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.

A few armchair generals are pointing out that this would be an excellent diversion to throw Russian troops into disarray just as Ukraine starts the big offensive. It does seem like there is some real combat going on as far as 7 km across the border, maybe one Russian helicopter shot down.

Still no signs of the real offensive, but this is still an interesting development.
If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!

Last edited by lobosrul5; 22nd May 2023 at 08:04 AM.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 08:45 AM   #344
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 64,327
Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 08:51 AM   #345
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 30,066
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.
Sounds entirely plausible
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 09:15 AM   #346
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 66,035
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Am I the only one who thinks it's interesting that Ukraine is doing all this exciting stuff while Zelensky is out of the country?

Zelensky departs for G7 talks.
- Ukraine completes its withdrawal from Bakhmut city center.
- Ukraine increases tempo of outflanking operations against Moscow positions around Bakhmut.
- Now this FRL incursion into Belgorod.

My hypothesis is that all of these things must have been agreed on by the Ukrainian high command before Zelensky left the country. And that these things were organized to happen while he was out of the country. That this is in some way a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to conduct diplomatic and military operations at the same time, and that the Ukrainian general staff have the full confidence of their President.
And perhaps a hint that it would take more than a single assassination to put an end to the struggle.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 09:22 AM   #347
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 64,327
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
And perhaps a hint that it would take more than a single assassination to put an end to the struggle.
I love a good full-spectrum psyop. Sending multiple messages to multiple audiences simultaneously is tight!
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 09:23 AM   #348
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 30,066
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!
The other thing is that it completely undermines any propaganda value Russia might have got from capturing Bakhmut.

And it will probably force Russia to start defending its borders.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 10:44 AM   #349
lobosrul5
Illuminator
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 4,739
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV..._fsbs_btr_82a/

Supposedly video of RVC guys in Russia who captured an FSB BTR... I have to wonder how widespread this is going to get. Picturing police/FSB/rear-guard units running the **** away at the first sign of danger. Russia likely has very little in the way of combat ready units in Russia, except for Putins own guard. They may have to pull units out of Ukraine.

If nothing else, this is ******* hilarious.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 01:42 PM   #350
dudalb
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 58,604
Something is going on in Belgorod'Huge exploisons, reports of actual ground fighting.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 02:23 PM   #351
dudalb
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 58,604
CNN reports the Belgorod fighting might be between Russian Factions.
If we are seeing an armed revolt against Putin, it is a big development, even if it is intially crushed.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 03:15 PM   #352
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 64,327
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Presumably some of those first entered Ukraine as members of the regular Russian military. They got captured and (voluntarily) switched sides.
I haven't heard any reports anywhere of Ukraine recruiting among Moscow POWs.

However, it seems that since the beginning of the war, there have been Russians who have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, including dedicated Russian formations like the Freedom of Russia Legion, which appears to be spearheading this raid into Belgorod oblast.

It should be noted that there are a number of foreign troop formations in the Ukrainian order of battle. This includes a Belarusian formation, a Georgian formation, at least one Anglophone formation (I think).
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2023, 10:11 PM   #353
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,946
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I haven't heard any reports anywhere of Ukraine recruiting among Moscow POWs.

However, it seems that since the beginning of the war, there have been Russians who have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, including dedicated Russian formations like the Freedom of Russia Legion, which appears to be spearheading this raid into Belgorod oblast.

It should be noted that there are a number of foreign troop formations in the Ukrainian order of battle. This includes a Belarusian formation, a Georgian formation, at least one Anglophone formation (I think).
On the topic, it may be worth noting that the Russian offensive is advancing, though! Russian separatists advancing into Russia is advancing!

A little more seriously, this is rather reminiscent of the Russian backed offensive into Ukraine years ago, so... karma? Beyond that, strategically, it feels like a great step just before a strong counteroffensive. Russian reserves and defenses are apparently rather depleted and actually responding to that Russian advance is both essential and would likely require opening holes that Ukraine can capitalize upon.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 02:40 AM   #354
jeremyp
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha
Posts: 2,801
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
If I was Ukraine I'd be following this up with real Ukrainian troops. Take Belgorod, dig in. If Russia wants to take it back, make them destroy their own city. But that's just me. Hearing reports that theirs just basically no Russian defenses in the area. The absolute ******* arrogance of Russia, to not even defend the borders you have with a country you are at war with!
I think it would be political suicide. First of all, some foreign support might disappear. Then it would allow Putin to say to his country "see, they are invading us".
jeremyp is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 03:38 AM   #355
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,469
Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
I think it would be political suicide.
To whom? Zelenskiy? You think there would be a coup in Kyiv? He would lose the next election because of it?

Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
First of all, some foreign support might disappear.
I don't think that's a given. Ukraine has struck into Russian territory many times before. This didn't lose them support. There is nothing at all illegal about invading a bit of the country that invaded you - I think more and more in the Western coalition are learning that it is unfair and unsound to disallow Ukraine to use perfectly legal tactics. I think it depends on the soundness and feasbility of the military objective and on the conduct (i.e. don't carpet-bombs civilians ect).

Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Then it would allow Putin to say to his country "see, they are invading us".
And then - what?
Dangerous escalation? Nukes?
If there was a path of escalation that is actually advantageous to the Russian war effort, it would have been taken long ago.

Russia must not only lose this war - it must lose utterly, and it has to be totally obvious to anyone at any level within Russia: It has to be obviously and utterly devestating in Putin's eyes as well as in the eyes of every peasant. If Ukraine can demonstrate that Russia is unable to prevent the taking of a Russian city like Belgorod, well, that would serve that war aim.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 04:01 AM   #356
Abooga
Muse
 
Abooga's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 934
Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
On the topic, it may be worth noting that the Russian offensive is advancing, though! Russian separatists advancing into Russia is advancing!

A little more seriously, this is rather reminiscent of the Russian backed offensive into Ukraine years ago, so... karma? Beyond that, strategically, it feels like a great step just before a strong counteroffensive. Russian reserves and defenses are apparently rather depleted and actually responding to that Russian advance is both essential and would likely require opening holes that Ukraine can capitalize upon.
It´s like a mirror image of when Russia supposedly created or financed those separatist attacks in Donetsk a decade ago, isn´t it? This time Ukraine possibly created and financed these attacks in Belgorod, but just like Russia did before, it has plausible deniability... a really cunning move. Payback time!
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 06:26 AM   #357
Jack by the hedge
Safely Ignored
 
Jack by the hedge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 14,703
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post

And then - what?
Dangerous escalation? Nukes?
In yesterday's video update from Denys Davidov, he points out the incursion into Russia is really close to a nuclear weapon storage facility.

https://youtu.be/_cnnRyTjed4?t=120

I assume a facility so close to a current war zone will be empty, but of course this is hyper-competent Russia we're talking about. An attempt to capture that would raise the stakes to a level that would make me very nervous indeed.
Jack by the hedge is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 07:26 AM   #358
lobosrul5
Illuminator
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 4,739
Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
In yesterday's video update from Denys Davidov, he points out the incursion into Russia is really close to a nuclear weapon storage facility.

https://youtu.be/_cnnRyTjed4?t=120

I assume a facility so close to a current war zone will be empty, but of course this is hyper-competent Russia we're talking about. An attempt to capture that would raise the stakes to a level that would make me very nervous indeed.
I believe I saw video that, first off, its just storage of old inoperable junk. And secondly, that Russia is removing them. Actually I think it was one of Deny Davidov's videos from yesterday where I saw that reported.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 07:48 AM   #359
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 44,114
Yeah but I trust Russia to effectively clear out all the radioactive material from a site pretty much like I trust a tumble dryer full of pieces of jagged volcanic rock to polish a Fabergé Egg.
__________________
"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong.
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2023, 07:56 AM   #360
eerok
Quixoticist
 
eerok's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,441
I guess at this point we can just wait for Russia to nuke themselves.
__________________
"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde
eerok is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:08 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.