Merged: Who will win the Republican nomination?/ Republikan Klown Kar, 2024

[Orphia Nay]

"Beyond Trump [and DeSantis], those already in the GOP field include former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks."

https://apnews.com/article/0495d5673...179d01f1f7c45e

(Thought this deserved its own thread.)

[Segnosaur]

Likely Stubby McBonespurs will win the nomination.

I suspect it will be a rerun of the 2016 primaries... with many contenders, but with Trump polling just high enough in the early primaries to force out his competitors.

His only main competitor is Meatball Ron, but I think Trump has a strong enough hold on the MAGAchud that pudding fingers won't be able to win. (The only question is does he get forced out early like Jeb Bush was in 2016... popular with the donors but ultimately goes nowhere) or is he one of the people that lasts until the end.

None of the other candidates are high-enough profile, and anyone who might seriously challenge trump probably won't bother because even if they secure the nomination, Trump will probably sabotage their presidential campaign.

[angrysoba]

Trump will easily win.

DeSantis is doing his best to get publicity and in another election cycle maybe it would work. Being divisive is no longer a bad thing politically, or at least not if you are a GOP candidate. In fact it is almost certainly a plus. But Trump is the original and best when it comes to **** talking. Trump can trash DeSantis all he wants and it would only gain him support. DeSantis is trying to avoid that because he knows he can’t gore the scared elephant of the MAGAchuds. So he is fighting with one arm tied behind his back. He’s toast.

[Norman Alexander]

Interestingly, I would not be significantly surprised if one of the also-rans gets the nod. The Trump/DeSantis battle is like two mangy, stinky alley-cats fighting in a sack. Maybe one is most likely to win, but the main point is these liabilities are both in a sack! The GOP Machine may decide to just quietly leave them in there to fight it out, and move on without either of them. Then it won't matter which of them wins. Neither will take vote-share from the GOP.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander

Interestingly, I would not be significantly surprised if one of the also-rans gets the nod. The Trump/DeSantis battle is like two mangy, stinky alley-cats fighting in a sack. Maybe one is most likely to win, but the main point is these liabilities are both in a sack! The GOP Machine may decide to just quietly leave them in there to fight it out, and move on without either of them. Then it won't matter which of them wins. Neither will take vote-share from the GOP.

Yeah, but we are talking about the mangy stinky alleycat (in a sack) party. Get rid of the two most obvious exemplars of the party values and you are going to alienate the sizable mangy stinky alleycat in a sack vote.

[Norman Alexander]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Yeah, but we are talking about the mangy stinky alleycat (in a sack) party. Get rid of the two most obvious exemplars of the party values and you are going to alienate the sizable mangy stinky alleycat in a sack vote.

It's leaking away even as these two idiots slash at each other. The blowback towards their followers appears to be on the rise, and it is better organised besides.

[shemp]

Probably Trump, but in any case it's sure to be some sack of dog ****.

[Donal]

Did Chris Sununu officially declare yet?

[W.D.Clinger]

Nathaniel Rakich and his colleagues at FiveThirtyEIght have just published the transcript of a politics chat devoted to the question asked by this thread.

[TurkeysGhost]

Only Trump's death will stop him from winning this primary, and even in that case he's still got a decent chance.

[Trebuchet]

10:1 odds that Trump will win the nomination. Some, like Haley and Scott, are basically running for Veep.
But if Trump by some miracle doesn't win the nomination, he won't stop running for President or running down the Republican candidate, resulting in a solid Biden victory. That's my dream scenario.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Only Trump's death will stop him from winning this primary, and even in that case he's still got a decent chance.

Probably more a chance as there is less chance of him shooting himself in the foot.

[Donal]

White Moderates: I'm glad he finally stopped with all the mean tweeting. Now, he looks like he'll pivot to being presidential.

[sackett]

It won't matter to the Magaturds what happens with Trompph. He could be in prison and they'd still regard him as their president. Yes, actually and literally, president no matter what.

Remember The King Over the Water, when Jacobites passed their glasses over a cup of water when toasting the king, to refer, of course, to THEIR king, the Stuart pretender? Now imagine saloons across America setting up iron grates on the tables, so that redcapped patriots can reach their bottled beers through them to toast

OUR PRESIDENT BEHIND THE BARS!

Okay, maybe you can't quite imagine that. I don't blame you. But just remember that I drew the picture first.

[Donal]

Ya, but I'm getting table sized jail bars to market first.

[shemp]

Originally Posted by Donal

Did Chris Sununu officially declare yet?

I doubt he will. I think he's more likely to run for re-election in 2024 (virtually certain he'll win), then challenge Jeanne Shaheen for her U.S. Senate seat in 2026.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Donal

White Moderates stupid Republicans: I'm glad he finally stopped with all the mean tweeting. Now, he looks like he'll pivot to being presidential.

Fixed that for you.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by sackett

It won't matter to the Magaturds what happens with Trompph. He could be in prison and they'd still regard him as their president. Yes, actually and literally, president no matter what.

Remember The King Over the Water, when Jacobites passed their glasses over a cup of water when toasting the king, to refer, of course, to THEIR king, the Stuart pretender? Now imagine saloons across America setting up iron grates on the tables, so that redcapped patriots can reach their bottled beers through them to toast

OUR PRESIDENT BEHIND THE BARS!

Okay, maybe you can't quite imagine that. I don't blame you. But just remember that I drew the picture first.

Love the analogy. Well done.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by W.D.Clinger

Nathaniel Rakich and his colleagues at FiveThirtyEIght have just published the transcript of a politics chat devoted to the question asked by this thread.

Is there a tl;dr?

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Darat

Probably more a chance as there is less chance of him shooting himself in the foot.

I don’t even know if he can shoot himself in the foot with GOP supporters. The whole “pudding fingers” campaign video was about DeSantis gutting welfare programmes. Usually GOP talk a big game of small government, but if Trump is for social security then so are they!

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Darat

Probably more a chance as there is less chance of him shooting himself in the foot.

He should go hunting with Dick Cheney.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

He should go hunting with Dick Cheney.

That’s a deep cut!

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

He should go hunting with Dick Cheney.

Don't be ridiculous, Trump would never pursue an outdoor activity that doesn't permit the use of a golf cart.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Don't be ridiculous, Trump would never pursue an outdoor activity that doesn't permit the use of a golf cart.

Miss World Contestants in swimsuits, Donald Trump in a golf cart, Dick Cheney in the bushes with a shotgun, Benny Hill theme tune. And action!

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

10:1 odds that Trump will win the nomination.

I'm guessing you mean 1:10, rather than 10:1.

Either way, you're well off from actual betting odds, where he's at 1:2 and De Santis is at 3:1.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...ominee-5565317

[shemp]

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Don't be ridiculous, Trump would never pursue an outdoor activity that doesn't permit the use of a golf cart.

Are you kidding? Last time out he shot 18 birdies!

[TragicMonkey]

Originally Posted by shemp

Are you kidding? Last time out he shot 18 birdies!

And the bystanders told him "Sir," they said, "Sir, you are the most amazing, biggest president ever" and then ketchup rained from the sky and they all held aloft their steaks to catch it, it was great, the greatest, the biggest, big, great, amazing, man, television, light, greatest, Sir, great biggest big big

[Donal]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

That’s a deep cut!

just a flesh wound

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by shemp

Are you kidding? Last time out he shot 18 birdies!

18 birdies, what a ******* amateur!

http://www.espn.com/espn/page2/index/_/id/7369649

(wow thats practically a time capsule... Gregg Easterbrooks column is there on the right).

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

18 birdies, what a ******* amateur!

http://www.espn.com/espn/page2/index/_/id/7369649

(wow thats practically a time capsule... Gregg Easterbrooks column is there on the right).

No wonder Trump admires him so!

[Frank Newgent]

Chris Christie.

[Brainster]

Glenn Youngkin? IMHO he has largely engaged in the "right" cultural issues. DeSantis misread the mood of the country with the 6-week abortion ban; Youngkin inherited an effective 3rd trimester ban which is defensible as being in line with most of Europe.

Yes, Trump is the most likely candidate; nobody ever said the GOP wasn't cussed.

[Trebuchet]

It's only the first of June, 2023; and there are already a multiplicity of candidates? Can we match the craziness of 2015/16?

Probably not, except for the craziness of the likely nominee.

Anyhow, best I (or USA Today) can tell, we've already got these candidates:
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Larry Elder (who?)
Nikki Haley
Asa Hutchinson
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tim Scott
Chris Christie (probably)
Mike Pence (probably)

Trump is the probable nominee. If not, he'll continue running against the actual nominee, ensuring a Biden victory, which Trump will blame on the Republican nominee.
Otherwise:
DeSantis is the only realistic option for today's Christo-fascist Republican party. Since he'd be both more evil and more competent than Trump, very scary to me.
Larry Elder is unknown and black. No chance.
Nikki Haley is female and non-white. Though she does her best to look white. Possible Veep selection.
Asa Hutchinson is an unknown nonentity. That works for Dems (think Carter and Clinton) but not R's.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Unknown, funny name, probably a terrorist.
Tim Scott: Black. Competent. Not ever going to be nominated by the R's.
Fat Chris Christie: Did every thing he could to secure Trump's VP nomination four years ago, including carrying Trump's luggage. Running for Veep again.
Mike Pence: Small change. No Democrat and 95% of Republicans would never vote for him.

Your thoughts?

[Armitage72]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Vivek Ramaswamy: Unknown, funny name, probably a terrorist.

This is the guy who wants to raise the voting age to 25 unless you join the military or enter government service.
Translation: Young people are more likely to vote Democrat. How can we prevent them from voting?

[ToddH]

Originally Posted by Armitage72

This is the guy who wants to raise the voting age to 25 unless you join the military or enter government service.
Translation: Young people are more likely to vote Democrat. How can we prevent them from voting?

Service guarantees citizenship. Would you like to know more?

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by ToddH

Service guarantees citizenship. Would you like to know more?

Not necessarily. There are other requirements including:

Quote:

"Demonstrate that if separated from service, you were separated under honorable conditions;
Be a lawful permanent resident at the time of your naturalization interview;
Meet certain residence and physical presence requirements;
Demonstrate the ability to read, write and speak English, unless qualified for a waiver or exception;
Demonstrate knowledge of U.S. history and government, unless excepted;
Demonstrate good moral character for at least five years before filing your N-400 through the day you naturalize; and
Demonstrate an attachment to the principles of the U.S. Constitution and be well disposed to the good order and happiness of the United States during all relevant periods under the law, unless waived."

[Armitage72]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Not necessarily. There are other requirements including:

That was a quote from "Starship Troopers", in which military or government service was required to gain the full rights of citizenship. I was tempted to include it in my post.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Armitage72

That was a quote from "Starship Troopers", in which military or government service was required to gain the full rights of citizenship. I was tempted to include it in my post.

Ah. I never saw "Starship Troopers". I'm not a sci-fi fan.

[Armitage72]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Ah. I never saw "Starship Troopers". I'm not a sci-fi fan.

The quote was in the novel; I don't think it was in the movie. The concept was in the movie though. The movie was more of a tongue-in-cheek satire of the fascism and authoritarianism that were played straight in the original novel.

[kookbreaker]

Its been a meme for decades now.