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Old 22nd March 2019, 05:55 AM   #401
KDLarsen
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Robert Peston believes the UK will be crashing out with no deal:
Quote:
To be clear, though, the EU’s leaders can’t and won’t say no if we insist on fighting them. But they would hate it and would say yes with the heaviest of hearts.

What matters more than anything therefore is that in the three weeks of breathing space EU leaders have given us - JUST THREE WEEKS - UK party leaders, ministers, senior politicians, MPs have to do what they have singularly failed to in the more than 1000 days since Brexit, which is to co-operate as far as they can to find an outcome that is in the national interest, take proper responsibility for it, and lay to one side narrow party considerations.

If they don’t, won’t or can’t, we will be leaving without a deal on 12 April. And truthfully, based on what you might call behavioural evidence on the current generation of MPs, I am retaining my prediction that we will be leaving without a deal, probably in 21 days.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-22/...brexit-poison/
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:00 AM   #402
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
A) it indicates it could be different? How? A third of the people that voted for a position went online. How is that an indicator.
One sixth as many people as voted in an annonymous poll decided to petition the government, asking them to reverse course on their flagship policy. In the process they made their names known to the government. For each that has done so there may be ten or more who do not wish their names to be revealed in this manner.
Plus there is no proof for anyone of these people to have voted against the motion in the first place. There may be indications and speculation, but no proof. The number of people that put their names on the petition already exceeds the margin between the two groups almost threefold. Given the gravity of the subject they should not be disenfrenchised so calluosly.

Quote:
B) if it needs another direct vote when the will changes, that means to he more wishy washy you are, the more votes you get. That seems undemocratic to vary the votes like that.
Maybe, but there are ways to get around that. The usual method is to demand certain quorum for major constitutional changes: for Brexit to happen at least 70% of the electorate must vote in the referendum and at least 60% of the votes cast must be in favor.

Easy peasy. Incompetence is not an excuse for authoritarianism.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:02 AM   #403
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I think the EU has long given off signs that they're sick to death of the entire thing and want us to **** or get off the pot. They've also been saying for a while now that May's deal is it and that there will be no further negotiations for a deal.
True, but there is a caveat: May's deal is a withdrawal agreement. Most of the criticism levied against it is due to the things that will become relevant from 2021 onward. If the eventual trading agreement is reached in extra time, EU might be persuaded to say yes.

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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:09 AM   #404
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Presumably the 'Men in grey suits' that did Thatcher in. A quiet tap on the shoulder, a few words about rebels potentially supporting a motion of no confidence, and out she goes.

They won’t want her to go yet, though. They need her to stay until after Brexit so she can take all the blame away with her.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:15 AM   #405
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
They won’t want her to go yet, though. They need her to stay until after Brexit so she can take all the blame away with her.
Fair point.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:21 AM   #406
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
For each that has done so there may be ten or more who do not wish their names to be revealed in this manner.
Plus there is no proof for anyone of these people to have voted against the motion in the first place.
Those all seem like questions that need to be answered before you can place any weight on a petition.

If someone believes decisions should be based on evidence, what is the evidence that this petition result is an indicator that the mood nay have changed? What is the data on petitions?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:24 AM   #407
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The TL/DW version is that in the latest meeting Theresa May was asked "what about the pain" to the UK public in the case of a no deal exit, and her reply was "the people voted for pain".
There really are people who think that any amount of economic pain would be worth it if it meant no longer having to work with with those nasty foreigners we fought against in WW2. I know a couple.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:27 AM   #408
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
There really are people who think that any amount of economic pain would be worth it if it meant no longer having to work with with those nasty foreigners we fought against in WW2. I know a couple.
So they want out of NATO, too, I presume.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:31 AM   #409
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
So they want out of NATO, too, I presume.
I don't think they've thought it through that far. Or indeed at all.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:05 AM   #410
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https://twitter.com/jonathancoe/stat...979017217?s=20

Quote:
Another stupid BBC vox pop with one of those elderly Brexit voters, completely detached from reality, whose only argument is 'Why can't they just get on with it?' Oh wait, it was the Prime Minister ...
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:06 AM   #411
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So your boss puts you on a zero-hours contract. You find yourself kicking your heels at home. You work very few hours so you go down to the Benefits office. They put you on Universal Credit. Five weeks later you have a few coins in your pocket for food, the bills are mounting up, interest is accruing on your credit card at an alarming rate because of you can only make 'minumum payment' you are still waiting for your Univefrsal Credit benefit to come through.

In the meantime you discover your boss has taken on a Romanian worker paying him a fraction of what you were being paid, as in Romania, average monthly wage is £200, so he is ecstatic to be now earning £600 pcm.
Either your Schrödinger's Romanian is only working 18½ hours per week, or he's being paid less than minimum wage. How much of a "fraction" of the previous employee's wage does this represent? Said Schrödinger's Romanian is also going to have higher living costs in the UK, so £600 here is not going to be that much better than £200 in Romania.

Of course, I only know two Romanians living in the UK. One is a GP, and the other is an asbestos contamination specialist, neither of which are minimum wage jobs.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:06 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
But the correct course of action at this point is not to exit the EU a week from now. Article 50 should be revoked until the people who want to leave can come up with a credible plan for it to happen.

Talk of General Elections, 2nd votes, new deals, or any of that nonsense has to saved until after the immediate threat is halted. And we can't keep having ticking time bombs and artificial deadlines.

Revoke it now.
The sad truth is that the leaders of both the largest parties want a Brexit. For sure neither prefers a no-deal Brexit but both prefers no-deal to no-Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn is labouring under the delusion that he will be swept to power and will be able to negotiate a workers' utopia Brexit, even from the jaws of a no-deal.

The two largest parties, accounting for the vast majority of MPs, refuse to revoke Brexit. One because her party is absolutely gagging for Brexit, the other because he's ideologically wedded to it (against the wishes of his members and supporters).
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:12 AM   #413
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For people who want to see how the petition is doing, there is a Twitch stream here so that people can see the votes (3.2 million) without going back to the site and crashing it.

https://www.twitch.tv/jcampbell05?fb...iwoH_G1l9A3yWk
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:44 AM   #414
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
So they want out of NATO, too, I presume.

And the ECHR. Or at least they would if they realised it wasn’t part of the EU.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:53 AM   #415
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The sad truth is that the leaders of both the largest parties want a Brexit. For sure neither prefers a no-deal Brexit but both prefers no-deal to no-Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn is labouring under the delusion that he will be swept to power and will be able to negotiate a workers' utopia Brexit, even from the jaws of a no-deal.

The two largest parties, accounting for the vast majority of MPs, refuse to revoke Brexit. One because her party is absolutely gagging for Brexit, the other because he's ideologically wedded to it (against the wishes of his members and supporters).
Indeed. There are just enough Brexiteer nutjobs around that they won't let go of their sordid little wet dream for their own personal reasons. And there really isn't a credible prominent Remain voice countering them.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 07:54 AM   #416
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
And the ECHR. Or at least they would if they realised it wasn’t part of the EU.
IIRC Theresa May is one of those who wants to be free of the ECHR - freedom is being able to deny people basic human rights...
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Old 22nd March 2019, 08:13 AM   #417
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IIRC Theresa May is one of those who wants to be free of the ECHR - freedom is being able to deny people basic human rights...
Which is one of the reasons that her participation in the referendum was so quiet. She believed Cameron would win the referendum so she couldn't politically go against him but she was so weak in her support of remain she could say her heart was never in it to the leavers when the time came to court them. And her blatant political maneuvering paid off, she got what she wanted.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 09:52 AM   #418
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Against all expectations it has become a national cause célèbre with numbers and support swelling exponentially. It's like the Jarrow March all over again except better organised and with far greater numbers.

Yesterday the number of marchers grew to over 3 million demonstrating that Brexit, and especially a no deal Brexit has far more support than Remain which has managed only to get a paltry 2 million or so signatures on an online petition.

The enthusiasm of the support and the sheer numbers involved means that Nigel Farage's march is the single largest public movement the country has ever known.

It's expected that the numbers will grow to well over 10 million by the time that the march reaches the capital demonstrating once and for all the enthusiasm that the UK population have for Brexit and for their natural leader, Nigel Farage.

The dripping sarcasm got on my sofa! But I laughed anyway.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 10:15 AM   #419
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
There really are people who think that any amount of economic pain would be worth it if it meant no longer having to work with with those nasty foreigners we fought against in WW2. I know a couple.
Oh, you are so right! And the number of them who are given, in my strongly held opinion, far too much air time....... well,, the radio gets turned off all the time nowadays.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 11:59 AM   #420
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Relax, everyone.

Uri Geller is going to stop Brexit with the power of his mind.

https://twitter.com/JewishTelegraph/...45636216152065
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Old 22nd March 2019, 12:09 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by ctamblyn View Post
Relax, everyone.

Uri Geller is going to stop Brexit with the power of his mind.

https://twitter.com/JewishTelegraph/...45636216152065
we're ******
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Old 22nd March 2019, 01:02 PM   #422
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Who would have guessed that the emergency planning was also a bit of a mess?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

Quote:
This high tempo is likely to be necessary for months, the document says.


One source with knowledge of Operation Yellowhammer made clear that while planning had stepped up, the overall picture remained chaotic and “rudderless”.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 01:40 PM   #423
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Anybody know what's going on? My mind has shut down, Brexit-wise; blown a fuse maybe. Any advice much appreciated.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 01:56 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Anybody know what's going on? My mind has shut down, Brexit-wise; blown a fuse maybe. Any advice much appreciated.
Are you applying for the Cabinet, then?

You'd need to work on your self-awareness, as you have some.
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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Old 22nd March 2019, 01:59 PM   #425
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Anybody know what's going on? My mind has shut down, Brexit-wise; blown a fuse maybe. Any advice much appreciated.
The answer is no*.




*as long as you are limiting yourself to the currently alive population of the world
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:01 PM   #426
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Anybody know what's going on? My mind has shut down, Brexit-wise; blown a fuse maybe. Any advice much appreciated.
If MPs agree to May's deal, we leave later. If they do not, they have until sooner to decide "no deal" or cancel (I don't really understand why it is that way round, you would think agreeing to May's deal would mean leaving sooner and still not sure what to do would get more time).

So the three options that have been on the table for months now are still all on the table.

In effect there is complete deadlock with no sign of a solution.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:27 PM   #427
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Indeed, ideological and xenophobic fantasies.
Oh come on. It should be blindingly obvious that a worker from - say - Romania will be much better off coming to work in the UK than a UK worker finding work in Romania.

(We are not talking about people working for multinationals [banks, auditors, etc] being relocated to Europe on the same or better salary, before anyone throws in that red herring.)
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:36 PM   #428
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If MPs agree to May's deal, we leave later. If they do not, they have until sooner to decide "no deal" or cancel (I don't really understand why it is that way round, you would think agreeing to May's deal would mean leaving sooner and still not sure what to do would get more time).

So the three options that have been on the table for months now are still all on the table.

In effect there is complete deadlock with no sign of a solution.
Which means that the default, no deal on 29 March, applies..
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:46 PM   #429
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Which means that the default, no deal on 29 March, applies..
I think 12 April is the new 29 March
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:50 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Which means that the default, no deal on 29 March, applies..
Apparently not.

According to the legal types I follow on Twitter, the deadline has now been formally extended in accordance with the requirements of Paragraph 3 of Article 50. The EU27 unanimously agreed, as did the UK PM, so April 12th at the earliest now. This has been formalised in a letter from Sir Tim Barrow to the President of the European Council.

Linky: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/m...9/03/21/art50/

I'm no expert but the gist of it is that HoC agreement is not required at the level of international law in this instance, the deed is now formally done. HoC will, however, ratify it anyway to keep things tidy at the UK legal level. Otherwise we could accidentally end up in the awkward situation of still being in the EU (as a matter of international law) but having inadvertently repealed the EC act of 1974 (as a matter of UK law).
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:51 PM   #431
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Either your Schrödinger's Romanian is only working 18½ hours per week, or he's being paid less than minimum wage. How much of a "fraction" of the previous employee's wage does this represent? Said Schrödinger's Romanian is also going to have higher living costs in the UK, so £600 here is not going to be that much better than £200 in Romania.

Of course, I only know two Romanians living in the UK. One is a GP, and the other is an asbestos contamination specialist, neither of which are minimum wage jobs.
They cram together in a family house. The one I knew managed to cadge a fiver off me, or a cup of tea, every time I passed him as I fell for his sob story, 'My hostel has cut my electricity off'.

One day having heard this tale for the third time, I enquired where he was living.

'Guildford,' he replied.

Astonished, I asked how he managed to get up to London every day, recalling my journeys from Surrey Uni and the cost.

'Oh I've got my car parked up the road'.

The cheeky little ******.

He even ran after me once to complain I'd given him a Euro coin instead of a pound. He even followed me into a supermarket after spotting me across the road.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:59 PM   #432
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Who would have guessed that the emergency planning was also a bit of a mess?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit
Ah yes. Operation Yellowhammer.

"The classified document, seen by the Guardian, sets out the command and control structures in Whitehall for coping with a no-deal departure and says government departments will have to firefight most problems for themselves – or risk a collapse of “Operation Yellowhammer”.

“The … structure will quickly fall if too many decisions are unnecessarily escalated to the top levels that could have reasonably been dealt with internally …” the document says. It also concedes there are “likely to be unforeseen issues and impacts” of a no-deal Brexit that Operation Yellowhammer has been unable to predict."
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:06 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
They cram together in a family house. The one I knew managed to cadge a fiver off me, or a cup of tea, every time I passed him as I fell for his sob story, 'My hostel has cut my electricity off'.

One day having heard this tale for the third time, I enquired where he was living.

'Guildford,' he replied.

Astonished, I asked how he managed to get up to London every day, recalling my journeys from Surrey Uni and the cost.

'Oh I've got my car parked up the road'.

The cheeky little ******.

He even ran after me once to complain I'd given him a Euro coin instead of a pound. He even followed me into a supermarket after spotting me across the road.
And this is somehow related to your earlier, and still unsupported, assertions?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:10 PM   #434
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
And this is somehow related to your earlier, and still unsupported, assertions?
As Bob Dylan said, it doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

ETA: What about the GRAUNIAD:

Quote:
“I had a target per hour to pick up 300 cases, if you do not make that target you go home.

“You were put on trial for three months and if you didn’t make the 300 crates per hour every day you didn’t get a job. I was determined to get the job so I picked up 400 crates an hour, more than I needed.”

In her 18 months in the warehouse she says there was just one British worker. “He lasted three days.”

She hated the job she says and she was lonely, but she did it for the money, £12 an hour.

In a good week she could make close to £500, more than the monthly wage in Romania but the tyranny of poor employment options made it impossible to leave.
They will do it for a miserly wage a Brit will not touch.

Don't get me wrong, they are optimising their own circumstances. That's why people migrate.

Picking up 400 crates an hour for £12 is the EU taking the piss, not the fault of the Romanians.

However, workers rights do need to be protected and this is where Corbyn is coming from. Nothing to do with xenophobia.
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Last edited by Vixen; 22nd March 2019 at 03:21 PM.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:20 PM   #435
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So your boss puts you on a zero-hours contract. You find yourself kicking your heels at home. You work very few hours so you go down to the Benefits office. They put you on Universal Credit. Five weeks later you have a few coins in your pocket for food, the bills are mounting up, interest is accruing on your credit card at an alarming rate because of you can only make 'minumum payment' you are still waiting for your Univefrsal Credit benefit to come through.
It's terrible the situation we are in, austerity doesn't work for the people in that situation and government know that.

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
In the meantime you discover your boss has taken on a Romanian worker paying him a fraction of what you were being paid, as in Romania, average monthly wage is £200, so he is ecstatic to be now earning £600 pcm.
We have minimum/living wage, I suspect the fraction would be very near to 1/1, regardless of where people come from.

Quote:
Does the government or the EU care? No sirree. The EU was a capitalist idea.

Employers love the idea of cheaper labour and raw materials.

Enter the Labour party and trade unions.

It takes someone like Jeremy Corbyn to stand up to the stripping away of workers rights (and that includes all of you who like to consider yourselves middle class or professional class).

No wonder the Tory press hates him and defames him at every opportunity.
I'm a labour supporter, come hell or high water, because workers need to have protection. you have to stick to the facts though
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:22 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If MPs agree to May's deal, we leave later. If they do not, they have until sooner to decide "no deal" or cancel (I don't really understand why it is that way round, you would think agreeing to May's deal would mean leaving sooner and still not sure what to do would get more time).

So the three options that have been on the table for months now are still all on the table.

In effect there is complete deadlock with no sign of a solution.
May deadline is for UK and EU to finish any technical things necessary for withdrawal. April deadline is because of EP elections.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:23 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
They cram together in a family house. The one I knew managed to cadge a fiver off me, or a cup of tea, every time I passed him as I fell for his sob story, 'My hostel has cut my electricity off'.

One day having heard this tale for the third time, I enquired where he was living.

'Guildford,' he replied.

Astonished, I asked how he managed to get up to London every day, recalling my journeys from Surrey Uni and the cost.

'Oh I've got my car parked up the road'.

The cheeky little ******.

He even ran after me once to complain I'd given him a Euro coin instead of a pound. He even followed me into a supermarket after spotting me across the road.
Cool anecdote, sis.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 03:35 PM   #438
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
As Bob Dylan said, it doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

ETA: What about the GRAUNIAD:

Quote:
“I had a target per hour to pick up 300 cases, if you do not make that target you go home.

“You were put on trial for three months and if you didn’t make the 300 crates per hour every day you didn’t get a job. I was determined to get the job so I picked up 400 crates an hour, more than I needed.”

In her 18 months in the warehouse she says there was just one British worker. “He lasted three days.”

She hated the job she says and she was lonely, but she did it for the money, £12 an hour.

In a good week she could make close to £500, more than the monthly wage in Romania but the tyranny of poor employment options made it impossible to leave.
They will do it for a miserly wage a Brit will not touch.

Don't get me wrong, they are optimising their own circumstances. That's why people migrate.

Picking up 400 crates an hour for £12 is the EU taking the piss, not the fault of the Romanians.

However, workers rights do need to be protected and this is where Corbyn is coming from. Nothing to do with xenophobia.
Hang on, you were complaining earlier about Romanians stealing jobs to end up "earning £600 pcm." Now you quote someone on up to £500 per week.

Also, the numbers don't add up, since the bit you didn't quote states, "You had to work very hard every day, must pick up 2,000 boxes, boxes of milk, pizza, cooked meats, juice, yoghurt." So she goes from 2,000 "boxes" per day to 300 "cases" per hour, but ended up doing 400 "crates" per hours. In a 7½ hour day, 2,000 is 267 per hour, but 400 per hour would be 3,000 per day. Really?

Last edited by Information Analyst; 22nd March 2019 at 04:03 PM.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:01 PM   #439
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[quote=Information Analyst;12642401]
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
As Bob Dylan said, it doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

ETA: What about the GRAUNIAD:



Hang on, you were complaining earlier about Romanians stealing jobs to end up "earning £600 pcm." Now you quote someone on up to £500 per week.

Also, the numbers don't add up, since the bit you didn't quote states, "You had to work very hard every day, must pick up 2,000 boxes, boxes of milk, pizza, cooked meats, juice, yoghurt." So she goes from 2,000 "boxes" per day to 300 "cases" per hour, but ended up doing 400 "crates" per hours. In a 7½ hour day, 2,000 is 267 per hour, but 400 per hour would be 3,000 per day. Really?
I didn't say they were stealing jobs. Don't twist my words.

As the above is a direct quote from the GRAUNIAD have a go at them.

Have it your way. Wages in Romania are exactly the same as in the UK. There is no debating with some people.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 04:05 PM   #440
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