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Old 18th November 2018, 07:49 AM   #1441
dasmiller
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
No, you just frantically Googled something trying to prove me wrong. The paper proved legal residents and illegal aliens do vote in US elections.
No, it made no claim about illegal aliens voting. The paper claimed that a few percent of non-citizens voted, and acknowledged that of all the respondents to the study (voting and non-voting), some may have been illegal aliens. It did not make the leap from "some of the respondents may have been illegal" to "some of the respondents were illegal, and they voted."
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Old 18th November 2018, 10:01 AM   #1442
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Getting upset about political ignorance with lips affixed to the arse of a president who would fail a junior high civics exam.
Applause
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Old 18th November 2018, 11:10 AM   #1443
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Why do you people insist on assuming that governing is about binary choices? It's possible to want to control our borders and enforce our immigration laws humanely.

Of those people who oppose Trump, who has said they want open borders besides Bob?
Probably just me, however like Bob I am a Libertarian.
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Old 18th November 2018, 07:49 PM   #1444
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Why do you people insist on assuming that governing is about binary choices? It's possible to want to control our borders and enforce our immigration laws humanely.

Of those people who oppose Trump, who has said they want open borders besides Bob?
Nuance is something Trump supporters don't understand. To them, you are either for "The Wall" or for open borders.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:36 PM   #1445
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Funny how those two go together.

Gee I wonder if that's why the Dems here want illegal aliens voting, porous borders and sanctuary cities? Almost seems like some sort of plan, hmmm.

Thanks for clearing that up. I mean they sure seem insistent on bringing illegals here - it makes total sense now.
I'm sorry. Your post is unbelievably ignorant. How long do you suppose it takes to become a citizen so you can vote? Well over a decade.

There is no evidence to support John Fund's lies, Trump's lies and gawd knows whoever else is believing and spreading the lie that non-citizens are voting. It's pure dishonest fear mongering.

https://www.politifact.com/punditfac...did-not-vote-/

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...nap-story.html

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/th...llegal-aliens/

https://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/tr...-fraud-claims/

There is a single study widely circulated that claims to have found thousand of illegal votes in 2008. It's behind a paywall so we can't see anything about methodology, and it's been debunked by other researchers and Snopes:

https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/news/pe...sample-surveys

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/il...2008-election/


I'm going to bet you know all this but choose to believe the fear mongering.

Ooooouuu, scary brown people.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:41 PM   #1446
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
The ignorance of non-Americans knowledge of US politics is appalling. What's even more appalling is they feel privileged enough to lecture Americans on US politics. Reading ISF posts is absolute cringe.

"Non-citizen votes likely gave Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress."

https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.scien...61379414000973
OK here is the single study without the paywall. Given the results have not been repeatable and the methodology was challenged (see above) I'm not expecting much but I will read it with an open mind.
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Old 18th November 2018, 09:58 PM   #1447
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From the Snopes link above:
Quote:
The Washington Times is reporting that a web site named “JustFacts.com” has concluded that a widely-discredited 2014 study arguing up to 2.8 million non-citizens voted in the 2008 presidential election (based on the extrapolation of 38 survey responses from people who may have voted as non-citizens) has been unfairly debunked by “liberal fact checkers” and that, in reality, the number could be as high as 5.7 million....

Using this data, some modeling, and error analysis, the authors concluded that between 7.9 percent and 14.7 percent of non-citizens voted in the 2008 elections. They then simply applied this to the entire non-citizen population in the United States. The findings are as crude as they are controversial:
The bottom line:
Quote:
If extrapolating to a number based from Internet survey response data from a pool of 339 non-citizens into the millions sounds problematic to you, you are not alone.
I've read the article and the criticisms and if the study had valid results you can bet the entire GOP of witch hunters would be repeating the study and tracking the criminals down. But they are not. Instead they are repeating over and over in the echo chamber this one study as proof all those non-citizens were voting.
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Old 18th November 2018, 10:04 PM   #1448
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
OK here is the single study without the paywall. Given the results have not been repeatable and the methodology was challenged (see above) I'm not expecting much but I will read it with an open mind.
Here's a rebuttal:

http://web.stanford.edu/group/bps/cg...in-surveys.pdf

Author affiliations:
Quote:
a Harvard University, PI CCES, United States
b YouGov, United States
c University of Massachusetts, Amherst, co-PI CCES, United States
Quote:
This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES.
The example for this analysis is Richman et al. (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.
Quote:
Fourth, the probability that the observed voters in the non-voter
category are in fact citizens who have been misclassified is nearly 1.
The expected number of citizens who are identified as non-citizens
is 19 (0.1 percent times 18,878). The sample contains 105 persons
who are identified as non-citizens in 2012. Assuming that the vote
rate among citizens is 0.7, then the expected number of citizen voters
who are classified as non-citizens is 13. Hence, we expect in a sample
of 105 non-citizen persons that there would be 13 people who are in
fact citizen voters but misclassified as non-citizens. The actual
number of observed is only 4 (3 in 2010 and 1 in 2012). This is much
lower than the expected number. Hence the probability that these 4
cases are in fact citizens identified as non-citizens is nearly 1.2
Quote:
This problem arises because the survey was not designed to
sample non-citizens, and the non-citizen category in the citizenship
question is included for completeness and to identify those respondents
who might be non-citizens. We expect that most of that
group are in fact non-citizens (85 of 105), but the very low level of
misclassification of citizens, who comprise 97.4 percent of the sample,
means that we expect that 19 “non-citizen” respondents (16.5
percent of all reported non-citizens) are citizens who are misclassified.
And, those misclassified people can readily account for the
observed vote among those who reported that they are non-citizens.

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Old 19th November 2018, 01:39 AM   #1449
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'm sorry. Your post is unbelievably ignorant. How long do you suppose it takes to become a citizen so you can vote? Well over a decade.

There is no evidence to support John Fund's lies, Trump's lies and gawd knows whoever else is believing and spreading the lie that non-citizens are voting. It's pure dishonest fear mongering.

https://www.politifact.com/punditfac...did-not-vote-/

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...nap-story.html

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/th...llegal-aliens/

https://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/tr...-fraud-claims/
This is what's called a Snow Job.

Quote:
There is a single study widely circulated that claims to have found thousand of illegal votes in 2008. It's behind a paywall so we can't see anything about methodology, and it's been debunked by other researchers and Snopes:
It hasn't been debunked. Also learn what sci-hub is and how to use it. It's the current year after all.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:30 AM   #1450
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Evidence of voter fraud is still lacking, the one study cited is nonsense and tries to use a margin of error as evidence of non-citizens voting. You aren't tricking anyone here, Baylor, try another tactic.
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Old 19th November 2018, 02:30 AM   #1451
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
This is what's called a Snow Job.
Obviously your post lacks substance and I'm pretty sure it will not sway one reader one iota. Plus fyi, the practice of Random Capitalization that's all the rage these days doesn't compensate; it doesn't make your post punchy/edgy/witty.
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Old 19th November 2018, 09:25 AM   #1452
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post

It hasn't been debunked.
Yes, it has.
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Old 19th November 2018, 10:22 AM   #1453
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Here's a rebuttal:

Author affiliations:
Notable: Richman et al. (2014) cite three papers by Ansolabehere, who is lead author on the 2015 paper discrediting Richman et al. 2014. Ouch.
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Old 19th November 2018, 10:51 AM   #1454
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Deleted... wrong thread
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Old 19th November 2018, 11:12 AM   #1455
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Probably just me, however like Bob I am a Libertarian.
And me and I am not a Libertarian.
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Old 19th November 2018, 08:36 PM   #1456
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
This is what's called a Snow Job.

It hasn't been debunked. Also learn what sci-hub is and how to use it. It's the current year after all.
I'll make you a deal. I'll learn what sci-hub is (there, done... since I already knew that) and you learn what the scientific method is.

Richman et al has been debunked. They make assumptions and extrapolations with no empirical evidence to support them. A single tiny error in a mass participation poll can skew the results immensely and they chose to ignore the possibility of simple human error if a respondent said they were not US citizens but then said they voted.

This has been debunked by all but the people who believe, say, that there are No Go zones in Europe.. (I had this queued up to respond to yesterday but Ginger and Kelly did all the legwork so I didn't have to - at least I thought so. Apparently having your "facts" shoved down your throat has no effect on the willfully blind.)
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Old 19th November 2018, 09:38 PM   #1457
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Originally Posted by Tommy Jeppesen View Post
And me and I am not a Libertarian.
I am not a librarian.
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Old 19th November 2018, 09:49 PM   #1458
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
I am not a librarian.
I am not a Liberian.
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Old 19th November 2018, 11:58 PM   #1459
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
""It is now officially clear I won the constitutional 'one-person, one-vote' first choice election on Election Day that has been used in Maine for more than one hundred years."

It's also now officially clear that the new system worked as intended.
Hey perhaps he could do a joint legal suit with Clinton, after all it is clear she also won the constitutional "one-person, one-vote" first choice on Election day.....

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Old Yesterday, 12:12 AM   #1460
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
I'll make you a deal. I'll learn what sci-hub is (there, done... since I already knew that) and you learn what the scientific method is.
I'll make you a deal. I'll learn what the scientific method is (there, done....since I already knew that) and you read the paper you are commenting on.

Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
They make assumptions and extrapolations with no empirical evidence to support them. A single tiny error in a mass participation poll can skew the results immensely and they chose to ignore the possibility of simple human error if a respondent said they were not US citizens but then said they voted.
Oooooo....if you read the paper you'd realize they didn't ignore it. They wrote an appendix about it (seriously, how lazy can you get.) They provided evidence that the respondents did answer accurately. Since getting the last word is not part of the scientific method (see told you I knew it) there was no need for them to respond to something they already debunked.

Last edited by Baylor; Yesterday at 12:18 AM.
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Old Yesterday, 12:18 AM   #1461
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
...Plus fyi, the practice of Random Capitalization that's all the rage these days doesn't compensate; it doesn't make your post punchy/edgy/witty.


No but your made me laugh.
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Old Yesterday, 12:22 AM   #1462
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There's no more than the most insignificant voter fraud, Baylor. If there was more than that, the right-wing blogosphere would have a whole lot more than one questionable 5 yr old study using 10 yr old data echoing around in there.
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Old Yesterday, 12:44 AM   #1463
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Trump assigned a commission, headed by Kris Kobach, specifically aimed at uncovering the 'massive voter fraud' that he claimed took place in the 2016 election. And what did they find? Nada. Zilch. Rien.

As Skeptic Ginger said, if there was any proof of this voter fraud, we'd be hearing about it from Trump every time he opened that cesspool he calls a mouth.
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Old Yesterday, 01:14 AM   #1464
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
There's no more than the most insignificant voter fraud, Baylor. If there was more than that, the right-wing blogosphere would have a whole lot more than one questionable 5 yr old study using 10 yr old data echoing around in there.
Nevermind the blogosphere! The think tanks would make sure it was common knowledge to all the Fox viewers. We'd be drowning in Hannity clips about it.
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Old Yesterday, 01:58 AM   #1465
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Nevermind the blogosphere! The think tanks would make sure it was common knowledge to all the Fox viewers. We'd be drowning in Hannity clips about it.
But, but, but...Dear Leader TOLD us there are millions of illegals voting and it's why he didn't win the popular vote! He wouldn't lie to us. Would he?
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Old Yesterday, 04:09 AM   #1466
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
I am not a Liberian.
I am a Libran (apparently)
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Old Yesterday, 08:44 AM   #1467
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Walmart, the conscience of America, is demanding that the nutcase from Mississippi who's into lynching return their campaign contribution.
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Old Yesterday, 08:45 AM   #1468
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
I'll make you a deal. I'll learn what the scientific method is (there, done....since I already knew that) and you read the paper you are commenting on.

Oooooo....if you read the paper you'd realize they didn't ignore it. They wrote an appendix about it (seriously, how lazy can you get.) They provided evidence that the respondents did answer accurately. Since getting the last word is not part of the scientific method (see told you I knew it) there was no need for them to respond to something they already debunked.
Yeah, they addressed it by saying they were ignoring it, offering very dodgy reasons for doing so. They stand by their data points and refuse to run a model that assumes anything other than their own "best guesses".
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Old Yesterday, 11:54 AM   #1469
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Walmart, the conscience of America, is demanding that the nutcase from Mississippi who's into lynching return their campaign contribution.
What she said only makes sense if lynchings are thing that she wouldn't normally be into, were in not for affect the gentleman has on her.

Which doesn't really make what she said justifiable and her response to it is utterly moronic, but the conceit of the 'joke' rests on the premise that public hangings are inherently unpleasant to her somehow.
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Old Yesterday, 12:38 PM   #1470
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
What she said only makes sense if lynchings are thing that she wouldn't normally be into, were in not for affect the gentleman has on her.

Which doesn't really make what she said justifiable and her response to it is utterly moronic, but the conceit of the 'joke' rests on the premise that public hangings are inherently unpleasant to her somehow.

What she said was that, if he invited her to a public hanging, she would be in the front row. Maybe she would want a better view of one of his hangings than a normal hanging. For those, she's willing to stand farther back.
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Old Yesterday, 06:32 PM   #1471
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
What she said only makes sense if lynchings are thing that she wouldn't normally be into, were in not for affect the gentleman has on her.

Which doesn't really make what she said justifiable and her response to it is utterly moronic, but the conceit of the 'joke' rests on the premise that public hangings are inherently unpleasant to her somehow.
I don't cut an iota of slack based on that flimsy excuse.

As a state senator, she attempted to have a highway named after Jefferson Davis. A picture has emerged showing her wearing Confederate artifacts. Yeah right, that "jest" didn't reflect her noxious beliefs one bit.
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Old Yesterday, 06:38 PM   #1472
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I don't cut an iota of slack based on that flimsy excuse.

As a state senator, she attempted to have a highway named after Jefferson Davis. A picture has emerged showing her wearing Confederate artifacts. Yeah right, that "jest" didn't reflect her noxious beliefs one bit.
Trump earlier today said of Cindy Hyde-Smith:

Quote:
"Cindy Hyde-Smith is a spectacular woman. She's a great senator," the president said as he embarked on a trip to Florida for the holidays. "She came in and she's done a fantastic job in a short period of time."

Trump was asked about the controversy surrounding Hyde-Smith. She has been criticized for both her recent comments that she'd be glad to attend a "public hanging" for a friend and a video that appeared to show Hyde-Smith supporting voter suppression.

"She made a statement, which I know that she feels really bad about it, and was just sort of said in jest," Trump said. "She's a tremendous woman and it's a shame that she has to go through this."
(USA Today)
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Old Yesterday, 10:02 PM   #1473
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Mia Love has lost to McAdams in Utah, so that's 39 flipped seats now, with a possibility of one more yet to be resolved. The total votes counted so far is over 110M, compared to 87M cast in the Tea Party wave of 2010. Republican prospects for 2020 are looking very dim.
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Old Yesterday, 10:38 PM   #1474
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Mia Love has lost to McAdams in Utah, so that's 39 flipped seats now, with a possibility of one more yet to be resolved. The total votes counted so far is over 110M, compared to 87M cast in the Tea Party wave of 2010. Republican prospects for 2020 are looking very dim.
Well, I'm torn on this one. Knowing that the House GOP Caucus would have her front and center in numerous PR photos, the thought of her being there as a thorn in Trump's side was a concession to the GOP holding the seat.

Love was a star on Fox and in out-of-state rallies. I had checked the last couple of elections on pro rata spending and she paid more per vote than almost any candidate in the country. Utah Republicans were never totally behind her. Fox was.
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Old Today, 12:05 AM   #1475
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Mia Love has lost to McAdams in Utah, so that's 39 flipped seats now, with a possibility of one more yet to be resolved. The total votes counted so far is over 110M, compared to 87M cast in the Tea Party wave of 2010. Republican prospects for 2020 are looking very dim.
Dems' national lead in raw House votes - now 8.8 million - just broke the record for largest for either party in the history of midterm elections (previous record was 8.7 million set by Dems in 1974).
That resulted in a 49 seat gain with Dems already in control of the house. Gerrymandering is extremely effective.
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Old Today, 02:29 AM   #1476
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
This is what's called a Snow Job.

It hasn't been debunked. Also learn what sci-hub is and how to use it. It's the current year after all.
Okay, so here's a debunking for you.

Their table and their conclusion give different levels if accuracy and based on the 19.4 million non-citizens in the US, at the levels of accuracy they quote in their charts (+/-5% at 95% confidence), their sample size in 13% too small to be statistically useful, and it is actually over 50% too small to be accurate to the levels that they give in their discussion (+/-3.5% at 95% confidence), and that isn't even bothering to go into their actual method and assumptions.

Or if you want the short version, they invalidly extrapolated the numbers based on an invalid sample size.

Happy?
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Old Today, 02:52 AM   #1477
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Walmart, the conscience of America, is demanding that the nutcase from Mississippi who's into lynching return their campaign contribution.
"The politician we purchased (so they'll vote the way we want them to, not the way the voters they represent want them to) wasn't what was advertised.


Do politicians come with a money back guarantee after one has purchased them?
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Old Today, 05:48 AM   #1478
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Republican prospects for 2020 are looking very dim.
I'll believe that when I see that the Democrats aren't going to just spend two years wasting this opportunity just like before.

Some of the Democrats who just won the latest elections have been talking about progressive legislation they plan to start writing & voting on, which is a good sign. But somehow, although most Democrats don't want Pelosi as Speaker, no others have self-nominated yet, so there's nobody else yet to vote for instead of her. Her influence over other Democrats has faded in unofficial ways, but Speaker is still an influencial seat, and two more years of Pelosi is one of the surest ways to make much of the base give up and pave the way for the Republicans next time.
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