The Kyrsten Sinema Thread - Page 3

The Great Zaganza · 23rd December 2022, 12:14 AM

When checking who I vote for, I pay particular note to reports on how they treat their staff and how ex-staff talks about them.
If you have to treat your staff like a tyrant to have your way, why would you treat the people you are supposed to represent differently?

thaiboxerken · 23rd December 2022, 04:33 PM

I wonder if Brainster works at a cherry farm. He's good at picking them.

Suddenly · 27th December 2022, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

No. As an Indie, she would avoid being primaried. If the Dem party didn't back her and backed her challenger instead, there's little chance she'd win the nomination. As an Indie, she does have a small but better chance of winning if she can pull votes from, as I said, Indies, non-Maga GOP, and more moderate to conservative Dems. In AZ, voters are roughly divided evenly among the 3 parties.

As an indie she's likely unbeatable as long as she agrees to caucus with the Dems. It's a game of chicken. She's always going to be more palatable to Democrats than whatever nightmare wins a GOP primary so the Dems are going to support her rather than split the vote and risk losing the seat.

Meanwhile they have no way of getting her off the ballot.

It's tactically brilliant.

Random · 27th December 2022, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by Suddenly

As an indie she's likely unbeatable as long as she agrees to caucus with the Dems. It's a game of chicken. She's always going to be more palatable to Democrats than whatever nightmare wins a GOP primary so the Dems are going to support her rather than split the vote and risk losing the seat.

Meanwhile they have no way of getting her off the ballot.

It's tactically brilliant.

Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters.

If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator.

Stacyhs · 27th December 2022, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by Random

Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters.

If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator.

Agreed.

Suddenly · 27th December 2022, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by Random

Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters.

If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator.

They aren't going to know how important that seat is when these things are set in motion. Every seat matters.

I also depends on just how loathsome the GOP candidate is. Which going by the Arizona GOP the sky's the limit. She doesn't need to come anywhere near winning a three way race as much present a guarantee of a GOP loss. Shouldn't that be all that matters?

(At least that's what I hear whenever a progressive threatens to not vote Democrat)

The Democrats chucking a crucial seat to some GOP lizard person because they don't think Sinema is enough on their side and was mean to them would be right on the nose.

Random · 27th December 2022, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by Suddenly

They aren't going to know how important that seat is when these things are set in motion. Every seat matters.

I also depends on just how loathsome the GOP candidate is. Which going by the Arizona GOP the sky's the limit. She doesn't need to come anywhere near winning a three way race as much present a guarantee of a GOP loss. Shouldn't that be all that matters?

(At least that's what I hear whenever a progressive threatens to not vote Democrat)

You are assuming that Sinema would pull more Dem votes than GOP votes, a debatable assumption at best. Non-zero chance a third party run from her would serve as a spoiler against the GOP candidate.

Quote:

The Democrats chucking a crucial seat to some GOP lizard person because they don't think Sinema is enough on their side and was mean to them would be right on the nose.

We can't control how people feel about the candidates. Sinema broke with the party and blocked stuff in really unpopular ways. Fighting for the Carried Interest Loophole and drug company price gouging hurt her badly on approval ratings from the left. She has also been ignoring her constituents and voter groups in Arizona, which is a bad look. Running as an independent in order to avoid a near-certain Democratic primary challenge (which she would lose) is unlikely to make Democrats love her again.

If the candidates are selected, and the first polls show Sinema in third place behind the Dem and GOP candidates, why would Dems flip to her?

lobosrul5 · 27th December 2022, 04:32 PM

Originally Posted by Random

You are assuming that Sinema would pull more Dem votes than GOP votes, a debatable assumption at best. Non-zero chance a third party run from her would serve as a spoiler against the GOP candidate.

We can't control how people feel about the candidates. Sinema broke with the party and blocked stuff in really unpopular ways. Fighting for the Carried Interest Loophole and drug company price gouging hurt her badly on approval ratings from the left. She has also been ignoring her constituents and voter groups in Arizona, which is a bad look. Running as an independent in order to avoid a near-certain Democratic primary challenge (which she would lose) is unlikely to make Democrats love her again.

If the candidates are selected, and the first polls show Sinema in third place behind the Dem and GOP candidates, why would Dems flip to her?

I'd remind you that Mark Kelly didn't exactly have a blow out win against a candidate who:

-Essentially JAQ'd off when talking about the "Great Replacement" theory.
-On gun control: "It's gangs. It's people in Chicago, St. Louis shooting each other. Very often, you know, Black people, frankly. And the Democrats don't want to do anything about that."
-Wants the federal reserve replaced with bitcoin.
-Opposes aid to Ukraine
-Wants to privatize social security

Thats just the tip of the iceberg, and he received 46.5% of the vote against Mark Kelly. A pretty middle of the road Dem.

Its Arizona... Sinema v a real dem candidate v MAGAchud has about a 99% chance of MAGAChud winning. I suppose the DNC can conduct some polls to see and be sure.

Random · 27th December 2022, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

(snip)

Its Arizona... Sinema v a real dem candidate v MAGAchud has about a 99% chance of MAGAChud winning. I suppose the DNC can conduct some polls to see and be sure.

Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general.

No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run).

Resume · 27th December 2022, 06:20 PM

Yes, Sinema is toast, unless she invested her grift wisely . . . nope, toast.

lobosrul5 · 28th December 2022, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by Random

Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general.

No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run).

In any actual blue state you'd be spot on. But look at the registration numbers for AZ:

Republican 1,436,852 34.67%
Independent 1,404,385 33.89%
Democratic 1,270,544 30.66%
Libertarian 32,148 .78%

Dem registration is in... 3rd place!

I do think, perhaps, the DNC will need to wait and see what sort of candidate the GOP runs for senate in 2024 before deciding to oppose Sinema or not. If its another awful candidate like Blake Masters then they just might get most of the indy's on their side. But if not, its a lost cause IMO.

Random · 28th December 2022, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

In any actual blue state you'd be spot on. But look at the registration numbers for AZ:

Republican 1,436,852 34.67%
Independent 1,404,385 33.89%
Democratic 1,270,544 30.66%
Libertarian 32,148 .78%

Dem registration is in... 3rd place!

I do think, perhaps, the DNC will need to wait and see what sort of candidate the GOP runs for senate in 2024 before deciding to oppose Sinema or not. If its another awful candidate like Blake Masters then they just might get most of the indy's on their side. But if not, its a lost cause IMO.

I don't think the DNC gets to decide if other people can try to run for the Democratic nomination...

Trebuchet · 28th December 2022, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by Random

Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general.

No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run).

She sees Bernie Sanders and thinks "I can do that". But Bernie is to the LEFT of the Dems, she's somewhere off in no-woman's-land or lala land. She's definitely not Bernie.
She might stand a chance of winning the general election if she runs as a Republican. But she stands no chance of winning the nomination, so it's a moot point.

lobosrul5 · 28th December 2022, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by Random

I don't think the DNC gets to decide if other people can try to run for the Democratic nomination...

They can put pressure on the AZ Democratic Party to not run a candidate by refusing to put any money into the race. But you are correct, its the AZ Dems who get final say to put forward a candidate in any given race.

The Don · 29th December 2022, 02:10 AM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

She sees Bernie Sanders and thinks "I can do that". But Bernie is to the LEFT of the Dems, she's somewhere off in no-woman's-land or lala land. She's definitely not Bernie.
She might stand a chance of winning the general election if she runs as a Republican. But she stands no chance of winning the nomination, so it's a moot point.

Maybe she thinks that the threat of splitting the vote will be sufficient for the Democrats to comply ?

Gulliver Foyle · 29th December 2022, 02:19 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

They can put pressure on the AZ Democratic Party to not run a candidate by refusing to put any money into the race. But you are correct, its the AZ Dems who get final say to put forward a candidate in any given race.

I'd still run an official candidate against her. In this case whoever the party of treason puts up is the devil you know, and you know the old saying.

lobosrul5 · 29th December 2022, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

I'd still run an official candidate against her. In this case whoever the party of treason puts up is the devil you know, and you know the old saying.

In which case they'll be running against two devil's they know.

Originally Posted by The Don

Maybe she thinks that the threat of splitting the vote will be sufficient for the Democrats to comply ?

Its a calculated gamble by Sinema... she wanted that sweet sweet private equity donor money* and the price she is going to pay is likely to be primary'd in '24. Her best shot at retaining her seat is for the Dems to just not run against her, her second best shot is to come in first in a 3 way race.

*https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/how-...tax-break.html

Good lord getting rid of that thing was something DONALD TRUMP campaigned on in 2016... he then did absolutely nothing for 4 years as president, but STILL.

Random · 29th December 2022, 11:30 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

In which case they'll be running against two devil's they know.

Its a calculated gamble by Sinema... she wanted that sweet sweet private equity donor money* and the price she is going to pay is likely to be primary'd in '24. Her best shot at retaining her seat is for the Dems to just not run against her, her second best shot is to come in first in a 3 way race.

*https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/how-...tax-break.html

Good lord getting rid of that thing was something DONALD TRUMP campaigned on in 2016... he then did absolutely nothing for 4 years as president, but STILL.

It's not just a question of Dems not running against her, they have to actively support her to make the math work out. And they won't. There will be no big volunteer drives, GOTV, door to door canvassing, etc. She will have a big pile of corporate cash, but that gets you employees, not supporters.

John McCain's secret sauce was pretty simple. Always vote with the party unless the party was doing something that would be really unpopular back home. Sinema's strategy of always voting with the party unless someone hands her a big bag of wonga is not going to be as successful.

thaiboxerken · 29th December 2022, 11:47 AM

Running as an independent will only garner her a loss because she isn't popular with anyone, not the Democrats, not the independents, not the Republicans. It's a hail-mary play on her part, but it won't work.

Her decisions to vote how her biggest donors told her to vote was political suicide. If she was a Republican, I think it would not have, since Republicans are beholden to the wealthy.

Tero · 30th December 2022, 05:32 AM

Well, someone will run as Democrat. Out here in red states we have good candidates, but if polling shows only 40%, the national democratic funding does not arrive.

The money then DOES arrive for the Republican to run a smear candidate.

lobosrul5 · 30th December 2022, 01:35 PM

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race

First poll for AZ Senate '24.

Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%.

So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59.

Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters.

Sinema takes a bit more from Biden voters than Trump voters.

Bob001 · 30th December 2022, 01:52 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race

First poll for AZ Senate '24.

Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%.

So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59.
....

It's still a little early for predictions. Lake right now is one of the best known political figures in Arizona, probably more so than Gallego. Sometimes on these polls people pick the name they know best. But we don't know how Lake would do in a primary against multiple non-crazy Repubs. And as Lake continues to go to court and lose, she might ultimately self-destruct. She's already wound pretty tight.

Sinema could be a spoiler against either party. She could also win a three-way race with as little as 34% of the vote.

Random · 30th December 2022, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race

First poll for AZ Senate '24.

Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%.

So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59.

Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters.

Sinema takes a bit more from Biden voters than Trump voters.

And that's about it for Sinema. As a sitting Senator with near universal name recognition, coming in last place in a three-person poll (not even a close last place either, about a third as much support as either of the other two) in her home state is basically the end. Dropping the Democratic party just means that she will be in checkmate in five moves instead of three.

Bob001 · 30th December 2022, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Random

And that's about it for Sinema. As a sitting Senator with near universal name recognition, coming in last place in a three-person poll (not even a close last place either, about a third as much support as either of the other two) in her home state is basically the end. Dropping the Democratic party just means that she will be in checkmate in five moves instead of three.

It still comes down to who the other candidates are in two years. Arizona voters have already sent her to the House three times and to the Senate once. I wouldn't write her off yet.

Random · 30th December 2022, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by Bob001

It still comes down to who the other candidates are in two years. Arizona voters have already sent her to the House three times and to the Senate once. I wouldn't write her off yet.

Nah, she's done for. 13% support might be a good starting place for an unknown politician at the start of a run, but a sitting US Senator with universal name recognition? No, that 13% means something. It means that voters actively do not like her, regardless of who the other candidates are.

She isn't the moderate alternative candidate for people who want to "cast a vote against the other guy". She is the candidate people are voting against.

mikegriffith1 · 18th January 2023, 02:53 PM

She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here.

plague311 · 18th January 2023, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by mikegriffith1

She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here.

*cough* Meghan McCain *cough*

Glass houses and all.

thaiboxerken · 18th January 2023, 03:13 PM

Originally Posted by mikegriffith1

She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here.

What is a liberal extremist?

Beelzebuddy · 18th January 2023, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken

What is a liberal extremist?

Someone who puts a "we believe in extremism" flag on their front lawn.

Stacyhs · 18th January 2023, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken

What is a liberal extremist?

Anyone who isn't a Republican.

TheGoldcountry · 18th January 2023, 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by mikegriffith1

She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here.

Oh, give me a break. Liz Cheney is a conservative who voted with Trump 92% of the time, and the Republicans wanted to crucify her for suggesting that maybe ransacking the Capitol isn't a wonderful idea.

GTFO out of here with the "liberal extremist" BS. Anything left of the ******* Gestapo is "liberal" to MAGA **** heads.

Stacyhs · 19th January 2023, 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry

Oh, give me a break. Liz Cheney is a conservative who voted with Trump 92% of the time, and the Republicans wanted to crucify her for suggesting that maybe ransacking the Capitol isn't a wonderful idea.

GTFO out of here with the "liberal extremist" BS. Anything left of the ******* Gestapo is "liberal" to MAGA **** heads.

Isn't that the truth!

23rd December 2022, 12:14 AM	#81
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 19,305	When checking who I vote for, I pay particular note to reports on how they treat their staff and how ex-staff talks about them. If you have to treat your staff like a tyrant to have your way, why would you treat the people you are supposed to represent differently?
	__________________ "The only true paradise is paradise lost" Marcel Proust

23rd December 2022, 04:33 PM	#82
thaiboxerken Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 32,473	I wonder if Brainster works at a cherry farm. He's good at picking them.
	__________________ 1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it.

27th December 2022, 03:11 PM	#84
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by Suddenly As an indie she's likely unbeatable as long as she agrees to caucus with the Dems. It's a game of chicken. She's always going to be more palatable to Democrats than whatever nightmare wins a GOP primary so the Dems are going to support her rather than split the vote and risk losing the seat. Meanwhile they have no way of getting her off the ballot. It's tactically brilliant. Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters. If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator.
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

27th December 2022, 04:22 PM	#87
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by Suddenly They aren't going to know how important that seat is when these things are set in motion. Every seat matters. I also depends on just how loathsome the GOP candidate is. Which going by the Arizona GOP the sky's the limit. She doesn't need to come anywhere near winning a three way race as much present a guarantee of a GOP loss. Shouldn't that be all that matters? (At least that's what I hear whenever a progressive threatens to not vote Democrat) You are assuming that Sinema would pull more Dem votes than GOP votes, a debatable assumption at best. Non-zero chance a third party run from her would serve as a spoiler against the GOP candidate. Quote: The Democrats chucking a crucial seat to some GOP lizard person because they don't think Sinema is enough on their side and was mean to them would be right on the nose. We can't control how people feel about the candidates. Sinema broke with the party and blocked stuff in really unpopular ways. Fighting for the Carried Interest Loophole and drug company price gouging hurt her badly on approval ratings from the left. She has also been ignoring her constituents and voter groups in Arizona, which is a bad look. Running as an independent in order to avoid a near-certain Democratic primary challenge (which she would lose) is unlikely to make Democrats love her again. If the candidates are selected, and the first polls show Sinema in third place behind the Dem and GOP candidates, why would Dems flip to her?
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

27th December 2022, 04:32 PM	#88
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Originally Posted by Random You are assuming that Sinema would pull more Dem votes than GOP votes, a debatable assumption at best. Non-zero chance a third party run from her would serve as a spoiler against the GOP candidate. We can't control how people feel about the candidates. Sinema broke with the party and blocked stuff in really unpopular ways. Fighting for the Carried Interest Loophole and drug company price gouging hurt her badly on approval ratings from the left. She has also been ignoring her constituents and voter groups in Arizona, which is a bad look. Running as an independent in order to avoid a near-certain Democratic primary challenge (which she would lose) is unlikely to make Democrats love her again. If the candidates are selected, and the first polls show Sinema in third place behind the Dem and GOP candidates, why would Dems flip to her? I'd remind you that Mark Kelly didn't exactly have a blow out win against a candidate who: -Essentially JAQ'd off when talking about the "Great Replacement" theory. -On gun control: "It's gangs. It's people in Chicago, St. Louis shooting each other. Very often, you know, Black people, frankly. And the Democrats don't want to do anything about that." -Wants the federal reserve replaced with bitcoin. -Opposes aid to Ukraine -Wants to privatize social security Thats just the tip of the iceberg, and he received 46.5% of the vote against Mark Kelly. A pretty middle of the road Dem. Its Arizona... Sinema v a real dem candidate v MAGAchud has about a 99% chance of MAGAChud winning. I suppose the DNC can conduct some polls to see and be sure.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Last edited by lobosrul5; 27th December 2022 at 04:33 PM.

27th December 2022, 02:51 PM	#83
Suddenly No Punting Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Not In Follansbee Posts: 5,314	Originally Posted by Stacyhs No. As an Indie, she would avoid being primaried. If the Dem party didn't back her and backed her challenger instead, there's little chance she'd win the nomination. As an Indie, she does have a small but better chance of winning if she can pull votes from, as I said, Indies, non-Maga GOP, and more moderate to conservative Dems. In AZ, voters are roughly divided evenly among the 3 parties. As an indie she's likely unbeatable as long as she agrees to caucus with the Dems. It's a game of chicken. She's always going to be more palatable to Democrats than whatever nightmare wins a GOP primary so the Dems are going to support her rather than split the vote and risk losing the seat. Meanwhile they have no way of getting her off the ballot. It's tactically brilliant.

27th December 2022, 03:22 PM	#85
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 28,611	Originally Posted by Random Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters. If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator. Agreed.

27th December 2022, 03:40 PM	#86
Suddenly No Punting Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Not In Follansbee Posts: 5,314	Originally Posted by Random Nope. She is far too hated in the Democratic party to make it work. In order for a Democrat Senator to win Arizona, you need the complete support of Democrats and enough independents to beat the Republican. Democrats loathe her, and her independent support is also weak. Her numbers are better with the GOP, but that's approval numbers, not likely voters. If control of the Senate came down to Sinema, yeah, Dems might be convinced to come out for her, but the 2024 map looks terrible for Dems. Dems might support Sinema as a 51st sorta Dem Senator. They won't support her as a 47th Dem Senator. They aren't going to know how important that seat is when these things are set in motion. Every seat matters. I also depends on just how loathsome the GOP candidate is. Which going by the Arizona GOP the sky's the limit. She doesn't need to come anywhere near winning a three way race as much present a guarantee of a GOP loss. Shouldn't that be all that matters? (At least that's what I hear whenever a progressive threatens to not vote Democrat) The Democrats chucking a crucial seat to some GOP lizard person because they don't think Sinema is enough on their side and was mean to them would be right on the nose.

27th December 2022, 04:51 PM	#89
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 (snip) Its Arizona... Sinema v a real dem candidate v MAGAchud has about a 99% chance of MAGAChud winning. I suppose the DNC can conduct some polls to see and be sure. Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general. No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run).
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

27th December 2022, 06:20 PM	#90
Resume Troublesome Passenger Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 21,549	Yes, Sinema is toast, unless she invested her grift wisely . . . nope, toast.
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28th December 2022, 09:58 AM	#91
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Originally Posted by Random Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general. No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run). In any actual blue state you'd be spot on. But look at the registration numbers for AZ: Republican 1,436,852 34.67% Independent 1,404,385 33.89% Democratic 1,270,544 30.66% Libertarian 32,148 .78% Dem registration is in... 3rd place! I do think, perhaps, the DNC will need to wait and see what sort of candidate the GOP runs for senate in 2024 before deciding to oppose Sinema or not. If its another awful candidate like Blake Masters then they just might get most of the indy's on their side. But if not, its a lost cause IMO.
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28th December 2022, 11:09 AM	#92
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 In any actual blue state you'd be spot on. But look at the registration numbers for AZ: Republican 1,436,852 34.67% Independent 1,404,385 33.89% Democratic 1,270,544 30.66% Libertarian 32,148 .78% Dem registration is in... 3rd place! I do think, perhaps, the DNC will need to wait and see what sort of candidate the GOP runs for senate in 2024 before deciding to oppose Sinema or not. If its another awful candidate like Blake Masters then they just might get most of the indy's on their side. But if not, its a lost cause IMO. I don't think the DNC gets to decide if other people can try to run for the Democratic nomination...
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

28th December 2022, 11:20 AM	#93
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 35,639	Originally Posted by Random Maybe, but a Sinema vs MAGAchud matchup would probably get you a MAGAchud anyway. That's assuming that a real Dem stays out of it. There will probably be at least two or three willing to enter a primary for the Dem nod with or without the DNCs support. And good luck to the Democratic party operative who tries to convince a million Arizona Dems that they should support Sinema over an actual Democrat. Especially since the real Democrat might get lucky in the general. No, Sinema is toast. The only question is whether she will split the Dem vote or the GOP vote more (assuming she doesn't look at the polls and decide not to run). She sees Bernie Sanders and thinks "I can do that". But Bernie is to the LEFT of the Dems, she's somewhere off in no-woman's-land or lala land. She's definitely not Bernie. She might stand a chance of winning the general election if she runs as a Republican. But she stands no chance of winning the nomination, so it's a moot point.
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28th December 2022, 11:21 AM	#94
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Originally Posted by Random I don't think the DNC gets to decide if other people can try to run for the Democratic nomination... They can put pressure on the AZ Democratic Party to not run a candidate by refusing to put any money into the race. But you are correct, its the AZ Dems who get final say to put forward a candidate in any given race.
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29th December 2022, 02:10 AM	#95
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 35,968	Originally Posted by Trebuchet She sees Bernie Sanders and thinks "I can do that". But Bernie is to the LEFT of the Dems, she's somewhere off in no-woman's-land or lala land. She's definitely not Bernie. She might stand a chance of winning the general election if she runs as a Republican. But she stands no chance of winning the nomination, so it's a moot point. Maybe she thinks that the threat of splitting the vote will be sufficient for the Democrats to comply ?

29th December 2022, 02:19 AM	#96
Gulliver Foyle Muse Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 967	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 They can put pressure on the AZ Democratic Party to not run a candidate by refusing to put any money into the race. But you are correct, its the AZ Dems who get final say to put forward a candidate in any given race. I'd still run an official candidate against her. In this case whoever the party of treason puts up is the devil you know, and you know the old saying.

29th December 2022, 10:02 AM	#97
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle I'd still run an official candidate against her. In this case whoever the party of treason puts up is the devil you know, and you know the old saying. In which case they'll be running against two devil's they know. Originally Posted by The Don Maybe she thinks that the threat of splitting the vote will be sufficient for the Democrats to comply ? Its a calculated gamble by Sinema... she wanted that sweet sweet private equity donor money* and the price she is going to pay is likely to be primary'd in '24. Her best shot at retaining her seat is for the Dems to just not run against her, her second best shot is to come in first in a 3 way race. *https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/how-...tax-break.html Good lord getting rid of that thing was something DONALD TRUMP campaigned on in 2016... he then did absolutely nothing for 4 years as president, but STILL.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	Last edited by lobosrul5; 29th December 2022 at 10:06 AM.

29th December 2022, 11:30 AM	#98
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 In which case they'll be running against two devil's they know. Its a calculated gamble by Sinema... she wanted that sweet sweet private equity donor money* and the price she is going to pay is likely to be primary'd in '24. Her best shot at retaining her seat is for the Dems to just not run against her, her second best shot is to come in first in a 3 way race. *https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/how-...tax-break.html Good lord getting rid of that thing was something DONALD TRUMP campaigned on in 2016... he then did absolutely nothing for 4 years as president, but STILL. It's not just a question of Dems not running against her, they have to actively support her to make the math work out. And they won't. There will be no big volunteer drives, GOTV, door to door canvassing, etc. She will have a big pile of corporate cash, but that gets you employees, not supporters. John McCain's secret sauce was pretty simple. Always vote with the party unless the party was doing something that would be really unpopular back home. Sinema's strategy of always voting with the party unless someone hands her a big bag of wonga is not going to be as successful.
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

29th December 2022, 11:47 AM	#99
thaiboxerken Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 32,473	Running as an independent will only garner her a loss because she isn't popular with anyone, not the Democrats, not the independents, not the Republicans. It's a hail-mary play on her part, but it won't work. Her decisions to vote how her biggest donors told her to vote was political suicide. If she was a Republican, I think it would not have, since Republicans are beholden to the wealthy.
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30th December 2022, 05:32 AM	#100
Tero Master Poster Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: North American prairie Posts: 2,924	Well, someone will run as Democrat. Out here in red states we have good candidates, but if polling shows only 40%, the national democratic funding does not arrive. The money then DOES arrive for the Republican to run a smear candidate.
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30th December 2022, 01:35 PM	#101
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,127	https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race First poll for AZ Senate '24. Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%. So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59. Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters. Sinema takes a bit more from Biden voters than Trump voters.
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30th December 2022, 01:52 PM	#102
Bob001 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: US of A Posts: 16,304	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race First poll for AZ Senate '24. Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%. So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59. .... It's still a little early for predictions. Lake right now is one of the best known political figures in Arizona, probably more so than Gallego. Sometimes on these polls people pick the name they know best. But we don't know how Lake would do in a primary against multiple non-crazy Repubs. And as Lake continues to go to court and lose, she might ultimately self-destruct. She's already wound pretty tight. Sinema could be a spoiler against either party. She could also win a three-way race with as little as 34% of the vote.

30th December 2022, 02:14 PM	#103
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-...az-senate-race First poll for AZ Senate '24. Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%. So, thats the floor... 41% of Arizonan registered voters are totally braindead. Its a race for the other 59. Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters. Sinema takes a bit more from Biden voters than Trump voters. And that's about it for Sinema. As a sitting Senator with near universal name recognition, coming in last place in a three-person poll (not even a close last place either, about a third as much support as either of the other two) in her home state is basically the end. Dropping the Democratic party just means that she will be in checkmate in five moves instead of three.
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!".

30th December 2022, 02:22 PM	#104
Bob001 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: US of A Posts: 16,304	Originally Posted by Random And that's about it for Sinema. As a sitting Senator with near universal name recognition, coming in last place in a three-person poll (not even a close last place either, about a third as much support as either of the other two) in her home state is basically the end. Dropping the Democratic party just means that she will be in checkmate in five moves instead of three. It still comes down to who the other candidates are in two years. Arizona voters have already sent her to the House three times and to the Senate once. I wouldn't write her off yet.

30th December 2022, 02:39 PM	#105
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	Originally Posted by Bob001 It still comes down to who the other candidates are in two years. Arizona voters have already sent her to the House three times and to the Senate once. I wouldn't write her off yet. Nah, she's done for. 13% support might be a good starting place for an unknown politician at the start of a run, but a sitting US Senator with universal name recognition? No, that 13% means something. It means that voters actively do not like her, regardless of who the other candidates are. She isn't the moderate alternative candidate for people who want to "cast a vote against the other guy". She is the candidate people are voting against.
Random Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2001 Posts: 3,556	__________________ The road to Fascism is paved with people saying, "You're overreacting!". Last edited by Random; 30th December 2022 at 02:41 PM.

18th January 2023, 02:53 PM	#106
mikegriffith1 Critical Thinker Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 486	She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here.
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18th January 2023, 03:01 PM	#107
plague311 Great minds think... Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Dakota Posts: 13,707	Originally Posted by mikegriffith1 She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here. cough Meghan McCain cough Glass houses and all.
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18th January 2023, 03:13 PM	#108
thaiboxerken Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 32,473	Originally Posted by mikegriffith1 She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here. What is a liberal extremist?
	__________________ 1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it.

18th January 2023, 03:21 PM	#109
Beelzebuddy Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 9,272	Originally Posted by thaiboxerken What is a liberal extremist? Someone who puts a "we believe in extremism" flag on their front lawn.
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18th January 2023, 07:55 PM	#110
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 28,611	Originally Posted by thaiboxerken What is a liberal extremist? Anyone who isn't a Republican.

18th January 2023, 08:36 PM	#111
TheGoldcountry Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 7,362	Originally Posted by mikegriffith1 She votes liberal about 80% of the time, but I guess that's not good enough for the liberal extremists here. Oh, give me a break. Liz Cheney is a conservative who voted with Trump 92% of the time, and the Republicans wanted to crucify her for suggesting that maybe ransacking the Capitol isn't a wonderful idea. GTFO out of here with the "liberal extremist" BS. Anything left of the ***** Gestapo is "liberal" to MAGA ** heads.
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19th January 2023, 02:40 AM	#112
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 28,611	Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry Oh, give me a break. Liz Cheney is a conservative who voted with Trump 92% of the time, and the Republicans wanted to crucify her for suggesting that maybe ransacking the Capitol isn't a wonderful idea. GTFO out of here with the "liberal extremist" BS. Anything left of the ***** Gestapo is "liberal" to MAGA ** heads. Isn't that the truth!