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Old 26th June 2019, 10:27 AM   #161
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
And the idea that a shortage of builders etc is a good thing strikes me as bizarre since we're supposed to be building tens of thousands of houses a year.

That's like suggesting a shortage of nurses is a Good Thing.

Otherwise known as a bloody stupid idea.
With the EU nurses and builders migrating back home, Brits simply do not want to work in low salaried jobs which are physically demanding.

The Irish who traditionally used to do the building work often worked cash in hand and thus never qualified for mortgages and ended up in low quality housing stock for generations. Brits can see this and steer well clear.


Now that the cheap labour has gone, employers are being forced to put up wages to attract UK workers.
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Old 26th June 2019, 10:29 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
The report you link actually says it did (a bit)

Anyway, in my view it is entirely plausible that if there is free migration from (on balance) low wage countries to higher wage countries then of course allowing it should narrow the gap some. The primary reason many EU nationals came to the UK was a sizeable income bump. I think it would be extraordinary to expect that this had no effect on pay in the relevant jobs.

But 1) it should also mean that prices of the related goods or services should also fall and 2) it should not mean that aggregate wages fall and 3) it seems that none of these effects are anything but small even though the pre-existing differences in wages between the UK and countries that large migration came from are actually rather big.

Personally I think benefits of migration are much bigger than costs and I would have voted for a political party that had a manifesto to increase net immigration to a million rather than one promising to cut it to 100,000, but I would not deny there are any costs.
Ah, ninja-ed. There is a reason the UK has three million free movement EU migrants and other EU countries only have eight-hundred thousand free moving Brits between them.
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Old 26th June 2019, 10:34 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
A certainty in politics you say? And what's more, alleged certainty of outcome in what is clearly the most uncertain of times in UK politics for perhaps 100 years. I think, not!

To repeat (sorry about that!) - if Boris becomes PM (looks highly likely at present ... but almost any surprise could happen yet; especially with Boris!), then it's very likely that he will get no new deal from the EU, and he will as a result be forced to offer the HoC a No Deal Exit ... on all evidence so far, that option would be rejected by MP's (though it could be very close) ... in that case Boris begins to look to the Conservative MP's like an even greater liability and an even bigger embarrassment than Mrs May in her very worst moments ... that may easily lead to a General Election ...

... in that case, Farage has already sworn that he will field a nationwide set of candidates for his Brexit Party.

If you think the Brexit party cannot possibly win, then you are an absolutely awful judge of politics lol!

Farage & his Brexit Party may not be the favourites in a GE, but they already showed that they can count on about 30% of the electorate as absolutely insistent on voting for Farage regardless of any other policies or any other issues at all. That, by any parties standards, is a very big threat indeed ...

... and they do not need anything else at all in a Manifesto. For Farage, the Brexit party, and about 30% of the electorate, this would be a one-issue election.

30% may not be enough to give Farage victory, but he would probably only need to pick up another 6% or 7% (something like that … keep in mind, that would be 6% -7% votes gone from any of the other parties).

Personally as I said above, I think the most likely result would be a narrowish Labour victory, with say a Majority of maybe 15 seats. But another obvious possibility is that Labour and Lib Dem could agree on an anti-Brexit coalition, with their votes added together to give a majority of maybe about 30 or 40.
People will vote very differently in a General Election than in any mid-term or EU one. A large percentage of the Farage vote was a protest vote.

Look what happened in Leicester (???iirc) where that Labour MP was kicked out for perverting justice and a bye-election had to be held. The Brexit Party were so confident it would win, not only did Nigel Farage turn up but Richard Tice did, too. Red faces all round. Nigel did a runner.
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:34 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
People will vote very differently in a General Election than in any mid-term or EU one. A large percentage of the Farage vote was a protest vote.

Look what happened in Leicester (???iirc) where that Labour MP was kicked out for perverting justice and a bye-election had to be held. The Brexit Party were so confident it would win, not only did Nigel Farage turn up but Richard Tice did, too. Red faces all round. Nigel did a runner.

Just re. the by-election (see footnote) ...

In more normal circumstances people certainly do vote differently in both local elections and EU elections vs. how they vote in a General Election ... I was saying exactly that myself some pages back. But these are very far from normal times...

... if anything at all is obvious about the present situation, it is that Farage has a very solid 30% of the UK electorate who will vote for his Brexit party no matter what (they are not interested in anything else, and will vote purely on that one issue to get the UK out of the EU) ...

... in fact most of that 30% are now so enraged that they actually want us to leave with no deal (you hear that over & over again in every interview the media has with UK voters).

So I think it's very likely indeed, and all evidence so far shows, that Farage would almost certainly get about 30% of the vote in a General Election. And he might get the bit extra that he would need, e.g. to 36%) ...

... but nothing is guaranteed here (very far from it in fact), and all sorts of things could yet happen to seriously dent the votes of any of the parties (inc. Farage and his Brexit Party).

I think we are simply in seriously uncharted waters, and none of the parties can be confident at all about how all this mess will turn out.

One thing for sure though (because it's history) Ė 3 years ago before the referendum, most political analysts would have thought it virtually impossible that Farage would have upset the apple cart to the extent that he now has.

Personally I can't stand Farage, and I want a more caring & more equal society in the UK, so I'm horrified at the prospect of Farage and his Brexit Party gaining power in Britain. But I suppose, and I hope, that if Farage did win the most seats in a General Election, then Labour and Lib Dem would immediately form a coalition to stop him.


Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!
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Old 26th June 2019, 12:56 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman View Post
that political correctness is a facade people pay lip service to in public, and make their opinions REALLY known when it suits them.
Of course {modern} political correctness is a facade, it was invented as a strawman for the self labeled "right" leaning USA to use against what they considered to be their enemies i.e. those to the left of themselves.
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Old 26th June 2019, 01:21 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
if Boris becomes PM (looks highly likely at present ... but almost any surprise could happen yet; especially with Boris!), then it's very likely that he will get no new deal from the EU, and he will as a result be forced to offer the HoC a No Deal Exit ... on all evidence so far, that option would be rejected by MP's (though it could be very close) ... in that case Boris begins to look to the Conservative MP's like an even greater liability and an even bigger embarrassment than Mrs May in her very worst moments ... that may easily lead to a General Election ...
I think you have that wrong. BJ will not secure any concessions from the EU, and he will have the UK leave on no deal.

MPs do not have to agree with this or vote for it and they can not stop it either. It is a big risk and may ultimately undo Boris, but not for at least two years I think.

And if he and everyone know one thing by now, it is that you have to do something Theresa May did not do. Repeating what she did is Einstein's definition of insanity.

(What stops this is enough Tory MPs being willing to bring the government down. How likely that is is left as an exercise for the reader)

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Old 26th June 2019, 01:54 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Just re. the by-election (see footnote) ...

In more normal circumstances people certainly do vote differently in both local elections and EU elections vs. how they vote in a General Election ... I was saying exactly that myself some pages back. But these are very far from normal times...

... if anything at all is obvious about the present situation, it is that Farage has a very solid 30% of the UK electorate who will vote for his Brexit party no matter what (they are not interested in anything else, and will vote purely on that one issue to get the UK out of the EU) ...

... in fact most of that 30% are now so enraged that they actually want us to leave with no deal (you hear that over & over again in every interview the media has with UK voters).

So I think it's very likely indeed, and all evidence so far shows, that Farage would almost certainly get about 30% of the vote in a General Election. And he might get the bit extra that he would need, e.g. to 36%) ...

... but nothing is guaranteed here (very far from it in fact), and all sorts of things could yet happen to seriously dent the votes of any of the parties (inc. Farage and his Brexit Party).

I think we are simply in seriously uncharted waters, and none of the parties can be confident at all about how all this mess will turn out.

One thing for sure though (because it's history) Ė 3 years ago before the referendum, most political analysts would have thought it virtually impossible that Farage would have upset the apple cart to the extent that he now has.

Personally I can't stand Farage, and I want a more caring & more equal society in the UK, so I'm horrified at the prospect of Farage and his Brexit Party gaining power in Britain. But I suppose, and I hope, that if Farage did win the most seats in a General Election, then Labour and Lib Dem would immediately form a coalition to stop him.


Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!
That's one way to look at it. Another is that in a strongly leave constituency against a remain labour candidate and in a by election which attracts a protest vote, Farage failed yet again
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Old 26th June 2019, 04:50 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Seriously.
Daft as many people in this country are, we won't be getting Farage as PM.

No, but he might hold enough Tory votes before a GE, or seats afterwards to leverage considerable influence, especially in the likelihood or event of another hung Parliament. We might find ourselves thinking back fondly to when the DUP had May by the short and curlies.
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Old 26th June 2019, 04:59 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
I think you have that wrong. BJ will not secure any concessions from the EU, and he will have the UK leave on no deal.

MPs do not have to agree with this or vote for it and they can not stop it either. It is a big risk and may ultimately undo Boris, but not for at least two years I think.

And if he and everyone know one thing by now, it is that you have to do something Theresa May did not do. Repeating what she did is Einstein's definition of insanity.

(What stops this is enough Tory MPs being willing to bring the government down. How likely that is is left as an exercise for the reader)

Boris has made sure that if there is one group of people he has not an ounce of good will with, it is the EU.
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Old 26th June 2019, 09:26 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Will you be providing a citation for this claim?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domest...dom#Prevalence
Quote:
According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) about 4.2% of men and 7.9 % of women suffer domestic abuse in the UK during 2018[10]. This equates to about 685,000 male victims and 1,300,000 women.
A bit over half as likely. Still, statistics don't tell you much about a particular incident. I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he was the aggressor here, given that she was the one who was yelling.
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:29 PM   #171
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Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility

Quote:
Jeremy Hunt's promises in his race to be the next Conservative Party leader would cost between £37-65bn, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)

Quote:
The IFS has also analysed Mr Hunt's rival Boris Johnson's tax plan and said they would cost "many billions" and benefit the wealthy the most.
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:56 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Seriously.

Daft as many people in this country are, we won't be getting Farage as PM.
No but imagine if whatever he is calling his party this week had say just 10 MPs....
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Old 26th June 2019, 11:59 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
I don't have any clear idea of what Farage would do if his Brexit party did win a GE in Britain, i.e. whether he'd actually step down as head of that Party and let another of it's MP's take over as PM.



But many people who have worked with Boris Johnson, both within the Conservative party and before that when Boris was editor of the Spectator, say Boris's method of doing a job is not to do it himself but instead to appoint other people to do it for him. Also, whilst I'm bing unkind/unfair to Boris - I don't know how many people have checked his actual name, but its rather showy/flamboyant in parts, i.e. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson .
Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:10 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)
What is amazing, is how they harp on about having to leave the EU because it is undemocratic not to do, we have to deliver what we told the nation we would in our manifesto all that malarkey but are quite happy to rip up the manifesto they were elected on other points. You'd almost think there wasn't a principle....
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:16 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Yep. And the only way the Brexit party will even stand in the next GE (assuming it's before Brexit day) is if there is any doubt about whether the UK is actually going to leave. Johnson knows this and will do anything to ensure we do leave.

How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

He is extremely unlikely to get any better deal from the EU (or even any different deal at all). And all previous votes in the HoC say he will not be able to get MP's to vote for a "No Deal" exit either ....

... so how on earth is he going to "ensure we do leave"?

So far, all the evidence is that Boris will NOT be able to get the UK to leave.

We've seen Boris in several interviews now (I just posted one above, with Laura Kuenssberg from the BBC), and he was 100% totally incapable of explaining any plan at all of how he was going to get the EU to make any more concessions …. his “plan” is apparently (according to Boris himself) to just bluff his way through and hope that his non-existent "charm" as an amiable buffoon persuades the EU to do what they have consistently insisted they will not do, and where they already showed they will not do it when Mrs May tried to re-negociate for a better deal.


Well, stranger things have happened in politics, and some catrastrophic worldwide event may change everything for everyone. But on the face of things it's cloud cuckoo land to think that Boris will achieve anything better at all from either the EU or from a vote amongst MPs in the HoC.

Last edited by IanS; 27th June 2019 at 12:17 AM.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:41 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's one way to look at it. Another is that in a strongly leave constituency against a remain labour candidate and in a by election which attracts a protest vote, Farage failed yet again

Well it's an objective factual way to look at it - the fact is that Brexit did get a hell of lot of votes in that by-election. And they got more votes than any other party in the recent EU elections. And this is a party that did not even exist until just a few months ago.

Until David Cameron made the disastrous decision to offer the UK public a referendum on leaving the EU, if anyone had said that in a matter of just weeks Farage would suddenly create a right-wing party that was really a barely concealed version of something close to the BNP or National Front, and that it would immediately beat the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems to get more votes than any of them in nationwide election, then they would have been regarded as crazy and wildly into the area of conspiracy theories to suggest such a thing ... but, the fact is, that has indeed what has actually happened.

I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:48 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?
By getting nothing done, it is the default outcome.

Quote:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-cont...=EN#d1e32-13-1
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:54 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
The "Blairite" Labour Party is the only party that has beaten the Tories in a general election in the last 30 years. The last eleven general elections were won by Tories eight times and Tony Blair three times. James Callaghan, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn were all losers. I know Tony Blair did some bad things during his presidency prime ministership including climbing inside GW Bush's bottom but the Blairites were able to make Labour electable.
Iím glad someone said this. The only thing you can do in opposition as far as too many Labour (and Labor in Australia) supporters are concerned is to remain ideological pure. And unelectable. As I think will be Corbynís fate, even against an abysmal opponent.

For all of Blairís (and Hawkeís and Keatingís) faults, he led, and led pretty well.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:57 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Well it's an objective factual way to look at it - the fact is that Brexit did get a hell of lot of votes in that by-election. And they got more votes than any other party in the recent EU elections. And this is a party that did not even exist until just a few months ago.

Until David Cameron made the disastrous decision to offer the UK public a referendum on leaving the EU, if anyone had said that in a matter of just weeks Farage would suddenly create a right-wing party that was really a barely concealed version of something close to the BNP or National Front, and that it would immediately beat the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems to get more votes than any of them in nationwide election, then they would have been regarded as crazy and wildly into the area of conspiracy theories to suggest such a thing ... but, the fact is, that has indeed what has actually happened.

I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).
They both are taking it very seriously.

The Conservatives seem determined to become the Brexit Party.

The Labour Party is typically bipolar and isn't entirely sure whether to become a clearly defined opposition to the Brexit Party (in line with the views of 75%+ of its supporters) or, if Jeremy Corbyn has his way, to try and persuade Brexit Party supporters to vote Labour (a fool's errand IMO).
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:26 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Farage & his Brexit Party may not be the favourites in a GE, but they already showed that they can count on about 30% of the electorate as absolutely insistent on voting for Farage regardless of any other policies or any other issues at all. That, by any parties standards, is a very big threat indeed ...
They achieved 31.6% in the EU election, on a turnout of 36%.

They will not achieve anywhere near that in a general, where turnout tends to be 65-70%.

Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!
As The Don says, a by election in one of the more staunchly Leave constituencies in the country, and they failed to win at a point where Brexit fever is rather high.

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
No, but he might hold enough Tory votes before a GE, or seats afterwards to leverage considerable influence, especially in the likelihood or event of another hung Parliament. We might find ourselves thinking back fondly to when the DUP had May by the short and curlies.
The Brexit party will suck votes from the Tories far more than they will from Labour.

This does not mean those Tory seats go Brexit, it means those Tory seats go Labour or Lib Dem.

Labour will not form a deal with Farage.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
No but imagine if whatever he is calling his party this week had say just 10 MPs....
Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:27 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)
Boris is the epitome of the useful idiot.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:32 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domest...dom#Prevalence


A bit over half as likely. Still, statistics don't tell you much about a particular incident. I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he was the aggressor here, given that she was the one who was yelling.
Isn't one of the things she yelled "Get off me"? That would tend to make me think he was the aggressor rather than her, but I wasn't there.

However, tonight I will be attending a function at which Nigel Farage will also be present, no doubt clutching a pint of beer. My wife was insistent that I should punch him or throw a milkshake over him - I said if I did see him, which is unlikely, I would probably just ignore him, but she then said that that was how we got in this nightmare in the first place.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:38 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.
IMO people who support the Brexit Party are not big on policy on any subject other than Brexit. The absence of any other policies, or having unacceptable or unworkable policies in other areas will only have an effect at the margin of Brexit Party support.

I think it all comes down to the Brexit policy on which the Conservative Party fights the next election. If the next general election is before 31 October and the Conservative Party is committed to a no-deal Brexit then I think the Brexit Party is a busted flush. If the next general election is after a 31 October no-deal Brexit then again, the Brexit Party doesn't really have a raison d'etre (unless the no deal results in frantic backpedalling from the government - something I don't envisage).

If Brexit is further delayed then perhaps the Brexit Party will still be electorally relevant. I'm not sure about Brexit with a deal. My gut says that leaving with Theresa May's deal will strike a blow against the Brexit Party but that there may still be considerable residual support.

As far as a general election goes, I think it's difficult to call. A quick election while Boris is still in a honeymoon period, promising no-deal and the Conservative Party having enjoyed wall-to-wall coverage for weeks against a pro-Brexit Labour Party with Jeremy Corbyn in charge would be a different matter than one against a Labour Party with a well defined Remain message and a charismatic (or at least effective) leader.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:50 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If the next general election is before 31 October
Is this even possible? Parliament reconvenes September 5th. If it confirms BJ as PM on that day, he calls an early election and secures the needed votes, that's a whooping 8 weeks for all the necessary formalities about the election.

A typical election campaign is half that and calling an early election on the day you're confirmed as PM sounds like a risky strategy to me. Even for BJ. It might be a way to secure another Brexit extension with the EU for a couple of months, but BJ already called Brexit day to be October 31st, come hell or high water.

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Old 27th June 2019, 01:57 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is this even possible? Parliament reconvenes September 5th. If it confirms BJ as PM on that day, he calls an early election and secures the needed votes, that's a whooping 8 weeks for all the necessary formalities about the election.

A typical election campaign is half that and calling an early election on the day you're confirmed as PM sounds like a risky strategy to me. Even for BJ. It might be a way to secure another Brexit extension with the EU for a couple of months, but BJ already called Brexit day to be October 31st, come hell or high water.

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31 October is very unlikely, but still possible AFAIK.

IMO Boris stands to gain the most from a hurried election campaign, he already has good brand recognition, the Conservatives have had plenty of media coverage, Labour will be all over the place and it gives Parliament little or no time to stop a no-deal Brexit. It also gives him the minimum amount of time for him to do or say something fatal to the Tories' electoral prospects.
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Old 27th June 2019, 02:27 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO people who support the Brexit Party are not big on policy on any subject other than Brexit. The absence of any other policies, or having unacceptable or unworkable policies in other areas will only have an effect at the margin of Brexit Party support.
That's probably a sizeable chunk of their support, but I don't expect that lot to ever be convinced otherwise.
There is a "sane" minority that a nonsense manifesto will send them back to their party. It's a GE, so more than just Brexit has an influence.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think it all comes down to the Brexit policy on which the Conservative Party fights the next election. If the next general election is before 31 October and the Conservative Party is committed to a no-deal Brexit then I think the Brexit Party is a busted flush. If the next general election is after a 31 October no-deal Brexit then again, the Brexit Party doesn't really have a raison d'etre (unless the no deal results in frantic backpedalling from the government - something I don't envisage).
There will be an election before a No Deal exit.
Most likely the exit will be postponed to allow for the election, something I expect the EU will allow in the hopes that it will put this crapfest behind us.

Neither of the current candidates for PM has the courage of their convictions to do otherwise.

On that basis, the Faragists will be standing, but the only result of that is a knackering of the Tory support.
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Old 27th June 2019, 02:35 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
There will be an election before a No Deal exit.
Most likely the exit will be postponed to allow for the election, something I expect the EU will allow in the hopes that it will put this crapfest behind us.

Neither of the current candidates for PM has the courage of their convictions to do otherwise.

On that basis, the Faragists will be standing, but the only result of that is a knackering of the Tory support.
No deal is still the default and it's becoming more urgent and important for the Conservatives to deliver a no-deal to keep their membership happy.

Parliament would need to take decisive action to stop it - I'm not sure that there are enough Tory "rebels" to counteract the Labour Brexiteers.
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Old 27th June 2019, 03:41 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).
It was Cameron taking Farage seriously that got us in to this mess.
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Old 27th June 2019, 04:34 AM   #189
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Vixen

Referring to your question re Jeremy Hunt up thread, the answer is, no, I do not agree with much of what he says, but I disagree with less of what he says than what Boris says ... ... well, it's something like that!

That is flippant, but I'm serious about voting for whatever is the alternative choice to Boris.
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Old 27th June 2019, 07:19 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.
I just call him The Pin„ta of Lies


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Old 27th June 2019, 07:35 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
They achieved 31.6% in the EU election, on a turnout of 36%.

They will not achieve anywhere near that in a general, where turnout tends to be 65-70%.
Agreed, Brexit Party supporters are highly energised and hopefully it won't pick up more casual voters.

Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
As The Don says, a by election in one of the more staunchly Leave constituencies in the country, and they failed to win at a point where Brexit fever is rather high.
Yep


Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
The Brexit party will suck votes from the Tories far more than they will from Labour.

This does not mean those Tory seats go Brexit, it means those Tory seats go Labour or Lib Dem.

Labour will not form a deal with Farage.

Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.
Pre-Election Farage would be in a strong position to deal in exchange for not standing in likely Tory win seats for exactly this reason. In addition we shouldn't write off the opposition's ability to shoot themselves in the foot, be it by Labour fence sitting or splitting the pro-Remain vote three ways (shades of the 80's).

And despite all the reasons Farage shouldn't win any seats I think we discount his ability to make turkeys vote for Christmas at our own risk.
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Old 27th June 2019, 07:43 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No deal is still the default and it's becoming more urgent and important for the Conservatives to deliver a no-deal to keep their membership happy.

Parliament would need to take decisive action to stop it - I'm not sure that there are enough Tory "rebels" to counteract the Labour Brexiteers.
Can't remember if I've brough this bit up here before or not.
Anyway, March was bad enough, with lots of companies buying up warehouse capacity to stock up in case of a No Deal throughly disrupting their networks.

All that capacity has gone now, and any attempt to do the same thing for an October departure will fail as all that capacity is booked up well in advance as it is the run up to Christmas.

Do you seriously think a majority of MPs will want to be responsible for screwing up everyone's Christmas?

When the shops empty in November, and Amazon is marking everything as "currently not available" I doubt people will be so forgiving.

No, if it comes to it they'll force an election rather than have to face one after the fall out hits.
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Old 27th June 2019, 07:47 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Pre-Election Farage would be in a strong position to deal in exchange for not standing in likely Tory win seats for exactly this reason. In addition we shouldn't write off the opposition's ability to shoot themselves in the foot, be it by Labour fence sitting or splitting the pro-Remain vote three ways (shades of the 80's).

And despite all the reasons Farage shouldn't win any seats I think we discount his ability to make turkeys vote for Christmas at our own risk.
But that leaves the Faragists standing in non-Tory seats (splitting the Tory vote). There is a chunk of Labour voters who are pro-Leave, but they are dwarfed by the Tory voters. Don't make Corbyn's mistake of assuming a pro-Leave constituency means that most Labour voters there are pro-Leave.

In the current climate I do think Farage will win seats. I just don't think it'll be more than a score, and will be almost entirely from the Tories. I think the main result of a Brexit Party standing is an increase in Lib Dem and Labour seats, just by the nature of FPTP.
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:14 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

He is extremely unlikely to get any better deal from the EU (or even any different deal at all). And all previous votes in the HoC say he will not be able to get MP's to vote for a "No Deal" exit either ....
But he does not have to get them to, he just needs nothing to happen. Can they force him to extend brexit again?
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:43 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
By getting nothing done, it is the default outcome.

You are talking about what has been called the "Nuclear Option", which was also threatened by Dominic Raab until he was ousted from the PM race. See the following from the New Statesman and from the Guardian, which together explains that position in some detail -

https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...no-deal-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...deal-brexit-pm

Here is some more with discusssion with a view from inside the HoC from both Labour and Conservative front bench spokesmen -

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit


The fact is it would be practically impossible for Boris (or any PM) to refuse to let MPs vote by either proroguing Parliament + refusing any time for any opposition votes + somehow preventing a Vote of No Confidence in the Tory Government (or any other similar artifice). In addition to which, the Speaker (John Berkow) has to agree to let the PM actually do any of that … and according all known reports and all previous precedent, the Speaker will certainly not allow that.

Finally, here is the detail of the legal position if Boris were so 100% reckless and/or insane as to ask/demand the Queen to Prorogue the Parliament -

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/...o-deal-brexit/

In short – I don't think any political analyst (nor any legal anayst following the above) think it's a realistic opposition for Boris to attempt to force a No Deal exit by running down the clock so as to exclude MPs in the HoC from any vote on the issue.

Last edited by IanS; 27th June 2019 at 08:45 AM.
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:58 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
You are talking about what has been called the "Nuclear Option", which was also threatened by Dominic Raab until he was ousted from the PM race. See the following from the New Statesman and from the Guardian, which together explains that position in some detail -
But it isn't like their votes are binding on anything anyway, what would a vote to refuse to leave with no deal actually do? How will parliament negotiate with the Eu when I thought that when through the PM?

So they get a vote, what would they be voting for that would be binding on Boris that would prevent this?
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:02 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
I don't think any political analyst (nor any legal anayst following the above) think it's a realistic opposition for Boris to attempt to force a No Deal exit
Understood, and the bookies' odds of it are around 3/1 (25%)

I disagree and think it is significantly more likely than that too.

Last edited by Francesca R; 27th June 2019 at 10:11 AM.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:58 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
However, tonight I will be attending a function at which Nigel Farage will also be present, no doubt clutching a pint of beer. My wife was insistent that I should punch him or throw a milkshake over him - I said if I did see him, which is unlikely, I would probably just ignore him, but she then said that that was how we got in this nightmare in the first place.
£350 fine appears par for a chucking milkshakes. I'll chip in £100.
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Old 27th June 2019, 02:30 PM   #199
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The next Prime Minister will be chosen by 0.3% of the population who are members of the fourth (or fifth) most popular party in the country, so he can railroad through the No Deal Brexit that he said would never happen back in 2016.

Tell me again how Remainers hate democracy
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Old 27th June 2019, 05:00 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.
He went to Eton on a full scholarship so isn't that posh.
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