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Old 6th August 2019, 12:29 AM   #161
GlennB
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sheesh, you'll have plenty of room on the plane - every Pom I know is trying to figure how to get out.

PLENTY OF JOBS IN NZ, PEOPLE!!
Seriously, where are all the Pom refugees planning to go? Work permits, immigration assessments, health provision and (in our case) frozen pensions outside the EU ... so many issues to deal with.
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Old 6th August 2019, 12:46 AM   #162
The Don
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Seriously, where are all the Pom refugees planning to go? Work permits, immigration assessments, health provision and (in our case) frozen pensions outside the EU ... so many issues to deal with.
True, Mrs Don and I are in our mid-50s and although reasonably well qualified and with some relevant technical skills, aren't really the kinds of people that NZ, or Oz are really looking for - ideally we only plan to work for another 5-10 years.

Our pre-referendum plan had been to retire to somewhere a little warmer in Europe (maybe somewhere near Lake Annecy) but that's likely not an option any more. Even if the issues of residency and healthcare can be addressed, the 30% drop in the value of the pound since the referendum vote means that it's simply not affordable any longer.

Mrs Don is a US citizen and I suppose we could move to the States but then again, the costs of healthcare and the drop in the value of the pound makes this unaffordable too.

I'm reminded of the people in Pretoria who retired on fixed incomes to nice apartments in the centre around 20 years ago. Since then the neighbourhoods have changed dramatically, but they're unable to afford to move they're trapped.
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Old 6th August 2019, 12:47 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
No

As I understand it there are 3 things which drive the timetable:
  • votes of no confidence and the 2 weeks required between them
  • "wash-up" session to clear Parliamentary business probably 1 -2 weeks
  • election campaign IIRC minimum of 5 weeks

If Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister he controls the timetable, and an election before 31st October is difficult. If he was trolling then call it for the 31st; polls close 10pm, leave EU 11pm.
By called I mean it will be scheduled to be held at a certain date in the future. This is entirely possible given the time available. There is no realistic prospect to hold the election before Brexit day though, that is painfully true. If BJ fully cooperated and the vote of no confidence was called on September 5th, it's deep in "maybe" territory.

Quote:
Parliament does not get to ask for an extension; it has to be the Government, which is why who is Prime Minister is so critical. It is far easier for Parliament to stop the Government doing things than to force them to do something specific - that would normally involve changing the Prime Minister.
Man, the first episode of season 4 is going to be a blast. I can't wait for the Red Wedding.

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Old 6th August 2019, 12:51 AM   #164
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Interesting contrast between the UK governments opinion regarding Brexit (as expressed by Dominic Raab):

Quote:
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, will begin a tour of North America on Tuesday as part of a bid to "fire up" the UK's trade relationships with countries outside the EU.

He will visit Canada, the US and Mexico.

Mr Raab said the foreign ministers he saw at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Thailand last week expressed a "consistent warmth" for the UK and a "desire to work more closely with us".
And a rather more downbeat assessment from the US:

Quote:
However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, has said he does not believe the UK will manage to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."
IOW, the UK is simply going to have a choice between KY-Jelly or chilli sauce.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809
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Old 6th August 2019, 12:53 AM   #165
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An indication as to one of the effects of Brexit, currently whisky needs to be aged for a minimum of three years. There are indications that one of the requirements of a UK/US trade deal is that this requirement is dropped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-492...aste-of-whisky

Let the race to the bottom commence
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:06 AM   #166
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

"The EU has said there is no basis for any further Brexit talks while the UK continues to insist on making changes to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.
EU negotiators told European diplomats changes suggested by the new UK government, such as scrapping the Irish border backstop, were unacceptable."

It is still May's deal or no deal according to the EU.
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:31 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

"The EU has said there is no basis for any further Brexit talks while the UK continues to insist on making changes to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.
EU negotiators told European diplomats changes suggested by the new UK government, such as scrapping the Irish border backstop, were unacceptable."

It is still May's deal or no deal according to the EU.
Given that the red lines haven't been removed, and if anything have been strengthened, is this any surprise at all ?
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:42 AM   #168
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No 10 insists EU must 'change stance'

Quote:
The government has rejected claims it is unwilling to negotiate with the EU and wants talks to fail to allow a no-deal Brexit.

It comes after the EU said UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from Theresa May's deal were unacceptable.

EU negotiators told European diplomats there was currently no basis for "meaningful discussions" and talks were back where they were three years ago.

Downing Street said the EU needed to "change its stance".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

Important phrase there "talks were back where they were three years ago"
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:51 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
The bottom line? (With the meat in bold)...


Over the weekend, it became clear he believes that Johnson could simply refuse to resign in the event of losing a no-confidence motion and schedule an general election for November – after leaving the EU at the end of October.
It's not quite that simple:
"Dominic Cummings is wrong: MPs can stop ‘no deal’"

"Boris Johnson’s top aide says the prime minister can delay an election until after we’ve crashed out, even if he loses a vote of confidence, according to the Sunday Telegraph. That’s not quite true.

We do not live in a dictatorship. MPs will have to do a lot of heavy lifting when they get back from their holidays on September 3. But if they want to stop “no deal”, they can. "

https://infacts.org/dominic-cummings...-stop-no-deal/

Full article worth a read.
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:57 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I have. It's nice to see Brexiters involved in so many of them. Heartwarming.
One of our London clients recently describes their plans as "Belfast in August '69 meets Katrina". Optimistic bunch...
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:59 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Can BJ do that? Ignoring a vote of no confidence by Parliament seems like something out of 1640s.

McHrozni
Yes, but it would precipitate a constitutional crisis (violation of parliamentary supremacy) and lead to major civil unrest.

Somewhat like fifty years ago...
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Old 6th August 2019, 02:04 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
An indication as to one of the effects of Brexit, currently whisky needs to be aged for a minimum of three years. There are indications that one of the requirements of a UK/US trade deal is that this requirement is dropped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-492...aste-of-whisky

Let the race to the bottom commence
Don't worry, that won't effect the real thing.
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Old 6th August 2019, 02:12 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Yes, but it would precipitate a constitutional crisis (violation of parliamentary supremacy) and lead to major civil unrest.
Does it come with mandatory jail time for the perpetrator, or something of that nature?

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Old 6th August 2019, 02:20 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
No 10 insists EU must 'change stance'



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

Important phrase there "talks were back where they were three years ago"
Canute (Cnut) insists that tide must "change stance"......


Yes I realise that he was demonstrating that his power was limited, not that he really thought he could turn back the tide - in this case however the Brexiteers are sitting there in the expectation that the tide will turn back....
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Old 6th August 2019, 05:17 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
No 10 insists EU must 'change stance'

Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
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Old 6th August 2019, 05:20 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
Well, kinda it is, if you're the one with all the guns and stuff.
If you're the one that gets shafted it's more of a suicide note.

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Old 6th August 2019, 05:21 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
It's the Violet Elizabeth Bott negotiation strategy

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I AGREE
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Old 6th August 2019, 05:35 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
Remember you are dealing with someone whose class means they never have to hear " no".
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Old 6th August 2019, 05:37 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Remember you are dealing with someone whose social class means they never have to hear " no".
FTFY just in case anyone misinterpreted it as you suggesting that Boris Johnson was such a classy person, people find it hard to say no to.
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Old 6th August 2019, 05:39 AM   #180
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Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's all the EU's fault that they won't agree to our unreasonable demands

Quote:
Cabinet minister Michael Gove says the EU "seem to be refusing to negotiate with the UK" over a new Brexit deal.

Mr Gove, who is responsible for no-deal planning, said he was "deeply saddened" that Brussels was, in his words, saying "no, we don't want to talk."

It comes after the EU said UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from Theresa May's deal were unacceptable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49251257
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Old 6th August 2019, 06:26 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Well, kinda it is, if you're the one with all the guns and stuff.
If you're the one that gets shafted it's more of a suicide note.

McHrozni
Gunboat diplomacy, when the other side has the gunboats...
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Old 6th August 2019, 07:30 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's all the EU's fault that they won't agree to our unreasonable demands

Quote:
Cabinet minister Michael Gove says the EU "seem to be refusing to negotiate with the UK" over a new Brexit deal.

Mr Gove, who is responsible for no-deal planning, said he was "deeply saddened" that Brussels was, in his words, saying "no, we don't want to talk."

It comes after the EU said UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from Theresa May's deal were unacceptable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49251257

Yes, that’s the exact comment that led to my earlier post. It’s the UK side who are refusing to negotiate.
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Old 6th August 2019, 08:19 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No good attempting to blame him. Davis didn't even want to agree to allow the EU to separate the 'divorce deal' from the 'future trade deal'. If he'd been allowed by May to negotiate the way he wanted (more like Boris is attempting to now) then we'd never have had May's pathetic deal in the first place and we wouldn't have wasted almost two years...
Of course you would have looked the same. Either the UK was going to keep following UK rules and standards or it was going to have borders and checkpoint to allow each side to enact and enforce it’s own rules. This isn’t an EU thing, it’s how international relations work and it doesn’t matter who you try to make a deal with the requirement will be the same.
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Old 6th August 2019, 08:24 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Either the UK was going to keep following UK EU rules and standards or it was going to have borders and checkpoint to allow each side to enact and enforce it’s own rules.
I presume the above is what you meant. But, of course, there's a third option: the EU, recognising the innate superiority of the English (I understand some of the UK is not English, but in this context they don't really matter), chooses to adopt UK standards for everything. This would be a superb deal for Britain, requiring no border infrastructure whatsoever. Except for immigration, of course, but no doubt we could demand the EU find a way to put border infrastructure in place to deal with that, while still maintaining no border infrastructure at the same time.

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Old 6th August 2019, 09:35 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I presume the above is what you meant. But, of course, there's a third option: the EU, recognising the innate superiority of the English (I understand some of the UK is not English, but in this context they don't really matter), chooses to adopt UK standards for everything. This would be a superb deal for Britain, requiring no border infrastructure whatsoever. Except for immigration, of course, but no doubt we could demand the EU find a way to put border infrastructure in place to deal with that, while still maintaining no border infrastructure at the same time.

Dave
The way that immigration would work is that Ireland would act as the UK's border and adopt the new UK immigration rules for EU arrivals into Ireland. This would mean that they would give up one of the four freedoms but the EU will be happy to allow them to do so and for Ireland it would be a price worth paying.

Either that or Ireland could leave the EU on England's deal. After all it'll be all of the benefits and none of the responsibilities of EU membership.

Last edited by The Don; 6th August 2019 at 09:38 AM.
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Old 6th August 2019, 09:39 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Either that or Ireland could leave the EU on England's deal. After all it'll be all of the benefits and none of the responsibilities of EU membership.
Simplest of all would be Ireland just voluntarily re-joining the UK. Once we've reaped all the benefits of non-membership they'll be able to come to the sunlit uplands with us. I can't see anybody objecting to that.

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Old 6th August 2019, 09:43 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Simplest of all would be Ireland just voluntarily re-joining the UK. Once we've reaped all the benefits of non-membership they'll be able to come to the sunlit uplands with us. I can't see anybody objecting to that.

Dave
D'oh ! Of course that's the most straightforward solution. Silly me for not seeing that......

Edited to add....

I mean I suppose a few republicans, Irish nationalists and Catholics could object but no member of any of those groups is entirely human and can be safely ignored....

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Old 6th August 2019, 10:02 AM   #188
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It's a brilliant idea. Just because 90% of Ireland wants to stay in the EU doesn't mean they would mind getting dragged out into Brexit chaos along with the UK just to make things simpler for the British government who had no plan for how this could work.

Ireland always stands ready to make any sacrifice to help it's old pal Britain. They need only ask. Nothing is too much.
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:03 AM   #189
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One good thing about Brexit is it's pretty much eliminated all support for Ireland/France/<INSERT COUNTRY HERE> leaving the EU.
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:14 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
One good thing about Brexit is it's pretty much eliminated all support for Ireland/France/<INSERT COUNTRY HERE> leaving the EU.
We're taking one for the team. Oh, boy. Some day we're going to be a stark warning from history. Can we fast forward to the bit where I can apply for my Scottish passport?
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:15 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
One good thing about Brexit is it's pretty much eliminated all support for Ireland/France/<INSERT COUNTRY HERE> leaving the EU.
It massacred Czech leavers and flipped entire party from EU-sceptic position.
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:17 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
We're taking one for the team. Oh, boy. Some day we're going to be a stark warning from history. Can we fast forward to the bit where I can apply for my Scottish passport?
No Irish ancestors? Pity...
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:37 AM   #193
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You guys are joking, but that is essentially how it worked on Ireland, so far.
Ireland kept its immigration laws aligned with the UK's so that the common travel area could exist. It kept standards aligned with the UK, eg by adopting UK electrical plugs.
Ireland joined the EU when the UK did.
It did all that without there being any kind of formal agreement that could be taken to court.
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Old 6th August 2019, 10:56 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's sadly ironic that the parts of the country which voted Leave are the ones being hit hardest by the implications of their actions.
Yes, at times it seems ironic, at other times, one thinks, "**** 'em."
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Old 6th August 2019, 11:17 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Let's see, about UK£99 billion in costs and UK£28 billion in debt.
2,000,000 houses destroyed, sixty thousand dead and eighty seven thousand seriously injured (and that's just the Blitz).

Sounds about right...
Houses destroyed or damaged. But, yeah, the idea that the Blitz was some sort of idyllic community-binding nirvana is bollocks. "Blitz spirit" is a retrospective sheen that glosses over just how crap a time it was.
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Old 6th August 2019, 11:31 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
You guys are joking, but that is essentially how it worked on Ireland, so far.
Ireland kept its immigration laws aligned with the UK's so that the common travel area could exist. It kept standards aligned with the UK, eg by adopting UK electrical plugs.
Ireland joined the EU when the UK did.
It did all that without there being any kind of formal agreement that could be taken to court.
Which is why ireland should be forced to leave the Eu with the UK, its only fair after all. That would get rid of the whole irish border question.
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Old 6th August 2019, 12:10 PM   #197
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Quote:
Brexit will bring “a huge series of upsides” for the UK in international trade, Dominic Raab has promised at the start of a symbolically important trip to North America, during which he will press the White House about the need for a rapid deal.

The foreign secretary is expected to meet the US vice-president, Mike Pence, in Washington late on Tuesday, and to hold talks with his counterpart, Mike Pompeo, on Wednesday. He will then travel to Mexico.

Raab, a die-hard leave supporter, will be conscious of the need for positive words from Washington on a quick post-Brexit trade deal as a counterpoint to warnings over the likely economic impact on the UK of a no-deal departure from the EU.

...

“I’m pleased to be able to say in Canada that, for the UK, Brexit is not just about risk management, although that’s important and I wouldn’t want to be glib or not take that very seriously. But it is also – and our prime minister has been very clear about that – about grasping the enormous opportunities of our two countries.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-for-uk-trade

He just can't wait for American goods to flood into the British market, completely nullifying whatever benefit Brexit would offer British manufacturing, agricultural and fishing industries. No doubt the Americans want to offload the crap they can't sell to China anymore.
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Old 6th August 2019, 12:17 PM   #198
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Apparently a post-Brexit deal between the UK and the US might end the requirement for a product labelled 'whisky' or 'whiskey' to be aged for a minimum of three years and open the way for younger products onto the market.
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Old 6th August 2019, 01:26 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
An indication as to one of the effects of Brexit, currently whisky needs to be aged for a minimum of three years. There are indications that one of the requirements of a UK/US trade deal is that this requirement is dropped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-492...aste-of-whisky

Let the race to the bottom commence
Don't be so pessimistic, it's all going to be fine:

It's going to be fine:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...-odds-Boris-UK

Quote:
Brexiteer dismantles 'doomsday' Brexit claims with key point – 'Whipped up by Remainers'
BREXITEER MP David Davies accused MPs of talking about “doomsday scenarios” in regards to a no deal Brexit, arguing there have been “serious attempts” made by Boris Johnson to prepare for the possible outcome.
Quote:
Dominic Grieve recently claimed a no deal Brexit could be halted if Parliament “wishes to stop it”. However, Tory MP David Davies believes the UK is “perfectly well prepared” for the outcome and claimed there have been “serious attempts” from Boris Johnson’s Government to put everything in order for the possibility. Mr Davies also pointed out that America is the UK’s “biggest trading partner” and the UK would trade with Europe on WTO terms in “exactly the same way we trade with America at the moment”.
<snip>
I'm not sure the news story justifies the headline. A favourite tactic of the Express, where the stories can be reasonable, but the headlines are way out of kilter with them. A particularly invidious technique, because there's nothing in the story that's particularly wrong - or memorable, but the headline, which is memorable is completely inaccurate.
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Old 6th August 2019, 02:22 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-for-uk-trade

He just can't wait for American goods to flood into the British market, completely nullifying whatever benefit Brexit would offer British manufacturing, agricultural and fishing industries. No doubt the Americans want to offload the crap they can't sell to China anymore.
Most consumer goods aren't made in America either way, they are made in China. What does the US have to sell to the UK? Agricultural goods, expensive health products?
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