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Old 25th November 2021, 01:03 AM   #41
Samson
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Bear in mind a couple of things:

Firstly, the bookies' odds only reflect where the punters' money has been bet rather than being an objective assessment of the odds of each candidate actually winning the election.

Secondly, Ladbrokes are a UK-based bookmaker and so the odds likely reflect the opinions of UK-based punters. Donald Trump has orders of magnitude better name recognition than the majority of other candidates. Indeed, Joe Biden may be the only candidate with anything like the same level.

All that said, if he is able to run, and if he chooses to run then it's very likely that Donald Trump would secure the GOP nomination which in turn means that his chances of being re-elected is 50% give or take.
I just watch Ladbrokes, are there American sites?
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Old 25th November 2021, 01:07 AM   #42
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easy money to be made of the incurably gullible.
just like last time.
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Old 25th November 2021, 01:09 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
easy money to be made of the incurably gullible.
just like last time.
What were they saying in 2016? I have no idea, but it would be interesting.
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Old 25th November 2021, 01:23 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I just watch Ladbrokes, are there American sites?
I don't know.

I'm not sure that online betting is legal in the US.
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Old 25th November 2021, 01:24 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
What were they saying in 2016? I have no idea, but it would be interesting.
The bookies gave Trump much better numbers than almost all pollsters.
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Old 25th November 2021, 01:26 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
That's OK. Everyone else knows what it means.
I don't.

It might not be valid to conclude that punters believe that Biden and Harris "suck so bad" but I doubt that was the meaning of your cartoon.
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Old 25th November 2021, 02:52 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
It's hard to imagine those two suck so bad that Trump is favored...but somehow they do. You just gotta laugh.
I do.

Imagine being so pathetic at your job that within 24 months you're losing to the worst president in America's history. I find it hilarious that with all the people and power in the hands of the Dumbocrats they can't see what's going on. Jesus, they are thick.

The only poll I can find already shows Trump beating him. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...n-poll-1646713

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Secondly, Ladbrokes are a UK-based bookmaker and so the odds likely reflect the opinions of UK-based punters.
American bookies can't give odds on it, so I'd be surprised if there wasn't a fair bit of American money in the pot

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I just watch Ladbrokes, are there American sites?
No, but there are Aussie ones as well.

He's favourite at Sportsbet: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting...n-2024-5479667

Even the Aussie TAB has odds, but you need to sign up to see them. I imagine they'd be the same.

I'd say Trump's a certainty at this stage. Unless Biden recognises that he needs to be seen a lot more often than he is, he's going to get beaten like a Once Were Warriors housewife. The only person who'd lose worse than Biden is Harris. Add to that the laws being rushed through in swing states and Biden has no chance.

At 4:1 the odds are much better than you'll get from a bank for a two-year investment, and easily as safe, because the Dumbocrats won't change their playbook and will pay the price.

I might see if I can get some odds on a Red treble - the Republicans in charge of all three houses in 2024. Should be 10:1 or more, and a lazy hundy would be worth it at those odds. The only thing stopping him at this stage would be his death.
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Old 25th November 2021, 03:26 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Bear in mind a couple of things:

Firstly, the bookies' odds only reflect where the punters' money has been bet rather than being an objective assessment of the odds of each candidate actually winning the election.

Secondly, Ladbrokes are a UK-based bookmaker and so the odds likely reflect the opinions of UK-based punters. Donald Trump has orders of magnitude better name recognition than the majority of other candidates. Indeed, Joe Biden may be the only candidate with anything like the same level.

All that said, if he is able to run, and if he chooses to run then it's very likely that Donald Trump would secure the GOP nomination which in turn means that his chances of being re-elected is 50% give or take.
This. Bookies are absolutely ***** regarding political odds. I've taken quite a lot of money off them over the years, starting with a very welcome ten grand back when I was eighteen.
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Old 25th November 2021, 10:25 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
This. Bookies are absolutely ***** regarding political odds.
That's an idiotic statement. Bookies are superb at setting political odds. They make money off them, which is the only metric they care about.

Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
I've taken quite a lot of money off them over the years, starting with a very welcome ten grand back when I was eighteen.
I'm going to call that out as pure ********.

Ten bucks maybe, but at ten grand at 18? You will need some compelling evidence for anyone to believe a bar of it.
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Old 25th November 2021, 10:58 AM   #50
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But... but... but-but... "ELECTABLE!"
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Old 25th November 2021, 03:22 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't.

It might not be valid to conclude that punters believe that Biden and Harris "suck so bad" but I doubt that was the meaning of your cartoon.
That's OK. Those that matter, do.
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Old 26th November 2021, 01:34 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
That's OK. Those that matter, do.
I bet they don't.
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Old 26th November 2021, 01:53 AM   #53
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Predictit has Trump at 40c a share (DeSantis is second with 27c).

For the 2024 winner, Trump leads with 31c, Biden has 24c, DeSantis has 19c, and Harris has 12c.

Assuming Biden runs again, regardless of his opponent in the general election, his stock should rise. If anyone thinks there's an excellent chance he'll live (and run), he's probably undervalued, especially since he's an incumbent.
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Old 26th November 2021, 02:03 AM   #54
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I'd put Biden on less than 50/50 to win the primary, but above 50% to win the Presidency if he gets the nomination.
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Old 26th November 2021, 05:48 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I'd put Biden on less than 50/50 to win the primary, but above 50% to win the Presidency if he gets the nomination.
If someone runs against Biden in the primary, then that will hurt his chances in a general election. A primary opponent would be bad news.

I put some money down and bought 100 shares of Biden winning the presidency at 25c a share. I figured I'd sell after it jumps up, not hold until election day. In retrospect, that was kind of dumb because while I expect he'll go up, I could see him not topping 40 or 45c, in which case the risk-to-reward isn't great.
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Old 26th November 2021, 08:44 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
If someone runs against Biden in the primary, then that will hurt his chances in a general election.
I have heard this my whole life, but I don't think I've seen it tested. I get suspicious about ubiquitous political strategery that isn't based on a clear pattern in real-world precedents. It reminds me of examples that manage to continue to be ubiquitous despite clear real-world proof that they're definitely false, which does not inspire me to take ubiquity by itself as a sign of accuracy.

Originally Posted by Cain View Post
A primary opponent would be bad news.
By the time potential opponents need to start actually campaigning against him or not doing so, he's probably going to be so far out of contention that nothing could make it worse.
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Old 27th November 2021, 01:00 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I bet they don't.
Have abaddon explain it to you.
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Old 27th November 2021, 03:44 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
I have heard this my whole life, but I don't think I've seen it tested. I get suspicious about ubiquitous political strategery that isn't based on a clear pattern in real-world precedents. It reminds me of examples that manage to continue to be ubiquitous despite clear real-world proof that they're definitely false, which does not inspire me to take ubiquity by itself as a sign of accuracy.
The obvious confounding variable is that weak incumbents will be more likely to draw challengers, so did the president lose the general election because he was challenged in the primary or because he was always weak? Regardless, the incumbent will probably prevail, so runs drain money and divide loyalties without replacing the candidate.

Quote:
By the time potential opponents need to start actually campaigning against him or not doing so, he's probably going to be so far out of contention that nothing could make it worse.
I doubt that. Races usually tighten. The election is almost three years away.
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Old 28th November 2021, 12:45 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I'd put Biden on less than 50/50 to win the primary, but above 50% to win the Presidency if he gets the nomination.
If he runs he will win the primary, so the 50/50 is really 100/0. Carter was the last sitting president to face a serious challenge in the 1980 primary from his own party, when Ted Kennedy mounted a late insurrection.
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