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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Gladys Berejiklian , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 23rd August 2021, 03:30 PM   #321
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Just to reinforce my “anyone but Albo” post before:

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...23-p58lan.html

Quote:
Voters have swung to the Coalition and backed Prime Minister Scott Morrison on key personal measures, lifting the government’s primary vote from 38 to 40 per cent amid a debate about when to end lockdowns.
Despite Morrison’s monumental mishandling of the pandemic and disregard of climate change, he’s trouncing Albo. He must go.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 08:52 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Getting back to pure federal politics, I have now decided that I, a Labor voter from the womb, a true believer, light on the hill acolyte and hater of all things LNP, will not vote for a party led by Albanese next Federal election.
So Scumo gets your preference ahead of Albanese? That's sick.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 08:54 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Getting back to pure federal politics, I have now decided that I, a Labor voter from the womb, a true believer, light on the hill acolyte and hater of all things LNP, will not vote for a party led by Albanese next Federal election.

ALP will get my vote in Victoria, to the surprise of nobody.
So long as you don't vote for a party led by Morrison, I'm okay with that.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 08:58 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So Scumo gets your preference ahead of Albanese? That's sick.
If you vote below the line, you get to choose who your preference goes to. I never vote above the line. I don't trust the preference flow enough.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 11:31 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
If you vote below the line, you get to choose who your preference goes to. I never vote above the line. I don't trust the preference flow enough.
Your knowledge is out of date. You can now vote above the line and number 6 or more squares. (Previously if you voted above the line, the party allocated your preferences and that might have meant Liberal before Labor). So in the Senate, you can avoid giving a preference to either major -party.

However, in the House of Representatives, you still have to number every square and since a minor party is unlikely to win your seat, you have to decide whether to give your preference to Liberal or Labor.
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Old 24th August 2021, 12:51 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Your knowledge is out of date. You can now vote above the line and number 6 or more squares. (Previously if you voted above the line, the party allocated your preferences and that might have meant Liberal before Labor). So in the Senate, you can avoid giving a preference to either major -party.

However, in the House of Representatives, you still have to number every square and since a minor party is unlikely to win your seat, you have to decide whether to give your preference to Liberal or Labor.
Yes, but voting for other parties above one of them is still worthwhile though. Dennis the Election Koala taught me that.
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:30 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yes, but voting for other parties above one of them is still worthwhile though. Dennis the Election Koala taught me that.
Yes but that doesn't change the fact that ultimately your vote will either go to Labor or Liberal after the distribution of preferences (House of Representatives).
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Old 24th August 2021, 04:05 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So Scumo gets your preference ahead of Albanese? That's sick.
Not if I vote informal.
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:37 AM   #329
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If I were to wait around for someone I admire and trust to run the country then I would have voted informally all my life.

I take it for granted that I am voting for the least worst, the bunch that will screw things up the least.

At a state level I will be voting Liberal again, at the federal level I will vote Labor, even a Labor led by Albanese.
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Old 24th August 2021, 12:39 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Not if I vote informal.
I must admit that hadn't occurred to me.

But I fail to see why you would do anything that assists Scumo. Albanese might be as exciting as watching paint dry but he doesn't seem to have any bad policies.
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Old 24th August 2021, 04:54 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I must admit that hadn't occurred to me.

But I fail to see why you would do anything that assists Scumo. Albanese might be as exciting as watching paint dry
...which is why he won't win an election.
Quote:
...but he doesn't seem to have any bad policies.
Which is NOT why he won't win an election.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:00 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Yes but that doesn't change the fact that ultimately your vote will either go to Labor or Liberal after the distribution of preferences (House of Representatives).
No, and I never said that it does. In fact Dennis demonstrates pretty much exactly that, but as I said there are still good reasons to put other parties above both.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:35 PM   #333
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With NSW getting close to 1000 cases a day, Gladys is lecturing citizens to take no notice of case levels as she plans to re-open. Hairdressers and nail salons look like they will be first.

With only 30% vaccinated, cases and deaths will increase. You can bet that regardless of how free people in NSW feel, they will not be free to visit other states despite the wishes of her and Morrison.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:43 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
With NSW getting close to 1000 cases a day, Gladys is lecturing citizens to take no notice of case levels as she plans to re-open. Hairdressers and nail salons look like they will be first.

With only 30% vaccinated, cases and deaths will increase. You can bet that regardless of how free people in NSW feel, they will not be free to visit other states despite the wishes of her and Morrison.
I hate the lockdown as much as the next person. But she will be a sad bunny if she doesn't get it under control but opens too soon.

Also, you need to listen carefully to her wording. She does seem to give herself wiggle-room for later.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:39 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
No, and I never said that it does. In fact Dennis demonstrates pretty much exactly that, but as I said there are still good reasons to put other parties above both.
Why do you keep trying to deny that it matters whether you put Liberal or Labor ahead on your preferences? And if you are not denying it then what are you arguing about?

Preferential voting means that you can vote for the party of your choice without handing victory to the party you hate by default (as you would if you voted informal).
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:41 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
...which is why he won't win an election.
...especially if Labor supporters like LK would rather see Scumo win than vote for somebody who is boring.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:49 PM   #337
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When I got my first dose (of AZ) in April, approximately 9,300 other Australians got theirs on the same day.

Yesterday Kid Nay got his first dose (of Pfizer,) and approximately 53,000 other Australians got theirs on the same day.

Scomo may be a very unattractive man, and a bit of a bumbler, but he's right when he says the vaccine rollout has gained pace.
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:23 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why do you keep trying to deny that it matters whether you put Liberal or Labor ahead on your preferences?
How the hell do you get the idea that I'm denying that it matters which of those two you put ahead in the preferences? That's not what I'm saying at all. That's very nearly the exact opposite of what I'm saying.

Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
And if you are not denying it then what are you arguing about?
I'm arguing that even if your preference flows to either Liberal or Labor, which it does, it's still worth putting other parties ahead of either of them.

Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Preferential voting means that you can vote for the party of your choice without handing victory to the party you hate by default (as you would if you voted informal).
You seem to be suggesting that you might as well just put Liberal or Labor on the top because they'll get the preferences anyway, which is exactly what Dennis the Election Koala is saying is not the case.

But let me know if I've misunderstood what you're saying, because I'm pretty confused right now.
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Old 24th August 2021, 09:51 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Preferential voting means that you can vote for the party of your choice without handing victory to the party you hate by default (as you would if you voted informal).
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
You seem to be suggesting that you might as well just put Liberal or Labor on the top because they'll get the preferences anyway,
If you think that these two statements are equivalent then you have serious comprehension problems.
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Old 24th August 2021, 10:21 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If you think that these two statements are equivalent then you have serious comprehension problems.
And if you think I'm saying that it doesn't matter which one you put ahead of the other, you also have serious comprehension problems.
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Old 24th August 2021, 10:30 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
And if you think I'm saying that it doesn't matter which one you put ahead of the other, you also have serious comprehension problems.
Then I don't know what you are disagreeing with me about.
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Old 24th August 2021, 10:47 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Then I don't know what you are disagreeing with me about.
Excuse me. You disagreed with me.
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Old 24th August 2021, 11:41 PM   #343
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I know it's twitter, but here is someone who is talking about what Doherty said and is comparing it to some modelling by the ANU.

I don't like the way the government is talking about opening up at 70% of the eligible population being vaccinated (so in reality it's something like 56%) and doing it in a way that implies there won't be any restrictions at all.
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Old 25th August 2021, 01:24 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
When I got my first dose (of AZ) in April, approximately 9,300 other Australians got theirs on the same day.

Yesterday Kid Nay got his first dose (of Pfizer,) and approximately 53,000 other Australians got theirs on the same day.

Scomo may be a very unattractive man, and a bit of a bumbler, but he's right when he says the vaccine rollout has gained pace.
In the race to get vaccinated Australia started three months late and then slowly. Now it is going at a good pace and should finish sometime late this year. They may even have enough vaccines to do 11-16-year-olds this year. At least the first dose. In the meantime, certain other countries have already vaccinated almost all people aged over 16 years.
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Old 25th August 2021, 06:43 AM   #345
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Can someone explain how Gladys can let it rip, as I believe she will do tomorrow, with 1000 daily cases and just over 30% fully vaccinated?
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Old 25th August 2021, 04:29 PM   #346
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You might be in the same boat shortly. 80 cases notified today, with 13 of unknown origin and half infectious in the community.

I am becoming more and more of the opinion that delta can't be shut down, and you can't stay locked down forever.

NZ looks to be in the same cart as Vic, although we do have ancestry for all of our cases so far. Not helping them get to zero, however.
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Old 25th August 2021, 06:06 PM   #347
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Over 1000 cases in NSW, and the moron is opening up with 5 adults allowed to congregate in most of Sydney. There is only 30% fully vaccinated. 2000 here we come.
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Old 25th August 2021, 07:13 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Over 1000 cases in NSW, and the moron is opening up with 5 adults allowed to congregate in most of Sydney. There is only 30% fully vaccinated. 2000 here we come.
Sadly, I think you are right. Scummo has gotten in her ear. I hope they can both be canned simultaneously.
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Old 25th August 2021, 07:27 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>

I am becoming more and more of the opinion that delta can't be shut down, and you can't stay locked down forever.

NZ looks to be in the same cart as Vic, although we do have ancestry for all of our cases so far. Not helping them get to zero, however.
Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Over 1000 cases in NSW, and the moron is opening up with 5 adults allowed to congregate in most of Sydney. There is only 30% fully vaccinated. 2000 here we come.
I am putting these two posts together. What would be the consequences of opening up, letting everyone going back to work? Have certain restrictions such as facemasks.

Yes, hospitals will be overwhelmed. But make temporary hospitals, with basic care. No ICU. There will be several deaths. You could also vaccinate most people with the AZ vaccine. We have plenty of that.

The above sounds horrible. But if delta cannot be shut down the alternatives are even worse.
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Old 25th August 2021, 07:30 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Excuse me. You disagreed with me.
WTF? How did updating your knowledge about how voting in the Senate works morph into "you might as well just put Liberal or Labor on the top because they'll get the preferences anyway"?
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Old 25th August 2021, 07:41 PM   #351
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Since you have no idea what I am talking about, let me spell it out.

The big drawback of FPTP is that it forces the voter to vote strategically. You might really want to vote Greens but that might draw votes away from Labor and give Scumo's party the seat. So you are forced to vote Labor instead (thus cementing the 2 party system).

Under preferential voting, you can safely vote Greens number 1 secure in the knowledge that if the Green candidate doesn't win, your vote will go to Labor instead (if that is how you number your preferences).

Note that as well as who gets number 1 on your vote, it is equally as important that you decide whether Labor or Liberal/NP gets a higher preference on your vote card.
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Old 25th August 2021, 07:45 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Since you have no idea what I am talking about...
I know exactly what you're taking about. But you didn't appear to have an idea what I was talking about, which is what led to this ridiculous derail.

Now that we're both on the same page, let's move on, shall we?
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Old 25th August 2021, 09:56 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am putting these two posts together. What would be the consequences of opening up, letting everyone going back to work? Have certain restrictions such as facemasks.

Yes, hospitals will be overwhelmed. But make temporary hospitals, with basic care. No ICU. There will be several deaths. You could also vaccinate most people with the AZ vaccine. We have plenty of that.

The above sounds horrible. But if delta cannot be shut down the alternatives are even worse.
"Will be..."?? Already are. There are not enough available staff during good times. Funding cutbacks saw to that. In COVID times, there's even fewer staff available.

Temporary hospitals? Using what? Where? Are you thinking of M*A*S*H? Think we might be able to emulate China and build a whole prefab hospital in a few days? This is a government that can't seem to find the funds or even the will to build quarantine quarters for a couple of thousand people in the last two years. COVID hospitals would be an order of magnitude or two bigger demand. Ain't gonna happen!

And even if they did, who would staff them? Do we just magic more doctors and nurses? And who will pay for them? Imagine. Row after row of hospital tents full of COVID patients wheezing and coughing, and only a handful of nurses or doctors to see to them. Not to mention the opportunity to pass on any other diseases they may have. Seriously, this is third-world refugee camp pestilence outbreak level stuff.

Not "joined-up" thinking, I'm afraid.
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Old 25th August 2021, 09:58 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am putting these two posts together. What would be the consequences of opening up, letting everyone going back to work? Have certain restrictions such as facemasks.

Yes, hospitals will be overwhelmed. But make temporary hospitals, with basic care. No ICU. There will be several deaths. You could also vaccinate most people with the AZ vaccine. We have plenty of that.

The above sounds horrible. But if delta cannot be shut down the alternatives are even worse.
Hallelujah! Someone gets it.
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Old 25th August 2021, 10:08 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Can someone explain how Gladys can let it rip, as I believe she will do tomorrow, with 1000 daily cases and just over 30% fully vaccinated?
Because they've reached the magic and arbitrary round number of 6 million vaccinations. Party time!

Yep, more complicated and half-arsed restrictions.

Sunk-cost fallacy of keeping doing the same thing and getting the same bad results.

Is is coincidentally a good time for this **** now people are sick of the restrictions, and sick of the case numbers, and to hell with the consequences?
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Old 25th August 2021, 10:33 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am putting these two posts together. What would be the consequences of opening up, letting everyone going back to work? Have certain restrictions such as facemasks.

Yes, hospitals will be overwhelmed. But make temporary hospitals, with basic care. No ICU. There will be several deaths. You could also vaccinate most people with the AZ vaccine. We have plenty of that.

The above sounds horrible. But if delta cannot be shut down the alternatives are even worse.
With only 30% vaccinated, it would grow to 10,000 cases in weeks and dozens of deaths a day. They won’t be at 70% until mid October. I think she will allow hardware and department stores to open before then, but surely not pubs and restaurants.

Even this easing is fraught with danger. When asked if people would pretend they were vaccinated she said she would trust her people. Now didn’t that work well…
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Old 25th August 2021, 10:39 PM   #357
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Of course she continues to divide Sydney, with certain blessed postcodes more open than others.
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Old 25th August 2021, 10:40 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hallelujah! Someone gets it.
How about you test it in NZ and let us know the results.
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Old 26th August 2021, 04:01 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Of course she continues to divide Sydney, with certain blessed postcodes more open than others.
Being in one of the non-cursed Sydney areas, I don't think they are a lot different in practice. There have been regular police crackdowns on lockdown rules-breakers here, 100kms from the CBD. Btw, the hardware stores, all three of them within 50kms, are closed. The dozens of supermarkets, though, are open under limited conditions.

Really, people have been bitching about a "Ring Of Steel" around the affected areas and why Gladys didn't go hard earlier. Of course she has gone far too belatedly. But now that Ring Of Steel is indeed clamped down on the worst affected areas, a "Fence Of Steel" is on the broader Sydney area, and the rest of the state is locked down hard. Short of nailing everyone to their kitchen tables, the place is now stationary. So we are all just going to have to wait this out.
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Old 26th August 2021, 04:05 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Because they've reached the magic and arbitrary round number of 6 million vaccinations. Party time!

Yep, more complicated and half-arsed restrictions.

Sunk-cost fallacy of keeping doing the same thing and getting the same bad results.

Is is coincidentally a good time for this **** now people are sick of the restrictions, and sick of the case numbers, and to hell with the consequences?
Really, it was because the people who should have been listening to the consequences of their actions, i.e. killing their grandmas and grandpas and cousins and kids, were not. No point any further trying to tell them - they aren't listening. Everyone else who did listen has heard the same thing dozens of times and it's gotten right boring. So the focus and the message changed to something else.
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