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Old 15th September 2021, 02:33 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It goes to show that people with likely far more expertise in t hese matters than London John did think a mine was possible. This was 3 Oct 1994 and James Meek for the GUARDIAN reported it.

It is no more and no less conjecture that Carl Bildt's claim on the date of the accident itself saying it 'must have been the bow visor falling off'.
To be fair to London John, I don't think any shops have been lost to mine in that region since, so perhaps the odds were slim.

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Old 15th September 2021, 02:44 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It goes to show that people with likely far more expertise in t hese matters than London John did think a mine was possible. This was 3 Oct 1994 and James Meek for the GUARDIAN reported it.

It is no more and no less conjecture that Carl Bildt's claim on the date of the accident itself saying it 'must have been the bow visor falling off'.
Bildt's claim has the merit of referring to something known to actually exist: The bow visor. Mines in the Baltic shipping lanes are not known to exist.
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Old 15th September 2021, 02:49 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Which 'entire phone network'?

How did Russia take down the entire phone network?
Communication problems on the night of the incident:
  • When Viking Mariella and Silja Europa got the May Day from Estline Estonia, they used VHF Channel 16 to alert Finland Coastguards but *there was no reply*.
  • The two ships then used Channel 2182 which covers the entire Baltic: *again, no answer*.
  • After a while of no response, they had to *pull out their mobile phones* and call the rescue centres on their landlines.
  • Nearby Russia, likewise, which is linked to the US-Russian COPSAS-SARSAT satellite system that picks up emergency beacon signals and sends the location, *picked up NOTHING*.
  • This is because the EPIRB buoys which are designed to activate in an emergency such as sinking *had been switched off*, against all convention.
  • It was Werner Hummel, a reputable marine professional, who said the entire phone network was down from 1:02 to 1:58. The ship vanished off the radar at 1:52.
  • Finnish Rear Admiral Heimo Iivonen believes the Russians had a continuous signal jamming from Hoagland Island (Suursaari) which interfered with Channel 16 - the International Distress Channel.
  • On this occasion, it had been going on for at least a month.
  • An American Estonian from New Jersey brought the issue up in Parliament 1994 and called for a Russian explanation.

So, together with the passengers reporting a series of bangs going off at Swedish midnight and an extremely rapid sinking (cf USS Cole which never sank at all despite 700lbs of explosives and two suicide bombers in a small boat) there are questions that need to be answered but never were. There was third mate Tammes desperately trying to send a May Day, albeit rather late in the day and he was forced to call back with the coordinates as the GPS was down! He had to call back with Kaunusaar calling out the coordinates in the background, which Tammes misrepeated a couple of times.

Of the people who made it out to the deck, 300 or so, maybe two hundred of them would not have died of drowning and hyperthermia had the communications network functioned as it should, even if 700 were doomed anyway below deck.
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Old 15th September 2021, 02:50 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Bildt's claim has the merit of referring to something known to actually exist: The bow visor. Mines in the Baltic shipping lanes are not known to exist.
I have a feeling you made that up off the top of your head.
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Old 15th September 2021, 02:54 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
To be fair to London John, I don't think any shops have been lost to mine in that region since, so perhaps the odds were slim.

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Not all car ferries have bow visors. So wow, a double whammy with both the visor and the car ramp falling off/open. All thanks to a few strong waves. Who knew the Baltic was such a raging leviathan.
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Old 15th September 2021, 02:54 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It goes to show that people with likely far more expertise in t hese matters than London John did think a mine was possible. This was 3 Oct 1994 and James Meek for the GUARDIAN reported it.
I googled James Meek. I cannot find any evidence that he is an expert in nautical matters.

Quote:
It is no more and no less conjecture that Carl Bildt's claim on the date of the accident itself saying it 'must have been the bow visor falling off'.
At the original point Bildt made the claim, yes. However, the dive on the ship strongly supports his conjecture.
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Old 15th September 2021, 02:55 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I have a feeling you made that up off the top of your head.
You think the Estonia's bow visor is something I made up?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:03 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Communication problems on the night of the incident:
  • When Viking Mariella and Silja Europa got the May Day from Estline Estonia, they used VHF Channel 16 to alert Finland Coastguards *there was no reply*
  • The two ships then used Channel 2182 which covers the entire Baltic: *again, no answer*
  • After a while of no response, they had to *pull out their mobile phones* and call the resuce centres on the landlines.
  • Nearrby Russia, likewise, which is linked to the US-Russian COPSAS-SARSAT satelite system that picks up emergency beacon signals and sneds the location picked up NOTHING.
  • This is because the EPIRB buoys which are designed to activate in an emergency such as sinking *had been switched off* against all convention.
  • It was Werner Hummel, a reputable marine professional, who said the entire phone network was down from 1:02 to 1:58. The ship vanished off the radar at 1:52.
  • Finnish Rear Admiral Heimo Iivonen believes the Russians had a continuous signal jamming from Hoagland Island (Suursaari) which interfered with Channel 16 - the International Distress Channel.
  • On this occasion it had been going on for at least a month
  • An American Estonian from New Jersey brought the issue up in Parliament 1994 and called for a Russian explanation.
The Estonia's EPIRB buoys were of the type that had to be activated manually. Regulations were subsequently written requiring ships to keep a type that automatically deploy if a ship sinks.

If the entire phone network went down, how was the call via mobile phone completed??

The supposed jamming had been going on for a month? Are you suggesting the Russians planned an attack on the Estonia for an entire month? And that they jammed channel 16 so that perhaps fewer people would survive which accomplishes what exactly??

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Old 15th September 2021, 03:04 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You think the Estonia's bow visor is something I made up?
Not all car ferries have bow visors so the bow visor is not the essential plug you appear to believe it is.


The Estonia does have a whopping great hole in the starboard. Er, the Behemoth in the room. How long can you pretend not to have noticed it?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:05 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
The Estonia's EPRIB buoys were of the type that had to be activated manually. Regulations were subsequently written requiring ships to keep a type that automatically deploy if a ship sinks.

If the entire phone network went down, how was the call via mobile phone completed??
I am guessing one of those hand-held jobs that are really landline phones recharged to be carried around. This was 1994, remember!!!
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:07 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It was Werner Hummel, a reputable marine professional, who said the entire phone network was down from 1:02 to 1:58.
Why would a marine professional be considered an expert in telephony? His reputation is irrelevant; the question of whether a service was or was not available is a purely factual matter. What evidence does he present for the claim, and where may we view it?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:09 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The Estonia does have a whopping great hole in the starboard. Er, the Behemoth in the room. How long can you pretend not to have noticed it?
It also has a misplaced visor. There is evidence that the visor departed the ship while it was yet on the surface. There is no evidence that the hole in the starboard side was made while the ship was still on the surface. Piles upon piles of conjecture, yes, but no evidence.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:10 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Not all car ferries have bow visors so the bow visor is not the essential plug you appear to believe it is.
You do think the Estonia's bow visor is something I made up!
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:11 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I am guessing one of those hand-held jobs that are really landline phones recharged to be carried around. This was 1994, remember!!!
Really a landline phone... are you suggesting it was a cordless phone? That would require Estonia to have a phone line spooled and connected to the shore. But how would that bypass the "entire phone network" being down
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:16 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
The Estonia's EPIRB buoys were of the type that had to be activated manually. Regulations were subsequently written requiring ships to keep a type that automatically deploy if a ship sinks.

If the entire phone network went down, how was the call via mobile phone completed??

The supposed jamming had been going on for a month? Are you suggesting the Russians planned an attack on the Estonia for an entire month? And that they jammed channel 16 so that perhaps fewer people would survive which accomplishes what exactly??
Citation please for your claim about Estonia's EPIRB buoys. These buoys are always 'switched on' as it were, so that should they touch the surface of the sea, their GPS signal is activated. There is no reason to 'switch them off' and a manual 'switching on' in distress is not necessary as they are designed to activate themselves.

For the record the radio and telecommunications was the old system in 1994, which was replaced in 1999.

Re the EPIRB buoys:

Quote:
In both systems, the radio equipment on board a vessel also includes an emergency position indicating radio beacon (EPIRB). The EPIRB is a small radio buoy of “float-free” structure. If the vessel sinks, the buoy is released, rises to the surface and begins to transmit a distress alert. Three (or two) portable VHF radiotelephones are also required. They can accompany the lifeboats or liferafts when the vessel is abandoned.
Re radio and telecommunications:

Quote:
In the old system the radio station on board a vessel may be either a radiotelegraph station or a radiotelephone station. The international distress and safety frequencies are: 500 kHz for radiotelegraphy and 2182 kHz and VHF channel 16 for radiotelephony. In a radiotelegraph station all these frequencies are required and a vessel must carry a radio officer holding a radiotelegraph operator's certificate. For radiotelephone stations the telephone frequencies are required and the station is operated by deck officers holding a radiotelephone operator's general certificate (GOC).
https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:19 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Really a landline phone... are you suggesting it was a cordless phone? That would require Estonia to have a phone line spooled and connected to the shore. But how would that bypass the "entire phone network" being down
Werner Hummel makes that claim.

'Mobile phone' was obviously not the right word as I am not sure they were in general use at the time. 'Hand held phone' is the correct term.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:21 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You do think the Estonia's bow visor is something I made up!
You seemed to be claiming that whilst it was perfectly normal for a ship to sink by bow visor, a mine OTOH would be most unusual.

Are you sure you have your sense of probabilities in perspective?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:22 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Werner Hummel makes that claim.
But you're making it now and citing Hummel as authority. What did you do to verify your source's story was correct and credible before making the same claim yourself?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:23 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
You seemed to be claiming that whilst it was perfectly normal for a ship to sink by bow visor, a mine OTOH would be most unusual.

Are you sure you have your sense of probabilities in perspective?
I agree with his sense of perspective. It is far more probable in my estimation for a ship to perish by accident than by a sea mine in a heavily-traveled area.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:23 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I am guessing one of those hand-held jobs that are really landline phones recharged to be carried around. This was 1994, remember!!!
A landline. On a ship.

Of course, back in the '90s all ships trailed physical telephone lines back to their home port. The kids these days with their whiffy and whatnot, they don't understand. Still, at least it was an improvement over the 1980s, when they only had old baked bean cans and a length of string.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:24 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
But you're making it now and citing Hummel as authority. What did you do to verify your source's story was correct and credible before making the same claim yourself?
Hummel is a reliable source.

Obviously subject to the usual.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:25 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
I agree with his sense of perspective. It is far more probable in my estimation for a ship to perish by accident than by a sea mine in a heavily-traveled area.
Ha! Ha! I note you swerved around using the words 'by bow visor'. LOL.

Not even you can bring yourself to say it.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:26 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
A landline. On a ship.

Of course, back in the '90s all ships trailed physical telephone lines back to their home port. The kids these days with their whiffy and whatnot, they don't understand. Still, at least it was an improvement over the 1980s, when they only had old baked bean cans and a length of string.
Heh. Maybe it was some kind of walkie-talkie.

ETA: It was by NMT telphone:

Quote:
NMT – Nordic Mobile Telephone
NMT stands for Nordic Mobile Telephone and is an analog mobile telephone network that was jointly built up in the Nordic countries. NMT was a fully automated network created for the public and put into operation after ten years of development.
https://www.soluno.se/en/nmt-mobile-telephony/

Re Channel 16:

Quote:
Helsinki Radio did not receive the ESTONIA's distress message nor the subsequent radio communications. The MARIELLA informed Helsinki Radio by NMT telephone of the distress at 0142 hrs after failing to get contact on channel 16 and on 2182 kHz. On request by the Silja Europa, MRCC Helsinki also alerted Helsinki Radio.
The channel 16 distress traffic transmitted by the ESTONIA did not reach the coast radio stations in Sweden or Estonia because of the distance.
https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:26 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It goes to show that people with likely far more expertise in t hese matters than London John did think a mine was possible. This was 3 Oct 1994 and James Meek for the GUARDIAN reported it.

It is no more and no less conjecture that Carl Bildt's claim on the date of the accident itself saying it 'must have been the bow visor falling off'.
What experience do journalists have with sea mines?

If it was a sea mine left from ww2 why is the hole nothing like the damage a sea mine would do?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:29 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Ha! Ha! I note you swerved around using the words 'by bow visor'. LOL.

Not even you can bring yourself to say it.
I see; we're playing silly rhetorical games today. Okay, I find it far more probable that MS Estonia perished due to the loss of her bow visor, and the subsequent infiltration of water, than that she was struck by a sea mine in a heavily-traveled area.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:30 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Hummel is a reliable source.
That wasn't my question. What did you to to assure yourself that Hummel is a reliable source on this point?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:34 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What experience do journalists have with sea mines?

If it was a sea mine left from ww2 why is the hole nothing like the damage a sea mine would do?
As of that date - remember a newspaper comes out the day after - nobody had even yet located the ship.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:35 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
That wasn't my question. What did you to to assure yourself that Hummel is a reliable source on this point?
He has been willing to put forward his submissions in a court of law and be ready to back them up under cross examination. Plus he has to adhere to professional standards or be subject to disciplinary proceedings by his professional body/bodies.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:36 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
As of that date - remember a newspaper comes out the day after - nobody had even yet located the ship.
Wouldn't that tend to make it irresponsible of a journalist to claim a sea mine had caused the sinking? What experience did James Meek have with shipping and/or sea mines when he wrote that article? You are the one asserting Mr Meek must have more expertise on the matter than LondonJohn. Explain how you arrived at that determination.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:39 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
He has been willing to put forward his submissions in a court of law...
Is his claim that the "entire phone network" was non-functional for nearly an hour a statement he made under oath in court? If so, what evidence did he present to substantiate that?

Quote:
Plus he has to adhere to professional standards or be subject to disciplinary proceedings by his professional body/bodies.
How many times does this happen in his profession? Are you now claiming to be an expert in the ethical responsibilities of maritime experts?

Further, if he is testifying to whether a particular utility service was operational or not, he would be testifying as a fact witness, not an expert witness. His professional qualifications would be irrelevant to such testimony. And as he would not be testifying as an expert, there is very little a professional organization could do about it.

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Old 15th September 2021, 03:39 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Citation please for your claim about Estonia's EPIRB buoys. These buoys are always 'switched on' as it were, so that should they touch the surface of the sea, their GPS signal is activated. There is no reason to 'switch them off' and a manual 'switching on' in distress is not necessary as they are designed to activate themselves.
Subsequently, the IMO adopted special training requirements in crowd and crisis management for crews on passenger vessels. EPIRBS were required to activate automatically and voyage data recorders were mandated.

https://maritimecyprus.com/2020/09/2...2-lives-video/

Furthermore, Estonia’s distress beacons or EPIRBs had to be manually activated, something that did not happen. If they were activated, they would have made it immediately obvious that the ship had sunk and the location would have been clear. As a result, All EPIRBs were then required to be automatic, while it is considered that the accident played a key role to legislate Voyage Data Recorder

https://safety4sea.com/cm-ms-estonia...zNAiWjcnBszQeR

Firstly all vessels now must carry automatically activated EPIRBs - those aboard the “Estonia” were not activated during the disaster as they were manual devices, though fully functional and proven to be working subsequently

https://web.archive.org/web/20071112...d=66&Itemid=41
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:41 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
Wouldn't that tend to make it irresponsible of a journalist to claim a sea mine had caused the sinking? What experience did James Meek have with shipping and/or sea mines when he wrote that article? You are the one asserting Mr Meek must have more expertise on the matter than LondonJohn. Explain how you arrived at that determination.
It is very clear he is quoting a reputable and reliable source as journalists of his stature are professionally trained to do.

Remember as of the early days, of course it was speculation. Except for Bildt's. That was the forgone conclusion. 'Sobvious innit? It's yer bleedin' bow visor, innit? Gawd blimey, 'ave seen 'ow 'igh those blinkin' waves lap in this 'ere Baltic Sea? Gordon Bennett!
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:41 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So the telephone network was working, then?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:43 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It is very clear he is quoting a reputable and reliable source as journalists of his stature are professionally trained to do.
What "reputable and reliable source" does he quote?
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:47 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
So the telephone network was working, then?
NMT then was a very niche product. Hummel was likely referring to the common or garden phone networks.

Quote:
So what was so great about NMT? Well, NMT had a superior range compared to other systems. Even if you were far away from a mast, you could still place a call. This was particularly favorable in countries with a sparse population, such as Iceland or northern Sweden. Since later systems often reach a large percentage of the population of the country, there are still large land areas that have no coverage at all. NTM, on the other hand, reaches almost the entire land surface and also a good distance out to sea.

The longer reach in the system was due to two different things. Partly, NMT had a lower frequency, which allowed the signals to travel longer. With the lower frequency, the wavelength became longer and so you could be farther from the mast. In addition, NMT phones had a higher transmission power. An NMT 450 phone is allowed to have a transmit power of 15 watts while a GSM phone (second generation telephony, 2G) has a maximum of 6 watts only.
https://www.soluno.se/en/nmt-mobile-telephony/


IOW you would not expect a ship in distress to have to use an NMT in 1994 but it seems Tammes was also using some hand held phone as well.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:48 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
What "reputable and reliable source" does he quote?
Somebody in Tallinn who knows about these things, I expect.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:53 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
NMT then was a very niche product. Hummel was likely referring to the common or garden phone networks.

https://www.soluno.se/en/nmt-mobile-telephony/


IOW you would not expect a ship in distress to have to use an NMT in 1994 but it seems Tammes was also using some hand held phone as well.
Thats not how cell phones work. They don't "direct connect"* they tie into the landline system. Which, had it been down, the call could not have connected.

*Yes, Sprint made some that also functioned as a radio. I used to have one for work, they would've been well out of range of each other.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:53 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Somebody in Tallinn who knows about these things, I expect.
You apparently don't know. So you have absolutely no clue whether they are "reputable and reliable."

The article by James Meek headlined "Video shows disaster ferry doors torn off by waves" appears on page 22 of The Guardian, 4 October 1994. It mentions absolutely nothing about sea mines. In fact, it rather strongly corroborates the mainstream narrative. And despite your claims, the reporting is indeed based on video examination of the wreckage. Have you actually read the material in question? Or are you relying on mining citations from secondary sources which may have misrepresented the content?

You may have your story conflated with Mr Meek's article on 29 Sept. 1994 headlined "Death ferry sailed into Baltic storm with faulty door seals." No mention of sea mines there either. At that point the wreck had not yet been found. But I can find no evidence that James Meek reported anything about sea mines at any time in The Guardian.

Last edited by JayUtah; 15th September 2021 at 04:16 PM.
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Old 15th September 2021, 03:56 PM   #79
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Retracted
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Last edited by junkshop; 15th September 2021 at 04:00 PM. Reason: Already addressed by lobosrul5, credit where credit's due.
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Old 15th September 2021, 05:09 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Citation please for your claim about Estonia's EPIRB buoys. These buoys are always 'switched on' as it were, so that should they touch the surface of the sea, their GPS signal is activated. There is no reason to 'switch them off' and a manual 'switching on' in distress is not necessary as they are designed to activate themselves.

For the record the radio and telecommunications was the old system in 1994, which was replaced in 1999.

Re the EPIRB buoys:



Re radio and telecommunications:


https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt07_1.html
EPIRB buoys do not activate if they 'touch the surface of the sea'
If that was the case then spray or rain would activate them.

They will not activate until deployed.

Deployment can happen either manually where someone must physically remove it from its bracket or automatically where water pressure will cause a hydrostatic release unit to separate the EPIRB from its bracket. If it does not come out of the bracket it will not activate. There is a magnet in the bracket which operates a reed safety switch in the EPIRB. This prevents accidental activation if the unit gets wet from rain or shipped seas. It usually takes 4 meters of water to deploy.

Once deployed, EPIRBs can be activated, depending on the circumstances, either manually when a crewman flicks a switch or automatically when water contacts the unit's "sea-switch".

They are not 'always on'. they are not powered until activated.
They have a life of 2 years from fitting and need to be sent back to a depot to have the batteries replaced.

If the beacons weren't deployed they would not transmit. there is no way to 'switch them off' without completely destroying them.

Estonia had manually deployed EPIRB buoys.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 15th September 2021 at 05:26 PM.
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