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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 19th November 2021, 10:43 AM   #361
marting
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Did you mean to quote my post? I'm not seeing the relevance.
No. Not sure how it got there. Removed. Very weird how your post got in the front.
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Old 19th November 2021, 10:47 AM   #362
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Bit more on the possibility of previous coronavirus infections offering protection: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03110-4
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Old 19th November 2021, 01:17 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Bit more on the possibility of previous coronavirus infections offering protection: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03110-4
Interesting paper.

One line of research that might be productive is testing for common cold coronaviruses among the PCR negatives. Then this could be tracked over time to see if it impacted covid-19 rates.

If true, it shouldn't be too hard to identify which common coronavirus produce the T cell responses they describe. Once identified this could be added to the SARS-CoV-2 PCR-RT tests.

If there were effective cross reactivity and a common cold coronavirus was responsible - bring on the cold parties like the measles parties parents had pre-vaccine.
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Old 19th November 2021, 06:56 PM   #364
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Someone decided to have a decent look into Africa and why they're not in trouble from Covid.

No answers, but it does tend to confirm thousands of deaths aren't being covered up somewhere.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/afr...J6EMCCPIAMUGM/

My first thought was Vitamin D, and it's no surprise African nations are not generally deficient until higher latitude countries. South Africa being one of those, and where Covid has hit many times harder than the equatorial countries.

Quote:
This systematic review and meta-analysis found sufficient vitamin D levels in AfC populations as a whole, however vitamin D insufficiency was still prevalent in AfC populations living in higher latitude countries.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-021-00980-9

Hmmmm...
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Old 19th November 2021, 07:02 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
This study seems the most consistent with the high transmission and mortality in the nursing home I posted recently:

Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination Against Risk of Symptomatic Infection, Hospitalization, and Death Up to 9 Months: A Swedish Total-Population Cohort Study

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3949410
Originally Posted by marting View Post
Apparently you haven't understood what I wrote in a prior response on this from post #300 so I'll repeat and elaborate.

It's really standard stat. speak when p > .05. The last part does indicate waning after 211 days with a point Ve of 23% but a large CI. For that matter, detecting no protection is never possible. At best one can determine that a benefit or harm is statistically likely. Actually determining no effect can't be done. So what the paper is saying is that the p value is to high to exclude no efficacy in the 95% sense. But it does show some efficacy is likely but with a broad range.

For any population size, as the benefit/harm effect approaches 0, 95% of the time you will get a p value > .05. That's really the definition of the null hypothesis. In simple terms you can't actually determine no effect statistically when there is, in fact, no effect.

The smaller the benefit, the larger population size it takes to expect a p<.05.

Take this from the paper: "From day 211 and onwards no effectiveness could be detected (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).

For example if they had more infections in this group such that the point value was 26% instead of 23% they would have a p<.05 and be able to say the group showed not only a significant decline in efficacy but that it also showed a statistically significant (non zero) efficacy. Since the p value was above .05, they simply gave the point number of 23% and were unable to show a significant efficacy.

Frankly, none of those p-values should even have been reported, as no one cares (or should care) about hypothesis tests of "no effect" at any of those timepoints. Saying that they found no effect, when, in fact, they estimated a 23% effect is ridiculous. The point estimates and confidence intervals tell the real story.

On the other hand, I wouldn't condemn the paper just because the authors reported a few silly p-values.

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Old 19th November 2021, 07:41 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Frankly, none of those p-values should even have been reported, as no one cares (or should care) about hypothesis tests of "no effect" at any of those timepoints. Saying that they found no effect, when, in fact, they estimated a 23% effect is ridiculous. The point estimates and confidence intervals tell the real story.

On the other hand, I wouldn't condemn the paper just because the authors reported a few silly p-values.
I agree but standards in academic publishing compel publishing p values. What bugs me is the arbitrariness of p=.05. Less than .05 becomes "significant" and greater than .05 "not significant." People tend to ascribe greater weight to those words than they should. In this article they used the words "no effectiveness could be detected" which would be better written "no significant effectiveness was detected" in the standard, academic vernacular. I just look at the numbers.

Actually, at these low levels confounders are likely dominant. For instance people may, and in my experience are, less likely to get tested if they have sniffles if also vaccinated. That makes efficacy numbers lower than they are.
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Old 19th November 2021, 08:18 PM   #367
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I agree but standards in academic publishing compel publishing p values. What bugs me is the arbitrariness of p=.05. Less than .05 becomes "significant" and greater than .05 "not significant." People tend to ascribe greater weight to those words than they should. In this article they used the words "no effectiveness could be detected" which would be better written "no significant effectiveness was detected" in the standard, academic vernacular. I just look at the numbers.

Actually, at these low levels confounders are likely dominant. For instance people may, and in my experience are, less likely to get tested if they have sniffles if also vaccinated. That makes efficacy numbers lower than they are.

You're right that p-values are often reported either out of habit or because journal editors expect them. But this is the first study on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness that I recall seeing them. Since the purpose of these studies is normally to estimate effectiveness, only point estimates and their CIs are reported.

In the current study, a Bayesian analysis would have been much more informative than the reported frequentist analysis.
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Old 19th November 2021, 09:38 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Someone decided to have a decent look into Africa and why they're not in trouble from Covid.

No answers, but it does tend to confirm thousands of deaths aren't being covered up somewhere.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/afr...J6EMCCPIAMUGM/

My first thought was Vitamin D, and it's no surprise African nations are not generally deficient until higher latitude countries. South Africa being one of those, and where Covid has hit many times harder than the equatorial countries.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-021-00980-9

Hmmmm...

Just to poke at this a little more... on a quick look, it doesn't look like there's any correction for age in that. Given that the average age in Africa is apparently less than 20 years old and the average age in South Africa is more like around 28 years old, that's fairly certainly something to account for before trying to draw much in the way of other conclusions (like looking at Vit D) based on that.
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Old 19th November 2021, 10:12 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
You're right that p-values are often reported either out of habit or because journal editors expect them. But this is the first study on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness that I recall seeing them. Since the purpose of these studies is normally to estimate effectiveness, only point estimates and their CIs are reported.

In the current study, a Bayesian analysis would have been much more informative than the reported frequentist analysis.
P value "significance" is redundant when CIs are given for efficacy. When p < .05 the low percentage becomes negative. You're right. I don't see them in the this Qatar NEJM paper.
It has a rather extreme example that suffers from too small a sample size:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114
Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Table 4.

For Pfizer Asym Inf after 7 Mo.
Point: −33.3
CI(−181.8 to 36.9)

Will be interesting to see how this changes as more data accumulates. I don't expect the point estimate to remain negative.
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Old 19th November 2021, 10:28 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Just to poke at this a little more... on a quick look, it doesn't look like there's any correction for age in that. Given that the average age in Africa is apparently less than 20 years old and the average age in South Africa is more like around 28 years old, that's fairly certainly something to account for before trying to draw much in the way of other conclusions (like looking at Vit D) based on that.
Quite. In order to die of Covid 19 it's necessary to not die of something else before you reach the age where its fatality rate starts to shoot up.
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Old 19th November 2021, 10:41 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
In the current study, a Bayesian analysis would have been much more informative than the reported frequentist analysis.

To elaborate on that point, consider this quote that you took from the paper:

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Take this from the paper: "From day 211 and onwards no effectiveness could be detected (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).

Those same findings given a Bayesian interpretation would be, "From day 211 and onwards the the 95% credible interval for vaccine effectiveness was (-2%, 41%) indicating a probability of 0.965 that the vaccine was still effective."
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Old 20th November 2021, 03:05 AM   #372
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Just to poke at this a little more... on a quick look, it doesn't look like there's any correction for age in that. Given that the average age in Africa is apparently less than 20 years old and the average age in South Africa is more like around 28 years old, that's fairly certainly something to account for before trying to draw much in the way of other conclusions (like looking at Vit D) based on that.
I'm not drawing conclusions, because there's a lot of information missing, but it's another piece of the puzzle, and I don't think a difference of 8 years in average age is going to account for the enormous difference between RSA and central African countries.
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Old 21st November 2021, 12:02 PM   #373
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Hydroxy
Twitter thread:
Quote:
"This time, Didier Raoult has been let down by his own teams. According to new documents and testimonies that we have collected, more than a dozen people (biologists, doctors, interns or assistants) have expressed their unease about 'regrettable scientific and ethical practices'"
Worse: they denounce the falsification of biological results in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, which was once presented as a magic solution to combat Covid-19.
During a series of interviews conducted in October, several members of the IHU, more than 10, testified to representatives of the bodies that employ them [...] For "fear of reprisals", the preservation of anonymity and the confidentiality of exchanges were set conditions
2 groups of patients were analysed with different criteria to enable a false conclusion to be drawn about the effectiveness of HCQ.
The "increased media coverage of Raoult" then fuelled a "climate of cult of personality cult"
with the "broadcasting of videos of Raoult on a loop, inside the building" [...] "if we ask questions, the answer is often: 'Shut up, you're not paid to think'", says another member of the IHU. It was in this atmosphere that the staff interviewed witnessed the falsification of
biological results that led to the conclusion that hydroxychloroquine had a beneficial effect by biasing the results of PCR tests in a study comparing patients from the IHU taking the treatment and patients from the Nice University Hospital not taking it.

Lonni Besançon
(Nov 19, 2021)

There is more in the thread.
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Old 21st November 2021, 12:17 PM   #374
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Here's a shock - ICUs in Britain are full of the unvaccinated: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-wearing-thin
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Old 21st November 2021, 02:53 PM   #375
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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...mm7047e1-H.pdf

Risk of stillbirth deliveries when Covid-19 present.

Pre-Delta, 90% increased risk.
Post Delta, 300% increased risk.
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Old 22nd November 2021, 03:15 AM   #376
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's a shock - ICUs in Britain are full of the unvaccinated: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-wearing-thin

I bet many unvaccinated will recognize themselves in this:

Quote:
In hospital, Covid-19 has largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. The man in his 20s who had always watched what he ate, worked out in the gym, was too healthy to ever catch Covid badly. The 48-year-old who never got round to making the appointment.
The person in their 50s whose friend had side-effects. The woman who wanted to wait for more evidence. The young pregnant lady worried about the effect on her baby.
The 60-year-old, brought to hospital with oxygen saturations of 70% by the ambulance that he initially called for his partner, who had died by the time it arrived; both believed that the drug companies bribed the government to get the vaccine approved.
All severely ill with Covid. All unvaccinated and previously healthy. All completely avoidable.
(...)
But the story is different on our intensive care unit. Here, the patient population consists of a few vulnerable people with severe underlying health problems and a majority of fit, healthy, younger people unvaccinated by choice.
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Old 22nd November 2021, 07:35 PM   #377
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There's a new hypothesis on why Japan has done so well in the recent wave: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...4XXTQYC4BGDOA/

I'm not sure I buy it, but Japan does stick out like a sore thumb in the way each wave has broken long before it went nuclear, as it has everywhere else.

I'm open to the possibility that the widespread masking causes evolutionary pressure that could have achieved what they're saying, but it definitely needs more work.
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Old 22nd November 2021, 09:00 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's a new hypothesis on why Japan has done so well in the recent wave: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...4XXTQYC4BGDOA/

I'm not sure I buy it, but Japan does stick out like a sore thumb in the way each wave has broken long before it went nuclear, as it has everywhere else.

I'm open to the possibility that the widespread masking causes evolutionary pressure that could have achieved what they're saying, but it definitely needs more work.
Is there a published paper on this "theory?" Sounds like a bit of magical thinking. SARS-CoV-2 mutates a lot but if the mutation keeps it from propagating then that strain will die out. This actually happens often. There's a large number of mutations that aren't quite as transmissible and they lose out over time while new ones form and the main one keeps replicating until something comes along more fit.

What I would expect to see is a full genomic decode of viruses circulating in Japan and how they differ from those elsewhere. Then culture experiments showing it's less viable even while dominating in Japan.

Not holding my breath. I'm inclined toward their more rigorous NPIs and mask adherence just dropping R below 1. And that would increase evolutionary pressure. It ends or becomes endemic when R drops below 1 from vaccination and prior infection.

Found a bit more info in a Sun piece. It's a bit painful to read as there are contradictions in it. But this aligns with me:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1681...inction-japan/

Quote:
Dr Clarke said: “I find it incredibly difficult to believe that all Covid-19 in Japan has simultaneously and more-or-less in unison, evolved to be a dead end, that seems like a bizarre suggestion.

“It seems much more likely that partial immunity with whatever measures the Japanese have been taking in public health have driven down infection number.
As for why the orginal SARS died out, it didn't have as high an R0 at the start. And the high assymetry in transmission, the so called "k" factor meant we got lucky before it spread too far and didn't have a chance to mutate into something more fit since the large majority of mutations result in a less fit virus.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 01:49 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Is there a published paper on this "theory?"
I don't see any. It sounds like one bloke has reached a conclusion based on his own ideas. The mutations should be pretty easy to check, though.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 02:29 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's a new hypothesis on why Japan has done so well in the recent wave: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...4XXTQYC4BGDOA/

I'm not sure I buy it, but Japan does stick out like a sore thumb in the way each wave has broken long before it went nuclear, as it has everywhere else.

I'm open to the possibility that the widespread masking causes evolutionary pressure that could have achieved what they're saying, but it definitely needs more work.
Sounds like bollocks to me.

My best guess is that the state of emergency + masking + vaccination campaign which started late but which has reached almost 80% of the whole population (whole population, mind you, not this "eligible population" crap!) has driven down the virus and prevented it spreading.

Why is it sky rocketing elsewhere? Because people are acting like the pandemic is over in much of Europe. Or they were until it came back with a vengeance in the last few weeks.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:12 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's a new hypothesis on why Japan has done so well in the recent wave: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...4XXTQYC4BGDOA/

I'm not sure I buy it, but Japan does stick out like a sore thumb in the way each wave has broken long before it went nuclear, as it has everywhere else.

I'm open to the possibility that the widespread masking causes evolutionary pressure that could have achieved what they're saying, but it definitely needs more work.
I don't get that mask wearing is claimed to be important. Looks more like a claim that the delta variant in Japan mutated itself out of contention. Which leaves Japan vulnerable to other versions of Delta getting in.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 12:28 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
I don't get that mask wearing is claimed to be important.
It wasn't, that was me speculating about some speculation.

Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Looks more like a claim that the delta variant in Japan mutated itself out of contention.
That is the exact claim, and since the claim includes specific mutations, it should be easy to check that that's what actually happened.

Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Which leaves Japan vulnerable to other versions of Delta getting in.
Or even a reintroduction of the same one. They won't keep it out.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 12:30 PM   #383
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Meanwhile, some extremely positive news on the Pfizer vaccine efficacy in adolescents: https://health.economictimes.indiati...onths/87862022

With our twelvie back at school and double-dosed, I'm pretty happy about that.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 12:35 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Is there a published paper on this "theory?" Sounds like a bit of magical thinking. SARS-CoV-2 mutates a lot but if the mutation keeps it from propagating then that strain will die out. This actually happens often. There's a large number of mutations that aren't quite as transmissible and they lose out over time while new ones form and the main one keeps replicating until something comes along more fit.

What I would expect to see is a full genomic decode of viruses circulating in Japan and how they differ from those elsewhere. Then culture experiments showing it's less viable even while dominating in Japan.

Not holding my breath. I'm inclined toward their more rigorous NPIs and mask adherence just dropping R below 1. And that would increase evolutionary pressure. It ends or becomes endemic when R drops below 1 from vaccination and prior infection.

Found a bit more info in a Sun piece. It's a bit painful to read as there are contradictions in it. But this aligns with me:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1681...inction-japan/



As for why the orginal SARS died out, it didn't have as high an R0 at the start. And the high assymetry in transmission, the so called "k" factor meant we got lucky before it spread too far and didn't have a chance to mutate into something more fit since the large majority of mutations result in a less fit virus.
I agree.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:13 PM   #385
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I was looking at vaccinations over time in Japan. They had a late start but in the last 4 months they have gone from 30% to 76% of the population vaccinated and are now one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. They might also see a benefit because most vaccinated Japanese were recent so waning is minimal.

That alone would reduce R by a factor of >2. Looking at their case numbers, they peak right about the time vaccination rates hit 50%. Combine that with the NPIs Japanese tend to use more consistently than other countries and that remarkable reduction makes sense. Also, unlike many Western countries, they don't have highly polarized social groups separating vaxxers and anti-vaxxers that tend to socialize with those of like minds. This heterogeneity reduces the expected R reduction in regions with significant polarization.

No weird mutations required.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:38 PM   #386
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I was looking at vaccinations over time in Japan. They had a late start but in the last 4 months they have gone from 30% to 76% of the population vaccinated and are now one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. They might also see a benefit because most vaccinated Japanese were recent so waning is minimal.

That alone would reduce R by a factor of >2. Looking at their case numbers, they peak right about the time vaccination rates hit 50%. Combine that with the NPIs Japanese tend to use more consistently than other countries and that remarkable reduction makes sense. Also, unlike many Western countries, they don't have highly polarized social groups separating vaxxers and anti-vaxxers that tend to socialize with those of like minds. This heterogeneity reduces the expected R reduction in regions with significant polarization.

No weird mutations required.
Yeah, that’s right. It has been pretty obvious here in Japan that the vaccinations combined with the mitigation strategies reduced the numbers. Of course that doesn’t stop some ******** like this from making up crap….
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:40 PM   #387
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There was a time when I was inclined to believe Kory may have had his heart in the right place, but been mistaken. I now consider him to be a straight-up liar profiteering off the pandemic. What an absolutely disgraceful scumbag he is.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:43 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
They might also see a benefit because most vaccinated Japanese were recent so waning is minimal.
This is something that needs to be stressed, and we already had the excellent example of Israel, where the early vaccination turned out to be major trouble.

All countries should plan to get boosters done in the shortest time frame possible.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 03:58 PM   #389
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, that’s right. It has been pretty obvious here in Japan that the vaccinations combined with the mitigation strategies reduced the numbers. Of course that doesn’t stop some ******** like this from making up crap….
Yeah. And John Campbell is flogging Ivermectin in his latest video. And he has vaccination charts that show the late, but remarkably quick increase in vax percentages. The coincidence with the peaking and falling of cases should have been jumping out at him as by far the most likely cause. But he missed it because he is so apparently wedded to Ivermectin. Sad because his stuff has been quite good outside of that.

Interesting how people glom onto a notion, marry it, and till death do they part.

Learning is a search for things that contradict what you currently believe or expand knowledge you don't yet know. Both are critical.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 04:01 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Yeah. And John Campbell is flogging Ivermectin in his latest video. And he has vaccination charts that show the late, but remarkably quick increase in vax percentages. The coincidence with the peaking and falling of cases should have been jumping out at him as by far the most likely cause. But he missed it because he is so apparently wedded to Ivermectin. Sad because his stuff has been quite good outside of that.

Interesting how people glom onto a notion, marry it, and till death do they part.

Learning is a search for things that contradict what you currently believe or expand knowledge you don't yet know. Both are critical.
Really? Is “Doctor” John Campbell claiming IVM has been effective in Japan? What a liar! Unbelievable!
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 23rd November 2021, 04:33 PM   #391
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I certainly noticed antivaxxers in the newspaper discussion often mentioning Ivermectin being the secret behind Japan's success. I wonder where it came from.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 04:53 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I certainly noticed antivaxxers in the newspaper discussion often mentioning Ivermectin being the secret behind Japan's success. I wonder where it came from.
They just **** it out.

Basically, they have stitched together a narrative from some quote mining of a single video of the Tokyo Medical Head saying Ivermectin should be looked into, and that's pretty much it.

These charlatans don't bother to determine how much Ivermectin has been distributed. They just look at a graph showing a drop in cases and then write the word "Ivermectin" on it.

I remember someone saying here before that John Campbell is going to wait until the Oxford Trials are over before passing his judgment on whether it is effective, but he clearly claims it is achieving "miracles" now.

If the Oxford Trial shows nothing, he will almost certainly say that the trial was flawed.

If the Oxford Trial shows a minor, possible effect such as earlier clearing up of symptoms, then he will claim vindication.

He doesn't seem to care that all the studies that have been showing a genuine strong positive effect have been shown to be unreliable or outright fraud.

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up going full-on anti-vax as well.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 23rd November 2021, 08:37 PM   #393
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Equality

Dr. Campbell did not seem able to grasp that not all protease inhibitors were equally effective. Color me extremely unimpressed. He is spreading nonsense.
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Old 24th November 2021, 03:00 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
They just **** it out.

Basically, they have stitched together a narrative from some quote mining of a single video of the Tokyo Medical Head saying Ivermectin should be looked into, and that's pretty much it.

These charlatans don't bother to determine how much Ivermectin has been distributed. They just look at a graph showing a drop in cases and then write the word "Ivermectin" on it.

I remember someone saying here before that John Campbell is going to wait until the Oxford Trials are over before passing his judgment on whether it is effective, but he clearly claims it is achieving "miracles" now.

If the Oxford Trial shows nothing, he will almost certainly say that the trial was flawed.

If the Oxford Trial shows a minor, possible effect such as earlier clearing up of symptoms, then he will claim vindication.

He doesn't seem to care that all the studies that have been showing a genuine strong positive effect have been shown to be unreliable or outright fraud.

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up going full-on anti-vax as well.
That someone might have been me..

He will never, absolutely never go anti-vax, I would bet literally anything you want on it. I would even change my avatar to "Nogbad the Bad"!

He has always been full on pro vaccination from the start, through the middle, and continues to be pro vaccination now, reporting the studies and the clear success of the vaccination campaign.

He has always said we should not rely on vaccinations only, but should also use distancing, hand washing, ventilation, mask wearing AND if they show promise, therapeutics.

He will never go anti-vax, because he believes in the vaccination campaign and the science behind it.

The Japan question is kind of interesting though.

If its all due to the vaccination levels, then why haven't we seen a similar drop off the cliff in other countries with higher vaccination like Canada, UK, Spain, Portugal? Or is the idea that it could be the rapid change in vaccination level rather than the level itself?

How does that rate of change in levels compare to other countries with high levels, I wonder if there are others that have seen a similar fast uptake and saw the same drop.

What's the social situation like there, are people masking 100% of the time like here in Hong Kong? Is there distancing and work from home etc?

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Old 24th November 2021, 03:33 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
What's the social situation like there, are people masking 100% of the time like here in Hong Kong? Is there distancing and work from home etc?
To poke at a what a poster said not too long ago... masking is pretty much ubiquitous and there's some working at home more than there was.
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Old 24th November 2021, 03:45 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
That someone might have been me..

He will never, absolutely never go anti-vax, I would bet literally anything you want on it. I would even change my avatar to "Nogbad the Bad"!

He has always been full on pro vaccination from the start, through the middle, and continues to be pro vaccination now, reporting the studies and the clear success of the vaccination campaign.

He has always said we should not rely on vaccinations only, but should also use distancing, hand washing, ventilation, mask wearing AND if they show promise, therapeutics.

He will never go anti-vax, because he believes in the vaccination campaign and the science behind it.

The Japan question is kind of interesting though.

If its all due to the vaccination levels, then why haven't we seen a similar drop off the cliff in other countries with higher vaccination like Canada, UK, Spain, Portugal? Or is the idea that it could be the rapid change in vaccination level rather than the level itself?

How does that rate of change in levels compare to other countries with high levels, I wonder if there are others that have seen a similar fast uptake and saw the same drop.

What's the social situation like there, are people masking 100% of the time like here in Hong Kong? Is there distancing and work from home etc?
Yes, Japan is 100% masked near enough 100% of the time out of doors.

Every week I go hiking with my family, and even when meeting someone coming the other way down a mountain, people will almost always still be masked.

As for working from home, that was done to a large extent until recently, but now people are starting to come back to work.

Pubs and restaurants are now serving alcohol again although they hadn't for quite a long time.

There is still social distancing done where possible, and most places try to stick to the so-called 3Cs of reducing crowded spaces, confined spaces and close-contact settings. So although it is impossible to socially distance on trains, the windows will generally be open and everyone will be masked and talking is frowned on, etc... (not that subways and trains were ever vibrant locations for discussions, etc...)

I think as marting said, the vaccination rate combined with a high buy-in of mitigation strategies such as masking etc... has probably led to the decline.

I get really frustrated with Campbell though, because the trust that may well have been well-earned seems to be squandered by this kind of really obvious misinformation. I am just stunned that someone who people have looked up to in this pandemic is now telling his followers this kind of nonsense.
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Old 24th November 2021, 02:15 PM   #397
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What is Kory's angle?

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There was a time when I was inclined to believe Kory may have had his heart in the right place, but been mistaken. I now consider him to be a straight-up liar profiteering off the pandemic. What an absolutely disgraceful scumbag he is.
How is Kory benefitting? I have not watched him as closely as I have some others. I would agree that anyone who peddles misinformation for any sort of gain is behaving reprehensibly, whether it be for profit or for other benefits.
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Old 24th November 2021, 04:11 PM   #398
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
How is Kory benefitting? I have not watched him as closely as I have some others. I would agree that anyone who peddles misinformation for any sort of gain is behaving reprehensibly, whether it be for profit or for other benefits.
Well, he has hundreds of thousands of followers now. Even if it started out with him being genuinely convinced of ivermectin's value, I think he knows the positive feedback he gets from promoting it, and also he's found himself getting way more traction among anti-vax people, so he has been promoting anti-vax too. He's been on big name podcasts like Joe Rogan, and made a name for himself. I think he even has his own podcast. There are donate buttons on his website, he gets invited to anti-vax jamborees on tropical islands, etc...

I don't know if he is selling it himself, but some ivermectin evangelists have been caught doing that....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-...nnel/100571314
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 24th November 2021, 07:08 PM   #399
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New variant to watch very closely: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...r-of-mutations

Quote:
Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences.
Very few cases so far - let's hope it stays that way.
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Old 24th November 2021, 08:07 PM   #400
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The good and the bad

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
This is something that needs to be stressed, and we already had the excellent example of Israel, where the early vaccination turned out to be major trouble.

All countries should plan to get boosters done in the shortest time frame possible.
In the spring I used Israel as a real-world example of the effectiveness of the vaccines. Do you have a link handy that discusses the downside (as suggested above)? I found this from the NIH director's blog. Thanks.
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