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Old 20th October 2021, 06:19 AM   #241
Captain_Swoop
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Go on, then.
RoRo Ferry pitching in to a stiff sea

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Frigate pitching as it forces in to a head sea.

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Old 20th October 2021, 06:20 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
You are incorrect. The waves were not 'head on' into the swell. The waves were South Westerly like the wind, whilst the boat was travelling West North West. In effect, the port side of the vessel was taking the brunt, and in particular, the port side bow visor was subject to transverse waves, which would have a greater impact on it then face forward (which you claimed not to be able to grasp). So, no, the ship was not head onto the waves. And no, it would not have been dipping and bowing into them but rather, battered by them from the side.

The official report states that the winds were more-or-less SW - ie coming from a compass direction of around 225 degrees.

But the swell was actually coming from just less than 270 degrees (and since swell etc is described - unlike wind - using the direction of travel rather than the direction of origin, the swell would be described as just slightly north of Easterly).

And the Estonia was sailing WNW at the relevant time - ie it was sailing on a compass heading of around 295 degrees.

The angle between the ship and the swell was therefore around 145-150 degrees. Or to put it another way, the swell was approaching the ship at an angle of around 30-35 degrees to the ship's direction of travel.

And so, even though the ship wasn't sailing literally directly into the swell, it was sailing into swell that was only 30-35 degrees away from being directly opposite to the direction of the ship's travel. The Estonia, therefore, would clearly and obviously have been traversing the peaks and troughs of the swell as it moved forward. It was not sailing side-on to the swell. It was not even sailing quarter-on to the swell.

But yeah, keep these posts coming!

Last edited by LondonJohn; 20th October 2021 at 06:40 AM.
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:20 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
RoRo Ferry bow pitching in to the waves in a stiff sea.

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Oh wow!

At first it looks like there is nothing amiss, but when the true pitching starts the ship loses all forward speed, just because of the force of the waves slamming into the bow.

I don't think being a passenger on board at that time would be very much fun.
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:23 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Oh wow!

At first it looks like there is nothing amiss, but when the true pitching starts the ship loses all forward speed, just because of the force of the waves slamming into the bow.

I don't think being a passenger on board at that time would be very much fun.

Nor would it have been much fun for anyone aboard had the bow opening become significantly compromised and opened.....
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:24 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
You are incorrect. The waves were not 'head on' into the swell. The waves were South Westerly like the wind, whilst the boat was travelling West North West. In effect, the port side of the vessel was taking the brunt, and in particular, the port side bow visor was subject to transverse waves, which would have a greater impact on it then face forward (which you claimed not to be able to grasp). So, no, the ship was not head onto the waves. And no, it would not have been dipping and bowing into them but rather, battered by them from the side.
What in degrees is a he difference between the heading and the wave direction?

What point are you trying to make?
An asymmetric load on the bow is worse than dead ahead.
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:30 AM   #246
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(And incidentally, Vixen might care to note, wrt that video of the ferry digging into swell in rough seas, the flow of water along the sides of the hull. If she does so, she will see that in fact there are virtually no times at which the sea level (along the middle 3/4 of the hull's length) rises above the nominal waterline of the ship. And on the rare occasions when water does get that high, it's momentary and more akin to wash/spray than significant volumes. As opposed to the bow of the ship, which is repeatedly digging into very large volumes of water....)
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:38 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Oh wow!

At first it looks like there is nothing amiss, but when the true pitching starts the ship loses all forward speed, just because of the force of the waves slamming into the bow.

I don't think being a passenger on board at that time would be very much fun.
It's the propellers rising to the surface and being pushed deep as much as the force of the wave. Also some of the forward motion is turned in to upwards movement.
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:45 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It's the propellers rising to the surface and being pushed deep as much as the force of the wave. Also some of the forward motion is turned in to upwards movement.
Oh yes, of course. That sounds logical.

What size of waves are we talking about in the case of that ferry?
I find it very hard to estimate (me living rather far from the sea and such).
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Old 20th October 2021, 06:48 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Nor would it have been much fun for anyone aboard had the bow opening become significantly compromised and opened.....
That thought had crossed my mind, yes.
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Old 20th October 2021, 07:01 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Oh yes, of course. That sounds logical.

What size of waves are we talking about in the case of that ferry?
I find it very hard to estimate (me living rather far from the sea and such).
Judging sea state from visual indication.
https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/beaufort/beaufort.pdf

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Old 20th October 2021, 07:18 AM   #251
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Why has the discussion returned to weather? You have been told by our resident expert that the weather conditions had nothing to do with the sinking. Please return to discussing the relevant facts re submarines, hijacking, secret military operations, and other important facts.
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Old 20th October 2021, 07:19 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
From Kurm (Glasgow):



<snip>

ibid

In other words, the JAIC has had to assume, quote, "When about 2000 tons of water had entered the ship, a list of 40 degrees had developed. From that moment the waves started to break the windows and doors on deck four and five," yet if the doors and window are now found not to be broken, then the assumption fails.
You are once again conflating decks 4 & 5 with the car deck. The JAIC did not, as you falsely claimed, have to assume the doors on the car deck were compromised.
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Old 20th October 2021, 07:25 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Stop lying. The Herald of Free Enterprise only partially sank. Even Wikipedia will tell you that. You saying a thing doesn't make it so. Learn to argue honestly.
And, once again, the official report on the Herald of Free Enterprise says if it had not grounded it would have sunk entirely. This official view may well be contrary to your personal wot-I-reckon but you don't get to call anyone a liar for not adopting your utterly inexpert opinion as fact here.
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Old 20th October 2021, 07:29 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Judging sea state from visual indication.
https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/beaufort/beaufort.pdf
Hmmm.
Based on that list and the descriptions.
I’d guess, somewhere between Beaufort number 5 or 6?
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Old 20th October 2021, 07:59 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
He won't accept it.
What won't I accept? Are we back to you making all new arguments for me instead of the ones I actually made?
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:01 AM   #256
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Thumbs down

Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Hmmm.
Based on that list and the descriptions.
I’d guess, somewhere between Beaufort number 5 or 6?
6 to 7 I would guess.
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:04 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Don't forget, there is a vertical tear, as well as a horizontal one.
Yes, but only the part below the actual waterline -- not the blue paint and not the Plimsoll line -- that has any bearing on the flood rate such a hole could sustain if the injury occurred on the surface. You're the one trying to tell us this is the hole that gave us the flood rate that caused the ship to sink so quickly. Show me the numbers.

Quote:
Pretty sure one of the expedition crews confirmed it goes down as far as the swimming pool area, which is Deck 0.
Except that we can see in the photos and reconstructed images where the hole is. We can see for ourselves how it relates to the water line no matter how many towels an expedition says they saw.
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:09 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It is important to remember the bow visor explosion claim is that of Jutta Rabe/Brian Braidwood and the Fokus Group. The latter believe this did not necessarily happen above water, implying Naval activity. If you recall Braidwood spotted what looked like an unexploded device attached to the bow bulkhead in an official Rockwater tape of the scene, which then disappeared from the clip.
The bow visor was above the waterline, right?

So, how would explosions designed to cause bow visor failure be below the waterline?

If the natural failure of the bow visor couldn't explain the sinking, then neither could the intentional destruction of the bow visor -- unless it produced other substantial damage which would be current today.

Do have some consistency, Vixen. If you deny that the former explains a sinking, you must deny that the latter does too. Pretty simple logic.
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:11 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Note that if the car deck wasn't flooded, then the starboard hole doesn't explain the sinking, since it opens into the car deck.

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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
What came first? The starboard breach or the list? The JAIC believes the bow visor falling off and pulling open the car ramp door caused a flood of water into the car deck, which caused the list, which could not be rectified as the opposite ballast was full (remember we talked about centre of gravity=trim). Water into the lower decks, JAIC claim, must have come from the force of this water breaching deck 4 and 5 windows and doors. However, nobody saw the bow ramp door open nor did they see any gap at the top of it. It is a JAIC assumption, having decided the water must have come in from the bow. It is an untested hypothesis.
Um, whatever. Not at all relevant to my point.
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:02 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
You have deaded me, you rotten swine!


ETA: That's right, sod your Hitchhiker's and Python references, I'm going old school!
Is this from one of those English shows I've never heard of?
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:20 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by whoanellie View Post
Is this from one of those English shows I've never heard of?
Probably. Depends how well you know 1950s British radio comedy. But not recognising Bluebottle's catchphrase hints you're not especially familiar with The Goon Show.
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:34 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
The bow visor was above the waterline, right?

So, how would explosions designed to cause bow visor failure be below the waterline?

If the natural failure of the bow visor couldn't explain the sinking, then neither could the intentional destruction of the bow visor -- unless it produced other substantial damage which would be current today.

Do have some consistency, Vixen. If you deny that the former explains a sinking, you must deny that the latter does too. Pretty simple logic.
There is a 'theory' that the Swedish Navy blew the bow visor off after the ship sank.
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:36 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by whoanellie View Post
Is this from one of those English shows I've never heard of?
The Goons.

A Radio comedy show from the stem powered radio days.

Bluebottle was always being deaded. A character voiced by Peter Sellers.

Here's a song about some of the many ways he is deaded.

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Old 20th October 2021, 10:50 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
6 to 7 I would guess.
Let's go with 7 then.
According to your list that would make the average wave height about 4 meters (13 ft).

And the ferry in your video is about twice the size as the Estonia was.

Hmmm. One could almost say it is thought provoking.
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Old 20th October 2021, 11:16 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
RoRo Ferry bow pitching in to the waves in a stiff sea.

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You just sank her battleship.

Pretty much how I pictured it in my head. With the ramp open? Jesus, they never had a chance.
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Old 20th October 2021, 11:26 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Don't forget, there is a vertical tear, as well as a horizontal one.

Pretty sure one of the expedition crews confirmed it goes down as far as the swimming pool area, which is Deck 0.
I love how you continue to post pictures of these hull ruptures. The seems of the hull plates are clear as day, and (at least to my untrained eye) screams stress fracture. And there are no indications of damage from explosives, so the question about their cause boils down to if the ruptures occurred on the surface after Estonia rolled on her side, or were caused impact with the sea floor, or long-term stress failure from her time on the bottom.

Those, in my mind, are the three unanswered questions as far as the starboard side goes.
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Old 20th October 2021, 12:14 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Axxman300 View Post
You just sank her battleship.

Pretty much how I pictured it in my head. With the ramp open? Jesus, they never had a chance.

This one is somewhat spectacular when the ship turns in to the swell from about a minute in to the video

Also notice the effect of the wind on the trim of the ship.

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This is what it is like aboard a ship when it gets rough.

Misattributed as the Shetland ferry but it's from P&O's Pacific Sun cruise liner off New Zealand.

Gets a bit fatiguing when you have been hove-to in conditions like this for a couple of days in an Atlantic storm aboard a Frigate.

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Old 20th October 2021, 03:49 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
You have deaded me, you rotten swine!


ETA: That's right, sod your Hitchhiker's and Python references, I'm going old school!

You silly twisted boy.
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:08 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Probably. Depends how well you know 1950s British radio comedy. But not recognising Bluebottle's catchphrase hints you're not especially familiar with The Goon Show.
A little bit before my time and wrong side of the pond.
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:10 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
You silly twisted boy.

About my ten shillings...
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:12 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
You silly twisted boy.
He's fallen in the water!
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:27 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
This one is somewhat spectacular when the ship turns in to the swell from about a minute in to the video

Also notice the effect of the wind on the trim of the ship.

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This is what it is like aboard a ship when it gets rough.

Misattributed as the Shetland ferry but it's from P&O's Pacific Sun cruise liner off New Zealand.

Gets a bit fatiguing when you have been hove-to in conditions like this for a couple of days in an Atlantic storm aboard a Frigate.

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The trim should be an obvious issue when discussing the capsizing of Estonia because she had a high-profile. Along with the list she had after leaving port she was well behind the eight-ball when the visor fell off.

Again, I'm not seeing a mystery here. I'm seeing two of Murphy's Laws in play:

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

The thing that goes wrong will be the most catastrophic.

The visor fell off in heavy seas, the captain and crew did nothing, and continued to sail at flank speed into the waves.
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:35 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by Spektator View Post
He's fallen in the water!
Ladies and gentlemen, may I present your champion of champions!


Let's give him a big hand, folks. Didn't he do well?
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:13 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
RoRo Ferry bow pitching in to the waves in a stiff sea.

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At the same time cargo/car ferry ships are designed to carry a maximum draft, and thus a low plimsoll line (=nearer sea level) exactly to minimise rolling (= and/or pitching).

The issue here isn't to do with pitching.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:16 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
RoRo Ferry pitching in to a stiff sea

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Frigate pitching as it forces in to a head sea.

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One good thing came out of that, my Shazam identified the music as 'Pioneer' by Split Enz. (Sounds like a hairdressers' pun <shudder>)
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:22 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
At the same time cargo/car ferry ships are designed to carry a maximum draft, and thus a low plimsoll line (=nearer sea level) exactly to minimise rolling (= and/or pitching).

The issue here isn't to do with pitching.
What issue isn't to do with pitching?
You can see the bow completely buries up to the foredeck level.
Pitching is to do with the length and speed of the ship, height and pitch of the waves and the distribution of buoyancy in the ship.

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Old 21st October 2021, 06:30 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
And, once again, the official report on the Herald of Free Enterprise says if it had not grounded it would have sunk entirely. This official view may well be contrary to your personal wot-I-reckon but you don't get to call anyone a liar for not adopting your utterly inexpert opinion as fact here.
It certainly would have entirely sank eventually as the air in the superstructure was replaced by water seeping in. As with the MS Jan Heweliusz it surely would have floated turtle after capsizing for quite a while in open sea. The issue with the Estonia is how suddenly it sank completely. As a comparator, the Wilhelm Gustloff took circa 45 minutes and the Titanic over two hours.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:32 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It certainly would have entirely sank eventually as the air in the superstructure was replaced by water seeping in. As with the MS Jan Heweliusz it surely would have floated turtle after capsizing for quite a while in open sea. The issue with the Estonia is how suddenly it sank completely. As a comparator, the Wilhelm Gustloff took circa 45 minutes and the Titanic over two hours.
Why Would the HOFE have turned right over and floated upside down?

You keep posting this but never tell us why.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:33 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
You are once again conflating decks 4 & 5 with the car deck. The JAIC did not, as you falsely claimed, have to assume the doors on the car deck were compromised.
Soz, the car decks are decks no. 2 and 3. In effect, the JAIC is claiming that when the vessel capsized onto its starboard side, decks 4 and 5 immediately filled with water, the windows having smashed, battened down the cabin doors (cabins themselves divided into literally hundreds). This defies belief as a ship cannot float on its superstructure. Once it capsized to the side, it would have turtled within minutes ceteris paribus.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:34 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The issue with the Estonia is how suddenly it sank completely. As a comparator, the Wilhelm Gustloff took circa 45 minutes and the Titanic over two hours.
And the key issue in all of that is the flood rate, which you imply could be achieved in Estonia by the hole on the starboard side. Physics has an answer as to whether that's credible. Do you know the answer?
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