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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , DNA testing , Elizabeth Warren , lying charges , racial categorization

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Old 28th March 2018, 01:55 PM   #321
blutoski
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Thanks for the snippet

Weirdly, it popped up for me this time, although the last two times it was he heart-cell butterfly. Makes me wonder what kind of rotating algorithm they're using.

Regarding the consumer DNA testing... The cynical part of me wonders how long it will be before they start selling those data sets for analytic purposes. There could be a lot of power in having a massive set of DNA data to mine. There could also be a lot of big-brother kind of risk...

ETA: I've been kind of skeptical about the DNA testing for ancestry anyway. A friend used one for her mutt of a dog, and it came back with a breed list that couldn't possibly produce a dog that looked like her... I mean, it's horribly unlikely that chihuahua, poodle, pit-bull, and terrier is going to produce a mix that looks a lot like a whippet. Also, my Chinese friend, of Chinese descent is only 97% Chinese - the other 3% is apparently Irish somehow. And my friend with Mexican parentage is apparently 25% Japanese!

Entertaining, yes. Accurate... the analyst in me says not even a little bit. I'd guess they've got an R-squared of something like 40%
I think the complication is that they're testing alleles against current geography, and trying to translate % probability of X descent into % X descent.

Just a more numerical example for illustration, if the allele is 100% of Irish and 100% of Chinese, there's a 50% chance that this specimen has Irish relatives and 50% chance that this specimen has Chinese relatives (I know, I know... plus or minus for adjustment based on relative population size). This is not the same as being 50% Irish and 50% Chinese.

So this is where family history comes in. It can 'collapse' the probabilities into real information. In Warren's case, the family history she cites is very likely true based on its ordinariness in that region and population. An advanced (per earlier discussions, post-research, validated &c) DNA test will not likely provide much more information than we already have.
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Old 28th March 2018, 02:58 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
People no longer have patience and interest in career politicians. She is not polling well. We need someone that can survive the Twitter era. Presidents also need the outsider label now. Governors will work.

The native thing bores me. But she is stuck with it now.
She won't win or lose on the native thing, but on her policies, I think. At least I'm hopeful this is the case.

I'm not a big fan of Warren. I think she goes too far in her sense of social and economic justice. I like much of what she says, but other things make me cringe.

But I don't give a damn whether she actually has a Native American ancestor or simply believed a family story. (If it could be shown that she made it up out of whole cloth, I might care, but this is very unlikely even if she did so.)
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Old 28th March 2018, 03:19 PM   #323
ahhell
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
She won't win or lose on the native thing, but on her policies, I think. At least I'm hopeful this is the case.
Where is this land of unicorns and rainbows that you live in? She win or lose based on how many folks that show up who reflexively vote R or D.
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Old 28th March 2018, 04:25 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Where is this land of unicorns and rainbows that you live in? She win or lose based on how many folks that show up who reflexively vote R or D.
Okay. Even in that more cynical scenario, her heritage does not matter.
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