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Old 24th July 2020, 01:04 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Population of USA: 328.2 million (in 2019 according to Google)

Deaths from Covid-19: 142,755 (Both confirmed and presumed according to CDC)

Percentage of USA population dead from presumed and confirmed cases: 0.04349634% (According to calculator)

I think we will be fine.
.12% of the US population has been hospitalized with Covid. Assuming everyone gets it and the actual rate is 10x the confirmed rate, then a bit over 1% of the US population will be hospitalized. If hospitals are overwhelmed then deaths will be much higher. That shouldn't happen much because when and where it gets bad enough lockdowns will be enacted, hospital resources will be concentrated, etc., though often with some delay.

Almost all hospitalized patients have long-term negative health effects, and it appears many "asymptomatic" carriers have long-term effects such as lung damage that they don't notice.

So if almost everyone is infected, a few percent of the population will have long-term negative health effects. That could end up much higher if reinfection after a year or a few years is possible, which seems likely.

Without a vaccine, we will survive but we will not be fine.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:04 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Do you have a problem with having a conversation where you don't throw insults with every post?
Oh you mean like how you called me a liar?
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:08 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by Modified View Post
.12% of the US population has been hospitalized with Covid. Assuming everyone gets it and the actual rate is 10x the confirmed rate, then a bit over 1% of the US population will be hospitalized.
Nonsense. Many who get it will not be severe enough to go to hospital or doctor. Which is why they haven't been counted and why the CDC is estimating that many more have had it. So even if (as the CDC says) 10 times more have had it, that doesn't mean 10 times more will be in the hospital due to it.

Something like 900,000 in the USA were hospitalized with flu a couple of years ago.

Last edited by mike81; 24th July 2020 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:09 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covid-19.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...es-deaths.html

"As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths"

Probable (According to CDC)

"no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19"
You'll note that they explain what are the criteria to be counted among probable cases, and that this does not apply to all jurisdictions.

Quote:
Ask the CDC.
I'm asking you. This is not what the link you've provided says.

Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
There have not been 145,000 confirmed deaths. The CDC admits this. Yes, in my calculation that shows about .04% of USA population dead
That is completely irrelevant. The question is about how deadly the virus is. Until it's had a chance to infect the maximum amount of people you don't know how deadly it's going to be, globally. Currently in the US it has a 3.5% death rate, which is 35 times more deadly than the flu.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:11 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Oh you mean like how you called me a liar?
First of all, a tu quoque is a bad form of argument.

Second, where have I done this?

Third, that is irrelevant to my point that you are consistently personalising the discussion for no reason but to boast of your own intelligence. Stop that.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:16 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post

Third, that is irrelevant to my point that you are consistently personalising the discussion for no reason but to boast of your own intelligence. Stop that.
Nice to know you know my intent even though we have never met and you can't read minds.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:18 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Nice to know you know my intent even though we have never met and you can't read minds.
You do understand that we actually do infer people's intent through their actions, right? All the ******* time.

Now, how about you focus more on the discussion and less on the participants? I notice you ignored my request to support your accusation.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:23 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
First of all, a tu quoque is a bad form of argument.

Second, where have I done this?

Third, that is irrelevant to my point that you are consistently personalising the discussion for no reason but to boast of your own intelligence. Stop that.
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
You do understand that we actually do infer people's intent through their actions, right? All the ******* time.

Now, how about you focus more on the discussion and less on the participants? I notice you ignored my request to support your accusation.
Infer a you want. You are wrong.

I have supported my position. Read again if questions remain.

I'm done. For real this time. Got better things to do.

Last edited by mike81; 24th July 2020 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:25 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
You are wrong.
Then stop treating other posters like crap.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:37 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Then stop treating other posters like crap.
I've been treated like crap by many on here. I've been called a liar, racist, Trump supporter (Trump's an idiot), and other things all for disagreeing with other members. The same thing has happened to other members also. So if I've let being irritated by those things carry over into this thread, I'm sorry.

It's not my intent to treat anyone like crap. Sorry if I took anything out on you. That, however, does not mean I'm wrong about what I have said.

Last edited by mike81; 24th July 2020 at 01:40 PM.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:40 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
I've been treated like crap by many on here. I've been called a liar, racist, and other things all for disagreeing with other members. The same thing has happened to other members also. So if I've let being irritated by those things carry over into this thread, I'm sorry.

It's not my intent to treat anyone like crap. Sorry if I took anything out on you.
Meh, don't worry about it. I don't hold grudges.

I just want to get to the bottom of your claim. I think you're underestimating this disease.
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Old 24th July 2020, 01:46 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Meh, don't worry about it. I don't hold grudges.

I just want to get to the bottom of your claim. I think you're underestimating this disease.

That's possible. I admit I could be wrong. Others also could be wrong. This could be an overreaction all because it was new.

I'm mostly basing my opinion on the percentages that I state and what the CDC has said about the numbers. If something changes that makes it seem worse, then I will reevaluate my position. Just as others should if the numbers change in a way that shows they may be wrong.
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:14 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
That's possible. I admit I could be wrong. Others also could be wrong. This could be an overreaction all because it was new.

I'm mostly basing my opinion on the percentages that I state and what the CDC has said about the numbers. If something changes that makes it seem worse, then I will reevaluate my position. Just as others should if the numbers change in a way that shows they may be wrong.
Fair enough.

I am concerned, however, by your reluctance with masks. I really think you should look that up because to my knowledge there is no health risk associated, and tested or not I think it's a good idea to wear them to limit the spread of the virus, which as I've noted is 35 times more deadly than the flu (to answer your earlier objection).
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:28 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"LOL it's no worse than the flu."

Does everyone who denies reality get the same script delivered to them?
It seems that way - hence my pinned tweet thread:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status...54955778314240
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:30 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
80,000 people died of the flu a couple of years ago. According to CDC, more have died of Covid-19, but again that includes untested and people who died of other things. For all we know, Covid-19 has killed less or about the same. The data is all screwed up because of the BS political games.
We also know from the excess deaths stats that it's an underestimate.
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:31 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
No it doesn't. Someone run over by a car isn't counted as a COVID death.
I always use the case of George Floyd, because most people have heard of him.
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:32 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Do you not care about the ones who die of flu? I mean if you do, then I guess we should do this BS for the flu too.
Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
That's possible. I admit I could be wrong. Others also could be wrong. This could be an overreaction all because it was new.

I'm mostly basing my opinion on the percentages that I state and what the CDC has said about the numbers. If something changes that makes it seem worse, then I will reevaluate my position. Just as others should if the numbers change in a way that shows they may be wrong.
This is nothing like the 2009 H1N1. If anything it's more like the 1918 N1H1 and people didn't have the tools we have today.

This really isn't like the flu though. I don't understand with all the news why people don't understand that.

Cases are filling hospitals and ICU and overwhelming them. And patients stay longer than usual even if they die.That affects people needing treatment for other things.

Health care workers have caught this virus at an exceptionally high rate. Many of them have died.

People that don't die are left with lung scarring that will be permanent.

Some people are having blood clotting abnormalities leading to pulmonary emboli and strokes.

Some people are having encephalitis where the virus invades their brains.

So the death rate is not the only thing we need to measure to know what toll this virus is actually taking.

And I haven't even gotten to the economic costs this is creating.

We know if everyone wears a mask when they leave their houses we could knock this thing back in a few weeks. Instead we have people acting like toddlers having a temper tantrum who won't put a piddly little mask on.

Maybe if/when we get highly reliable tests people can take at home that give instant results people can test themselves instead of wearing masks. Chances are that won't be anytime soon. While wearing masks for a few weeks the economy could get opened up, the hospitals can go back to a normal census, nurses will stop dying.

But no, we have people who think they don't owe the communities they live in one minor ******* inconvenience.
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:40 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
We also know from the excess deaths stats that it's an underestimate.
Indeed.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/d...lyExcessDeaths
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:49 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
I don't think it is a conspiracy. I just think it's blown out of proportion because people got scared and overreacted. All I have done is show the numbers. Is math a conspiracy theory too? About .04% of the USA population has died from Covid-19 according to the CDC inflated (intentional or not) numbers.

No you havenít, youíve just asserted some claims.
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Old 24th July 2020, 02:51 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
No, what I did was do some math and show CDC numbers. I then drew conclusions from that data.

Here's some math you might want to consider. Let's suppose your community is in a fairly open phase, because the number of Covid-19 cases is roughly steady, even slowly decreasing over time, with an R of 0.97. It's the fact that most people are wearing masks, along with enacting other restrictions, that allows that openness, so that facilities and services are available, even if on a somewhat limited basis. But you don't wear a mask, because you don't have to and don't think you need to, and because you get tested often. If you're using those services and facilities, you're benefiting from others' cooperation, without cooperating yourself. (But that's not the main issue.)

Then, one day, your test is positive. That could happen, right? Of course it could. Why else would you get tested often?

So what does that positive test mean? You've been going around with no mask; the likelihood that you've already spread the virus to someone else by the time you get your test result is at least the current R value. But we can calculate farther: the likelihood that person who got it from you spreads it to a third person is thus the square of the R value. The likelihood of a third person is the cube of the R value, and so forth. With the simple formula for the sum of an infinite geometric series, and knowing that R is .97, we can calculate that the expected number of people infected directly and indirectly by you is 1/(1-.97) = 33.

With a case fatality rate of 3%, the expected number of resulting deaths from 33 infections is 1.

In other words, the moment you get your positive test result, you can be almost certain that you've killed someone.

Of course, you can hope you got very lucky and against the odds, didn't spread it to anyone while you were asymptomatic before you got your test result. Or that you got very lucky and none of the people who will eventually get it indirectly from you are vulnerable enough or unfortunate enough to die. Or that the numbers aren't valid because there are "up to" ten times as many undetected cases yet somehow you figure you didn't spread any of those. Would you find any of those possibilities very comforting?
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Old 24th July 2020, 03:04 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Here's some math you might want to consider. Let's suppose your community is in a fairly open phase, because the number of Covid-19 cases is roughly steady, even slowly decreasing over time, with an R of 0.97. It's the fact that most people are wearing masks, along with enacting other restrictions, that allows that openness, so that facilities and services are available, even if on a somewhat limited basis. But you don't wear a mask, because you don't have to and don't think you need to, and because you get tested often. If you're using those services and facilities, you're benefiting from others' cooperation, without cooperating yourself. (But that's not the main issue.)

Then, one day, your test is positive. That could happen, right? Of course it could. Why else would you get tested often?

So what does that positive test mean? You've been going around with no mask; the likelihood that you've already spread the virus to someone else by the time you get your test result is at least the current R value. But we can calculate farther: the likelihood that person who got it from you spreads it to a third person is thus the square of the R value. The likelihood of a third person is the cube of the R value, and so forth. With the simple formula for the sum of an infinite geometric series, and knowing that R is .97, we can calculate that the expected number of people infected directly and indirectly by you is 1/(1-.97) = 33.

With a case fatality rate of 3%, the expected number of resulting deaths from 33 infections is 1.

In other words, the moment you get your positive test result, you can be almost certain that you've killed someone.

Of course, you can hope you got very lucky and against the odds, didn't spread it to anyone while you were asymptomatic before you got your test result. Or that you got very lucky and none of the people who will eventually get it indirectly from you are vulnerable enough or unfortunate enough to die. Or that the numbers aren't valid because there are "up to" ten times as many undetected cases yet somehow you figure you didn't spread any of those. Would you find any of those possibilities very comforting?

Edited by Agatha:  Edited to remove breach of rule 12
Odds are I'll be and most others will be fine.

Last edited by Agatha; 25th July 2020 at 02:46 AM.
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Old 24th July 2020, 03:25 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Edited by Agatha:  Edited to match quoted post
? Odds are I'll be and most others will be fine.
Health care workers of America (or whichever country you're from) salute you.

As of a month ago: Lost on the Frontline - Covid-19 healthcare worker death toll: 821 deaths under investigation

Want to see their faces, their kids, their husbands who won't be fine?

The Guardian has partnered with Kaiser Health News in an effort to document every US healthcare worker who dies from Covid-19
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Old 24th July 2020, 03:37 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Edited by Agatha:  Edited to match quoted post
Odds are I'll be and most others will be fine.
I thought his post was well-written, reasonable and tone-neutral. Why do you take it so personally?
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Old 24th July 2020, 03:43 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
With a case fatality rate of 3%, the expected number of resulting deaths from 33 infections is 1.
Shouldn't you be using Infection Fatality Rate here instead of Case Fatality Rate?
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Old 24th July 2020, 04:02 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Shouldn't you be using Infection Fatality Rate here instead of Case Fatality Rate?
In this case, I think CFR is appropriate, because the Rt he's using is also based on diagnosed cases, and doesn't include asymptomatic cases.

It's too early right now to determine the infection rate, because we really don't know the asymptomatic and undiagnosed volume. It's the same reason that I recommenced against using the population as the denominator in one of the earlier posts. It's simply too early to have that information.
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Old 24th July 2020, 04:13 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Nonsense. Many who get it will not be severe enough to go to hospital or doctor. Which is why they haven't been counted and why the CDC is estimating that many more have had it. So even if (as the CDC says) 10 times more have had it, that doesn't mean 10 times more will be in the hospital due to it.
Yes, that would be nonsense if I had said that.

I was using an old number for cases and a new one for hospitalizations though. Current number seems to be 4.17 million confirmed/suspected, so at 10x that would be 17% of the population infected, meaning that if everyone eventually gets it and the same proportion will be hospitalized, then that will be about .7% of the population.

At a conservative 10x Covid has over 5 times the hospitalization rate as the average flu, and it spreads much more easily. Flu is horrible enough.
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Old 24th July 2020, 04:26 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Shouldn't you be using Infection Fatality Rate here instead of Case Fatality Rate?
If they use the IFR, things might not seem so bad. We can't have that now can we? Earlier I said the mortality rate is about .5%. I was using the IFR that I remember reading not too long ago.

Every number I have said is from the CDC (unless there is a number I mentioned that I've forgot about), but I'm still somehow wrong according to some. Disagree about the conclusions, but the numbers are all straight from the CDC. The fact that they are counting people as Covid-19 without testing is straight from the CDC website. So is the fact that they have said something like 10 times as many have been infected than the numbers show. Which means a large portion of us have been infected and never even knew it, didn't get too sick, or didn't have to go to the doctor/hospital.

If some (not meaning you d4m10n) want to continue with the fear mongering and talking points, go ahead.

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Old 24th July 2020, 05:01 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
In this case, I think CFR is appropriate, because the Rt he's using is also based on diagnosed cases, and doesn't include asymptomatic cases.
To compute the actual expected value of COVID-19 deaths from a single carrier you'd need the true R value and the actual IFR, from where I'm sitting. You'd also need a different formula if it turns out R>1, which it likely is.

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Old 25th July 2020, 03:27 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Not this *again*.

I don't know if there is a particular problem with bee stings in the US, but I am fairly certain that there haven't been 65,000 deaths from bee stings in the UK this year.


0.5% to 2% mortality, 5%-10% too ill to work for more than a month, of whom many have life-changing health damage.

But maybe bee stings are a big problem where you are.
Well, here in AfricanKillerBee County we're preparing for our annual Nest Ball competition....
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Old 25th July 2020, 03:47 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
If they use the IFR, things might not seem so bad. We can't have that now can we? Earlier I said the mortality rate is about .5%. I was using the IFR that I remember reading not too long ago.

Every number I have said is from the CDC (unless there is a number I mentioned that I've forgot about), but I'm still somehow wrong according to some. Disagree about the conclusions, but the numbers are all straight from the CDC. The fact that they are counting people as Covid-19 without testing is straight from the CDC website. So is the fact that they have said something like 10 times as many have been infected than the numbers show. Which means a large portion of us have been infected and never even knew it, didn't get too sick, or didn't have to go to the doctor/hospital.

If some (not meaning you d4m10n) want to continue with the fear mongering and talking points, go ahead.
But by your math, heart disease isn't really an issue in the US either.
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Old 25th July 2020, 07:40 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by Stout View Post
Some of it is, for sure but a lot of it isn't, IMO and I'm more addressing the refusal to acknowledge that there are reasons people object to and protest the requirement to wear a mask other than being on the "far right" I'm also talking IRL experiences and wondering whether real life is actually beginning to reflect the Internet with all of this far right/far left stuff we see hurled about on a daily basis.

The people I've talked to about their resistance to wear a mask would be horrified if they got called far right for it and I would agree. They're mostly anti-vax conspiracy theorists, some of whom used to wear a mask ( right at the beginning of the pandemic ) but have since relaxed that practice due to, well, pretty much hating the things.



A funny thing happened locally in the early days of the pandemic. Somebody on our local Reddit posted a photo of a woman selling masks on the street, $5. There was a big hullabaloo and since she was literally just up the street I went and talked to her. They were hand made cloth masks, just like we see everywhere now and designed to help prevent the wearer from spreading the virus. "Just like they wear in Asia", she told me. I told her about the Reddit thread, she said "whatever" I bought one and off I went.

That was back in the day when social distancing was a really big thing. People crossing the street to avoid oncoming pedestrians, playgrounds wrapped in barbed wire, most stores closed...Karens in the media and social media complaining about pretty much everyone. Introverts were loving "the new normal"......

Then all the mental health stuff started happening which, IMO, forced quite a lot of people to not only throw caution to the wind but actively oppose pandemic control measures and want to get on with their lives.

Lucky for us, we don't have a city wide mask requirement, it could happen but as of writing it's up to the individual stores and business whether they want mask wearers only. Should that change, then I'll have to dig out the black balaclava.
Interesting points! Thanks for a detailed response.

Personally, I haven't been out much, so I haven't gotten to see too much of the resistance firsthand. I had a cooking disaster last week and decided to go get a sandwich from the deli, where a boorish older man was waltzing around without a mask and commenting to his maskless wife about all the dumbasses wearing masks. He was obviously trying to start something, but no one was even half-biting. Was it political, or was he just drunk/in a mood? No idea. I ended up leaving. I kind of assumed it was something in that vein, though, just based on the brazen attitude he was affecting.
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Old 25th July 2020, 08:01 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by Disbelief View Post
But by your math, heart disease isn't really an issue in the US either.
And, like heart disease, mortality is only the tip of the iceberg. Morbidity is also hugely important.

Looking at the data from the COVIDZOE

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term

about 10% of cases have COVID for three weeks or more. This is consistent with other data.
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Old 25th July 2020, 09:08 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
If you donít believe that masks restrict airflow, try running uphill while wearing one.
I have.
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Old 25th July 2020, 09:24 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Spaniards such as these where they are having a maskless mass protest calling for Bill Gates to be locked up?
I recommend preemptively spraying such gatherings with a suitable agent. Diphenylchlorarsine is a good choice.
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Old 25th July 2020, 09:27 AM   #275
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From the UK:

https://twitter.com/LaraCrabb/status...76458144583681

I particularly liked the bit where she said people were "avoiding me like the plague" which I think was their point.

And the reply video:

https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/sta...46631883067398
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Old 25th July 2020, 09:36 AM   #276
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I noticed two customers in Tesco today who were not wearing masks; I don't know if anything was said to them when they entered the shop. I didn't notice anyone saying anything to them; I kept my distance. Most of the staff were wearing either masks or face shields.
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Old 25th July 2020, 10:08 AM   #277
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In Arizona, where masks have been mostly required for over a month, we are seeing significant improvement in the stats (with the unfortunate exception of deaths, which are a lagging indicator). The percentage of tests coming back positive was in the 20-25% range a month ago, now it's in the 10-15% range. That's still not good, but at least it shows the right trend. Hospital admissions are down, ICU bed availability up, etc.

Mask usage before the requirement was maybe 50%, now it's probably in the 90-95% range. And yes, if I see someone in the store without a mask I avoid him like the plague.
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Old 27th July 2020, 04:59 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
In Arizona, where masks have been mostly required for over a month, we are seeing significant improvement in the stats (with the unfortunate exception of deaths, which are a lagging indicator). The percentage of tests coming back positive was in the 20-25% range a month ago, now it's in the 10-15% range. That's still not good, but at least it shows the right trend. Hospital admissions are down, ICU bed availability up, etc.

Mask usage before the requirement was maybe 50%, now it's probably in the 90-95% range. And yes, if I see someone in the store without a mask I avoid him like the plague.
Here in Massachusetts, I've only encountered one person in an indoor space not wearing a mask, and that was a man at my laundromat. I regularly see him as we seem to share the same weekly laundry schedule, and, based on his behavior, he seems to have a pretty severe mental disability. I don't think this was intentional contrarianism but rather innocent negligence.

Other than that, mask compliance indoors is quite good. Outside seems to be a different story, with some not bothering to mask up while passing on sidewalks or other somewhat more crowded spaces.

Massachusetts had a decent number of cases during the initial US outbreaks, so there's not much need to scare people into compliance. A nursing home in my town had double digit deaths.
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Old 27th July 2020, 05:40 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
I don't think it is a conspiracy. I just think it's blown out of proportion because people got scared and overreacted. All I have done is show the numbers. Is math a conspiracy theory too? About .04% of the USA population has died from Covid-19 according to the CDC inflated (intentional or not) numbers.
One death is a tragedy.

149 852 deaths, as of today, and rising, is obviously just statistics.
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Old 27th July 2020, 12:37 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
To compute the actual expected value of COVID-19 deaths from a single carrier you'd need the true R value and the actual IFR, from where I'm sitting. You'd also need a different formula if it turns out R>1, which it likely is.

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In a perfect world, yes. But... we don't have true R value, and we don't have IFR. CFR relative to Rt is the next best option.
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