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Old 21st May 2022, 06:43 AM   #41
arthwollipot
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Yeah I'm done too.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:51 AM   #42
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Great speech Allbo
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:52 AM   #43
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Great relief in our household. Time to start repairing the damage...tomorrow. Night all.
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Old 21st May 2022, 07:07 AM   #44
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Looking at the various seats in doubt and I found something kinda interesting. If Macnamara comes down to Labor vs Greens then there's a good chance Labor will win it based on LNP preferences assuming most voters follow the how to vote card.
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Old 21st May 2022, 02:51 PM   #45
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Nice to see some sanity return to West Island!

And this:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Wow. 9.9% swing to Labor in WA.
Gives the absolute lie to the right-wing spin that the West Australians were going hard for Morrison after the alleged debacle of the state gov't.

I'm picking you'll be seeing Jacinda make a trip to visit very shortly to start trying to repair the damage Morrison has done.
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Old 21st May 2022, 03:47 PM   #46
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Went to bed happy, woke up happy.

Except, I was really hoping the Dutton would lose his seat, I'm still hoping...

On the ABC Simon Birmingham was saying: "We'll have to go back to our roots, get in touch with why we're Liberals."

I hope that is what they do, because people are awake to why they are Liberals and that's why they were voted out.

And a quick note for our American readers...

Don't forget that the Australian Liberal party (and all the rag tags that they have to join up with to form governments) are RIGHT WING.
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Old 21st May 2022, 04:18 PM   #47
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Question

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Went to bed happy, woke up happy.

Except, I was really hoping the Dutton would lose his seat, I'm still hoping...

On the ABC Simon Birmingham was saying: "We'll have to go back to our roots, get in touch with why we're Liberals."

I hope that is what they do, because people are awake to why they are Liberals and that's why they were voted out.

And a quick note for our American readers...

Don't forget that the Australian Liberal party (and all the rag tags that they have to join up with to form governments) are RIGHT WING.
As I said earlier (I think, itís been an ďemotionalĒ night) I want Dutton to survive and be Liberal leader. That would guarantee a decade government for Labor.
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Old 21st May 2022, 04:23 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
As I said earlier (I think, itís been an ďemotionalĒ night) I want Dutton to survive and be Liberal leader. That would guarantee a decade government for Labor.
I would like him to be the Lib leader for now. And lots and lots of repeated internal power squabbles trying to unseat him. Because the (slightly) wiser Lib apparatchiks would realise Dutton is a guaranteed loser electorally and he needs to be replaced with a winnable moderate, but they never have enough clout to actually take him down. Meanwhile, Labor.
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Old 21st May 2022, 04:33 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I would like him to be the Lib leader for now. And lots and lots of repeated internal power squabbles trying to unseat him. Because the (slightly) wiser Lib apparatchiks would realise Dutton is a guaranteed loser electorally and he needs to be replaced with a winnable moderate, but they never have enough clout to actually take him down. Meanwhile, Labor.
They havenít had the clout to date but this has been a rude awakening.
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Old 21st May 2022, 04:44 PM   #50
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In other news Rex Patrick and Nick Xenophon have managed to halve each other's Senate votes in South Australia, keeping them both out.

Hooray!

The One Notion party looks likely to win a South Australian Senate seat, so not all good news...
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Old 21st May 2022, 05:10 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Great speech Allbo
Turned out to be more interesting than watching paint dry.
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Old 21st May 2022, 05:46 PM   #52
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One disappointing outcome is Kristina Kennelly didn’t get up. She has talent and will come back.

And I think the Teals and possibly the Greens will drop back next election if Albo turns out to be a decent leader. The Greens and independents benefitted from a huge protest/anti Scomo vote.
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Old 21st May 2022, 05:46 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Albo will be a poor PM, but much better than Scomo.

Why negative about Albo?

A mate of mine, who used to be a Labor MP, has lots of time for Albo.
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Old 21st May 2022, 05:48 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
One disappointing outcome is Kristina Kennelly didn’t get up. She has talent and will come back.

And I think the Teals and possibly the Greens will drop back next election if Albo turns out to be a decent leader. The Greens and independents benefitted from a huge protest/anti Scomo vote.
If being a decent leader means he addresses housing, wage stagnation, and environment. He will not get away with being Liberal lite. We also need to get away from duopolies. More voices in Parliament is a good thing. I hope the Green vote grows and fills the vacuum Labor is leaving as it drifts right.

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Old 21st May 2022, 05:51 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Why negative about Albo?

A mate of mine, who used to be a Labor MP, has lots of time for Albo.
I will admit he had some good moments in the past two weeks, but I find him uninspiring. Gillard and Rudd were not great PMs, but I rate them much higher than Albo, and he is not within light years of Hawke, Keating and Whitlam.

But, as I said, still better than Scomo.
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Old 21st May 2022, 05:56 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I will admit he had some good moments in the past two weeks, but I find him uninspiring. Gillard and Rudd were not great PMs, but I rate them much higher than Albo, and he is not within light years of Hawke, Keating and Whitlam.

But, as I said, still better than Scomo.
We dont need sexy orators who never fluff the lines. We need honesty and vision for Australian society. Corporations casualising the workforce and paying as little as they can get away with needs to be put in check. Our parents and people our age need to lower the ladder again and give the kids the job and home ownership opportunities that we had.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:05 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
We dont need sexy orators who never fluff the lines. We need honesty and vision for Australian society. Corporations casualising the workforce and paying as little as they can get away with needs to be put in check. Our parents and people our age need to lower the ladder again and give the kids the job and home ownership opportunities that we had.
I donít disagree with this. But Laborís vote is down too. I donít think this election was decided on policies given how similar the policies of both major parties are. Labor deliberately made themselves a small target and got barely a third of the vote.

Yes Albo got the result, but when Scomo and covid are well in the past, Albo will need to stand up. Iím not certain he can. His past has been the consummate Labor machine man, not an accomplished leader.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:11 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I don’t disagree with this. But Labor’s vote is down too. I don’t think this election was decided on policies given how similar the policies of both major parties are. Labor deliberately made themselves a small target and got barely a third of the vote.

Yes Albo got the result, but when Scomo and covid are well in the past, Albo will need to stand up. I’m not certain he can. His past has been the consummate Labor machine man, not an accomplished leader.
I am pretty sure it was on those policies that the Greens and teals ate a good bit if Labor’s lunch on election day. Albo is going to have to be bold and look after the workers and climate.

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Old 21st May 2022, 06:18 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
I am pretty sure it was on those policies that the Greens and teals ate a good bit if Laborís lunch on election day. Albo is going to have to be bold and look after the workers and climate.
Again, I agree.

Meanwhile we have to wait to see if Labor gets a majority, which looks likely. I wonder if they will give the Greens the environment portfolio and form a coalition? I would be happy with this, but doubt it will happen.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:19 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
I am pretty sure it was on those policies that the Greens and teals ate a good bit if Laborís lunch on election day. Albo is going to have to be bold and look after the workers and climate.
If he is wise, and he seems to be, he will certainly realise the slippage of Labor support to Green and teal issues, and will embrace these issues to be dealt with by the Labor government. That will almost certainly give him an unassailable practical parliamentary majority, plus keep the "protesters" on Labor's side for future reference. It also consigns the Dutton/Hanson/Katter critters to become a small enclave of harrumphing troglodytes.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:20 PM   #61
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Also, the Libs were counting on a backlash against Andrews in Victoria. What a ******* stupid strategy.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:21 PM   #62
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It’s the vibe of the thing. This has been a big reset. Be interesting to see if our media fight back with this or lean into it. If only they would sack the Sky After Dark team for being irelevant harrumphing troglodytes. This is a day we can dream.

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Old 21st May 2022, 06:22 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
If he is wise, and he seems to be, he will certainly realise the slippage of Labor support to Green and teal issues, and will embrace these issues to be dealt with by the Labor government. That will almost certainly give him an unassailable practical parliamentary majority, plus keep the "protesters" on Labor's side for future reference. It also consigns the Dutton/Hanson/Katter critters to become a small enclave of harrumphing troglodytes.
Yes, agree with this as well.

What do you think of a Labor/Green coalition? It will also likely give Labor a Senate majority as well.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:34 PM   #64
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Just listened to Simon Birmingham. He’s a senator so cannot be Liberal leader, but they could do far worse.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:36 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Yes, agree with this as well.

What do you think of a Labor/Green coalition? It will also likely give Labor a Senate majority as well.
Hopefully Albo is in talks with them starting last week.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:37 PM   #66
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How long before a winning Victorian liberal member (how many are left?) decides to retire due to family or personal reasons and Josh parachutes in? I doubt it would work any way.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:39 PM   #67
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Tim Wilson given the boot is delicious.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:40 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Just listened to Simon Birmingham. He’s a senator so cannot be Liberal leader, but they could do far worse.
They could have had Julie Bishop, who would have been an excellent conservative leader. But they chose Scomo instead. So it doesn't matter if Birmingham is suitable or not. After making The Mad Monk leader, then dumping him for Mediocre Malcolm, then "maneuvering" Scomo in instead of Bishop, the Libs are almost certain to continue that trend and select the worst possible choice available. "Potato Head" Dutton is that choice.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:40 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Hopefully Albo is in talks with them starting last week.
It would alienate some rusted on ALP supporters, but it would be a very smart move.
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Old 21st May 2022, 06:43 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
It would alienate some rusted on ALP supporters, but it would be a very smart move.
Some of the Labor limpets voted Independent this time around as a protest. Just ask Christine "Parachutes" Kenneally. So they are not as rusted on as the Labor machine might think. The Libs were not the only ones to get a kick in the pants, even if it was much smaller.
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Old 21st May 2022, 07:03 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
In other news Rex Patrick and Nick Xenophon have managed to halve each other's Senate votes in South Australia, keeping them both out.

Hooray!

The One Notion party looks likely to win a South Australian Senate seat, so not all good news...
Thing is, I'd prefer Xenophon or Patrick as SA Senators than a PHON candidate.

I don't really understand the rise of PHON in SA. They picked up a seat in the LC as well last election.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
One disappointing outcome is Kristina Kennelly didnít get up. She has talent and will come back.
Probably. But they have to find a better seat to parachute her in to.

Quote:
And I think the Teals and possibly the Greens will drop back next election if Albo turns out to be a decent leader. The Greens and independents benefitted from a huge protest/anti Scomo vote.
Yes. But I think some of that will also depend on what the Liberals do as they reorganise. If they decide to more further right then the teals will probably keep winning their seats as the Liberals keep moving further and further away from the beliefs of those electorate.

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
If he is wise, and he seems to be, he will certainly realise the slippage of Labor support to Green and teal issues, and will embrace these issues to be dealt with by the Labor government. That will almost certainly give him an unassailable practical parliamentary majority, plus keep the "protesters" on Labor's side for future reference. It also consigns the Dutton/Hanson/Katter critters to become a small enclave of harrumphing troglodytes.
It's hard to say. Labor seems to be in alignment with the Greens and Teals in a lot of the major issues that were campaigned on, so in those cases it should work out in that sense. One of the issues is that if Labor does anything publicly with the Greens you're going to get a bunch of "coalitions are bad, it'll turn us into an unstable country like Italy" from a media that spends their time supporting a coalition.

Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Itís the vibe of the thing. This has been a big reset. Be interesting to see if our media fight back with this or lean into it. If only they would sack the Sky After Dark team for being irelevant harrumphing troglodytes. This is a day we can dream.
Considering the amount of cope Sales had last night, they're probably going to keep up the anti-Labor rhetoric. I wonder how long until all the Liberal's debt magically becomes Labor's.
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Old 21st May 2022, 07:47 PM   #72
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The only remaining LNP members are Nationals and very right Liberals. I simply can’t see them capturing the middle for a generation. A Labor/Green coalition would be a juggernaut that would be very hard to beat.
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Old 21st May 2022, 07:57 PM   #73
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I don't get it. Your conservatives lost an election and they just roll over, play dead and concede? When does the attempted coup begin?
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Old 21st May 2022, 08:03 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
I don't get it. Your conservatives lost an election and they just roll over, play dead and concede? When does the attempted coup begin?
I think the conservatives will just go back and review their share portfolios and directorships. They know Labor will not impact their ability to earn money.
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Old 21st May 2022, 08:09 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Some of the Labor limpets voted Independent this time around as a protest. Just ask Christine "Parachutes" Kenneally. So they are not as rusted on as the Labor machine might think. The Libs were not the only ones to get a kick in the pants, even if it was much smaller.
Yes they did and some Labor voters went with Greens. I know people who did these things.
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Old 21st May 2022, 08:29 PM   #76
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Right now the Liberal MP in Sturt is leading by only 63 votes. This was a safe Liberal seat going into the election.

And a similar thing in Menzies where the Liberal candidate is only ahead by 45 votes.

There have been some massive swings towards the Labor in safe Liberal seats this election.
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Old 21st May 2022, 09:51 PM   #77
psionl0
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
I don't get it. Your conservatives lost an election and they just roll over, play dead and concede? When does the attempted coup begin?
There was no POTUS election for anybody to spit the dummy over.
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Old 21st May 2022, 10:09 PM   #78
Sideroxylon
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
There was no POTUS election for anybody to spit the dummy over.
What is the distinction you are making here? When we go to the polls there is a sense in which we are choosing our prime minister.
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Old 21st May 2022, 10:10 PM   #79
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Current state of play

Political pundits have already given Labor a majority win. However, they need 76 seats for a majority. ATM the state if play is Labor: 71 seats, LNP 51, Greens 3, Others 12 with 14 seats undecided. The LNP had a big swing away from them this election but the votes didn't go to Labor - except in WA which was enough for Labor to claim victory.

In the Senate, the current state of play is LNP 30 seats, Labor 25 seats, Greens 12 seats, Lambie 2 seats and ON 1 seat with 6 seats undecided. Labor needs to control 40 Senate seats to pass legislation which seems unlikely even with Greens support.

So far, Albanese has ruled out forming a coalition so it remains to be seen how effective he will be.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/election...t=az&state=all
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Old 21st May 2022, 10:39 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
What is the distinction you are making here? When we go to the polls there is a sense in which we are choosing our prime minister.
Exactly. People, young people in particular, say they voted for Morrison or Albanese. Voting for a local member nobody knows virtually doesnít happen.
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