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Tags | abortion laws , political predictions , prediction thread , Roe v. Wade |
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View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned | ![]() |
Before 31 December 2020 |
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20 | 18.35% |
Before 31 December 2022 |
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27 | 24.77% |
Before 31 December 2024 |
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9 | 8.26% |
SCOTUS will not pick a case up |
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16 | 14.68% |
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn |
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37 | 33.94% |
Voters: 109. You may not vote on this poll |
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#161 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 34,156
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#162 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,747
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Non Roe v Wade attack angle example:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/planned-parenthood-missouri-last-abortion-clinic-says-it-may-lose-its-license-this-week-exclusive-2019-05-28/ |
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#164 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 18,745
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Well, it looks like a few companies might have the right idea:
From: https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-48457401 Bob Iger, the CEO of Disney says Georgia's controversial new anti-abortion law would make it "difficult" for the company to keep filming there. ... Earlier this week, Netflix said it would "rethink" its operations there with chief content officer Ted Sarandos explaining: "We have many women working on productions in Georgia, whose rights, along with millions of others, will be severely restricted by this law" ... Comedy actress and writer Kristen Wiig also confirmed to CNN that her new comedy had pulled out of filming in the state while the executive producers of a new Amazon show The Power said it was no longer scouting for filming locations in Georgia because of the controversial bill. Given the way that republicans have manage to stack the judiciary, I think economic pressure may be the best way to go. A lot of movies and TV shows are filmed in Georgia (thanks in part to government subsidies), but if production companies (and other businesses) start leaving the state, it may cause them to rethink their stance. The same thing sort of happened in North Carolina... the state brought in a law regarding trans people and their use of the bathroom, which was widely criticized. Several businesses threatened to either pull out of the state, or stop planned expansion plans. As a result the state backed off its initial plans. (They still have some problems with their laws, but economic pressure did force them to back off the worst of their plans.) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...der/729791002/ |
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#165 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,033
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The only way to stop this communist conspiracy of pro-choice activism is to make all companies state-owned and make them to their business in Georgia.
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"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips |
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#166 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: central Illinois
Posts: 39,700
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I suspect you are a sandwich, metaphorically speaking. -Donn And a shot rang out. Now Space is doing time... -Ben Burch You built the toilet - don't complain when people crap in it. _Kid Eager Never underestimate the power of the Random Number God. More of evolutionary history is His doing than people think. - Dinwar |
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#168 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#169 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 18,745
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#170 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#171 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#172 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 18,745
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It doesn't have to affect the attitudes of hardcore anti-abortionists.
It only has to affect the people who only pretend to be anti-abortion, but are using the issue to either score cheap political points with the more feeble-minded evangelicals, or to further their bigotry. If the economy starts to go south, all those republicans who claim to be godly (but are anything but) will see their chances of re-election go down the tubes. That's going to make a few of them change their stance. |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#173 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 8,394
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#174 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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Is that a lesson in how to look like a complete idiot?
The source is irrelevant - the points stated are correct. Rhode Island |
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#175 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 8,394
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#176 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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You are completely full of it.
I have not stated I think Roe will be overturned. Your "argument" that the Republican states aren't trying to overturn it is nonsense in view of the states who are trying to ban abortion right now. As to bias[ed] sources, my apologies - I didn't realise Whitehouse.gov and Mike Pence were biased.
Originally Posted by Mike Pence
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...tute-luncheon/ You're right - I don't understand US politics; I absurdly thought the Vice President and President held positions of power. |
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#177 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 8,394
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Uh, right here.
It's more of a flex on federal supremacy. This is just US style political jockeying. There's more to it than what you read in Huffington Post headlines. You didn't?!?! ![]() All of the sudden you believe politicians? Wow. You are gullible |
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#178 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,747
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Story from last year on amateur abortion provider services:
https://story.californiasunday.com/abortion-providers |
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#180 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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Interesting news on Roe as the Supreme Court declines to hear Alabama's challenge to its uber-restrictive proposals being banned by lower courts. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-...-idUSKCN1TT22D
In the ruling comes a chilling note from Justice Thomas, that will no doubt breathe further life into Red State attempts to outlaw abortion:
Quote:
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#181 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,747
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-- August Pamplona |
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#182 |
Neo-Post-Retro-Revivalist
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: The Emerald City
Posts: 16,201
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That and the fact that SCOTUS has ruled that gerrymandering is legal. White Evangelical voters turned out in record numbers in 2016, 81%, up from a previous high of around 64%, and all for Trump. With Roe v. Wade and quite likely another seat on the bench up for grabs, the Dems need someone pretty damned charismatic and motivating to get the votes needed to prevent another four years of Trump. With Biden currently leading in the primary run-up... yeah, no. We're screwed. |
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#183 |
Graduate Poster
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#184 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#185 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 59,410
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Gone are the days when Roe v Wade was considered settled law. Not that it should ever have been considered settled law. So I guess the best thing to do is appreciate it lasting as long as it did, and pragmatically getting on with the Great Work now that the era has ended.
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#186 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,879
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Pot is federally illegal and states ignore that. Hell I work at a place that grows and sells it and I have a badge from the police department that says I'm legal to do so. They also ignore laws about illegal immigration and declare themselves sanctuary states. Seems like states can do whatever they want nowadays. But ya, Republicans are frickin' weird when it comes to appeasing the religious right. As if they all live like Jesus and go home and pray really hard for a better world ![]() |
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#187 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#188 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 7,051
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Huff-Po Op-Ed Boilerplate!! Next!!
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#189 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,033
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Roe might be a goner.
But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States. |
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"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips |
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#190 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 27,086
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I see that I voted for "Before 31 December 2020" in the poll.
It looks like it probably won't be overturned before then. I don't know if there is any direct challenge to Roe that could possibly make it before the Supreme Court before the end of the year. However, the "Before 31 December 2022" option is now looking like a very real possibility. Regardless of who is elected, assuming Trump gets his nominee confirmed. I'm still not totally sure that it's a done deal though, even though both Trump and McConnell have signaled that they plan to fill the seat ASAP. If 4 GOP senators vote no, (and of course all Democrats too) then Trump won't be able to fill the seat. But boy are they going to be under a lot of pressure to go along. |
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#191 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
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#192 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,033
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__________________
"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips |
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#193 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 40,456
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It's my understanding that Roe v Wade succeeded because the Texas anti-abortion laws breached the 14th Amendment.
It's also my understanding that the 14th Amendment is an antiquated mess. http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/education/a...ts_usconst.htm Section 2 reads: "Section 2. Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age,* and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State." Now, being the annoyingly eternal optimist that I am, I have an idea that there might be new laws set in place with precedents that are actually better than the Roe v Wade decision and less subject to the removal of a woman's bodily autonomy. |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#194 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,203
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never mind....
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#195 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 34,156
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#196 |
The Clarity Is Devastating
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Betwixt
Posts: 19,020
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The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion. To which the blue states respond by strengthening medical privacy laws to make it illegal (if it's not already) to provide any information or cooperate with any investigation of whether an abortion was performed. To which the Federal government responds with threats of funding cuts. And so it goes. |
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A zømbie once bit my sister... |
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#197 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,886
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There's already the case of the crazy Texan rep who wanted to use the death penalty for attempting to do just that.
I said when Trump was elected it looked like a case of USA and ISIS having a contest to see who can turn the clock back furthest. USA seems to be taking it pretty seriously. |
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#198 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 34,156
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#199 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,203
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#200 |
Disorder of Kilopi
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: State of Flux
Posts: 16,856
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Aside: Bad idea, actually. Move a few jobs that require an education into, say, five pure Red states, and you can swing the electoral college toward civilized policies. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas could all be swung with little effort. The alternative is "By 2040, two-thirds of Americans will be represented by 30 percent of the Senate"
Time to invade them there backwaters and teach 'em some modrin notions, by golly, or it'll be pitchforks and lynch mobs for government. |
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