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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction thread , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 20 18.35%
Before 31 December 2022 27 24.77%
Before 31 December 2024 9 8.26%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 16 14.68%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 37 33.94%
Voters: 109. You may not vote on this poll

Closed Thread
Old 21st May 2022, 04:56 PM   #1961
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
It's the trolley problem, in part. Lack of action (not donating bone marrow) is seen as more morally acceptable than taking an action (getting an abortion).
You're taking an action either way with the trolley problem (flipping a switch vs. pushing fatso off the bridge). The difference in intuitions probably comes from a greater sense of involvement.

There is something to the idea that people view omission and commission differently, but there's also something to the idea that we shouldn't. There are plenty of examples where we see omission leading to death as unacceptably negligent (caring for children is an obvious one).

Personally, I don't see much moral difference between killing someone and not saving them when you can. Much has been made in this thread about the fact that a fetus is "uniquely" dependent on its mother, but why is that relevant? What is it about the fact that other people could donate a kidney (but generally don't, and certainly not in sufficient numbers to meet the need) that frees those of us who can from the obligation to do so?
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Old 22nd May 2022, 07:13 AM   #1962
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Do you happen to have any data on the number of abortions performed every year, on patients who did not understand how they got pregnant?
I suspect it is not a case of "I did not know sex leads to babies" and more a case of people having wrong information about birth control. (E.g. I didn't think you needed birth control the first time, this used McDonald hamburger wrapper can be used as a makeshift condom, etc)

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Old 22nd May 2022, 12:31 PM   #1963
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I suspect it is not a case of "I did not know sex leads to babies" and more a case of people having wrong information about birth control. (E.g. I didn't think you needed birth control the first time, this used McDonald hamburger wrapper can be used as a makeshift condom, etc)

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Okay, so do you have any data on that?
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Old 22nd May 2022, 12:38 PM   #1964
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Oh, how these discussions evolve.. keeps me coming back.
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Old 22nd May 2022, 12:54 PM   #1965
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Originally Posted by mumblethrax View Post
You're taking an action either way with the trolley problem (flipping a switch vs. pushing fatso off the bridge). The difference in intuitions probably comes from a greater sense of involvement.

There is something to the idea that people view omission and commission differently, but there's also something to the idea that we shouldn't. There are plenty of examples where we see omission leading to death as unacceptably negligent (caring for children is an obvious one).

Personally, I don't see much moral difference between killing someone and not saving them when you can. Much has been made in this thread about the fact that a fetus is "uniquely" dependent on its mother, but why is that relevant? What is it about the fact that other people could donate a kidney (but generally don't, and certainly not in sufficient numbers to meet the need) that frees those of us who can from the obligation to do so?
There's a version of the trolley problem in which 1 victim dies if you throw the railway track switch, and multiple victims dies if you don't throw the switch (IIRC). That's the first one outlined at Wikipedia.
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Old 22nd May 2022, 03:54 PM   #1966
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
There's a version of the trolley problem in which 1 victim dies if you throw the railway track switch, and multiple victims dies if you don't throw the switch (IIRC). That's the first one outlined at Wikipedia.
Right. And people overwhelmingly feel that throwing the switch is the right thing to do when surveyed. Meaning the problem doesn't really have much to do with omission vs. commission.
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Old 22nd May 2022, 05:06 PM   #1967
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Originally Posted by mumblethrax View Post
Right. And people overwhelmingly feel that throwing the switch is the right thing to do when surveyed. Meaning the problem doesn't really have much to do with omission vs. commission.
Except for those who are not in the 90% who would take the action to save more people. But point taken.
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Old 22nd May 2022, 05:42 PM   #1968
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Okay, so do you have any data on that?
You're either being deliberately disingenuous or outright trolling.

We know from decades of experience across multiple countries and continents that the best way to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies is education and access to birth control.
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Old 23rd May 2022, 06:40 AM   #1969
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You're either being deliberately disingenuous or outright trolling.

We know from decades of experience across multiple countries and continents that the best way to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies is education and access to birth control.
There's also a connection between abortion restrictions and increased maternal mortality around childbirth. Of course, correlation does not imply causation & the causality here is more likely that the same "pro-life" forces that capture state governments to lead to increasing abortion restrictions are also hostile toward the provision of other types of health care for women.

https://www.salon.com/2021/04/19/the-link-between-americas-rising-maternal-mortality-rates-and-abortion/:

Quote:
The authors of the Contraception paper stressed to Salon that it's not as simple as women dying because they wanted an abortion and couldn't get one, though there is strong evidence that women in this situation suffer worse health outcomes than women who are able to abort unwanted pregnancies. It's also likely that, as the paper explains, "states that restrict abortion may have broader hostility towards women's health."

Dr. Amy Addante, an OB-GYN and co-author of the paper, explained to Salon that "they are not prioritizing things that have been demonstrated to lower maternal mortality." Instead of "improving access to care, not just, obstetrics care, but contraceptive care," Addante noted, the legislatures are "really prioritizing passing anti-abortion legislation."

Indeed, the same legislatures that are keen on gutting abortion access are also happy to make birth control harder to get, even though, as Addante noted, "unplanned pregnancies are at increased risk of adverse outcomes." In Texas, for instance, the anti-abortion legislature has also spent years slashing family planning programs, and even redirected funds that used to go to birth control services to shady anti-contraception groups. Texas also happens to be one of the states that has rising maternal mortality rates.

As Dr. Hoofnagle pointed out, restrictions on abortion close down clinics that were part of the larger "safety net" offering affordable services like birth control and other reproductive health care. For instance, the Donald Trump administration cut funding to 900 reproductive health care clinics, using the fact that those clinics acknowledge that abortion is legitimate health care as an excuse. Similar assaults on abortion access have shuttered Planned Parenthood and other low-cost clinics across the country.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.contraception.2021.03.018
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Old 24th May 2022, 06:48 AM   #1970
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I suspect it is not a case of "I did not know sex leads to babies" and more a case of people having wrong information about birth control. (E.g. I didn't think you needed birth control the first time, this used McDonald hamburger wrapper can be used as a makeshift condom, etc)

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Also the demystifying of sex. Having out in the open can help teens make better choices, understand the emotional impact, etc. Being clear about the necessity of consent and discussion of same rather than the coercive behavior we've seen as normal would do a whole heap of good.
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Old 24th May 2022, 08:40 AM   #1971
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
Quote:
Here's an interesting angle...

From: Yahoo News
Republican Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt on Sunday hinted at retribution for Indigenous Oklahomans should doctors readily perform abortions on tribal lands if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
Well, I guess that is one way for Indians to get back at the white man. Kill them in the womb when nobody else will? Kind of creepy implications to that, tbh.
How would they be "getting back" at the white man? They would be providing a service that the majority of the population thinks should be available. Rather than being "creepy", they'd be seen as heros.
Quote:
Also, is abortion law more relaxed or more stringent on reservations than what we see now, generally?
The article suggests that in most states, tribal lands have the right to decide what laws to enforce and what ones not to enforce.
Quote:
Like, what would be their motivation to become a massive abortion hub?
Motivation?

How about being seen as heros by a huge segment of the population (i.e. the ones who don't get their legal/moral guidance from people who actually executed people for which craft?) So much for "noble savage"... they would be seen as more enlightened than the average red-state voter.

How about the ability to use infrastructure created for abortion services to also be used for general health care within their own population?

How about doing it because its the morally right thing to do?
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Old 24th May 2022, 08:54 AM   #1972
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Republican governor: "Ooops, we went to far".

from: CNN
Arkansas' near-total abortion ban should be "revisited" to provide exceptions for instances of rape or incest should the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, the state's Republican governor (Asa Hutchinson) said...Signed in March 2021 by Hutchinson, Arkansas' abortion ban would go into effect if Roe is reversed. The law would ban providers from performing abortions "except to save the life of a pregnant woman in a medical emergency" and makes no exceptions for instances of rape, incest or fetal anomalies.

This is a sad reminder about just how much republicans are scumbags. I had a tiny bit of sympathy for Hutchinson because he seen as an anti-Trumper. But here is proof that even when a republican disavows Trump, they cannot be trusted to do the right thing.

I have absolutely no respect of sympathy for Hutchinson here. I suspect his sympathy for rape/incest victims is false, and he is really only interested in trying to appear less extreme for political purposes. Hutchinson was under no real pressure to sign the bill as presented... he could have vetoed it and challenged the legislature to come back with a bill that contains the exceptions he claims to favor. And there was no rush to get the law passed.... it was a trigger law (i.e. wouldn't have come into effect immediately anyways) so they had time to get it "right". But he signed it, and now fears political backlash.

I hope he is reminded ever time he campaigns about how he signed a law that forces rape victims to carry the fetus to term.
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Old 24th May 2022, 09:03 AM   #1973
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wrong thread.

Last edited by Bob001; 24th May 2022 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 26th May 2022, 12:21 AM   #1974
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George Carlin on the anti-abortion evil*:

Warning NSFW
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

I heard about this on Jon Stewart's podcast. It did not disappoint.


*For lack of a better word.
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Old 26th May 2022, 05:54 AM   #1975
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I have no idea why this came to mind recently*, but given that this decision is putting unenumerated rights created by court decisions into question, does this mean the precedent created by the wrongly decided DC v Heller is also available for review and possibly being overturned?

Interesting.


* Clearly, I know exactly why
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Old 27th May 2022, 08:25 PM   #1976
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Above the Law notes another attempt at Cancel Culture. (No, I'm not posting in the wrong thread.)
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Old 28th May 2022, 03:42 AM   #1977
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Above the Law notes another attempt at Cancel Culture. (No, I'm not posting in the wrong thread.)
Seems like a problem to have a judge, let alone a justice, on anyone’s payroll outside of their government salary.
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Old 28th May 2022, 05:41 PM   #1978
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Old research being brought back to life (light).

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades
Quote:
Abstract

Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion— a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.
Here's the full paper: pdf from a link in the paper in case it doesn't open for you.

There was some criticism of it which the authors acknowledged and corrected. It didn't change the conclusions.


Then there is this study:
Abortion access tends to lower child poverty rates, economists say


And this:
The Turnaway Study: What The Research Says About Abortion
Quote:
For answers, we turned to Dr. Diana Greene Foster, the lead researcher on the interdisciplinary team behind The Turnaway Study. For over a decade, she and her fellow researchers followed just under a thousand women who sought an abortion across 21 states. These data may give us insight into pregnant people's lives in a post Roe v. Wade United States.
The rest is an interview on audio only.

More on the above study's findings
Quote:
The study finds that many of the common claims about the detrimental effects on women’s health of having an abortion are not supported by evidence. For example, women who have an abortion are not more likely than those denied the procedure to have depression, anxiety, or suicidal ideation. We find that 95% of women report that having the abortion was the right decision for them over five years after the procedure.

The Turnaway Study does find serious consequences of being denied a wanted abortion on women’s health and wellbeing. Women denied a wanted abortion who have to carry an unwanted pregnancy to term have four times greater odds of living below the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). ...

In addition, women denied abortion are:
More likely to experience serious complications from the end of pregnancy including eclampsia and death.
More likely to stay tethered to abusive partners.
More likely to suffer anxiety and loss of self-esteem in the short term after being denied abortion.
Less likely to have aspirational life plans for the coming year.
More likely to experience poor physical health for years after the pregnancy, including chronic pain and gestational hypertension.
The study also finds that being denied abortion has serious implications for the children born of unwanted pregnancy, as well as for the existing children in the family.
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Old 29th May 2022, 11:44 AM   #1979
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I read about that possible effect, and there may be something to it... but I've also heard the same drop in crime attributed to efforts to remove lead and other toxins from indoor environments paying off a generation later. I wonder which has the greater impact?
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Old 29th May 2022, 04:23 PM   #1980
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I can hear the Republicans chortling with glee from here as they dictate what women may and may not do with their bodies.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oklah...b0edd2d01310f7

But hey, there is an upside - more white kids, making it harder for the dagos, spics, coons and ragheads to take over.
Don't think you've really done the math on this one. Oklahomans who can afford to take a week or two off in Kansas or Colorado will be fine, so the law will disproportionately affect economically marginalized groups (e.g. Latin American immigrants to south OKC).
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Old 29th May 2022, 07:17 PM   #1981
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Another study:

NPR: Do restrictive abortion laws actually reduce abortion? A global map offers insights
Quote:
[difficult to measure when illegal abortions are hidden] Nevertheless, for the past two decades scientists at the World Health Organization and the Guttmacher Institute have been developing tools to estimate abortion rates around the globe. Both institutions support abortion rights for people worldwide. This past February, they published, for the first time, abortion rates for nearly every country. And they've also updated their analysis looking at how abortion rates vary across regions of the world – and whether the legality of the procedure is associated with those rates.
Findings:
Quote:
In countries where abortion is broadly legal, there are between 36 and 47 abortions performed annually per 1,000 women, ages 15 to 49. And what about in countries where abortions are prohibited altogether? "In these countries, there are between 31 and 51 abortions annually per 1,000 women, on average," Bearak says.
So very little difference. And most certainly making abortions illegal is not the best way to actually reduce the number of abortions.

But the anti-choice people have heard that. They ignore the facts. They are bent on passing laws that hurt women but make the anti-abortion people feel good.
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Old 29th May 2022, 08:40 PM   #1982
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It is more important to them to punish women and their doctors for daring, than to actually reduce abortions. Not too different from people that want to punish criminals more than they want to reduce crime.
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Old 29th May 2022, 09:29 PM   #1983
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
It is more important to them to punish women and their doctors for daring, than to actually reduce abortions. Not too different from people that want to punish criminals more than they want to reduce crime.
No, just no. I don't think that is comparable at all. Sorry, maybe your intent was different than how that analogy sounds.

Of course if you are talking about funding Head Start and other preschool programs, helping people get out of poverty and whatnot, then OK, that is a good analogy.
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Old 30th May 2022, 12:19 PM   #1984
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
No, just no. I don't think that is comparable at all. Sorry, maybe your intent was different than how that analogy sounds.

Of course if you are talking about funding Head Start and other preschool programs, helping people get out of poverty and whatnot, then OK, that is a good analogy.
I'm not sure where we're disagreeing here. I think that is what I mean.
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Old 30th May 2022, 12:55 PM   #1985
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
I'm not sure where we're disagreeing here. I think that is what I mean.
My bad. I wrote the second paragraph after I thought more about it. We don't disagree.
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Old 31st May 2022, 07:29 AM   #1986
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Cool
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Old 7th June 2022, 11:30 AM   #1987
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This is a made up case but this it is something that will happen.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...705597440.html

Quote:
A 20-year-old patient presents to your ER with vomiting. They tell you they drank pennyroyal tea to induce an abortion because they did not have access to any safe/legal options.

A brief thread on ☠️PENNYROYAL TOXICITY☠️ and its management 🧵:
Pennyroyal (Mentha pulegium) is a plant that has a pleasant mintlike🍬 odor. It has been used historically as an abortifacient for centuries. The plant can be concentrated into an oil called pennyroyal oil. The plant, and especially the oil, contain the toxin ☠️PULEGONE☠️.

PULEGONE gets metabolized by the body to form toxins (e.g., menthofuran) that cause CENTRILOBULAR HEPATIC NECROSIS (tylenol toxicity also does this). Studies have shown that pulegone can also cause lung necrosis🫁and can interfere with potassium channels in the heart❤️*🩹.

Symptoms of pennyroyal toxicity include vomiting🤮, abdominal pain, seizures, coma, liver failure, kidney failure, & death.😢

People have had symptoms with just 5mL of pennyroyal and death has been reported with 15mL. Toxicity has even been reported after drinking tea.🍵


Treatment is supportive care. Although there's no specific antidote, I believe it is reasonable to give these patients N-acetylcysteine (the tylenol antidote) because of the similarities to tylenol toxicity (centrilobular hepatic necrosis + glutathione depletion).


This case is made up BUT there are definitely cases of patients taking pennyroyal to induce abortion. Given the current political climate and abundance of medical misinformation out there (see pic below), we need to be prepared for anything so that we can best treat our patients.

]


Roe v Wade must not be overturned. I fear that if it is, we will see a rise in unsafe abortions that will lead to people getting hurt/dying.

Further reading: Goldfrank's Toxicologic Emergencies 11th edition, PMID 1686249, 7157374, 8909490, 2891472, 22004607, 8633832
This is not going to be pre Roe v. Wade levels of bad but people will die because of the Dobbs decision.
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Old 7th June 2022, 05:14 PM   #1988
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Quote:
Roe v Wade must not be overturned. I fear that if it is, we will see a rise in unsafe abortions that will lead to people getting hurt/dying.

The irony of this statement is off the charts.
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Old 7th June 2022, 05:42 PM   #1989
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
This is a made up case but this it is something that will happen.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...705597440.html



This is not going to be pre Roe v. Wade levels of bad but people will die because of the Dobbs decision.
Pro lifers think people are dying all the time right now. Easy enough to solve the problem by defining them as not people, though. But that usually leads to monstrosity.
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Old 7th June 2022, 09:56 PM   #1990
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
The irony of this statement is off the charts.
It continues to escape your understanding: if the woman dies, say it with me, the fetus has no viability.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 7th June 2022 at 09:57 PM.
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Old 7th June 2022, 10:14 PM   #1991
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
It continues to escape your understanding: if the woman dies, say it with me, the fetus has no viability.
not with that attitude it doesn't.
the fetus needs to pull itself up by its bootstraps, not depend on government handouts.
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Old 7th June 2022, 10:51 PM   #1992
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
not with that attitude it doesn't.
the fetus needs to pull itself up by its bootstraps, not depend on government handouts.
I really shouldn't have laughed, but satire is so hard to separate from reality these days, it's laugh or cry.
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Old 10th June 2022, 12:11 AM   #1993
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Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry View Post
I really shouldn't have laughed, but satire is so hard to separate from reality these days, it's laugh or cry.

Well said. I'm still hoping it was just a nightmare.
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Old 15th June 2022, 08:47 AM   #1994
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The map from this article is a horror. It will get worse by turning into a federal ban if Republicans grab power, though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-06-14/if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned-texas-abortion-ban-is-new-reality-for-us

Quote:
Belle’s ability to access care came down to chance, timing and money. About one in three women aren’t even aware they’re pregnant before six weeks, meaning the clock runs out before they know it’s started.


In the same city, Jane, a student from Honduras in her late 20s, had more stacked against her. Texas law requires at least two appointments with the same physician, 24 hours apart, to get an abortion. Taking that time would have meant losing her job — plus she didn’t have the money. Jane would end up breaking state law by getting a friend to mail her abortion medication. She terminated her pregnancy just after six weeks.


Should the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade in coming weeks, as expected, Belle and Jane’s experiences are a harbinger of what’s to come across the US. Twenty-six American states are set to ban or severely restrict abortion if the landmark legislation is toppled, making access to the procedure even more difficult than it already is for about 33 million women of child-bearing age. That will create logistical nightmares, long waits and increased health risks for those seeking abortions — even in less restrictive states — not to mention financial costs that can last for decades.


Roe v. Wade isn’t just about the right to an abortion: It's about economic security. Decades of research link abortion access to expanded roles for women around the world. Those forced to carry an unwanted pregnancy to term are four times as likely to fall into poverty, and face higher job losses and lower earnings potential. The US is poised to join only three other countries, Poland, El Salvador and Nicaragua, that have rolled back legal grounds for abortion in the last three decades, compared with nearly 60 nations that have liberalized laws.
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Old Yesterday, 07:26 AM   #1995
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It's happened.
Quote:
The Supreme Court has struck down Roe v. Wade, which for nearly 50 years has protected the right to abortion.

The decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health was the most anticipated of the court’s term, with political tension surrounding the fight over abortion erupting in May with the leak of a draft opinion indicating a majority of justices intended to end the long-standing precedent.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ortion-ruling/
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Old Yesterday, 07:31 AM   #1996
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post

Well, darn it. I really didn't think they would do it.

This should make for some exciting times ahead, on a state level.
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Old Yesterday, 07:34 AM   #1997
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/thread

**************
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Old Yesterday, 07:45 AM   #1998
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
Well, darn it. I really didn't think they would do it.

This should make for some exciting times ahead, on a state level.
Yeah, everyone is super shocked that conservatives lied. I know I'm completely blown away.

Er wait...no. I'm the opposite of that. I expect conservatives to lie about their intentions to get power and then abuse that power as soon as possible.
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Old Yesterday, 07:46 AM   #1999
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And now our resident conservatives can cream themselves dreaming of their future Gilead.
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Old Yesterday, 07:47 AM   #2000
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Just remember, kids:

1) It doesn’t matter who you vote for.
2) All politicians are corrupt.
3) They’re all the same.
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